Tag: NC-Sen

September was a great month for Senate Democrats. Is started with news that John Warner was retiring, featured the endless saga of Larry Craig’s guilty plea to lewd behavior, saw another crucial GOP seat open up in Nebraska and was marked with recruitment coups with the candidacies of Mark Warner in VA and Jeanne Shaheen in NH. In fact, the only bad news Democrats are fearing now is that Bob Kerrey might end up taking a pass in Nebraska — but even there, the fat lady hasn’t yet sung.

All of this is really icing on the cake for Democrats, who already felt great before Labor Day. Not only is the GOP is defending 22 seats, and the Dems only 12, but the NRSC has been doing poorly in fundraising and recruitment, failing to move to target states beyond… the one state of Louisiana. Democrats, on the other hand, are expanding the map left and right: While they are huge underdogs in TN, KY, NM, TX, and ID, odds are they will at least put one of those in play (just like VA in 2006 and KY in 2004 became competitive only in the last stretch). And the most problematic second-tier seat is turning to be Alaska, where incumbent Ted Stevens is facing significant bribery allegations.

The coming weeks are likely to bring more news that will determine how some of these races shape up. Bob Kerrey’s decision is obviously what everyone is waiting for, but there are other important questions: Will Craig retire as he had promised? Will there be more open seats, with all eyes turned towards SD’s Tim Johnson, AK’s Stevens, and NM’s Pete Domenici? Will Democrats find candidates to run against Dole in NC, Domenici in NM, Stevens in AK, McConnell in KY? All of these races could end up on the map, but Democrats have to succeed in their recruitment efforts first.

The first 4 states are listed after the jump. For the full rankings, go here, to CampaignDiaries.com.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up 4-7 seats.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 5 seats, for a 56-44 majority.

Likely Takeover (1 Republican seat, 0 Democratic seats)

1. Virginia (Open seat; Previous Ranking: 3)

Virginia inaugurates the “Likely Takeover” category.  When John Warner announced he was retiring at the end of August, Virginia immediately became a top pick-up opportunity for Democrats. And events in September certainly didn’t help dispel the notion that this is their race to lose: Very popular former Governor Mark Warner entered the race on their behalf, while the GOP is showing every indication that it is heading towards a divisive primary between moderate Rep. Tom Davis and conservative former Governor Jim Gilmore. To make matters much worse for Republicans, a few polls taken this month show Warner with massive leads of about 25% or more against both Davis and Gilmore.

Republicans argue that Warner has never been fully tested, and that they can lower his ratings by finally going on the offensive against him. While this may be true, Democrats can rest in peace (for now) for two simple reasons: (1) Warner has a lot of room to give before being truly threatened given the massive nature of his lead, and (2) Warner will have plenty of time to re-introduce himself to voters and strengthen their good impression of him.

That said, Tom Davis could make the race more competitive. He represents Northern Virginia, the region that has been trended dramatically blue over the past few years. Any Democrat who wants to win in VA has to carry Fairfax and the neighboring counties overwhelmingly, and Davis could cut in Warner’s margins there. He first needs to win the GOP nomination then. If Republicans nominate their candidate through a primary, Davis has a good chance of winning. But if they opt to nominate him through a party convention, conservative activists could opt for the weaker Gilmore.

Lean Takeover (2 Republican Seats, 0 Democratic Seats)

2. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Previous ranking: 1)

A lot has changed in this race in the past month. At the beginning of September, the Democratic field was composed of three candidates who were hoping to take on Senator Sununu. A few weeks later, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen announced she would enter the race, setting up a rematch of the 2002 election. Two of the three Democrats already in the race (Marchand and Swett) withdrew, leaving Dartmouth Professor Jay Buckley as Shaheen’s sole primary opposition. Many grassroots activists are questioning the party’s rush to rally around Shaheen, a moderate politician who supported the war in 2003 and was not known for being particularly progressive during her terms as governor. But Shaheen is likely to coast to the nomination.

Polls throughout the summer showed Shaheen had Shaheen with gigantic leads averaging 20 points. That put Sununu in an even worse position than Santorum was in in 2006. How can an incumbent who is trailing by 20 points a year before the election possibly come back to win another term? But two polls taken shortly after Shaheen jumped in the race made Democrats a bit more confident. Shaheen only led by 5%. That is enough to make her the favorite (an incumbent in the low 40s rarely survives), but certainly not enough to count Sununu out.

