Tag: PA-Sen

Rasmussen (12/2, likely voters)

Chris Matthews (D): 43

Arlen Specter (R-inc): 46

(MoE: ±4.5%)

That object looming in Arlen Specter’s rearview mirror may in fact be as large as it appears… it’s Tweety’s giant head. The bluening of Pennsylvania seems to be continuing unabated, as Rasmussen’s first look at the 2010 senate race in Pennsylvania sees 28-year veteran Specter looking surprisingly weak against Matthews, a figure many would describe as ‘polarizing.’ Specter has an overall 60% favorability in the poll, but as much as Democrats seem willing to respect him (he gets a 48% favorable among Democrats, while only a 70% favorable among Republicans), they still seem to be in a 2006-08 mindset where they’d just rather vote for a Dem.

The 68 78-year-old Specter can’t be looking forward to a double gauntlet of Pat Toomey in the primary and now this. (Speaking of which, maybe Rasmussen should try polling the Specter vs. Toomey matchup.) For that matter, maybe Rasmussen should try polling some other Democrats (starting with Allyson Schwartz), in case the Chris Matthews noise turns out to be bluster.

Politico reports today that, on the one hand, Matthews is discussing the possibility of leaving MSNBC and relocating to Pennsylvania to focus on the race. But on the other hand, NBC insiders think it’s a ploy to renegotiate his contract, which expires in 2009. Right now, a renegotiation is not anticipated to be as rich as his current $5 million per year (and which will leave him lagging way behind fellow pundit Keith Olbermann)… threatening to run for Senate instead of jumping to another network is kind of a new wrinkle in the usual pattern, though.

UPDATE by Diego Infierno: Joe Sestak has withdrawn his name from consideration.

Hoo boy. This would be nice:

Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), whom Specter defeated by less than two percentage points in 2004, said he hasn’t ruled out a 2010 rematch, but has no timetable for a decision.

Toomey, the president of the conservative Club for Growth, insisted Specter faces more hurdles than he did four years ago.

“He’s significantly more vulnerable now than he was in 2004,” Toomey said in an interview.

He argued that Specter’s core constituency in the GOP, which he called “liberal and moderate Republicans,” have since left the party and will be unable to vote in Pennsylvania’s closed Republican primary. That will make it more difficult for Specter to prevail against a conservative opponent, Toomey said.

Go for it, Pat!

While this is coming from Bob Novak’s column, I found it very interesting nonetheless.  I would still guess that Rendell won’t challenge Specter because (1) they are friends; and (2) I am not sure the Senate would be Rendell’s cup of tea.  

That being said, 2010 is a long ways away, plus Rendell realizes that after he leaves Harrisburg, he will be out of office completely.  It would certainly be a great opening, and there is no doubt Rendell would be our best possible nominee.  Besides, given Specter’s age, all of his talk about definitely running may just be bluster.  

SPECTER’S OPPONENT?

Pennsylvania’s popular Democratic Gov. Edward Rendell is reported by party sources to be considering a race for the Senate in 2010 even if his friend and fellow Philadelphian, Republican Sen. Arlen Specter, seeks re-election.

Specter has indicated that he wants a sixth term in the Senate, but that may depend on his health. He is suffering from a recurrence of cancer.

Republican insiders believe that Specter might decide to run as an independent if conservatives launch another serious Republican primary campaign against him, as they did in 2004. A three-way election would all but guarantee the election of a Democrat.