Tag: PA-Sen

• VA-Gov: PPP’s latest has McAulliffe 21, Moran 19 and Deeds 14 for the Dem gubernatorial primary. Last month it was 18-18-11. The election is three months off. (D)

• PA-Sen: An opening for Pat Toomey? Susquehanna has a new poll showing Snarlin’ Arlen’s re-elects at just 38% – and an awful 26% among Republicans. (D)

• TX-Gov: Tom Schieffer, a former State Rep. and Bush Ambassador to Australia, has announced that he’s forming an exploratory committee to seek the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Texas. When questioned by reporters, Schieffer says that he does not regret voting for Bush for Governor and President. A recent PPP poll has Kay Bailey Hutchison crushing Schieffer by a 54-30 margin, while incumbent Gov. Rick Perry leads Schieffer by only 45-35. (J)

• IN-Gov: Is Baron Hill getting ready for a 2012 gubernatorial campaign? There was some brief speculation that he might run in 2008, but of course that never panned out. (J)

• OR-Gov: This may be a tea leaf that Gordon Smith is passing on the 2010 governor’s race, or it may simply be a way to stay in the Beltway money loop for a year while laying groundwork, but Gordo is staying in DC and taking a “senior adviser” position (since he’s subject to the two-year lobbying ban) with prominent DC law/lobbying/soul-devouring firm Covington & Burling.

After withdrawing his name from the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate primary against GOP incumbent Arlen Specter in January, former Rep. Pat Toomey is now reconsidering the race:

Former Congressman Pat Toomey (R, PA-15), current Club for Growth President, just announced on Bobby Gunther Walsh’s 1-On-1 Show, WAEB, 790AM, that a Primary challenge to Senator Arlen Specter is “now back on the table.”

Mr. Toomey acknowledged that “Senator Specter cast the deciding vote on the very worrisome stimulus Bill, when he could have negotiated with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and President Obama for more productive tax cuts and less wasteful spending.” Pennsylvanians need to do some soul searching about who will really represent us in the Senate.

Hallelujah.

(H/T: Taegan Goddard’s Magic Carpet Ride)

UPDATE: More from Toomey:

Pat Toomey, president of the Club for Growth, announced this afternoon that he is considering a bid for Senate in PA.

“As this disastrous recession worsens, I have become increasingly concerned about the future of our state and national economy,” he said in a statement. “Unfortunately, the recent extraordinary response of the federal government – more corporate bailouts, unprecedented spending and debt, higher taxes – is likely to make things worse. I think we are on a dangerously wrong path. Pennsylvanians want a US Senator focused on real and sustainable job creation that gets our economy growing again. That is why I am considering becoming a candidate for the US Senate.”

Now: is he serious, or is he just sabre rattling?

Arlen Specter has his first confirmed challenger for 2010, but it’s not Allyson Schwartz or Patrick Murphy (the two names you usually see associated with this race): it’s Joe Torsella. He hasn’t held elective office before, but he’s a local mover and shaker in Philadelphia: he was, until very recently, CEO of the National Constitution Center, and before that, Ed Rendell’s deputy mayor.

Torsella’s interest in the Senate seat has always struck me as being a little above his pay grade (his only run for office was the primary for the open seat in PA-13 in 2004, which he lost to Schwartz; he was also reportedly wooed for the PA-06 candidacy in 2008). He does have one huge asset in his corner, though: Governor Ed Rendell. With Rendell having given no indication of interest in the Senate, Torsella is basically running as a Rendell proxy, and should have access to all the levers of Rendell’s machinery. Time will tell whether that will be enough to overcome the better-known Schwartz (and/or Murphy) in the primary, though.

A bummer, but not a surprise:

Former Lehigh Valley Congressman Pat Toomey has decided against a repeat run for Senate in 2010, turning instead toward a possible bid for governor as he reaches out to Republicans statewide to assess his potential candidacy next year.

Toomey, president of the anti-tax group The Club for Growth, is scheduled to sit down with several influential and deep-pocketed Lehigh Valley Republicans in early February to “discuss his thinking of a possible gubernatorial run,” according to an e-mail invitation sent out Friday on behalf of Arcadia Properties founder Richard Thulin.

Without Toomey taking another crack at the race, it’s hard to see if any other Republicans of note will gear up to give Specter a serious challenge. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up squaring off with a D-grade bozo or two, but perhaps Toomey has a wealthy friend on speed dial that he could persuade.

(Hat-tip: The Taegan Goddard Experience)

Chris Cilliza is reporting that Patrick Murphy will stay out, according to his sources.

Reps. Joe Sestak and Patrick J. Murphy: Sestak isn’t interested; Murphy has been more coy but ultimately will stay out, our sources say.

He also mentions the other probables:

Joe Torsella: Torsella’s name might be familiar to political junkies, as he ran a well-funded but ultimately unsuccessful primary against Rep. Allyson Schwartz in 2004 for the open 13th Congressional District seat. Torsella went on to raise the money for and then run the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. An X factor in Torsella’s favor? He is very close to Gov. Ed Rendell, having served as a deputy mayor when Rendell ruled Philadelphia.

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Allyson Y. Schwartz: The congresswoman has run for the Senate — she lost a primary to then-Rep. Ron Klink in 2000 — and has made no secret of her interest in another statewide bid. Schwartz would almost certainly have the financial and organizational support of Emily’s List, a powerful chit in her favor, particularly in a Democratic primary. Schwartz’s hurdle is whether she can sell herself as a candidate outside the Philadelphia media market.

