SSP Daily Digest: 1/11

Redistricting Contest: A reminder – if you haven’t sent in your .DRF.XML file to Jeff, please do so ASAP – jeffmd [at] swingstateproject [dot] com. Please be sure to include your SSP username and a link to your diary. Thanks! (D)

AR-Sen: Alleged United States Senator Blanche Lincoln is whinging that actually doing her job in December cost her $300,000 in fundraising receipts. This is probably her way of saying her numbers will be lighter than expected this quarter. Why on earth would you go public with this, though? This is not exactly the kind of message you want to communicate to the public – or your opponents. (D)

CA-Sen: A lot of Republicans seemed dismayed by Carla Fiorina’s suggestions a few months ago that she wasn’t going to be dipping into her personal money in order to fund her Senate bid – I mean, that was the whole point of her running, wasn’t it? At any rate, she’s just reversed course, with her latest finance report, which reveals that she loaned her campaign $2.5 million. Having burned through most of her outside donations, that leaves her with $2.7 million on hand.

FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Charlie Crist’s message discipline seems to be gotten completely unglued, as he searches for the just-right pitch that’s moderate enough and yet conservative enough. Today, he’s acknowledging support for the stimulus package and “being nice” to Barack Obama, and not apologizing for either one. Meanwhile, there’s still that persistent rumor out there involving Crist bailing on the Senate race and going back to another term as Governor. That’s not happening if GOP AG Bill McCollum has anything to say about it; he says he won’t stand down for Crist.

MA-Sen: Everyone’s still milling around waiting for that rumored close Boston Herald poll, but in the meantime, a new Democratic internal poll floated to the surface this morning, and it seems to give some credence to that Boston Globe/UNH poll that gave a solid 15-point margin to Democratic AG Martha Coakley. The internal, conducted by Mark Mellman’s firm, gives Coakley a 50-36 lead over Republican state Sen. Scott Brown, with Libertarian candidate Joe Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy clan) pulling in a surprisingly-high 6 (which may be coming out of Brown’s share). If Brown has internals showing the race a dead heat like he claims, now would be the time for him to lay them on the table. Also today comes word that Barack Obama has no plans to campaign for Coakley, although I don’t know whether to interpret that as a sign of Democratic confidence, or of Obama not wanting to risk political capital on something that’s less than a slam dunk.

ND-Sen: Gov. John Hoeven had said he needed a few weeks to get some stuff out of the way before saying anything official about the Senate race, but it looks like the stuff was more easily cleared away than anticipated: he’s now expected to announce his candidacy at an appearance at a GOP district convention in Bismarck tonight.  

NY-Sen-B: Republican Rep. Peter King announced, for something like the third or fourth time, that he is no longer considering running for the Senate, and instead will run for another term in NY-03. Stay tuned for next month, when King will at some point remember that he hasn’t been on cable news for a while and will reveal that he’s considering a run for the Senate. Meanwhile, the political establishment is continuing to take seriously the possibility of a Harold Ford Jr. primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand, going all the way up to the White House, which today confirmed that it will back Gillibrand over Ford. Ford, meanwhile, is doing some serious remodeling of his image to better comport with New York codes: he’s now done a complete 180 on gay marriage, which he’s now for, and on abortion, where he claims that when he said he was pro-life, it was to “take back” the term from its right-wing appropriators. Finally, the Republicans will have to look elsewhere than ex-Rep. Susan Molinari for their nominee; after a brief flirtation, Molinari (who’s making big money consulting and probably doesn’t want the pay cut) just declined.

UT-Sen: This should come as no surprise, but the NRSC, tasked with defending incumbents, confirmed that it’s supporting Bob Bennett in his re-election bid against several right-wing primary challengers. The Club for Growth has painted a bullseye on Bennett’s back, although they haven’t settled on which challenger to support.

