Polls close in Indiana at 6pm Eastern and in North Carolina at 7:30pm Eastern (although some metropolitan areas may keep their polls open until 8:30), so there’s still plenty of time to post your predictions for tonight’s contests.
We ran through the races worth watching in these two states last week, but the contests that we’ll be following are:
Feel free to post your predictions for these races in the comments. Oh, and if you insist, you can give your presidential guesses as well. Have at it.
NC-Sen (D) by SurveyUSA (5/2-4, likely and actual voters, 4/29 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 43 (38)
Jim Neal (D): 18 (17)
Others: 13 (10)
Other/Undecided: 27 (35)
(MoE: ± 3.5%)
Beverly Purdue (D): 52 (45)
Richard Moore (D): 33 (36)
Dennis Nielsen: 2 (2)
Other/Undecided: 13 (16)
(MoE: ± 3.5%)
Pat McCrory (R): 38 (36)
Fred Smith (R): 32 (32)
Bob Orr (R): 9 (7)
Bill Graham (R): 8 (5)
Undecided: 12 (20)
(MoE: ± 4.9%)
Hagan and Perdue are poised to deliver blow-outs. McCrory vs. Smith is the only race in doubt here.
May is going to be an exciting month for political junkies. We’ve got a cornucopia of races to watch this month: two special elections, and a number of competitive House, Senate and Gubernatorial primaries.
Let’s take a look at the month ahead:
May 3: This Saturday, Louisiana voters will head to the polls in two congressional special elections:
We’ll find out on Saturday night if any of these attacks have made an impact. The most recent poll, though, shows Cazayoux with a nine point lead. SSP will be liveblogging the results, so be sure to check with us then. There will also be a special election to replace Bobby Jindal in LA-01, but this one should be a solid lock for the GOP.
May 6: While the eyes of the nation will be fixed on the Indiana and North Carolina presidential primaries, voters in these states will also be deciding a number of other hotly-contested primaries:
Republicans will also decide a primary for this office between Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and state Sen. Fred Smith (plus two also-rans). In the most recent SUSA poll, Smith was only four points behind the front-runner McCrory.
May 13: Another huge day for political watchers, with hot races in Mississippi and Nebraska.
May 20: There are four primaries in Kentucky and Oregon worth keeping an eye on.
On the GOP side, voters will choose between ’06 nominee and businessman Mike Erickson and former Gov. candidate Kevin Mannix.
There you have it. May will be a month chock full of races worth watching. SSP will aim to liveblog as many of these races as we can when the results come in.
On the heels of her statewide advertising blitz, Democrat Kay Hagan is putting some distance between her campaign and that of her primary opponent, Jim Neal, according to the latest SurveyUSA poll (4/19-21, likely voters, 4/5-7 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 38 (21)
Jim Neal (D): 16 (20)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
With more resources at her disposal than Neal, it would be a surprise for Neal to make up this lost ground over the next few weeks.
Rasmussen (4/10, likely voters):
Kay Hagan (D): 39%
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 52%Jim Neal (D): 37%
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 51%
(MoE: ±4.5%)
This campaign has yet to heat up, but considering that Neal and Hagan have no statewide profile (yet), this isn’t a bad place to start.
SurveyUSA polls the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate race (likely primary voters, 4/5-7, 3/8-10 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 21% (18%)
Jim Neal (D): 20% (21%)
Duskin Lassiter: 6% (6%)
Marcus Williams: 5% (7%)
Howard Staley: 4% (4%)
Other/Undecided: 45% (44%)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
Nothing terribly revealing here — primary voters are unfamiliar with both Hagan and Neal, but one would expect these numbers to settle out once the candidates ramp up their advertising efforts with four weeks to go until primary day.
Next up, NC-Gov (D):
Richard Moore (D): 40% (28%)
Beverly Perdue (D): 40% (44%)
Dennis Nielsen (D): 3% (3%)
Other/Undecided: 17% (25%)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
Finally, NC-Gov (R):
Bill Graham (R): 9% (16%)
Bob Orr (R): 10% (12%)
Pat McCrory (R): 38% (26%)
Fred Smith (R): 19% (18%)
Undecided: 25% (28%)
(MoE: ±5%)
If the Democratic race here is neck-and-neck between state Treasurer Richard Moore and Lt. Gov. Beverly Purdue, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory looks like the prohibitive favorite for the GOP nod.
