With the Georgia Senate race headed toward a run-off election and the Alaska Senate race amid a protracted vote count, both Jim Martin and Mark Begich need your continued support!
Please, please, please make a contribution to them via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page this weekend!
| Democrat | Current | Goal | Difference |
| Jim Martin | $3,385 | $4,000 | $615 |
| Mark Begich | $5,553 | $6,000 | $447 |
Please, please, please contribute this weekend!
Well, now that the Republican ticket has a lot of free time on their hands, it looks like they’re about to lend an assist to their buddy Saxby Chambliss in his December runoff election against hard-charging Democrat Jim Martin:
U.S. Sen. John McCain will come to Georgia to campaign for Republican U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss, the Moultrie lawmaker’s campaign confirmed Friday.
“We just have to work out the dates,” said Chambliss’s spokeswoman, Michelle Grasso.
Grasso said the campaign is also in touch with Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s office about a possible Georgia appearance.
“She wants to come down, but right now we are working with her schedulers to see if that’s possible,” Grasso said.
It’s no secret that Martin’s strategy is to turn out as many Obama fans as possible for the runoff — he’s already airing an ad hitching himself to Obama’s wagon. But will Obama lift a finger? My guess is not likely — especially with the news that McCain will campaign for Chambliss.
Look at it this way: Obama’s already beaten McCain once. I don’t think he wants to turn this race into a proxy war, allowing the pundits to chatter about how McCain “beat Obama” in this contest if Martin lost. No, I have a feeling that Obama will stay on the sidelines here.
Martin’s best hope may be to get Bill Clinton, the last Democratic presidential candidate to win this state, to return on his behalf.
Here are some handy links for those of you following the still undecided races for Congress and the Electoral College.
[UPDATE1: Added CA-04]
[UPDATE2: Added CA-44 and AK-AL. Added current margins]
AK-Sen [Mark Begich (D) vs. Ted Stevens (R)]:
Margin: Stevens +3,257 11/7 3:41 PM EDT
http://www.elections.alaska.go…
[Charlie Brown (D) vs. Tom McClintock (R)]:
Margin: McClintock +709 11/7 3:27 PM EDT
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/Returns…
CA-44 [Bill Hedrick (D) vs. Ken Calvert (R)]:
Margin: Calvert +5,264 11/7 3:28 PM EDT
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/Returns…
GA-Sen [Jim Martin (D) vs. Saxby Chambliss (R)]:
Margin: Chambliss .2% below 50% 11/7 3:33 PM EDT
http://sos.georgia.gov/electio…
MD-01 [Frank Kratovil (D) vs. Andy Harris (R)]:
Margin: Kratovil +2,003 11/7 3:25 PM EDT
http://www.elections.state.md….
MN-Sen [Al Franken (D) vs. Norm Coleman (R)]:
Margin: Coleman +239 11/7 3:24 PM EDT
http://electionresults.sos.sta…
MO-Pres:
Margin: McCAin +5,859 11/7 3:39 PM EDT
http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrmaps/…
NE-02-Pres:
Margin: McCain +569 11/7 3:26 PM EDT
http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/200…
OH-15: [Mary Jo Kilroy (D) vs. Steve Stivers (R)]:
Margin: Stivers +146 11/7 3:21 PM EDT
http://vote.sos.state.oh.us/pl…
VA-05 [Tom Periello (D) vs. Virgil Goode (R)]:
Margin: Periello +745 11/7 3:18 PM EDT
https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virg…
WA-08 [Darcy Burner (D) vs. Dave Reichart (R)]:
Margin: Reichard +5,332 11/7 3:22 PM EDT
http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/W…
A roundup of races that haven’t yet been decided:
AK-Sen: Will this race be finalized before Ted Stevens is carted off to the big house? Answer: Yes. Will it be over before the Senate has a chance to boot his sorry ass? Maybe not. While Unca Ted has a 3,300-vote lead, some 76,000 ballots remain to be counted. Supposedly, they need to be counted by Nov. 14th, but the “target date” for certification is not until Nov. 25th (PDF). And then, who knows – maybe we’ll have a recount.
P.S. More here from Mark Begich’s brother Tom.
