Tag: Senate

On Monday, the Run Andrew Run draft blog informed us that Oklahoma Democratic state Senator Andrew Rice was very likely to challenge crumb-bum extraordinaire Jim Inhofe in the state's 2008 U.S. Senate election:

After a few weeks on the road in Oklahoma and a whirlwind of meetings in Washington, D.C., it now seems likely State Senator Andrew Rice will soon be filing papers to challenge U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe in the 2008 election.

Since winning election to the State Senate from a diverse, inner-OKC district, Rice has already proven to be a skilled consensus builder who gets results. He offers a stark contrast to the right-wing curmudgeon, Jim Inhofe.

Rice still says he will make a formal announcement after Labor Day but fundraising prospects have surpassed his expectations and sources close to him say he may be “all in” within the next 10 days. He has received encouragement on this site and in meetings throughout the state. We also hear the DSCC now views Rice as a potential upset challenger in the style of a Jim Webb or a Jon Tester.

Rice lost a brother in the World Trade Center on 9/11 and believes that Bush and Inhofe took their eye off the ball by waging war in Iraq while Al Quaeda rebuilt its global terror network. Inhofe, who once called global warming a “hoax,” boasts of being “one of the last true conservatives left in the Senate”.

Earlier today, DailyKos diarist gypsy shared with us a letter that Rice is apparently distributing to his friends and supporters:

Andrew Rice for U.S. Senate
P.O. Box 1027
Oklahoma City, OK  73102
                                                       August 2, 2007
Dear Friends,

While I have deliberated during these past few months, I have also encouraged other, more widely-known Democrats to take up the challenge.  To date, none has done so.  I have also thoroughly discussed the pros and cons of running with my wife Apple and my family.

Today, I want you to know that I have decided to run and that I intend to win!

I want you to be assured that I will not have to vacate my State Senate seat in order to run and I will continue to make myself accessible and accountable to my constituents in Senate District 46.

I believe Oklahomans deserve a choice for U.S. Senate in 2008.

Washington is paralyzed by partisan bickering, and Jim Inhofe may be one of the most partisan Senators of all.  He even boasts of being the “most conservative” Senator.  In contrast, as a member in the evenly divided Oklahoma Senate, I have proven that I can work with both Republicans and Democrats to get results for our state.

Divisive politics is harming our country.  That’s not my style.  I have already met many Oklahomans from across the state.  They tell me that Washington no longer listens to them.

This will be a tough and expensive race.  In fact, I will need to raise several million dollars just to compete against Inhofe and the National Republicans who will stop at nothing to help him extend his 40-year career in elective politics. […]

Despite having a very lackluster approval rating for a senior senator in his third term (the last time that SUSA polled this race in November, he was at a 46% approval), more prominent names in Oklahoma’s Democratic cycles (and there are a few, including Gov. Brad Henry and four-term Attorney General Drew Edmondson) have not jumped at the chance to challenge Inhofe.  Perhaps the hesitancy stems from watching former Democratic Rep. Brad Carson’s surprisingly wide loss (42%-53%) in the 2004 open seat race against Tom Coburn–a candidate who nicely complements Inhofe’s nuttiness in the Senate.

There’s no doubt that Rice, a young progressive with a compelling biography, will face a tough climb in the state, especially in a Presidential year when Duncan Hunter carries the state by a 30-point margin (kidding).  Still, Inhofe is older, he has a tendency to say stupid shit, and the dynamic of a fresh face versus a doddery loon could be fun to watch, given a reasonable amount of funding in Rice’s campaign coffers.

With Jeff Merkley in Oregon and now Andrew Rice in Oklahoma, 2008’s Senate races are beginning to take more shape as we approach the fall.

On the web: Andrew Rice for Oklahoma (I’m assuming that this will be updated once Rice makes his official announcement)

If Bob Novak is correct, then John Sununu must be looking for a new pair of pants. The Prince of Darkness is reporting that Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen is very likely to enter the Senate race.

New Hampshire: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) and her husband are telling supporters that she there is about a 70 percent chance that she will run for Senate against Sen. John Sununu (R). There is no need for her to move too quickly, since the state is currently consumed with presidential politics, and she already has universal name recognition there.

I hope she announces soon so the other canddiates can decide what to do. Until Shaheen confirms this herself, I wil continue to support Steve Marchand. Either way, New Hampshire is looking blue in 2008.