Republicans argue that they beat Shaheen before, and they will use the same tactics against her in 2008. They see her record on taxes as particularly prone to attack. But Sununu barely edged Shaheen in 2002, at the height of Bush’s popularity. The GOP took a drubbing in New Hampshire in 2006, and the Republican brand looks even worse today — what fundamentals can Sununu rely on to come-back?

3. Colorado (Open; Previous ranking: 2)

This race has not made much news lately, probably because the basic story-line was settled months ago: Senator Allard retired, and both parties rallied around a candidate. Rep. Udall for Democrats, and former Rep. Shaffer for the GOP. Colorado has been voting for Democrats in open seat races in the past few years (the Salazar brothers in 2004, Governor Ritter in 2006), and have to be considered slightly favored here again. A recent poll commissioned by the Shaffer campaign gave Udall a 5-point lead. That certainly shows the state could still end up going for Republicans, but the poll was a partisan one, so it should be taken with a big grain of salt. This race will certainly shift around on the basis of future polls and campaign developments, but for now it is remarkably static.

Toss-up (4 R, 1 D)

4. Nebraska (Open; Last Ranking: 8)

Chuck Hagel announced his retirement last week, setting up what many people view as the marquee race of the 2008 cycle: former Republican Governor Mike Johanns versus former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey. Both men were rumored to be very interested in the race, but for now only Johanns has announced his candidacy. Recent reports indicate that Kerrey might be leaning against a run after all!

This race’s outlook will change dramatically in the coming days, as Kerrey is likely to announce his intentions very soon. If he does run, the race might edge into “lean takeover” territory — given Kerrey’s popularity in the state. If he ends up staying out of it, this race would drop down significantly, Johanns would be the favorite even if Omaha’s Democratic Mayor Fahey agrees to jump in. Fahey would keep the race competitive, but he would find it difficult to overcome the state’s overwhelming Republican lean, especially in a presidential year.

The second hope Democrats harbor is that Johanns will be stuck in a divisive primary. The state’s Attorney General Bruning had been planning to run against Chuck Hagel in the primary, and he is showing no intention of backing down now that Johanns is in the race. Former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub entered the race for a few days, ran ads, and then decided to withdraw, setting up a two-way primary. This could prove an opening for the Democratic candidate (either Kerrey or Fahey) who would have time to introduce himself to voters and define the terms of the campaign.

Full Rankings are available here, with full detailed rankings of all 34 races!

In case you missed it, Public Policy Polling released a new poll (warning: PDF) today of the North Carolina Senate race, pitting Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole against several hypothetical Democratic challengers: state Rep. Grier Martin, state Sen. Kay Hagan, and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall.  But wait–this isn’t any ordinary poll; it’s an informed vote poll, where respondents (likely voters, in this case) hear a brief one-line bio about the lesser known-candidates:

“To compensate for the extremely low name recognition of state legislators, we added a short description of Martin and Hagan to the survey,” explained Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

Martin was described as a “37 year-old two-term legislator” and “veteran of the War in Afghanistan,” while Hagan was a “five-term State Senator” and “chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee.”

So take it with the appropriate grain of salt that Dole isn’t doing this badly against Grier Martin (at least, not yet):

Grier Martin (D): 37%
Elizabeth Dole (R): 43%

Kay Hagan (D): 27%
Elizabeth Dole (R): 43%

Elaine Marshall (D): 35%
Elizabeth Dole (R): 46%

MoE: ±4.2%

So who is Grier Martin?  Back in February, SSP diarist blue south gave us his profile:

Grier Martin is a relative newcomer to politics.  He is 37, and was first elected to the NC House in 2004.  There are two very important details though.  First, in 2004 he won a very expensive race against an incumbent with a large amount of personal income in a district that leans Republican.  A huge upset.  Just as importantly, he actually has name ID across the state, due to the fact that his father, DG Martin was the Attorney General for many years.  He has also taken some interesting stands in the legislature, including voting against the budget one year and voting against the creation of a lottery.  Additionally, he has military credentials.  After 9/11 he volunteered for the Army, and spent 2003 in Afghanistan.

His name has been mentioned in the rumor mill as someone contemplating a run.  To be honest, after Brad Miller, he is my top choice.  He has a gorgeous family, including a young daughter.  His age puts him square into the only age bracket that showed support for Dole in the last poll.  And, he is the type of candidate that has a background that would allow him to take progressive positions without being called a no good dirty, Washington, liberal.

