Tag: NC-08

SurveyUSA just released a batch of polls undertaken on behalf of Roll Call which tested seven rematches from 2006. Three of them covered races which feature Democratic challengers who came heartbreaking close to victory last time. The news looks very, very good all around. (Full polling summary available as PDF. James’s roundup of the Dem incumbent polls is here.)

First up, IL-10 (10/04-05, likely voters, no trendlines):

Dan Seals (D): 52

Mark Kirk (R-inc): 44

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Bonus finding: Obama romps here, 62-36. Fuckin’ A.

Next, NC-08 (10/04-05, likely voters, no trendlines):

Larry Kissell (D): 49

Robin Hayes (R-inc): 41

Thomas Hill (L): 6

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±4%)

Bonus finding: Obama 53, McCain 44. Remember, Bush won this district 54-45 in 2004.

And finally, NY-29 (10/04-05, likely voters, no trendlines):

Eric Massa (D): 51

Randy “Shotgun” Kuhl (R-inc): 44

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Bonus finding: Obama leads 49-47, and this ain’t exactly considered the heart of Obama country.

All in all, some awesome results for Team Blue. A bunch of Republican campaigns are going to have seriously miserable days tomorrow. And just think – Marky Mark “Capt.” Kirk was kvetching like little kid today about poll which showed him six points ahead. Can’t wait to see how he reacts to a survey which has him eight behind. Joy!

Earlier in the day, the Swing State Project changed its ratings for four House races. Here’s a round-up of what we did:

MI-09 (Knollenberg): Lean Republican to Tossup

GOP Rep. Joe Knollenberg identified himself as an early target of the 2008 election cycle after his surprisingly tepid 2006 electoral performance against underfunded Democrat Nancy Skinner. He won that race by a mere 52-46 margin, but now faces a stiffer challenge from former state Senator Gary Peters.

A number of factors have contributed to our decision to shift this race over to the Tossup column, most notably being the district’s Democratic trend. Al Gore lost the 9th District by 47-51 in 2000, but John Kerry made it a two-point race four years later, and it looks like this trend is set to continue at the Presidential level. Public and internal polls by EPIC-MRA and the DCCC have both shown Barack Obama leading John McCain in this district by varying margins, and private polling confirms this. Furthermore, both of the released polls of this race show a tight contest, with Knollenberg hovering around the 40% mark. That’s a precarious position for any incumbent to occupy.

This race was already a Tossup before the news that John McCain will be pulling out of Michigan, but that just makes the race even tougher for Knollenberg.

NC-08 (Hayes): Lean Republican to Tossup

We’ve been admittedly slow to come around to this race, but that’s only because we’ve been less than impressed with Kissell’s extremely sluggish fundraising efforts and questionable spending. But the DCCC has been spending heavily to make up Kissell’s gaps (including, we should note, recent expenditures on field organizing). Moreover, recent polling shows Dems surging in the Presidential and Senate races throughout the state, with noticeable results in the 8th CD — an R+3 district with a sizable African-American population and plenty of down-home Democrats.

Recent internal polling from the DCCC shows Kissell with an 11-point lead, and while that may be a temporary financial crisis bounce (especially with the banking and finance industry being so prominent in Charlotte), Hayes is plummeting in his own internals, as well. We could see Hayes ending up on the wrong side of the Democratic tide in North Carolina.

NM-02 (Open): Lean Republican to Tossup

It’s beginning to become very clear why the NRCC was so desperate to keep Steve Pearce out of the Senate race in New Mexico — they knew that they could face some major problems in an open seat race in Southern New Mexico, even though the district has an R+6 tilt.

Democrats nominated Harry Teague, a former Lea County commissioner and oilman, who cuts a conservative profile that appeals to many of the district’s conservative Democrats. The Republican nominee, Ed Tinsley, is saddled by his past as a lobbyist for the National Restaurant Association — a record that the DCCC is beginning to attack in recent TV ads. Teague, who like Tinsley is partially self-funding his race, has been working the retail side of the race heavily, visiting many of the district’s far-flung towns and scoring impressive reviews in such encounters. A recent Teague internal poll shows the Democrat leading this contest by five points, and an upcoming Research 2000 poll will apparently show a similar margin. This race is wide open for the taking.

PA-03 (English): Lean Republican to Tossup

Of all the top tier races this year, this contest appears to be the most unusual. Democrats originally recruited Erie city Councilman Kyle Foust to take on GOP Rep. Phil “the Hutt” English last year. However, when his candidacy quickly fizzled out in mediocrity, the race didn’t look so promising. But Erie Arboretum director and businesswoman Kathy Dahlkemper has come on strong — or, perhaps we should say, English has been fading fast. A Dahlkemper internal poll from July indicated that the race was a dead heat, and the NRCC’s decision to reserve $820,000 in ad time to protect him was the first big tell here. The next indication of this race’s competitiveness was the DCCC’s decision to go up on the air against English in early September, followed by English’s very public displays of flop sweat. Indeed, the NRCC has followed through and earlier this week spent its first paid media dollars of the fall in this race.

With a recent SUSA poll giving Dahlkemper a four-point lead over English, there is no longer any doubt. This race is a tossup.

Earlier in the day, the DCCC released the details of a GQR internal poll showing Democrat Larry Kissell drubbing Robin Hayes by a 54-43 margin in their congressional rematch. To counter that notion, Hayes has released his own internal poll. Let’s take a look.