CA-04: Conservative Icon™ Tom McClintock has a 451-vote lead with 100% of precincts counted. Absentees and provisional ballots need to be counted. But check this out:
If no candidate is more than ½ of 1 percentage point ahead in the semiofficial Election Day results, county election officials will automatically begin partial manual audits. After the counties deliver their totals to the secretary of state in December the candidates will have the option to ask for a recount. (Emphasis added.)
We could be waiting a long time on this one.
GA-Sen: This race will likely go to a run-off between Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin. A run-off can’t formally be declared until the state certifies the election results next week, and outstanding votes could possibly tip the race to Chambliss. Nonetheless, both sides are in campaign mode. If there is a run-off, it will be held Dec. 2nd.
LA-04: This seat will also feature a run-off between Dem Paul Carmouche and Republican John Fleming. The date for that face-off is Dec. 6th.
MD-01: Dem Frank Kratovil is sitting on a 915-vote lead. But some 25,000 absentee ballots need to be counted. Results get certified Nov. 14th – not too bad, compared to some other states.
MN-Sen: An automatic recount seems certain here. Dickface Norm Coleman leads by a mind-boggling 475 votes out of 2.9 million cast. (Shades of WA-Gov 2004?) Oh, and here’s why I’m calling him a dickface. State law provides for an automatic recount if the margin is less than 0.5%. Yet this is what he’s said:
“Yesterday the voters spoke. We prevailed,” Coleman said Wednesday at a news conference. He noted Franken could opt to waive the recount.
“It’s up to him whether such a step is worth the tax dollars it will take to conduct,” Coleman said, telling reporters he would “step back” if he were in Franken’s position. Secretary of State Mark Ritchie said the recount would cost 3 cents per ballot, or almost $90,000.
What a chiseler – ninety-fucking-thousand dollars. That’s like one wealthy-donor-funded Nieman Marcus shopping spree for this douchenozzle. Anyhow, the same article says that a recount won’t begin until mid-November and could take “weeks.” Lawyers, ten-hut!
OH-15: As noted below, GOPer Steve “Steve” Stivers is ahead of Mary Jo Kilroy by just 321 votes. We may get final results in ten days, or maybe longer. If the final margin is under 0.5%, then there will be an automatic recount. We had one of those last time in this very same race – it took until mid-December to complete.
VA-05: Dem Tom Perriello is clinging to a 31-vote lead over incumbent Virgil Goode. Absentees need to be counted. This race will surely go to a recount. However, VA law does not provide for automatic recounts, and a candidate cannot request one until after the official canvas is complete. That isn’t until Nov. 24th, so sit tight.
WA-08: Good idea: Let’s allow everyone in Washington state to vote by mail! Bad idea: Let’s make the rule that you have to postmark your ballot by election day. In neighboring Oregon (the vote-by-mail pioneer), ballots sensibly have to be received by election day. But Washington has decided to do things the annoying way, so it’ll be a while before we get final results here – election officials say it’ll take a week to count all the ballots. (Though I don’t know if there is a drop-dead date by which ballots must be received.)
Anyhow, in the meantime, we know that GOPer Dave Reichert has about a 1,900-vote lead over Darcy Burner. The good news is that in 2006, Reichert won by 14.83% in Pierce County and 0.15% in King County. This time so far, he’s ahead by just 12.22% in Pierce and is behind 1.62% in King, which has 80% of the district’s population. My sense is that Burner probably has to start doing a little bit better in King to pull this one off.
UPDATE: Skywaker9 says that properly postmarked ballots have to be received within a week in WA.
LATE UPDATE (James): In the shocker race in California’s 44th District, where unheralded Dem challenger Bill Hedrick is trailing GOP scuzzbucket Rep. Ken Calvert by 4600 votes, neither side has declared victory yet.
This is it. It’s time for my final look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent. So what are the competitive races?
Again, just to be clear, I don’t do predictions. Every time I do, horrible things happen. So I won’t even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner. And with the election tomorrow, tiers no longer matter, so I’ll simply rank the competitive races where party control of the seat may switch. All others are deemed safe seats, which now include all of the Tier II and III seats from last time.
See my previous mid-October diary to see what things have changed since my last update. Previous rankings are in parentheses.