Grier sounds like an interesting option now that a Brad Miller candidacy is off the table.  Like the poll suggests: he has the right profile.

Paging Chuck Schumer to the multi-colored courtesy phone, please.  Paging Chuck Schumer…

BlueNC has more.

Democratic U.S. Rep. Brad Miller has stepped up his exploratory effort in recent days as he nears a self-imposed deadline of July 1 to decide whether to take on Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole in 2008.

Last week, Miller and his wife, Esther Hall, met for more than an hour with New York Sen. Charles Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

All of this is from the News and Observer

This was added to in this morning’s paper…

This morning’s version of the same story adds a few good quotes from people who want Brad to run and people who don’t.

State Representative Deborah Ross (who could end up becoming our first ever Female Speaker in the next few years) said that she thinks Brad will run if he can be assured of the money.

His treasurer from his past campaigns thinks that he shouldn’t run, because he is building a great career in the House.  I disagree with her conclusion, but it is very true that Brad is doing a great job in the House.

In a conversation about money, Brad added:

“I am convinced if I make the decision to run it will be one of the top targeted races nationally by the Senatorial Committee and by Democratic constituency groups,” he said. “The support is there for a serious run.”

For those worried about such things, the paper lists four potential challengers to save Brad’s House Seat should he run.  I know 2 of them, one of whom would be an amazing candidate for this.  His website is here.

All of this is very important, because we must get rid of Liddy Dole.  You can find out more about her record by checking out the Draft Brad site.  Or you can just click on my name and sort through all my diaries on her.

Brad is very close to making a decision, and we have a fantastic opportunity to convince him to run.  I hope you will join me and send him a very small donation (even as little as 2 dollars) to show that you still want him to run, and would be there volunteering, phone calling, and blog swarming on his behalf.

On national maps North Carolina is often colored red.  We havent voted for a Democrat for the White House since Carter in 1976.  But that might be changing.

In a new poll by Public Policy Polling, when asked who they would vote for in the 2008 Presidential election, 42 percent of voters said a Republican.  But, in a huge surprise, 47 percent of voters said a Democrat.

PPP has been doing a lot of tracking polls lately, and I have a large amount of respect for them and their sister company, On Point Polling.  This poll was done with 606 voters.  The way PPP does their sampling, these were people who will be voting in 2008.

This poll (PDF) has some incredibly interesting results within it.  The question that will get the most media attention is the matchup question between Elizabeth Dole and Roy Cooper.  In that race, Dole is under 50 percent, and has a lead of 46 to 36.  That means that so far Dole has polled at 45 and 44 against 2 Democratic Congressman, 40 percent against our governor, and 46 percent against our Attorney General.

She is in a ton of trouble.

Her approval rating is plus 4, 45% to 41%.  President Bush’s numbers are also ugly, with a negative 11 rating.

The poll also asked if people would be more or less likely to vote Democratic based upon specific nominees.  Surprisingly for me, Hillary does a lot better on this question that I would have expected.  The details though are not all that surprising.  Obama would give huge motivation to black voters, and Hillary is hated by Republicans.  Nothing really shocking.

This poll also contained some very interesting crosstabs.  For instance, we are home to both Ft Bragg and Camp Lejeune, among other bases.  Both of these massive installations are within the 910 area code.  In that area code, Bush’s approval rating is 47 to 45 (plus 2).  On the generic ballot, a Democratic Presidential candidate leads 46 to 42.  The best part is that those numbers are before we start showing ads like this for the third Senator from Virginia.

In addition to this poll, a new poll by Conservative, Non Partisan Republican think tank Civitas shows even worse results for Bush and national Republicans.  I take all of their results with a grain of salt, but their poll showed Bush with a 39 percent approval rating, with 57 percent disapproving (43% strongly disapprove).  Even more telling is their question about the surge strategy:

Do you think the President’s new strategy in Iraq along with the troop surge is:
Improving the Situation 19%
Not making much difference 34%
Making things worse 36%

That is right.  In “Red” North Carolina, the most military friendly state in the country, 70% of voters think the surge is either useless or counterproductive.

Dole has been an unapologetic supporter of Bush.  In fact, in February there was an article in the Charlotte Observer talking about how she was taking a stand separate from most of her fellow NC Republicans to support the surge loudly in public.  Sadly, I cant find that article without paying big bucks for it.

Add on top of all of these polls an article written by Stuart Rothenberg prior to these results about Texas and North Carolina.

