Tag: NC-Sen

Bad news:

Big news out of North Carolina: Attorney General Roy Cooper won’t be running for the Senate, depriving Democrats of one of their top recruits against Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.).

“While I am honored by the encouragement I’ve received, I don’t want to go to Washington and serve as a U.S. Senator at this time,” Cooper said in a statement. “I am committed to public service and I want to serve here in North Carolina rather than in Washington.”

This is a major bummer, no doubt. Most polls had Cooper running neck and neck with Burr, holding him well under 50% in all cases — the best numbers any Democrat have yielded in a hypothetical head-to-head.

Still, Burr, who possesses some pretty tepid approval numbers, is not out of the woods yet. Much like Elizabeth Dole last cycle, he’s still polling under 50% against a variety of lesser-known Democrats — including a 39-34 lead against Democratic congressman Mike McIntyre, who himself is not ruling out a bid for the office. Perhaps Bob Menendez should get on the phone, stat.

UPDATE: Roll Call offers a few more recruitment possibilities:

National Democrats could look to several Democratic Members from North Carolina, including Reps. Bob Etheridge and Mike McIntyre, to run for the seat. State Treasurer Richard Moore, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and state Rep. Grier Martin are also possible targets of Democratic recruitment.

LATER UPDATE: The News & Observer has an even more expansive list of potential candidates. It’s well worth a look.

• PA-Sen: In a big diss to Arlen Specter, the Democratic caucus last night voted to slot Specter into the most junior spots on his committees for the remainder of this Congress. The issue won’t be revisited until after the midterm. This strips Specter of one of his strongest re-election arguments: seniority, and the power to make things happen that comes with it (especially on his Appropriations subcommittee… although that’s not as huge a problem in a big state like Pennyslvania as it would be in an Appropriations-dependent state like Alaska).

• KY-Sen: There’s another potential GOP primary challenger to Jim Bunning sniffing out the race, in case SoS Trey Grayson doesn’t show up despite having opened an exploratory committee. Cathy Bailey hasn’t held elective office before, but she’s strong on the fundraising front. She was a Bush Pioneer in 2000, and was rewarded for that with a post as Ambassador to Latvia. She’s married to the former CEO of Providian as well, so she can self-fund if need be.

• NC-Sen: Kenneth Lewis, a Durham attorney and fundraiser for Barack Obama, is telling state Democratic Party leaders that he will run against Richard Burr next year. Still no word on state AG Roy Cooper’s intentions. (J)

• IL-Gov: DuPage County Board chair Robert Schillerstrom is setting up an exploratory committee to run for the GOP nomination in the 2010 gubernatorial race. He’ll join state Senator Bill Brady, who’s already in the hunt. Brady has the “my turn” advantage, having finished 3rd in the 2006 primary, but the suburban Schillerstrom would have the population advantage over downstate’s Brady.

• NJ-Gov: The Democratic Governors’ Association has been reading the Gray Davis playbook (or maybe my advice?): they’re going hard after Chris Christie this month with an ad barrage in order to damage Christie in the hopes of getting the much less-known and more-conservative Steve Lonegan the GOP nomination instead. The Corzine camp is not involved in the efforts, which aims at Christie’s strength: questioning his supposed corruption-fighting credentials as U.S. Attorney.

• VA-02: Ex-Rep. Thelma Drake announced she won’t seek a rematch against Rep. Glenn Nye, who upset her in 2008. This may actually be bad news! for Nye, as there are potential GOP candidates more impressive than the polarizing Drake waiting in the wings. Nye has to be bolstered, though, by the blue shift in this now R+5 district, narrowly won by Obama.

• MN-06: Maureen Reed, a former Univ. of Minnesota regent who ran for Lt. Gov on the Independence Party ticket, will be running in MN-06 in the DFL primary in 2010. While she might not make it through the primary, especially if Elwyn Tinklenberg runs again and/or state Senator Tarryl Clark runs, I’m taking this as a positive sign, in that the IP might not be looking to shoot us in the foot this time. (See also Populista‘s diary.)

• NRCC: The NRCC has launched another offensive on what they perceive as vulnerable (or at least soften-up-able) Dems, with radio ads against Marion Berry, Charlie Melancon, Earl Pomeroy, Zack Space, and John Tanner. Space is the only one who’s on Frontline, but Berry, Melancon, and Tanner are all in districts that moved sharply toward McCain in 2008. The ad attacks the Blue Dogs for being “lap dogs” on the Obama budget.

• Gay marriage: The gay marriage train just keeps building up speed, picking up one more state today. After some public hemming and hawing, Maine Governor John Baldacci signed gay marriage legislation this morning after it passed both chambers of the legislature. (Discussion underway in David Kowalski‘s diary.)

