Tim Holden (D-inc): 54
Sheila Dow-Ford (D): 27
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±4.9%)David Argall (R): 21
Frank Ryan (R): 17
John First (R): 7
Allen Griffth (R): 5
Undecided: 47
(MoE: ±4.3%)
While Dow-Ford probably can’t unseat Holden, these are some uninspiring numbers for the incumbent, who only gets 38% re-elects. Obama’s job approval is 32-56.
• Tonight’s Preview: Tonight’s something of a small palate-cleanser in between the meaty primaries of last Tuesday and next Tuesday. The main event is WV-01, where there are competitive primaries on both sides of the aisle. Most of the attention is focused on the Democratic side, though, where Rep. Alan Mollohan could be the first House incumbent to get bounced out this cycle. Despite already being rather conservative, he’s been challenged from the right by state Sen. Mike Oliverio, who’s attacking Mollohan over not fighting hard enough against cap and trade, and for his earmarking. Both camps have released internal polls giving them the lead. On the GOP side, there’s a three-way fight between the establishment fave, former state Rep. and state GOP chair David McKinley, former state Sen. Sarah Minear, and businessman Mac Warner. Warner has gotten nailed for tax liens on his businesses, but may benefit from the infighting between the two others. Polls in WV close at 7:30 pm ET.
The special election to replace Nathan Deal in GA-09 is also tonight. With Democrats a non-factor in this R+28 district, but a crowded field of various Republicans, the likeliest outcome is a June 8 runoff between the top two conservative Republicans, most likely former state Rep. Tom Graves (the Club for Growth and FreedomWorks pick) and former state Sen. Lee Hawkins (who seems to generate less enthusiasm on the ground but who has some geographical advantages). TheUnknown285 also points out a handful of other legislative special elections in Georgia today, all of which are very unlikely to change hands; the most interesting may be in SD-42, where Jimmy Carter’s grandson may be able to take over a blue seat in Atlanta’s suburbs.
Finally, two other things you might watch, if you want to get way down in the weeds: Nebraska is the only other state with regularly scheduled primaries for today, although the only one worth a look is the GOP side in NE-02, where Rep. Lee Terry faces a teabagger with some money, Matt Sakalosky. Terry is likely to win, but the margin will be worth watching, as he’s one of the Dems’ few offense targets this year. And New Jersey has a host of mayoral elections today. The big name here is Newark’s Cory Booker, expected to face no trouble with re-election; an open seat in Trenton may provide some interest, though.
UPDATE: Marcus in comments points out a big miss on my part: the state Senate seat in Massachusetts left vacant by Scott Brown is up for special election tonight, too. (Rather than a boring number, it has a name: “Norfolk, Bristol, and Middlesex.” Still not quite as mellifluous as a lot of the British constituencies that we all got a crash course in last week though… especially “Vale of Glamorgan.”) Democratic physician Peter Smulowitz (a netroots fave who won an upset in the primary) faces off against GOP state Rep. Richard Ross. There’s also a safe blue seat up tonight that will shortly belong to Dem Sal DiDomenico.
• NH-Sen: It looks like those missing Kelly Ayotte e-mails, which are at the center of the growing questions surrounding the collapse of Financial Resources Mortgage and what the AG’s office did (or didn’t) do, may be retrievable after all via backup systems. State legislative hearings into the matter are beginning on Friday, so this issue could get bigger in coming weeks.
• NY-Sen, NY-Gov (pdf): Marist has a slew of data out of New York, all of it good for the Dems. Kirsten Gillibrand breaks 50% against all of her GOP contenders, leading Joe DioGuardi 50-30, Bruce Blakeman 52-28, and David Malpass 52-28. DioGuardi leads the GOP primary at 31, to 13 for Blakeman and 12 for Malpass. Chuck Schumer also has little trouble with his one announced opponent, Jay Townsend; he leads 66-27. On the gubernatorial side, Andrew Cuomo wins just as convincingly. He leads Rick Lazio 65-25, Steve Levy 63-25, and Carl Paladino 67-22.
• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): Today’s Muhlenberg tracker sustains the Joe Sestak lead over Arlen Specter, at 47-43. In the gubernatorial race, Anthony Williams seems to be emerging as the closest rival to Dan Onorato; Onorato still has a big edge, though, leading Williams 33-15 with Joe Hoeffel at 10 and Jack Wagner at 9. Word is that Franklin & Marshall will also have a poll out tomorrow giving Sestak the edge. Barack Obama appears in the newest TV ad on Specter’s behalf, but it sounds less likely that Obama, always careful about overextending his political capital, will be actually showing up to campaign for Specter. Finally, if you haven’t already, it’s worth a look at Chris Bowers‘ analysis of Specter vs. Sestak on general election electability (as you might expect, it boils down to Specter being universally-known and Sestak having the upside).
• UT-Sen: Bob Bennett still isn’t ruling out a write-in candidacy in November, and will continue to weigh his options. Bob, for what it’s worth, everyone here at SSP agrees that a write-in candidacy would be pure awesome.
• WA-Sen: Some more investment sleaze-by-association for Dino Rossi. He was one of the initial investors who established the Eastside Commercial Bank in 2001, a bank that’s currently teetering on the edge after the FDIC required it to raise another $3 million in the wake unsound lending practices. He didn’t have any managerial control over the bank, but it’s one more paper cut for Rossi.
• CT-Gov: Former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy announced his running mate choice today: state Comptroller Nancy Wyman. Rival Ned Lamont chose Simsbury First Selectwoman Mary Glassman (Malloy’s 2006 running mate) last week.
• OR-Gov, OR-Sen: SurveyUSA is out with a whole new gubernatorial primary poll (the one that got released last week was taken nearly a month ago; I’m not sure what the delay was about). Although the number of undecideds is dropping, the margins between the candidates is staying pretty much the same. For the Dems, John Kitzhaber is leading Bill Bradbury 59-25. On the GOP side, Chris Dudley leads Allen Alley 42-24 (while hopeless third and fourth wheels John Lim and Bill Sizemore are at 8 each). They also threw in Senate primary numbers, finding that Ron Wyden is pulling in 80% against some nobodies on the Dem side while the GOP side is a big question mark. Law professor Jim Huffman (the establishment’s choice to be sacrificial lamb) is at 20, while some dude Tom Stutzman isn’t that far behind at 13.
• FL-02: Here’s a race that wasn’t on anyone’s competitive list that’s suddenly bursting into view. An NRCC internal poll (by the Tarrance Group) that’s from mid-April but just got leaked to Chris Cillizza has no-name funeral home director Steve Southerland leading Rep. Allen Boyd, and not just squeaking it out, but up by a 52-37 margin. Boyd has a huge cash edge ($1.5 mil to Southerland’s $157K), although he’ll need to spend some first fighting a primary challenge against Al Lawson.
