Tag: KS-Sen

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

A Democrat hasn’t represented Kansas in the U.S. Senate since the 1930’s.  There is no way a Democrat could win a U.S. Senate seat in Kansas in 2008!

Wrong.

Kansas could very well be the sleeper competitive Senate race of 2008.  Why?  Several reasons.

1) Unintimidating Approval Numbers: Look at Pat Roberts’ approval rating over the last year, according to Survey USA.

6/19/07: 51-37
5/24/07: 52-36
4/25/07: 48-39
3/20/07: 50-36
2/22/07: 49-37
1/24/07: 52-35
12/20/06: 52-36
11/22/06: 51-36
10/15/06: 47-42
9/20/06: 53-37
8/15/06: 48-39

Since August ’06, Roberts’ average approve-disapprove has been 50.3-37.3.  These are not the intimidating approval numbers of an unbeatable incumbent.  If a Senator from a traditional Presidential swing state had approval numbers like these, that Senator would be a top-tier target.  But, just because this is Kansas and not Ohio doesn’t mean as much as you’d think (as you’ll see in point number three).

Much more below the fold.

2) Roberts Oversaw Intelligence Scandals: From 2003 until the Democrats’ reclaiming of the Senate Majority, Pat Roberts served as Chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.  During his tenure as Chairman, Roberts’ oversight was so lax that the committee was dubbed “the Senate Cover-up Committee.”  Roberts rolled over for the unpopular Bush administration on numerous intelligence issues including warrantless domestic spying and wiretapping, Iraq oversight, leaking classified information, and allowing torture.  I doubt that law-abiding Kansas families would be too thrilled with the fact that Pat Roberts supports Bush’s ability to warrantlessly spy on them.

3) Kansas Growing More Democratic-Friendly: A few indicators suggest that Kansas is growing more and more comfortable voting Democratic.  First, compare the approval ratings of a couple of chief executives.  George W. Bush’s approve-disapprove in Kansas stands at a shocking 38-60.  Bush’s approval in Kansas is so low that Pat Roberts himself has begun to qualify his support of Bush’s Iraq War.  Meanwhile, Governor Kathleen Sebelius, who was re-elected last year by a 58-40 margin, has an approve-disapprove that stands at 65-31.  The Democratic chief executive is considerably more popular than the Republican chief executive.  Beyond that, ten years ago, all four of Kansas’ U.S. House seats were held by Republicans.  Now, the breakdown is two Republicans, two Democrats, highlighted by Nancy Boyda’s stunning victory in 2006.  Between Bush’s unpopularity, Sebelius’ popularity, and the overall Congressional shift, Kansans are clearly more comfortable voting (D).

4) Lack of Support from National Republicans: With 22 Republican-held seats (including recent Wyoming appointee John Barrasso) to defend, compared with 12 Democratic seats, the NRSC will have its hands full.  Couple those numbers with the fact that the DSCC is trouncing the NRSC in fundraising, raising money at a pace double that of the NRSC.  With the NRSC worried about defending first-tier battlegrounds like Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Oregon, and Colorado, they probably won’t have much money left over to send in to Kansas to help Pat Roberts out.

5) The KS-GOP Mess: The Kansas Republican Party has seen better days.  The KS-GOP is apparently near bankruptcy.  The KS-GOP is getting sued over a labor dispute.  And, following a spate of high profile Republicans in Kansas changing their voter affiliation to Democrat (including current statewide officeholders and a former KS-GOP Chair!), the KS-GOP has cooked up a rather creepy Unity Pledge.  The KS-GOP is in bad shape.

The above five reasons outline why Pat Roberts can be deemed quite vulnerable in 2008.  So, who is there to challenge him?

Last month, I outlined a dozen prominent Kansas Democrats.  Of course, there are Governor Kathleen Sebelius and Congresspeople Dennis Moore and Nancy Boyda, though Governor Sebelius has expressed no interest and both Congresspeople are expected to run for re-election to the House.

There are also four Republicans-turned-Democrat on the list: first-term Lt. Gov. (and former KS-GOP Chair) Mark Parkinson, first-term state Attorney General Paul Morrison, former Kansas House Majority Leader Joe Hoagland, and former Lt. Gov. John Moore.  As freshmen in their current roles, Parkinson and Morrison are expected to stand pat and accrue more experience before an attempt at another office.  Hoagland and Moore both remain interesting options; in fact, Hoagland considered a challenge to Sam Brownback in 2004.

Former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture and former Kansas Congressperson Dan Glickman seems too comfortable at his current job as President of the Motion Picture Association of America to attempt a run; and, while I have heard rumors of interest from political activist, military veteran and Congressional spouse Steve Boyda, he may have his hands too full assisting Nancy in her re-election bid to undertake a statewide run of his own.

The three remaining names are: state Secretary of Revenue Joan Wagnon, whose resume is quite impressive; 2004 Senate candidate Joan Ruff, whose ’04 campaign seemed to gain a lot of traction only to have her inexplicably withdraw her bid shortly before the primary; and, 1996 Senate candidate Jill Docking, a businesswoman who is also the daughter-in-law of former Kansas Governor Robert Docking.

