Tag: NC-Sen

We’re going to try out a new feature for weekday afternoons here at Swing State Project: four or five links to various items that we want to get out there but don’t feel like investing a diary’s worth of effort on. Enjoy the bullet points! (We encourage you to add your own bullet points in the comments, and otherwise treat this as an open thread.)

• UT-Sen: Daily Kos polls the 2010 Utah Senate race, where the action appears to be in the primary, but Bob Bennett looks safe for another 6 years. Bennett beats David Leavitt 44-23 in the primary, and, in the general, manhandles Rep. Jim Matheson 55-32 and Jeopardy! champion Ken Jennings 57-21, not that we should expect either of them to run.

• OH-Sen: A third Dem has jumped into the primary field for the 2010 Senate race: state representative Tyrone Yates. He doesn’t have the stature of Fisher or Brunner, but as the only African-American and only Cincinnati-area candidate, he may well complicate things.

• WA-08: The first Dem challenger has announced, and it’s another wealthy ex-Microsoft executive, Suzan DelBene. Don’t look for her to have the field to herself this time, though.

• MN-Sen: In an indication that the Coleman camp has exhausted every possible legal argument that can win in court, he’s moved onto arguing that it was basically a tie so let’s just have a do-over election. Not the kind of thing that someone who has a hope of winning in court ever says.

• Census: The Congressional Black Caucus is pushing the White House to keep the Census within its portfolio even though reliable Dem Gary Locke will now be taking over at Commerce.

• Blogospheria: Blogger brainpower (including Jane Hamsher, Glenn Greenwald, Markos Moulitsas, and Nate Silver) and union bucks come together in the new Accountability Now PAC. The goal is to pressure (and where there’s a good target, primary) bad Dems and create more space for good Dems to maneuver on the left.

• RI-01: Republican state representative John Loughlin is strongly considering a suicide mission against challenge to Rep. Patrick Kennedy. Kennedy got 69% against no-names in his last two elections, but apparently his approval ratings are softening.

• HI-01: In another district where you might be surprised to know there’s an elected Republican, Honolulu city councilor Charles Djou has announced his candidacy for HI-01, which is expected to be vacated by Neil Abercrombie as he goes for governor. Djou claims the endorsement of every Republican in Hawaii’s legislature (all 7 of them).

• NC-Sen: Former state treasurer, and gubernatorial primary loser, Richard Moore won’t be getting involved in the Dem primary to take on Richard Burr in 2010. The field looks clearer for AG Roy Cooper.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (1/5-7, likely voters):

Roy Cooper (D): 43

Richard Burr (R-inc): 45

Richard Moore (D): 40

Richard Burr (R-inc): 46

(MoE: ±4%)

If you were to ask me, I’d point to Richard Burr as the Republicans’ most endangered incumbent Senator in 2010. He’s kind of a back-bench non-entity up for his first re-election, he made it into office in a strongly Republican year (2004) against an underwhelming opponent (Erskine Bowles), and North Carolina underwent a pretty dramatic blue shift in 2008, although that may dissipate a bit by 2010.

So it’s nice to have some polling data to support my intuition. Roy Cooper, North Carolina’s Attorney General who was just re-elected by a convincing margin, polls very well against Burr, losing by only two points. R2K also tests Richard Moore, the former Treasurer who lost the 2008 gubernatorial primary to then-Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue, who doesn’t poll quite as well (perhaps he’s still tarnished from that acrimonious primary). However, six points back from an incumbent two years out is still a fairly good place to be, too.

Burr’s favorables are only 47 favorable/46 unfavorable, while Cooper’s are 41/21 and Moore is at 37/27, which looks especially nice for Cooper. While media speculation tends to focus on Cooper, it’s not entirely sure whether Cooper will get into the race, and there are a few other top-tier Dems seemingly mulling the race (Rep. Brad Miller comes to mind, as well as Rep. Heath Shuler). But this race easily looks to be a Tossup with Cooper in it (and probably even with Moore or Miller instead).

A lot of things went under the radar the last couple days, I felt we needed a round up.  

Starting with the last outstanding race of the 2008 elections, MN-Sen.  After two days of going through the Franken challenges, (with the exception of a few Coleman challenges that were incidentally found in the mix) this is where the counting stands: http://senaterecount.startribu…

Of 411 ballots that have been reviewed so far, Coleman is +234 votes, Franken is +64 votes, and Other is +117.  Franken had a high success rate (around 17% by most estimates) which is higher than predictions have been.  It is hard to say how many of those challenges exactly Franken won, because the other category consists of votes Franken won, taking away from Coleman and votes that Franken lost, not moving toward Franken.  