Jack Wagner: The state’s auditor general is the lone candidate seriously considering the race who comes from the western part of the state, a huge advantage in a state where geography looms large. Wagner is mulling a run for governor, and there is some sense among political sharps that he will ultimately take that route.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/…

To me, the most appealing name there is Rep. Schwartz who is a solid progressive and has shown electability.  She however, would have to work on outside Philly, which is something that I think she could do.

Another person who I think would be incredibly appealing is Chris Carney (PA-10) because of his moderate appeal and work on veterans issues.  He is not that progressive, but he is a Democrat and has shown an ability to get elected by Republicans (PA-10 is a solid Republican district).

Ultimately, a Democrat will win Philly, but should they be able to win Pittsburg (west) and the norhtern areas?

EDIT: Edited title to reflect true nature of article.

But for what? Roll Call:

Former Pennsylvania Rep. Pat Toomey (R) said he is considering a statewide bid in 2010, either for governor or another primary challenge to Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.).

“I haven’t ruled out a statewide run in 2010,” Toomey said in an interview this week.

Since losing the GOP primary to Specter by 2 points in 2004, Toomey has run the Club for Growth while living in Zionsville, Pa. In an interview in the club’s Washington, D.C., office, Toomey said he has not spoken with Specter since before the general election in 2004.

But it’s more likely that Toomey would make a bid for governor, said a Pennsylvania Republican operative close to him. The operative cautioned, however, that he would not swear off a Specter challenge if the trademark moderate Republican Senator verges too far to the left on certain issues – for example, the “card check” vote that would make it easier for workers to unionize.

If you believe Roll Call’s unnamed “operative”, it sounds like Toomey isn’t really serious about another run against Specter — the card check nonsense sounds like an idle threat to ensure that Snarlin’ Arlen toes the wingnut line once again.

So sayeth the Politico:

Before “Hardball” today, Chris Matthews informed the show’s staff in a production meeting that he’s not running for Senate, according to a network source.

The NY Times confirms it. All I can say is: good. Maybe now we can get to the task of finding a real candidate to run against Specter.

A couple of biggies today. In terms of redistricting alone, holding the Pennsylvania Governor’s office is pretty crucial for Democrats. Who would you like to see run for the big office? And who do you expect to see line up for the Reds?

And while we’re on the Keystone State, who would you like to see face off against snarlin’ Arlen in 2010?

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/8-10, likely voters):

Arlen Specter (R-inc): 43

Pat Toomey (R): 28

Undecided: 29

(MoE: ±5%)

Chris Matthews (D): 24

Patrick Murphy (D): 19

Allyson Schwartz (D): 15

Undecided: 42

(MoE: ±5%)

Chris Matthews (D): 28

Patrick Murphy (D): 21

Undecided: 51

Chris Matthews (D): 30

Allyson Schwartz (D): 18

Undecided: 52

Patrick Murphy (D): 23

Allyson Schwartz (D): 20

Undecided: 57

Chris Matthews (D): 44

Arlen Specter (R-inc): 45

(MoE: ±4%)

Patrick Murphy (D): 36

Arlen Specter (R-inc): 48

Allyson Schwartz (D): 35

Arlen Specter (R-inc): 49

Chris Matthews (D): 46

Pat Toomey (R): 35

Patrick Murphy (D): 44

Pat Toomey (R): 36

Allyson Schwartz (D): 42

Pat Toomey (R): 36

Every possible configuration of the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate race you can imagine is here, courtesy of Research 2000 for Daily Kos. Arlen Specter can’t be liking what he’s seeing. Thanks to Rasmussen last week, we already knew that Specter was vulnerable against Chris Matthews (they found Specter up 46-43). R2K finds an even closer race in that configuration, with Reps. Patrick Murphy and Allyson Schwartz trailing Specter by 10+ points but holding him below 50%. (Consider this mostly a measure of name recognition at this point; Matthews has a national platform, but Murphy and Schwartz are little known outside their districts and right now are basically “generic D.”)

But guess who else is holding Specter below 50%? Pat Toomey, who looks to be taking the controls for yet another kamikaze mission by the Club for Growth. If the free-market fundamentalist Toomey wins the primary, the general is effectively over, with even Murphy and Schwartz thumping him in head-to-head matchups.

Considering that Specter won the primary against Toomey in 2004 by only 2 points (with a slightly different-looking Pennsylvania GOP, where many of the remaining moderates hadn’t yet jumped ship), Toomey winning the primary this time is a distinct possibility, given a Republican base with an even purer, less diluted conservatism. Specter pulls in only 43% in the primary matchup, which points to the balancing act he’ll have to negotiate in the next two years: either burnish his RINO credentials and support most of the Obama agenda in order to survive the 2010 general, or join the southern GOP rump’s obstructionist efforts in order to survive the 2010 primary. I believe the technical term for such a situation is “damned if you do, damned if you don’t.”

From the Politico:

TO BE ANNOUNCED TUESDAY, or soon: Chris Matthews signed to a long-term contract at “Hardball.” Last night, he was being affectionately called “Senator” at Linda Douglass’ chic holiday party.

If this is accurate, then we don’t have to worry about Tweety throwing his hat into the ring against Arlen Specter. Not that I’d think he could win a contested primary against a competent Democrat, but it’d still be nice not to deal with any of his nonsense on the campaign trail for the next year and a half.

(Hat-tip: Taegan)