• King County Executive: The first poll is out in the race to lead King County (which puts you in charge of 1.8 million constituents, and is a frequent stepping stone to Washington governor). In a bit of a twist, the Republican (it’s an ostensibly nonpartisan race, but everyone knows who’s what) is in the lead in this dark-blue county: former TV news anchor Susan Hutchison is at 20%, followed by two county councilors from Seattle proper (Dow Constantine at 6 and Larry Phillips at 5) and two Eastside state legislators (Fred Jarrett at 7 and Ross Hunter at 3). All the Dems (each of whom is largely unknown outside his district) added up together beat the widely-known Hutchison, though, so whichever Dem survives the primary seems likely to pull this out in the general election, in Nov. 2009.

• Mayors: Republican Dan Sullivan beat Democrat Eric Croft to replace Mark Begich as Anchorage mayor yesterday, 57-43. (Sullivan has the advantage of being the son of former mayor George Sullivan.) Discussion underway in benjso99‘s diary. Also, yesterday in Detroit, Dave Bing defeated newly-minted mayor Ken Cockrel by 4 points. (Which makes him the second legendary NBA point guard to ascend to mayor, following Sacramento’s Kevin Johnson.)

McLaughlin and Associates (R) for the Civitas Institute (4/21-23, likely voters, March 2009 in parens):

Roy Cooper (D): 34 (41)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 35 (38)

Undecided: 32 (21)

(MoE: ±4%)

So down at the skunkworks at SSP Labs, the boys and I spent some time trying to figure out why on earth both Cooper and Burr would show drops like this from the last survey – especially Coop. Our initial diagnostics came up empty, but after scoping out the innards, I think we’ve come up with something.

You might have noticed that the very first line of this post refers to a polling outfit called “McLaughlin and Associates,” a Republican firm from Alexandria, Virginia. I’m not familiar with them, and in fact, I’ve never seen Civitas identify McLaughlin as their pollster.

More importantly, McLaughlin changed the wording of the horserace question from what Civitas had been using in the past. In other words, we don’t have a true trendline. The old question:

“If the election for United States Senate were held today and the candidates were republican Richard Burr and democrat Roy Cooper, for which would you be voting?  If not sure/unsure/refused… which candidates are you leaning toward: republican Richard Burr or democrat Roy Cooper?”

And the new question:

If the election were held today, which one of the following best describes how you are likely to vote in the election for United States Senate between Richard Burr, the republican candidate, and Roy Cooper, the democratic candidate?

The choices were “definitely X,” “probably,” “lean,” and perhaps “undecided.” The key change is that the old poll actually pushed leaners – it doesn’t look like the new one did. And the less-than-traditional phrasing of the new question seems a bit wonky to me. I’ve never really seen a straight horserace question tested in quite that way before. All in all, an unusual set of choices by Civitas, but it looks like our dedicated gang of greasemonkeys has at least solved this mystery.

• PA-Sen: The founder of the PA chapter of the Club for Growth has called on Pat Toomey to drop out (!), saying that he’s too conservative for Pennsylvania. (No shit.) The Toomey camp fired back with some mostly non-responsive B.S. (D)

• CA-Gov: San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom made the official leap from exploring the California governor’s race to being an officially announced candidate yesterday. He joins Lt. Gov. John Garamendi as the only formal candidates in the race, although Garamendi’s campaign is on hold while he pursues the CA-10 special election.

• CA-Sen: The California GOP has lined up a “strong second choice” to challenge Barbara Boxer if ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina doesn’t get in the race. African-American talk radio host Larry Elder, who was on Los Angeles’s KABC for 15 years, is meeting with GOP officials, but still sidelined while waiting for Fiorina. (The pro-choice, pro-pot legalization Elder is very much from the libertarian wing of the party.) Assemblyman Chuck Devore is already officially a candidate, but the party seems unenthused about his odds.

• NC-Sen, NC-07: Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre says that his re-election to the House is his current “concentration”, but when asked if he’s considering a Senate bid, McIntyre told a local ABC affiliate that “you never say never to anything.” A recent PPP poll had McIntyre trailing Richard Burr by only five points. (J)

• TN-09: Rep. Steve Cohen, as a white Jewish man representing a mostly African-American district, is going to always be vulnerable to primary challenges (as seen with last year’s mudfest with Nikki Tinker). It looks like he’ll be facing a serious test this year, as Memphis mayor Willie Herenton has formed an exploratory committee for the House race. Herenton is African-American and has been mayor since 1991, elected five times. On the other hand, there may be some Herenton fatigue going on in this district, as he is under federal investigation, was re-elected most recently with less than 50% of the vote, and announced his resignation in 2008 only to withdraw it shortly after.

