Tag: Rahm Emanuel

• AK-Sen: As it gets more and more apparent that victory isn’t going to come on the write-in-challenges front, the Joe Miller camp seems to be admitting as much. However, they aren’t preparing to concede, as they see one last ace in the hole: absentee ballots, which are still trickling in. The last to arrive (ahead of Wednesday’s deadline) will be the military overseas ballots, which Miller expects will break heavily in his favor (seeing as how many military members nearing the end of their commitment are probably looking forward to a profitable career on Miller’s paramilitary goon squad). With Lisa Murkowski’s lead holding at 40-35, though, it’s unclear whether military ballots would show up in sufficient numbers to turn the tide even if they broke widely for Miller.

• DE-Sen, WV-Sen: Congratulations today to Chris Coons and Joe Manchin, both of whom are being sworn into the Senate this afternoon for the lame-duck session. It’s also the first day on the job for Earl Ray Tomblin, who becomes the new West Virginia Governor in Manchin’s absence. If you’re wondering about Mark Kirk, he’ll be sworn in next week thanks to vagaries of Illinois law. (If I may be allowed a brief moment of alma mater pride, Coons appears to be the first Amherst alum elected to the Senate since the ill-fated Thomas Eagleton.)

• MA-Sen: You may remember a boomlet that peaked last week for Senate speculation concerning Setti Warren, the “rock star” mayor of Newton. Well, that’s over, as he’s now saying his “intent” is to finish his term, which runs through 2013. However, a different young up-and-coming mayor of one of the Bay State’s larger cities is now poking the Senate race with a stick: Will Flanagan, the 30-year-old mayor of the much more blue-collar Fall River, is gauging the race.

• TX-Sen: The Fix has a look at possible primary challengers to Kay Bailey Hutchison, who, with her bungled gubernatorial run and her TARP vote, seems to have painted a big target on her back aimed at Texas tea partiers looking for a promotion. Former SoS Roger Williams and former Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones are already in the race (dating back to when it was expected that KBH would be on her way to the Governor’s Mansion at this point), but the bigger names to watch are Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams. Dewhurst is establishment but has the personal wealth to get a foothold here, while Williams has no money but is the favorite of the tea party set. Dallas mayor Tom Leppert is also mentioned as a wild-card. One Dem who won’t be making the race is former Houston mayor Bill White, who in wake of his gubernatorial loss says he won’t pivot to a Senate race. That probably frees up the Dem Senate slot for former comptroller John Sharp, who was going to run in the hypothetical special election that never happened and already has a big stack of cash saved up for the race.

• CT-Gov: If you’re hearing zombie lies from Republican friends about the Connecticut gubernatorial race being stolen by the urban machines, here’s a handy debunking point: exit polls show that the huge falloff in votes in Bridgeport neatly tracks the statewide falloff in Dem crossover votes for the Republican candidate in general from 2006 (when the broadly-popular Jodi Rell ran) to 2010.

• KY-Gov: One more Republican to keep in mind as a potential challenger in next year’s off-year gubernatorial election: Jefferson County Clerk Bobbie Holsclaw. That’s kind of a big step up to Governor, so it seems like she might be starting with a high negotiating position with the party to try to worm her way into the SoS slot instead (assuming Trey Grayson follows through on plans to run for AG instead).

• NC-02, TX-27: Here are updates on two of our outstanding races: recounts have been officially approved in both of ’em. Six counties in the 27th will be recounted, per Solomon Ortiz’s request, as he trails by about 800. In the 2nd, the canvass was officially certified with Bobby Etheridge trailing by 1,489, but he’ll be pursuing a recount as allowed under state law. While neither of these prospects looks that hopeful, we can take some solace in that the likely victors, Blake Farenthold and Renee Elmers, are some of the most amateur-hour entrants into the new House and hopefully likely to help define the new face of the Republican Party.

• NY-29: Best wishes for a quick recovery to soon-to-be-sworn-in Tom Reed, who literally just arrived in Washington and was immediately sickened by it. He was diagnosed with a blood clot in his lungs and says he’ll be released in one or two days, ready to get to work.

• WA-01, WA-03: I’d hoped that Brian Baird was going to take his unique variety of douchiness to the private sector for good, but it looks like his strange retirement decision may have been an inspired case of district-shopping instead. He’s moving to Edmonds in Seattle’s northern suburbs, which just happens to be in the 1st District. Assuming that Jay Inslee follows through on his widely-known plans to run for Governor, lo and behold, the 1st will be an open seat in 2012. The 1st (which is a pretty safe district in its current configuration, and will probably keep similar lines in redistricting) has to be more appealing than the 3rd, which redistricting will probably move from a true swing district to a light-red one, as liberal Olympia will probably have to be exchanged for a Columbia Gorge-centered district that’s based in Vancouver but that runs east into conservative Yakima County. (Which, unfortunately, would be tailor-made for Jaime Herrera, who’s Latina but living in the Vancouver burbs, and will make her much harder to dislodge.) For more detail on Washington’s likely 10-district map, see here.

• NY-St. Sen.: Here’s an update on the three races that are holding New York State Senate control in the balance. Dem incumbent Craig Johnson trails by only 427, and seems to be gaining at a rapid clip as absentee votes get counted, so the trajectory indicates he might pull ahead by the end. Things seem more locked in with two more Dem incumbents, though: Suzi Oppenheimer leads by 504, while Antoine Thompson trails by 597. Wins by Johnson and Oppenheimer would set up a 31-31 tie.

• Chicago mayor: The election’s been over for two weeks, and it’s already time for the first new edition of SSP TV: Rahm Emanuel kicked off his mayoral bid with his first TV spot already. Rep. Danny Davis also made it official this weekend, launching his bid and dubbing himself the “grassroots” candidate. (He looks like he’ll be giving up his House seat only in the event that he wins the mayoral race.)

• DSCC: After some hopeful signs that Michael Bennet might be willing to take on the role of DSCC head, he said “no thanks” late Friday. At this point, Beltway pundits seem to think that the shortest straw has Patty Murray’s name on it.

• RGA: Texas Gov. Rick Perry signed on for another cycle at the helm of the Republican Governor’s Association. I’ve seen speculation that he’s doing it mostly to shut down rumors that he’s really running for President, although it should be a pretty sleepy gubernatorial cycle and he might be able to juggle both tasks (since most big states elect governors during the midterms, and only a few open seats loom… Indiana, North Carolina, and Washington may be the highest-profile races).

• Redistricting: The Wall Street Journal has a good overview of what to expect with redistricting, and they seem to come to the same conclusion that I have: that the downside for the GOP of their strong performance in Dem-held red districts is that it means there are a lot fewer opportunities to turf anyone out through aggressive gerrymandering, and instead their efforts are going to have to more defensive, oriented toward shoring up the deadwood that washed ashore. Meaning, of course, that predictions of another large redistricting-driven gain in the House for the GOP aren’t likely to come to pass, although it will still make it harder for the Dems to regain significant ground.

