Tag: NH-Gov

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/1-3, likely voters, 7/13-15 in parentheses)

Paul Hodes (D): 39 (38)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 46 (39)

Undecided: 11 (23)

Paul Hodes (D): 46

Ovide Lamontagne (R): 36

Undecided: 13

Paul Hodes (D): 45

William Binnie (R): 35

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±4%)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 36

Ovide Lamontagne (R): 27

William Binnie (R): 4

Undecided: 33

(MoE: ±5%)

John Lynch (D): 59

Jack Kimball (R): 13

Undecided: 26

(MoE: ±4%)

The toplines in Research 2000’s new poll of the New Hampshire Senate race aren’t that noteworthy; they fall right in line with most other recent polls of the race, which have given Republican ex-AG Kelly Ayotte a 5 or 7 point lead over Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes. The trendlines aren’t very appealing, but they go back to July, and think about everything (mostly bad for the Dem brand) that’s happened in the last half a year; at any rate, Ayotte’s gain has only come out of the undecided column.

What’s very intersting about this poll is the GOP primary, about which we have precious little information so far. Ayotte has been running a startlingly substance-free campaign, leaving her to get squeezed both on the right by Ovide Lamontagne, favorite of national movement conservatives, and perhaps on the left (though it’s hard to tell, since Ayotte hasn’t given us any benchmarks) by businessman William Binnie, who seems to be operating in traditional New England moderate mode.

The only poll we’ve had about the primary prior to this one is a Kelly Ayotte internal from Tarrance from last month, where she led Lamontagne 43-11, with Binnie at 5 and Bender at 3. That poll seemed pretty optimistic to me from the outset, and now we have some confirmation from an independent pollster that Ayotte’s in a real fight here. With 33% still undecided, there’s still plenty of time for Lamontagne to torpedo Ayotte — especially if he can pick up national-level institutional backing, from the Club for Growth, the tea partiers, and their ilk. And considering that Lamontagne loses convincingly to Hodes in the general, I sure hope these groups are taking notice. (For what it’s worth, Ayotte is starting to go on the air, with her first radio spot, suggesting that she may be starting to notice that she can’t sleepwalk her way to the nomination.)

There are also numbers from the gubernatorial race, one of the few uncompetitive ones anywhere in the country. Centrist Democratic incumbent John Lynch has a 57% generic re-elect, and thumps GOP businessman Jack Kimball in a head-to-head. (Kimball may lose in the primary to social conservative activist Karen Testerman, but either way, this race doesn’t look like it’ll be on anyone’s radar come November.)

RaceTracker Wiki: NH-Gov

• MA-Sen: With last night’s Suffolk poll, there really can’t be any doubt any more that the Massachusetts Senate race qualifies as a “Toss Up,” so we’re changing our rating to reflect that. There’s still room for skepticism on whether Scott Brown can in fact pull it out, given not only the difficulty of pinning down a likely voter universe in a rapidly-fluctuating special election, but also the Democrats’ structural advantages on the ground in the Bay State. (The Democrats have the advantage of labor and local machines long-skilled at rousting out voters and getting them to the polls, while it’s questionable whether the Republicans have, given their long neglect of the state, any ground troops to deploy here, or even up-to-date, refined voter databases.) Nevertheless, given what can actually be quantified, right now the polls balance out to more or less a tie, and that’s how we have to treat the race.

The breaking news du jour is that Barack Obama has finally agreed to head up to Massachusetts and stump for Martha Coakley on Sunday. Also, the Coakley campaign is rolling out a second ad for the weekend, to go with their ad showcasing the Vicki Kennedy endorsement; they’re also running a populist-themed ad on Wall Street regulation (specifically, the rather narrow issue of the proposed bonus tax on banks). The ad deluge is being bolstered a League of Conservation Voters ad buy for $350K; on the third-party front, that’s being countered by a pro-Brown ad buy for $500K from Americans for Job Security.

• CA-Sen: Yesterday I was musing about whether ex-Rep. Tom Campbell’s entry into the GOP Senate primary hurt Carly Fiorina or Chuck DeVore more, and we already seem to have an answer. The Campbell camp is touting an internal poll showing them with a sizable lead over both Fiorina and DeVore in the primary: Campbell is at 31, with Fiorina at 15 and DeVore at 12. The few polls of the primary so far have shown Fiorina and DeVore deadlocked in the 20s, so maybe it’s safe to say that Campbell hurts them each equally.

• FL-Sen: Which of these is not like the other? There’s a new multi-candidate GOP fundraising PAC called the U.S. Senate Victory Committee, which benefits seven different Republicans: Kelly Ayotte, Roy Blunt, Jane Norton, Rob Portman, Rob Simmons, Pat Toomey… and Marco Rubio? Six establishment candidates, and one insurgent. Or is Rubio the new establishment?

• PPP (pdf): PPP looks all the way to 2012 as part of their wide-ranging Nevada survey, and finds that John Ensign may weather his whole giving-a-patronage-job-to-the-cuckolded-husband-of-his-mistress thing, if he runs again. Ensign trails Las Vegas mayor (but probable 2010 gubernatorial candidate) only Oscar Goodman 43-41, but leads Rep. Shelly Berkley 49-40 and SoS Ross Miller 47-36. Of course, Berkley and Miller aren’t that well-known yet and would presumably gain ground in an active 2012 race, but again, more food for thought on the idea that Republicans really don’t get the vapors over sex scandals after all, so long as they’re perpetrated by Republicans.