• HI-01: With news that the DCCC is pulling out, and polls giving a small but consistent edge to Charles Djou in the f’d-up jungle-style special election, SSP is moving our rating of this race to “Leans Republican” from “Tossup.”
• MI-01: Amidst all the hullaballoo over Connie Saltonstall’s dropout yesterday (wait, what’s the opposite of “hullaballoo?” how about “yawning?”), we missed another detail in the Democratic primary to succeed Bart Stupak: so too did Matt Gillard. That leaves state Rep. Gary McDowell as the only candidate left in the field, on this the last day of Michigan filings. That was easy.
• MN-06: We at SSP love us some taxes, but we’re also big fans of a certain something called “optics,” and state Senate DFLers created a mammoth screwup that, appearance-wise, really harms Taryl Clark’s chances against Michele Bachmann. Clark got stuck holding the Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky bag after she wound up casting the deciding vote in favor of a deficit-closing package that includes an income tax increase, after the vote was held open for her for 20 minutes deadlocked at 33-33. It may be a moot point as Tim Pawlenty has promised to veto, but still… (In her defense, Clark says she was delayed by a phone call with her son’s doctor.)
• NJ-03: Jon Runyan is getting accused of a “Rose Garden” strategy of campaigning in the GOP primary, sitting still and trading on his inevitability instead of, y’know, actually going out and debating with conservative opponent Justin Murphy. The John Adler camp is noticing too, and is out with their own “Where’s Jon?” video.
• RI-01: There’s a third contender in the Democratic primary to take over the 1st from retiring Rep. Patrick Kennedy. State Rep. David Segal is getting into the race, joining Providence mayor David Cicilline and former state Dem party chair William Lynch.
• WA-03: You keep hearing from Beltway media that state Rep. Jaime Herrera is the person to beat in the GOP primary for this open seat, but other than ex-Sen. Slade Gorton and her ex-boss, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rogers, I’m hard-pressed to think of any endorsements of consequence for her. David Castillo has lined up most of the local support within the 3rd, and now he got endorsements from a variety of local leaders in the evangelical community, including Joe Fuiten (probably the most prominent Christian right leader in Washington) and ex-Rep. Randy Tate (who briefly led the national Christian Coalition after getting bounced out of office).
• WI-07: Here’s another primary in the north woods where the Dems seem to have coalesced and it’s all over but the shouting. At the same time as state Sen. Julie Lassa was officially announcing that she’d run to succeed retiring Rep. David Obey, fellow state Sens. Russ Decker and Pat Kreitlow announced they wouldn’t run. Perhaps making the difference: Lassa’s seat isn’t up for re-election this year, so it’s a freebie for her, while Decker and Kreitlow’s seats are up. With Dems holding an 18-15 margin in the Senate and the GOP on the offensive, it’s the safe choice not to open up seats in the Senate too.
• NRSC: Hmmm, speaking of optics, the NRSC is hosting an “intimate” (Hotline’s words; I don’t know if that’s how the NRSC billed it) fundraiser with the under-investigation John Ensign as host. No word yet on whether anyone plans to show up.
• DE-AG: Best wishes for a quick recovery to Beau Biden, who’s currently hospitalized today after a minor stroke. The 41-year-old Biden, who passed on a Senate race this year, is expected to fully recover.
AR-Sen (4/26, likely voters, 3/30 in parentheses):
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 29 (36)
John Boozman (R): 57 (51)
Some other: 9 (6)
Not sure: 5 (7)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 30 (35)
Kim Hendren (R): 51 (51)
Some other: 11 (5)
Not sure: 8 (8)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 31 (36)
Gilbert Baker (R): 53 (51)
Some other: 12 (6)
Not sure: 4 (7)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 32 (36)
Curtis Coleman (R): 52 (48)
Some other: 8 (7)
Not sure: 7 (8)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 31 (35)
Jim Holt (R): 54 (51)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 9 (7)Bill Halter (D): 31 (34)
John Boozman (R): 56 (48)
Some other: 7 (8)
Not sure: 7 (11)Bill Halter (D): 33 (34)
Kim Hendren (R): 45 (42)
Some other: 13 (10)
Not sure: 9 (13)Bill Halter (D): 33 (36)
Gilbert Baker (R): 48 (44)
Some other: 10 (7)
Not sure: 9 (12)Bill Halter (D): 37 (37)
Curtis Coleman (R): 43 (40)
Some other: 11 (10)
Not sure: 9 (13)Bill Halter (D): 31 (34)
Jim Holt (R): 49 (43)
Some other: 12 (9)
Not sure: 8 (14)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
AZ-Gov (4/27, likely voters, 4/16 in parentheses):
Terry Goddard (D): 40 (40)
Jan Brewer (R-inc): 48 (44)
Some other: 7 (9)
Not sure: 5 (6)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CO-Sen (5/3, likely voters, 4/5 in parentheses):
Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41 (41)
Jane Norton (R): 48 (46)
Some other: 5 (5)
Not sure: 6 (8)Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41 (40)
Ken Buck (R): 48 (44)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 7 (12)Michael Bennet (D-inc): 42 (39)
Tom Wiens (R): 44 (45)
Some other: 5 (4)
Not sure: 9 (12)Andrew Romanoff (D): 39 (38)
Jane Norton (R): 46 (49)
Some other: 6 (5)
Not sure: 8 (8)Andrew Romanoff (D): 40 (37)
Ken Buck (R): 45 (45)
Some other: 5 (4)
Not sure: 11 (13)Andrew Romanoff (D): 40 (38)
Tom Wiens (R): 45 (45)
Some other: 4 (6)
Not sure: 11 (11)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CT-Gov (5/4, likely voters, 4/1 in parentheses):
Ned Lamont (D): 42 (37)
Thomas Foley (R): 35 (44)
Some other: 11 (7)
Not sure: 13 (13)Ned Lamont (D): 48 (41)
Michael Fedele (R): 28 (38)
Some other: 9 (9)
Not sure: 15 (12)Dan Malloy (D): 38 (35)
Thomas Foley (R): 35 (44)
Some other: 11 (8)
Not sure: 16 (14)Dan Malloy (D): 44 (40)
Michael Fedele (R): 27 (37)
Some other: 10 (7)
Not sure: 20 (16)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CT-Sen (5/4, likely voters, 4/7 in parentheses):
Richard Blumenthal (D): 52 (55)
Linda McMahon (R): 39 (35)
Some other: 6 (3)
Not sure: 4 (6)Richard Blumenthal (D): 55 (52)
Rob Simmons (R): 32 (38)
Some other: 5 (4)
Not sure: 8 (6)Richard Blumenthal (D): 54 (58)
Peter Schiff (R): 29 (32)
