Tag: GA-Sen

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (11/23-25, likely voters, 11/17-18 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 46 (45)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 52 (51)

Undecided: 2 (4)

(MoE: ±4%)

The problem for Jim Martin is that, for him to win, every single poll of the run-off needs to be wrong:

It is possible, of course, since everyone seems to be struggling in terms of projecting turnout (as you might expect with a one-off election like this). But I should point out that the first-round polls were pretty good (they had Saxby up four in aggregate, while his final margin was three).

Martin does have a 56-44 lead among early voters. Unfortunately, that’s rather similar to his 56-39 lead with early voters in the final R2K poll before Nov. 4th – clearly, it seems, all of the libertarian’s support migrated to Saxby. However, if election day turnout among Republicans is weak, there’s a chance this early vote might carry Martin, despite the much lower early African American turnout. Interestingly, it looks like a greater proportion of likely voters have voted early this time – 28% vs. 12% in that late October poll.

We’ll know soon enough.

Yes, I know that the runoff election for Saxby Chambliss’s seat hasn’t even been decided yet, but that doesn’t mean we can’t also look ahead to 2010, as our friends at Public Policy Polling are doing today.

According to PPP’s latest poll, frosh GOP Senator Johnny Isakson seems pretty unknown, sporting only a 30-25 approval rating (with a whopping 44% saying “not sure”). PPP was also kind enough to give us a look at some numbers of Isakson against two strong Democrats on Georgia’s bench (11/22-23, likely voters):

Thurbert Baker (D): 39

Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 45

Jim Marshall (D): 38

Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±3.3%)

I have my finger in this pie, as these match-ups were my suggestions. Not that I think either Marshall, who seems to be settling into his R+8 district, or Baker, Georgia’s African-American Attorney General, are likely to run, but it’s worth seeing how well Johnny would do against a pair of Democrats that at least some people have heard of in the state. And, sure enough, neither of these leads are particularly formidable, though Isakson still has two years to get his ass in gear (if he really needs to).

While Isakson isn’t one of the more obvious targets for Dems in 2010, perhaps there’s some potential here for a ambitious candidate to make a name for themselves in a race like this. After all, few thought that Jim Martin had much of a shot in his race this year, and he polled very poorly against Chambliss at the start of his campaign.

Public Policy Polling (11/22-23, likely voters):

Jim Martin (D): 46

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 52

(MoE: ±3.3%)

The usual caveats of special election/runoff polling still applies here, of course — it’s tough to nail down a good sample in a low-turnout election, but it’s worth noting that this result is nearly identical to a recent R2K poll showing Saxby up by 51-45.

Tom Jensen has more:

Chambliss leads 69-29 with white voters. Even with a higher than expected black turnout for the runoff that share of the white vote would not be good enough for Martin to win- he needs to move closer to a third of it.

Martin leads with voters under 45, but Chambliss has a staggering 69-31 lead with senior citizens, and with the balance of the electorate between older and younger voters tipping in an old direction for the runoff, that makes Martin’s climb that much harder.

If there’s some solace here, at least we know that the newer generation of Georgians is more progressive than the oldsters.

Not going quietly, the DSCC has a new poll of their own. The Mellman Group (11/21-23, likely voters):

Jim Martin (D): 46

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48

(MoE: ±4%)

At the very least, every post-election poll agrees that Martin is sitting in the mid-forties, which is still sort of remarkable given just how bad Georgia has looked for Democrats in the past couple of cycles. Anything can happen in a low-turnout election, but this race does seem to be leaning towards Chambliss.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (11/17-19, likely voters, 11/10-12 in parentheses):

Jim Martin (D): 45 (46)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 51 (49)

(MoE: ±4%)

The newest R2K poll of the Georgia senate runoff shows Jim Martin falling further behind incumbent Saxby Chambliss at 51-45, but Markos points out an interesting detail: the previous week’s poll, which was 49-46, found that the respondents had voted 49-47 for Chambliss in the general election (which closely mirrored the actual 49-46 result). This sample, however, finds that the respondents voted 52-44 in the general, suggesting a more Republican-leaning batch.

The fluctuation may also reflect some difficulty in pinning down who exactly fits the ‘likely voter’ mold for a runoff election: is it anyone who voted in November, or only someone who votes with regularity? Martin probably owes his close showing in the general to high turnout from young and/or African-American voters with sporadic voting track records but who were highly motivated to come out for Obama… and Obama seems hesitant to expend too much political capital on this race right now. On the other hand, with Republicans probably demoralized and undermotivated to return to the polls, and with a lot of Obama staffers deployed to the state, it’s at least possible Martin could pull out the upset through disparities in ground game.

Rasmussen (11/18, likely voters):

Jim Martin (D): 46

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 50

(MoE: ±4%)

So far, both publicly-released runoff period polls (R2K being the other) have showed little movement since November 4th. Chambliss still retains a slight lead, but as Nate Silver says, likely voter models are tough to set for special-type elections, and it’s difficult to make assumptions about turnout. Incredibly, 88% of Georgian voters say they are “certain” to vote in this runoff, which is a bit hard to believe considering that voter turnout was over 20 points lower on November 4th. In this race, so much will come down to getting out the vote, making the outcome difficult to predict.

I’m told that another pollster is about to go into the field here tomorrow, so we should have some more poll results to pick apart in a few days.

Interesting. Up until now, Republican media efforts in Georgia had yet to pound Jim Martin for his support of Barack Obama — even as Martin casts himself as a strong Obama supporter in his own ads. That changed today, as Saxby is now shaking things up by “going there”:

We saw in the special election in Mississippi’s 1st that attacking Obama led to a surge in African-American enthusiasm for Democrat Travis Childers. The difference here is that Chambliss’ ad is far less scurrilous (albeit still false) than the toxic waste that Greg Davis produced, and that Martin is running a campaign that seems entirely aimed at mobilizing Obama supporters to come out for a second time, rather than reaching out for crossover votes. We’ll just have to see which side is more ginned up.