• MN-Gov: The St. Paul Pioneer Press is out with a poll of Minnesota voters (by a pollster I’ve never heard of, Decision Resources Ltd.). The poll seemed most focused on the question of whether there should be public funding of the new Vikings stadium, but it did throw in (almost as an afterthought) something we haven’t seen before: general election head-to-heads in the Governor’s race. The numbers are pretty encouraging for the Democrats: ex-Sen. Mark Dayton leads ex-Sen. Norm Coleman 41-31, and state Rep. Marty Seifert (who, assuming Coleman doesn’t get in, is the likeliest GOP nominee) 41-25. State House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher beats Coleman 33-31, and Pat Anderson (who dropped out of the race this week) 33-23. There weren’t any numbers for Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak, another strong contender for the Dem nod. And yes, if you’re wondering, this does take into account the potential spoiler role of Minnesota’s Independence Party; IP candidates account for 11 to 13 percent of the vote in each of these trial heats. (H/t alphaaqua.)

• NH-Gov: One other gubernatorial poll has good news for Democrats, and it even comes from Rasmussen. They find incumbent Gov. John Lynch in safe position with 58/38 approvals and, against his no-name opponents, leading social conservative activist Karen Testerman 53-30 and businessman Jack Kimball 51-32.

• OH-Gov: Who knew that John Kasich had the power to transcend the boundaries of space and time? In an effort to court the GOP’s restive base, Kasich said “I think I was in the Tea Party before there was a Tea Party.”

• WY-Gov: One more big-name Republican (by Wyoming’s small standards) is getting into the gubernatorial race, banking on the assumption that incumbent Dem Dave Freudenthal won’t jump through the legal hoops necessary to run for a third term. Auditor Rita Meyer is getting into the race, where potential GOP primary rivals include former US Attorney Matt Mead and state House speaker Colin Simpson.

• AL-05: Rep. Parker Griffith is showing his true colors. The party-switcher has been turning away requests for refunds of contributions that don’t meet the requirements buried in the fine print: he says he can’t refund donations for the 2008 cycle, only the 2010 cycle, because the 2008 contributions were spent long ago.

• AR-02: Rep. Vic Snyder is in pretty dire shape, if a new poll from SurveyUSA is to be believed: he trails Republican candidate and former US Attorney Tim Griffin by a 56-39 margin. You may want to take this poll with a grain of salt, as it was paid for by Firedoglake, who seem to have an axe to grind in the health care reform debate, and the Snyder numbers seem to be less the main point than engaging in strangely-right-wing-sounding message-testing. The good news is that, even after a variety of anti-HCR arguments have been offered (and Nate Silver does a fine job of picking apart the survey), Snyder doesn’t fare much worse (at 58-35); the bad news, though, is that the 56-39 topline question was asked before any of the litany of anti-HCR talking points, suggesting that, HCR or no, we have a major problem in Arkansas.

• AZ-03: Despite Jon Hulburd’s surprising cash haul, he may have bigger company in the Democratic primary to replace recently-retired Republican Rep. John Shadegg. Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon is the subject of speculation; he had briefly considered a 2008 run against Shadegg before ruling it out, saying his post-mayoral future would be in the private sector, but all eyes are on what he does now. (Gordon lives slightly outside the district’s boundaries.) On the GOP side, there’s no clear frontrunner at all. State Rep. Sam Crump has already said he’s running. Possible other candidates include state Treasurer Dean Martin (who would have to drop down from the gubernatorial bid he just launched this week), state Sens. Pamela Gorman and Jim Waring, Phoenix city councilor Peggy Neely, former ASU football star Andrew Walter, and, in a shocker, the co-founder of Taser International Inc., Tom Smith. Former state House speaker Jim Weiers has taken himself out of the running.

• NC-11: Businessman Jeff Miller has reversed course and will run against Democratic Blue Dog Rep. Heath Shuler in the 11th. Miller had been recruited to run, but decided against it; he’ll have to face a primary against Hendersonville mayor Greg Newman, who got in after Miller initially declined.

• OH-15: The Ohio GOP is still searching for an Auditor candidate after Mary Taylor decided to run for Lt. Governor instead of re-election. Former state Sen. Steve Stivers has been asked to run for Auditor, but made clear he’ll be staying in the race in the 15th (where he might actually have better odds, considering how close he came to Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy last time).

• Election results: A lot happened last night, most prominently Martha Coakley’s victory in the MA-Sen Democratic primary, with 47% of the vote to Michael Capuano’s 28, Alan Khazei’s 13, and Stephen Paglicua’s 12. Coakley is poised to become the Bay State’s first female Senator; the big question for the Jan. 19 general is whether Republican state Sen. Scott Brown (who won the GOP nod 88-12 over Jack E. Robinson) can break 40%. In Kentucky, the Dems’ run of pickups in the state Senate came to a screeching halt, as Jodie Haydon lost to GOP state Rep. Jimmy Higdon 56-44 in a previously GOP-held open seat in SD-14, so the Senate’s composition stays at 20 (plus 1 GOP-leaning indie) to 17 in favor of the GOP. The GOP also picked up a previously Dem-held seat in the state House, HD-96. Republicans also retained SD-4 in Arkansas‘s dark-red northwest. In Birmingham, Alabama’s mayoral race advances to a runoff between attorney (and 2007 loser) Patrick Cooper and Jefferson County Commissioner William Bell. And in Los Angeles, Assemblyman Paul Krekorian won a vacant City Council seat despite being widely outspent by Christine Essel — which sets up an Assembly special election and temporarily leaves Dems there shy one seat.

• AR-Sen: With some encouragement from labor and the netroots, it looks like Lt. Gov. Bill Halter may actually be moving forward on plans to mount a Democratic primary challenge to Blanche Lincoln from the left. He’s in Washington DC meeting with labor officials and blogosphere leaders.

• FL-Sen: In more evidence of Charlie Crist’s willingness to take money from anyone, a mailer from a big fundraiser hosted for Crist by Broward County developer Ron Bergeron headlined one particular large contributor: Joseph Cobo, the Broward County Health Commissioner who’s currently under criminal investigation for corruption. Cobo was quickly removed from the host committee and Crist’s camp said the mailer was a “draft” mistakenly sent.