A couple articles are also out today dealing with the biggest redistricting prize of all, California, although whether it’s a prize or not has much to do with what happens with the newly-created (by Prop 20) congressional redistricting commission; this week, out of the pool of 36,000 applicants, 36 finalists for the commission’s citizen slots will be picked. Of particular interest is what exactly happens with the seats in northern Los Angeles’s San Fernando Valley, where there’s a push underway to get a Hispanic district. (Worth noting: CA-28 already has a Hispanic majority, although Howard Berman seems pretty primary-proof there, and there don’t seem to be enough parts and pieces elsewhere in the Valley to create another neatly-shaped one.)

• Demographics: Here’s a big surprise, on the demographic front: there are reports that there are 100,000 fewer Hispanics in Arizona than there were when SB 1070 passed. That may not have a big impact on voting behavior (since those emigrants are probably unlikely voters), but a big impact on redistricting, where the possibility of a third VRA district in Arizona looms. Or maybe not… since the census only cares where you were on April 1, much of that fleeing may not have happened yet at that point.

• Dave’s App: Exciting news from over in the diaries: version 2.0 of Dave’s Redistricting App is available. You can check out all the details at the link, but two major improvements including use of street maps (making urban work much easier) and ability to save JPGs. Redistricting is going to be one of Swing State Project’s main preoccupations over the next year, and Dave’s App is one of the best tools we have in our arsenal.

• AK-Sen: All signs are pointing to Lisa Murkowski winning this race, and joining Strom Thurmond in the won-a-Senate-write-in-race club. At the end of yesterday’s counting, which took us up to nearly half of all the write-in votes analyzed, the state Division of Elections is reporting that nearly 98% of all write-ins are being successfully counted for Murkowski. Even the rate of challenges, even if they were all successful (and few of them are), is inadequate for Joe Miller to make up all the needed ground (he’d need to shave off 12%, and isn’t even challenging at quite that rate). 45,132 write-ins have been analyzed so far, and only 1.52% have been successfully challenged by the Miller camp. Seemingly realizing the gap can’t be made up, the Miller camp, while still harping on the spelling issue and keeping that line of argument alive, is now turning to nebulous claims of voter fraud as their next line of attack, threatening a second potential lawsuit. His team is setting up a voter fraud hotline for people to report fraud, voter intimidation, and voter bullying. (Kind of a strange angle to explore, when you’re the campaign that has its own paramilitary goon force.)

• HI-Sen: The Republican bench in Hawaii basically begins and ends with outgoing Gov. Linda Lingle. As far as her running against octogenarian Dan Akaka in 2012, she says she’s going to take six months off from thinking about politics, and then give the race some “serious consideration” at that point.

• IN-Sen: Baron Hill is also looking for work in a few months, and he’s one of the biggest names on the Dems’ bench in Indiana. However, even with his potential choice of running for the Senate, for Governor, or his old seat in 2012, it sounds like he doesn’t plan on any of those.

• MO-Sen: Could we see a 2006 rematch in the 2012 Senate election in Missouri? Ex-Sen. Jim Talent seems to be prepping toward that, with GOP operatives saying he’s “furthest along” of all potential challengers to Claire McCaskill, who beat him in 2006. Other potential GOP names include ex-Treasurer Sarah Steelman, Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (who’s probably likelier to run for Governor in 2012), and Ann Wagner, wealthy person (former RNC vice-chair and Ambassador to Luxembourg, the kind of goodies doled out to itinerant rich donors) and former campaign manager to Roy Blunt.

• ND-Sen: Jeremy Jacobs lists a few possible challengers for Kent Conrad, who looks vulnerable after Republicans ran up the score in North Dakota this year. Mentioned are Jack Dalrymple (the Lt. Governor, who’s about to become Governor once John Hoeven resigns, although he may be likelier to run for a full term as Gov. in 2012), AG Wayne Stenehjem, and Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk.

• Chicago mayor: And here I thought I was done with having to laboriously type out “Alexi Giannoulias” every day, like I have for the last few years. The recently vanquished Senate candidate is now at least considering the idea of pivoting over to the Chicago mayoral race, presumably under the principle of striking while the iron is hot in terms of his name recognition and donor base. He’s getting urging from several anti-Rahm Emanuel aldermen. (UPDATE: OK, scratch that. A Giannoulias spokesperson now says no, he’s not running for mayor.)

• DSCC: I think we’ve gotten closer to getting someone willing to hold the burning bag of dog doo than we have so far: Harry Reid personally asked Michael Bennet to lead the DSCC next cycle, and Bennet “didn’t say yes and he didn’t say no.”

• DCCC: Dan Boren is moving the anti-Nancy Pelosi push to a new front: demanding that the position of DCCC chair be up for a true vote by the whole caucus, not a de facto appointment by leadership. He’s being seconded in the effort by Larry Kissell, of all people (the same guy who got $1.7 million in DCCC aid this cycle after stinking it up on the fundraising front, and may be worried that another Pelosi ally might cut bait with him next time and make him catch his own fish). It’s not clear who they’d rather see than likely chair Steve Israel, especially since they both had praise for departing chair Chris Van Hollen.

• Redistricting: Guess who’s leading the push for Utah to switch to a independent redistricting commission, instead of it being done by the heavily Republican legislator? Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson, who may figure he’ll be given an even worse version of UT-02 in 2012 than he currently has. (Interestingly, there’s the possibility that a commission might give him a worse district, though; it’s also possible that a GOP gerrymander might decide to concede a swing seat to him (probably the best Matheson could hope for) and go for three safe GOP seats, instead of risking a push for a 4-0 map.) Also on the redistricting front, here’s a good overview from Real Clear Politics’ Sean Trende, who goes state-by-state with possible outcomes.

• WATN?: Ashwin Madia (whom you probably remember for losing the MN-03 race in 2008) is taking over the helm for VoteVets for the time being while its current head, Jon Soltz, is deployed to Iraq. Also in the news is Andy Dillon, who lost the 2010 Dem gubernatorial primary after being termed-out as state House speaker. Turns out the centrist Dillon is crossing the aisle one last time: he just signed on as state Treasurer at Rick Snyder’s request (it’s an appointed position in Michigan).

• Money: When they write the tale of the 2010 election, the role of the Chamber of Commerce (and other third-party GOP backers, but especially the Chamber) will probably loom a lot larger in retrospect than it does right now. The Chamber spent $32 million, almost entirely on GOP candidates. The Fix also takes a look at self-funders, and calculates how much they spent per vote. The biggest fail was probably Linda McMahon, spending $97 per vote in a losing effort, outpacing Meg Whitman who spent only $57 per vote to lose by a similar margin (albeit for a much bigger price tag overall). Rick Scott spent “only” $29 per vote to win; the biggest bargain may have been Ron Johnson, who won spending only $7 per vote (although he did a lot of conventional fundraising too). In House races, Tom Ganley spent $29 per vote to lose ignominiously; the biggest spender was the victorious Scott Rigell in VA-02, at $30 per vote.

