Tag: CO-Sen

• CO-Sen: That was fast… two days after saying he was probably going to drop out of the Colorado Senate race, now Weld County DA Ken Buck is likely to stay in the race. Apparently there has been enough conservative discontent over the seeming annointment by the NRSC and state party of former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton as the nominee that Buck may feel he can ride that backlash to primary victory. (Norton may well be conservative herself, but she’s such a blank slate that there’s no way to tell, and at any rate, conservative activists aren’t taking kindly to DC meddling this year, as we’ve seen in the Missouri and New Hampshire races.)

• FL-Sen: Too cute by half? Charlie Crist’s appointment of his ex-Chief of Staff, George LeMieux, to the Senate is getting panned by many of the major newspaper editorial boards in the state. (J)

• IA-Sen: Big Bruce Braley boffo boomlet busts! The sophomore Representative confirmed that, despite a sudden flurry of speculation, he’ll stay where he is, and not run against Chuck Grassley for the Senate. Former state legislators Bob Krause and Tom Fiegen are already in the race.

• IL-Sen: Here’s another Senate race where the GOP rabble is getting restive about one candidate getting the establishment stamp of approval. There are eight other candidates besides Mark Kirk, and religious right ultra-conservatives are trying to coalesce behind one, with Hinsdale real estate developer Patrick Hughes seeming to get the most mention. The most notable name in the anti-Kirk camp? Phyllis Schlafly of the Eagle Forum, who’s 85 and still going strong. The article does mention that there have been several other Senate primaries in Illinois where a conservative upstart beat the establishment moderate, most notably Al Salvi’s upset of Bob Kustra in the open seat race of 1996.

• KY-Sen: You better believe it’s on. Rand Paul’s backers are gearing up for another Moneybomb!, this time cleverly scheduled for the same day (Sep. 23) as Trey Grayson’s big DC fundraiser where he’ll be feted by 23 Republican Senators.

• LA-Sen: David Vitter seems like he has an endless supply of horse’s heads to put in the beds of potential GOP primary opponents. This time, former Lt. General and Katrina recovery hero Russel Honore backed down within a few days of his rumored interest appearing, much the same as with Suzanne Terrell and John Cooksey.

• MA-Sen: There was a brief flurry of speculation that Vicki Kennedy, Ted Kennedy’s widow, would be the placeholder short-term appointee to his seat (assuming Massachusetts Dems followed through on changing state law regarding appointment), pushed along by Sens. Dodd and Hatch. However, it now appears she’s not interested in the interim appointment (or running in the special). Meanwhile, the many contenders among the Massachusetts House delegation are watching what ex-Rep. Joe Kennedy II does; Ed Markey and Michael Capuano, for instance, both sound eager to run in the special election but will defer to a member of the Kennedy family.

• NV-Sen: There’s the old expression about not picking fights with people who buy ink by the barrel, but Harry Reid and the Las Vegas Review-Journal are getting into a little pissing match. Reid told the LVRJ that “I hope you go out of business.” The LVRJ’s publisher shot back, calling him a “bully” and decrying his “creepy tactic.” (I expect a Reid press release saying something about rubber and glue is forthcoming.)

• AL-Gov: The specific details seem few and far between, but Ben Smith leaks some tidbits about an AL-Gov poll commissioned by the Alabama Education Association (the state’s teacher’s union, naturally a pro-Democratic organization). It’s good news for Rep. Artur Davis, who leads all GOPers in the race, ranging from ex-judge Roy Moore by 6 to Treasurer Kay Ivey by 12. Davis also leads Ag Commissioner Ron Sparks by 30 in the Dem primary, and has a 3-to-1 favorable ratio.

• NJ-Gov: The Jon Corzine camp is out with a hard-hitting new TV spot, nailing Chris Christie over his undisclosed loan to carpool buddy Michele Brown. Also, unsurprisingly but critical to his survival, Corzine got the SEIU‘s endorsement last Friday.

• PA-Gov: Scranton mayor Chris Doherty has been casting a wide net as he looks for a step up, considering the Lt. Gov. spot and a PA-11 primary challenge against Paul Kanjorski, but now he may be considering the big enchilada: a run for Governor. With the two Dem frontrunners both anti-abortion Pittsburgh-area Dems (Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato and state Auditor Jack Wagner), there’s may be an opening for someone pro-choice from the East (which is something ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel is also considering).