• OH-Sen: David Plouffe, one of the architects of Barack Obama’s campaign, has weighed into the Democratic Senate primary (despite not having any obvious connections to Ohio). Plouffe endorsed Lee Fisher over Jennifer Brunner in a fundraising e-mail, perhaps suggesting subtle White House moves to consolidate things behind Fisher and start gearing up for the general.

• AK-Gov: It was clear that newly-appointed Gov. Sean Parnell was going to face a primary fight with a member of the state’s political establishment, but the surprise today seems to be which one. Former state House speaker Ralph Samuels announced he’s running for Governor today. In summer, another former speaker, John Harris, had said he was going to run against Parnell, but today’s ADN article makes no mention of Harris; it does list Bill Walker and Gerald Heikes as other GOP candidates. The flashpoint in the Parnell/Samuels race appears to be oil industry taxes imposed by that known tax-and-spend liberal, Sarah Palin; Parnell supports continuation of them while Samuels wants an end.

• IL-Gov, IL-Sen: In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, incumbent Pat Quinn picked up some Chicago-area endorsements, from Rep. Danny Davis and an array of aldermen; he also recently got the Sierra Club’s nod. His opponent, Comptroller Dan Hynes, however, got an endorsement from a major union, the Illinois Federation of Teachers, and a victory of sorts by getting the AFL-CIO to not endorse. The AFL-CIO did, however, just endorse Alexi Giannoulias in the Senate race.

• NH-Gov: As expected, social conservative activist Karen Testerman launched her bid for Governor in New Hampshire. She brings some name recognition to the race based on her radio show and a long track record of religious right rabble-rousing, but isn’t expected to pose much of a challenge for Democratic incumbent John Lynch as he seeks a barely-precedented fourth term.

• FL-02: Faced with the realization that state Sen. Al Lawson is staying in the Democratic primary race no matter what, Rep. Allen Boyd is taking advantage of his big cash edge to run a TV spot already. Despite his vote against health care reform last month, he’s running an ad that’s basically pro-HCR (although with the GOP-sounding hedges thrown in there).

• IL-14: It didn’t take long for the last remaining minor player to bail out of the GOP field in the 14th, the third in a week. Jeff Danklefsen will apparently be taking his name of the ballot, and endorsing state sen. Randy Hultgren. Hultgren’s camp is also keeping an eye on Mark Vargas, who dropped out but endorsed Ethan Hastert; they want to make sure Vargas actually pulls his name off the ballot instead of remaining on there and splitting the anti-Hastert vote.

• KS-02: Because even when you vote the conservative position 95% of the time, that’s just not conservative enough… freshman Republican Rep. Lynn Jenkins, already facing a credible Democratic challenge in the form of state Sen. Laura Kelly, may now face a primary challenge from state Sen. Dennis Pyle, who filed candidacy papers last week. (Former state Treasurer Jenkins was from the “moderate” wing of the party in Kansas, and beat religious right ex-Rep. Jim Ryun in the 2008 primary.)

• MD-01: Something seems amiss at the Andy Harris camp, as he prepares for a rematch against Dem freshman Rep. Frank Kratovil; his campaign manager, Mike Spellings hit the road. Other insiders say it was just a personality clash.

• NJ-02: I don’t know if anyone was counting on Democratic state Sen. Jeff Van Drew making his long-awaited run against Rep. Frank LoBiondo next year, but the question was asked. Van Drew says “the likelihood is not there,” but didn’t completely rule it out.

• PA-07: Here’s what the GOP establishment had been hoping to avoid: the possibility of a contested primary in the open 7th, where the field was painstakingly cleared for former US Attorney Pat Meehan. Dawn Stensland, the former news anchor for the Philly Fox affiliate, says she’s considering a run for the Republican nomination. Unfortunately for her, she comes with her own built-in attention-grabbing scandal relating to her husband, another local news anchor, having an affair with yet another competing local news anchor.

• MA-Sen: Lake Research, the hired gun of Martha Coakley, has some pretty unsurprising results for the Democratic Senate primary in Massachusetts. Coakley, the state AG, leads Rep. Michael Capuano by 47-12. Despite having quite a bit of money in the bank, Stephen Pagliuca and Alan Khazei both look like non-factors at this point, at just 4 and 1%, respectively.
• MO-Sen: Missouri continues to look like the brightest spot for Democratic pick-up hopes in the Senate next year. Momentum Analysis, another Dem pollster, finds Robin Carnahan ahead of Roy Blunt by 48-45.
• WI-Sen: The wonks over at the University of Wisconsin decided to test the improbable match-up of ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson vs. Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold. Thompson leads Feingold by 43-39, but, as Josh Goodman notes, his recent endorsement of health care reform sure doesn’t seem like the actions of a guy jonesing for another dip in the partisan electoral hot tub.
• NH-Gov: UNH, home of the incredible gyrating sample, decided to test ex-Gov. John H. “Big Papa” Sununu against Democratic Gov. John Lynch. Lynch wins 50-37.
• NYC-Mayor: Is something happening here? SurveyUSA’s first post-primary poll of the NYC Mayoral election is showing a surprisingly close race: 51-43 for Michael Bloomberg. Sadly, I doubt that Thompson will be aggressive enough in the closing weeks to actually threaten the Royal Bloomsbury.
• WA-Init: SUSA has dipped its thermometer into the latest civil rights battle in Washington. R-71, the referendum on expanded domestic partnership (i.e. marriage in all but name), has a slim 45-42 edge. (Note: this is the complete opposite of Maine in terms of ballot wording; here, “yes” is a vote in favor of keeping domestic partnership.)

• CO-Sen: Former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff officially kicked off his primary challenge to Michael Bennet yesterday, with appearances in Pueblo, Colorado Springs, and Denver. Romanoff, however, wasted no time in demonstrating that he won’t be running to Bennet’s left, saying that he’s opposed to the card-check portion of EFCA. If he isn’t going to run to Bennet’s left, that leads to the question of: what other kind of an angle can he work, other than just “it’s my turn?”