• Post-mortem: If you’re still feeling down about last week’s losses in the House and need some rationalization about it, here are a couple pieces that don’t really try to put a happy face on the results but still show how very predictable the whole thing was. Alan Abramowitz, certainly no mindless cheerleader for the Dems, points out some of the ways in which it was something of a mile-wide, inch-deep victory for the GOP. And while the teeth-gnashing that accompanies the graph is worth a read too, here’s a piece built around an amazing scatterplot from John Sides that shows how Democratic House candidate performances tracked presidential preferences district by district.

• Maps: If you’re tired of looking at glitzy, state-of-the-art political maps, here’s an amusing look back at the New York Times’ earliest attempts at mapping the nation’s political geography, going back as far as 1896. (As you might expect, their graphics capacity has evolved considerably.)

It’s been less than a week since Bill Brady conceded defeat to Governor Quinn, but nomination petitions for Mayor (and Aldermen) can be filed starting next Monday, November 15th, and due a week after that, November 22nd.

Last time we discussed this race, it seemed like everyone and their mother was considering running. But since then, the 800-pound-fuckin’ gorilla Rahm Emanuel has jumped in, and is taking up most of the oxygen in the room.

Many people have declared that they’re not running now, but notably:

• Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart is out.
  

• Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. is, well, otherwise occupied.
  

• Congressman Luis Gutierrez is staying put.
  

• Congressman Mike Quigley is a no.
  

• Daley critic 2nd Ward Alderman Bob Fioretti was originally in, but dropped out after announcing he has cancer.

So who’s actually in?

• RAAAAHM.
  

• IL-07 Rep. Danny Davis
  

• City Clerk Miguel Del Valle
  

• State Senator James Meeks
  

• Daley appointee-turned-critic Gery Chico
  

• Cook County Board of Review member Larry Rogers
  

• Former US Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, and possibly:
  

• Soon-to-be former US Senator Roland Burris

As the Trib suggests, this compressed timeframe might make it hard for any of the candidates to build a true ward-by-ward organization – and candidates may be relying on the aldermanic machines to turn out some votes. Plenty of endorsements have flown around…and can probably be shown visually (we’ll keep this updated as more endorsements roll out). Green for Emanuel, yellow for Chico, red for Del Valle, blue for Davis.

• AK-Sen: Wasn’t that Lisa Murkowski announcement about whether she was going to pursue a write-in bid supposed to be yesterday? It never materialized, but we did get some statements from local gadfly and Murkowski ally Andrew Halcro that make it sound pretty likely.

“It’s going to be the kind of campaign you should have seen in the primary,” said Andrew Halcro, an Alaska political consultant who is a longtime friend of the senator. “It’s going to be no-holds-barred, pedal-to-the-metal stuff.”

• DE-Sen: After putting out a public wish for real Sarah Palin backing instead of just a cryptic retweet, Christine O’Donnell finally got her wish yesterday. O’Donnell got added to the gigantic list of Mama Grizzlies yesterday during a Palin appearance on Sean Hannity’s show. The real question, though, is it too little too late? It might help raise some funds this weekend, but it smells a little like Palin’s 5 pm-on-Tuesday endorsement of “Angela McGowen.” Meanwhile, O’Donnell seems to be doing everything she can to dance right up to the edge of calling Castle gay without going over it: she just blasted his campaign tactics as “unmanly” and also telling him “get your man-pants on.”

• ME-Sen: PPP’s poll of Maine has some buried details that should lead to some soul-searching for Olympia Snowe, who could be headed down Arlen Specter Boulevard if the right-wing decides to wade into her 2012 GOP primary. (Or she might take the opportunity to retire.) Overall, she’s fairly popular at 50/40, but that’s based on 59/29 among Democrats. She’s only at 40/51 among Republicans, and by a 50-37 margin, Republicans say she really should be a Democrat. Susan Collins sports similar numbers, although she has until 2014 to deal with that, by which point the Tea Party thing may be a footnote in AP US History textbooks. PPP says they’ll have 2012 hypothetical Senate matchups out on Monday. (One other note: they find opinions on gay marriage basically unchanged since last November’s referendum: 43 in favor, 49 against.)

• NH-Sen: Once he got the Manchester Union-Leader’s backing, that led to a lot of speculation that Ovide Lamontagne (as he did in the 1996 GOP gubernatorial primary) would close fast. It looks like that’s happening: he’s out with an internal poll showing himself only 10 points behind Kelly Ayotte. He trails Ayotte 34-24, with Bill Binnie (considered the real threat to Ayotte until the last couple weeks) tied at 12 with Jim Bender. It’s very close to the Magellan poll that came out last week giving Ayotte a 13-point lead. I wonder if Lamontagne would actually be able to pull out the upset if the Tea Party Express had decided to weigh in here for Lamontagne, instead of in their likely-futile efforts in Delaware?

• NV-Sen: Ralston smash! The intrepid political reporter is on a rampage across the twittersphere today, after Sharron Angle previously said on Jon Ralston’s TV program “Face to Face” that she wanted to debate Harry Reid there, then arranged the debate, and then yesterday abruptly canceled the Oct. 21 shindig. The two will still meet in an Oct. 14 debate, which should be one of the most popcorn-worthy events of the year.

• OH-Sen: Who let the Big Dog out? Bill Clinton, who’ll be in Ohio soon shoring up Ted Strickland’s gubernatorial bid, will also hold a fundraiser on behalf of another long-time ally, Lee Fisher.

• MI-Gov: Another day, another poll showing the Michigan gubernatorial race looking DOA. The newest poll by the Glengariff Group for the Detroit News gives Republican Rick Snyder a 56-36 lead over Virg Bernero.

• VT-Gov: With the numbers having barely budged after the recount in the Democratic primary (the gap between Peter Shumlin and runner-up Doug Racine widened by 6 votes, all the way up to a whopping 203-vote margin), Racine conceded today. Shumlin, the state Senate president pro tem, will face GOP Lt. Governor Brian Dubie in the general.

• CO-04: I’m tempted to put this in the “good news” file, inasmuch as she isn’t getting blown out as conventional wisdom would assume: the Betsy Markey campaign rolled out an internal poll, from Bennett, Petts, and Normington, that shows her in a 38-38 tie with Republican Cory Gardner (with 7% going to assorted third-party candidates). However, feeling like you need to release your own internal that’s a tie doesn’t exactly seem like a big sign of confidence…

• IA-01, IA-02, IA-03: On the other hand, here’s a poll, considering the source, that’s pretty clear “good news” for Leonard Boswell. A poll for the conservative American Future Fund (who commissioned that avalanche of Whit Ayers polls), this time by Voter/Consumer Research, found Boswell leading Brad Zaun 48-39. That’s a complete reversal from Zaun’s couple of internals. Still, they have numbers from the 1st and 2nd that show that we need to keep at least one wary eye on these sleepy races: Bruce Braley leads Ben Lange 50-39 in the 1st, while David Loebsack leads Mariannette Miller-Meeks 47-39 in the 2nd (not far off from the one internal that MMM leaked).