Some other: 6 (4)
Not sure: 11 (6)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
DE-Sen (4/29, likely voters, 2/22 in parentheses):
Chris Coons (D): 32 (32)
Mike Castle (R): 55 (53)
Some other: 7 (8)
Not sure: 7 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
FL-Sen (5/3, likely voters, 4/21 in parentheses):
Kendrick Meek (D): 17 (22)
Marco Rubio (R): 34 (37)
Charlie Crist (I): 38 (30)
Not sure: 11 (11)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
GA-Gov (4/28, likely voters, 3/17 in parentheses):
Roy Barnes (D): 43 (41)
John Oxendine (R): 45 (41)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 6 (11)Roy Barnes (D): 39 (40)
Nathan Deal (R): 46 (43)
Some other: 7 (5)
Not sure: 8 (13)Roy Barnes (D): 41 (39)
Karen Handel (R): 42 (42)
Some other: 7 (5)
Not sure: 10 (14)Roy Barnes (D): 42 (40)
Eric Johnson (R): 37 (38)
Some other: 8 (6)
Not sure: 13 (16)Thurbert Baker (D): 34
John Oxendine (R): 44
Some other: 9
Not sure: 13Thurbert Baker (D): 31
Nathan Deal (R): 47
Some other: 9
Not sure: 13Thurbert Baker (D): 36
Karen Handel (R): 44
Some other: 5
Not sure: 15Thurbert Baker (D): 35
Eric Johnson (R): 38
Some other: 9
Not sure: 18
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IA-Gov (4/29, likely voters, 3/17 in parentheses):
Chet Culver (D-inc): 38 (36)
Terry Branstad (R): 53 (52)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 3 (6)Chet Culver (D-inc): 41 (40)
Bob Vander Plaats (R): 45 (42)
Some other: 9 (8)
Not sure: 5 (11)Chet Culver (D-inc): 43 (40)
Rod Roberts (R): 41 (38)
Some other: 9 (10)
Not sure: 7 (13)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IA-Sen (4/29, likely voters, 3/17 in parentheses):
Roxanne Conlin (D): 40 (36)
Charles Grassley (R-inc): 53 (55)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 4 (5)Bob Krause (D): 31 (31)
Charles Grassley (R-inc): 57 (57)
Some other: 4 (4)
Not sure: 8 (8)Tom Fiegen (D): 30 (28)
Charles Grassley (R-inc): 57 (57)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IL-Gov (4/28, likely voters, 4/5 in parentheses):
Pat Quinn (D-inc): 38 (38)
Bill Brady (R): 45 (45)
Some other: 5 (7)
Not sure: 11 (10)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IL-Sen (4/28, likely voters, 3/ in parentheses):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38 (37)
Mark Kirk (R): 46 (41)
Some other: 5 (8)
Not sure: 12 (13)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IN-Sen (5/5-6, likely voters, 4/13-14 in parentheses):
Brad Ellsworth (D): 36 (33)
Dan Coats (R): 51 (54)
Some other: 6 (5)
Not sure: 8 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
KY-Sen (4/28, likely voters, 3/31 in parentheses):
Jack Conway (D): 38 (36)
Rand Paul (R): 47 (50)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 10 (11)Jack Conway (D): 38 (32)
Trey Grayson (R): 43 (52)
Some other: 8 (5)
Not sure: 12 (11)Dan Mongiardo (D): 32 (37)
Rand Paul (R): 48 (52)
Some other: 8 (3)
Not sure: 12 (8)Dan Mongiardo (D): 31 (33)
Trey Grayson (R): 45 (53)
Some other: 10 (5)
Not sure: 13 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
MI-Gov (D primary) (4/22, likely voters, 3/24 in parentheses):
Andy Dillon (D): 13 (12)
Virg Bernero (D): 12 (8)
Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 9 (10)
Some other: 15 (17)
Not sure: 51 (53)
(MoE: ±6%)
MI-Gov (R primary) (4/22, likely voters, 3/24 in parentheses):
Peter Hoekstra (R): 28 (27)
Rick Snyder (R): 14 (18)
Mike Cox (R): 13 (13)
Mike Bouchard (R): 9 (6)
Some other: 5 (5)
Not sure: 32 (32)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
MO-Sen (5/3, likely voters, 3/9 in parentheses):
Robin Carnahan (D): 42 (41)
Roy Blunt (R): 50 (47)
Some other: 4 (4)
Not sure: 4 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NC-Sen (5/5, likely voters, 4/19 in parentheses):
Elaine Marshall (D): 40 (32)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 48 (50)
Some other: 3 (6)
Not sure: 9 (12)Cal Cunningham (D): 37 (31)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 50 (53)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 10 (13)
(MoE: ±3%)
NC-Sen (D runoff) (5/5, likely voters, no trendlines):
Elaine Marshall (D): 42
Cal Cunningham (D): 37
Some other: 4
Not sure: 17
(MoE: ±4.5%)
ND-AL (4/20, likely voters, 3/23 in parentheses):
Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 45 (44)
Rick Berg (R): 49 (51)
Some other: 2 (1)
Not sure: 4 (4)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
ND-Sen (4/20, likely voters, 3/23 in parentheses):
Tracy Potter (D): 24 (25)
John Hoeven (R): 69 (68)
Some other: 2 (2)
Not sure: 5 (5)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NV-Gov (4/27, likely voters, 3/31 in parentheses):
Rory Reid (D): 47 (43)
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 37 (45)
Some other: 12 (8)
Not sure: 3 (4)Rory Reid (D): 35 (34)
Brian Sandoval (R): 53 (55)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 5 (4)Rory Reid (D): 39 (38)
Mike Montandon (R): 45 (45)
Some other: 9 (9)
Not sure: 8 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NV-Sen (4/27, likely voters, 3/31 in parentheses):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (39)
Sue Lowden (R): 52 (54)
Some other: 6 (4)
Not sure: 3 (2)Harry Reid (D-inc): 41 (42)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 51 (49)
Some other: 4 (6)
Not sure: 4 (2)Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (40)
Sharron Angle (R): 48 (51)
Some other: 7 (6)
Not sure: 4 (3)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NY-Gov (4/27, likely voters, 3/29 in parentheses):
Andrew Cuomo (D): 56 (52)
Rick Lazio (R): 24 (29)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 14 (13)Andrew Cuomo (D): 50 (50)
Steve Levy (R): 27 (26)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 17 (17)Andrew Cuomo (D): 55 (51)
Carl Paladino (R): 25 (28)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 14 (15)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
OH-Gov (5/5, likely voters, 3/30 in parentheses):
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 45 (45)
John Kasich (R): 46 (46)
Some other: 3 (2)
Not sure: 6 (7)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
OH-Sen (5/5, likely voters, 3/30 in parentheses):
Lee Fisher (D): 43 (38)
Rob Portman (R): 42 (43)
Some other: 4 (4)
Not sure: 11 (14)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
OR-Gov (4/26, likely voters, 2/17 in parentheses):
John Kitzhaber (D): 41 (42)