There are around 4,000 withdrawn challenges that need to be counted and added to the SOS website tally.  Those are said to be reported when they are finished being counted.  There are an estimated 1,600 wrongfully rejected absentee ballots that are hung up in the Minnesota Supreme Court to be ruled on in the near future.  And an estimated 700 Coleman challenges to sort through over the coming days.  (Coleman may bring “duplicate ballots” to court.  They are contending not all the ballots counted during the recount had an original.  This would open a whole can of worms because both campaigns challenged 600 ballots total over this while some counties didn’t let them challenge ballots over this.)

The next race with news, FL-Sen.  Alex Sink is jumping through the hoops of a probable candidate.  Many will remember news reports of Mark Begich and Jeff Merkley doing exactly what sink did before becoming candidates:

Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, the only Democrat serving in Florida’s Cabinet, met recently in Washington with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez, the chamber’s point man for the 2010 election. She’s clearly the national party’s top choice to run for the seat to be vacated by Republican Sen. Mel Martinez.

Article found here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com…

If I had to make a prediction, I would assume Alex Sink waits until we hear what Jeb Bush decides about a senate race in Florida before announcing whether she plans to run for senate.  

Next on the line is KS-Sen.  Brownback is making his retirement from the senate official tomorrow.  Article found here: http://briefingroom.thehill.co…  

Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.) won’t seek reelection in 2010 and will explore a run for governor.

He plans to announce his retirement from the Senate on Thursday, reports CNN. Brownback joined the Senate in 1996, succeeding former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole (R). He has long been a supporter of term limits, and he had pledged to serve only two full terms.

As for NH-Sen:

while popular Gov. John Lynch (D) is also said to be looking into the race.

Here: http://www.rollcall.com/news/3… You need a a subscription for the article.  

I wouldn’t put much stock into a governor considering a senate race.  He will probably just fall back on running for governor.  I doubt Menendez can sweet talk him out of it.  

What do you guys think?  Also recent news I made a comment on but didn’t get much attention, Brad Miller pulled himself out of consideration from NC-Sen in 2010.  http://www.wral.com/news/state…

GOP Sen. Richard Burr holds North Carolina’s supposedly “cursed” Senate seat — one that has switched parties every time its been up for election starting from 1974 onward. That’s no guarantee that Burr won’t break the curse in 2010, but he certainly starts the cycle with a big target on his back. Who would you like to see run against him?

UPDATE by Crisitunity:

PPP (12/8-9, registered voters)

Roy Cooper (D): 39

Richard Burr (R-inc): 34

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Speak of the devil: PPP shows up with a poll of one of the likeliest matchups: Burr vs. Attorney General Roy Cooper. The news is very good, with Cooper holding a five-point lead (albeit with huge undecideds). Burr also sports a downright awful approve/disapprove at 32/31, while Cooper clocks in at 44/23.

After Kay Hagan utterly spanked Liddy Dole earlier this month, and North Carolina turned blue at the Presidential level for the first time since 1976, it’s no surprise that Democrats are painting a fat target on the back of North Carolina’s remaining GOP Senator — Richard Burr. One possible candidate who’s received a lot of buzz is state Attorney General Roy Cooper, but another potential candidate is 11th District Rep. Heath Shuler, who will be starting his second term in the House next year. Shuler is very much keeping the door open to a statewide bid:

U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler is not yet sworn into his second term, but some Democrats hope he sets his sights two years from now on a run for the Senate.

That election would pit Democratic nominee Shuler, a star quarterback at Swain County High School and the University of Tennessee, against U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, who played defensive back at Wake Forest.

Shuler said he has not ruled out a run for Senate, but wants to focus now on Congress.

“First and foremost, I am going back to Washington and work on the economy,” Shuler said. “At this point in time we need to focus on the economy.”

As a popular figure in his western, Appalachian district, Shuler would offer a lot of strengths as a candidate. As for holding his open House seat, our friends at Public Policy Polling are optimistic:

The immediate concern is whether a Shuler run would cost the Democrats a Congressional seat that they reclaimed for the first time in 16 years just one election ago, but I think there is a strong bench in that district.

John Snow represents a very Republican eight county state Senate district contained completely within the 11th District and won every single one of the counties in his reelection bid this year even as Barack Obama won just one of them.