• NH-01: This is interesting: the state Democratic party is out with two different mailers in the 1st, attacking Sean Mahoney. There’s just one catch… Mahoney isn’t the GOP nominee yet, and we won’t know if he is or not until Tuesday, when he faces off with ex-Manchester mayor Frank Guinta. It’s unclear whether they have info leading them to believe Mahoney has the nomination locked down, or if they’d trying to sandbag Mahoney pre-primary so that the heavily-baggage-laden Guinta (about whom the ads write themselves) wins.

• NY-13: With a lot of people in local GOP circles still holding ex-Rep. Vito Fossella in high esteem (despite his boo-hoo-funny fall from grace), this is one endorsement that may carry a lot of weight as we race toward the conclusion of the GOP primary in the 13th. Fossella gave his backing to Michael Allegretti. That sets up a showdown with the other big power behind the throne in this district: Staten Island borough president Guy Molinari is backing Michael Grimm.

• OK-02: If we have to worry about this race, geez, better start making camel reservations for our 40 years in the desert. On the other hand, it’s pretty clear that we don’t have to worry about this race. Dan Boren is out with an internal poll, via Myers Research, that gives a jumbo-sized 34-point lead over little-known GOPer Charles Thompson: 65-31.

• Mayors: In sharp contrast to yesterday’s We Ask America poll of the Chicago mayoral race, today’s Sun-Times poll finds Rahm Emanuel just one of the crowd, in high single digits. This poll finds Cook Co. Sheriff Tom Dart leading at 12, with state Sen. James Meeks at 10. Luis Gutierrez is at 9, Jesse Jackson Jr. is at 8, and Emanuel is at 7. “Don’t know” led the way at 35.

• DSCC: Jeremy Jacobs, the man who always seems to know the Size Of The Buy, is out with a helpful breakdown of where the DSCC has made its $18 million worth of reservations so far. Right now, it’s $1.6 million in Kentucky, $5.1 million in Missouri, $5.2 million in Pennsylvania, $4 million in Colorado, and $2 million in Washington.

• NRCC: The NRCC, currently only running independent expenditures ads in one district (IN-02), rolled out a list of ten more districts where it’ll start paying for ads. They’re staying on the air there, plus adding AL-02, AZ-01, CA-11, FL-02, KY-06, MS-01, TN-08, TX-17, VA-05, and WI-07. (The only “surprise,” inasmuch as it wasn’t on the NRCC’s big list of 40 districts from last month, is AZ-01.)

• SSP TV:

• IL-Sen: Not one but two ads from Mark Kirk, one touting his independence and the other attacking Alexi Giannoulias on taxes, but maybe more importantly, trying to lash him to the increasingly-anchor-like Pat Quinn

• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman’s new anti-Jerry Brown ad cleverly lets Bill Clinton do most of the talking, with highlights from the 1992 Democratic presidential primary campaign

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett, who’s been fairly modest so far about having gotten badly beaten while intervening in a domestic dispute last year, is finally playing the “hero card” with his new ad

• NM-01: Anti-Martin Heinrich ad from American Future Fund, focusing on the Pelosi boogeyman; it’s the first IE in the district and a $250K buy for four weeks

• TN-08: Dueling ads in the 8th, with two Roy Herron ads out (one a positive bio spot, the other an anti-Stephen Fincher spot aimed at his campaign finance disclosure foibles… together they’re a “six-figure” buy for the next week), and an anti-Herron ad from the 60 Plus Association (the AARP’s anti-HCR doppelganger), who’re spending $500K on the buy.

• IE tracker:

• DE-Sen: Tea Party Express spending $72K on media buys, direct mail, and e-mail blast for Christine O’Donnell

• MO-Sen: AFSCME spending $43K on anti-Roy Blunt mailer

• NV-Sen: Patriot Majority spending $309K on new ad against Sharron Angle

• NV-Sen: Patriot Majority spending another $49K on another anti-Sharron Angle ad titled “Oye, Sharron” (a Spanish-language market ad, maybe?)

• Rasmussen:

• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 44%

• NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall (D) 38%, Richard Burr (R-inc) 54%

• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber (D) 44%, Chris Dudley (R) 49%

• SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 47%, Kristi Noem (R) 45%

• DE-Sen: Despite all the hullabaloo about the late-breaking surge by Christine O’Donnell (which, if you look at fundraising and ad spending, seems like it might not have been that much of a surge at all), both parties seem to be reconciled to a Chris Coons/Mike Castle race, according to CQ. O’Donnell seems to be hanging her hopes on a last-minute Sarah Palin endorsement, which, according to intense semantic analysis by Twitterologists, didn’t really happen with her recent retweety-hashtaggy thing.

• HI-Gov: Hawaii’s the last primary in the nation, and that also means it’s the last for pre-primary financial reporting. Neil Abercrombie, who’d been lagging Mufi Hannemann on the fundraising front previously, shot ahead for the months of July and August. Abercrombie raised $768K while Hannemann raised $330K. Hannemann still has the CoH edge, $792K to $275K.

• NM-Gov: GOPer Susana Martinez has led narrowly in most polls here, but the RGA isn’t taking this race for granted: they’re moving $500K to the Martinez campaign. The DGA is also continuing to fight here, and they seem to think they have something here with their own little Bonusgate story here (where Martinez allegedly spent border security money on staff bonuses instead); they’re running their second attack ad here, and it (like the first ad) focuses on the bonuses.

• RI-Gov: There had been rumors of this way, way back, but the RNC is revisiting them today, saying that Democratic candidate Frank Caprio talked to them about a possible party switch in February (back when he was still facing the more-liberal Patrick Lynch in the Dem primary). It’s unclear what the GOP’s angle is in releasing this now… their chances are pretty much DOA, so are they just hoping to deny the DGA a victory here (for post-election talking points purposes) by driving Caprio votes to Lincoln Chafee (the indie who seems to be running, for the most part, to Caprio’s left)?

• VT-Gov: The recount has begun for the ultra-close Democratic primary in the Vermont gubernatorial race, but instead of lobbing grenades at each other, 197-vote leader Peter Shumlin and runner-up Doug Racine are touring the state together in an RV, stumping along with the other three candidates. In fact, Racine is urging his donors to get behind Shumlin, despite having requested the recount. (So far, Shumlin’s lead has edged up by 9, with 10 of the state’s 14 counties having completed the recanvass.)

• WI-Gov: Here’s a good development, that a lot of other outgoing Dem incumbents might take a lesson from: Jim Doyle, with $1.8 million sitting around in his campaign funds as he ends his gubernatorial run, is transferring $1 million of that money to the Greater Wisconsin Committee, which has aired both anti-Scott Walker and anti-Mark Neumann ads.

• CT-05: Here’s one House GOP internal that’s getting a little stale, but somehow eluded us until just now: Sam Caligiuri put out a late-August internal from National Research showing him right on Chris Murphy’s heels, trailing 40-39.

