Kendrick Meek Blasts BP at America’s Future Now (FL-Sen)

As you know, Floridians are disproportionately affected by the actions of British Pretoleum that led to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.  I’m talking to Floridians every day who enraged at BP and want to make sure that BP pays the full price for it’s actions.  I’m listening.

I also want to listen to you.  I’m going to be one of the leading voices in holding BP accountable.  I want your feedback.  Tell me actions you’d like to see taken to make sure that BP pays the price for this oil spill.

(Transcript of video below…)

Rep. Kendrick Meek on the BP Oil Spill

America’s Future Now Conference

June 9, 2010

Human error, criminal activity, British Petroleum — one of the biggest companies on the face of the earth, eleven people died, individuals are still affected by it, people have lost their jobs and they’re still giving dividends.

Ladies and gentlemen, your purpose right now is greater than ever.  You are supposed to make people like me uncomfortable.  You are supposed to make corporate executives uncomfortable.  You are supposed to push for folks who can’t push for themselves. And so I come today to tell you to keep up the good work. Continue to challenge us and continue to make us better. Continue to be “yes I know what you did yesterday, but what are you going to do tomorrow.” Continue to make sure that individuals are sitting on the edge of their seats versus leaning back in their seats when it comes down to meeting the needs of individuals who cannot help themselves.

British Petroleum, as far as I’m concerned, there shouldn’t be any caps as it relates to liability.

So I’m going to tell you right now, Ladies and Gentlemen, this is bigger than what we’re used to.  We have the environment that has been affected and we will not know the true damage to aquatic life for years to come.  At the same time, we have the conservatives that are saying “less regulation.”  Ladies and gentlmen, less regulation brought about the fall on Wall Street. Less regulation killed those coal miners. Less regulation killed those 11 individuals that worked on that platform.  Less regulation brought about this disaster, ladies and gentlemen.

Every last dividend that BP wants to give out should go towards cleaning up this Gulf and making sure that these families are made whole, to be able to teach that in this country corporate greed will not go unpunished and individuals should go to jail and individuals should pay the price for what they’ve done.

My track record speaks to the fight.  I have a 100% Sierra Club record — not after the spill, but before the spill.

I am glad that one of the first pieces of legislation that left the house was the Climate Change bill and that I voted for that legislation, because I can stand on solid ground, not only having a 100% Sierra Club record, not only having a history against offshore oil drilling off the coast of Florida, but also standing up when very few were there.

But I will tell you, as long as I have a card to vote in the United States Congress and when I get a voting card to vote in the United States Senate, British Petroleum will not sleep well, because they know that there’s a 6’3″, 250-pound member of Congress that’s thinking about them and that’s on them and will make them accountable in this disaster.  Thank you.

Sign my petition calling for a moratorium on new offshore drilling

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FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Attack of the Shady Billionaires

Quinnipiac (6/2-8, likely voters, no trendlines):

Rick Scott (R): 44

Bill McCollum (R): 31

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±3.4%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 29

Jeff Greene (D): 27

Maurice Ferre (D): 3

Undecided: 37

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Here’s a “holy crap!” moment from Quinnipiac: the two random sketchy ultra-wealthy guys, Rick Scott and Jeff Greene, whose entries into the GOP gubernatorial primary and Democratic Senate primary (respectively) initially seemed like go-nowhere vanity projects, are actually in serious contention thanks to lavish TV spending.

In particular, Rick Scott (former CEO for hospital corporation Columbia/HCA) has shot ahead of Bill McCollum. Scott’s favorables are a very high 40/12 among GOPers, indicating that McCollum’s (or Mary Cheney’s, really) attempts to point out that whole Medicare fraud thing on Scott’s part have gotten drowned out by the sheer volume of Scott’s advertising. Of course, it doesn’t look like McCollum has gotten too badly harmed by Rentboy; he’s also a 41/19 among GOPers, so he might be able to fight his way back if he can find his financial footing, ad-wise.

Jeff Greene, the derivatives pioneer who increased his fortune betting on an economic collapse caused in part by those same derivatives, isn’t leading, but is nipping at Kendrick Meek’s heels in the Democratic Senate primary. Meek has spent little on advertising so far, so despite his institutional frontrunner status, he isn’t particularly better-known than Greene right now.

Quinnipiac released its general election numbers separately:

Quinnipiac (6/2-8, registered voters, 4/8-13 in parentheses (Sen, Gov)):

Kendrick Meek (D): 17 (24)

Marco Rubio (R): 33 (30)

Charlie Crist (I): 37 (32)

Undecided: 11 (13)

Jeff Greene (D): 14

Marco Rubio (R): 33

Charlie Crist (I): 40

Undecided: 11

Alex Sink (D): 32

Rick Scott (R): 42

Undecided: 21

Alex Sink (D): 34 (36)

Bill McCollum (R): 42 (40)

Undecided: 19 (21)

(MoE: ±2.9%)

Alex Sink (D): 26

Rick Scott (R): 35

Bud Chiles (I) : 13

Undecided: 23

Alex Sink (D): 25

Bill McCollum (R): 33

Bud Chiles (I) : 19

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±4.7%)

Charlie Crist may actually be able to thread the needle here (especially if he gets an assist from Jeff Greene, as Crist breaks off an extra 3% from the Dem column if it’s Greene instead of Meek); he leads Marco Rubio in both configurations, thanks to, if you believe the trendlines, eating up a further share of Dem votes.

Things aren’t looking so good for Alex Sink in the gubernatorial race, with similar underperformances against both Scott and McCollum. (Interestingly — and I don’t know if this is a trend or a blip — Rasmussen finds the Governor’s race a much better bet for the Dems right now than Quinnipiac does.)