Joe Sam Queen is the Senator for a similarly Republican district in the Mountains. He won four out of six counties this year in his reelection bid: the two counties he lost are in the 10th District while the ones he won are all within the 11th.

If Shuler ran the Democrats’ recruitment should start with those guys since it’s imperative the Democrats nominate someone who’s shown an ability to win outside Buncombe County.

SurveyUSA is out with a new round of North Carolina polls, and the results look pretty similar to other recent polls (10/30-11/2, likely voters, 10/18-20 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 50 (46)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 43 (45)

Chris Cole (L): 5 (5)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Bev Perdue (D): 48 (43)

Pat McCrory (R): 47 (46)

Mike Munger (L): 4 (7)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

McCain leads Obama by a single point here, 49-48, but turnout will determine it all. Among those who have already voted (57% of the sample), Hagan leads Dole by 58-39, Perdue leads McCrory by 55-41, and Obama leads McCain by 56-41.

A Hagan win seems like a safe bet right now (and how sweet that is, really), but the Presidential and Gubernatorial races seem set to come down to every last vote.

This is it.  It’s time for my final look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent.  So what are the competitive races?

Again, just to be clear, I don’t do predictions.  Every time I do, horrible things happen.  So I won’t even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner.  And with the election tomorrow, tiers no longer matter, so I’ll simply rank the competitive races where party control of the seat may switch.  All others are deemed safe seats, which now include all of the Tier II and III seats from last time.

See my previous mid-October diary to see what things have changed since my last update.  Previous rankings are in parentheses.

Tier I

1. Virginia (1): Former popular Governor Mark Warner (D) is still cruising.  Former unpopular former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) hasn’t even gotten above 35% in any poll taken since early September, and Warner cannot get below 55%.  Only God or the Devil can stop this one now, but still, no official predictions from me.

2. New Mexico (2): Rep. Tom Udall (D) is running against Rep. Steve Pearce (R).  Since October, Udall’s re-opened his massive lead after getting hit by attacks from conservative independent groups.  Pearce has not gotten above 42% since early September, while Udall has been consistently over the 50% mark at the same time.  The NRSC has basically conceded defeat in this race.

3. Colorado (3): Rep. Mark Udall (D) is Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin.  He’s facing off against former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R).  All the late October polling shows Udall ahead by double digits.  The NRSC finally pulled out of Colorado last week after doing a head fake.

4. New Hampshire (4): Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), who John Sununu (R) beat in 2002, is back for a rematch.  She has led Sununu in almost every single poll taken in 2008, and without some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day to help Sununu out this time around, Shaheen looks to be in good shape.  Though Sununu still has a significant cash on hand advantage, it hasn’t helped him.

5. Alaska (8): Conviction!  84-year-old Ted Stevens (R) was convicted on all 7 felony counts for not disclosing the gifts (over $250,000 worth) he got from oil company Veco Corp. last Monday.  Anchorage mayor Mark Begich (D), who had been in a very close race with Stevens, has now opened up a decent lead in the polls, turning what seemed to be a nailbiter into a more comfortable lead.  Something about voting for a convicted felon, I guess.  Still, Rasmussen’s poll has it as a single-digit race, so don’t count out Alaska’s unique brand of crazy just yet.

6. North Carolina (5): The polls have shown a complete reversal of fortune starting in August.  Kay Hagan (D) has been climbing steadily in the polls, while incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R) has been steadily falling.  So what do you do if you’re Dole?  Run an incredibly horrible attack ad calling your opponent, a Sunday school teacher, “godless”.  That’s the sign of a desperate and losing campaign, as four different polls taken in late October now show Hagan at or above the 50% mark.

7. Oregon (6): Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) is challenging incumbent Gordon Smith (R), and has been steadily gaining ground in the polls over the past month.  Every non-partisan poll taken in late October showed Merkley with some kind of lead.  Still, none of them showed him at 50% or above, so this one’s not a done deal yet.

8. Minnesota (7): Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election.  Comedian Al Franken got the DFL (basically the Democratic Party for Minnesota) nod.  The recent polling now shows a pure tossup, with some polls showing Franken in teh lead, and some polls showing Coleman leading.  But late-breaking news has a new lawsuit filed against Coleman alledging $75,000 being funneled to Coleman’s wife from a big GOP donor.