Tier I
1. Virginia (1): Former popular Governor Mark Warner (D) is still cruising. Former unpopular former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) hasn’t even gotten above 35% in any poll taken since early September, and Warner cannot get below 55%. Only God or the Devil can stop this one now, but still, no official predictions from me.
2. New Mexico (2): Rep. Tom Udall (D) is running against Rep. Steve Pearce (R). Since October, Udall’s re-opened his massive lead after getting hit by attacks from conservative independent groups. Pearce has not gotten above 42% since early September, while Udall has been consistently over the 50% mark at the same time. The NRSC has basically conceded defeat in this race.
3. Colorado (3): Rep. Mark Udall (D) is Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin. He’s facing off against former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R). All the late October polling shows Udall ahead by double digits. The NRSC finally pulled out of Colorado last week after doing a head fake.
4. New Hampshire (4): Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), who John Sununu (R) beat in 2002, is back for a rematch. She has led Sununu in almost every single poll taken in 2008, and without some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day to help Sununu out this time around, Shaheen looks to be in good shape. Though Sununu still has a significant cash on hand advantage, it hasn’t helped him.
5. Alaska (8): Conviction! 84-year-old Ted Stevens (R) was convicted on all 7 felony counts for not disclosing the gifts (over $250,000 worth) he got from oil company Veco Corp. last Monday. Anchorage mayor Mark Begich (D), who had been in a very close race with Stevens, has now opened up a decent lead in the polls, turning what seemed to be a nailbiter into a more comfortable lead. Something about voting for a convicted felon, I guess. Still, Rasmussen’s poll has it as a single-digit race, so don’t count out Alaska’s unique brand of crazy just yet.
6. North Carolina (5): The polls have shown a complete reversal of fortune starting in August. Kay Hagan (D) has been climbing steadily in the polls, while incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R) has been steadily falling. So what do you do if you’re Dole? Run an incredibly horrible attack ad calling your opponent, a Sunday school teacher, “godless”. That’s the sign of a desperate and losing campaign, as four different polls taken in late October now show Hagan at or above the 50% mark.
7. Oregon (6): Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) is challenging incumbent Gordon Smith (R), and has been steadily gaining ground in the polls over the past month. Every non-partisan poll taken in late October showed Merkley with some kind of lead. Still, none of them showed him at 50% or above, so this one’s not a done deal yet.
8. Minnesota (7): Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election. Comedian Al Franken got the DFL (basically the Democratic Party for Minnesota) nod. The recent polling now shows a pure tossup, with some polls showing Franken in teh lead, and some polls showing Coleman leading. But late-breaking news has a new lawsuit filed against Coleman alledging $75,000 being funneled to Coleman’s wife from a big GOP donor.
9. Georgia (9): Former state representative Jim Martin (D) is going up against Saxby Chambliss (R), who ousted Vietnam veteran and triple amputee Max Cleland (D) in 2002 by running a despicable ad blending the images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein into Cleland’s face, earning him the nickname “Shameless Saxby”. Starting with the economic collapse, poll after poll showed a completely different race, with Martin only behind by a statistically insignificant margin. However, they all still show Martin trailing. Now, Georgia has a rule that the winner must get over 50% of the vote, and the Libertarian candidate may take enough away that nobody can get 50%, in which case it will go to a runoff in December.
10. Kentucky (10): Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) is now a top target of the Democrats. Wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford (D) can afford to self-fund, and he’ll need to, with McConnell’s HUGE warchest of over $9 million. In just the last month, the polls suddenly showed Lunsford gaining significant ground on McConnell, but the latest two polls show McConnell gaining ground again, getting over the 50% mark.
11. Mississippi-B (11): Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year’s Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, was previously the Congressman from MS-01. Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) has kept it close in the polls until recently. As with Kentucky, the latest two polls now show Wicker above 50%.