Public Opinion Strategies for Robin Hayes (9/23&25, likely voters, 8/4-5 in parens):

Larry Kissell (D): 43 (40)

Robin Hayes (R-inc): 46 (50)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Here’s one glaring omission from Hayes’ poll: in August, he released numbers saying that McCain was leading Obama by a 47-42 margin in the 8th District. And now? It looks like those numbers were omitted from his press release — quite possibly because Obama has pulled ahead in his own poll.

We’ve been skeptical of Kissell’s chops for a long time, but this poll — combined with the general Democratic surge in North Carolina — is enough for us to bump our rating of this race from Lean Republican to Tossup.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for the DCCC (9/28-29, likely voters):

Larry Kissell (D): 54

Robin Hayes (R-inc): 43

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Those are amazing numbers, and they also predict a Democratic rout at the top of the ticket: Obama leads McCain by 54-42 in the 8th District (a district that Bush won by 54-45 in 2004), and Kay Hagan leading Dole by 55-41.

This poll may be influenced by the recent financial crisis — banking and finance is a major employer in Charlotte — which has affected the area in a big way with Citi’s acquisition of NC-based Wachovia. So we might be seeing a bounce that could fade to some degree — but it does give you a good indication of the GOP on the brink of a meltdown here.

In a new poll (h/t to Betsy at BlueNC Larry Kissell has a big lead on Robin Hayes.

As many of you likely know, Larry lost by just over 300 votes out of 120,000 cast in 2006.  He is back in force this time, with a lot of help on the air from the DCCC, and with a greatly expanded ground game.  What has that lead to?

Robin Hayes (R-inc) 43%

Larry Kissell (D) 54%

This is a Greenberg, Quinlan poll for the DCCC, 4.9% MOE.  The poll also showed Obama up 12 and Hagan up 14.  Most of the big movement to Larry is due to the fact that a majority of voters in this district know that Larry will do a better job on the economy, and will do more to protect workers.

The DCCC has filed nearly $1.6 million in media buys in support of House Democratic candidates tonight. Here’s the damage:

This is on top of $1.4 million in media buys filed in 15 other districts yesterday. Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has spent money on TV ads in LA-06, NJ-03, NM-02, NV-03, and WI-08.

For more details on these and other expenditures, please consult SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker.

The Wall Street Journal has an article on Democratic candidates whose faith is potentially an asset in winning over voters in conservative-leaning districts. The article features Judy Baker (MO-09) and Larry Kissell (NC-08).

http://online.wsj.com/article/…

During the primaries Judy Baker was dubbed as “too liberal” to win in the MO-09 and yet I have always felt that her biography and her Baptist faith allow her to connect with voters in the district and taht as many voters vote their identity rather than issues, she is an ideal liberal Democratic candidate for a deep red Bush +18 district like ours.

If you donate to Judy Baker at my webpage below, I’ll match you up to $300.

http://www.actblue.com/page/wa…

General Wesley Clark also has an ActBlue webpage for her:

http://www.actblue.com/page/3f…

Larry Kissell’s donation page is here:

http://www.actblue.com/page/la…

The DCCC is opening up their floodgates to some serious advertising expenditures in support of Democratic House candidates. Tonight, the committee filed $1.75 million in advertising expenditures in 15 districts:

These are some of the first significant media buys that the DCCC has made this fall, including a whopping $500K dumped against Jeb Bradley in NH-01.

The NRCC is continuing to maintain radio silence, because they can’t afford to match pace. I wonder if they’ll do some serious deficit financing in order to stay afloat this year.

More details on these and other expenditures are available in SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker. The DCCC has made some of these ads available to view online on their multimedia page.

Of all the feedback we get about our House Race Ratings project, one of the more common questions sent our way is the reasoning behind our placing of North Carolina’s 8th District in the “Lean Republican” column. After all, SSP is the only outfit which does not rate this race as a “Tossup”.

Roll Call has an article (with the unfortunate title of “Kissell of Death?”) that contains a few tidbits that might best explain our reticence:

Kissell, who lost to Hayes by 329 votes in 2006 when he raised little money and had no help from national Democrats, initially set out to raise more than $1.2 million this cycle, according to his campaign. But as of July 1, the social studies teacher had raised just $676,000 and, despite not having a primary opponent, he had burned through two-thirds of his campaign cash, leaving his campaign with about $230,000 in the bank going into the homestretch.

Kissell has spent nearly two-thirds of the money that he’s raised so far this cycle, but where has the bulk of that money gone? The answer might surprise you:

[Kissell spokesman Thomas] Thacker pushed back on suggestions that the campaign budgeted poorly or paid too much for political consultants and fundraising expenses, which have gobbled up more than $250,000 this cycle.

That’s a lot of dough to spend… to not raise much dough.

Now, Kissell still does have a lot of things going for him, including a very active ground game and the Obama campaign’s aggressive turnout efforts in North Carolina. The DCCC has also started to make good on their pledge to support Kissell; the committee pumped $120,000 in media buys here earlier this week. Kissell still could pull this one out based on these factors, but we’re not especially thrilled by Kissell’s inability to play much defense against Robin Hayes’ ad wars.

Public Policy Polling (8/25-27, likely voters, 7/2-5 in parens):

Larry Kissell (D): 39 (36)

Robin Hayes (R-inc): 44 (43)

Thomas Hill (L): 4 (7)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Hayes still maintains the edge, on account of his strength among Democrats (19% to Kissell’s 69%), Republicans (83-8) and Independents (43-27). But he’s still well under 50%, and there are ominous signs up the ballot in this R+3 district: Kay Hagan is leading Dole by 45-41 in the state’s U.S. Senate race, and Obama and McCain’t are tied at 43% each.

This one is gonna be a slugfest.