• Committees: Jim Doyle’s not the only guy with money to burn who’s emptying out the piggy banks. Barack Obama will be transferring $4.5 million from his campaign fund, divvying it up three ways with $1.5 million each to the DCCC, DSCC, and DNC.

• Mayors (pdf): Two mayoral polls are out today. One is more timely, with the DC primary only days away: Clarus finds Vincent Gray ready to oust incumbent Adrian Fenty in the Dem primary, 45-38. We Ask America also pounces on the Chicago mayor question, despite a thoroughly unclear field, and finds Rahm Emanuel would be starting in the pole position out of 10 names they gave. Emanuel’s at 30, followed by Tom Dart at 14, and both Luis Gutierrez and Jesse Jackson Jr. at 13.

• Massachusetts: Here’s an interesting set of numbers out of the Bay State: despite the election of Scott Brown and running a competitive gubernatorial race, Republicans have actually lost ground lately in terms of registration. The GOP has lost more than 9,000 voters over the last two years, and are down to 11% of all registrations. Dems held almost even at 37%, while the ranks of the unenrolled grew (by 187K since 2006), up to 51% of the electorate.

• SSP TV:

• IN-Sen: The Chamber of Commerce is out with an anti-Brad Ellsworth ad hitting the usual “trillions of government spending” points

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin’s first TV ad attacks John Raese for running attack ads

• OH-Gov: The SEIU attacks John Kasich on his Wall Street days, with a “significant six-figure” buy

• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato’s first TV ad of the general is a 60-second extravaganza focusing on the revitalization of Pittsburgh

• IL-14: Randy Hultgren talks jobs

• MI-01: Gary McDowell’s first ad has testimonials from locals saying he’s just like them, only “better dressed”

• OH-18: Americans for Job Security is out with four anti-Dem House ads, in IN-08, PA-04, and PA-07 as well as the 18th… and we have actual numbers ($124K in OH-18, $415K in PA-04, $293 in PA-07, and $318K in IN-08)

• SC-05: John Spratt’s first TV ad of the cycle focuses, unsurprisingly, on his constituent service reputation and attention to local issues

• Rasmussen:

• AZ-Sen: Rodney Glassman (D) 37%, John McCain (R-inc) 51%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 34%, Mark Kirk (R) 37%, LeAlan Jones (G) 12%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 43%, Roy Blunt (R) 53%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 50%, John Raese (R) 45%

As long as this SSP Editor (and newly minted Chicago resident) has been walking this earth, Chicago hasn’t had a mayor not named Richard M. Daley. Some thought it would never happen, but Da Mare is calling it quits:

Mayor Richard Daley says he will not run for re-election in 2011, saying it’s “time for me, it’s time for Chicago to move on.”

“The truth is I have been thinking about this for the past several months,” Daley said at a City Hall news conference that stunned the city. “In the end this is a personal decision, no more, no less.”

With the top spot in the Second City opening up for the first time in 22 years, speculation has already run rampant regarding who might throw their hat in the ring. Northwest/Southwest Side Congressman Luis Gutierrez is already forming an exploratory committee, while West Side Congressman Danny K. Davis won’t rule anything out just yet.

The 800-(fuckin’)-pound gorilla in the fuckin’ room, of course, is Rahm Emanuel, who represented a chunk of the North Side-based 5th district and had made his mayoral ambitions public awhile ago. But with even Rahmbo’s successor in Congress, Mike Quigley, saying that Rahm isn’t a shoo-in (among others, including South Side Congressmen Bobby Rush and Jesse Jackson Jr.), this race just may prove to be the hottest ticket around after November. (Quigley and JJJr. also haven’t ruled out runs, either.)

Other candidates floated include Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart, outgoing Cook County Assessor Jim Houlihan, North Side state Rep. John Fritchey, South Side state Sen. James Meeks, Circuit Court Clerk (and failed Cook County Board President candidate and ’07 mayoral candidate) Dorothy Brown, and two North Side Cook County Commissioners – Bridget Gainer (10th) and Forrest Claypool (12th, who’s also running as an indie for Cook County Assessor).

A host of Aldermen and former Aldermen (our term for City Councilpeople) are also rumored to be interested, including Manny Flores (formerly 1st Ward – Logan Square/Wicker Park), Bob Fioretti (2nd – South Loop/Near West Side), Leslie Hairston (5th – Hyde Park/Grand Crossing), JJJr.’s wife Sandi Jackson (7th – South Shore/Calumet Heights), Ed Burke (14th – Brighton Park/Gage Park), Scott Waguespack (32nd – Bucktown/Roscoe Village), Tom Allen (38th – Portage Park), Brendan Reilly (42nd – River North/Loop) and Tom Tunney (44th – Lakeview/Boystown). For what it’s worth, a third member of the Jackson family – JJJr.’s son Jonathan – has also been mentioned as a potential candidate.

If I’ve thrown enough neighborhood/area names in to confuse you, here’s a ward map I made, and the City’s official neighborhood map (pdf).

(And because I can’t get enough digs in on Todd Stroger, who knows, the soon-to-be former Cook County Board President – who finished 4th in his primary with 14% in February – might even be delusional enough to run!)

No mention of this race would be complete without a mention of the racial divisions present here. Chicago’s voting-age population, as of 2000, was 36.7% non-Hispanic White, 33.8% non-Hispanic Black, 22.8% Hispanic, and 4.7% Asian; leaders in both the Hispanic and Black communities have stated that they will be represented in the field. There’ll also be a divide between the pro-Daley loyalists and anti-Daley reformists, especially among white voters, probably between the younger “lakefront liberals” and the old-school machine pols on the Northwest/Southwest Sides. (Knowing nothing about the field right now, this Lakefront Lib would love to vote for Claypool, but would also happily vote for Gainer or Waguespack.)

Under Chicago’s quirky off-year municipal election calendar, petitions are due betwen November 15 and 22, with the primary election on February 22, 2011 and the general (i.e. runoff) between the top two vote-getters six weeks later on April 5 should no one receive 50% +1. With Daley – and many of his allies on the Chicago City Council – heading for the exits (and promotion-seeking Aldermen not running for re-election), one thing is certain: Chicago’s political landscape will be quite different come next April.

Update: A few more names I’ve seen bandied about: City Clerk Miguel del Valle, and Ald. Joe Moore (49th – Rogers Park/West RP). All the candidates highlighted here are Democrats…there’s 1 Republican (of 50) on the Chicago City Council, Brian Doherty (41st – Edison Park/O’Hare), and even he’s a close Daley ally.

Update 2: Even more candidates rumored, two of the Daley family: Da Mare’s brother William Daley, and his son Patrick Daley. More state officials include outgoing comptroller (and failed gubernatorial candidate) Dan Hynes and Attorney General (and daughter of state House Speaker Mike) Lisa Madigan. There’s also Cook County ClerkDavid Orr (who briefly served as mayor after Harold Washington’s death), former State Senate Majority Leader Emil Jones, and Ald. Gene Schulter (47th – North Center/Lincoln Square).