It looks like Quinnipiac added a Bud Chiles option mid-sample once the indie candidate announced (as explained by the higher MoE on the three-ways). Despite his Democratic lineage, Chiles’ entry doesn’t seem to hurt Sink disproportionately, as he seems to have enough Dixiecrat appeal to draw equally from both column D and column R. The 8-to-9 point margins between the Rs and Sink remains unchanged with Chiles in the mix.

FL-Sen: Sunshine State Showdown

In my latest U.S. Senate projections, posted a few weeks back, I noted my belief that, despite recent polls showing otherwise, I believe Republican Marco Rubio will claim victory over Independent Charlie Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek in the upcoming Florida Senate race. Though most polling has shown Crist with a modest lead over Rubio and Meek trailing way behind, I’ve been thinking, for several reasons, such may prove short lived.

For one, the bulk of Crist’s impressive support in these polls has stemmed from registered Democrats. Though the centrist Governor could surely win over conservaDems and even many moderate Democrats come the Fall, my suspicion is Meek, a progressive Congressman, will ultimately clean up among the liberals who make up a majority of the Dem electorate. Per CNN polling from 2008, self-identified liberals make up 51% of Florida Dems, with 37% moderates and 13% conservatives. If Meek can hold liberals and win over half of the moderate vote, he’ll defeat Crist 3-to-1 among the total Dem vote, forcing Crist to turn elsewhere in getting the necessary votes.

That “elsewhere” may not necessarily be the party Crist just abandoned.

If you believe the polls, Rubio, the fmr. Florida House Speaker, has already shored-up the vast majority of the GOP vote, leaving Crist with about 20% of his old party’s base. For Crist to pull off a win, this probably cannot be the case. Keep in mind, in Sen. Joe Lieberman’s Independent bid for re-election in 2006, he held onto roughly a third of the Democratic vote, stemmed largely from moderate and conservative Dems. Per that same 2008 CNN primary poll, 61% of Florida Republicans are self-identified conservatives, with 28% moderates and 11% liberals. For a Crist victory, I suspect he’ll need to clean-up among both liberals and moderates, the latter of which could be difficult as the Governor moves toward the left in his quest to win over Democrats.

Unsurprisingly, the most key factor of all for Crist will be the Independent vote, which makes up about 30% of the Florida electorate and, typically, decides statewide elections here. Polls show Crist with a decent lead among this group and, should he hold onto this lead, he’ll surely have a fighting chance at triumph. The question is, can the Governor win over conservative non-affiliates who might find Rubio attractive too? Or, likewise, liberal Indies who are intrigued by Meek? It’s a fine ideological balance Crist must somehow pull off. Move to the center-left? Maintain that slightly right-of-center stance he established in his Gubernatorial tenture?

Whatever the case, I currently think Rubio, one of the hottest GOP commodities on the scene, will eek out a win.

My current thoughts on an electoral breakdown here are, as follows…

Republican – 37%

Democrat – 35%

Independent – 28%

Crist – 15%/35%/45% = 31%

Meek – 0%/60%/15% = 25%

Rubio – 85%/5%/40% = 44%

Crist’s dream scenario probably mirrors something more along the lines of…

Democrat – 35%

Republican – 35%

Independent – 30%

Crist – 65%/25%/55% = 49%

Meek – 30%/0%/10% = 14%

Rubio – 5%/75%/35% = 37%

As you see, Meek and Rubio are relatively stable in their margins, at ranges of 14%-25% and 37-44%, respectively. In all likelihood, neither could win in a two-way match. Crist, on the other hand, has very erratic numbers, with a range of 31%-49%. Such guarantees at least second-place finish, but also means Crist requires 37% to even remain competitive against Rubio.

Such a model assumes a) Meek implodes among registered Dems (much like Republican Alan Schlesinger in that ’06 CT race), b) Crist wins over moderate Republicans, and c) Crist overwhelmingly wins among non-affilated voters. For the time being, I just don’t see Meek as anemic as Schlesinger, and I suspect, amid such an anti-incumbent environment, moderate GOP-ers may prefer Rubio over the sitting Governor. I imagine Crist is ahead among non-affiliateds, but not by enough to run up the necessary margins.

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/…

SSP Daily Digest: 5/28 (Morning Edition)

  • AK-Sen: It looks like Democrats will have a warm body to challenge frosh GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski this year. The Alaska Democratic Party is touting Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams as their man, and he says that he’ll make an announcement about the race on June 1.
  • AR-Sen: The SEIU is spending $307,000 on their latest ad buy for Bill Halter, bringing their total investment in this race close to $2.5 million. That’s some serious pie.
  • CT-Sen: Last week, Joe Lieberman said he was undecided on whom to support in the race between Democrat Richard Blumenthal and Republican Linda McMahon. This week, Lieberman is still saying that he’s “not eliminating [a McMahon endorsement] as a possibility.” What a major league asshole.
  • FL-Sem: This is both amusing and rather extraordinary. Libertarian Party candidate Alexander Snitker released an internal poll conducted by Telsel Inc. showing Charlie Crist at 40%, Marco Rubio at 34%, Kendrick Meek at 10%, and Snitker at a whopping 2.5%. I’m not sure what’s more remarkable: the fact that this guy paid for a poll, or the fact that he’s touting its results as proof that he can win.
  • MO-Sen: Because it’s never too early to start planning for 2012, ex-Sen. Jim Talent says that he’s mulling over a rematch with Democrat Claire McCaskill, and will make a decision early next cycle.
  • NV-Sen: We had heard of the Dump Reid PAC before, but I didn’t realize that their name was an acronym. Yes, their formal title is actually “Decidedly Unhappy Mainstream Patriots Rejecting Evil-Mongering Incompetent Democrats”. Anyway, those bozos have spent $30,000 against Harry Reid, mostly on direct mail.
  • AL-07: EMILY’s List has now spent $110,000 on the candidacy of former Wall Street securities attorney Terri Sewell, most of that on direct mail. My one-word editorial: Yeesh.
  • AR-03: Wilson Research Strategies (5/19-20, likely voters):