• VA-Gov: Republican AG Bob McDonnell’s attempts to position himself as a moderate in the Virginia Governor’s race hit a big snag this weekend, as the Washington Post took a look at the master’s thesis he wrote while a 34-year old graduate student at Pat Robertson’s Regent University. McDonnell railed against feminists, working mothers, contraceptive use by married couples, cohabitators, homosexuals, and fornicators. McDonnell protests rather weakly that his views have “changed” since he wrote the thesis.

• CA-10: SurveyUSA is out with their final poll of the special election to replace Ellen Tauscher, and finds little movement in the past two weeks. Lt. Gov. John Garamendi (D) leads with 25%, followed by Republican David Harmer with 20%. The other two major Dems in the race, state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier and Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, are at 16% and 12%, respectively. (J)

• MO-04: Retiring GOP Sen. Kit Bond seems displeased that national Republicans are trying to knock off veteran Democratic Rep. Ike Skelton next year. In an interview during a recent Cardinals game, Bond said that “it’s very very important for us to have a man like Ike Skelton” in Congress. (J)

• Data: The Office of the House Clerk has released its biennial summary of the 2008 presidential & congressional elections (PDF). The document contains official results for every federal race in the nation, all in one place. (D)

Lots of big moves in the Colorado Senate race to report.

First, comes the big whopper. After Michael Bennet appeared to succeed in deterring any primary challengers from emerging in the many months since his appointment, former Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff is going to take the plunge, according to the Denver Post:

Former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff is poised to mount a Democratic primary campaign against Sen. Michael Bennet.

Urged to challenge Gov. Bill Ritter as he seeks re-election in 2010, Romanoff has instead turned his attention to next year’s U.S. Senate race, sources close to Romanoff told The Denver Post. One source reported that Romanoff offered a campaign position to a veteran Democratic strategist.

Romanoff could not be reached for comment Friday night, but several people close to him said they expect him to announce next month.

Wally Stealey, a longtime lobbyist and political mover in Pueblo, said Romanoff called him Friday morning to tell him he had decided to run.

Romanoff was apparently under a lot of pressure from labor officials and activists to challenge Gov. Bill Ritter in the Democratic primary. (Ritter, as you may be aware, has utterly poisoned his relationship with organized labor in the state by issuing veto after veto of union-backed legislation.) It seems that Romanoff considers the fresh outta prep-school Bennet to be the easier target. While Bennet hasn’t been awful in office, he hasn’t exactly endeared himself to anyone in particular yet, either. This will be a primary well worth watching.

On the GOP side of the equation, it looks like the race is beginning to streamline around the NRSC’s pick, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton. With Bob Beauprez’s drop-out still fresh in the press, it appears that Weld County DA Ken Buck is also going to pull the plug on his candidacy on Monday, clearing another obstacle for Norton. Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier is still in the race, but his fundraising has been well below par, as is unknown businessman Cleve Tidwell. Former state Sen. Tom Wiens may also make a race of it, but there’s little doubt that he’s under pressure to stay out.

(Hat-tip: Rtael)

SSP currently rates this race as Lean D.

RaceTracker Wiki: CO-Sen

http://www.denverpost.com/ci_1…

Looks like Bennet will be getting a primary challenge from Andrew Romanoff, presumably from the left? Sorry for a short diary but I’m not amazingly familiar with CO politics so I have more questions than answers. First of all is this article legit and is Romanoff really getting in? If he does get in, does he overcome Bennet’s current money advantage and his quasi-incumbency? Does this primary help or hurt our chances in the general election?

I for one will be pretty happy if Romanoff does pull the trigger. I think Bennet has been a pretty bad senator from liberal/left-moderate perspective and he doesn’t really have any great outside assets like a huge fund-raising capacity or good campaigning skills.

Politico:

Former GOP congressman Bob Beauprez announced tonight that he will not be running against Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo).

“Having been presented with the potential to serve in the United States Senate, Claudia and I considered it very carefully. However after significant reflection, I will not be a candidate for the Senate in 2010,” Beauprez said in a statement.

A recent PPP poll had Beauprez beating Bennet by three points, but his favorability numbers were way underwater (30-40) — evidence of a lingering hangover that voters are having with the Beauprez brand after an embarrassing gubernatorial campaign in 2006. But it’s also evidence that Bennet will have to campaign hard (a new concept for him) even if the GOP selects a ham sandwich as its nominee.

