Tag: GA-Sen

A whopping eight months since my last Senate roundup, I figured it was high time to survey the landscape again. Overall, things have gotten significantly better for the Republicans in the last year, though not nearly as overwhelmingly so as the drama-prone national media might have you believe.

A continued Democratic majority in the Senate is all but assured after November (and is still quite likely in the House as well). The probable range, IMO, is a Democratic caucus in the 112th Senate of between 54 seats at the low end and 58 seats at the high end.

Read a race-by-race analysis (with pretty maps) below the fold…

This is the playing field in 2010: Democratic open seats in North Dakota, Connecticut, and Delaware; Republican open seats in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Kentucky, New Hampshire, and Kansas. And here is my (early) results projection:

I am fairly certain of Republican pickups in North Dakota, Arkansas, and Nevada at this time, while the true tossup races for now are in Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, Delaware, and New Hampshire. The Democrats remain very slight favorites to hold Illinois and Pennsylvania, and the Republicans retain edges in Florida, Kentucky, and North Carolina.

As always, seats are ranked by likelihood of flipping:

1. North Dakota (open) – Byron Dorgan (D) retiring after 3 terms

Outlook: Very Likely Republican pickup

Dorgan’s retirement is indeed a huge blow to the Democrats, though perhaps canceled out by Dodd’s bowing out in Connecticut. Gov. John Hoeven (R) is in and will almost certainly be the junior Senator from North Dakota.

2. Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln (D) seeking third term

Outlook: Likely Republican pickup

Lincoln’s numbers are getting uglier against all opponents (the best she does is an eight-point deficit) and show no signs of recovering. Barring an eleventh-hour miracle, her Senate career is over, it seems.

3. Nevada – Harry Reid (D) seeking fifth term

Outlook: Leans Republican pickup

Reid has such a fundraising advantage and some time left to up his approval ratings, but few longtime incumbents recover from these dismal numbers. Many Democrats are probably quietly hoping that Reid “pulls a Dodd” in the next few months.

4. Colorado – Michael Bennet (D) seeking full term

Outlook: Tossup

Bennet faces a tough challenge in the Democratic primary from former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, and neither candidate seems secure against ex-Lt. Gov. Jane Norton or any of the other Republican prospects. The Democrats definitely have a good chance to hold this seat, with neither candidate carrying much prior baggage, but I sense that this race will go however the national climate goes, and at this moment, that means it will go to the GOP.

5. Delaware (open) – Ted Kaufman (D) retiring after partial term

Outlook: Tossup

I know that most polls have shown longtime Rep. Mike Castle (R) leading state Attorney General Beau Biden (D), but I for one am fairly convinced this race will tighten and the trends go Biden’s way once he declares and the state’s Democrats start “coming home.” Interestingly, Castle will be 71 years old on election day, to Biden’s 41, so there will likely be a noticeable contrast in tone and style between these two highly familiar candidates.

6. Missouri (open) – Kit Bond (R) retiring after four terms

Outlook: Tossup

Polls here have been close but consistent, with Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) barely ahead of Rep. Roy Blunt (R), always within the margin of error. Still, considering the GOP-friendly trends elsewhere during the last several months, this seems a promising sign for the Show Me State Democrats. For now, this is the Dems’ best opportunity for a pickup.

6. Ohio (open) – George Voinovich (R) retiring after two terms

Outlook: Tossup / Leans Republican hold

Even with nationwide Republican advances of late, former Rep. Rob Portman (R) has never built a convincing lead against either Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) or Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D). Fisher is favored to win the primary, and at the point I expect the race to become a tossup. If the election were today, Portman would win.

7. New Hampshire (open) – Judd Gregg (R) retiring after three terms

Outlook: Tossup / Leans Republican hold

Former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) has a slight lead over Rep. Paul Hodes (D) — grain-of-salt-worthy pollster ARG has her ahead 43-36, hardly a game-ending advantage. Like Ohio, Hodes should close the gap over the spring and summer, and if he doesn’t, we should be worried.

8. Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter (D) seeking sixth term

Outlook: Leans Democratic hold

Specter is in for a close fight (if he makes it to the general election) against former Rep. Pat Toomey (R), the hardline conservative who nearly unseated him in the GOP primary back in 2004. In the meantime, Rep. Joe Sestak is giving Specter reason to watch his left flank. But Specter has been careful to compile a fairly progressive record since switching parties last spring, and my own prediction is that this gives him a clear edge for the nomination. At that point, disaffected Democrats and moderate-minded Independents will gradually line up behind the incumbent in big enough numbers to carry him to victory over Toomey, especially if the winds shift back to the Dems over the summer.