• IL-Sen: Here’s an interesting development in the Illinois Senate race: EMILY’s List has weighed in, endorsing (surprise) Cheryle Jackson. EMILY’s List isn’t always a magic bullet in these type situations (see Tinker, Nikki), but it does expose Jackson to a nationwide base of donors. Politico does observe something odd, though: EMILY’s List hasn’t endorsed a female Senate candidate who seems to have at least somewhat better odds of making it out of her primary… Jennifer Brunner.

• NY-Sen-B (pdf): Some leftovers from yesterday’s Marist poll of NY-Gov: Kirsten Gillibrand is still having some growing pains, with an approval of 26% excellent or good, 38% fair, and 9% poor (with 27% not sure) and losing a head-to-head against ex-Gov. George Pataki, 48-44 (Pataki has been completely silent on the issue, but you’ve gotta wonder if the consistent numbers are getting him more interested). For yucks and giggles, they also matched Gillibrand up against Eliot Spitzer in a Dem primary, which she won 57-29. (Spitzer also loses a primary to David Paterson 60-31, and receives a general “no” on the issue of running again, 27/69.)

• IL-Gov: State GOP chair Andy McKenna, who briefly provoked a Mark Kirk temper tantrum when he said he’d run in the Illinois senate primary, has decided he still really wants to run for office, and instead has headed over to the Governor’s race, where there was no top-tier candidate or even clear frontrunner. This seemed to spook one of the candidates, suburban state Sen. Matt Murphy, who bailed out of the race and signed on as McKenna’s running mate. While McKenna has the fundraising connections and can self-fund as well, McKenna has never won a race (he finished 4th in the GOP Senate primary in 2004, meaning he lost not only to Jack Ryan but also Jim Oberweis), and he’ll still have to face DuPage County Board Chair Bob Schillerstrom (who has at least 900,000 constituents) as well as a gaggle of other state Senators. (H/t GOPVOTER.)

• MI-Gov: SoS Terri Lynn Land has signed onto Oakland Co. Sheriff Michael Bouchard’s ticket as his running mate. Land, you’ll recall, was widely expected to run for Governor but surprised everyone by endorsing Bouchard instead. (There was a brief rumor that she’d run in MI-03 after a Vern Ehlers retirement, but that doesn’t seem to be happening.)

• NH-Gov: Rasmussen throws in gubernatorial numbers as part of its sample from Sep. 14 that found Kelly Ayotte up on Paul Hodes by 8 in the Senate race. The results help cast a little more doubt on the composition of that particular sample, as the state’s widely popular Democratic Governor, John Lynch, leads former Senator John Sununu (who I’ve never seen mentioned in connection with that race) by only 48-43. Lynch beats the only announced candidate, businessman Jack Kimball, 52-31, and vaguely interested state Senator Chuck Morse 51-29.

• NJ-Gov: PPP tried out some alternate scenarios in New Jersey involving replacement Democrats for Jon Corzine (although Corzine hasn’t made any moves to get out, and it’s unclear why he would at this point, with his numbers improving somewhat). The bottom line is, it wouldn’t help anyway; Rep. Frank Pallone loses big-time to Chris Christie 43-23 (with Chris Daggett at 15). Newark mayor Corey Booker doesn’t fare much better, even though he has very high approval ratings: he loses 41-33-13.

• OR-Gov: We’ll definitely have a contested primary on the Democratic side, despite the entry of heavyweight ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber. Former SoS Bill Bradbury is staying in the race, preparing to announce today, and yesterday releasing a video endorsement from his most prominent backer, former Gov. Barbara Roberts, who preceded Kitzhaber in office. Meanwhile, Kitzhaber released a literal shitload of endorsements yesterday, with many of the state’s key Democrats (AG John Kroger, Treasurer Ben Westlund, Superintendent of Education Susan Castillo, Multnomah County Chair Ted Wheeler, ex-Portland mayor Vera Katz, ex-Rep. Darlene Hooley) and some names who’d been bandied about as possible candidates (state Sen. Mark Hass, Portland city counilor Randy Leonard) on board — not a lot of oxygen left for Bradbury, or for Rep. Peter DeFazio, if he still wants to get in.

• PA-Gov: Scranton mayor Chris Doherty is almost certain to run for the Democratic nod for Governor, insiders are saying. He’s staffing up (including some heavy hitters, including media pro Tad Devine) and polling.

• TX-Gov: Rasmussen’s new poll of the Texas governor primary on the Republican side has a big surprise: it’s the first poll in ages (since May) to give a lead to Kay Bailey Hutchison. KBH leads incumbent Rick Perry 40-38, with somebody named Debra Medina, who’s from the Ron Paul wing of the party, pulling in 3% of the vote… apparently pulling in enough of Perry’s base of teabag/secession nuts to flip the race to KBH. Rasmussen’s May poll had Perry up 42-38.

• CA-42: Republican Rep. Gary Miller has drawn a wealthy primary challenger, Lee McGroarty, an executive with an investment firm. Ethical clouds related to real estate deals have followed Miller, but he’s probably more vulnerable to an anti-insider primary challenge than a Democrat in this R+10 Orange County district.

• NY-23: After Sam Brownback and Pat Roberts dropped their barely-explicable holds on the confirmation of Rep. John McHugh for Secretary of the Army, the New York Republican was confirmed last night. The three candidates — Democrat Bill Owens, Republican Dede Scozzafava, and Conservative Doug Hoffman — now are waiting to see when the special election is scheduled. State law requires David Paterson to schedule the election between 30 and 40 days from his announcement of the date, so in order to schedule the election on the regular election day of Nov. 3 (like everyone expects will happen), he’ll need to delay the announcement for at least another week.