Chris Dudley (R): 41 (36)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 13 (15)John Kitzhaber (D): 48 (42)
Allen Alley (R): 33 (34)
Some other: 6 (8)
Not sure: 13 (16)John Kitzhaber (D): 50 (40)
John Lim (R): 34 (38)
Some other: 5 (8)
Not sure: 12 (14)Bill Bradbury (D): 40 (39)
Chris Dudley (R): 40 (36)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 13 (17)Bill Bradbury (D): 43 (41)
Allen Alley (R): 34 (35)
Some other: 7 (9)
Not sure: 16 (16)Bill Bradbury (D): 44 (38)
John Lim (R): 32 (35)
Some other: 9 (9)
Not sure: 15 (17)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
PA-Gov (D primary) (5/6, likely voters, no trendlines):
Dan Onorato (D): 34
Jack Wagner (D): 17
Anthony Williams (D): 17
Joe Hoeffel (D): 9
Some other: 6
Not sure: 17
(MoE: ±5%)
PA-Sen (5/6, likely voters, 4/12 in parentheses):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 38 (40)
Pat Toomey (R): 50 (50)
Some other: 7 (4)
Not sure: 6 (6)Joe Sestak (D): 40 (36)
Pat Toomey (R): 42 (47)
Some other: 10 (5)
Not sure: 9 (12)
(MoE: ±3%)
PA-Sen (D primary) (5/6, likely voters, 4/12 in parentheses):
Joe Sestak (D): 47 (42)
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 42 (44)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 8 (10)
(MoE: ±5%)
RI-Gov (4/21, likely voters, 3/25 in parentheses):
Frank Caprio (D): 33 (28)
John Robitaille (R): 21 (22)
Lincoln Chafee (I): 33 (39)
Not sure: 13 (11)Patrick Lynch (D): 24 (22)
John Robitaille (R): 26 (26)
Lincoln Chafee (I): 35 (37)
Not sure: 15 (15)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
SD-AL (4/21, likely voters, 3/25 in parentheses):
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 45 (44)
Chris Nelson (R): 41 (42)
Some other: 5 (6)
Not sure: 9 (9)Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 50 (46)
Kristi Noem (R): 35 (35)
Some other: 5 (8)
Not sure: 9 (10)Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 48 (45)
Blake Curd (R): 36 (33)
Some other: 7 (8)
Not sure: 9 (14)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
SD-Gov (4/21, likely voters, 3/25 in parentheses):
Scott Heidepriem (D): 33 (32)
Dennis Daugaard (R): 53 (49)
Some other: 5 (6)
Not sure: 9 (13)Scott Heidepriem (D): 41 (37)
Dave Knudson (R): 41 (32)
Some other: 9 (13)
Not sure: 10 (19)Scott Heidepriem (D): 46 (39)
Gordon Howie (R): 31 (34)
Some other: 8 (9)
Not sure: 14 (17)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
WA-Sen (5/4, likely voters, 4/6 in parentheses):
Patty Murray (D-inc): 48 (48)
Dino Rossi (R): 46 (46)
Some other: 2 (3)
Not sure: 3 (4)Patty Murray (D-inc): 52 (48)
Don Benton (R): 38 (40)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 7 (8)Patty Murray (D-inc): 51 (47)
Clint Didier (R): 36 (37)
Some other: 4 (5)
Not sure: 8 (11)Patty Murray (D-inc): 49 (45)
Paul Akers (R): 35 (37)
Some other: 6 (5)
Not sure: 10 (13)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
• AR-Sen: Those nasty anti-Bill Halter Americans for Job Security ads just keep being an issue in the Arkansas Senate race, to the extent that the Halter camp just filed an FEC complaint against AJS. The content of the ads isn’t at issue, though, but rather that AJS spent $900K on the ads without disclosing its donors.
• PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Joe Sestak continues to hold a narrow lead over Arlen Specter in the daily Muhlenberg tracker that first opened up over the weeknd; today Sestak’s lead is up to 5, at 47-42. On the gubernatorial side, it’s Dan Onorato 35 41, Anthony Williams 15 8, Joe Hoeffel 8 6, and Jack Wagner 10 5. If there were serious doubts about the Muhlenberg poll (maybe based on the small daily sample size), that might be assuaged by Rasmussen, who also polled the primary on May 6 (Thursday) and found the exact same thing: Sestak leading Specter 47-42.
• CT-Gov: Ned Lamont is out with an internal poll via Garin Hart Yang, which has him in firm control of the Democratic gubernatorial primary. He leads former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy 53-18. There’s also one less minor candidate in the midst of the Lamont/Malloy fray; former state Rep. Juan Figueroa ended his bid after not getting out of the low single digits.
• GA-Gov: Here’s some interesting behind-the-scenes intrigue in the GOP primary that seems to have good ol’ interpersonal tension at its roots, as Rep. Tom Price (the current leader of the right-wing RSC) switched his endorsement from his former House colleague, Nathan Deal, to former SoS Karen Handel. Deal responded with a statement today that essentially questioned the Michigan-born Price’s southern cred.
• OR-Gov: Bill Bradbury is hitting the TV airwaves at the last minute, with Oregon’s primary in a week (kind of buried under the monumental Arkansas, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania elections). He’s leading off with his endorsement from ex-Gov. Barbara Roberts (which seems a little underwhelming if he has Al Gore and Howard Dean in his corner). Roberts probably is unknown to younger voters and unpopular with older voters, as she’s mostly known for proposing a sales tax, which is, quite simply, the one thing you don’t propose in Oregon. She also may have something of an axe to grind with John Kitzhaber, who basically pushed her out the door in 1994 after only one term.
• SC-Gov: The Club for Growth sure loves its lost causes; they weighed in in favor of state Rep. Nikki Haley in the Republican gubernatorial primary, who’s something of a minor player in a field that includes Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer and AG Henry McMaster but known for her anti-tax zealotry. Haley is a key ally of Mark Sanford, which isn’t exactly the electoral asset that it might have been a couple years ago.
• TN-Gov: Rep. John Duncan, the occasionally iconoclastic long-time GOPer in TN-02, offered an endorsement in the GOP gubernatorial primary. He gave his nod to his fellow Knoxvillean, mayor Bill Haslam, rather than to House colleague Zach Wamp.
• ID-01: Looks like Vaughn Ward, last seen trying to out-wacky the competition in the GOP field in the 1st on the issue of repealing the 17th Amendment, may have a Democrat problem in his past. He interned for a Democratic state legislator (Jim Hansen, now the state party chair) while in college in Boise in the early 90s, and much more recently, is listed as being part of Tim Kaine’s volunteer database from his 2005 campaign.