Should Governor Sebelius, of course the dream candidate, definitively insist against a Senate bid, I’d offer that the two most interesting names that the DSCC could pursue are state Secretary of Revenue Joan Wagnon and former Kansas House Majority Leader and Republican-turned-Democrat Joe Hoagland.  Regardless of who is pursued, it is inarguable that Pat Roberts is vulnerable to a strong challenger.  I hope that the KS-Dems work hard to propel a challenger forward and that the DSCC does not overlook Kansas as a potential Senate battleground.

(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

In the left-hand column of the Guru’s website, there is a list of “Democratic Senatorial Incumbents and Candidates” featuring Democratic incumbents, announced Democratic challengers for GOP-held seats, and Democrats considering bids for GOP-held seats.  Though there is still much time left to recruit challengers, there are seven states on the list featuring only “unknown” – in other words, there are seven states with Republican incumbent Senators where there are no Democrats even publicly considering a Senate bid, only rumors at best.  Let’s look at those seven states.

(Much more after the jump.)

Alaska: Given Ted Stevens’ advanced age (he’s 83), his penchant for flying off in a tizzy from time to time, and his proximity to scandal, Democrats ought to field someone credible just in case.  Much speculation has focused on Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, who is term-limited out of office in 2009.  I think he should definitely run.  Best case scenario, he wins.  Worst case scenario, he loses but he increases his statewide profile for a 2010 challenge to Lisa Murkowski, who is significantly less popular than Stevens at a time when the Murkowski name isn’t worth what it used to be in Alaska.  (Her father, former Senator and now-former-Governor Frank Murkowski, had a dismal 19% showing in his 2006 primary bid for re-election after having taken heat for the nepotism associated with naming his daughter to his old Senate seat.)  If the DSCC offered him continued support in 2010 if he didn’t win 2008, he could go for it.  Otherwise, we ought to check with Alaska Democratic mainstay former Governor Tony Knowles or, perhaps more quixotically, former Senator and current Presidential candidate Mike Gravel to see if they wouldn’t mind having their name on the line just in case.  Race tracker wiki: AK-Sen

Georgia: The Peach State has arguably shifted more than any other state in the nation from Democratic- to Republican-trending over the last decade.  Right now, the only thing Democrats have resembling a candidate under the Democratic banner is self-proclaimed “conservative Democrat” and 2004 Bush voter Vernon Jones, the weak-fundraising CEO of DeKalb County.  Beyond that, some Democratic insiders have been urging Congressman Jim Marshall to consider a Senate bid, though Marshall may have a tough House re-election bid on his hands (could that motivate him to just jump into the Senate fray?).  Meanwhile state Attorney General Thurbert Baker has done nothing to quash speculation about Senate interest.  DKos diarists biglib (also now at Tondee’s Tavern), Mister Gloom, and VolvoDrivingLiberal offer thoughts on the GA-Dem bench – mostly just rumors, former candidates, or current office-holders that like where they are.  “Shameless” Saxby Chambliss is the Republican incumbent I would most like to see lose in 2008 as a result of his despicable 2002 campaign, so I hope the GA-Dems come up with something interesting.  I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: not a day goes by where I don’t hope that true American patriot and former Senator Max Cleland doesn’t reconsider a rematch of 2002.  (If you’ll forgive the triple-negative in the previous sentence, I just really want Cleland to get in the race and give Chambliss his comeuppance.)  Race tracker wiki: GA-Sen

Kansas: Pat Roberts’ approval hovers right around the 50% zone, but Kansas is still a red state.  The dream candidate remains popular Governor Kathleen Sebelius, who has expressed no interest in a 2008 Senate race and may be holding out for the 2008 Veepstakes.  With an approval in the 60-70% range and approval among Republicans over 50%, I’m confident she could beat Pat Roberts.  Kansas does enjoy other Democratic statewide elected officials, including Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson (a former KS-GOP Chair who switched parties to run with Sebelius) and state Attorney General Paul Morrison, as well as Democratic Congresspeople Dennis Moore and Nancy Boyda (half of Kansas’ four-person House delegation), but none have indicated interest in a Senate bid.  It would be disappointing to see a potentially competitive race in the heartland fall by the wayside; and, as long as Roberts hovers around 50% approval, Kansas is potentially competitive.  Race tracker wiki: KS-Sen

Mississippi: There is a question as to whether or not incumbent Thad Cochran will run for re-election.  Despite the unusual signals that might suggest retirement, if I had to make a prediction right now, I would offer that Cochran would run for another term, given Cochran’s steady fundraising compared with the meager showing of Cochran understudy Chip Pickering.  The dream candidate in Mississippi would be former state Attorney General Mike Moore, but it has been suggested that Moore would only put the effort into a run if Cochran retired – the catch-22 being that Cochran might only retire if he faced a stiff challenge from someone like Moore.  Like Kansas, half of Mississippi’s four-person House delegation is Democratic, but there have been no rumblings.  Even yearnings for celebrity candidates like author (and former state legislator) John Grisham or actor Morgan Freeman have made the rounds.  But, so far, silence.  Race tracker wiki: MS-Sen