In contrast, Democrats have won the past four gubernatorial elections in North Carolina, and the party last won a Senate seat in 1998. While Republicans hold all of the most high-profile statewide offices in Texas, Democrats hold the top offices in North Carolina. And while Republicans hold both chambers of the Texas state Legislature, Democrats have solid majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina Legislature.
:::
On the other hand, Rep. Brad Miller and North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper reportedly are considering a challenge to Dole, and Tar Heel State Democrats are in a far stronger position to recruit a candidate against the Republican Senator.
:::
Dole isn’t much more vulnerable until Democrats get a formidable candidate in the race, but if and when they do, the state’s dynamics, at the very least, offer them a scenario for success.

North Carolina, therefore, bears watching.

In light of all the polling that we have seen in this race, I would say Rothenberg’s analysis is actually pessimistic.  But, he is obviously correct in saying that we need a top tier challenger.  I personally want to see Brad Miller take up the banner.  But no matter who runs she is vulnerable.

For more info on this race, and on a Brad candidacy please visit this website.

I got some press for the Draft Brad website yesterday.  It is only online for now, but its a start.

As always, crossposted at BlueNC and DailyKos.

One of the most commonly asked questions about Brad Miller running for Senate against Elizabeth Dole is from people who dont think Brad Miller can win statewide. 

How can I answer this question?

I could wax poetic about Brad’s abilities to appeal to voters statewide.  Or I could tell you things about him that make me think that he can talk to rural voters and voters in a big city.

And then you could give me all the reasons you disagree.  But where would that leave us?

The only way I can think of objectively answering this is to offer an analysis of Brad’s past election results.  For reference I have included a map of Brad’s district.  This district was drawn for a Democrat to win, but it is only slightly Democratic.  Cook has its PVI as D+2.

As you can see, NC-13 contains all of Caswell and Person counties.  It also encompasses large portions of Granville and Rockingham counties.  All 4 of these counties are rather rural, and Republican.  Although the most Republican areas of the county are excluded from NC-13, they do not add up to many people.  These 4 counties are especially important because their rural nature means they are very similar to other areas throughout the state that Brad must be competitive in to beat Dole.

To the numbers.

For this analysis, I looked at Brad’s results in these 4 counties in 2002 compared to the numbers from the Bowles v Dole race in 2002, and Brad’s results in 2004 compared to both Bowles and Kerry/Edwards.

2002
Granville County
Brad Miller 4,236
Carolyn Grant 3,759

Erskine Bowles 6,146
Elizabeth Dole 5,511

Person County
Brad Miller 5,054
Carolyn Grant 4,589

Erskine Bowles 4,444
Elizabeth Dole 5,873

Caswell County
Brad Miller 4,113
Carolyn Grant 2,320

Erskine Bowles 3,615
Elizabeth Dole 3,049

Rockingham County
Brad Miller 12,005
Carolyn Grant 9,965

Erskine Bowles 12,062
Elizabeth Dole 13,899

2004
Granville County
Brad Miller 7,184
Virginia Johnson 5,955

Erskine Bowles 9,806
Richard Burr 8,447

George Bush 9,491
John Kerry 9,057

Person County
Brad Miller 8,399
Virginia Johnson 6,291

Erskine Bowles 6,701
Richard Burr 8,212

George Bush 8,973
John Kerry 6,198

Caswell County
Brad Miller 5,737
Virginia Johnson 3,374

Erskine Bowles 4,737
Richard Burr 4,559

George Bush 4,868
John Kerry 4,539

Rockingham County
Brad Miller 16,580
Virginia Johnson 15,525

Erskine Bowles 15,435
Richard Burr 21,224

George Bush 22,840
John Kerry 14,430

So, what does that all mean?
Personally, I think the numbers speak for themselves.  In these 4 counties, the combined vote totals for 2002 show Brad winning by about 4800 votes.  Dole won those same counties by a little over 2000 votes.  In 2004, Brad won these 4 counties by 6800 votes.  Bowles lost them by 5800 and Kerry lost by almost 12,000 votes.

These are not tiny little swings.  Brad won his race by about the same percentage as Dole beat Bowles.  Yet, in these specific rural areas, he did even better Dole did.  Obviously the differences between all of these races is rather large.  Bowles v Dole garnered national attention, and was incredibly expensive.  By comparison, Brad spent under a million dollars in 2002 with his opponent spending about 400,000 dollars.