From SurveyUSA (registered voters; 07/30/07, 02/14/07 in parens):

Norm Coleman (R): 49 (57)
Al Franken (DFL): 42 (35)
Undecided: 9

Norm Coleman (R): 48 (57)
Mike Ciresi (DFL): 42 (34)
Undecided: 11

Norm Coleman (R): 49
Jim Cohen (DFL): 37
Undecided: 14
MoE: ±4%

What a tumble for Smilin’ Norm since February.  Coleman, who has enjoyed strong (but hardly stellar) approval ratings for much of the past two years, now has a net negative approval rating for the first time in 27 months of SUSA’s tracking history (48% disapprove, 43% approve).  The key here is that he can’t crack 50% against a candidate with very little name recognition: activist Jim Cohen.  (Seriously: who?)

There’s been quite a bit of skepticism (from myself included, I’ll admit), that Norm Coleman may be able to shape-shift his way out of the jaws of defeat while not facing a “top tier” Democratic challenger.  With voters still feeling frustrated over the Iraq debacle, even Smilin’ Norm may not be able to escape the anvil of the thoroughly disastrous Bush legacy.

(Hat tip: Taegan Goddard)

Has the DSCC found its candidate in Oregon?  According to the AP, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley is almost ready to enter the race against Republican Senator Gordon Smith:

Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley plans to file notice with the Federal Election Commission by Aug. 1 that he'll be running for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Republican Gordon Smith, two sources close to the campaign told The Associated Press Tuesday.

Merkley is on vacation in Central Oregon with his family this week, and wants to consult with them one last time before making the final, firm decision to challenge Smith, according to a strategist who has been advising Merkley.

“He could come back and say, 'We've decided that we are just not ready for this,” the strategist said. “I strongly believe that is not going to happen.”

The DSCC's wooing campaign, including favorable internal polls and face time with freshmen Senators, apparently paid off:

Merkley has met with many of the freshmen Democratic senators elected in 2006, including Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, all of whom encouraged him to run, sources said.

He's also been encouraged by recent internal polling, which has shown him within striking distance of the far-better-known Smith, who already has $3.5 million stockpiled for the race. National Democrats, who say Smith is one of their top three or four targets in 2008, have pledged to Merkley that he'll be “financially competitive,” and will likely pay for television ads to be in heavy rotation.

Meanwhile, activist and attorney Steve Novick, the only official challenger in the race so far, released a statement proving that he's a real class act:

Novick, though, said he would “welcome Jeff to the race, and look forward to a series of joint appearances around the state, where each of us will make the case for why Gordon needs to be replaced.”

How refreshing it is to hear a candidate press on undeterred, continuing to make their case for change while pointedly not whining about being “muscled out” of the race by “DC insiders”.  Rock on, Steve.

(H/T: Blue Oregon) 

From Pol Watchers:

Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo said he intends to form an exploratory committee later today in preparation for a possible challenge to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in 2008.

“I am keeping my options open; I am excited about gathering the facts and doing the ground work on this important election,” Stumbo said in an email sent to reporters. “It is time we remind Mitch McConnell that he represents Kentucky not George Bush.”

Stumbo, a Democrat, said he decided to explore entering the race last week after watching McConnell, R-Ky., lead Republicans in an effort to block an up or down vote related to the Iraq War.

“The American People deserve better, the families of Kentucky deserve better, most of all, our troops deserve better,” Stumbo said in a statement.

Stumbo, who ran unsuccessfully for lieutenant governor this spring on a slate with Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford, said he doesn’t want to interfere with ongoing fund-raising efforts for statewide offices. However, he will proceed to raise money from out-of-state donors or close family and friends before the Nov. 6 election.

“With McConnell’s overwhelming war chest, we must start now,” he said.

McConnell’s re-election campaign took in $1.25 million between April 1 and June 30 and has $5.7 million in the bank heading into next year’s election.

It remains to be seen whether or not Charlie Owen, a businessman and unsuccessful candidate for the House, Senate and Lt. Governor in elections past, will run.  Owen has been making noises about running against McConnell for months, including a recent discussion with Harry Reid and DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer.  In Owen’s favor, he is considerably wealthy and could at least partially self-fund his Senate campaign.  Against him, if elected, he would be 70 years old by the time he’d be sworn-in–a pretty ripe age for a freshman Senator.

Any nominee against McConnell will have to be prepared to get dragged through the mud.  Hitting McConnell on his reckless support of the Bush agenda is a good place to start, though.