ColoradoPols takes the news as a good sign that former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (who served for a term under Bill Owens) is in. Norton’s husband said last week that she’ll make a decision on the race “in 30 days“.

RaceTracker Wiki: CO-Sen

Our inboxes over at SSP World Headquarters are just about filled to the tipping point with new polls that have landed on our desks over the past few days. Let’s go through ’em.

• CO-Gov (8/14-16): Public Policy Polling takes another look at the Colorado gubernatorial race, and finds Bill Ritter gasping for air. Ex-GOP Rep. Scott McInnis beats Ritter 46-38, and Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry forces a 40-40 split race. Altogether, not much has changed since April. In the GOP primary, McInnis leads Penry by a 36-15 margin.

• CO-Sen (8/14-16): PPP also took a glance at the Republican Senate primary, and found potential candidate Bob Beauprez leading Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier 41-23, with Weld Co. DA Ken Buck straggling along at 15%. Not tested was former state Sen. Tom Weins, who has indicated his interest in the race.

• FL-Gov (8/4-5): Public Opinion Strategies is on the loose for the first time in Florida, polling for the pro-Republican Florida Justice Reform Institute. Testing the gubernatorial race, POS says that Bill McCollum is ahead by 48-37 over Democrat Alex Sink. While most pollsters agree that McCollum has the edge, this is his friendliest margin by several points.

• GA-Gov (8/18): State Insurance Commish John Oxendine still has a healthy lead in Rasmussen’s latest Georgia poll over his rabid pack of GOP rivals, with 31% to 13% each for Rep. Nathan Deal and SoS Karen Handel. That’s only a very slight dip for Oxendine since last time, but perhaps new evidence of crum-bummery may stall any momentum for Deal.

In the Democratic primary, ex-Gov. Roy Barnes leads state AG Thurbert Baker by a whopping 42-9 margin; state House Minority Leader DuBose Porter is in third with 7%. Rasmussen has consistently shown Baker with a dramatically lower level of support than we’ve seen from other pollsters. (A Strategic Vision poll from a month ago had Barnes up over Baker by only 46-31.) Someone’s way off.

• IA-Gov (7/23-26): The Iowa First Foundation, a pro-GOP 527, paid an undisclosed pollster to test the re-election strength of Democratic Gov. Chet Culver. Culver leads every GOP challenger tested by fairly wide margins (though he’s still under 50%)… except for ex-Republican Gov. Terry Branstad, who crushes Culver by 53-34. Republicans seem to feel pretty good about their chances of luring Branstad into the race.

• IL-Sen (“early August”): Supposedly, the Alexi Giannoulias campaign will release an internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner showing their boy leading Republican Mark Kirk by a margin “outside the margin of error of 3%”.

• MA-Gov (7/31-8/3): And speaking of incumbents with a lot to worry about, Gov. Deval Patrick looks to be facing a pretty treacherous path to re-election if you believe a recent survey by Opinion Dynamics (R). State Treasurer Tim Cahill, a Democrat-turned-independent, leads Patrick by 27-25, with former Harvard Pilgrim CEO Charlie Baker, a Republican, close behind at 23%. With Christy Mihos as the GOP candidate, the race sits at 29% Cahill, 27% Patrick, and 21% for Mihos.

• NV-Gov (8/17-18): Mason-Dixon gins up a number of permutations for the Nevada gubernatorial race. First, the primaries: for the Democrats, Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman leads Nevada Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley by 34-25, with Clark Co. Commissioner Rory Reid (son of Harry) lagging behind at a pitiful 13%. In a two-way race against Buckley, Reid trails by 43-22. Regardless of whether or not Goodman runs (and if he does, it seems more likely that he’ll do so as an independent than as a Democrat), this is good news for Democrats, as Reid is by far the weakest candidate of the batch — and I don’t think it’ll be beneficial for pappy for the Reid name to be so over-exposed in 2010.

Against Gibbons, all three Democrats are on top; Goodman romps by 56-29, Buckley by 50-34, and Reid by 47-35. However, the chances of Gibbons being re-nominated are pretty slim. Ex-state AG Brian Sandoval, who recently resigned from the federal bench and is expected to run in the GOP primary, has an early 33-17 lead over Gibbons. With Sandoval at the top of the ticket, Republican fortunes get a big boost; he leads Goodman by 45-38, Buckley by 44-36, and Reid by 49-32.