    Steve Womack (R): 53

    Cecile Bledsoe (R): 24

    Undecided: 23

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

  • CT-04: It looks like the GOP primary to take on Jim Himes will be a four-way. State Sen. Dan Debicella, businessman Robert Merkle, and Easton First Selectman Thomas Herrmann will be joined on the ballot by Paulist businessman Rick Torres, who says that he’s collected the required amount of signatures to land on the ballot. Torres also announced a cross-endorsement of fellow weirdo Peter Schiff, who’s waging an uphill campaign for the Republican Senate nomination. Torres says that his campaign will help Schiff collect signatures in the coming days.
  • IN-03: Republicans now have more than ten dudes running for the seat of disgraced ex-Rep. Mark Souder, the latest entrant being state Rep. Wes Culver.
  • NY-13: After being rebuffed by disgraced ex-Rep. Vito Fossella, the Staten Island GOP formally nominated lawyer Michael Allegretti to take on Dem Rep. Mike McMahon. In advance of the committee’s vote, Allegretti’s primary opponent, former FBI agent Michael Grimm, wrote a blistering letter to the borough party, calling their Fossella shenanigans “dysfunctional” and their endorsement a “sham”. Grimm is vowing to soldier on to the primary. Meanwhile, McMahon picked up the endorsement of the Staten Island Conservative Party this week.
  • SC-03: I don’t have a dog in this race, but a good rule of thumb when it comes to contested GOP primaries is to root against whatever nutcase the Club for Growth has endorsed. That said, the Clubbers are spending $110K on a media buy in support of real estate broker and auctioneer Jeff Duncan in the open seat race to replace GOP Rep. Gresham Barrett. Write that one down on your scorecard!
  • TN-08: And speaking of “independent” expenditures, it’s been mentioned several times in the digest that Robert Kirkland has been filing independent expenditures on behalf of his brother, physician Ron Kirkland, who’s locked in a Republican primary battle with agribsuiness kingpin/humble gospel singer Stephen Fincher to replace retiring Dem Rep. John Tanner. For those keeping score, Rob has now spent a quarter of a million bucks on the race in a show of brotherly love.
  • FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Crist, McCollum Hold Slim Leads (And Dockery Quits)

    Ipsos Public Affairs for the St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald (5/22-24, registered voters):

    Charlie Crist (I): 30

    Kendrick Meek (D): 15

    Marco Rubio (R): 27

    Undecided: 23

    (MoE: ±4%)

    We’ve seen our share of Florida polls this cycle, but with a three-way Senate race and weirdo gazillionaires forcing themselves into the Republican gubernatorial primary and the Democratic Senatorial primary, it’s always worth it to take a look at this freak state.

    Ipsos lends another piece of weight behind the evidence that suggests that Crist is beginning his independent bid for Senate with a slight lead on Rubio thanks in part to significant support from Democratic voters. Crist leads Meek by 38-33 among Democrats, while trailing Rubio by 51-26 among Republicans. Crist also manages to clean up among independents, earning 39% of their votes to only 12% for Rubio and 7% for Meek. I still have to wonder if Crist’s 26% among Republicans may represent something of a high-water mark, given that his campaign is now aggressively attempting to eat Meek’s lunch. Still, Crist will always have Meek’s presence on the ballot as a foil, and maybe that fact alone will help him retain some conservative-leaning votes that he might have otherwise lost.

    Also interesting is the fact that Crist’s veto of a controversial teacher “merit pay” bill appears to be a political winner, with voters supporting Crist’s decision by a 53-29 margin. Of more immediate concern is that, by a 55-31 margin, voters want Crist to veto a bill that would require women seeking abortions to undergo ultrasounds at their own expense. That number includes a 47-40 plurality among Republicans, and a massive 72-26 spread among indies. This really looks like a no-brainer for Crist if he’s looking to score some easy moderate cred.

    Meanwhile, check out the Dem primary numbers:

    Kendrick Meek (D): 33

    Maurice Ferre (D): 10

    Jeff Greene (D): 9

    Undecided: 41

    (MoE: ±6.5%)

    Meek at 33% is some truly weak stuff by this point.

    The gube race:

    Alex Sink (D): 32

    Bill McCollum (R): 34

    Undecided: 26

    (MoE: ±4%)

    After seeing McCollum lead Sink by wide-ish margins for months, I’ll take results like these. Sink manages to hold together Democrats almost as well as McCollum retains Republican support, while splitting independents down by the middle by 26-26. Not too shabby, if accurate.

    Finally, we have the Republican gubernatorial primary:

    Bill McCollum (R): 46

    Rick Scott (R): 22

    Paula Dockery (R): 3

    Undecided: 25

    (MoE: ±6.1%)

    I’d like to see chrome-domed creep Rick Scott pull even closer, but I’ll accept numbers like these for the time being. State Sen. Paula Dockery, meanwhile, has finally seen the writing on the wall, and pulled the plug on her pathetic campaign yesterday. Let’s hope she endorses Scott!

