Tag: NC-Sen

Public Policy Polling (5/8-10, North Carolina voters, 4/8-11 in parens):

Elaine Marshall (D): 42 (37)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (43)

Undecided: 15 (20)

Cal Cunningham (D): 39 (35)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 44 (43)

Undecided: 17 (22)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Interesting numbers out of North Carolina, showing both Democrats getting a boost after the first round of their primary battle. Both Marshall and Cunningham are still severely unknown at this point, underscoring just how much of a meekly-funded campaign the first round of this primary was. 66% have no opinion of Cunningham and 56% regard Marshall with a blank expression.

If the winner of this runoff can quickly marshal together some resources, this could turn out to be a race well worth watching.

AR-Sen (4/26, likely voters, 3/30 in parentheses):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 29 (36)

John Boozman (R): 57 (51)

Some other: 9 (6)

Not sure: 5 (7)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 30 (35)

Kim Hendren (R): 51 (51)

Some other: 11 (5)

Not sure: 8 (8)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 31 (36)

Gilbert Baker (R): 53 (51)

Some other: 12 (6)

Not sure: 4 (7)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 32 (36)

Curtis Coleman (R): 52 (48)

Some other: 8 (7)

Not sure: 7 (8)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 31 (35)

Jim Holt (R): 54 (51)

Some other: 6 (7)

Not sure: 9 (7)

Bill Halter (D): 31 (34)

John Boozman (R): 56 (48)

Some other: 7 (8)

Not sure: 7 (11)

Bill Halter (D): 33 (34)

Kim Hendren (R): 45 (42)

Some other: 13 (10)

Not sure: 9 (13)

Bill Halter (D): 33 (36)

Gilbert Baker (R): 48 (44)

Some other: 10 (7)

Not sure: 9 (12)

Bill Halter (D): 37 (37)

Curtis Coleman (R): 43 (40)

Some other: 11 (10)

Not sure: 9 (13)

Bill Halter (D): 31 (34)

Jim Holt (R): 49 (43)

Some other: 12 (9)

Not sure: 8 (14)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

AZ-Gov (4/27, likely voters, 4/16 in parentheses):

Terry Goddard (D): 40 (40)

Jan Brewer (R-inc): 48 (44)

Some other: 7 (9)

Not sure: 5 (6)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CO-Sen (5/3, likely voters, 4/5 in parentheses):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41 (41)

Jane Norton (R): 48 (46)

Some other: 5 (5)

Not sure: 6 (8)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41 (40)

Ken Buck (R): 48 (44)

Some other: 4 (3)

Not sure: 7 (12)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 42 (39)

Tom Wiens (R): 44 (45)

Some other: 5 (4)

Not sure: 9 (12)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 39 (38)

Jane Norton (R): 46 (49)

Some other: 6 (5)

Not sure: 8 (8)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 40 (37)

Ken Buck (R): 45 (45)

Some other: 5 (4)

Not sure: 11 (13)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 40 (38)

Tom Wiens (R): 45 (45)

Some other: 4 (6)

Not sure: 11 (11)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CT-Gov (5/4, likely voters, 4/1 in parentheses):

Ned Lamont (D): 42 (37)

Thomas Foley (R): 35 (44)

Some other: 11 (7)

Not sure: 13 (13)

Ned Lamont (D): 48 (41)

Michael Fedele (R): 28 (38)

Some other: 9 (9)

Not sure: 15 (12)

Dan Malloy (D): 38 (35)

Thomas Foley (R): 35 (44)

Some other: 11 (8)

Not sure: 16 (14)

Dan Malloy (D): 44 (40)

Michael Fedele (R): 27 (37)

Some other: 10 (7)

Not sure: 20 (16)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CT-Sen (5/4, likely voters, 4/7 in parentheses):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 52 (55)

Linda McMahon (R): 39 (35)

Some other: 6 (3)

Not sure: 4 (6)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 55 (52)

Rob Simmons (R): 32 (38)

Some other: 5 (4)

Not sure: 8 (6)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 54 (58)

Peter Schiff (R): 29 (32)

Some other: 6 (4)

Not sure: 11 (6)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

DE-Sen (4/29, likely voters, 2/22 in parentheses):

Chris Coons (D): 32 (32)

Mike Castle (R): 55 (53)

Some other: 7 (8)

Not sure: 7 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

FL-Sen (5/3, likely voters, 4/21 in parentheses):

Kendrick Meek (D): 17 (22)

Marco Rubio (R): 34 (37)