CO-Gov: Denver mayor John Hickenlooper hasn’t leaped as quickly into the Governor’s race (following the withdrawal of Bill Ritter and demurral of Ken Salazar) as many had expected; he’s saying he’ll make a decision within the next five days, so stay tuned. Former House speaker Andrew Romanoff, currently an invisible presence in the Senate primary, has also been consulting with Democratic officials about getting in, although it sounds like he’d do so only if Hickenlooper didn’t. Another rumor getting bandied about: Romanoff joining forces and running as Hickenlooper’s Lt. Gov. candidate; at any rate, it sounds like Romanoff is looking for an exit from the Senate race. Hickenlooper’s decision may get helped along by a certain Barack Obama, who apparently called Hickenlooper to encourage him to get into the race (Hickenlooper says that doesn’t change his decision, though).

KS-Gov: Kansas Democrats are getting way, way down the totem pole as they look for a gubernatorial candidate, with Tom Wiggans’ recent withdrawal. Board of Regents chair Jill Docking, whose name frequently appears as Democrats’ Plan B in a variety of races, said she won’t run, and now the fickle finger seems to be pointing at Lawrence-area state Sen. Marci Francisco. (H/t Campaign Diaries.)

MA-Gov: The Boston Globe/UNH poll of the Senate race also asked about 2010’s gubernatorial race, and it’s more confirmation for the apparent trend that Dem incumbent Deval Patrick seems bolstered by the presence of state Treasurer Tim Cahill’s independent bid (despite Patrick’s 39/50 favorables and Cahill’s 39/15). Rather than Cahill dominating the middle, as he may have expected, instead he just winds up splitting the anti-Patrick vote, leaving the race’s GOPers a distant third. A Patrick/Cahill/Charlie Baker ballot plays out 30-23-19, while Patrick/Cahill/Christy Mihos is a similar 32-23-19.

CA-11: The GOP hasn’t quite found a top-tier candidate to take on Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney, the only Golden State Dem who’s even remotely vulnerable. But they might get something of an upgrade with the newly-announced candidacy of David Harmer, the Republican attorney who acquitted himself fairly well in the special election last year in much bluer CA-10. He can bring residual name rec and fundraising connections to the race, and one of the race’s lesser lights, former San Jose city councilor Larry Pegram, is already moving to get out of the race. Still, Harmer doesn’t live in the district, and he exposes himself to the same carpetbagging charges he brought to his race against John Garamendi in the 10th.

CA-19: Kevin McCarthy looks a little flaky after this whole incident: it was reported last Friday that the Bakersfield-area Republican was sticking with his earlier endorsement of state Sen. Jeff Denham in the 19th while admitting a bit of a man-crush on ex-Rep. Richard Pombo. But now the Fresno Bee is reporting that McCarthy has gone all the way, spurned Denham, and is now endorsing Pombo.

HI-01: The local political establishment weighed in heavily on the side of state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa in the upcoming special election to replace resigning Rep. Neil Abercrombie. The decision of Sen. Daniel Akaka to endorse Hanabusa over his nemesis Ed Case should be no surprise, but this was accompanied by endorsements from the state’s other Senator, Daniel Inouye, and a variety of labor leaders as well. Case does have one endorsement which he’s touting in ads, though, from ex-Governor Ben Cayetano.

NY-23: Doug Hoffman won’t have the GOP primary field to himself in the 23rd after all. He’ll face a fight with a fellow conservative, albeit more of a team player: Assemblyman Will Barclay, who passed on a run in the special election in the 23rd, says he’s begun exploring the general election race.

OK-02: Rep. Dan Boren can always be counted on to say something douchey, and today’s no exception. He tells the Tulsa World (in an article titled “Boren: Democrats May Lose Congress”) that Dems are likely to lose seats in Congress, and that’s good news for Oklahoma and especially for him personally. “”In the 112th (Congress), I probably will have the most influence I have ever had, no matter who has the majority,” he says.

TN-08: It remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the race to succeed retiring Dem Rep. John Tanner, but the Republican primary just shrunk by one: computer consultant Donn Janes has announced that he’s going to run instead as a Tea Party-aligned independent. (J)

Mayors: That Rahm Emanuel-running-for-Chicago-mayor thing seemed to last a whole couple days. Emanuel yesterday praised Richard Daley and backed him for another term starting in 2011.