    SSP Daily Digest: 5/24 (Morning Edition)

  • AR-Sen: The SEIU is looking to finish the job, throwing down another $450K on behalf of Bill Halter. The union has spent almost $2 million dollars on this race so far.
  • AZ-Sen: Perhaps sensing some vulnerability on John McCain’s part, ex-state Rep. and former AZ health department chief Cathy Eden is jumping into the Democratic primary, where she’ll face former Tucson city councilman Rodney Glassman. Eden served in the state House in the early 1990s, then ran a brief campaign for the Dem nod for Arizona’s open Senate seat in 1994, dropping out before the primary. She’s also apparently tight with Janet Napolitano.
  • CT-Sen: So it turns out the NYT did have in its possession a copy of the full video of the Dick Blumenthal speech where he first said he served “during Vietnam,” only later to cloud things by saying he served “in Vietnam.” Yet despite having the entire video, the Times only posted a truncated clip showing the latter bit. Sheesh.
  • FL-Sen: The normally Dem-friendly Florida Education Association endorsed both Charlie Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek for Senate on Friday, as a thank-you to Crist for his veto of a controversial teacher “merit pay” bill. Crist tried to parlay that victory by attempting to steal another endorsement from Meek, enthusiastically courting the backing of the AFL-CIO. Unfortunately for Crist, the union decided to endorse Meek and only Meek. (J)
  • KY-Sen: You probably saw that Rand Paul abruptly cancelled a “Meet the Press” appearance scheduled for yesterday. What you may not have known is that the only other people in recent history to do so are Louis Farrakhan and Saudi Arabia’s Prince Bandar. Also, if you check out that first Politico link, you’ll see exactly how uncomfortable Paul’s post-primary “unity” roll-out has been. Even Trey Grayson couldn’t stay on-message long enough to avoid admitting to reporters that the whole thing has been “awkward.”
  • NV-Sen: This is the chicken that laid the golden egg: Nevada election officials have banned people from wearing chicken suits into polling places on primary day. Though Dems have been sending people in chicken costumes to Sue Lowden campaign events, no one had any apparent plans to do electioneering while so garbed. But what this means is another day of chickens in the news. I think that calls for some Chicken Dance!
  • PA-Sen: Weird – Joe Sestak repeated his claim that the Obama administration offered him a job so that he’d drop his challenge to Sen. Arlen Specter. The weird part is that White House press secretary Bob Gibbs, in response, said only that  “nothing inappropriate” happened, but didn’t confirm or deny Sestak’s claim.
  • WI-Sen: This is a surprise: One-time beer baron Dick Leinenkugel has dropped out of the race after less than a month. He endorsed teabaggy businessman Ron Johnson, which seems like an odd fit, since the Kugel had worked in Dem Gov. Jim Doyle’s administration (a pretty big and obvious knock against him in a GOP primary). Hey, Beer Man – we hardly knew ye! Meanwhile, Johnson picked up the GOP’s endorsement (by a wide margin) at the state Republican convention this past weekend. Terrence Wall and David Westlake are apparently still staying in the race, though.
  • FL-Gov: God bless chrome-domed creep Rick Scott. He’s blasting McCollum on the airwaves for failing to support Arizona’s new “papers, please” immigration law with sufficient gusto. Though I usually complain when tradmed accounts fail to detail the size of ad buys, since it’s Scott, we can probably assume there’s plenty of money behind it, as he’s already spent approximately eight zillion dollars on the race. You know McCollum is sitting at home with his head in his hands, just wondering, “What the hell did I do to deserve this shit?”
  • Meanwhile, third wheel state Sen. Paula Dockery said she wouldn’t put her personal wealth into her campaign – and also opined that she’d veto an abortion bill she voted for if she became governor. I’m not even sure John Kerry could come up with something that good.

  • ID-Gov: This is interesting – Dem Keith Allred raised $240K since January, outstripping Gov. Butch Otter’s $193K. Otter has $201K CoH while Allred has $130K.
  • WI-Gov: Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott Walker was forced to return $44K in illegal contributions for an amazingly simple reason: a railroad exec used company money to reimburse employee donations to Walker! Talk about shady – and dumb.
  • HI-01: Colleen Hanabusa made it clear she’s going to run again after Saturday’s lost to Charles Djou, but Ed Case sounded surprisingly non-committal, saying only that on Monday, he planned to “wake up, go body surfing and cut the lawn. We’ll figure out the rest of it later.”
  • IN-03: Ala NY Gov. David Paterson and the NY-29 race, Gov. Mitch Daniels is reportedly considering holding the IN-03 special election in November, on the same day as the regular general election, in order to save the state money.
  • VA-09: Morgan Griffith, majority leader of the state House of Delegates, won the GOP nod at a district convention this past weekend on the first ballot. I’m not sure if there even would be a primary here on account of the convention, but in any case, it sounds like the other Republican candidates are rallying behind Griffith, who will take on Dem Rep. Rick Boucher in the fall.
  • NY-State Sen.: New York Dems seem to have landed a good recruit against the 78-year-old Sen. Hugh Farley in the 44th district upstate. Susan Savage, chair of the Schenectady county lege, is entering the race in this 50-48 Obama district.
  • Fundraising: The WaPo has a great interactive graphic illustrating corporate PAC giving to Dems vs. Republicans, dating all the way back to 1989.
  • Polling: A new Pew study shows that question responses in landline + cell phone surveys are starting to differ from landline-only answers, sometimes as much as four or five points (and in one case, seven). In general, landline-only surveys tend to underestimate Democratic support.
  • Passings: One-time GOP Rep. Donald “Buz” Lukens died on Saturday at age 79. He was best known for his conviction for paying a 16-year-old girl for sex, which led to his 1990 loss in the GOP primary to none other than John Boehner.
  • WATN?: Former senator and general d-bag Bob Kerrey may go and head up the Motion Picture Association of America. He’d follow in the footsteps of another former member of Congress from the middle of the country, Dan Glickman.
  • SSP Daily Digest: 5/19