• NV-Sen (8/17-18): In Nevada’s Senate race, Mason-Dixon finds that Harry Reid should be sweating buckets. Though his best challenger, Rep. Dean Heller, has already ruled out a run (Mase-Dix says he would’ve beaten Reid by 50-40), his lesser-known GOP opponents also give him a pounding. Frequent loser Danny Tarkanian (son of former UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian) beats Reid by 49-38, and NV GOP Chair Sue Lowden leads by 45-40, pretty much right in line with a pair of recent internal polls released by the camps of Lowden and Tarkanian. Not good.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (registered voters, 8/14-16, 4/17-19 in parens):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 39 (42)

Bob Beauprez (R): 42 (43)

Undecided: 19 (16)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 38 (39)

Ryan Frazier (R): 33 (35)

Undecided: 30 (26)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 39 (40)

Ken Buck (R): 35 (34)

Undecided: 26 (26)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Tom Jensen:

Michael Bennet’s approval rating is just as bad as it was when we polled Colorado in April but voters in the state don’t like any of his possible Republican opponents either, leaving this Senate contest pretty wide open.

38% of voters in the state disapprove of Bennet’s job performance so far with 31% approving. Those numbers are roughly equal to our previous survey which found the numbers at 41% disapproval to 34% approval. There are two primary reasons for Bennet’s net negative ratings. The first is that Republicans disapprove (62%) of him more than Democrats approve of him (57%). The second is that he’s getting unfavorable reviews from independents, 36% of whom disapprove of him compared to 29% approving. …

Potential Republican opponents Bob Beauprez, Ryan Frazier, and Ken Buck all get overall negative reviews from voters in the state as well. 40% have an unfavorable opinion of Beauprez to 30% with a positive one. For Frazier it’s 19% negative and 11% favorable and for Buck the numbers are 18% unfavorable and 17% favorable.

Though he calls the race “wide open,” Jensen also thinks Bennet would only lose to Beauprez in a 1994-style meltdown. Still, it’s depressing to even be thinking in those terms, and it’s dispiriting to see Bennet locked in at about 40% regardless of his opponent. (In case you were wondering, Frazier is an Aurora City Councilman and Buck is the Weld County District Attorney. Both jurisdictions are in the quarter-million range in terms of population.)

PPP will have more Colorado numbers over the course of the week, including GOP primary numbers for both the Senate and gubernatorial races, as well as Obama approvals.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Dem.

RaceTracker Wiki: CO-Sen

• CO-Sen: Did someone feed Bob Beauprez after midnight? Because more and more Republican Senate contenders seem to be hatching in Colorado lately. The newest potential candidate, former Lt. Governor Jane Norton, who served under GOP Gov. Bill Owens in his second term, is “seriously considering” challenging newbie Democrat Michael Bennet, and will “make a decision in 30 days”.

• CT-04: Republicans may have been dealt a huge blow to their chances of knocking off frosh Democrat Jim Himes when state Senate minority leader John McKinney decided to stay put, but it looks like they’ve rebounded somewhat with the recruitment of state Sen. Dan Debicella. Debicella will be facing primary competition, though, as former state Sen. Bob Russo of Bridgeport also threw his hat into the ring yesterday. Russo doesn’t have a ton of elected experience under his belt, though; he won a special election in early 2008, but was swamped out of his Senate seat by the Obama tide last November after only 10 months in office. Russo seems to be striking a Shays-like tone in his early remarks, while Debicella sounds more like a meat-and-potatoes conservative.

• FL-Gov: The Florida Chamber of Commerce released a poll yesterday showing Republican Bill McCollum leading Dem CFO Alex Sink by a 43-34 margin. No word on which outfit actually conducted the poll, but it wouldn’t be too far out of line with the most recent public polls we’ve seen out of the Sunshine state.

• KS-03: After dispatching highly-touted GOP state Sen. Nick Jordan last year without breaking much of a sweat (dude clearly picked the wrong cycle to run), Democratic Rep. Dennis Moore may face another legitimate opponent in 2010. Terry Goodman, a city councilor from Overland Park (a populous Kansas City suburb), says he’s “taking a look” at a congressional run.