Florida: For all the general black clouds hanging over the Democrats regarding 2010, there’s always a lot of nuts-and-bolts numbers that somehow still look favorable, such as party committee fundraising and registration numbers. In Florida, both are actually advantage Team Blue, as the state Democratic party is sitting on $2.6 million cash on hand, $1 million more than state Republicans. Democrats have also built up their registration advantage over Republicans in Florida, to a margin of more than 800,000.

Tea Partiers: TPM has an interesting look at the civil war growing within the Tea Party movement, a microcosm of the larger civil war within the Republican party. Front and center today is the big teabaggers’ convention in Nashville (with Sarah Palin as keynoter), which is too expensive for many of the teabagging rank and file to attend, leading some to question whether there’s a usurpation of the movement by the Republicans’ Beltway professional class. Meanwhile, Think Progress has some new additions to its ongoing compendium of teabagger primary challenges to establishment GOPers.

SSP Daily Digest: 1/6

FL-Sen: Here’s one late-30-something, telegenic conservative helping out another: WI-01’s Rep. Paul Ryan just endorsed Marco Rubio in the Senate primary. Ryan (who’s actually been getting some dark-horse presidential buzz lately) may in fact be the real beneficiary here, since it may direct some of Rubio’s healthy glow among the teabag set in Ryan’s direction, bolstering his future credentials. Speaking of the teabaggers, despite having claimed the scalp of Florida GOP chair and key Charlie Crist ally Jim Greer, they still aren’t happy with the annointment of John Thrasher as the new chair; apparently he too is insufficiently crazy, or at least part of the same backroom process. Finally, take this with a huge hunk o’ salt, but ex-Rep. Mark Foley is highlighting a rumor on his Facebook page (yes, Mark Foley is on Facebook, and I’m not eager to think about what else might be on his page) that Charlie Crist is on the precipice of pulling his FL-Sen bid altogether and running for another term as Governor instead.

NY-Sen-B: Lots of walking-things-back going on in New York’s Senate race. Republican Rep. Peter King is now saying he’s “leaning against” a Senate bid. Taegan Goddard rightly invokes both Mario Cuomo and Hamlet in ridiculing King’s protracted public vacillations. And ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. also may be dialing things down too, in regards to a possible primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand. An operative working with Ford is now saying that Ford is “unlikely to take the plunge,” and seemed more interested in “creating buzz” for himself. (Why am I not surprised?)

AZ-Gov: The GOP primary field in Arizona is getting even more scrambled, with the entry of Some Dude who claims to be bringing $2.1 million to the table with him. Owen Buz Mills’ campaign report was the first anyone has seemingly heard of him. He’s a member of the National Rifle Association’s board of directors, and owner of a company called Gunsite (which operates a 2,000 acre weapons training site). Current Gov. Jan Brewer said she wouldn’t be deterred by Mills’ presence, as did former state regent John Munger (who probably has more to lose by Mills’ entry, as he’s sort of the de facto non-Brewer for now, at least until or unless state Treasurer Dean Martin gets in the race).

CO-Gov: While much of the speculation, in the wake of Gov. Bill Ritter’s surprise decision not to seek another term, has focused on Denver mayor John Hickenlooper, or a switch from the Senate primary by former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff, there’s one other high-profile possibility: Interior Secretary, and former Senator, Ken Salazar. Salazar, however, is staying mum, for now. PPP’s Tom Jensen is skeptical of a Salazar candidacy, though, pointing out that Salazar didn’t have strong favorables (39/36 in late 2008) even before he joined the Obama administration, and Colorado has seen one of the biggest drops in Obama approvals of any state, making his time in the Cabinet something of an anchor for him.

CT-Gov: Three sort-of prominent local officials are all scoping out the already-crowded Governor’s race in the Nutmeg State. On the Dem side, the First Selectwoman of Simsbury, Mary Glassman, said she’ll seek the nomination (she was the 2006 Lt. Governor candidate). On the GOP side, Shelton mayor Mark Lauretti says he’s considering the race; he’s banking on his nearly 20 years of experience running the city, although he is currently the target of a federal corruption probe. (Although what Connecticut mayor isn’t?) Also, the Republican mayor of the much larger city of Danbury, Mark Boughton, says he’s reached a decision on whether or not to enter the race. The weird thing is, he doesn’t plan to let anyone know what that decision is for another month.