9. Georgia (9): Former state representative Jim Martin (D) is going up against Saxby Chambliss (R), who ousted Vietnam veteran and triple amputee Max Cleland (D) in 2002 by running a despicable ad blending the images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein into Cleland’s face, earning him the nickname “Shameless Saxby”.  Starting with the economic collapse, poll after poll showed a completely different race, with Martin only behind by a statistically insignificant margin.  However, they all still show Martin trailing.  Now, Georgia has a rule that the winner must get over 50% of the vote, and the Libertarian candidate may take enough away that nobody can get 50%, in which case it will go to a runoff in December.

10. Kentucky (10): Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) is now a top target of the Democrats.  Wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford (D) can afford to self-fund, and he’ll need to, with McConnell’s HUGE warchest of over $9 million.  In just the last month, the polls suddenly showed Lunsford gaining significant ground on McConnell, but the latest two polls show McConnell gaining ground again, getting over the 50% mark.

11. Mississippi-B (11): Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year’s Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, was previously the Congressman from MS-01.  Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) has kept it close in the polls until recently.  As with Kentucky, the latest two polls now show Wicker above 50%.

Democratic safe seats

Arkansas (Mark Pryor)

Delaware (Joe Biden)

Illinois (Dick Durbin)

Iowa (Tom Harkin)

Louisiana (Mary Landrieu)

Massachusetts (John Kerry)

Michigan (Carl Levin)

Montana (Max Baucus)

New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg)

Rhode Island (Jack Reed)

South Dakota (Tim Johnson)

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats

Alabama (Jeff Sessions)

Idaho (Jim Risch)

Kansas (Pat Roberts)

Maine (Susan Collins)

Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

Nebraska (Mike Johanns)

Oklahoma (James Inhofe)

South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)

Tennessee (Lamar Alexander)

Texas (John Cornyn)

Wyoming (Michael Enzi)

Wyoming (John Barrasso)

So there you have it, my final rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand with less than 24 hours to go.  We’ll see what happens tomorrow.

Public Policy Polling (10/31-11/2, likely voters, 10/25-26 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 51 (48)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 44 (45)

Christopher Cole (L): 3 (4)

(MoE: ±2.1%)

Kay Hagan has opened up a nice lead — one that is well outside of this poll’s miniscule margin of error, leading PPP’s Tom Jensen to declare that Dole’s “Godless Americans” attacks have “blown up in her face”. Good.

In a great sign for Hagan, she leads Dole by 56-41 among early voters (63% of the sample), while Obama leads McCain by 55-45 among those who have already cast a ballot. Obama is locked in a neck-and-neck race with McCain in this state (leading by only 50-49 overall), so Hagan’s strong early performance looks like it will be enough to carry her through election day. SSP is updating our rating of this race from Tossup to Lean Democratic.

Along the lines of our New Hampshire compendium of polls, there’s so much new North Carolina material out today that we’re just going to give it to you in condensed form. What are the takeaways? The governor’s race is still too close to call but may be shading toward Perdue, while on the Senate side, it’s time for the Republicans to start practicing saying “Senator Godless.”

Research 2000 for Daily Kos:

Hagan 50 (49), Dole 45 (45)

Perdue 49 (48), McCrory 44 (43)

CNN:

Hagan 53, Dole 44

Elon:

Hagan 44 (37), Dole 37 (35)

Perdue 40 (33), McCrory 40 (37)

Civitas (R):

Hagan 45 (44), Dole 43 (41)

Perdue 45 (43), McCrory 43 (43)

Rasmussen (10/29, likely voters, 10/8 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 52 (49)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 46 (44)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Rasmussen looks very good for Kay Hagan in the North Carolina senate race: six is the biggest lead she’s had in a Rasmussen poll, and there aren’t enough undecideds left for Dole to close the gap. Hagan’s favorables continue to climb (53-42) while Dole’s slide (46-50). The sample was taken yesterday, so it’s unclear whether the flap over the ‘godless’ ad had an effect one way or the other.

Mason-Dixon (10/22-24, likely voters, no trendlines):

Kay Hagan (D): 42

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 46

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Mason-Dixon also gives Dole 46, but that’s where the similarity stops. They say Hagan trails by 4, with lots of undecideds still on the table. Note the dates on this poll… this is part of the same plate of stale cookies as that Georgia poll that Mason-Dixon apparently sat on for a week. Oddly, despite Mason-Dixon’s focus on the south, this is their first poll of this race, and it’s the first poll by anyone in almost a month to give the edge to Dole.

UPDATE: One more North Carolina poll to throw on the heap, this time from National Journal. This one seems to confirm Rasmussen, right down to the 6-point spread.

National Journal (10/23-27, likely voters, no trendlines):

Kay Hagan (D): 43

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 37

(MoE: ±4.9%)