These details about the nature of these races can explain a lot of this.  However, to me these results show that Brad can win over rural voters.  In fact, I wont just say that Sherrod Brown proved you can win a swing state while being proud about your progressive values.  I will say that Brad himself has already proved that a progressive who doesnt hide from his record can win in rural North Carolina.

Now, I understand that many will not be convinced by these results.  Some will say that Brad cant win votes in rural areas until November 4th.  However, I hope that those that are unsure will find my collection of data convincing.  If you do, please think about sending 5 dollars to the draft page on ActBlue.

Earlier today, A former CEO of Qwest was found guilty of illegal stock trading.  He was convicted for illegally selling 52 million dollars in stock.

The conviction comes on 19 counts of insider trading.

This story has a great recap of the whole history of the story.

Why does this matter for Elizabeth Dole?  After all Joseph Nacchio gave to candidates of a few different ideologies.

He gave money to a few Democrats and a few Republicans.  But, there is a tiny little detail.

Since 1994 Mr Nacchio gave 10 contributions totaling $7,500 to various sources.

But, there is a tiny little detail.  Four of those eleven contributions were to Elizabeth Dole.  These contributions total $4,000.  That number doesnt include the extra $1000 that Qwest’s PAC gave to Dole in 2006.  It also does not include the $1000 that the wife of Mr Nacchio gave to Dole in 2001.

Although the media might try to spend it, it is very obvious that a convicted criminal has supported her more than any other candidate.  Of the 7500 dollars that he has given to politicians, he gave Elizabeth Dole 4 times more than any other candidate.

Now, I wont try to figure out why a CEO of a Colorado company that reports his address as being in either CO or NJ (depending on the day apparently).

What I will question is, Is Senator Dole proud of accepting money from modern day robber barons?

In 2002 Dole accepted $1000 from both Mr and Mrs Kenneth Lay  She also took $1028 from the Enron PAC during the 2002 cycle.

Abramoff could only be bothered to give $1000 to Dole.  Money she claims is being given to charity.

However, in 2006, while head of the NRSC, she refused to give the almost $400,000 from Abramoff and his associates to charity.

However, I did an extensive search of the FEC report filed by Elizabeth Dole in the first quarter of 2006.  I found nothing.  Not a single donation to any charity.  Just normal campaign amounts.

Today I am asking that she donate every penny received from this convicted felon to charity.  Additionally, we demand that some actual proof be given that the money from both Abramoff and Nacchio was indeed sent to charity.

We will not allow her to hide behind the facade of these donations being from 5 years ago.  The simple fact is that a criminal is a criminal.  We will not accept money from criminals to influence our Senator.

Give it back Senator Dole.  Give it Back.

Wow.  It has been a crazy few days in North Carolina.

It started Wednesday with a tiny little story saying that Rep. Brad Miller was thinking about running against Elizabeth Dole.  That was followed up by matching articles in the Charlotte Observer and Raleigh News & Observer on Thursday.

Later Thursday Public Policy Polling conducted a poll, which showed Brad behind Dole, but only 33 to 44.  While that poll is an amazing result, it shows a lot of room for improvement.  For starters, 26% of Democrats are currently undecided.

Friday saw this poll get a plethora of responses, and even got us into a tie for 10th most likely seat to flip over at the WaPo’s The Fix.

Before I start in with the pitch let me give you two reasons why I think Brad would win this race:

“I think she will be judged on her record as a politician in 2008 and not judged as a celebrity, as she was in 2002,” he said. “And she has simply been a down-the-line partisan Republican on every issue from Iraq to privatizing Social Security to opposing the minimum wage increase and supporting CAFTA [the Central America Free Trade Agreement].”

That is Brad from the Charlotte Observer Article.

“I think the advantage I’d have — and any Democrat would have — is I will never have to be briefed on which state I represent in the Senate.”

That is Brad from the Raleigh N&O Article.

One of the easiest ways for the media to measure support is to see how much money a candidate has raised.  The Obama campaign, even as it took in huge sums of money, attempted to upend this mindset by talking about the amount of people that gave money, and not how much money was given.

We are going to do the same thing.  I am asking each and every one of you to donate to the Draft Brad Miller movement.  But, I am not asking for us to raise a thousand or ten thousand dollars.  I am asking for donors.  I do not care if you give 2 dollars and 8 cents.  I would be thrilled if you gave 20.08 or even 200.80  However, we are all on limited budgets.