AL-02: Businessman Rick Barber made it official today: he’s launching a teabag-powered primary challenge to the NRCC-crowned establishment favorite, Montgomery city councilor Martha Roby. He owns several “billiards facilities” in the area, as well as organizing tea parties in his spare time. The primary winner will face freshman Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright.

AR-02: Another GOP establishment fave, former US Attorney Tim Griffin, just got bumped up a notch in the NRCC’s three-tiered fundraising pyramid [scheme]. He was promoted to “Contender,” leaving him just one step away from coveted “Young Gun” status.

CA-19: With a big three-way brawl already brewing in the GOP open seat primary between ex-Rep. Richard Pombo, state Sen. Jeff Denham, and former Fresno mayor Jim Patterson, ex-SoS and 2004 Senate race loser Bill Jones has decided to give the race a pass.

NJ-03: One possible alternative to Jon Runyan as the GOP nominee in the 3rd said “no thanks” yesterday. State Sen. Christopher Connors was apparently the first choice of the Ocean County Republican party; Runyan is the Burlington County party’s pick, so it remains to be seen whether Ocean County unites behind Runyan or pushes someone else (like Toms River city councilor Maurice Hill).

TN-08: The NRCC, based purely on their own fantasies, has been attempting to “gay bait” Dem Roy Herron. And of course, the tradmed has dutifully transcribed whatever bullshit the NRCC has spewed out. Funny, then, that the kid spokesbot responsible for this smear enjoys attending “GOB festivals.” No, Arrested Development fans, this has nothing to do with erstwhile ne’er-do-well George Oscar Bluth. Just click the link and John Aravosis will tell you all you need to know. (D)

VA-05: The teabagging right keeps coalescing behind businessman Laurence Verga as the Republican primary alternative to state Sen. Robert Hurt (who apparently voted in favor of a tax once)… and now Verga is getting the endorsement of one of their iconic figures: Samuel “Joe the Plumber” Wurzelbacher. Could a Chuck Norris endorsement be far behind?

UT-03, UT-Sen: Freshman Republican Rep. Jason Chaffetz is expected to announce today that he’ll run for another term in the House. He’s been occasionally associated with a potential primary challenge to Senator Bob Bennett, but has more recently said he’s likelier to seek re-election to the House.

WA-St. Sen.: This is getting way down in the weeds, but remember attorney Randy Gordon? He was briefly the leading Democratic candidate in the 2006 race in WA-08, before standing down in the primary in favor of a Camp Wellstone classmate with better fundraising chops: Darcy Burner. Well, it looks like he’s secured the temporary appointment to take over the vacant state Senate seat in the 41st LD, left vacant by Fred Jarrett’s move to become Deputy King Co. Executive; he should have a fairly easy time retaining this Dem-leaning seat based in suburban Bellevue.

Mayors: Here’s a wild rumor (with Sally Quinn as its source): ex-Rep. and current CoS Rahm Emanuel isn’t planning on a long-term stay in the White House. Emanuel is reportedly eyeing a run for Chicago mayor in 2011. Also on the mayoral front, Baltimore mayor Sheila Dixon is leaving office; she offered her resignation and an Alford plea on a count of perjury in order to settle a number of charges against her.

DCCC: Chris Van Hollen offered some boilerplate reassurances today that few, if any, Democratic retirements in the House are in the offing. He said there would be a “couple more,” if that. (With almost all the troublesome seats accounted for, that’s not a surprise; SC-05’s John Spratt seems to be the biggest question mark outstanding in a difficult seat.) (UPDATE: Ooops, I missed Spratt‘s re-election announcement over the holidays. So now I don’t know who’s vulnerable and unaccounted for.)

RNC: By now, readers should be familiar with the NRCC’s cash crunch, which severely hampers its ability to capitalize on recruiting successes and the favorable environment. But anyone thinking they might turn to the RNC for a bailout may be surprised to hear that the once-flush RNC is in almost equally dire shape. After a spending spree under Michael Steele’s leadership (to the tune of $90 million last year), the RNC is only sitting on $8.7 million in the bank. That’s down from $22.8 CoH at the start of Steele’s tenure. That’s the party of fiscal discipline at work for you, right there.