(Hat-tip: Ditch Mitch)

On Friday, Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post published his ranking of the top ten Senate seats most likely to change hands next year:

1. Colorado (R)
2. New Hampshire (R)
3. Louisiana (D)
4. Maine (R)
5. Minnesota (R)
6. Virginia (R)
7. Oregon (R)
8. Nebraska (R)
9. South Dakota (D)
10. Kentucky (R)

Not a bad list for Democrats at all, but somehow I imagine SSP readers coming up with a slightly different analysis.  So: I turn the floor over to you.  How would you rank the top ten Senate races in order of those seats most likely to flip control in November 2008?  (And, if you feel inclined, please state your rationale.) Would states like Alaska, New Mexico, or Texas make it into your top ten?  Of course, there are many variables left unknown: retirements and challenger quality, for instance.  So you’re going to have to break out those crystal balls.

For a full list of 2008’s Senate races, see the DSCC or the 2008 Race Tracker.

A new WMUR/CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows Republican Senator John Sununu, a desperately out-of-touch enabler of the Bush Administration, performing badly in a series of hypothetical Senate match-ups:

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 54
John E. Sununu (R): 38

Steve Marchand (D): 38
John E. Sununu (R): 42

Katrina Swett (D): 39
John E. Sununu (R): 43

Jay Buckey (D): 28
John E. Sununu (R): 44

MoE: ± 4.3%

You can view the full polling memo in PDF format here.  While it is yet another poll showing Shaheen with a commanding lead over the floundering incumbent, challengers Swett and Marchand have a lot to be pleased about with this poll, too.  Despite having much smaller profiles than Shaheen (a former Governor), Sununu is mired in the low-40s: extremely dangerous territory for an incumbent to be.  Whether Shaheen mounts a bid or not (and I’d still be surprised if she didn’t, at this point), Sununu has set course for a world of hurt next year.

A big hat-tip to Dean over at Blue Hampshire.

(If you’ve got any other Q2 numbers, post them in the comments. – promoted by James L.)

[Originally posted today at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Q2 Fundraising: Second quarter fundraising figures are beginning to trickle in.  The Hill reports: Thad Cochran (R-MS) dropped to $275,000; Katrina Swett (D-NH) raised “about” $700,000; Jon Bruning (R-NE) took in over $720,000; Mike Ciresi (D-MN) raised over $735,000; Steve Marchand (D-NH) brought in about $100,000; Steve Novick (D-OR) took in $190,000; and, recovering Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) neared a goal of $600,000.  UNO Dems reminds us that “Bob Kerrey’s still got about $400,000 cash on hand from his old Senate campaign account.”  Norm Coleman (R-MN) raised around $1.5 million.  Larry LaRocco (D-ID) raised about $80,000.

Also: John Warner prepares us for another notoriously low fundraising quarter.  (Retirement announcement on the way?)

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

2008 could be a record year for unexpected Republican primaries. Whether or not strong contenders emerge, Republican primaries are, of course, expected in states from South Dakota to New Jersey, states with Democratic Senate incumbents but a handful (or more) of ambitious Republicans itching to take their shots. And, of course, there will be notable Democratic primaries ranging from Minnesota to Georgia. But the number of unexpected potential Republican primaries for Senate in 2008 is running high.

There are a number of reasons for this. One reason, illustrated more clearly in the Republican Presidential primary, is general discontent by Republican voters of Republican candidates and officials.  Another reason is that Republicans are particularly divided over the issue of immigration reform. Another reason could be that, in many races, the incumbent Republican simply isn’t conservative enough for the base.  Though several of these states with unexpected potential Republican primaries are traditionally red states, the emergence of a viable Democratic challenger in many of these states makes the possibility of a primary all the more daunting for Republicans.

(Much more below the fold.)

Lack of Leadership

Kentucky: Many elements of the conservative base are growingly unhappy with Mitch McConnell’s helming of Senate Republicans, and none have been more vocal than the conservative blogosphere across the country, many of whom have focused on their discontent with McConnell’s support for Bush’s bipartisan immigration reform attempts.  Further, in Kentucky, 1995 GOP gubernatorial nominee Larry Forgy, a loyalist to corrupt incumbent Governor Ernie Fletcher, has hinted that he would consider or support a primary challenge to McConnell if he felt McConnell did not do enough to help Fletcher’s embattled re-election bid.  While McConnell enjoys a hefty bankroll, the power of his political machine has diminished as demonstrated by Anne Northup’s gubernatorial primary defeat to Ernie Fletcher.  If a Republican primary challenger sapped significant resources of McConnell’s, he could find himself very vulnerable to a viable Democrat, say either 2003 Lt. Gov. nominee Charlie Owen or state Attorney General Greg Stumbo.