South Carolina: With a very lean SC-Dem bench, Lindsey Graham could be more likely to face a primary challenge from a Club for Growth-style right-winger unhappy with Graham’s maverick nature than a viable Democrat.  Nevertheless, every state should have a challenger.  The race tracker wiki only offers speculation on the SC-Dems’ 2004 Senate challenger, former State Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum, and former state Party Chair Joe Erwin.  Tenenbaum’s successor as Superintendent, Jim Rex, remains South Carolina’s only statewide elected Democrat (and barely, at that, with Rex taking 47.50% percent of the vote to the Republican’s 47.45% of the vote, winning by less than 500 votes in a race where the Green Party candidate took about 9,000 votes, while the Libertarian, Independence, and Constitution Party candidates combined for over 45,000 votes or over 4% of the total vote).  The Palmetto State’s six-person House delegation features two Democrats, both of whom have plum committee assignments in the new Democratic House majority that they probably would not want to part with.  A second-look at the 2006 state election results offer that the top vote-getting Democrat was not Jim Rex but rather Robert Barber, who narrowly lost his bid for the Lieutenant Governor’s office and who has a very interesting background.  If I were the DSCC, I’d give Mr. Barber a ring and find out if there was any interest.  Race tracker wiki: SC-Sen

Tennessee: Tennessee actually enjoys a fairly solid, intriguing bench of potential Senate candidates.  Still, pretty much nothing but silence.  Meanwhile, Lamar Alexander’s approval looms unintimidatingly in the low-50’s.  2006 Democratic TN-Sen nominee former Congressman Harold Ford Jr. has taken the reins of the DLC and seems to have backed off of speculation about a repeat bid in ’08.  Extremely popular Governor Phil Bredesen has not shown any interest in a Senate bid that he could very reasonably win.  Perhaps he, like Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, is waiting on the 2008 Veepstakes.  (Come to think of it, the “popular Democratic Governor uninterested in a very winnable Senate challenge against a lackluster Republican incumbent in favor of the ’08 Veepstakes” motif fits a few states, including Tennessee, Kansas, and North Carolina, and even Wyoming minus the Veepstakes angle.)  Ford’s 2006 primary opponent, state senator Rosalind Kurita, lost a lot of goodwill when she voted for the Republican Speaker of the Senate/Lt. Gov. over the Democratic incumbent.  Speculation has also surrounded Nashville Mayor Bill Purcell, former state Party Chair Bob Tuke, Tipper Gore, and musician & Bush critic Tim McGraw.  DKos diarist Sidof79 keeps regularly tabs on the potential candidates, offering a near-monthly update.  However, so far we have only heard speculation.  Race tracker wiki: TN-Sen

Wyoming: It frequently feels like there are only two Democrats who live in Wyoming: extremely popular Governor Dave Freudenthal, who has demonstrated no interest in a Senate bid; and Gary Trauner, who very narrowly lost his 2006 at-large House challenge to Barbara Cubin and looks like he may be opting for a rematch there.  If I were to gauge the landscape right now, I would deem Mike Enzi the safest Republican up for re-election in 2008 (and the most likely to get a free ride), unless Governor Freudenthal finds the desire to run for Senate.  Surely, somewhere in Wyoming is a Jon Tester/Scott Kleeb-style progressive, populist farmer/rancher.  Race tracker wiki: WY-Sen

Again, every state should find a challenger.  These seven states are not un-winnable.  In fact, most of these states have the potential to be highly competitive races.  Of the seven, three (Kansas, Tennessee, and Wyoming) have very popular Democratic Governors who could immediately make for top-tier races in their respective states.  Alaska has, in my mind, a clear choice to pursue in Mayor Begich, with the offer of continued support through 2010.  Mississippi sees a possible retirement in Cochran as well as another obvious preferred candidate in former AG Moore.  In Georgia, Chambliss’ approval also looms around the low-50’s; maybe if we ask for Senator Cleland politely enough he’ll change his mind and immediately turn Georgia into a highly competitive race.  South Carolina is tough, but there should be no free rides.

Who do you want to see run for Senate in 2008? That’s what we’re talking about in this post.

This is the second Senate recruitment open thread here on Swing State Project (the first one was here, and we saw all kinds of great suggestions). We’re going in alphabetical order, five GOP-held seats at a time. Links are to the Race Tracker wiki, and incumbents are in parens:

6) Kansas (Pat Roberts)

7) Kentucky (Mitch McConnell)

8) Maine (Susan Collins)

9) Minnesota (Norm Coleman)

10) Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

As I said the first time:

Don’t limit yourself to politicians. Businesspeople, community leaders, activists – even athletes or celebrities (think Heath Shuler or Al Franken) – are all fair game. Even seemingly outlandish suggestions are welcome. Would you have ever predicted that the guitarist from Orleans would now be a Congressman-elect?

However, please do limit yourself to the five races listed in this post. I know everyone is eager to talk about the whole slate of races we’ve got lined up, but I promise that we’ll get to each batch separately. I think we can have a more productive discussion, though, if we stay focused and only deal with a chunk of races at time.

So, what’ve you got?