9. Illinois (open) – Roland Burris (D) retiring after partial term

Outlook: Leans Democratic hold

The polls have been unclear about who has the advantage in a race between Republican Rep. Mark Kirk and Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, while (due to name recognition) Kirk polls well ahead of lesser-known Dems David Hoffman and Cheryle Jackson. Considering the state’s recent history, it’s hard to imagine Kirk winning on any but an exceptionally fortunate night for the GOP.

10. Florida (open) – George LeMieux (R) retiring after partial term

Outlook: Leans Republican hold

Gov. Charlie Crist has long been the favorite for this seat in a general election, as his cross-partisan popularity remains high, but his biggest problem will be winning the GOP primary against conservative former state House Speaker Marco Rubio. If Rubio beats Crist, as many now expect (though his momentum could always stall), expect a competitive and expensive race between Rubio and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D).

11. North Carolina – Richard Burr (R) seeking second term

Outlook: Leans Republican hold

I’ve been surprised by the sporadic polling in this race. Burr faces a reputable challenger in Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D), even if this is a Southern state in a GOP-leaning election cycle. Burr is far from universally popular or even universally recognized, but for now the DSCC clearly has to prioritize defense.

12. Kentucky (open) – Jim Bunning (R) retiring after 2 terms

Outlook: Leans Republican hold

The Democratic primary between Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo and state Attorney General Jack Conway has been nasty, while “small government conservative” Rand Paul has by several accounts taken the upper hand in the GOP primary against Secretary of State Trey Grayson, the establishment choice. Considering Kentucky’s traditional balance of social conservatism with economic liberalism, Paul would seem an unorthodox general election choice, but polls show he would do well against the Democrats. Definitely a primary to watch, even if either Republican is clearly favored in November.

Just below competitive:

– California for the Democrats (Boxer clearly ahead of Carly Fiorina, but not quite out of the woods)

– Gillibrand (New York B) for the Democrats (against anyone but Rep. Peter King, who might keep the race competitive, Gillibrand should win easily, assuming she wins the primary)

– Louisiana for the Republicans (Vitter leads Rep. Charlie Melancon, but his personal issues make it hard for me to rate him as “safe”)

The Democrats should be fine in Connecticut (Blumenthal trouncing Simmons/McMahon/Schiff), as should the Republicans in Kansas (either Tiahrt or Moran). Meanwhile, Republican incumbents seem solid (in the general election, at least) in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Utah. Democratic incumbents should win without trouble in Hawaii, Indiana, Maryland, New York (Schumer), Oregon, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.

It’s midnight madness here at SSP, and all old polls must go before they get too musty-odored.

Research 2000 for the Great Orange Satan (4/27-29, likely voters):

Roy Barnes (D): 44

John Oxendine (R): 46

Roy Barnes (D): 45

Karen Handel (R): 39

Thurbert Baker (D): 42

John Oxendine (R): 47

Thurbert Baker (D): 42

Karen Handel (R): 40

David Poythress (D): 43

John Oxendine (R): 47

David Poythress (D): 43

Karen Handel (R): 39

(MoE: ±4%)

Daily Kos took a look at the Georgia gubernatorial race late last week, and found the Democratic field in competitive shape against Republicans John Oxendine (the state Insurance Comm’r) and Karen Handel (Georgia’s SoS). Here’s the wrinkle, though: R2K pegged the African-American vote at 28% of the electorate, which is awfully close to the 30% mark that black voters hit in last year’s presidential election, according to CNN’s exit poll.

The Democratic nominee will have to wage a rigorous campaign in order to keep many of these voters from taking an electoral hiatus, lest they suffer the same fate of the uninspired campaign of Democrat Mark Taylor in the 2006 gubernatorial race, when African-American voters made up just 16% of the electorate. Perhaps the nomination of Attorney General Thurbert Baker (himself an African-American) might help rev up the base vote, or perhaps not — after all, a recent Strategic Vision poll suggested that ex-Gov. Roy Barnes would handily beat Baker for the nomination if he decided to run.