As you might remember reading last week “on some political gossip Web site,” it was reported that State Senator Kay Hagan (D-Greensboro) was reconsidering a challenge to Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC). Today, Hagan announced she's officialy in the race and came out of the gate swinging:
“To make a difference in North Carolina, we need change in Washington,” Hagan said. “We need a Senator to make our voice heard. We need a Senator who will stand up, lead and make a difference. That's what I've done, and it's what I'm going to keep doing in Washington.”
“We need accountability to end the war in Iraq so we can re-invest those resources here at home. How can Washington reject health care for 123,000 North Carolina children, while continuing to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on this mismanaged war?” Hagan said. “Making those kinds of decisions is hard, but I know it can be done – because those are the kinds of fights I've led in the State Senate.”
Hagan joins businessman Jim Neal in the Democratic primary.
Two well-placed sources, independent of each other, have contacted the Swing State Project to let us know that NC State Senator Kay Hagan (D-Greensboro) has reconsidered her earlier decision and will challenge Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole.
Blue NC had picked up earlier rumors that Hagan might be back in from a local Democratic strategist:
Even before Jim Neal outed himself, Kay Hagan was looking at getting back in the U.S. Senate race. Now she’s getting more encouragement – from home and from Washington. Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro, had looked at running earlier. She pulled back because Senator Charles Schumer from New York, who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, was intent on recruiting Grier Martin. Martin eventually opted out.
Now Hagan is reconsidering. She’s being wooed by North Carolina Democrats – and by Schumer. The garrulous New Yorker’s first task was to eat crow with Hagan.
Public Policy Polling recently pegged Dole's approval at 44% with 41% disapproval. If our sources are correct, these numbers certainly suggest Hagan would have something to work with.
According to the good folks over at Blue NC, Grier Martin called to say that he’s passing on a challenge to Sen. Elizabeth Dole:
That leaves the race in the hands of little known fundraiser Jim Neal. While national Democrats have done a good job convincing themselves that second-tier candidates Jeff Merkley and Marty Chavez are really first-tier candidates, there’s no way to spin Neal’s candidacy in such a way.
For those keeping track at home, the following North Carolina Democrats have passed on the race:
* Gov. Mark Easley
* Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue
* Treasurer Richard Moore
* AG Roy Cooper
* Raleigh Mayor Charlie Meeker
* Congressman Brad Miller
* State Sen. Kay Hagan
* State Rep. Grier Martin
(Presumably, Congressmen Bob Etheridge, Mike McIntyre, and David Price are also not running)
Maybe Erskine Bowles is still availible.
While Elizabeth Dole has vulnerabilities and North Carolina has a fervent Democratic population, this latest recruitment failure signals that Dole is likely to get a pass this election. Neal may make the race competitive enough for Dole to have to pay attention to it, but her large warchest and sound campaigning skills should allow her to win re-election without a sweat.
Buried in Newsweek’s very recent interview with Idaho Governor Otter is this statement:
We’ve now got five Republicans [retiring or resigning], and I guess there’s a few more that may make a statement, from what [Senate Minority Leader] Mitch McConnell’s told me.
Full analysis at Campaign Diaries.
Otter plainly hints here at the possibility of more Republican seats opening up! But which could those be? At this point, few Senate watchers are expecting any, as most people on the retirement watch list have announced their intentions: John Warner and Chuck Hagel retired, and so did Pete Domenici who had been on this watch list since the beginning of the cycle. The reason his retirement caused such a surprise is that Domenici had started to raise money, leading to the assumption that he would run again.
The last senator who was facing persistent retirement rumors earlier in the year was Mississippi’s Cochran, but the conventional wisdom soon became that Cochran would run again (mostly because Cochran’s heir apparent, Rep. Pickering, announced he would leave Congress next year, which he presumably would not have done if Cochran had hinted at the possibility of the Senate seat opening up).
So who are those “few more” Republican who could still pull the plug on a re-election run? The first person that comes to mind, obviously, is Alaska’s Ted Stevens. Stevens is in the middle of an FBI investigation for alleged corruption, and the scandal has been picking up in recent weeks. Who knows what the investigation’s state will be a year from now. Stevens might even be indicted by then, which has got to worry Republicans who might be pressuring Stevens to step down.
This is the only obvious answer. Otter clearly used plural form, so who else remains? Could we have misjudged Cochran’s intentions? An open seat in Mississippi would be a huge opportunity for Democrats who have a strong candidate (Attorney General Moore). Two other faint possibilities are North Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole and Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander. Both senators faced some rumors they might call it quits early this year, but speculation quieted down as all signs were pointing towards both of them preparing a new run.
Check out these recently updated Senate Rankings for a take on where those races rank for now, and how much open seats there could dramatically expand the playing field.