• KS-03: State Rep. Kevin Yoder (running to succeed retiring Dennis Moore) has conventionally been regarded as something of a “moderate” by Kansas Republican standards, but in a legislature where the battle lines are often Democrats + moderate Rs vs. conservative Rs, he seems to be on the conservative side in the state’s current budget impasse. Is he moving to the right for his primary, or was he just incorrectly identified from the outset?
• MI-01: Connie Saltonstall had a few good months there as the beneficiary of NOW and NARAL support when she decided to primary Rep. Bart Stupak. With his retirement, though, the interest seems to have dried up, and today she announced she’s getting out of the primary to replace Stupak. She still decided to lob a few grenades back at the establishment on her way out the door, though, accusing them of having anointed state Rep. Gary McDowell as Stupak’s successor and saying she can’t support him because of his anti-abortion views.
• PA-12: There have been concerns about Mark Critz’s warchest dwindling (supposedly down into the $70K range) as the clock ticks down toward the May 18 special election. However, word comes from his campaign that the most recent 48-hour report has him sitting on a much more comfortable $252K. Critz also benefits from an endorsement yesterday from the Tribune-Democrat, the newspaper in the district’s population center of Johnstown.
• TX-17: Could this actually be the year Chet Edwards’ luck runs out? He survived 1994 (albeit in a much friendlier district) and the 2004 DeLay-mander, but an internal poll from Republican rival Bill Flores shows Edwards in some serious trouble this time around. The poll from OnMessage Inc. has Flores leading 53-41, quite a change from August 2009 where a Flores poll gave Edwards a 44-36 lead. That’s all despite Edwards having very positive favorables (53/38); in a district where Obama’s favorables are 33/66, Edwards needs to work his usual magic, de-nationalize the race, and make it about the two candidates.
• WA-03: More establishment backing for Denny Heck in the Dem primary in the 3rd: Heck got the endorsement from Rep. Rick Larsen, who represents a similarly swingy rural/suburban district on the other side of the Seattle area.
• NY-St. Sen.: Here’s an opportunity for a pickup in the New York state Senate, if Democrats are actually willing to play some offense. Republican Tom Morahan is not expected to seek re-election in SD-38 in the Hudson Valley, a district that was won by Barack Obama 52-47. Assemblyman Kenneth Zebrowski is a potential Dem contender, but he’ll face off against a strong Republican: Rockland Co. Executive Scott Vanderhoef, most recently seen turning down entreaties to get into the GOP Senate primary to go against Kirsten Gillibrand.
• SEIU: The SEIU plans to spend freely in a number of gubernatorial races this year. They’ve set aside $4 million more for governor’s races; they plan on getting involved in Arizona, California, Connecticut, Illinois, New York, Ohio, and Florida. (Uh, New York? Are you sure that’s necessary?)
• Redistricting: The flow of money is about to rush into one more small area of the political battlefield. The FEC issued an advisory opinion that allows members of Congress to raise soft money for legal activities concerning redistricting. The FEC allowed members to raise funds for the National Democratic Redistricting Trust. This doesn’t affect a number of other redistricting-oriented groups in either party that aren’t focused on legal issues, though — like the Dems’ Foundation for the Future, which is set up as a 527.
• Passings: One of Alaska’s legendary politicians, Walter Hickel, died over the weekend at age 91. Hickel has one thing in common with Sarah Palin: he served half a term as the state’s Republican governor… although he left to become Richard Nixon’s Interior Secretary in 1968. He then encored with another term from 1990 to 1994, as a member of the Alaskan Independence Party.
Meanwhile, Bennett is still holding out the possibility of waging a write-in campaign – which is not out of the question given that Utahns in general like him a lot more than Republican convention delegates. My understanding, though, is that he could only run as a write-in in the general election, not the primary.
Anyhow, while Bennett’s never self-funded before (so far as I know), he is actually extremely wealthy, with assets potentially in excess of $30 million. If turnout is about 600K voters and a Dem can get a third of that, then Bennett only needs 200K to win a squeaker. On the flipside, John Cornyn is pledging to support the GOP nominee, and in modern times, I think only Strom Thurmond has gotten elected to the Senate via write-in. But nevermind all that – do it, Bob… for America!
Meanwhile, on the GOP side, the cat fud is flying fast and furious. Attorney Mac Warner says he won’t support ex-state Rep. David McKinley if he wins the nomination, claiming McKinley’s “gone way over the line in personal attacks and distortions of the truth.” (Welcome to politics, bub.) In general, the primary has been very negative, with much of the fire aimed at McKinley.
• CA-Sen: Hell hath no fury like a teabagger scorned, and now the swarm is turning its anger on the queen bee. Even Sarah Palin’s popularity apparently has limits, as she’s getting all sorts of blowback (at her Facebook page, mostly) from California’s right-wingers upset over her endorsement of corporate GOPer Carly Fiorina instead of true believer Chuck DeVore.
• KY-Sen: Research 2000, on behalf of various local news outlets, polled the primaries in Kentucky, finding, in the Democratic field, Dan Mongiardo leading Jack Conway 39-32 (with 12 opting for one of the three minor candidates). On the GOP side, Rand Paul leads Trey Grayson 44-32. The same poll has perilously low approvals for Majority leader Mitch McConnell, down to 41/49. And guess who’s taking notice? Democratic state Auditor Crit Luallen — one of our commenters, nrimmer, reports that she’s sending out fundraising e-mails raising the possibility of a 2014 challenge.
Dan Mongiardo is also out with an internal poll, in the wake of the Conway camp releasing one with Conway in the lead. Mongo’s poll, taken by Garin Hart Yang, has him up 46-34 (although he can’t be psyched about the trendlines; his internal poll from February had him up 43-25). One other note from this race: an Iowa-based group, American Future Fund, is running an anti-Paul ad on TV. AFF claims to be about “free market views,” so I’m not sure what their beef with Paul is (you don’t get much more free market than that), but at any rate, their ad features a chiming cuckoo clock in it, which nicely underscores Paul’s, um, cuckoo-ness.
• NC-Sen: Third-place finisher Kenneth Lewis finds himself in something of the kingmaker’s seat, after preventing Elaine Marshall or Cal Cunningham from avoiding a runoff in the Democratic primary. Lewis says he’s not sure who he’ll endorse or even if he will endorse, but both camps are, naturally, reaching out to him and his supporters (including Mel Watt and Harvey Gantt).
• PA-Sen/PA-Gov (pdf): There’s clearly a lot of day-to-day volatility in the Muhlenberg/Morning Call daily tracker of the Dem primaries, but you can’t deny this is a blockbuster result: Joe Sestak has drawn even with Arlen Specter for the first time, as they tie at 43-all today. Maybe that ad with all those purdy pictures of him with George Bush and Sarah Palin is having the desired effect? On the gubernatorial side, Dan Onorato is at 35, Joe Hoeffel at 11, Anthony Williams at 10, and Jack Wagner at 8.