• Campaign Finance: Last month, a federal judge ruled that Connecticut’s relatively new campaign matching fund system violated the First Amendment, saying it impermissibly put unfair burdens on “hopeless” minor party candidates that it did not also place on equally hopeless major party candidates running in uncompetitive districts. (The decision was in part based on the Supreme Court case that struck down the federal Millionaire’s Amendment last year.) AG Dick Blumenthal is appealing to the Second Circuit. Meanwhile, some folks in Arizona are concerned that this ruling might implicate their own public financing system. (D)

Crossposted at Daily Kos

It’s been a while since I wrote one of these, and foolishly, I penned this diary yesterday evening with little sense that something as dramatic as a Supreme Court retirement was mere hours on the horizon…alas!

Irrespective of the indisputably riveting SCOTUS chatter, let’s start with the gov contests of 2009 before moving to 2010. Read about all 36 races below the fold…

First, a map of the entire gubernatorial state of play between 2009 and 2010:

As you may have guessed, light-colored states are open seats (10 Democratic, 7 Republican). The states with circular holes (Minnesota, Florida, and Wyoming) are states where it isn’t clear yet whether or not the incumbent will seek another term.

2009

New Jersey – Jon Corzine (D) seeking 2nd term

Outlook: Tossup

Polls still show Corzine losing to GOP frontrunner Chris Christie, a former U.S. Attorney; the latest poll, from Monmouth University, shows Christie leading 39-35, with Corzine’s job approval at 40% to 49% disapproval. While New Jersey politicians typically poll badly, it’s foolish to discount these numbers…Corzine is in serious trouble. If there is a silver lining, it is that as public confidence in the economy and the direction of the country has ticked up, Corzine’s numbers have inched closer to parity with Christie. I’ve heard the occasional rumor that the Governor will “pull a Torricelli” and bow out at the 11th hour in favor of someone less controversial. Three problems with that: the replacement candidate won’t have Corzine’s money, Garden State voters may (rightfully) grow tired of those sorts of antics, and who would the replacement be, anyway? (I don’t think popular former Gov. Dick Codey fancies a comeback.) For better or worse, Corzine may have to correct this ship himself.

Virginia (OPEN) – Tim Kaine (D) term-limited

Outlook: Tossup

As in 2005, a well-liked Democratic Governor is term-limited, the Republicans have united around the Attorney General as their nominee, and said Attorney General has a lead in most polls on the Democratic possibilities. Hopefully, as in 2005, dynamics will change after the June 9 Democratic primary. On the Dem side, Terry McAuliffe has seemingly catapulted into the lead, if the latest SurveyUSA poll is to be believed, with 38% to 22% each for State Del. Brian Moran and State Sen. Creigh Deeds. Each of the candidates narrowly loses to Attorney General Bob McDonnell, for now, but as I said, Kaine was well behind Jerry Kilgore all through summer 2005 as well. One odd item of trivia: the sitting President’s party has lost every Virginia gubernatorial election since Watergate. Such history is always subject to change (“bellwether Missouri” says hi), but it’s an amusing stat nonetheless.

And on the docket for 2010

Alabama (OPEN) – Bob Riley (R) term-limited

Outlook: Leans Republican

To date, the sole official GOP candidate is real estate developer Tim James, son of 1994-1998 GOP Gov. Fob James, though a run seems quite likely by the legendary (and not in a good way) Roy Moore, former Chief Justice of the state’s Supreme Court. The major Democratic candidates, Rep. Artur Davis and State Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, seem a heck of a lot more impressive, but given the Yellowhammer State’s continued leanings (even a boost in black participation only pushed Obama to 39% here), the Republicans must warrant an early if narrow edge.

Alaska – Sarah Palin (R) seeking 2nd term

Outlook: Safe Republican

Congratulations to one Bob Poe and one Rob Rosenfeld, two Democrats who I assume are as unfamiliar to most Alaska voters as they are to the average political junkie, for choosing to run against Gov. Thanks But No Thanks. The drama surrounding Palin’s career — and there is plenty — is unfortunately unrelated to her prospects for reelection at the moment.

Arizona – Jan Brewer (R) seeking full term

Outlook: Tossup / Tilts Republican

According to Politics1, Brewer is already drawing several primary opponents even as not a single Democrat has yet announced. Insert all clichés here about the advantages of incumbency, but Arizonans I talk to seem dubious about Brewer’s ability to effectively confront the state’s fiscal problems. Dems hold their breath as Attorney General Terry Goddard mulls it over, and Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon’s name has been tossed around more than once as well.

Arkansas – Mike Beebe (D) seeking 2nd term

Outlook: Safe Democratic

Beebe is one of the few governors presumably not suffering from declining approval ratings these days, and last I checked was one of the most popular in the nation.

California (OPEN) – Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) term-limited

Outlook: Leans Democratic pickup

At the moment, the Republican primary is, surprisingly, more crowded than the Democratic one, with former Rep. Tom Campbell, State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, and former eBay CEO Meg Whitman duking it out. Most seem to give the well-financed Whitman an edge, though Poizner is the only candidate of the three to have successfully sought statewide office. On the Dem side, two Bay Area heavyweights are in (Attorney General and former Gov. Jerry Brown and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom) while Lt. Gov. John Garamendi is out (underwhelmed by his poll numbers against Brown and Newsom, he is seeking to replace Ellen Tauscher in Congress if and when she is confirmed as one of Hillary Clinton’s deputies). The mega-name still weighing his options? Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, the only Southern Californian and the only Hispanic being talked about in a state ever more ethnically diverse and heavily dominated by its southern counties. This race was assured long before it began to be a headliner.

Colorado – Bill Ritter (D) seeking 2nd term

Outlook: Leans Democratic

Most thought Ritter was one of the less obviously endangered governors in 2010 (and nearly all of them have taken a hit from economic worries and state budget crises), but a Public Policy poll shows trouble, with his approval in the red at 41-49 and mediocre numbers against potential opponents like former Rep. Scott McInnis and State Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry. There is plenty of time for Ritter to turn things around, but his supporters should certainly fight complacency.