Immigration Reform

South Carolina: Primarily driven by anger over Lindsey Graham’s support for immigration reform, the South Carolina conservative netroots have begun voicing their displeasure with Graham and desire for a primary challenger.  Dump Lindsey.org and Dump Lindsey Graham express South Carolina conservatives’ preference for a replacement for Graham.  As Hotline’s Blogometer reported:

A new project launched by conservative bloggers promises a primary challenge for any GOP Senator who votes for the [immigration reform] proposal. The most prominent in that field? None other than McCain supporter Lindsay Graham (R-SC). So far, there have been rumblings of a primary challenge for Graham but no candidate yet. If the revived immigration plan comes up to a vote, will Graham’s yea or ney be the triggering mechanism?

This project is called The Payback Project and it seems to have successfully spooked Saxby Chambliss of Georgia into distancing himself from the immigration reform legislation.  If Graham continues his support for the immigration reform legislation, expect talk of a primary to intensify.  After that, Democrats still need to come through with a viable Senate candidate.

Not “Conservative” Enough

Oregon: For more than a decade, Gordon Smith has been Oregon’s only statewide Republican.  He has achieved this by presenting himself as a moderate who can voice Oregon’s concerns to the Republican leadership in the White House and Congress.  But with the Republican brand inreasingly tarnished, and with Smith’s back-and-forth on Iraq demonstrating his lack of integrity, he is coming off as too far to the right for Oregon moderates but also too fiscally irresponsible for conservatives.  As such, 1998 GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Sizemore has hinted that he would consider a primary challenge to Smith.  While Democrats have had a difficult time recruiting a top-tier challenger for Smith, the job would be considerably easier if a Republican primary challenger pulled Smith to the right and sapped significant resources.

Minnesota: Norm Coleman finds himself in a similar situation to Gordon Smith, having to maintain moderate credibility to ensure a necessary breadth of support.  Minnesota will have no shortage of Democratic candidates itching to take Coleman on, be it a famous satirist, an attorney who slew Big Tobacco, a Nobel Laureate, and so on.  It would help the eventual Democratic nominee if Coleman was pulled to the right and had resources sapped by a primary challenger.  Enter Joe Repya, a military veteran and former advisor to Coleman who is considering entering the race.  Despite Repya’s ideological position to the right of the GOP, his apparent sincerity and straightforwardness would offer a damaging foil for the political opportunist Coleman and severely weaken his character before entering the general election, if he wins the primary, that is.

Retirements

Colorado: Senator Wayne Allard has retired and former Rep. Bob Schaffer appears to be the presumptive Republican Senate nominee for 2008.  But enough rumblings keep occuring suggesting that a bloc of the CO-GOP is not convinced Schaffer is a viable candidate against Democratic Congressman Mark Udall.  As such, we could still see a CO-GOP primary, leaving the eventual Republican nominee worse for the wear.

Nebraska: There will be a Republican primary in Nebraska.  The only question is whether or not Chuck Hagel will be involved.  If he is, Hagel will likely still see opposition from state Attorney General Jon Bruning, whose campaign has highlighted Hagel’s lack of support for the Bush administration on Iraq, and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub.  If Hagel does not run for re-election, expect those two candidates plus businessman Tony Raimondo and who knows how many others might consider a bid for an open seat.  This would not be as notable a scenario if it wasn’t for the fact that two prominent Nebraska Democrats were considering Senate bids: Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and former Senator Bob Kerrey.  As it seems unlikely that there would be a Democratic primary, whichever Democrat steps up will be at full strength to await a battle-bruised, resource-diminished Republican.

Idaho: If Larry Craig doesn’t retire, than this paragraph is moot.  However, if I had to make a wager, I’d bet on a Craig retirement.  Should Craig retire, Idaho’s GOP Lt. Gov. Jim Risch has been drooling to enter the Senate race and GOP Rep. Mike Simpson has at times expressed interest.  While Idaho is just about as red a state as there is, the ID-Dems have put up their strongest Senate candidate in years in former Congressman Larry LaRocco.  Should Craig retire and a rough Republican primary politically injury the eventual Republican nominee, Democrats would have their best opportunity in years for a Senate pickup here.

Ethics Problems

New Mexico: Pete Domenici’s role in the Attorney Purge scandal has been widely reported and its impact on Domenici’s approval rating has been observed.  With Domenici’s approval bottoming out, for the moment, around 50%, he is still awaiting the results of the Senate Ethics Committee’s investigation.  Should findings or political fallout result in a Domenici retirement or resignation, we could very well see a Republican primary in New Mexico to replace Domenici.  Though far-right GOP Rep. Steve Pearce would be the frontrunner, a less far-right Republican might see an opening for a challenge.  Meanwhile, the prospect of an open seat could entice Democratic Congressman Tom Udall or another top-tier Democrat to enter the race.