R2K also took a quick look at the Senate race:

Jim Marshall (D): 40

Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 48

Roy Barnes (D): 43

Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 47

Despite possessing a generally more congenial attitude than Georgia’s Senior Senator, wingnut punk Saxby Chambliss, Isakson’s favorability score is not exactly impressive: 47-41. That’s a markedly weaker score than the 55-37 rating Isakson earned in Strategic Vision’s polling earlier this month. But the question must be begged: with most of the state’s top Democratic talent gravitating toward the open Governor’s race, who wants to take on Isakson? Barnes has only expressed interest in a gubernatorial comebacker, and Marshall seems like a pretty long longshot to jump into this type of race. This could be an ideal situation for the recruitment of a well-to-do self-funding candidate to help shoulder the party’s ticket, if Georgia Democrats could manage to find such a candidate.

UPDATE: Lots of discussion underway in fatcathobbes’s diary.

I had always assumed Johnny Isakson (R-GA) would have an easy time being re-elected to his senate seat in 2010, but according to this poll, he may be vulnerable. Here is the link. http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

The poll shows him with a lead of 47-43 against former governor Roy Barnes, and a lead of 48-40 against Rep. Jim Marshall. Hopefully a top tier candidate can be persuaded to run against him, and we won’t have a replay of the 2008 senate election, where we failed to nominate a top tier candidate and then realized Chambliss was vulnerable.

Last week, Charlie Cook gave us the following bit of gossip:

A fellow who oversees lobbying in all 50 states for a major corporation recently told me about a certain Republican U.S. senator up for re-election in 2010, someone generally regarded as fairly conservative who might face a serious challenge from a very conservative fellow Republican. The incumbent has not been tainted by scandal, has never embarrassed himself by making a major mistake, is highly regarded in Washington, and is considered a very effective senator.

Blake Aued of the Athens Banner-Herald’s blog speculates that Cook may have caught wind of a brewing battle between GOP Rep. Paul Broun and Sen. Johnny Isakson:

Team Broun denies that their man is looking to move up. But Broun recently hired a new chief of staff and communications director – giving him a three-person press team, unusually large for a back-bench congressman – and has ambitions to become a national figure. And one usually reliable source told me that Broun has already informed Isakson he’s coming after him in 2010.

This sounds like it could be pretty plausible — Broun never endeared himself to the Georgia GOP establishment, and had to endure a primary challenge in 2008, so he may be just the kind of guy who’d be inclined to move on up in a fratricidal primary. A notoriously controversial dude, Broun may just be nutty enough to actually do this.

You may recall that right before the general election in November, I put together benchmarks that selected statewide candidates would need to hit, on a county-by-county basis, in order to get over 50% in closely-fought states. I wanted to go back and see how well this measure worked; Georgia seemed like an apt place to start, not just because it was very close at both the presidential and senatorial levels, but also because a bit of troubleshooting is in order to see what happened with the steep dropoff in the senate runoff. Let’s start with the original table, which contains the 2008 benchmarks (and the 2004 Kerry/Bush numbers, on which they were based:

County	% of 2004 statewide vote	What we need to break 50% statewide	2004 Pres.
Statewide	100.0	50/49	41/58
Fulton	10.2	68/31	59/40
Cobb	8.5	46/53	37/62
DeKalb	8.4	82/18	73/27
Gwinnett	7.4	42/57	33/66
Chatham	2.8	59/41	50/50
Clayton	2.4	79/20	70/29
Cherokee	2.2	29/70	20/79
Richmond	2.1	66/34	57/43
Henry	1.9	42/58	33/67
Muscogee	1.9	60/39	51/48
Bibb	1.7	60/40	51/49
Forsyth	1.7	25/74	16/83
Fayette	1.6	37/62	28/71
Hall	1.5	30/69	21/78
Columbia	1.4	33/66	24/75
Houston	1.4	42/57	33/66
Coweta	1.3	34/65	25/74
Douglas	1.3	47/52	38/61
Paulding	1.2	32/67	23/76
Clarke	1.1	67/31	58/40
Carroll	1.1	38/61	29/70
Dougherty	1.0	68/32	59/41

Now let’s take a look at the 2008 numbers, including both the senate general election and runoff. (I’ve also included the white percentage of each county, as a means of seeing if a higher non-white electorate meant a higher drop-off in the runoff. But, as an indication of how polarized Georgia is, notice how well the white percentage in each county correlates with the Republican share of the vote in that county.)