Connecticut – Jodi Rell (R) seeking 2nd full term

Outlook: Likely Republican

There are credible Democratic candidates in former State House Speaker Jim Amann, Secy. of State Susan Bysiewicz, and Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, but as far as I know Rell is still fabulously popular (as the New York Times puts it, her approval ratings read like the temperature in Honolulu) and should defeat all comers.

Florida – Charlie Crist (R) either seeking 2nd term or running for the Senate

Outlook: Likely Republican if Crist runs again, Tossup if he vacates

The new conventional wisdom seems to be that Crist is prepping to run for the Senate and will announce in a matter of days, not weeks. To sum up what would happen in that event, I’ll sum things up in four words: “open governor’s mansion, Florida”. Let the generous cash infusions from both national parties begin.

Georgia (OPEN) – Sonny Perdue (R) term-limited

Outlook: Leans Republican

This race saw an interesting shakeup recently when Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, the putative frontrunner in the Republican primary and possibly in the general election as well, bowed out suddenly based on recent health concerns (there were other rumors about what informed his decision, but we’ll not go into those). The Republican primary is absurdly crowded, even if you only note the major candidates: Secy. of State Karen Handel, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, State Sen. Eric Johnson, Rep. Nathan Deal, and State Rep. Austin Scott. On the Democratic side, Atty. Gen. Thurbert Baker easily leads State House Minority Leader DuBose Porter and former Labor Commissioner David Poythress, but all eyes are on former Gov. Roy Barnes, who may mount a comeback and would probably be favored over Baker. After Obama’s 47% total in Georgia, Democrats are curious to test the waters either with a previous known quantity like Barnes or a well-known black candidate like Baker.

Hawaii (OPEN) – Linda Lingle (R) term-limited

Outlook: Leans Democratic pickup

The Republicans are lucky to have a well-known candidate like Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona, because any competent Democrat starts out favored in an open governor’s race in deep blue Hawaii (as an aside, remember circa 2004 when everyone fretted about future trends in the Aloha State?). The only Dem candidate so far is longtime Rep. Neil Abercrombie, but Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann and State Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, two names perennially floated for statewide office, are each considering an entrance.

Idaho – Butch Otter (R) seeking 2nd term

Outlook: Safe Republican

Well, who do you have in mind?

Illinois – Pat Quinn (D) seeking full term

Outlook: Likely Democratic

Here is some food for thought from Public Policy Polling: Quinn’s approval rating is a healthy 56%, quite good for a governor in 2009’s political climate, yet Atty. Gen. Lisa Madigan, a possible primary foe, leads the incumbent 45-29. Could it simply be that Madigan is more popular than Quinn? Rumor has long favored a Madigan gubernatorial run with State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias seeking the Senate seat, but the entire Blagojevich saga, and resulting ascent of the purportedly squeaky clean Quinn, may have cooled Madigan’s interest a bit. The GOP field includes at least two fairly big names in DuPage County State’s Attorney Joe Birkett and State Sen. Bill Brady, but either Quinn or Madigan would seem odds-on favorites for now.

Iowa – Chet Culver (D) seeking 2nd term

Outlook: Leans Democratic

Like Ritter in Colorado, Culver is appearing more vulnerable than was initially suspected, but the GOP bench is weak and plenty of Democratic governors seem more obvious targets. I hear that far-right icon Rep. Steve King is mulling a run, but that hardly seems reason for Culver to tremble given Iowa’s decidedly moderate electorate.

Kansas (OPEN) – Mark Parkinson (D) retiring after partial term

Outlook: Likely Republican pickup

It’s too bad the newly minted Governor isn’t interested in a full term, because he might actually have a fighting chance (though perhaps not against longtime Sen. Sam Brownback, probably the next Governor regardless of whom the Democrats eventually settle on).

Maine (OPEN) – John Baldacci (D) term-limited

Outlook: Leans Democratic (one assumes)

The only announced candidate right now with an electoral history is former Atty. Gen. Steve Rowe (D), after former Rep. Tom Allen declined. I’ve heard rumors about Rep. Mike Michaud, but it seems that few are yet anxious to capitalize on this once-every-eight-years opportunity.

Maryland – Martin O’Malley (D) seeking 2nd term

Outlook: Likely Democratic

O’Malley’s approvals are iffy but the GOP bench is virtually nonexistent, other than former Gov. Bob Ehrlich, who already lost to O’Malley in 2006.

Massachusetts – Deval Patrick (D) seeking 2nd term

Outlook: Likely Democratic

Patrick’s approval ratings are actually rather horrendous (27-68 according to SurveyUSA). The only announced challenger is an Independent, businessman Christy Mihos, and if Patrick has anything to feel good about, it’s the lack of quality GOP possibilities in the Bay State (odd considering their 16-year reign over the governor’s mansion). There has been gossip about a serious primary challenge, and with 27% approval, one assumes there would be room for that, but nothing has materialized just yet. This is definitely one to watch, for internecine fights if nothing else.

Michigan (OPEN) – Jennifer Granholm (D) term-limited

Outlook: Tossup

With redistricting around the corner and Michigan’s economy far worse even than the national one, this is a major concern for the Democrats. It is said that Lt. Gov. John Cherry (D) fails to impress as a stump speaker, but for now he is the odds-on primary favorite over Macomb County Sheriff Mark Hackel, MSU Trustee George Perles, State Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith, and former Flint Mayor Don Williamson (who resigned to avoid recall in February). Non-fans of Cherry’s hope to see State House Speaker Andy Dillon jump in. Major Republican candidates include Rep. Pete Hoekstra (ranking member on House Intelligence), State Sen. Tom George, Secy. of State Terri Lynn Land, and Atty. Gen. Mike Cox. The polls between Cherry and the Republicans are even at best, trending the wrong way at worst.