    CA-Sen: Good news for Tom Campbell, in the form of the Senate half of M4’s poll of the California GOP primary: he leads Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore, 33-28-15. (Of course, with his plans to briefly go dark to conserve funds, that gives Fiorina a chance to play catchup when the margin’s not that big.) Bad news for Campbell, though: the NRA has him in its metaphorical crosshairs, sending out a mailer to members attacking Campbell and, while not endorsing, offering kind words for Fiorina and DeVore.

    CT-Sen: This is going to make it a lot easier for Richard Blumenthal to make the case that the “in Vietnam” controversy is something of a cheap shot. A longer-form video release of the appearance (provided, ironically, by the Linda McMahon campaign, undercutting their own hatchet job) where the offending phrase occurred have him correctly referring to having “served in the military, during the Vietnam era” in the very same speech. That’s not stopping Vietnam vet Rob Simmons, who, sensing an opening, has rolled out web advertising with “Blumenthal Lied About Vietnam” in very large letters.

    Blumenthal is getting more explicit backing from Democratic bigwigs now, as his mea culpa/attempt to get back on the offense seems to have had the desired effect. Rep. Chris Murphy, the likeliest guy to pick up the pieces if Blumenthal had to bail out, offered his unqualified support; so too did Howard Dean. And here’s one thing that’s actually good about Rasmussen‘s one-day, no-callback samples: they can strike fast. They polled Connecticut, and while the trendlines aren’t appealing, they find Blumenthal still beating McMahon even in the heat of the moment before the story has had time to digest, and beating the other, unmoneyed GOP opponents by pretty wide margins. Markos has some really nice pushback against Rasmussen in general, today, asking why they always poll quickly when there’s the potential for a good Republican narrative but not when the narrative doesn’t fit (as seen in their failure to poll the Sorta Super-Tuesday primaries).

    FL-Sen: Charlie Crist has been trying to woo union support, starting with a speech at the state AFL-CIO convention this weekend. It’s another indication that he’s trying to move squarely onto Kendrick Meek’s turf and monopolize as much of the left-of-center vote as he can, now that he’s free from his GOP shackles. Meanwhile, quixotic Democratic candidate Jeff Greene has apparently been seen wooing Ukrainian strippers, in 2005 on his 145-foot yacht while cruising the Black Sea. Not so, claims his campaign spokesperson; he was busy traveling with his rabbi at the time instead.

    KY-Sen: In case you needed one more data point on how thin-skinned Rand Paul and how likely a meltdown from him is at some point before November, here’s an anecdote from last night: he refused to take the customary concession call from Trey Grayson, at least according to the Grayson camp.

    NC-Sen: Here’s a big score for Elaine Marshall: Third-place finisher Kenneth Lewis gave his backing to Marshall in her runoff against Cal Cunningham. This move isn’t so surprising, given that Lewis’s supporters, like Rep. Eva Clayton, were already gravitating toward Marshall, but it ought to steer much of Lewis’s African-American and youth base in her direction as well.

    NV-Sen: Three items, all of which are very, very bad for Sue Lowden. First, the Club for Growth finally weighed into the Senate primary, and they backed right-winger Sharron Angle (maybe not that surprising, since they backed her in the 2006 primary for NV-02). That ought to give Angle a further shot of adrenaline, though, on top of her Tea Party Express endorsement and polling momentum. Lowden is also still bogged down in controversy over her luxury bus, doubling-down on her claims that use of the $100K vehicle was leased despite also having stated elsewhere that the bus was “donated” (which means it would have needed to be reported as an in-kind contribution). That’s nothing, though, compared to the (by my count) quintupling-down on Chickens-for-Checkups, simultaneously trying to fight top Nevada journo Jon Ralston on the fact that, yes, people are bartering for health care while trying to claim that she never actually said anything about Chickencare at all.

    NY-Sen-B: The only GOP big name left who hadn’t said anything definitive about participating in the GOP Senate primary for the right to get creamed by Kirsten Gillibrand finally said a public “no.” Orange County Executive Ed Diana said he’ll stick with his current job, to which he was elected in November to a third term.

    UT-Sen: Looks like that teabaggers’ victory in Utah might be short-lived. Bob Bennett seems to be more interested than before in running as a write-in in the general (where, despite the complex dynamics of a write-in campaign, he faces better odds with the broader electorate than with the narrow slice of extremists running the GOP convention). We may know tomorrow what his plans are, as he emphasized “Stay tuned tomorrow.”

    WA-Sen: If Dino Rossi really is still interested in running for Senate, this isn’t a particularly good way of showing it. Rossi is scheduled to make a blockbuster appearance on May 25… to give opening remarks at a dinnertime seminar for local real estate investors focusing on strategies for profiting off foreclosures. Because nothing says “I’m a man of the people” than knowing all the ins and outs of how to profit off the people’s misery.

    AL-Gov: Artur Davis is out with an internal poll, that seems mostly oriented toward countering the sense that he’s losing ground among his African-American base. The poll shows Davis leading Democratic primary rival Ron Sparks 46-33. It also shows Davis leading 50-25 among African-Americans (despite the defections of some prominent local black groups), while trailing Sparks 42-41 among whites.