CT-Sen: Obama alert! The POTUS is going to do a fundraiser in Stamford for Dick Blumenthal on Sept. 16th, the same day he was already scheduled to do a DNC event in Greenwich. Sorry to get all emo on you again, but if even Dick Blumenthal needs Obama’s help….

DE-Sen: It’s the battle of the sketchy polls! The Tea Party Express is touting a survey which supposedly shows Mike Castle up just 44-38 in the Republican primary over Christine O’Donnell. (Actually, they say Castle is at “43.7%” – too many significant digits is a classic sign of sketchiness.) Meanwhile, the Fix claims that “Internal GOP polling conducted last week showed Castle with a margin of nearly 20 points over O’Donnell.” Anyhow, the TPX has no plans to evacuate in their moment of… well, we’ll see if it’s their moment of triumph… despite a surge of new questions about O’Donnell’s fitness as a candidate. Among other things: Former aides say she never paid promised salaries on her 2008 campaign against Joe Biden, and she just received her degree from Farleigh Dickinson University last week, despite having attended 17 years ago and having repeatedly described herself as a graduate. Come on, baby, hold together!

IL-Sen: Amanda Terkel has spotted a trend among Mark Kirk’s public statements: He can’t shut up about the economic crisis in Greece – and Terkel thinks Kirk is attempting to link Alexi Giannoulias (who is of Greek descent) to the meltdown. Perhaps most egregious is Kirk’s statement that while he “wore a U.S. Navy uniform, Alexi Giannoulias wore a basketball uniform in Greece.” Really? That last part is relevant? A pretty ugly example of “othering.”

LA-Sen: A little bit of Cajun-flavored cat fud: Gov. Bobby Jindal won’t endorse Sen. David Vitter in his re-election campaign. Jindal claims he doesn’t get involved in federal races, but WDSU has two very recent examples to the contrary. Anyhow, I can’t think of too many sitting governors who haven’t endorsed same-party, same-state senators, can you?

NH-Sen: Finally, a survey of the severely under-polled GOP senate primary in New Hampshire – though it’s from Republican pollster Magellan, who likes to do Rasmussen-style one-day samples (a methodology that I think it’s fair to say is not a best practice). Anyhow, here are the results (9/1, likely voters, May in parens):

Kelly Ayotte (R): 34 (38)

Ovide Lamontagne (R) : 21 (9)

Bill Binnie (R) : 17 (29)

Jim Bender (R) : 13 (4)

Other: 4 (4)

Undecided: 11 (15)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

UT-Sen: The battle for Orrin Hatch’s senate seat – which won’t take place until 2012 – is already getting ugly. Hatch is claiming that freshman Rep. Jason Chaffetz (who, you’ll recall, already knocked off one sitting incumbent at a state convention in 2008) promised him he wouldn’t challenge him next cycle. Chaffetz says he only pledged not to run against Sen. Bob Bennett, who of course already lost earlier this year. A Hatch spokesbot took off the gloves in response, saying: “Senator Hatch takes very seriously the principle of keeping his word. Of course, I suppose Jason can break it any time he wants to.”

WV-Sen: Robert Byrd’s family is excoriating self-funding Republican John Raese for using a photo of Dem Joe Manchin and President Obama that was taken at Byrd’s memorial service earlier this year in an attack ad. Raese’s campaign manager said, “That’s a stock photo. We had no idea it was from the memorial service.” Well, now you know.

AZ-Gov: Does this statement remind you of O.J. Simpson’s ill-fated “hypothetical” book, If I Did It? Because that was the first thing I thought of:

“That was an error, if I said that,” Brewer said about beheadings occurring in Arizona.

AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick is out with her first ad of the cycle, a pretty dull positive spot about how she donated 5% of her congressional salary… national treasury… opposed bailout… etc., etc. Ordinarily I’d just relegate this to our ad roundup at the bottom of the digest, but I also wanted to point out this great observation from SSP’s own Johnny Longtorso: namely, the fact that the Navajo Nation (the largest Indian tribe in the United States) is holding its presidential election this fall, which may help Kirkpatrick on the turnout front. (Indians vote heavily Dem.) According to Wikipedia, some 130,000 Navajo live within the nation’s boundaries in Arizona (it also includes parts of Utah and New Mexico), almost all of which is contained within the 1st CD.

AZ-08: You know how the WWF tried to become the WWE? Well, true hardcore wingnuts aren’t content with (the bad kind of) SSP – they want SSE: Social Security elimination. Given how toxic this is in the real world (i.e., for the 99.999% of people who have never heard of John Galt), it’s no wonder that Republican nominee Jesse Kelly now say he wants to “protect” Social Security. Good luck getting past statements like this one, from just last year: “If you have any ideas on that, I’m all ears. I would love to eliminate the program.”

IA-01: This doesn’t seem like a positive sign to me. Bruce Braley is going on the air with an ad (watch it here) hitting back against an outside group’s attack ad – not something a candidate in an apparently “Safe D” race ordinarily feels a need to do. The group, American Future Fund, is accusing Braley of “supporting” the Park51 community center, though Braley has taken the standard “don’t wanna deal with it” approach of calling it a local zoning issue for NYC. On the flipside, I’ll take it as a good sign that Braley doesn’t plan to get Martha Coakley’d. (Though doesn’t it sound like Braley’s “I approve this message” was recorded via cell phone? Does that mean the ad was rushed on to the air?) NWOTSOTB for Braley, though AAF claims it has spent $50K and plans to spend more.

IN-03: A common theme rears its head once more: A Republican rails loudly against bailouts, but it turns out he’s been the beneficiary of government largesse himself. In this case, Dem Tom Hayhurst has been attacking GOPer Marlin Stutzman for accepting $180K in agricultural subsidies since 1995. But as the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette reports, just last month Stutzman said: “It’s time to get rid of farm subsidies. The subsidies only manipulate the market.”

KS-04: You know, we always love reporting on cat fud for cat fud’s sake. Sometimes it’s just a whiff, but other times, the cat fud can really stink up a race. Case in point: Mike Pompeo, a top competitor for GOP Dickbag of the Year, wasn’t endorsed by any of the candidates he beat in the Republican primary, and even refused to return phone calls from his opponents. Now, the cats are coming home to roost, because one of those opponents, rich guy Wink Hartman, is considering re-entering the race on the Libertarian Party line. (The Lib candidate dropped out of the race for health reasons.) Hartman, who spent almost $1.6 million of his own money on the primary, notably includes among his reasons for wanting to get back in the game the fact that Pompeo “misrepresented Hartman’s pro-life position and residency.” The Libertarians have until Sept. 20th to decide whether to tap Hartman. In any event, this could provide a huge boost to Dem Raj Goyle, who appears to be in a surprisingly good position to stage an upset.

LA-03: In an unusual move, the Louisiana state Republican Party has formally endorsed Jeff Landry over Hunt Downer in the runoff. State parties don’t typically take sides in primaries like this, but it sounds like the powers that be are eager to see Downer bail, rather than prolong the race all the way until October 3rd. I personally suspect that Downer has no chance in the second round, and I think he’ll wind up playing Kevin Calvey to Landry’s Jim Lankford. (Check out our OK-05 tag if the analogy isn’t ringing any bells.)