• NE-02: It looks like GOP Rep. Lee Terry may want to spend less time casting lines for Obama-Terry voters and start keeping an eye on his right flank. Terry is facing a primary challenge from businessman and self-described Reagan Republican Matt Sakalosky, much to the discomfort of Douglas County Republicans. Sakalosky, angry at Lee Terry’s TARP vote last fall, has no elected experience, but insists that he’s well-versed for the job because he “watches television news and reads political biographies”. (Don’t laugh; the fact that he actually reads books probably puts him a peg above a few of the ass-scratching mouth-breathers filling out the ranks in the Boehner caucus.)

• NJ-Gov: If Jon Corzine is going to be re-elected, he won’t be doing so with the help of the Sierra Club. The environmental org endorsed independent candidate Chris Daggett yesterday, himself a one-time environmental protection commissioner under former GOP governor Tom Kean.

• NV-Sen, NV-Lt. Gov: Nevada’s GOP Lt. Governor, Brian Krolicki, facing a felony indictment over the mishandling of state funds, has announced that he’ll seek re-election next year. Krolicki, as you may recall, formed an exploratory committee for a race against Harry Reid not long before he was slapped with the indictment. He must be hoping for a dynamite year for the GOP if he thinks he can pull a Don Young.

• NY-Gov: Are we preparing for life after David Paterson already? GOP gubernatorial hopeful Rick Lazio is looking a few chess moves ahead by picking a fight with state AG Andrew Cuomo over his office not following through with an investigation into the hiring of state Pedro G. Espada (son of crumb-bum Sen. Pedro Espada Jr.) for a well-paid job with the state Senate Democrats. Cuomo, who raised the issue of the dubious hire before anyone else, ended the investigation after Pedro G. resigned last week.

• PA-06: It looks like newspaperman Doug “Captain” Pike has effectively sealed the Democratic nomination for the open seat race to replace Jim Gerlach; the 800 pound gorilla in the district, state Sen. Andy Dinniman, announced yesterday that he’s deciding to keep his powder dry, citing the uncertainties of redistricting as his key reason. ’08 Dem nominee Bob Roggio also pulled the plug on a do-over last Friday.

• TN-09: Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton denies that he has a mental problem.

• VA-05: Everyone expects freshly-minted Dem Rep. Tom Perriello to face a tough re-election campaign next year, but we’re still waiting to figure out who the GOP plans to nominate. A couple of new candidates stepped up to the plate this weekend: high school biology teacher Feda Kidd Morton and real estate investor Laurence Verga both say that they’ll join “FairTax advocate” Bradley S. Rees in the Republican primary. GOP bigwigs are likely holding out hope for a candidate with more obvious firepower, such as state Sen. Robert Hurt or Albemarle County Supervisor Ken Boyd, who says that he’s “still considering it very seriously”.

• WI-Gov, WI-01, WI-03: Democratic Lt. Governor Barbara Lawton is officially in the race to replace Jim Doyle, and congressman Ron Kind is also weighing the race heavily. Kind says that he will make a decision “in the weeks to come”. Open seat watchers will be aware that Kind is currently being challenged by Republican state Sen. Dan Kapanke, whose track record of winning over Dem-leaning voters would put this D+3 seat at serious risk should it come open. And in case you were wondering, 1st District GOP Rep. Paul Ryan pre-empted any speculation that he may run by putting out a statement denying his interest.

• 2010: It’s pretty early, but some prognosticators are already making predictions for next year’s mid-terms:

“There’s offense and there’s defense. Right now, you’re going to be spending time on defense,” said Charlie Cook of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “Intensity matters a lot. Last time you [Democrats] had it, this time they [Republicans] have it,” Mr. Cook said, adding that he expects about a 20-seat loss in the 2010 mid-term elections.

Poll analyst Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com did not agree with Mr. Cook. He expects Democrats to do even worse.

Mr. Silver said Democrats often told him his Obama-friendly polls comforted them last fall. “I don’t think you should feel at all comforted about 2010,” he said to a standing-room-only crowd. He said he expects Democrats will lose from 20 to 50 House seats and up to six Senate seats next year.

What’s your take?

In sports, people spend a lot of time talking about “prospects”, the young talent in the minor leagues that they expect to see in the major leagues in the future. I thought it would be an interesting thread if we talked about folks who are now in the “minors” (ie state legislatures, mayors, and other fields) that would be good candidates for major offices (Gov, Sen, US House) sometime soon.