I am looking for donors.  I am looking for people to put their money where their mouth is and say, “I want Brad Miller to run for US Senate.”  I hope that everyone is able and willing to give 5 dollars to help convince Brad to run.  He needs to know that the netroots will do everything in our power to launch him into office.

Right now we are at 17 donors.  14 of those donations occured before Brad said he was even thinking about running.

By Monday morning I would like to see us at 50 donations.  I would also like to see us at 100 by the end of the week.  We can do this.  I would be much happier to see us at 100 donations with 800 dollars than I would be to see us at 2000 dollars and only 25 donors. 

Brad will need our help fundraising if he decides to run.  However, even he raises double what Jim Webb did in 2006 online, it will only be a small part of what he needs to win this seat.  He is still going to have to spend a large amount of time raising the funds that will be necessary to beat Dole.

BUT, there is one thing that money can not buy.  Committed Volunteers.  By giving 5 dollars you say to Brad, I believe in you, and I will do everything that I have the ability to do to help you out.  Your hours as a volunteer are worth much more than any amount of money you are legally allowed to give to campaigns.  Tell Brad that you are willing to spend them! 

For those of you who still dont believe Brad can win (as if the poll isnt convincing enough!), please stop by either this diary, or this one.  Thank You.

Let me close with another quote, from fellow blogger momaizo of BlueNC

Won’t it be nice to have a Senator that actually represents North Carolinians?

(From the diaries with minor editing. Should Brad Miller take the plunge and challenge Dole next year? – promoted by James L.)

Cross posted from Dailykos

On the heels of a quick scoop in the Charlotte Observer last night was a full length article in the Raleigh News & Observer this morning.  That story centered around Rep. Brad Miller (D) contemplating a run against Elizabeth Dole.

“I’m at least going to talk to folks in North Carolina and get a sense of what people are thinking,” Miller said Wednesday.

Following that, Public Policy Polling has released a matchup poll.

TO THE RESULTS!
Dole 44%
Miller 33%
Undecided 22%

Dole’s Job Approval numbers?
43 Approve
40 Dissaprove
Now with crosstabs (PDF!)
Numbers that can only improve:
Amongst Democrats Brad leads 48 to 26 with 26 undecided.  Considering Liddy’s -20 approval rating amongst Dems, this number should shoot up very quickly.
30% of African Americans are currently undecided, and 26% say Dole.  If Brad cant get above 75-90% support by election time I will literally eat my shoe.

Numbers that are already strong:
Dole is as about as high as can be expected amongst Republicans.  70-15.  She wont get much of a boost from her base.
Brad already leads amongst independents, 38-33

As for Brad, and his big decision:
Brad is enjoying his time in the US House, so this is a difficult decision for him:

“There is plenty enough for me to say grace over,” Miller said. “But there is no doubt it would offer a chance to be more involved in more issues.”

However, he had this to say:

“I don’t think it will be an easy race for anybody,” Miller said. “I think a Democrat can win that race. I think the advantage I’d have — and any Democrat would have — is I will never have to be briefed on which state I represent in the Senate.“

Later in the article, Senator Dole’s strategist had this to say: “When you have someone like Senator Dole, who enjoys broad popularity”  Oh really?  Im just gonna post a few tiny little “anecdotes” now:
In January she was at 36 approve and 36 dissaprove
In a February poll, she was up to 43 approve and 31 dissaprove.
In a DSCC poll she managed a lofty 49 approve to 46 dissaprove rating, which was matched by her reelect numbers:

Looking ahead to the next election for U.S. senator, will you vote to reelect Elizabeth Dole, consider voting for someone else, or vote to replace Elizabeth Dole with someone new?
Reelect Dole 35%
Consider someone else 26%
Replace 23%
Depends 9%
Not sure 7%

So, what can you do to turn up the heat?
You can give money here. 
You can contact the DSCC and ask them to help Brad! 
And, you can contat Brad by emailing: brad (at) bradmiller (dot) org

As always, crossposted at BlueNC, and kos.

On January 23rd I announced a movement to try and convince Brad Miller to run against Elizabeth Dole.  That led to my first reccomended diary on dailykos.  That thread (and my signature) has led to over $500 in donations to Brad.  While that may seem like a small amount in terms of what is needed to run for Senate (and it is), it is a sign to Brad that we want him to run, and that we think he can win.

Follow below, as I once again lay out the case for Brad.