Democratic safe seats
Arkansas (Mark Pryor)
Delaware (Joe Biden)
Illinois (Dick Durbin)
Iowa (Tom Harkin)
Louisiana (Mary Landrieu)
Massachusetts (John Kerry)
Michigan (Carl Levin)
Montana (Max Baucus)
New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg)
Rhode Island (Jack Reed)
South Dakota (Tim Johnson)
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)
Republican safe seats
Alabama (Jeff Sessions)
Idaho (Jim Risch)
Kansas (Pat Roberts)
Maine (Susan Collins)
Mississippi (Thad Cochran)
Nebraska (Mike Johanns)
Oklahoma (James Inhofe)
South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)
Tennessee (Lamar Alexander)
Texas (John Cornyn)
Wyoming (Michael Enzi)
Wyoming (John Barrasso)
So there you have it, my final rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand with less than 24 hours to go. We’ll see what happens tomorrow.
PPP (10/31-11/2, likely voters, no trendlines):
Jim Martin (D): 46
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48
Allen Buckley (L): 4
(MoE: ±2.8%)
SurveyUSA for WMAZ (10/30-11/1, likely voters, 10/11-12 in parens):
Jim Martin (D): 44 (43)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48 (46)
Allen Buckley (L): 5 (6)
(MoE: ±3.8%)
Two new polls of the Georgia senate race seem to confirm that, unless something weird happens, neither candidate is going to clear the 50% mark and we’ll be faced with a December runoff. The race has become remarkably stable in the last few weeks, with Martin never leading but almost always within a few points.
There’s a fierce race at the top of the ticket, too; PPP’s first poll of Georgia also finds Obama trailing only 50-48 (with Barr picking up a measly 2%), but with Obama leading 52-47 among early voters. SurveyUSA finds McCain up 52-45.
Nobody could remember it ever being this crowded:
http://www.tondeestavern.com/…
Morning wait was about 45 minutes; afternoon 1.5 to 2 hours.
More pictures through the link.
Rasmussen (10/30, likely voters, 10/22 in parens):
Jim Martin (D): 43 (45)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48 (47)
Allen Buckley (L): 7 (1)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
That’s a big surge for Buckley, who perhaps got a boost from his recent debate performances — or perhaps this is mostly just noise.
Research 2000 (for the Great Orange Satan) has a different picture (10/28-30, likely voters, 10/14-15 in parens):
Jim Martin (D): 46 (45)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 47 (47)
Allen Buckley (L): 5 (5)
(MoE: ±4%)
Among those who have already voted (12% of the sample), Martin leads by 56-39. The good news for Martin is that he’s running ahead of Obama in the early vote — albeit just slightly (Obama leads McCain 55-40 among these voters, and trails McCain 47-44 overall). For Martin to have a shot at coming ahead of Chambliss on November 4th (or even taking 50% plus one), he’d need to run ahead of Obama here — and earlier polls from SurveyUSA were suggesting the opposite in the early vote.
A small chance exists that Martin could come out on top without a runoff on Tuesday, but I wouldn’t place my money on it.
UPDATE: A new CNN/Time poll has Chambliss leading Martin by 53-44 among likely voters (his best margin in quite some time), but only by 48-47 among registered voters. The problem with this poll? It didn’t include Buckley.
Mason-Dixon (10/22-23, likely voters, no trendlines):
Jim Martin (D): 39
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 45
Allen Buckley: 5
Undecided: 11
(MoE: 4%)
Sneaky, sneaky. NBC commissioned this poll from Mason-Dixon and announced the results on Meet the Press – but they apparently haven’t really pushed it out online (hence the link to Pollster above). This is the first poll in some time showing daylight between the two candidates, and it also has a relatively high number of undecideds. The good news here is that Chambliss is still under 50 and if he doesn’t get too lucky with the undecideds, we’ll be headed to a runoff.
Insider Advantage (10/27, likely voters, 10/23 in parens):
Jim Martin (D): 44 (42)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 46 (44)
Other: 2 (2)
(MoE: ±3.8%)
Say what you will about this race, it’s consistent. While nobody has shown an actual lead for Jim Martin, almost every poll in the last few weeks has shown him 2 points back, or thereabouts.
With such a close race, and with Libertarian Allen Buckley consistently gobbling up a few points, it’s starting to look likelier and likelier that Chambliss will fall slightly shy of the 50% mark. With Lunsford a few points short and Musgrove starting to dwindle, it’s looking like the question of whether or not we break 60 seats may well turn on a December runoff election in Georgia.