• UT-Sen: Tomorrow may well be the end of the line for Bob Bennett, the three-term Senator from Utah. He’s poised to get kicked to the curb at tomorrow’s nominating convention by his state’s far-right activist base for the crime of actually trying to legislate. Bennett’s getting some last-minute hits from robocalls from the Gun Owners of America, but that’s pretty tame compared with some of the other over-the-top attacks being leveled at other candidates (like Mike Lee as Hitler?). Michael Steele, wary of treading on the base’s toes in a no-win situation, has announced his staying neutral in the nominating process.
• MA-Gov: Looks like you don’t want to get on Tim Cahill’s bad side (or maybe more accurately, on the bad side of media consultant John Weaver, who’s also working on the oddball campaigns of Rick Snyder in Michigan and Steve Levy in New York). After a hard hit from the RGA, the Cahill camp retaliated with a web video pegging RGA chair Haley Barbour as a Confederate sympathizer and corrupt lobbyist. The RGA fired back saying the Cahill camp had responded like “scalded apes” (strange metaphor, but it has a certain evocative charm).
• OR-Gov: That SurveyUSA poll that had Republican primary results that was leaked a few days ago is fully available now, and it also contains Democratic primary results. John Kitzhaber seems poised to roll over Bill Bradbury; he leads 54-16. (As reported earlier, Chris Dudley led on the GOP side, although only at 28%.)
• RI-Gov: The DGA is going on the offensive against independent Lincoln Chafee, seeing him (and certainly not Republican John Robitaille) as their main impediment to picking up the governor’s office. They’ve launched an anti-Chafee site… and here’s an indication of the candidates’ positioning in this scrambled race: they’re actually attacking Chafee from the right, focusing on Chafee’s love of taxes.
• HI-01: One candidate who isn’t running away from Barack Obama is Ed Case, who’s up with a new TV ad throwing his arms around the hometown favorite. “Only one candidate is strong enough to stand with the President: Ed Case!” intones the ad. Despite the White House’s behind-the-scenes finger-on-the-scale, though, Obama hasn’t officially come out in favor of Case.
• ID-01: I wonder what think tank the right-wing’s current fixation with the 17th Amendment recently bubbled up from? I thought it was a weird aberration when Steve Stivers started up about it, but now it’s an issue in the GOP primary in the 1st, where all of a sudden the two contestants, Raul Labrador and Vaughn Ward, are trying to out-Seventeenther each other. Has Frank Luntz actually tried running the idea through one of his focus groups of taking away people’s rights to vote for their Senators? Somehow I doubt it polls well.
• WATN?: Couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy. Former Republican state Senate majority leader Joe Bruno just got sentenced to two years in federal prison for fraud and abuse of office. It’s worth noting, though, that the sentence was stayed until the SCOTUS can rule on the “honest services” issue that’s before it, so it could be a long time, if ever, before Bruno’s wearing stripes.
• AR-Sen: Americans for Job Security strikes back! They’re launching a new ad against Bill Halter on the outsourcing front… well, it’s pretty much the same ad, just not as, y’know, openly racist. They’re spending almost $500K on the TV ad buy, supplementing the large amounts they’ve already dropped in this race.
• FL-Sen: Mason-Dixon has a new post-party-switch poll of the Senate race. They find Charlie Crist with a narrow lead, at 38, compared with Marco Rubio at 32 and Kendrick Meek at 19, but they also warn that Crist’s sitting on a house of cards, as more than half of Crist’s support is from Democrats and that may erode as Meek gets better known (Meek is at 40% unknown). I trust Mason-Dixon more than the three other pollsters who’ve also released results this week, but they all seem to be reaching a sort of consensus on this race (Rasmussen at 38C-34R-17M, McLaughlin at 33C-29R-15M, and POS for Crist at 36C-28R-23M). Meanwhile, the candidates are fumbling around trying to pin down their respective bases with various flipfloppery: Rubio is walking back his previous disdain for Arizona’s immigration law, now saying he’s all for it, while the occasionally pro-life Crist is prepared to veto a bill requiring pregnant women to view a fetal ultrasound before being able to have an abortion.
• IL-Sen: This is probably good news for Alexi Giannoulias, although it was more a question of when it would happen rather than if it would happen, given the media’s tendency to get distracted by the next shiny object. A local TV reporter more or less called out Mark Kirk for incessant focus on the Broadway Bank scandal and asked him what else he was planning to talk about in the future, perhaps indicative of a growing media boredom with the story.
• PA-Sen/Gov: Today’s tracker in the Muhlenberg/Morning Call poll shows a narrower spread in the Senate race: Arlen Specter leads Joe Sestak 45-40. In the Governor’s primary, Dan Onorato is at 34, Joe Hoeffel is at 12, and Anthony Williams and Jack Wagner are at 8. Meanwhile, the Sestak camp is hitting Specter with a new TV ad focusing on what’s probably Specter’s biggest vulnerability in the Democratic primary: the fact that he was a Republican Senator for, y’know, three decades or so. The ad’s replete with lots of photos of Specter and G.W. Bush, together again. The tightening race and aggressive tone has the Pennsylvania Dem establishment worried, and state party chair T.J. Rooney is sounding the alarm, calling a possible Sestak win “cataclysmic” and making various electability arguments in favor of Specter.
• AL-Gov: We don’t have any actual hard numbers to report, but local pollster Gerald Johnson (of Capital Survey Research Center) has been leaking reports that there’s significant tightening in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, with Ag Commissioner Ron Sparks moving within the margin of error of Rep. Artur Davis. Davis’s numbers seem to have dropped following his anti-HCR vote. Meanwhile, on the GOP side, Tim James‘ attention-grabbing, race-baiting ad seems to have had its desired effect. He just released an internal poll showing him taking the lead, with him at 26, Roy Moore at 21, Bradley Byrne at 20, and Robert Bentley at 7. (The previous James internal had Moore at 27, Byrne at 18, and James at 14.)
• CA-Gov (pdf): Another gubernatorial primary where there’s some tightening is on the Republican side is the GOP primary in California. Steve Poizner is touting an internal poll from POS that his him within 10 points of the once-unstoppable Meg Whitman, 38-28. It seems like Whitman lost a whole lot of inevitability once someone than her actually started advertising on TV, too.
• CT-02: That was fast… it was only a few days ago that former TV anchor Janet Peckinpaugh’s interest in running the 2nd became known. Now she’s officially launched her campaign, with Connecticut’s nominating convention fast approaching (May 21).
• PA-12: The DCCC paid for another $170K in media buys on behalf of Mark Critz, bringing their total investment in this special election up to $641K. (J) The GOP is bringing one more big gun to the district to campaign on Tim Burns’s behalf, too: Rep. Mike Pence.