Oh, NRCC, You Wish You Were Like Rahm

Oh, this amused the hell out of me:

Republicans are getting inspiration on how to rebuild their party in the U.S. Congress from an unlikely source: White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel.

California Representative Kevin McCarthy, the chief recruiter for House Republicans, said he wants his party to select candidates based less on ideology and more on their chances of winning. The goal, he said, is to seek out prospects who are ethnically diverse, female, less partisan and even supportive of abortion rights. So far, these efforts are more concept than reality. (Emphasis added)

Ya think? The fact is, even if Kevin McCarthy truly meant it, and even if there weren’t legions of movement conservatives standing in his way, there just aren’t that many “moderate” Republicans out there worth recruiting. The GOP’s vaunted discipline has produced a pipeline filled mostly with Aaron Schocks – it’s pretty hard to be a Republican up-and-comer if you deviate from party orthodoxy. And what few moderates there are know that they’d be stuck in a deep minority and subject to endless arm-twisting. Why go to Congress when you’d have to start voting (much) more right-wing than you actually are?

I don’t want to sound too triumphalist here – we will face a number of tough challenges next year. But it is the Democrats who have always had the far larger tent. It’s our main weakness but also our key strength. It’s why we have dudes representing districts like ID-01 and TX-17 and UT-02. So as I say above, the GOP simply is not set up on an institutional level to ape our approach. But anyhow, good luck trying!

(Hat-tip: reader WC)

IL-05: A Detailed Look at the Special Election

(More phenomenal work from jeffmd – promoted by James L.)

If I lived a few miles south, I’d live smack in the middle of Illinois’ 5th Congressional District.

Given that 12 candidates were running in the election on Tuesday – and that Quigley won with no more than 25% of the vote, I wanted to take a detailed look at the results by precinct.

A few Saturdays ago, I was running errands in Ravenswood. As I rode the Brown Line south towards the Loop, I noticed a distinct pattern in yard (or perhaps more accurately, window) signs – each neighborhood had the majority of signs supporting one candidate. North-South, they roughly went O’Connor, then Fritchey, then Quigley, then Feigenholtz.

So using the results available from the Chicago BoE, I tried to see if these yard signs were actually reflective. I also look at if each candidate did better in the district (whether State House, County Commissioner, or City Ward) that they represented.

I only got around to analyzing results within the city of Chicago though. Illinois (go figure) establishes separate election authorities for the City of Chicago and Suburban Cook County, and the Cook Suburbs didn’t give me the requisite shapefiles to play with.

So, here’s the goody that I think we’re all waiting for: the winner by precinct (within the City of Chicago).

More maps and results below the flip.

Of course, this map doesn’t show what the magnitude of the win in each precinct was, so this is a map that does. The legend might be unclear, so a color in the first column of the box indicates a precinct won by a candidate with 0-20%. In the second column, 20-30%, etc.

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Grey indicates a tie in both maps. Just some quick qualitative comments: Wheelan’s 7 precincts all came in Lincoln Park – the most affluent neighborhood of Chicago. Feigenholtz’s strength was in Lakeview, especially in Chicago’s LGBT center along North Halsted. Fritchey did well in Rahm’s homebase of North Center, as well as some outlying precincts here and there. Forys did best in Portage Park – a predominantly Polish neighborhood, and O’Connor did well in his base in Lincoln Square. Quigley’s strongholds are harder to point out – some precincts in Albany Park and Irving Park in the center of the district, but also the sliver of Edgewater that isn’t in the 9th CD, and much of Wrigleyville and Lakeview beyond Belmont.

Just to recap, here were the results from the city of Chicago:



































Wheelan Feigenholtz Fritchey Forys Geoghegan Quigley O’Connor Other
5th CD 3,501 8,261 9,147 5,495 3,228 11,551 6,139 3,452
6.90% 16.27% 18.02% 10.82% 6.36% 22.75% 12.09% 6.80%

Overall, there are 486 precincts in the Chicago part of the district. Quigley won 153, Fritchey 98, Forys 90, Feigenholtz and O’Connor 57 each, and Wheelan 7. Additionally, 23 precincts were tied.