County	% of 2008 general statewide vote	2008 Pres.	2008 Senate General	% of 2008 runoff statewide vote	2008 Senate Runoff	2007 white %
Statewide	100.0	47/52	47/50	100.0	43/57	62.0
Fulton	10.3	67/32	63/33	10.4	60/40	48.5
Cobb	8.0	48/54	42/53	8.6	36/64	63.4
DeKalb	8.2	79/20	76/21	8.7	74/26	33.9
Gwinnett	7.4	44/54	43/53	7.8	36/64	61.0
Chatham	2.8	57/42	55/42	2.7	52/48	54.9
Clayton	2.5	83/17	81/17	2.4	80/20	24.8
Cherokee	2.4	24/75	24/71	2.4	18/82	83.9
Richmond	2.0	66/34	64/34	1.9	59/41	43.4
Henry	2.2	46/53	46/51	2.2	42/58	61.5
Muscogee	1.9	60/40	60/38	1.6	57/43	47.6
Bibb	1.7	59/41	57/42	1.7	53/47	46.2
Forsyth	1.9	20/78	20/75	2.0	15/85	80.4
Fayette	1.5	34/65	34/62	1.8	31/69	73.5
Hall	1.5	24/75	26/68	1.6	20/80	86.9
Columbia	1.4	28/71	28/69	1.4	24/76	78.8
Houston	1.4	40/60	40/57	1.4	35/65	66.3
Coweta	1.4	29/70	30/66	1.4	25/75	77.4
Douglas	1.4	51/49	50/46	1.4	44/56	62.2
Paulding	1.4	30/69	32/64	1.3	26/74	81.8
Clarke	1.2	65/34	61/35	1.1	62/38	67.5
Carroll	1.1	33/66	35/60	1.1	30/70	n/a
Dougherty	1.0	67/32	64/34	1.0	64/36	33.3

Let’s start with how Obama and Martin (in the general) fared against the benchmarks that I set for them. On the whole, their actual percentages seemed to lag the benchmarks by about 2-3%, which is apt, as they both finished around 47%, 3% shy of a majority. There were only a few counties where they exceeded their benchmarks, and these are also the counties that are undergoing the most demographic change (in a way that’s favorable to the Democrats). Cobb and Gwinnett Counties are two of the four large counties in the Atlanta metro area, and are traditionally very conservative (they were Newt Gingrich’s turf back when he was in the House). But with Obama getting up to 48% in Cobb County and 44% in Gwinnett, they’re approaching swing county territory. (Cobb County is seeing growth in middle-class African-Americans and Gwinnett County is becoming an entry point for many Latino and Asian immigrants.)

More analysis over the flip…

Slightly further from the core of Atlanta are Clayton, Henry, and Douglas Counties, and these counties are being transformed even more rapidly by a rapid influx of African-American exurbanites. Clayton County’s white percentage, 24.8% in 2007, is down from 34.9% in 2000. Douglas County’s white percentage is 62.2%, down from 75.9 in 2000, and Henry County’s white percentage is 61.5%, down all the way from 80.1% in 2000… and that is matched by the double-digit swings in their voting patterns since 2004, and the way they exceeded their benchmarks (in fact, by 7% in Douglas County).

This is balanced by the mostly white and right-wing exurban counties at the northern fringes of the Atlanta area (Cherokee, Forsyth, and Hall Counties). Here, Obama and Martin trailed their benchmarks by the largest margins (by 5 or 6%).

The whitest counties (Hall, Coweta, Paulding) were the only counties where Martin (in the general) actually outperformed Obama, further suggestive of the racial polarization of the vote. By contrast, Martin tended to underperform Obama the most in heavily African-American counties (down 3% in DeKalb, 4% in Fulton, 3% in Dougherty). Interestingly, Martin also way underperformed Obama (by 4%) in Clarke County, not heavily black but home of Athens and the Univ. of Georgia. To me, this suggests that the underperformance has less to do with Obama/Chambliss ticket-splitting than with undervotes (i.e. casual or sporadic voters, probably disproportionately young and/or black, voting for Obama and not voting downballot). There were nearly 180,000 undervotes statewide between the two races (3.93 million total in the presidential, vs. 3.75 million in the senate race).