• VA-05: In the wake of his surprising decision to join the Constitution Party, ex-Rep. Virgil Goode had to clarify several things: most notably, he said that, no, he’s not running in the 5th this year as a Constitution Party candidate (or as anything else), although he wouldn’t rule out a future run. Furthermore, he isn’t leaving the Republican Party; he doesn’t view membership as mutually exclusive. Meanwhile, Politico is wondering what’s up between the NRCC and the establishment candidate in the 5th, state Sen. Robert Hurt. Hurt hasn’t been added to the NRCC’s Young Guns list, despite their tendency to add anyone with a pulse everywhere else. The NRCC hasn’t added any names in this district and says they’d prefer to wait until after the primary — although in other contested primaries, they’ve added multiple names to the list, which suggests that they’re trying to lay low in this race, which has become a rather emblematic flash point in the establishment/teabagger rift this year.
• WA-03: Both Democratic candidates in the 3rd nailed down labor endorsements in the last few days. Denny Heck got the endorsement of the Boeing Machinists (maybe the state’s most powerful union) and the local IBEW, while Craig Pridemore got the nod from the pulp and paper workers.
• WI-07: With David Obey’s surprising retirement announcement yesterday, we’re moving the open seat in the 7th to “Tossup” status (from Likely Dem). On the one hand, it’s a D+3 district with a solid Democratic bench of state legislators, but on the other hand, GOP challenger Sean Duffy is sitting on a lot of money and establishment support, and there’s, of course, the nature of the year. CQ lists a whole herd of possible Democratic successors in the district: the big name on the list is probably Russ Decker, the state Senate’s majority leader. Others include state Sens. Julie Lassa and Pat Kreitlow, state Rep. Donna Seidel, and attorney Christine Bremer. Another area state Sen., Robert Jauch, has already taken himself out of the running. And one other Republican isn’t ruling out a bid, which could complicate Duffy’s path: state Rep. Jerry Petrowski.
• CA-Init: It looks like Californians will get the chance to vote on an initiative that proposes to move congressional redistricting to the same independent commission process as legislative redistricting, as the initiative just qualified for the ballot. I’m genuinely torn: on the one hand, the naïve idealist in me admits some fondness for compactly-drawn swingy districts, but on the other hand, Dems have a good shot at controlling the trifecta in California and with the ability to wring some additional Dem-leaning seats out of the map, control of the 2012 House may well be at stake here.
• NRCC: The NRCC promoted 13 members of its Young Guns framework to the top tier (the “Young Guns” level). This includes not only the aforementioned Sean Duffy, but also the winners of the three contested primaries in Indiana… and a surprise in the form of Morgan Griffith, who’s taking on Rep. Rick Boucher in VA-09 but who’s still sitting on a five-figure cash stash and on the wrong end of a 22:1 CoH ratio.
• FL-Sen: With drillin’ and spillin’ suddenly on everyone’s minds these days, the Florida legislature’s Dems are trying to force newly-minted independent Charlie Crist’s hand on the drilling issue. They plan to ask Crist to call a special session to take up a constitutional amendment on banning drilling close to Florida’s shoreline. With Crist having taken pretty much every possible position on drilling already, who knows what he’ll do… obviously, he’s flexible. Meanwhile, with Crist out of the GOP picture, Jeb Bush is now free to publicly out himself as the Marco Rubio supporter that anyone with a pulse has known he’s been along.
• KS-Sen: Although it’s a little late in the game, the Dems actually landed a bona fide state legislator to run for Senate (one of their biggest recruiting gaps this cycle). State Sen. David Haley of Kansas City, who’d been rumored to be interested many months ago, now says he’ll take the plunge, giving the Dems at least something of an upgrade from retired newspaper editor Charles Schollenberger. Haley hasn’t fared well in his last couple attempts at a promotion, though; he lost both the 2002 and 2006 SoS races. Meanwhile, over on the GOP side, Rep. Todd Tiahrt has settled into an underdog position against Rep. Jerry Moran, but he’s trying to rally the social conservative grassroots. Religious right leader James Dobson (last seen pulling a weird switcheroo in the Kentucky GOP primary) cut a radio ad on Tiahrt’s behalf.
• NY-Sen-B: Could the GOP manage to coax one more second-tier contender into the Republican field to go against Kirsten Gillibrand? Orange County Executive Ed Diana is reportedly “gearing up” to challenge Gillibrand, although he hasn’t made a final decision. Diana would have at least one leg up over David Malpass, Bruce Blakeman, and Joe DioGuardi: he’d be the only one to currently hold elective office (although Orange County, in the Hudson Valley, makes up less than 2% of New York’s population).
• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): Today’s daily hit from the Muhlenberg/Morning Call tracker: Arlen Specter has a slightly bigger lead over Joe Sestak, at 48-40. Dan Onorato is at 34 in the governor’s primary, followed by Joe Hoeffel at 11, Anthony Williams at 9, and Jack Wagner at 8.
• WI-Sen: As was generally expected, Oshkosh businessman Ron Johnson seems to be ready to launch his Senate bid on the Republican side, with an official announcement in the foreseeable future. Johnson apparently is on good terms with the teabagger community, unlike other GOP candidates Dick Leinenkugel (a veteran of the Jim Doyle administration and thus an impure collaborationist) and Terrence Wall.
• AL-Gov: Here’s a smackdown for Rep. Artur Davis: the United Mine Workers, which had previously done a joint endorsement of Davis and Ron Sparks, pulled its Davis endorsement and will endorse Sparks solely. (Sparks also got the UAW’s endorsement last week.) Davis did manage to score one other endorsement, though, from equal pay activist Lilly Ledbetter (whose namesake bill is one of the few pieces of marquee Democratic legislation that Davis actually voted for this cycle).
• FL-Gov: Rick Scott, the former health insurance exec and professional anti-HCR astroturfer who just got into the GOP gubernatorial primary, is bringing a whole lot of his own money with him. AG and presumptive nominee Bill McCollum may need to start looking back over his shoulder: Scott has either bought or reserved $4.7 million in airtime for the coming months. That’s about as much money as McCollum has raised since entering the race.
• NY-Gov: The RGA left Steve Levy hanging, in a big way. Levy had (laughably) claimed last week that the RGA had promised him $8 to $10 million for his gubernatorial run as an incentive to get into the race and save the GOP from the specter of Rick Lazio. RGA chair Haley Barbour (not publicly, through back channels) said, um, no: the RGA is neutral in the primary, and will spend in that race only if it looks close down the home stretch. With state chair Ed Cox having put his credibility on the line to bring in ex-Dem Levy (who’s sucking in both GOP primary and general election polls), the NYT is reporting that’s created something of a “war” within the state party, to the extent that Michael Steele had to head to New York for a recent emergency intervention with Cox. When Michael Steele is suddenly the voice of reason, you know you’re doing it wrong.