So sure, the maps are pretty and all, but what do they actually indicate? Well, let’s break it down by the various districts involved.

For those of you keeping score:

-Fritchey represents the 11th Legislative District; Feigenholtz represents the 12th.

-Quigley represents the 10th Cook County Commissioner District.

-O’Connor represents the 40th Ward of the City of Chicago.

So by LD first:

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Wheelan Feigenholtz Fritchey Forys Geoghegan Quigley O’Connor Other
11th LD 1,244 1,674 2,238 94 865 2,812 591 438
12.49% 16.81% 22.48% 0.94% 8.69% 28.24% 5.94% 4.40%
12th LD 652 2,587 440 74 413 1,916 184 238
10.02% 39.78% 6.77% 1.14% 6.35% 29.46% 2.83% 3.66%
Other LD 1,605 4,000 6,469 5,327 1,950 6,823 5,364 2,776
4.68% 11.66% 18.85% 15.52% 5.68% 19.88% 15.63% 8.09%

As you can see, Feigenholtz clearly had the ‘in-district’ effect – earning 40% within the 12th LD compared to 13% outside. She dominated here, winning 42 of 63 precincts, including half with 45%+.

The effect for Fritchey is less clear, he earned 22% within the 11th LD compared to 17% outside. He carried 26 of 91 precincts, compared to Quigley’s 48.

For Cook County Commission Districts:

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Wheelan Feigenholtz Fritchey Forys Geoghegan Quigley O’Connor Other
10th Commis. 1,296 3,577 1,089 235 795 3,477 1,876 508
10.08% 27.83% 8.47% 1.83% 6.19% 27.05% 14.60% 3.95%
Other Commis. 2,205 4,684 8,058 5,260 2,433 8,074 4,263 2,944
5.81% 12.35% 21.25% 13.87% 6.42% 21.29% 11.24% 7.76%

The effect for Quigley is of questionable magnitude as well. He got 27% inside the 10th Commis, compared to 21% outside. Precinct-wise, his numbers weren’t amazing either, winning 37 of 121 – compared to Fritchey’s 48. For those of you with fast math skills, that means Quigley won 30.5% of precincts within his district and 32% of those not. Go figure.

Incidentally, yes, the 10th Commissioner district is contiguous – it simply runs outside the 5th, so I did not display it here.



Lastly, by city ward:

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Wheelan Feigenholtz Fritchey Forys Geoghegan Quigley O’Connor Other
40th Ward 97 323 197 16 200 445 1,562 91
3.31% 11.02% 6.72% 0.55% 6.82% 15.18% 53.29% 3.10%
Other Wards 3,404 7,938 8,950 5,479 3,028 11,106 4,577 3,361
7.11% 16.59% 18.71% 11.45% 6.33% 23.21% 9.57% 7.03%

The ‘home district’ effect is clearest for 40th Ward Alderman O’Connor. He earned a stunning 53% within his ward, compared to 10% throughout the rest of the city. He swept 22 of 27 precincts as well. 12 of these 22 yielded 60%+ for him. Remnants of the machine? I’ll leave you to decide.

So was there a home district effect? Maybe. I think Quigley was able to win simply because he wasn’t limited to it. He was able to perform consistently both within and outside the 10th Commissioner district – enough to squeeze out a win.

If You Are Shopping for a Candidate, Ask Yourself These Questions

charlie

  1. What is the most important issue in this race, and who is most qualified to deal with it? I believe it’s the economy, and that I’m uniquely qualified to deal with economic issues. I teach public policy at the University of Chicago and wrote a book called Naked Economics: Undressing the Dismal Science that has been published in 10 languages. I’ve spent my entire adult life working on issues like education, health care, tax policy, and transportation.

  2. Why do we end up with so many corrupt politicians? Because we keep electing the same kind of people. Whenever we have a political opening – like this Congressional seat – we always go looking for a replacement in the same places, as if there is some kind of political farm league. But that means we usually end up with career politicians who have a powerful incentive to protect their careers.

     If you want a different outcome, elect a different kind of candidate. As I always say on the stump, “Chicago produced both Rod Blagojevich and Barack Obama-but only one of them taught at the University of Chicago. So stick with that model!”