• NY-20: You know it’s over for Jim Tedisco when major Republicans are telling him to pack it in. Yesterday, ex-Rep. Tom Davis said it was over, and today, state senator Betty Little (who lost the special election nomination to Tedisco) and Dan Isaacs (who’s running for state GOP chair) also called for the pulling of the plug. Isaacs is so upset that he’s reduced to making up new words: “Tedisco appears not able to pull out a victory in an overwhelmingly Republican district; to me that’s the final indignancy.”

• MI-02: Roll Call takes a quick look at the race to replace retiring Rep. Pete Hoekstra. On the GOP side, former state rep. Bill Huizenga is the “biggest voice that’s out there,” but state senator Wayne Kuipers is poised to get in, as is former NFL player Jay Riemersma, who’s well connected with the Christian right. (Notice a common thread in those names? This is the nation’s most heavily Dutch-American district.) There are three Democratic state reps in the district, too, but none of them seem to be making a move yet.

• Michigan: An interesting white paper obtained from the Michigan GOP shows that they’re quite pessimistic about getting back into power in 2010, despite the advantages they seem to be taking into next year’s governor’s race. Their suburban base has eroded since the 1990s, and their one-note message just isn’t resonating with swing voters anymore.

• NRSC: Continuing our theme of unusually reality-based Republicans today, NRSC John Cornyn is sounding an increasingly cautious note about senate prospects in 2010, telling the Hill that it’s “going to be real hard” to keep the Democrats from breaking 60 seats in 2010.

• NH-St. Sen.: Ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley, who lost twice to Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, has begun a new, more low-key chapter in his career, as a state senator. He easily won a special election, 61-39, over retired judge Bud Martin, to retain a GOP-held open seat. Dems continue to hold a 14-10 edge in the chamber.

John Sununu Sr. (the state GOP chair) didn’t seem interested in spinning the victory as indication of a new GOP trend in New Hampshire, though. Always a charmer, Sununu’s thoughts instead were:

He said Bradley’s election actually helps [Gov. John] Lynch. Bradley could be counted on to sustain a Lynch veto of the gay marriage and transgender discrimination legislation, “if he (Lynch) finds the strength to veto that garbage,” Sununu said.

Public Policy Polling (4/8-11, registered voters, 12/8-9 in parens):

Roy Cooper (D): 41 (39)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 37 (34)

Mike McIntyre (D): 34

Richard Burr (R-inc): 39

(MoE: ±3.1%)

PPP seems to be on a quest to test every conceivable Dem against Richard Burr, and this time they threw 7th CD Rep. Mike McIntyre into the mix; despite being unknown to over half the state, McIntyre posts the best performance of any Dem against Burr in PPP’s polling other than state Attorney General Roy Cooper. While McIntyre has not expressed any interest in the Senate race, he would bring some regional strength in a hypothetical match-up; in a head-to-head against Burr, he leads the Republican by 48-33 in Southeastern NC, while Burr and Cooper are tied at 40-40 there.

Still, Cooper is undoubtedly our best bet for this race. He sports a solid 41-20 favorable rating (much better than Burr’s tepid 35-31 rating), and destroys Burr among moderate voters by a 56-21 margin. For those keeping score, this marks the third poll (of four publicly-released ones) showing Cooper in the lead. Luckily for us, Cooper will make a decision on this race “very soon“.

{First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate Guru.}

In a story released today by The News & Observer, North Carolina’s Democratic state Attorney General Roy Cooper indicated that he may decide on whether or not to run for Senate in 2010 IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS!

Polls by Civitas and Public Policy Polling already show Attorney General Cooper beating Republican incumbent Richard Burr (who has recently gained notoriety by blocking Tammy Duckworth’s appointment to a Veterans Affairs post).

If you so see fit, PLEASE call Roy Cooper’s campaign office at 919-832-4312 (you’ll probably get voice mail) and leave a simple message encouraging Roy Cooper to run for Senate in 2010.  Explain that North Carolina and all of America would benefit by having his common sense voice replace Richard Burr’s obstructionist voice.

Every word of encouragement he receives makes him more likely to run — and, if he runs, we can replace Republican backbencher Richard Burr with a strong Democrat like Roy Cooper!

On the web: Draft Roy Cooper for U.S. Senate in 2010 Facebook Group

On the web: Draft Coop

Via SG, the North Carolina’s News & Observer sayeth:

Attorney General Roy Cooper said he hopes to make a decision on whether to challenge Republican Sen. Richard Burr some time this spring, Rob Christensen reports.

“I want to continue with public service to the people of North Carolina,” Cooper said Tuesday morning after attending a meeting of the Council of State. “I’m going to determine the best way to do that. I’m going to decide that very soon.”

Technically speaking, that gives Cooper until June 20th to make up his mind – summer officially starts on the 21st. A few other folks have also offered some soft deadlines.

RI-Gov – Lincoln Chafee (I):

But in a visit to Barrington Congregational Church, where he spoke about America’s world role in the post-Bush era, the 56-year-old Chafee said again that he is “very, very interested” in running and will decide this spring, based on whether he thinks he can raise the money to run a campaign and whether he has a chance to win. …

He said he expects to decide on a gubernatorial run when the fellowship ends in May.