Now let’s turn to the dropoff in Martin’s performance between the general and the runoff. My initial assumption (and that of many other observers) was that Martin suffered for a lack of African-American turnout in the runoff, without the draw of Obama at the top of the ticket. That’s probably still true, but it’s a little more complicated than that. I’d expect the heavily black counties (DeKalb and Clayton) to have formed a smaller percentage of the statewide vote in the runoff than in the general, but that didn’t happen; in fact, DeKalb County’s share of the vote went up a lot, from 8.2% in the general to 8.7% in the runoff. The percentages of the vote didn’t change much, either. Martin only gave up 2% in DeKalb and 1% in Clayton, while the lone counties where Martin actually performed better in the runoff than the general were Dougherty (mostly-black Albany, downstate) and, again, Clarke (Athens/UGA).

Instead, the big dropoffs seemed to happen in the in the suburbs and exurbs, where Martin’s runoff numbers tended to revert back to very close to the 2004 Kerry/Bush numbers. For instance, out in wingnut land, Martin slipped from 20% to 15% in Forsyth County, 24% to 18% in Cherokee County, and 26% to 20% in Hall County. More alarmingly, the same rate of slippage happened in the more favorable suburban counties, like Cobb County (42% to 36%), Gwinnett County (43% to 36%), and Douglas County (50% to 44%). Interestingly, the percentages of the statewide vote in these counties, as with DeKalb County, went up too (8.0% to 8.6% in Cobb and 7.4% to 7.8% in Gwinnett), suggesting that the reliable Republicans who haven’t white-flighted it out of these counties yet continued to vote reliably in the runoff, while participation by other voters in these counties fell off dramatically.

To me, these numbers suggest some miscalculation at the organizing level… perhaps a focus on turning out every possible vote in reliable Democratic constituencies (DeKalb, Clayton, and Clarke Counties), while allowing other counties to slip through the cracks that people still aren’t used to thinking of as potentially Democratic counties (Cobb, Gwinnett, Douglas), as apparently many young and/or black infrequent voters in these rapidly-changing counties didn’t make it to the polls in the runoff. Not that these missing votes really mattered much in the end — Martin needed to not just match his general election numbers in the runoff but beat them by another 3% — but it’s food for thought on where to go trolling for those last few votes to try and get over the top in Georgia.

Polls will soon be closing in Georgia, and we’ll be using this thread to follow the returns.

RESULTS: GA SoS | AJC | CNN

County Baselines

8:26PM: This looks pretty bleak.

9:05PM: CNN calls it for Chambliss.

Here were the results on election night last month, broken down by county. As you watch the early returns tonight, keep an eye on these numbers. If Martin is lagging behind his November results, he’s likely toast — barring some miraculously strong metro Atlanta turnout, I guess.

Given the polls, the idea of Jim Martin may be crazy. It may be crazier to report a post predicting it. But, according the the progressive blog Tondee’s Tavern, Martin’s folks are feeling good right now.

Just heard from a top Martin campaign aide that they are expecting a “close” victory for Jim.

The blogger did not give any specific reasons for such a prediction and it all just be for morale. Either way, I thought I would post it and let everyone decide for themselves.

Polls close at 7pm Eastern tonight in Georgia. We’ll be rolling with live blog coverage later.

So what do you got? The closest prediction earns you 15 minutes worth of bragging rights.

Public Policy Polling (11/29-30, likely voters, 11/22-23 in parens)

Jim Martin (D): 46 (46)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 53 (52)

Undecided: 1 (2)

(MoE: ±2.7%)

Tom Jensen says:

Chambliss is up 71-28 on Jim Martin with whites. For Martin to win the runoff with that performance, the electorate would have to be 34% African American. Given that it was only 30% for the general election with Barack Obama at the top of the ballot and that early voting was less than 23% black, that does not seem particularly likely.

Not looking good. The other survey, from Insider Advantage, isn’t looking much better (11/30, likely voters, 11/23 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 46 (47)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 50 (50)

Undecided: 4 (3)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Matt Towery of IA offers some succor:

The race could be a 10-point blowout for Chambliss, or under the right circumstances, a very tight contest. This is like trying to forecast snow in Georgia – almost impossible.

I’m not sanguine. Nine polls by five different pollsters have all given Chambliss the lead. Could they all be wrong, Alaska-style? Sure, but I wouldn’t count on it.