  3. Can one representative really make a difference? Yes. In fact, the U.S. has a long history of academics who have become highly effective politicians (on both sides of the aisle): Paul Douglas; Daniel Patrick Moynihan; Paul Wellstone; Newt Gingrich; Hubert Humphrey; Phil Gramm; Woodrow Wilson. They were all professors before they went to Washington. And they all “punched above their weight” because they brought an intellectual heft to the job that they could put to work right away on important issues.

This is a great time for substance over politics, and that is exactly what I would like to bring to the job.

So tomorrow before you vote, ask yourself these questions. I think you’ll feel very comfortable that the answers begin with voting for me.

Sincerely,

Charlie

Charlie’s Thoughts on President Obama’s Housing Relief Plan

President Obama’s Homeowner Relief Plan is an important step towards resolving the current financial crisis. In particular, I support the key premises of the plan: 1) Preventing foreclosures will keep houses from being dumped onto the market, which drags down the value of neighboring properties and perpetuates the downward spiral in real estate prices; and 2) It is crucial to keep families in their homes in order to minimize the human toll of this serious economic downturn.

However, the President’s plan can be improved in a way that would accomplish both of those objectives while minimizing the cost to taxpayers and holding borrowers accountable for imprudent borrowing decisions. The government should place a lien on any property that is eligible for mortgage relief equal to the difference between the old and new mortgages. If the property is eventually sold at a profit, as is likely to happen with many of these properties when the real estate market eventually recovers, then taxpayers ought to recover some or all of the government funds that were used to keep homeowners in their homes during these difficult times.

As an example, the program might work like this in the 5th District:

A homeowner currently has a $200,000 mortgage on a home in Franklin Park that is now worth $180,000 and the payments are no longer affordable. The President’s plan would avert foreclosure by offering a new, more affordable $150,000 mortgage. However, this plan should also include a lien on that home for $50,000, which is the amount of taxpayer-funded relief offered to this homeowner.

If the property is eventually sold for $280,000, the government would receive $50,000 at the time of the sale. The property owner would still benefit from the appreciation in the value of the property; however, it is fair that the taxpayers be reimbursed for having averted foreclosure during this sharp downturn in the real estate market.

If a home does not appreciate in value before being sold, then the lien would not be exercised. Similarly, if a property appreciates only modestly, then only some percentage of the lien would be collected. The point of the program is simply to recover the cost of taxpayer assistance from the profits that would otherwise go to homeowners who have benefited from this government program.

President Obama’s plan is a crucial step towards stabilizing the housing market. This modification would reduce its total cost for taxpayers and impose a reasonable responsibility on the homeowners who take advantage of the mortgage relief.

Raise Taxes to Lower Taxes and Protect the Planet? It is possible – thank the Carbon Tax

The economic stimulus bill generated a lot of talk about taxes. As we work our way out of this economic mess, we need innovative, effective solutions to taxes – not just short term band-aids. We need to move in a new direction. Here’s a big idea: let’s phase in a carbon tax, to protect our planet and reward productive investments.

How does this work? Raise the cost of carbon-based fuels through some form of federal tax on carbon emissions; these new revenues should be fully or partially offset by cuts in the income, payroll, or corporate income taxes.

In other words, let’s tax the things we don’t want and use the revenues to reduce taxes and costs on inventors, investors and innovative new businesses in the development of alternative energy sources. By permanently cutting taxes on workers and investors, we can help the economy recover through growth and higher employment- and have a cleaner, greener environment.

It’s extraordinary that groups ranging from the Sierra Club to the American Enterprise Institute recognize that a carbon tax makes sense for America. If you are up for a good read, check out: http://www.brookings.edu/~/med…

And, to shamelessly plug my own writing on the topic, http://finance.yahoo.com/exper…

In addition, let’s ensure that the stimulus bill starts this process, by shifting the transportation funding formulas to increase the amount that is dedicated to mass transit. Historically, only 20% of federal funding goes to transit with the remaining 80% focused on automobile infrastructure. This is out of whack with the future.  By investing more in transit, and removing various administrative hurdles, we can create more sustainable communities throughout the nation.