Minnesota – Tim Pawlenty (R) not sure whether he’ll seek 3rd term

Outlook: Tilts (not Leans) Republican if Pawlenty runs, Leans Democratic otherwise

Pawlenty has made no indications that he won’t seek a third term, but isn’t exactly jumping on a reelection campaign either. The Democratic field is crowded, with five current or former state legislators, Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner, and former Sen. Mark Dayton. Until we’re clear on Pawlenty’s plans, the situation remains opaque. (And honestly, aren’t we all accustomed by now to long waits re: Minnesota electoral politics?)

Nebraska – Dave Heineman (R) seeking 2nd full term

Outlook: Safe Republican

Politics1 lists no announced or potential candidates. That about sums this one up.

Nevada – Jim Gibbons (R) seeking 2nd term

Outlook: Likely Democratic pickup if Gibbons wins primary, Tossup otherwise

Last I heard Gibbons’ approval is in the 20s. The good news is that he’ll be gone after 2010; the bad news is that he may well lose the GOP primary to a superior pick like former State Sen. Joe Heck. No official Dem candidate yet, but the bench is deep considering Democrats’ dominance of statewide offices and the beginning of term limits affecting the state legislature.

New Hampshire – John Lynch (D) presumably seeking 4th term

Outlook: Safe Democratic

Lynch was reelected with 74% in 2006 and 70% in 2008, so he would have had to crash and burn since then (and I don’t think he has) to face a tough race in 2010.

New Mexico (OPEN) – Bill Richardson (D) term-limited

Outlook: Likely Democratic

Lt. Gov. Diane Denish is Richardson’s obvious successor and the Republican bench in the Land of Enchantment is as poor as ever. I suppose the dynamics could shift here, but for now, this is looking like a snooze-inducing changing of the guard.

New York – David Paterson (D) seeking full term

Outlook: Tossup if Paterson wins primary, Likely Democratic otherwise

Did I read right when I saw his approval rating at 19%? Atty. Gen. Andrew Cuomo says he isn’t interested in running, for now, but players in the New York Democratic Party must be praying that he’s lying. Fortunately, New York is bluer than ever, but Paterson is damaged goods and someone simply must take the leap.

Ohio – Ted Strickland (D) seeking 2nd term

Outlook: Leans / Likely Democratic

Strickland’s approval is a healthy 56%, though it’s 48% on the state’s inarguable top issue, the economy. Personally, I give him kudos for somehow maintaining decent numbers while serving as Governor of economically battered Ohio during a severe recession. His only announced opponent so far is State Sen. Kevin Coughlin.

Oklahoma (OPEN) – Brad Henry (D) term-limited

Outlook: Tilts Republican pickup

This is something of a doppelganger to Hawaii. Like Linda Lingle, Henry has preserved his favorability in a politically adverse state, the incumbent party’s candidate(s) is (are) strong, but the overwhelming partisan leanings of the state give the opposition party a leg up. Democrats Jari Askins, the Lt. Governor, and Drew Edmondson, the Atty. General, are no hacks, but this state was John McCain’s best at 66-34 over Obama. Rep. Mary Fallin leads the GOP field for now, but media favorite former Rep. J.C. Watts is seriously floating his name as well.

Oregon (OPEN) – Ted Kulongoski (D) term-limited

Outlook: Likely Democratic

If Oklahoma is a sort of reverse Hawaii in 2010, Oregon is Maine’s twin. As in Maine, the Democrats, whose bench is deep, should be enthused about a chance at the top office opening up in a blue state, particularly since the incumbent Governor’s approvals were never stellar, but only a single serious candidate has yet jumped in (in this case, former Secy. of State Bill Bradbury).

Pennsylvania (OPEN) – Ed Rendell (D) term-limited

Outlook: Tossup

Along with Michigan, this will be big-ticket defense for the Democrats, and for the same reasons. In this case, history would appear to be on the Republicans’ side — Rendell has been Governor since 2002, the GOP was in power from 1994-2002, the Dems from 1986-1994, the GOP from 1978-1986, the Dems from 1970-1978, the GOP from 1962-1970, the Dems from 1954-1962…see a pattern? But history is always true until it isn’t anymore. Businessman Tom Knox is the only announced Democratic candidate but the names being bandied about are some big ones, including Pittsburgh heavyweights Dan Onorato, the Allegheny County Executive, and Jack Wagner, the state’s Auditor General. On the GOP side, Rep. Jim Gerlach is looking at the race (though the NRSC wants him to challenge Arlen Specter), while Atty. Gen. Tom Corbett is the frontrunner for now.

Rhode Island (OPEN) – Don Carcieri (R) term-limited

Outlook: Who the heck knows?

No Democrat or Republican is running yet to replace Carcieri in liberal Rhode Island. But former Sen. Lincoln Chafee (probably) is, and as an Independent. Chafee did serve in the Senate as a Republican, but now that he is a third-partyer there is little love left for him in the GOP, particularly with the Steve Laffey wing ascendant. Meanwhile, Democrats have no candidate to win what should be a slam dunk pickup. This could be interesting…

South Carolina (OPEN) – Mark Sanford (R) term-limited

Outlook: Likely Republican

Compared to Alabama and Georgia, the Palmetto State Democratic bench is weak. The current odds-on favorite to replace Sanford is backbencher Rep. Gresham Barrett (R), and rumors abound of a run by Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who would give Barrett a competitive primary. For now, it’s hard to see Democrats running seriously here.

South Dakota (OPEN) – Mike Rounds (R) term-limited

Outlook: Safe Republican assuming Rep. Herseth Sandlin (D) doesn’t run

The gossip about Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) has visibly died down, so drama will likely be reserved for the Republican primary (currently headlined by Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard and State Senate Majority Leader Dave Knudson).