So, without further delay, here are five profiles of people to watch. I’m interested in seeing what other prospects are out there….

1. Andrew Romanoff (Colorado)

Who Is He: Former Speaker of the Colorado State House, represented the 6th State House District

Where Would He Run: CO-Sen? CO-Gov?

Why Isn’t He In Congress Already: Romanoff had the misfortune of retiring just as every single possible slot in the state delegation that’s winnable for a Dem got filled. If someone less quirky than Bill Ritter was Governor, he likely would have been tapped for an appointment to Salazar’s vacated Senate seat. The other problem for Romanoff is that even though Dems control the trifecta in Colorado, it would be very difficult and risky to draw another Dem seat, as Markey has to be shored up as does John Salazar (though much less so); there almost certainly has to be at least one GOP seat based in Colorado Springs, and probably, although not certainly, another based in Douglas County.

Theoretically, he could challenge Ritter or Bennet in the primary, though that would be a mighty tough slog. Ritter is vulnerable on his left flank to an extent. DeGette’s too popular in the 1st, so unless Obama appoints her to something, that avenue is closed.

2. Christopher Hurst (Washington State)

Who Is He: State Representative for the 31st House District in Southern King and Pierce Counties

Where Would He Run: WA-08

Why He Isn’t In Congress Already: Hurst has considered running for Congress in Washington’s 8th District against Dave Reichert before. I’m convinced the reason he hasn’t is that he’d have a tough time making it through a primary, as the bulk of the Democratic vote is up in the Bellevue area. Hurst is from the Southern part of the district which is less populated and generally more conservative.

If you could get him through a primary, he matches up perfectly against Reichert-he’s a former cop, so Reichert can’t out law and order him, and he’s also a proven vote getter in swingy South King and the conservative Pierce County.

3. Sean Logan (Pennsylvania)

Who He Is: State Senator for the 45th District, lives in the Pittsburgh suburb of Monroeville

Where He Would Run: PA-18 or its successor

Why Isn’t He In Congress Already: Logan has been repeatedly wooed as a challenger for Tim Murphy, but has declined. Logan doesn’t actually live in the 18th, which is insanely gerrymandered, but lives just over the line in Mike Doyle’s 14th.

Logan may simply be waiting for redistricting, as the map is likely to be drawn by a judge, and there is absolutely no way Murphy, who is ethically on shaky ground, will get anywhere near as Republican a seat as he has now. Even as is, the 18th isn’t a great seat for Murphy; trust me when I say that the PVI here lies by at least 3 points, and that a local Dem could easily win here. Obama and Kerry were both terrible fits for the 18th, and Gore only lost here by 5.

4. Rafael Anchia/Kirk England (Texas)

Who Are They: Texas State House Reps for the 103rd (Anchia) and 106th (England) Districts, England is a former Republican who switched parties

Where Will They Run: Texas’s new “33rd” District

Why Aren’t They In Congress Already: Here’s the situation; prior to the DeLaymander, metro Dallas had two pretty solid Dem seats, the 30th a minority majority district based in Dallas, and the Arlington based 24th, held by Martin Frost which was a “coalition” district. In re-redistricting, the 24th got chopped up among several districts with a lot ending up in a new GOP 24th and Pete Sessions 32nd. This has led to both of these districts starting to fall off a cliff for the GOP because of explosive latino growth. McCain only won 24 with 55% and 32 with a mere 53%, danger territory by Texas standards.

So, unless they want a Pennsylvania style disaster in North Texas, they’re going to have to create some sort of Democratic district to pack all of the Dems together. There’s a fair amount of debate as to how they will do this, with one thought being that it will end up as a Latino plurality Fort Worth based seat, while some others feel that they’ll recreate something like the old 24th and make it a coalition district.

Both Anchia and England are well placed for whatever they create, and I have to think that one of them will almost certainly run for the new seat.

Politico:

Former Republican congressman Bob Beauprez told POLITICO that he is “leaning towards running” against Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) because he doesn’t think any of the party’s current crop of candidates can win.

“There’s a general sense that our field isn’t really set on our side, and Bennet is quite vulnerable,” said Beauprez. “We’re looking at it — with an increased sense of urgency.”

Beauprez said the administration’s policies on health care and energy have been driving him to jump in the race. But he remains concerned whether he will be able to raise enough money in a tough environment for fundraising.