NY-Sen-B – Peter King (R):

Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y), the leading Republican contender for the New York Senate seat, praised newly-appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, and said he won’t decide whether to run against her until this summer.

OR-Gov – Greg Walden (R):

Whatever the case, Walden sounds like he’ll be quicker to make a decision about the governorship than DeFazio. While the Democrat said he has no deadline, Walden said he wants to make his intentions clear by summer.

FL-Sen – Charlie Crist (R):

Few Republicans are entering the race so far. Most are waiting a decision from Governor Charlie Crist, who says he’ll make an annoucement on whether or not he’ll make a run for Washington after the state legislative session wraps up in May.

Do you know of any others? Please let us know in comments (with links). Thanks!

Civitas (3/16-19, registered voters):

Roy Cooper (D): 41

Richard Burr (R-inc): 38

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Roy Cooper, the Attorney General of North Carolina, continues to post the best numbers of any prospective Democrat against GOP wallflower Richard Burr. A Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos in January showed Burr edging Cooper by a 45-43 margin, while PPP had Cooper leading by a 39-34 spread in December. Burr has to be nervous about a head-to-head race against the state’s top lawman.

Both Burr and Cooper will have an opportunity to acquaint a broad swath of voters with themselves; Burr holds a 44-12 favorability rating, but 31% have “no opinion” of the Senator, and another 19% have never heard of him. Lacking a well-defined image after four years in office while holding a notoriously volatile seat seems to be Burr’s biggest weakness at this point. Cooper, meanwhile, is not exactly a household name either — he sports a 32-4 favorability rating with 27% having no opinion of him and complete unfamiliarity with another 37%.

Still, Democrats have to be pretty excited about these nums. We just have to hope that Cooper can be persuaded to take the plunge.

• NC-Sen: If Richard Burr wants to be re-elected, there’s one big problem he’s going to have to overcome: his constituents don’t seem to have any idea who he is. PPP finds that his approval ratings are only 35%. That sounds dire, but he’s actually on the plus-side of the ledger, with 32% disapproval. That leaves 33% who don’t know, which is huge considering that he’s been in office for more than four years now. They also run a head-to-head for Burr against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (who seems to have no intention to run); Burr wins 43-35.

• CA-10: The field in California’s 10th district to replace Ellen Tauscher in a special election seems to be taking shape. As expected, the district’s two heavyweights, state senator Mark DeSaulnier and assemblyman Tom Torlakson (who recently swapped seats because of term limits), are jockeying for position. (Politico suggests several other possible Dems include assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, and Santa Monica city councilor and Kennedy clan member Bobby Shriver, who’s interested despite currently being about 400 miles outside the district.) While Obama won the district 65-33, the GOP isn’t going down without a fight; their possible candidates include San Ramon mayor Abram Wilson and former 49er Bret Jones.

• CT-Sen: Chris Dodd, who already has enough egg on his face to make a big omelette, got even messier with his admission that he inserted the language that allowed payment of the AIG bonuses. Nevertheless, he told the Hartford Courant today that he’s not retiring and is still in the race for 2010.

• OK-05: Oklahoma City mayor Mick Cornett, a potential contender for the open seat being vacated by gubernatorial candidate Mary Fallin, was making the rounds on Capitol Hill today. Cornett, who lost in the primary to Fallin in 2006, is still officially undecided on the race. The Club for Growth has already endorsed former state rep. Kevin Calvey. Other possible GOPers in the race include Corporation Commissioners Jeff Cloud and Bob Anthony, state senators Todd Lamb and Glenn Coffee, and state rep. Mike Thompson.

• LA-02: The NRCC isn’t letting go of this one without at least some token efforts; NRCC leaders Pete Sessions and Mike Rogers, along with Charles Boustany, are hosting a lunchtime fundraiser for Joe Cao today.

The Associated Press:

North Carolina U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler said Monday he will not run for Senate in 2010, declining a chance to seek a seat in the upper chamber as Democrats try to expand their majority on Capitol Hill.

Shuler said he was flattered to have so many people ask him to challenge Republican Sen. Richard Burr.

“However, with our nation facing the most difficult economic times in generations, I feel my efforts are better utilized focusing on solutions to these challenges rather than campaigning across the state,” Shuler said in a statement.

While Shuler definitely would have brought some strengths to the table as a general election candidate in North Carolina, he’s certainly well to the right of most non-DINO Democrats in the Tar Heel state these days… and that could have given him some serious problems in a contested statewide primary. If this move frees up Attorney General Roy Cooper to take a closer look at the race — who would probably be a stronger candidate in the general election anyway — then this could be pretty good news. I’m keeping my fingers crossed.