I know that the transition to a carbon tax will not be easy, but our current path is reckless and short-sighted. It must change.

I’m running for Congress in the 5th District in Illinois, because more than at any other point in my lifetime, good policy truly matters. I’m an economics expert who can bring big ideas – and practical solutions – at a time this is needed most.

Our national and local economy is the single most important issue in this election. We’re all scared. We’ve lost jobs. We’ve watched our retirement and college savings shrink, or disappear. We put our trust in our financial system, and it robbed us. Congress must act to stop the downward spiral and- more importantly- take steps to make sure this can never happen again. The carbon tax is one tool in our toolbox that can fix our energy and environmental issues for the long term.

Upside Down?!

Hi! I’m Charlie Wheelan and I am running to fill Rahm Emanuel’s vacant congressional seat in the Illinois’ 5th Congressional District. I am an expert in economics and a public policy lecturer at the University of Chicago. I’m also the author of Naked Economics, a lay-persons guide to economics!

Last month, my “Underwater” TV ad caught the nation’s eye.  Today, I’m launching my second TV ad, “Upside Down.”

Check out the new ad at

This time, instead of being underwater, I’m dangling from my feet, literally UPSIDE DOWN!  Why?  Because I wanted to show that I understand how many people’s efforts to pay their mortgage, afford health care and college tuition costs have gone “bottom-up”.

This is an equal opportunity recession.  I’ve met people with buildings named after them who’ve lost half their net worth.  I’ve met middle-class parents who thought they’d saved four years of college tuition and now only have two.  I’ve met people who’ve lost jobs, or are really worried about that possibility.

If it takes something a bit crazy like hanging upside down to make folks sit up and take notice, I’m willing to do it.

You can see me in the ad holding a copy of my book Naked Economics while strapped in inversion boots and suspended from a bar.  Halfway through the television spot, gravity wins out; I finally plummet, like the economy.

The ad, which was shot in front of a blue screen, took more than three hours to tape and I was hanging upside down almost the whole time.  I felt like my eyes were going to pop out. It was much worse than having to submerge myself underwater. Still, it was worth every minute to show people that I am the best person to help get out of the economic struggles we are facing today.

Don’t forget – the special primary election for the Illinois Fifth District Congressional seat is March 3.

Sara Feigenholtz for IL-5

Soon Rep. Rahm “Rahmbo” Emanuel will be leaving his congressional seat vacant in order to become Barack Obama’s chief of staff.  Emanuel represents Illinois 5th District, which includes northern portions of Chicago as well as some suburbs west of the city. John Kerry won this district 67-23 in 2004, and Barack Obama certainly did much better than that.  Of course, Emanuel’s resignation will set up a special election sometime in the near future.

The general election will be uncompetitive, so this is an excellent chance to get a very progressive Democrat elected to this district.  That Democrat could be Rep. Sara Feigenholtz.  Feigenholtz was elected to the Illinois State House in 1995, and since then she has built a reputation as one of the most liberal members in the entire body.  

Yesterday Feigenholtz announced she is forming a campaign committee to explore a run for the 5th District.  Part of the e-mail to her supporters reads:

As you know, Congressman Rahm Emanuel will be resigning from the U.S. House of Representatives to serve in the Obama administration.  I believe this creates an opportunity for another progressive thinker, such as myself, to lead the 5th District. . . To let our dreams of a better tomorrow end with the November 4th election would be an affront to those very principles Americans were hoping to reclaim this year. . . I am asking you to believe in my capacity to lead once again, and embark upon this journey with me.

Let’s face it, Emanuel is not as progressive as he could be, especially not from such a strongly Democratic District.  Feigenholtz, on the other hand, is 100% Pro-Choice, Supports Gay Marriage, and is a solid progressive on every other issue.  

To my knowledge, Feigenholtz is the only announced candidate, but Emanuel hasn’t even resigned yet, and there is likely to be more.  There is no date yet set for the Special Primary or Election.  But if we rally around Feigenholtz early, we can make sure that a solid progressive represents this district.

On the Issues:

http://votesmart.org/npat.php?…

House Site

http://www.staterepsara.com/

Act Blue Page

http://www.actblue.com/contrib…