(H/T: TPM EC)

The state of the day is Georgia, where we’ll see Senate and Governor’s races in 2010. Sonny Perdue is term-limited out of the Governor’s mansion, so there will be a lot of candidates — both Democratic and Republican — scrambling for this seat. For a time, it seemed like GOP Senator Johnny Isakson was angling to run for the open office, but he announced earlier this year that he’ll seek a second term in 2010 instead.

While Isakson will be tough to beat, someone’s gotta run against him. Who would you like to see step up to the plate? And who should the Democrats field for the gubernatorial race?

This is a quick reminder that the runoff election for U.S. Senate in Georgia will be on December 2, and there are many ways you can help Democrat Jim Martin beat Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss.

Depending on how the recount in Minnesota turns out, which won’t be resolved for a few weeks, Martin could be the key to getting Democrats to that magic filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

1. Go donate to Martin’s campaign. It will only take a minute of your time.

2. Help google-bomb Saxby Chambliss. This is easy, and Chris Bowers explains why it is helpful:

Have you started linking to Saxby Chambliss yet? The more people who do, the higher it will appear in search engine rankings. If we can push it into the first ten results for Saxby Chambliss in Georgia, then it will result in a lot of excellent voter contacts. Everyone who encounters the site will be a voter looking for more information on Saxby Chambliss, and we can show them this great website made by an enterprising activist.

Log on to the various blogs where you comment, and click on your user page. Then click “profile.” There should be an area where you can write text that will be your “signature,” attached to all comments you make.

You want to embed a link to the Saxby Chambliss website. Here is what I did:

See if Saxby Chambliss is helping you.

If you don’t know how to embed a link, write this all on one line with no spaces in between:

<

a href

=

“http://saxby-chambliss.com/”

>

Saxby Chambliss

<

/a

>

3. Kick in a few more bucks to Martin’s campaign.

4. If you live in Georgia or close enough to travel there, sign up to volunteer for Martin’s campaign during the next few weeks. You were planning to take some time off for Thanksgiving anyway, right? Set aside extra time to volunteer.

Remember that there are many ways to volunteer besides knocking on strangers’ doors and calling strangers on the phone. You can help sort literature for the canvassers. You can help stuff envelopes. You can bring a home-made meal to the campaign office for the staff and other volunteers. I heard of one woman in Iowa who used to do laundry for field organizers renting apartments without washing machines. Every hour that staffer doesn’t have to spend in a laundromat is an hour he or she can be getting out the vote for Jim Martin.

5. Ask some friends or relatives to make a campaign contribution. Explain to them that this race will affect the Republicans’ ability to obstruct the change we need.

Please feel free to suggest other ways activists can help Martin bring this race home.

UPDATE: MyDD commenter ATL Dem made a fantastic suggestion:

In the meantime, I’m also running this Google ad to assist in desmoinesdem’s project No. 2:

Hi from Saxby Chambliss

Read about my work in D.C.

Too bad it’s not for you!

saxby-chambliss.com

It’s getting monster response — over 15 percent of people searching for “Saxby Chambliss” are clicking it. The bad thing about that is that my $10 a day budget gets used up pretty fast, so if you’re of a mind to, go to Google and click on “Advertising Programs” and set up another ad.

Please feel free to steal this idea!

Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

One of the big question marks in Georgia’s ongoing U.S. Senate campaign is how much President-elect Barack Obama will get involved.

Democrat Jim Martin desperately wants Obama to come here to boost Martin’s campaign against Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss, who has already secured a promise from Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) to visit the state on Chambliss’ behalf.

Obama, however, had not responded to Martin’s overtures as of Sunday. And with the president-elect’s weekend calls for an end to partisan rancor after the Nov. 4 election, his involvement in Georgia’s bitter partisan brawl of a Senate race appeared anything but certain.

“Our campaign has talked to their campaign,” said Martin spokeswoman Kate Hansen. “And that it as far as it has gone. We would be honored to have him. We know his operation is incredibly busy right now.”

I hope this state of affairs changes soon. There is precedent for getting involved: President-elect Bill Clinton came down to GA to campaign for Wyche Fowler in his run-off against Paul Coverdell in 1992. I wouldn’t necessarily expect Obama to go that far, but even a single blast to his e-mail list could make a huge difference. So could a TV ad. It appears he may have sent some staffers to help Martin, but I think he can do more.

I can understand the Obama team wanting the election to be over, as far as they are concerned,  so that they can focus on governing. And I’m sure they don’t want to get into a potentially stature-diminishing proxy fight with John McCain (who is coming to the state for Chambliss). But I think that any such direct confrontation is easily avoided.

We’re going to have plenty of legislative fights which come down to a single vote in the Senate – and we’ll win a lot more of them with Jim Martin on our side.

Yesterday, I asked you to help Democrats Jim Martin and Mark Begich via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page as the Georgia Senate race heads toward a run-off against Shameless Saxby Chambliss and the Alaska Senate race heads toward a protracted vote count and possible legal battle against convicted felon Ted Stevens.

You responded with hundreds of dollars and we are so close to our goal on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page – please help Martin and Begich meet the goal this weekend:

Democrat	Current	Goal	Difference
Jim Martin	$3,385 $3,900	$4,000	$615 just $100
Mark Begich	$5,553 $5,820	$6,000	$447 just $180

Please make a contribution today via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page and help Jim Martin and Mark Begich eject Saxby Chambliss and Ted Stevens from the U.S. Senate.