First, Elizabeth Dole is Vulnerable.  If you dont believe me, here is my case:
She is below 50 percent in three different polls.  She is down to Easley.  She is under 50% against Etheridge.  And, her overall numbers are questionable at best.

She doesnt live in North Carolina.

At the beginning of this year she had under 250 thousand dollars in the bank.

She has been happily complicit in the Navy’s plan to steal land from family farmers, destroy one of the great bird refuges in the nation, and put our pilots’ lives at risk.

Next, Brad Miller is not only a great representative, he gets the netroots:
He has been blogging longer than I have.

He posts on other people’s threads.

He will be at YearlyKos (for the second time?)

Brad is part of the middle class.  Even while in Congress, where many people expand their wealth, Brad is worth between 60 and 260 thousand dollars.

He now has subpoena power, and is using it to do things like investigate Google on behalf of New Orleans.

Brad isnt a BlueDog.  He isnt a this, that or anything else.  He is a representative of his constiuents.  In fact, the only caucus he is a member of (as far as I know) is the one he founded, the Community College Caucus.

What else can I say…
Well, Brad was outspent in his last congressional race, but because his opponent was so loved, Brad won an overwhelming victory.

North Carolina is slowly trending Blue.  We now have a lead in the congressional delegation, and will be adding at least one seat to that lead in 2008.  But, more importantly, in 2008 in North Carolina we will elect our governor and council of state.  On the Democratic side we have two amazing candidates in the Lt Gov and State Treasurer.  The Republicans have two self financed wing nuts and a former judge who has sold himself to a man whose job is destroying the NCGOP from within.  To say that this will aid our turnout is an understatement.

In 2008, if Obama or Edwards wins the nomination, there will be a presidential campaign in North Carolina.  I cant stress enough how important a true 50-state strategy will be here.
More to the point about Brad, I believe that his strengths position him perfectly to unseat Dole.  North Carolina is in a state of transition right now.  We have a large number of people moving to the state from across the country.  While many of these people call themselves Republicans, they are often union friendly and middle class Republicans.  The type that have been increasingly voting for the Whitehouse type of candidate instead of the Chafee type.  The type of voter that supports raising the minimum wage, increasing health care, and doesnt appreciate corruption.

Elizabeth Dole has voted against the minimum wage at every oppurtunity.  She has voted against accountability on the Iraq War.  She doesnt support a change in our health care system.  She is a strong supporter of the Every Child Screwed Over act.  And, she is thrilled to take on the mantle of Jesse Helms.

On the other hand, Brad Miller has been one of the most consistent voices against the Iraq War.  He has used his time in the house to support the working class, to support people who arent asking for anything more than an oppurtunity to succeed through hard work.  He has been a strong voice for education.
Let me give you some quotes from Brad:

But if President Bush really listened to parents and teachers he would know already that without funding to close achievement gaps, No Child Left Behind is just one more mandatory test. His failure to provide the promised funding for education is leaving every child behind

I think Republicans know their party is in serious trouble over the failed policies in Iraq. But the Republicans in Congress have no plan except to give the president everything he wants with no strings attached. I hope at some point they can prevail upon President Bush to change policy.

Some of the interest group ratings for Congressman Miller (All from Project Vote Smart):

Never below 100% from NARAL or Planned Parenthood
He has never scored below 90% for the NAACP.
He was endorsed by EqualityNC in his NC legislature races.
While in Congress he has gotten ratings of 100, 95 and 100 from the NEA.  While in the NC Legislature he got ratings of 88 and 100 from the NCAE.
He has scored 95 percent or better from the League of Conservation Voters.
His scores from Union groups are consistently above 85%

To be honest, I am struggling to pull all of this together into one single sentence that sums up why I want Brad Miller to run for the Senate.  On every issue, Brad has a better position from my point of view.  Even if that wasnt true, Brad has taken stands on what he believes, while she has voted the Bush line without question.  To put it bluntly, I cant imagine anyone who is reading this (except the Republican lurkers) not understanding why Brad is a better choice for our country.  You might not agree that he can win, and I would be more than willing to argue that out, but replacing Dole with Miller would allow North Carolina to do a great service for our nation’s future. 