NC-11: Heh – looks like Heath Shuler’s suggesting he could run for Speaker of the House, clearly as a way to distance himself from Nancy Pelosi. Shuler also claimed that cats eventually turn into dogs.

NH-02: Nice – progressive fave Ann McLane Kuster raised $223K in her pre-primary report (7/1-8/25), totally kicking the asses of all the other major candidates (Katrina Swett (D): $37K, Charlie Bass (R): $57K, Jennifer Horn (R): $39K). As for cash, it goes Kuster: $450K, Swett: $798K, Bass: $312K, Horn: $32K. Even better news: Kuster is touting an internal poll from the Mellman Group showing her with a commanding 47-24 lead over Swett in the primary, which is Sept. 14th.

NY-20, NY-23: Rahm Emanuel is headlining a joint fundraiser on Sept. 19th for two upstate Dems: Scott Murphy of the 20th CD and Bill Owens of the 23rd. Murphy has $1.5 million on hand but Owens has only $600K.

PA-06: A nasty bit of racial ugliness from the campaign of Jim Gerlach. Said a spokesman about Dem opponent Manan Trivedi: “The only one who has played the race card here is him, by going to Indian-American groups to raise money.”

SC-02: The Office of Congressional Ethics is investigating Rep. Joe Wilson’s trips abroad – at least thirty over the last eight years – and his per diem spending habits. Wilson is a prolific traveler on the taxpayer’s dime, ranking 29th among current House members and 39th among 734 members who’ve served since 1994, according to The State. Wilson has tried to downplay prior reports of the probe, claiming it was only about $12 spent on some cheap mementos from Afghanistan, but that’s evidently not the case. Meanwhile, Dem Rob Miller has a new ad out hitting Wilson for his support of CAFTA. Check it out – I think it’s pretty effective.

VA-05: In a move that vaguely brings to mind Carl Mumpower, teabagger Jeffrey Clark said he’d withdraw from the race if the party or parties responsible for disseminating information about his financial history came forward to claim responsibility. Dem Tom Perriello’s campaign said it wasn’t them, but Republican Rob Hurt wouldn’t say anything, so Clark says he’s staying in the race. Feel the Mumpower!

OH-AG: Wrapping up some odds-and-ends from their recent Ohio poll, PPP find ex-Sen. Mike DeWine leading incumbent Dem AG Richard Cordray 44-40.

DCCC: Another day, another triage story. This time, the NYT claims that “party leaders are preparing a brutal triage of their own members in hopes of saving enough seats to keep a slim grip on the majority.” And while they don’t have an actual quote from him, the Times claims Chris Van Hollen “conceded” that Dems “would ultimately cut loose members who had not gained ground.” In response, reports The Hill:

Van Hollen released a statement saying that the story “erroneously” said that the DCCC would redirect resources to two dozen viable campaigns if a review in the next two weeks showed that vulnerables weren’t gaining ground.

I have to wonder: Did the NYT really get Van Hollen wrong here, or is CVH deliberately trying to send mixed messages in order to motivate his troops through fear?

CA-Sen: Just a day after President Obama did three fundraisers for her campaign, Sen. Barbara Boxer says she expects the POTUS to be back next month for another event in San Francisco.

FL-Sen: The US Attorney’s Office, the FBI and the IRS are all investigating the possible misuse of credit cards by state Republican Party officials – a case which has already led to the indictment of former House Speaker Ray Sansom. In a separate investigation, the IRS is looking at Marco Rubio’s tax records to see if he misused his party credit cards for personal expenses. Meanwhile, state Rep. Tom Grady becomes the latest Charlie Crist ally to pull away from the campaign.

PA-Sen: PoliticsPA says that, according to a source, Joe Sestak’s week-long TV ad buy is “worth” $930,000. It’s not clear to me whether that’s how much Sestak is actually spending, though – it’s possible to lock in lower rates by reserving time in advance, which his campaign may have done here (thus inflating the “worth” of the buy). Meanwhile, in an email to supporters, Sestak is decrying Arlen Specter’s attacks on his service in the Navy as “Swift Boat-like.”

ME-Gov: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for Libby Mitchell (4/11-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Libby Mitchell (D): 36

Steve Rowe (D): 16

Pat McGowan (D): 13

John Richardson (D): 4

Rosa Scarcelli (D): 3

(MoE: ±4%)

If these names – all of whom are running in the Maine Democratic gubernatorial primary – aren’t familiar to you, follow the link to the Hotline for some background details.

MN-Gov: Dem Matt Entenza is going up on the air with TV and radio ads after the DFL’s statewide convention this weekend – but of course, no word on the size of the buy. Speaking of the convention, things are about to either get very interesting or a lot simpler in the MN gubernatorial race. Entenza and ex-Sen. Mark Dayton, who can both self-fund, are both saying they’ll fight on through the primary, while the two apparent frontrunners, state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher and Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, are pledging to abide by the convention’s endorsement.

AL-05: Notorious turncoat Rep. Parker Griffith is still sitting on $20K that various Democratic lawmakers have given him, supposedly because they haven’t asked for it back. This includes money from Rahm Emanuel, Nydia Velazquez, Rosa DeLauro and the retiring Bart Gordon, among others. Gordon, for what can only be bizarre, unspecified reasons, isn’t asking for his money back. Rahm, since he’s serving in the White House, won’t make a formal request, but twists the knife, saying “Whether the contribution is returned or not will be left up to Rep. Griffith’s conscience.” As for the rest of you dudes, DEMAND YOUR MONEY BACK!

CA-19: SurveyUSA (4/16-19, likely voters, 3/15-17 in parens):

Jeff Denham (R): 27 (25)

Jim Patterson (R): 26 (26)

Richard Pombo (R): 16 (13)

Larry Westerlund (R): 6 (7)

Undecided: 25 (29)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Loraine Goodwin (D): 18 (14)

John Estrada (D): 15 (24)

Les Marsden (D): 10 (8)

Undecided (D): 56 (54)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Seriously, of all the races they could poll? I realize this is on behalf of a media client, but still.

DC-AL, UT-AL: Sigh. Legislation which would have given the District of Columbia an actual voting seat in the House is yet again being derailed. Republicans insist that any such bill also eviscerate any remaining gun control laws in the district, and they’ve frightened enough conservative Dems into supporting such an amendment that you can’t have one (the voting rights bill) without the other (the gun provision). The pro-gun measure has become even more absurd, though, such that Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton asked Steny Hoyer to pull the bill altogether. On the Senate side, Orrin Hatch had spazzed about the fact that the bill’s other sop to Republicans (a temporary extra seat for Utah) would have been at at-large district – he wants to be able to re-draw the lines (and presumably screw Dem Rep. Jim Matheson) – and said he was glad the bill got scuttled.