    FL-Gov: Bill McCollum is going to have to start taking moneybags Rick Scott seriously, and he’s striking hard, sending out a press release calling him an “embarrassment” and a “fraud,” presumably in reference to allegations leveled against Scott’s health care firm. Scott’s ginormous introductory ad buy is now estimating at $6.3 million.

    KS-Gov: Sam Brownback is drawing some heat for taking things out of context. Now, politicians take things out of context all the time, but his sleight-of-hand in attempting to fight efforts to more tightly regulate the business of car loans to military members may be a fridge too far.

    “CNN Money on May 13 reported that ‘Raj Date … agreed that the additional (Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection) regulation might cause some dealers to stop arranging loans,” Brownback said in the letter.

    But Brownback’s letter did not include the rest of Date’s comment, which was this, “There will be some dealers who say, ‘If I have to play by an honest set [of] rules, then I can’t be in this business anymore.’ I’m not going to shed any tears for these dealers.”

    MA-Gov: You may recall last week’s Rasmussen MA-Gov poll where, in an effort to find some sort of good news, they found that, if liberal activist Grace Ross somehow beat incumbent Dem Deval Patrick in the primary, she would lost to GOPer Charlie Baker. Well, it’s looking like Ross is in danger of not even making it onto the ballot. The state SoS says she has only a little more than half of the 10,000 signatures she needs; Ross promises an announcement tomorrow morning on her next step. (The upside for Patrick, if Ross qualifies for the primary though, would be $750K in public financing for his campaign, which he wouldn’t be entitled to if he were running unopposed.)

    ME-Gov: There’s been some ongoing controversy in the sleepy Maine governor’s race about how Republican candidate Steve Abbott (former CoS to Susan Collins) wound up with GOP voter lists, but this is a strange turn: the state Republican party chair, Charlie Webster, is now saying that Abbott’s camp flat-out “stole” it.

    GA-09: The special election to replace Nathan Deal (where GOPers Tom Graves and Lee Hawkins are in a runoff) seems to have winnowed the Republican field for the regularly-scheduled GOP primary, too. Former state Senate majority leader Bill Stephens has dropped out of contention in that field.

    HI-01: Even if something incredibly dramatic happens between now and Saturday’s drop-dead date in the special election in the 1st, things are still pretty much cast in stone. In the all-mail in election, now 43% of all ballots sent out have been returned.

    IN-03: State Sen. Marlin Stutzman (whose name rec is sky-high right now after running fairly well in the GOP Senate primary against Dan Coats) says that he’s going to strike while the iron is hot, and get into the race to replace resigning Rep. Mark Souder. Other GOPers confirming that they’ll run include state Rep. Randy Borror, Ft. Wayne city councilor Liz Brown, and recent primary loser Phil Troyer. Another recent primary loser, Bob Thomas, is a potential candidate.

    OH-16: After having found an excuse to hide behind the door the last time Barack Obama came to Ohio, Rep. John Boccieri was proudly with him when he visited Youngstown yesterday. Perhaps he can sense a bit of a turning of the tide? Troublingly, though, Senate candidate Lee Fisher wasn’t present.

    PA-12: PPP digs through the data from their last pre-election poll in the 12th and finds what may really have done the Republicans in. There’s one entity in the district even more unpopular than Barack Obama (who had 30% approval), and that’s Congressional Republicans, who were at a miserable 22/60. In nationalizing the election, Tim Burns tied himself to the nation’s least favorite people of all.

    PA-19: After having surviving his primary last night despite publicly seeking another job, it looks like Rep. Todd Platts exposed himself to all that danger for no reason at all. Platts announced yesterday that the Obama administration had let him know that he wasn’t going to be selected for the Government Accountability Office job he’d been angling for.

    CT-AG: Here’s one of the weirdest career crash-and-burns I’ve seen lately: SoS Susan Bysiewicz went in a few months from likely next Governor to somehow not even eligible to run for the lower-tier job she dropped down to. Connecticut’s Supreme Court unanimously ruled that she didn’t meet the criteria for legal experience required to become AG, reversing a lower court’s decision. Former Democratic state Sen. George Jepsen now has the AG job pretty much to himself. At any rate, with Bysiewicz now combing the “Help Wanted” section, that gives the Connecticut Dems a fallback plan for the Senate if Richard Blumenthal does need to bail out (although Bysiewicz may be seriously damaged at this point too).

    OR-St. House: Here are a couple races with interesting implications that I forgot to watch last night: two Republican state Reps. from the high-desert parts of Oregon (the state’s Republican stronghold) committed the unthinkable heresy of not only bipartisanship but supporting tax increases to close the state’s budget gap. Both Bob Jenson and Greg Smith survived their primaries, though, after teabaggers, right-to-lifers, and even their state House minority leader turned their wrath against them.

    Arizona: One other election result from last night that most people, us included, seemed to overlook was Proposition 100 in Arizona. In a surprise, at least to those people who think that it’s a rabidly anti-tax year (which would be those people who didn’t pay any attention to Measures 66 and 67 earlier this year in Oregon), the people of this red state voted by a fairly wide margin for a temporary sales tax increase as part of a package of changes to close the budget gap. It’s a victory for Jan Brewer, actually, who backed the plan (perhaps feeling safer to do so, having solidified her position with her support for the “papers please” law).

    1994: When you have a wave, a lot of dead wood washes up on the beach. Prompted by ’94 alum Mark Souder’s mini-scandal and resignation, Dana Milbank looks back at the wide array of scoundrels and rogues who were swept in in 1994.