He said he will have to make his decision soon, but didn’t set a timetable.

I don’t doubt that Bennet is vulnerable to a challenge, but is Bob Beauprez the man to beat him? Beauprez, as you may remember, was last seen losing the 2006 gubernatorial race in Colorado to Democrat Bill Ritter in a humiliating fashion (17 points worth of humiliation, to be precise). Beauprez won’t be facing that kind of headwind again next year if he chooses to run, but he may have to work hard to earn back some credibility with the GOP base — and everyone else.

UPDATE: ColoradoPols hears through the grapevine that Beauprez is telling his friends that he’s gonna run.

RaceTracker Wiki: CO-Sen

• CO-Sen: The field is slow to take shape for the Republicans in the Colorado Senate race, where they should theoretically have a decent shot at the never-before-elected and uncharismatic appointee Michael Bennet. One more candidate seems to be moving to join the field: former state Sen. Tom Weins, from the exurban GOP stronghold of Douglas County. Weins is the CEO of a real estate finance company, so he brings self-funding to the table (although some of that may be contingent on finding a buyer for his $38 million ranch). Inexperienced Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier and grumpy Weld Co. DA Ken Buck are the leading candidates for the GOP nod for now.

• NH-Sen: The Nashua Telegraph points to some skepticism from the conservative wing of the GOP about newly minted candidate Kelly Ayotte; apparently, her joining Gov. John Lynch in urging communities to apply for stimulus funds makes her not sufficiently fiscally conservative for some in the rightosphere, who are wondering if they’ve got another Susan Collins on their hands here. With the presumably-more-conservative businessman Fred Tausch and former gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne still checking out the race, it seems like she may not have a clear primary path. Sensing some trouble here, the state party establishment is pushing back, rolling out ex-Sen. John Sununu to offer some promises that she’s a conservative, including that he “believes” that she opposes abortion rights.

• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Carolyn Maloney has apparently been holding off on her Senate primary announcement so that she won’t drive Bill Clinton off from her upcoming fundraiser. Clinton has vowed neutrality in the likely primary with Kirsten Gillibrand, and everyone is taking pains to point out that the fundraiser is for Maloney’s House account and intended as a ‘thank you’ for her support of the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2008. (Of course, she’ll still be able to transfer her House funds to a Senate race.)

• CO-Gov: Strange that the Colorado GOP is throwing all its top talent at Gov. Bill Ritter while leaving the Senate race with the second-stringers. Today 33-year-old state Senate minority leader Josh Penry made it official: he’s running for Governor, setting up a big primary collision with ex-Rep. (and Penry’s former boss, when he was a staffer) Scott McInnis.

• NJ-Gov: Dueling leaks of internal polls from the New Jersey governor’s race, as expected, paint very different pictures. The Corzine camp offers a poll showing a 4-point lead (42-38) for Chris Christie when factoring in independent Christopher Daggett (who polls at 4%). The RGA, however, has a poll giving Christie a showy lead of 15 pts. The polls were both conducted before Corzine hit the airwaves with an attack ad focusing on Christie’s ethical troubles.

• SC-Gov: The State, Columbia’s newspaper, takes a look at why, all of a sudden, Mark Sanford seems poised to survive his tango de la muerte, despite his dire straits before Sarah Palin stole the show. It’s broken down helpfully into bullet points: his wife is defending him for the first time, state law enforcement investigations found he broke no state laws, and state party leadership opted for censure rather than asking him to resign.

• MI-St. Sen.: If you haven’t seen Menhen’s diary rating our prospects in each of the upcoming Michigan State Senate races in 2010, take a peek. (The diary got some notice over at the DLCC‘s blog.) With the entire Senate up for re-election and control over Michigan redistricting in the balance, this is one of the key legislative battles in 2010… and with term limits hitting hard, there are only 8 incumbents running, with a whopping 30 open seats, so this is very much a wide-open battle.

• CfG: Roll Call takes a look at the Club for Growth under the new leadership of ex-Rep. Chris Chocola and finds, unfortunately for us, a slightly saner version of the CfG that seems more interested in playing in the general election rather than mucking up the primaries… although they did just put out that call for primary challengers against the 8 cap-and-trade defectors. For Tom Cole fans, the former NRCC head gets in some nice digs at the CfG.