Alaska: As Ted Stevens gets more deeply embroiled in FBI investigations surrounding renovations to his home and his relationship with the corrupt VECO Corporation, coupled with Stevens advanced age, declining poll numbers, and increased interest from Democratic Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, Stevens could yet opt for retirement (if the FBI’s investigation doesn’t turn up something sooner that might force Stevens from the Senate), leaving Alaska wide open for a Republican Senate primary.

With the NRSC’s fundraising being well eclipsed by the DSCC, and with 21 Republican incumbents to protect compared with 12 Democrats, Republican Senate resources will be spread awfully thin in 2008.  The prospect of all these primaries, sapping already sparse resources, looms large over Republicans hoping to minimize losses in 2008 following a majority-losing 2006.

[Cross-posted on DailyKos and MyDD.]

Greetings to the national Netroots.  I’m Steve Marchand and I’m running for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire to challenge John Sununu in 2008.

I’m writing today because I want to extend the dialogue I’ve begun with our New Hampshire Netroots to the national level.  As a longtime reader of national blogs like DailyKos, MyDD and Swing State Project, I value the open forum you’ve created, a forum that enables some of the most productive progressive dialogue in America today.

I’m running for U.S. Senate because we need a change in our nation’s direction. In my recent New Hampshire Democratic State Convention speech, I spoke about my experience and my vision for America.  You can watch the video of that speech on my website.

More below the fold

In my speech, I said what I strongly believe: we need to end the Iraq War right now.  We need to end it because it was fought under false pretenses and has been conducted with reckless leadership by the Bush Administration.

I applaud those members of Congress (including New Hampshire’s own Rep. Paul Hodes and Rep. Carol Shea-Porter) that stood up to the administration and refused to issue them a blank check for this war with a NO vote on the recent Iraq funding bill.  We need to see real withdrawal progress–right now–or we need to stop funding failed policies.

There are other battles, however, that we also must not lose sight of.  We need to guarantee affordable, quality healthcare coverage for every American, rich or poor.  As someone who has lived through the consequences of the national healthcare crisis, I understand what lack of coverage can mean.  Let me explain a bit more.

I grew up on the working-class West Side of Manchester, New Hampshire.  My father, a carpenter, and my mother, a millworker, came to this country from Quebec to build a better life for their children.  We didn’t have much, but more than anyone, they helped me understand the value and the power of hard work.

In the early 1990’s, however, New Hampshire’s economy was hit hard and our housing market crashed.  My father was left with a home that he couldn’t sell.  My family went without income for an entire year.  In this time of crisis, my parents did what millions of Americans have been forced to do: they dropped their expensive health insurance so that they could afford to feed their family.

And then, in her late thirties, my mother suffered a heart attack.

We were lucky; she recovered and is still well today.  But my Mom and Dad were forced to declare bankruptcy just to keep their home. These are the consequences of not having healthcare coverage when you need it most.

So when John Sununu says that we need to “stop complaining about healthcare,” well, I dare him to tell that to my parents and the millions of Americans without healthcare coverage living paycheck to paycheck.

We also need a Senator who knows that global warming is a problem and that we need real solutions to it–right now.  As Mayor of Portsmouth, New Hampshire, I’ve fought to make sure that our city is taking important, meaningful steps to become more green.  We aren’t waiting for the federal government to take the lead.  We’ve built the only Leadership in Environmental and Energy Design (LEED)–certified public building in New Hampshire, our new public library.  We’ve converted our city fleet to biodiesel.  And we’ve begun energy audits of all public buildings so we can make real changes to our energy use. 

The best part is, these changes in Portsmouth are saving taxpayers money.  Indeed, I’ve gained a statewide reputation for earning the trust of taxpayers by delivering value for their tax dollars.  We’ve shown that you can be fiscally responsible and socially progressive at the same time.  Those are values that I will take with me to the U.S. Senate.

And finally, as the recent Supreme Court decision shows, we cannot take Roe v. Wade for granted.  As the only 100% pro-choice candidate in this race, Democrat or Republican, I will always defend a woman’s right to make her own choices about her own body.

I look forward to being actively engaged with you here and in our New Hampshire blogs.  I appreciate your consideration, welcome your feedback, and encourage you to learn more about my campaign at my website, www.stevemarchand.com.  Together, we can bring real change to the U.S. Senate.