I split the country into six regions for political analysis purposes. Three of the regions trend Democratic (Northeast, Pacific, Great Lakes) while three favor the GOP (Plains, Mountains, South). For purposes of this discusssion, I track House seats (number D, number R, % D), Senate seats (number D, number R, % D), Governorships, and Presidential voting in 2004 as well as the number of Bush Dogs (per the list on Open Left) and the percentage of the region’s House Democrats who are Bush Dogs.
Not surprisingly, the more solidly Democratic a region is, the less likely it is to elect a Bush Dog Democrat. Only two of the Northeast’s 68 House Democrats are Bush Dogs (2.9%) while 19 of 58 Southern Democrats are Bush Dogs (32.7%).
The Northeast is the most solidly Democratic region in the country and seems to be swinging even more blue. The region has the most House Democrats (68), the greatest number of Democratic pickups in 2006 (12 House seats/ 11 GOP House seats lost), and every one of the 11 states plus the District of Columbia went for Kerry in 2004. It even claims the greatest number of governorships (9) and the highest percentage of Democratic governors (81.8%).
Surprisingly, the Northeast still offers Democrats a lot of opportunities in 2008. The region ‘s 24 House Republicans continue to scatter. Five have announced they will not run for re-election and a sixth, Wayne Gilchrest, has been defeated in a primary by a right wing Club For Growth candidate in Maryland.
One can make a case against Vito Fossella (NY-13) who faces a voter registration deficit and has less cash than a possible general election opponent. Scott Garrett (NJ-5) is an extremist who has been slowly sinking since first elected. Jim Gerlach not only comes from a tough district but from one of only five GOP-held districts in which George W. Bush got a lower percentage of the vote against John Kerry than against Al Gore.
Democrat Eric Massa has more money than Randy Kuhl in NY-29 and gave Kuhl a tight race as a virtual unknown in 2006. Jim Himes has also outraised Chris Shays who is looking at his third nail biter in a row with a lot less national bucks to go around. Frank LoBiondo’s Jersey district (NJ-2) has a Democratic lean and several promising local candidates are available and might be enticed into the race. Sam Bennet in PA-15 has a similarly friendly district and a relatively weak opponent. Peter King is also defending a tough district as the last Republican from Long Island. He, too, has no opponent as of yet but the rumors are less encouraging for local Democrats.
Add it all up, and the Republicans are looking at perhaps ten safe seats in this election in an 11 state region. And any Democrat elected is likely to be a moderate to full out progressive. The only two Bush Dog Democratys from the region represent rural districts tin Pennsylvania that are not culturally part of the region.
The Pacific states are almost as friendly on the Presidential level as the northeast with only Alaska’s three electoral votes going for George W. Bush. That disguises a deep divide between the Democratic coastal regions and the Republican interiors. The region has the second highest percentage of Democratic House members (46 D, 24R, 65.7%) and the second lowest percentage of Bush Dog Democrats (2 of 46, 4.3%).
The contrast between the Northeast in 2006 and the Pacific was startling. Democrats in the region had high hopes but managed to pick up just one seat (Jerry McNerney defeated Richard Pombo). Democrats came close but came away empty in WA-8, CA-50, and CA-4. This cycle’s top targets include WA-8, CA-4, and AK-At Large. Two of the region’s three Republican Senators, Oregon’s Gordon Smith and Alaska’s aging and heavily investigated Ted Stevens are also being challenged this go around.
Three or four California House seats ooze corruption and should have at least the potential to be competitive but, as of this time, I am not too optimistic about seats like CA-50 (Bilbray), CA-26 (Dreier), CA-46 (Rohrabacher), CA-45 (Mary Bono Mack), or CA-49 (Issa).
The Great Lakes is the least Democratic Democratic region. In fact, heavy gerrymanders by the GOP in Ohio and Michigan gave the GOP the slight edge in the region’s House selegations until Bill Foster’s election to Denny Hastert’s old seat in the special election.
One of the really encouraging things in this region is that a great number of GOP seats stayed on the table after 2006. Republicans may have held on but they retired in droves leaving huge openings in Illinois and Ohio. Hastert’s seat has already flipped and the 38-38 Democratic edge will likely expand. Democrats have a great shot in OH-15 and certainly a good chance in OH-1, OH-2 and OH-16. At least two GOP Michigan seats (MI-7, MI-9) are being vigorously contested this cycle and seats like IL-18, IL-11, and IL-6 are up for grabs. Jim Ramstad’s old seat in Minnesota is possible and some people seem to think that Michelle Bachman’s seat (MN-6, I think) is also in play.
Last cycle, Democrats elected three new Bush Dog members from Indiana and two from Ohio. That gave the region’s Democrats a purplisch cast (9 of 39 Democrats are Bush Dogs,23.1%). Most of the contested seats this time around represent more urban or at least suburban areas and the results will probably be more reliable votes as well as more Democratic members. Nine of the region’s 12 Senators are Democrats and Minnesots Republicn Norm Coleman is facing a tough challenge this cycle.
That leaves us with the three Republican leaning regions. Hopes are highest for the Mountains. Last cycle Democrats picked up two seats in Arizona and one in Colorado. This year, hopes center more on New Mexico (two seats) and Rick Renzi’s seat in Arizona. A three seat piclup would change the delegation from 11-17 in favor of the Republicans to a flat footed tie. Both Nevada seats and the At Large seats in Wyoming and Montana plus ID-2 have also been mentioned.
Bill Clinton carried three of these states (Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico in 1996 and five in 1992 when Ross Perot muddied up the waters (AZ, NM, NV, MT, CO).
Democrats have good chances for a Senate seat in New Mexico and one in Colorado. That would even up the region’s Senate vote to 7-7.
The Plains is a rgion greatly helped by the oddities of US politics. Iowa’s caucuses make the region important to a whole corps of Presidential wannabes in the US Senate. Two Senate seats a piece certainly help the Dakotas.
With the notable exceptions of Iowa and Missouri most of the rest of the area produces either conservative Democrats or very conservative Republicans.
The South remains the Republicans key region although their electoral strength has probably peaked out. Racially-based gerrymanders have created a series of sprawling majority minority districts that have been used to dilute Democratic strength in Congress. No clearer example exists than the combo of VA-2 and VA-3. Two more geographically compact districts would produce two pretty strong Democratic districts. Instead, VA-2 skips many of the black areas in the VA. Beach-Norfolk Hampton roads area and Bobby Scott’s third district edges aroundto include most of Richmond a lot of rural areas and strategically picked, heavily Democratic areas of Hampton Roads.
Last cycle, Republicans lost two seats in Florida, one in North Carolina, one in Kentucky, and two in Texas. Their current 82-58 edge in the South may well shrink again as Democrats guard several seats in Texas and two in Georgia but eye open seats in Louisiana and rematches in FL-13 and NC-8 as well as actual opportunities in places like Virginia and Kentucky.
Southern Democrats provide the margin that put Democrats back in the Speaker’s chair and the Senate Majority Leader role. This remains a heavily Republican area for Presidential elections (Republicans won all 13 states for 166 electoral votes). If Democrats can win three or four of these states they most certainly will win the Presidential election (Virginia, Florida, Arkansas, West Virginia are leading candidates) in part because any candidate who does that is likely to win Ohio as well.
As for the depressing numbers:
House (D 58,R 82, 41.4%)
Senate (D 7, R 19, 26.9%)
Governors (D 6, R 7, 46.2%)
Pr4sidential (13-0 on states, 166-0 on electoral votes)