Tennessee (OPEN) – Phil Bredesen (D) term-limited

Outlook: Leans Republican pickup

State Senate Minority Leader Roy Herron, former State House Majority Leader Kim McMillan, and businessman Mike McWherter (son of former Gov. Ned McWherter), are credible choices on the Democratic side, but momentum has long been with the Republicans in Tennessee (along with Louisiana, West Virginia, Arkansas, and Oklahoma, it was one of five states to move against the Democrats and Obama in the 2008 presidential election compared to 2004). Between Shelby County D.A. Bill Gibbons, Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, State Senate Speaker Ron Ramsey, and Rep. Zach Wamp, the GOP should be well positioned to snatch this one (for redistricting purposes, Democrats should stay focused on races for the evenly divided state House).

Texas – Rick Perry (R) seeking 3rd full term

Outlook: Likely Republican

My gut tells me all statewide races in Texas should automatically be put as Safe Republican unless specific conditions indicate otherwise, but the lack of certainty about this race’s development forces me to stay open-minded. As we all know, Perry faces a stiff and long-anticipated (by long-anticipated, I mean that it’s been chatted about for eight years at least) primary challenge from Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. Hutchison was expected to trounce Perry, but the governor’s recent appeal to far-right secessionists and fundamentalists seems to have helped his viability against the famously popular Hutchison. And the Democrats? Former Ambassador to Japan Tom Schieffer and — yup — Kinky Friedman.

Vermont – Jim Douglas (R) seeking 5th term

Outlook: Tilts Republican

Douglas has routinely maintained good approvals and capitalized on a divided left due to Vermont’s electorally strong Progressive Party, but the Democrats seem ready to give him a real race in 2010, with Secy. of State Deb Markowitz and State Sen. Doug Racine (who lost to Douglas by a hair in 2002) both announced candidates. If the third parties sit this one out for once, there may be a real shot at turning Vermont’s state government wholly blue, especially with an energized left in the wake of gay marriage’s statewide enactment.

Wisconsin – Jim Doyle (D) seeking 3rd term

Outlook: Tossup / Tilts Democratic

Doyle’s fundraising hints at a third bid, and familiar Republicans like former Rep. Mark Neumann and Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker are lining up to take him on. With Doyle’s approvals a measly 32-63, color me surprised that more commentators aren’t characterizing him as seriously vulnerable.

Wyoming (OPEN???) – Dave Freudenthal (D) term-limited?

Outlook: Safe Democratic if Freudenthal runs, Likely Republican pickup otherwise

Freudenthal is term-limited, but has been floating the idea of challenging the state’s term limit law in court, particularly since similarly worded state legislative term limits were overturned as unconstitutional a few years ago. Everyone seems to agree that Freudenthal is nearly unbeatable as an incumbent, but that few Democrats stands a chance in his absence.

OVERALL OUTLOOK: Gubernatorial races are looking to be the most fluid of elections in 2010, between term limits and a bevy of possible game-changing decisions by big names. With Democrats likely to stay firmly in the driver’s seat on Capitol Hill, Republicans would be wise to look for rebirth in governor’s mansions, as the gubernatorial map runs far less favorable to the Democrats in 2010, at least upon first glance. While the GOP will likely make a big sacrifice in California, and may be forced to defend Florida seriously should Crist seek the Senate seat, the Democrats will be playing major defense in New York, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, three key states for redistricting (Ohio is not yet in the bag either). Meanwhile, plenty of sitting governors sit on less than fantastic approval ratings, and many seem primed for an electoral scare. Of all offices being contested in 2010, governor’s mansions are, at this early date, on track to host the most volatile, crowded, and unpredictable election fights…and considering the implications (governors’ future high profiles, the role states as laboratories for national policy, and the more pedestrian question of redistricting), we should all be paying attention.

Every pollster you can think of, and every pollster’s dog as well, just released New Hampshire numbers. There aren’t any particular surprises (there’s major improvement in Strategic Vision and Suffolk, but that just brings them in line with everyone else), so I’m just going to throw them all out there in a somewhat more space-saving format:

Rasmussen: Shaheen 52 (52), Sununu 44 (46)

SurveyUSA: Shaheen 53 (48), Sununu 40 (40)

Lynch 65 (67), Kenney 28 (24)

Strategic Vision (R): Shaheen 48 (47), Sununu 41 (45)

Lynch 67 (68), Kenney 24 (23)

Suffolk: Shaheen 48 (41), Sununu 39 (40)

Lynch 67 (61), Kenney 15 (16)

Research 2000 for Concord Monitor:

Shaheen 52 (50), Sununu 42 (43)

Lynch 64 (60), Kenney 32 (34)

Shea-Porter 49 (48), Bradley 42 (43)

Hodes 55 (49), Horn 38 (35)

Also, as always, UNH has its daily tracker, which covers all these races plus the presidential and the two congressional races, if you’re a big fan of tiny sample sizes.

OK, get all the pirate-themed ARG jokes out of your system. Ready now?

American Research Group (likely voters, 6/13-17):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 54

John Sununu (R-inc): 40

(MoE: ±4%)

Jeanne Shaheen still faces a big campaign funds shortfall compared with the loaded Sununu, but the polls have consistently had this one in Casey/Santorum wipeout territory, and this is no exception. She owes her edge to indies: Shaheen is up 53-38 among independent and undeclared voters.

Of course, that’s peanuts compared with the beat-down that popular incumbent governor John Lynch is administering to state senator Joseph Kenney, as he seeks another term.

John Lynch (D-inc): 65

Joseph Kenney (R): 21

(MoE: ±4%)

Bear in mind, though, that the top line of the poll also has Obama beating McCain 51-39, so this may be an overly Democratic sample. (Or else the McCain campaign is completely imploding, and there’s enough polling evidence over the last week to actually suggest that.)