    History: History’s only barely on the side of Blanche Lincoln when it comes to runoffs. It turns out that the person who finishes first in a runoff wins 72% of the time, but when that’s limited only to runoffs in primaries, the success rate is only 55%… and Lincoln’s victory over Bill Halter last night was a particularly close one.

    FL-Sen: Muck on Meek

    Kendrick Meek has been the squeaky clean one so far in the Florida Senate race, even as Marco Rubio got his halo tarnished by the RPOF’s credit card scandal. That’s changed a bit with revelations over the weekend:

    As U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek championed a proposed biopharmaceutical complex for Liberty City in 2003, his Miami chief of staff received $13,000 from the project’s developer to help the aide buy a house, newly released police records show.

    The developer, Dennis Stackhouse, is now awaiting trial, accused of stealing nearly $1 million from the failed Poinciana Park project that was supposed to revitalize the blighted Liberty City community. Nothing was ever built.

    The police records show that Stackhouse engaged in an elaborate campaign to curry favor with Meek as the builder sought the congressman’s help in obtaining federal funding for the project. In addition to helping the aide’s house purchase, Stackhouse hired Meek’s mother, former U.S. Rep. Carrie Meek, paying her $90,000 in consulting fees and paying for a Cadillac Escalade for her to drive.

    Meek twice sought congressional earmarks to benefit the project but has insisted that was unrelated to his mother’s work for the developer.

    Billionaire primary challenger Jeff Greene, who just got into the Democratic primary a few weeks ago, quickly seized on this in order to get some traction in the race, calling for a House Ethics investigation. The Meek camp quickly fired back, trying to turn the subject back to Greene’s pioneering (and disastrous) use of credit default swaps.

    It’s unclear how big a deal this will wind up being for Meek, who’s been struggling to find his footing after Charlie Crist’s switch to an independent bid (as seen in the polls, today’s Rasmussen being a prime example). With Crist repositioned and sounding many Democratic-sounding notes now, a number of potential backers are sounding ambivalent… or outright gone, in the case of Democratic state Rep. Joseph Abruzzo, who’s made clear he’s backing Crist. The link also lists a number of other Dems on the Gold Coast who are publicly displaying their ambivalence or worse; a key example is former Rep. Robert Wexler CoS Eric Johnson, who’s now about to start working on Crist’s campaign. (Wexler himself has yet to endorse Meek, for that matter.)

    Of course, not everything’s a bed of roses for Crist these days. Crist is still drawing a lot of heat for his decision not to refund campaign contributions to Republican donors, and was heckled loudly about it at the opening of his new Tampa campaign headquarters.

    SSP Daily Digest: 5/6 (Afternoon Edition)

    AR-Sen: Americans for Job Security strikes back! They’re launching a new ad against Bill Halter on the outsourcing front… well, it’s pretty much the same ad, just not as, y’know, openly racist. They’re spending almost $500K on the TV ad buy, supplementing the large amounts they’ve already dropped in this race.

    FL-Sen: Mason-Dixon has a new post-party-switch poll of the Senate race. They find Charlie Crist with a narrow lead, at 38, compared with Marco Rubio at 32 and Kendrick Meek at 19, but they also warn that Crist’s sitting on a house of cards, as more than half of Crist’s support is from Democrats and that may erode as Meek gets better known (Meek is at 40% unknown). I trust Mason-Dixon more than the three other pollsters who’ve also released results this week, but they all seem to be reaching a sort of consensus on this race (Rasmussen at 38C-34R-17M, McLaughlin at 33C-29R-15M, and POS for Crist at 36C-28R-23M). Meanwhile, the candidates are fumbling around trying to pin down their respective bases with various flipfloppery: Rubio is walking back his previous disdain for Arizona’s immigration law, now saying he’s all for it, while the occasionally pro-life Crist is prepared to veto a bill requiring pregnant women to view a fetal ultrasound before being able to have an abortion.

    IL-Sen: This is probably good news for Alexi Giannoulias, although it was more a question of when it would happen rather than if it would happen, given the media’s tendency to get distracted by the next shiny object. A local TV reporter more or less called out Mark Kirk for incessant focus on the Broadway Bank scandal and asked him what else he was planning to talk about in the future, perhaps indicative of a growing media boredom with the story.

    PA-Sen/Gov: Today’s tracker in the Muhlenberg/Morning Call poll shows a narrower spread in the Senate race: Arlen Specter leads Joe Sestak 45-40. In the Governor’s primary, Dan Onorato is at 34, Joe Hoeffel is at 12, and Anthony Williams and Jack Wagner are at 8. Meanwhile, the Sestak camp is hitting Specter with a new TV ad focusing on what’s probably Specter’s biggest vulnerability in the Democratic primary: the fact that he was a Republican Senator for, y’know, three decades or so. The ad’s replete with lots of photos of Specter and G.W. Bush, together again. The tightening race and aggressive tone has the Pennsylvania Dem establishment worried, and state party chair T.J. Rooney is sounding the alarm, calling a possible Sestak win “cataclysmic” and making various electability arguments in favor of Specter.

    AL-Gov: We don’t have any actual hard numbers to report, but local pollster Gerald Johnson (of Capital Survey Research Center) has been leaking reports that there’s significant tightening in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, with Ag Commissioner Ron Sparks moving within the margin of error of Rep. Artur Davis. Davis’s numbers seem to have dropped following his anti-HCR vote. Meanwhile, on the GOP side, Tim James‘ attention-grabbing, race-baiting ad seems to have had its desired effect. He just released an internal poll showing him taking the lead, with him at 26, Roy Moore at 21, Bradley Byrne at 20, and Robert Bentley at 7. (The previous James internal had Moore at 27, Byrne at 18, and James at 14.)