HI-01: The D-Trip just spent another $55K on a second negative TV ad attacking Charles Djou, which you can see here. Meanwhile, in light of recent polling showing this unusual jungle race to be incredibly tight, SSP is changing its rating from “Lean Dem” to “Tossup.

MI-01: Term-limited Dem state Rep. Gary McDowell will apparently run to succeed Bart Stupak. McDowell is from the Upper Peninsula, which Crisitunity aptly described as the district’s “cultural center of gravity.” One possible holdup, though, is that it sounds like McDowell may be willing to defer to former House Democratic Floor Leader Pat Gagliardi, who has not yet made up his mind.

NY-29: Dem Matthew Zeller, tapped by county leaders as the Democratic nominee in the (potential) special election to succeed Eric Massa, formally launched his campaign on Monday. However, it’s starting to look like there won’t be a special election after all, which means there will be a primary. If that winds up being the case, businessman David Nachbar (who withdrew his name from consideration for the special) has said he might run.

WV-01: Rep. Alan Mollohan is going on the air with a TV ad that attacks his primary opponent, state Sen. Mike Oliverio, “for his ties to a conservative-leaning organization of state legislators.” Oliverio had previously launched an ad attacking Mollohan on ethical grounds. No word on the size of either buy.

Alaska: Alaska’s state legislature voted to increase its size, by two seats in the Senate and four in the House. AK’s population has tripled since statehood fifty years ago, but its lege had remained constant in numbers. What’s more, its rural districts are enormous, and would have gotten even larger after redistricting as the population concentrates in the state’s few big cities.

Polling: Reid Wilson, diving into recent FEC reports, notes that few Dems commissioned polls in the first quarter of this year – and among those who have, pretty much no one is sharing the data with the public. However, Reid doesn’t say whether Republicans have spent similarly on internal polling in the past quarter, or how Q1 2010 compares with prior years.

RNC: God bless Michael Steele. Under his stewardship, the RNC decided to blow $340K to hold a big staff meeting in… Hawaii. Because that’s both convenient and inexpensive. If Dems suffer anything less than an utter blowout this fall, we’ll be able to thank Steele in no small part.

WATN?: Former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, who already served 99 days in jail for obstruction of justice (among other things), may be headed back to prison for probation violations (including hiding assets).

Today is definitely the right day for a ganja break….

CA-Sen: President Obama was out in California doing not one but three separate fundraising events for Sen. Barbara Boxer. The fundraisers are expected to bring in between $3 and $3.5 million, split between the DNC and the Boxer campaign. But I can’t imagine it will be an even split, seeing as donation caps for party committees are more than ten times greater than for campaigns.

DE-Sen: WTF? Can someone please explain to me why, of all people, Chris Van Hollen – the chair of the DCCC – is helping to fluff Republican Rep. Mike Castle’s bipartisan cred? CVH is co-sponsoring legislation with Castle which is aimed at “responding” to the Supreme Court’s Citizens United ruling. The merits of the issue aside, why on earth give a gift like this to Castle?

PA-Sen: The primary is just a month away – so Joe Sestak finally has to blow his cash hoard on a crunch-time push against Arlen Specter, right? PoliticsPA says that their sources are confirming Sestak will at last go on the air with TV ads today, but doesn’t have any details on the size or breadth of the buy.

MI-01: Dem state Sen. Mike Prusi, who had been weighing a bid to succeed retiring Rep. Bart Stupak, says he won’t run. There are still several Dems in the mix, though.

Chicago-Mayor: After denying it for quite some time, Rahm Emanuel finally admitted to Charlie Rose that he would like to be mayor of Chicago some day – but that he wouldn’t challenge his “dear friend” Richard Daley.

Polling: Nate Silver points up an interesting issue with Rasmussen’s “House Effect.” Rasmussen defenders often argue that the firm’s likely voter screen produces more-Republican results because conservatives are more fired up this cycle. The problem with that claim is that Rasmussen does release one set of numbers that cover all adults and are not screened in any way: their monthly partisan ID tracker. And on this measure, too, Ras is six points redder than average. Nate offers a few guesses as to why Ras leans this way even without any screening.

There’s one silver lining for party committees when it comes to retirements: Departing incumbents typically have a bundle of scrilla saved up that they can, if they’re so inclined, donate in bulk to their party’s House and Senate campaign arms. (They can also make normal, FEC-limited donations to other campaigns, or give the money to charity.) With all the retirements on both sides, there’s a lot of money floating out there, so let’s take a look at who’s got the bucks.

First up, the House. We’ve compiled cash-on-hand figures for all members who are not running for re-election or have resigned this cycle, with one exception (more on that below):

We haven’t listed members running for Senate because they can (and generally do) transfer all of their House money over to their Senate campaigns. However, depending on state law, members running for other office (such as governor) may or may not be able to port over their House warchests. Two Dems fall into that category. As you can surmise from the CoH totals, Alabama law permitted Artur Davis to switch his federal money over to his state account.

Neil Abercrombie wasn’t so lucky. He had hoped to do the same, but a state committee barred him from doing so back in August. Abercrombie has managed to whittle his account down by half since then (he has refunded many of his donors’ contributions), but if he’s looking to do his colleagues in the House a solid, he can give the balance to the DCCC.

A special comment must be made here about ex-Rep. Robert Wexler, who announced back in October that he was stepping down from Congress in order to pursue other opportunities. At the end of September, Wexler had nearly a million dollars in the bank. Since then, he went on a $310,000 spending spree, rewarding consultants, pollsters, fundraisers, and other campaign associates with some very generous payments. Wexler did give a handful of donations to some of his former colleagues, but he failed to give a dime to the DCCC. Robert Wexler is shamefully letting his party down by not putting his ample campaign account to productive use at his party’s greatest hour of need. If he doesn’t want this to become a permanent black mark on his record, this attitude needs to change.

That said, let’s not let Rahm Emanuel off the hook, either – he’s hoarding over a million bucks in his dormant House account, no doubt waiting to use that nest egg for an eventual return to elected office. But if Rahm is serious about serving his President’s agenda, he might want to consider cutting a generous check to DCCC. In a year like this, we can’t afford to have guys like Rahm holding back. Does Rahm Emanuel even care about retaining control of the House of Representatives?

House Republicans:

Republicans have slimmer pickings, but that still adds up to nearly $3 million that the NRCC would love to poach out of these idle accounts. Let’s hope these members take after Rahm!

Senate Dems:

Yep – $25.6 million (including Clinton’s presidential account), with the biggest chunk of that coming from Evan Bayh. You’d think that Bayh, after putting his party in a bind with his surprise retirement decision, might feel compelled to share some of his resources to the DSCC, but the man is a notorious miser. Perhaps this time, though, he can be shamed into making a meaningful contribution to the Democratic cause.

Senate Republicans:

While the Republicans have less to work with there, $3.7 million isn’t exactly chump change. The bottom line, though, is that Democrats are facing an incredibly tough election environment, and departing House & Senate Dems are sitting on an enormous $33 million stockpile. They need to help their party now.