• NH-Sen: I’m still hazy on the backstory here, but it’s never a good sign when Politico is running big headlines titled “Fraud case complicates Ayotte bid.” New Hampshire’s Bureau of Securities Regulation director, Mark Connelly, just resigned his job to become a whistleblower, alleging a cover-up by the AG’s office and state banking commission in a fraud case where Financial Resources Mortgage Inc. defrauded New Hampshire investors out of at least $80 million. Connelly was pushing for charges against FRM as early as 2006; the AG in question, of course, was Kelly Ayotte, who resigned her post in mid-2009. Discovery in the matter may be complicated because all of Ayotte’s e-mail and calendars were wiped from her computer after she left the AG’s office.
• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): It looks like Muhlenberg College (on behalf of the Morning Call) is actually going to be doing a daily tracker on the Democratic primary races in the next two weeks as we count down to May 18. Today they find an even narrower gap in the suddenly-closer Arlen Specter/Joe Sestak race: Specter leads Sestak 46-42. Dan Onorato’s numbers in the gubernatorial race aren’t quite as showy, but still dominant: he’s at 36, with Anthony Williams at 9, Joe Hoeffel at 8, and Jack Wagner at 8. Quinnipiac also has similar numbers out today: they also have Specter leading Sestak by only single digits, at 47-39 (down from 53-32 a month ago). In the governor’s race, Qpac finds Onorato at 36, Hoeffel at 9, Wagner at 8, and Williams at 8. The DSCC seems to be sensing some trouble here for their preferred candidate, and they’re dipping into their treasury to help Specter out: the DSCC chipped in for $300K in Specter’s last $407K TV ad buy. Sestak just kicked off TV advertising two weeks ago but is going all in, outspending Specter in the last two weeks, which obviously coincides with his late surge.
• AZ-Gov: That Behavior Research Center poll of AZ-Sen from a few weeks ago contained a Republican gubernatorial primary question as well. Their findings mirror the other most recent polls of the primary: vulnerable incumbent Jan Brewer strengthened her hand among GOP primary voters by signing Arizona’s immigration law into effect. She’s at 22, not a lock but well ahead of any opposition: Owen Buz Mills is at 13, Dean Martin is at 10, and John Munger is at 4. (If your calculator isn’t handy, that leaves 51% undecided.)
• NH-Gov (pdf): Univ. of New Hampshire is out with another look at New Hampshire’s gubernatorial race, where Democratic incumbent John Lynch is well in control but still facing a tougher race than the last few times. They find Lynch leads GOP challenger John Stephen 49-32, little changed from the February poll where Lynch led 50-30.
• WI-Gov: Ex-Rep. Mark Neumann is very much the underdog in the Republican primary in the gubernatorial race (as the DC and local establishments have both embraced Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker instead). But he added a hard-right endorsement to his trophy cabinet today; he got the nod from Tom Coburn.
• GA-08: In a clear sign that state Rep. Austin Scott (who recently bailed out of a long-shot gubernatorial campaign) is the man to beat in the GOP primary in the 8th, Angela Hicks got out of the race, saying she didn’t want to hurt Scott’s chances. Local businesswoman Hicks seemed to be considered the frontrunner among the GOPers prior to Scott’s entry, more by virtue of being the least weak rather than the strongest.
• HI-01: Barack Obama recorded a robocall for Democratic voters in his hometown district. Despite reports that the White House is joining the DCCC is putting a finger on the scale in favor of Ed Case rather than Colleen Hanabusa in the screwy special election, Obama didn’t name names; he simply urged a vote for “a Democrat.”
• NH-02: The largely forgotten state Rep. John DeJoie, the third wheel in the Democratic primary to replace Paul Hodes, cut short his bid today. Despite generally being regarded as from the progressive side of the ledger, DeJoie threw his support to Katrina Swett. DeJoie’s departure, on the balance, may help Ann McLane Kuster, though, by not splitting the progressive vote.
• PA-12: I have no idea whether this is good strategy or not, but Mark Critz, hoping to replace former boss John Murtha, is clinging hard to Murtha’s legacy in his new TV ad, seeming to put a lot of faith in polling data showing Murtha still a very popular figure in the district. Critz blasts back at Tim Burns for his own TV spots focusing on Murtha’s ethical woes, telling Burns ungrammatically to stop attacking “someone not there to defend themselves.” Meanwhile, the fight’s on for Murtha’s money: $7K from Murtha’s PAC found its way into Democratic pockets (including $5K for Critz), but the bulk of Murtha’s leftover money is headed for a charitable foundation established by his widow.
• CA-St. Sen.: For fans of legislative special elections, it looks like the marquee event between now and November will be the fight for California’s SD-15, a Dem-leaning central coast district vacated by Republican now-Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado. Republican Assemblyman Sam Blakeslee just got in the race, giving the GOP a solid contender to try and hold the seat as Dems try to push closer to the 2/3s mark in the Senate; he’ll face off against Democratic ex-Assemblyman John Laird in the June 22 election. (If neither candidate breaks 50%, there’ll be an Aug. 17 runoff.)
• Redistricting: Lots of redistricting-related action this week, going in two different directions. In Florida, the GOP-held legislature placed a redistricting measure on the November ballot that partially contradicts two citizen initiatives on the ballot that would prevent the legislature from drawing maps that favor one political party. The new proposal would still allow the legislature to take “communities of interest” into consideration when drawing maps. In Illinois, though, two attempts to change redistricting both failed, when the legislature couldn’t muster the votes to put it on the November ballot. Illinois’s arcane methods (which involve breaking ties by pulling a name out of a hat) will apparently still apply for the 2012 redistricting round.
• Deutschland: Our man in Cologne, SSPer micha.1976 has a hilarious and remarkable find from the streets of Germany. Remember the impeach-Obama Larouchie, Kesha Rogers, who won the Democratic nomination in TX-22? Her image is now being used on posters for a like-minded LaRouchie candidate in Germany! (J)
Muhlenberg College for Allentown Morning Call (pdf) (4/28-5/1, likely voters, no trendlines):
Arlen Specter (D): 48
Joe Sestak (D): 42
Undecided: 11Dan Onorato (D): 41
Anthony Williams (D): 8
Joe Hoeffel (D): 6
Jack Wagner (D): 5
Undecided: 40
(MoE: ±5%)
“Closing” might be an overstatement for Joe Sestak, as this is the first poll Muhlenberg (go Mules!) has done for the Democratic primary so there aren’t trendlines. Still, there was a Rasmussen poll that had Sestak within 2 of Arlen Specter last month, and the Pollster regression line shows some definite signs of life for Sestak. The question is whether the upward movement is coming too late, with the primary in two more weeks.
Contrast that with the Dems’ gubernatorial primary, where Dan Onorato’s trajectory has taken flight in the last month. Onorato’s opposition has struggled to emerge from the low teens, and now they’ve all fallen back into the single digits. Even though 40% of the electorate is still undecided about this one, that’s actually the lowest undecideds ever in the Dem primary so far.