I’m starting up this series again. I’m going to try to do at least 2 rounds before the 2010 election.
It will be an update of the previous series, which makes it a lot easier, as some things haven’t changed.
Going alphabetically, we have Alaska, Arizona and Arkansas
Summary:
Alaska should be safe for the Repubs, but you never know.
In Arizona only the 1st and 3rd look to be in play; in AZ-01, Kirkpatrick is a freshman Democrat in a Republican district; in AZ-03, a wingnut (Shadegg) may retire.
Arkansas was so weird in 2008 that I can’t really say, but I’m guessing there will be no switches.
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
and my previous diaries.
Alaska has one representative – A Republican.
Arizona has 8 representatives – 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans.
Arkansas has 4 representatives – 3 Democrats and 1 Republican.
District: AK-AL
Location You know where Alaska is!
Representative Don Young (R) possibly retiring
VoteView ranking 320/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 1973
2008 margin 50-45
2006 margin 57-40
2004 margin 71-22
Obama margin 2008 39-61
Bush margin 2004 61-36
Current opponents Ethan Berkowitz, who ran in 2008, may run again. Primary is also possible.
Demographics Alaska has a higher percentage of veterans than most places (16.4%, 30th place); it’s also about the 50th most Republican district, in national races.
Assessment Ordinarily, AK is about as Republican as it gets.
District: AZ-01
Location The northeastern three-quarters of the state, bordering UT and CO, with a chunk missing: map
Representative Ann Kirkpatrick(D)
VoteView ranking 270/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 2008
2008 margin 56-40 over Sydney Hay
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 44-54
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents Paul Gosar, maybe others
Demographics Poorer (median income is $33K, about 371st place; and more rural (44.5%, 363rd place) than most districts; 10th highest percentage of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (22.1% Native American)
Assessment Renzi (R) retired, and Kirkpatrick won fairly easily; I have little information here.
District: AZ-02 May retire
Location An oddly shaped district, it includes the northwest part of the state (bordering NV and UT) and a blob in the northern middle of the state, connected by a strand (this is tribal gerrymandering, separating two Native American groups), and another blob that reaches to the western suburbs of Phoenix: map
Representative Trent Franks (R)
VoteView ranking 442/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 2002
2008 margin 60-37 over John Thrasher
2006 margin 59-39
2004 margin 59-39
Obama margin 2008 38-61
Bush margin 2004 61-38
Current opponents None yet
Demographics Only 7 districts have more veterans.
Assessment A longshot, whether Franks retires or not. Franks is one of the most conservative members of the House.
District: AZ-03
Location North of Phoenix, including Paradise Valley and Carefree: map
Representative John Shadegg (R) May retire
VoteView ranking 443/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 1994
2008 margin 54-42 over Bob Lord
2006 margin 59-38
2004 margin 80-20 (against a Libertarian)
Obama margin 2008 42-57
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents Bob Lord may run again.
Demographics Not unusual on any of the statistics I track
Assessment This is Republican territory, but not overwhelmingly; Shadegg is a real rightwinger, but Lord lost in 2008.
District: AZ-04
Location Phoenix and Glendale: map
Representative Ed Pastor (D)
VoteView ranking 65/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 1991
2008 margin 72-21 over Don Karg
2006 margin 73-24
2004 margin 70-26
Obama margin 2008 66-33
Bush margin 2004 38-62
Current opponents None declared, Karg may run again.
Demographics Poor (median income = $31K, rank = 402) and with a huge Latino population (58%, rank = 20).
Assessment Safe
District: AZ-05
Location East and north of Phoenix, including Tempe: map
Representative Harry Mitchell (D)
VoteView ranking 230/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 2006
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 53-45 over David Schweikert.
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 47-52
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents David Schweikert, possibly others.
Demographics Relatively wealthy (median income = $52K, rank = 83), with a high proportion of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (7.2%, rank = 134; including 3.3% Asian and 1.8% Native American).
Assessment Mitchell beat Schweikert as a freshman, he should do so again.
District: AZ-06
Location In the southeastern part of AZ, but not bordering any other state: map
Representative Jeff Flake (R) May retire
VoteView ranking 445/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 2000
2008 margin 62-35 over Rebecca Schneider
2006 margin 75-25 (against a Libertarian)
2004 margin 79-21 (against a Libertarian)
Obama margin 2008 38-61
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Current opponents None declared, Schneider may run again.
Demographics Lots of veterans (15.8%, rank = 45) and Latinos (17.2%, rank = 105).
Assessment This is a longshot; Flake is crazy, and wins easily. A less crazy Repub might win more easily.
District: AZ-07
Location Southwestern AZ, bordering CA and Mexico: map
Representative Raul Grijalva (D)
VoteView ranking 24/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 2002
2008 margin 63-33 over John Sweeney
2006 margin 61-34
2004 margin 62-34
Obama margin 2008 57-42
Bush margin 2004 43-57
Current opponents Ruth McClung
Demographics Very poor (median income $31K, rank = 10) and mostly Latino (50.6%, rank = 23)
Assessment Safe
District: AZ-08
Location The southeast corner of AZ, bordering Mexico and NM: map
Representative Gabrielle Gifford (D)
VoteView ranking 231/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 2006
2008 margin 55-43 over Tim Bee
2006 margin 54-42
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 46-52
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Current opponents Jesse Kelly
Demographics Another district with a lot of veterans (19.1%, rank = 20)
Assessment Giffords has now won twice, and should be OK again.
District: AR-01
Location The northeast portion of AR, including Jonesboro, bordering MO, TN, and MS: map
Representative Marion Berry (D) May retire
VoteView ranking 183/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 1996
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin 67-33
Obama margin 2008 44-54
Bush margin 2004 52-47
Current opponents Rick Crawford
Demographics One of the most rural (55.5%, rank = 26) and poorest (median income = $29K, rank = 417) districts.
Assessment Berry, among the most conservative Democrats in the House, is probably safe if he runs; if not, this will be tough to hold.
District: AR-02
Location The middle of the state, including Little Rock: map
Representative Vic Snyder (D)
VoteView ranking 172/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 1996
2008 margin 77-23 against Deb McFarland (Green)
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin 58-42
Obama margin 2008 44-54
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Current opponents Possibly David Meeks
Demographics Not unusual on anything I track
Assessment Safe
District: AR-03
Location Northwestern AR, including Fayetteville, bordering MO and OK: map
Representative John Boozman (R) May retire
VoteView ranking 312/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 2001
2008 margin 78-22 against Abel Tomlinson (Green)
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin 59-38
Obama margin 2008 34-63
Bush margin 2004 62-36
Current opponents Larry Stricklin (needs a website)
Demographics Not unusual on anything I track
Assessment Longshot
District: AR-04
Location Southern AR bordering LA, TX and OK: map
Representative Mike Ross (D)
VoteView ranking 213/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 2000
2008 margin 86-14 against Joshua Drake (Green)
2006 margin 75-25
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 2008 39-58
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Poor (median income = $30K, rank = 124), Black (24.4%, rank = 66) and rural (55.3% rank = 28)
Assessment Safe