If all of this has convinced you…
I would ask that you think about donating.  If you are unwilling to do that, please contact the DSCC, and tell them why you believe in Brad Miller.
The letter that I sent to the DSCC about 2 weeks ago, when Senator Schumer asked for names, said this:

Brad Miller would be a great candidate to put forward against Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina.  The 2006 election cycle showed that candidates who understand the middle class can win no matter where they are.  From Red Montana to Purple Ohio we saw candidates with strong, progressive messages win.  Elizabeth Dole is the most vulnerable Republican currently running.  She is already having to beg for cash from her fellow Republican Senators.  We have a chance to put a nail in her coffin, while giving our party’s nominee a great shot at an extra 15 electoral votes.  I know that there has been an effort to run Mike Easley against her.  I also know that he has said no.  I would reccomend walking away from him.  We can win in the south with Democrats without acting like Republicans.  All it needs is a strong candidate with a good message.  Brad Miller understands the middle class.  He understands North Carolina.  If you convinced him to run he would  instantly become the favorite netroots candidate, ensuring hundreds of volunteers from across the country.  I hope you will consider him.

Crossposted at both BlueNC and dailykos.

This post is a continuation of my prior diary exploring where Elizabeth Dole lives.  In this diary we delve into the world of voter fraud, and wonder whether the Doles are separated or if they live together in Washington, DC?

Personally, I find it highly doubtful that Liddy’s marriage is on the rocks.  By all accounts their marriage is happy.  I haven’t ever seen any rumors to indicate that Bob’s endorsement of Viagra was meant for any woman other than Liddy (although she did just have hip replacement?)

Anyway, the question must be asked.  Are they even married?  Bob Dole has been registered to vote in Kansas for many years.  Elizabeth Dole was too for a few decades.  In 2001, her voter registration was changed to the state of North Carolina.  What is wrong with their marriage that they live in different states?  Are they separated?  Are they contemplating divorce?  If two people live in different states for over 6 years are they considered married?

This is important, because if they are still married, and they still live in the same house, then one of them is committing voter fraud.  If they are not living in the same house, then what does that say about their family values?

Let me give you a little quote from North Carolina law.  Recognizing, of course, that neither Bob nor Liddy would ask for this; would it be possible to end their marriage right now?  Well…

Marriages may be dissolved and the parties thereto divorced from the bonds of matrimony on the application of either party, if and when the husband and wife have lived separate and apart for one year, and the plaintiff or defendant in the suit for divorce has resided in the State for a period of six months.
::snip::
Whether there has been a resumption of marital relations during the period of separation shall be determined pursuant to G.S. 52_10.2.  Isolated incidents of sexual intercourse between the parties shall not toll the statutory period required for divorce predicated on separation of one year.

  The statute mentioned in that quote states that a resumption of marital status must be shown by “a totality of the circumstances.”

I highly doubt that living in different houses for 6 years is considered to be a totality of circumstances.

Now lets move on to tax law.  As all of you should know, a married couple has the ability to either file taxes jointly or separately.  Presumably, to file a joint return, you must live at the same address.  As recently as 1996 the Dole’s were still filing their taxes jointly.  I wonder which address they have chosen as their permanent address for tax purposes?

To be fair, they could very well be filing separately.  It might even make financial sense for them to do so.  But are they using the same address?  Or is Bob filing in Kansas and Liddy in North Carolina?  Or are they filing jointly in Washington, DC?  As mentioned in my prior post, both Liddy and Bob’s addresses on their various property deeds say Washington, DC.

I was unable to get a hold of their actual tax forms, but I would love to take a look.

Lets review the facts.
The Doles are registered to vote in two different states.
Both have the same address listed on their many deeds.
In the past they have filed taxes jointly, indicating they live in the same home.

But are they committing voter fraud?  In Kansas, election law only requires that a person reside in the state for more than 15 days before the election.  Dole could meet this requirement simply by using his house in Russell as a hotel for 2 weeks and would be fine.  But what about Liddy?

Election law in North Carolina requires a longer stay, one of 30 days, but it is also a little more detailed in its protection.  It says,

That place shall be considered the residence of a person in which that person’s habitation is fixed, and to which, whenever that person is absent, that person has the intention of returning.
::snip::
The establishment of a secondary residence by an elected official outside the district of the elected official shall not constitute prima facie evidence of a change of residence.

But, there is a very important distinction between a secondary residence and a permanent residence to which you plan on returning.

Now, I would not want to commit a felony, or even a misdemeanor, by saying that either Dole is committing voter fraud.  What I will say is that there are some very serious questions that we must ask.  The answers to these questions will give us proof that either the Doles are committing voter fraud, or they are in fact living in different states.

And, if none of the above has convinced you that something fishy is going on here, I submit this video put together by my friends at WNCNN.