    CA-Gov (pdf): Another gubernatorial primary where there’s some tightening is on the Republican side is the GOP primary in California. Steve Poizner is touting an internal poll from POS that his him within 10 points of the once-unstoppable Meg Whitman, 38-28. It seems like Whitman lost a whole lot of inevitability once someone than her actually started advertising on TV, too.

    CT-02: That was fast… it was only a few days ago that former TV anchor Janet Peckinpaugh’s interest in running the 2nd became known. Now she’s officially launched her campaign, with Connecticut’s nominating convention fast approaching (May 21).

    PA-12: The DCCC paid for another $170K in media buys on behalf of Mark Critz, bringing their total investment in this special election up to $641K. (J) The GOP is bringing one more big gun to the district to campaign on Tim Burns’s behalf, too: Rep. Mike Pence.

    VA-05: In the wake of his surprising decision to join the Constitution Party, ex-Rep. Virgil Goode had to clarify several things: most notably, he said that, no, he’s not running in the 5th this year as a Constitution Party candidate (or as anything else), although he wouldn’t rule out a future run. Furthermore, he isn’t leaving the Republican Party; he doesn’t view membership as mutually exclusive. Meanwhile, Politico is wondering what’s up between the NRCC and the establishment candidate in the 5th, state Sen. Robert Hurt. Hurt hasn’t been added to the NRCC’s Young Guns list, despite their tendency to add anyone with a pulse everywhere else. The NRCC hasn’t added any names in this district and says they’d prefer to wait until after the primary — although in other contested primaries, they’ve added multiple names to the list, which suggests that they’re trying to lay low in this race, which has become a rather emblematic flash point in the establishment/teabagger rift this year.

    WA-03: Both Democratic candidates in the 3rd nailed down labor endorsements in the last few days. Denny Heck got the endorsement of the Boeing Machinists (maybe the state’s most powerful union) and the local IBEW, while Craig Pridemore got the nod from the pulp and paper workers.

    WI-07: With David Obey’s surprising retirement announcement yesterday, we’re moving the open seat in the 7th to “Tossup” status (from Likely Dem). On the one hand, it’s a D+3 district with a solid Democratic bench of state legislators, but on the other hand, GOP challenger Sean Duffy is sitting on a lot of money and establishment support, and there’s, of course, the nature of the year. CQ lists a whole herd of possible Democratic successors in the district: the big name on the list is probably Russ Decker, the state Senate’s majority leader. Others include state Sens. Julie Lassa and Pat Kreitlow, state Rep. Donna Seidel, and attorney Christine Bremer. Another area state Sen., Robert Jauch, has already taken himself out of the running. And one other Republican isn’t ruling out a bid, which could complicate Duffy’s path: state Rep. Jerry Petrowski.

    CA-Init: It looks like Californians will get the chance to vote on an initiative that proposes to move congressional redistricting to the same independent commission process as legislative redistricting, as the initiative just qualified for the ballot. I’m genuinely torn: on the one hand, the naïve idealist in me admits some fondness for compactly-drawn swingy districts, but on the other hand, Dems have a good shot at controlling the trifecta in California and with the ability to wring some additional Dem-leaning seats out of the map, control of the 2012 House may well be at stake here.

    NRCC: The NRCC promoted 13 members of its Young Guns framework to the top tier (the “Young Guns” level). This includes not only the aforementioned Sean Duffy, but also the winners of the three contested primaries in Indiana… and a surprise in the form of Morgan Griffith, who’s taking on Rep. Rick Boucher in VA-09 but who’s still sitting on a five-figure cash stash and on the wrong end of a 22:1 CoH ratio.

    Tell Rubio and Crist: ‘No New Drilling in the Gulf’ (Petition)

    I’ve always opposed misguided efforts that threaten Florida’s economy and environment by haphazardly drilling offshore. The vast oil spill off the coast of Louisiana – which led Gov. Crist to declare a state of emergency in several Panhandle counties – confirms this sad truth: the cost for error in Florida is too great. If thousands of barrels of oil spill over into our coasts, our economy, environment and military will all bear the brunt of massive corporate irresponsibility.

    Marco Rubio stands by his support for expanding offshore drilling in the Gulf. “My message won’t change,” he said in Clearwater last week when asked about the oil spill. And while Charlie Crist now says he opposes new oil drilling, it wasn’t that long ago he was open to drilling closer to the coast.  On the other hand, I remain a firm proponent of ending our reliance on foreign oil and harnessing clean energy, but who knows what the long-term impact of this spill will be for our state. We also get the news now that an oil drilling rig overturned 80 miles off the coast of New Orleans. We can’t afford to take more and more of these types of chances by expanding drilling in the Gulf and bringing it closer and closer to the coast that is so important for Floridians and their livelihoods.  The cost to Florida families could be permanent and the more we expand drilling, the more likely we are to see more of these types of accidents.

    It’s just not worth the risk, espcially for such a low payoff.  Expanded drilling won’t solve our energy problems.  I will continue to fight to protect Florida’s economy and deal with the aftermath of this disaster.  I’m the only candidate in this race who has been consistently against more drilling.  Stand with me in calling for a moratorium on further expansion of oil drilling in the Gulf.  Sign my petition and tell the “drill, baby, drill” crowd that you aren’t going to take any more chances with our environment or our economy.

    Tell Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio that you don’t want any more new drilling in the Gulf.  Once we gather up your signatures, we’ll deliver them to Charlie and Marco to let them know how Floridians feel about this vital issue to our state.