Charlie Crist (I): 38 (30)

Not sure: 11 (11)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

GA-Gov (4/28, likely voters, 3/17 in parentheses):

Roy Barnes (D): 43 (41)

John Oxendine (R): 45 (41)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 6 (11)

Roy Barnes (D): 39 (40)

Nathan Deal (R): 46 (43)

Some other: 7 (5)

Not sure: 8 (13)

Roy Barnes (D): 41 (39)

Karen Handel (R): 42 (42)

Some other: 7 (5)

Not sure: 10 (14)

Roy Barnes (D): 42 (40)

Eric Johnson (R): 37 (38)

Some other: 8 (6)

Not sure: 13 (16)

Thurbert Baker (D): 34

John Oxendine (R): 44

Some other: 9

Not sure: 13

Thurbert Baker (D): 31

Nathan Deal (R): 47

Some other: 9

Not sure: 13

Thurbert Baker (D): 36

Karen Handel (R): 44

Some other: 5

Not sure: 15

Thurbert Baker (D): 35

Eric Johnson (R): 38

Some other: 9

Not sure: 18

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IA-Gov (4/29, likely voters, 3/17 in parentheses):

Chet Culver (D-inc): 38 (36)

Terry Branstad (R): 53 (52)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 3 (6)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 41 (40)

Bob Vander Plaats (R): 45 (42)

Some other: 9 (8)

Not sure: 5 (11)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 43 (40)

Rod Roberts (R): 41 (38)

Some other: 9 (10)

Not sure: 7 (13)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IA-Sen (4/29, likely voters, 3/17 in parentheses):

Roxanne Conlin (D): 40 (36)

Charles Grassley (R-inc): 53 (55)

Some other: 3 (4)

Not sure: 4 (5)

Bob Krause (D): 31 (31)

Charles Grassley (R-inc): 57 (57)

Some other: 4 (4)

Not sure: 8 (8)

Tom Fiegen (D): 30 (28)

Charles Grassley (R-inc): 57 (57)

Some other: 6 (7)

Not sure: 7 (9)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IL-Gov (4/28, likely voters, 4/5 in parentheses):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 38 (38)

Bill Brady (R): 45 (45)

Some other: 5 (7)

Not sure: 11 (10)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IL-Sen (4/28, likely voters, 3/ in parentheses):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38 (37)

Mark Kirk (R): 46 (41)

Some other: 5 (8)

Not sure: 12 (13)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IN-Sen (5/5-6, likely voters, 4/13-14 in parentheses):

Brad Ellsworth (D): 36 (33)

Dan Coats (R): 51 (54)

Some other: 6 (5)

Not sure: 8 (9)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

KY-Sen (4/28, likely voters, 3/31 in parentheses):

Jack Conway (D): 38 (36)

Rand Paul (R): 47 (50)

Some other: 4 (3)

Not sure: 10 (11)

Jack Conway (D): 38 (32)

Trey Grayson (R): 43 (52)

Some other: 8 (5)

Not sure: 12 (11)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 32 (37)

Rand Paul (R): 48 (52)

Some other: 8 (3)

Not sure: 12 (8)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 31 (33)

Trey Grayson (R): 45 (53)

Some other: 10 (5)

Not sure: 13 (9)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MI-Gov (D primary) (4/22, likely voters, 3/24 in parentheses):

Andy Dillon (D): 13 (12)

Virg Bernero (D): 12 (8)

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 9 (10)

Some other: 15 (17)

Not sure: 51 (53)

(MoE: ±6%)

MI-Gov (R primary) (4/22, likely voters, 3/24 in parentheses):

Peter Hoekstra (R): 28 (27)

Rick Snyder (R): 14 (18)

Mike Cox (R): 13 (13)

Mike Bouchard (R): 9 (6)

Some other: 5 (5)

Not sure: 32 (32)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MO-Sen (5/3, likely voters, 3/9 in parentheses):

Robin Carnahan (D): 42 (41)

Roy Blunt (R): 50 (47)

Some other: 4 (4)

Not sure: 4 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NC-Sen (5/5, likely voters, 4/19 in parentheses):

Elaine Marshall (D): 40 (32)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 48 (50)

Some other: 3 (6)

Not sure: 9 (12)

Cal Cunningham (D): 37 (31)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 50 (53)

Some other: 3 (4)

Not sure: 10 (13)

(MoE: ±3%)

NC-Sen (D runoff) (5/5, likely voters, no trendlines):

Elaine Marshall (D): 42

Cal Cunningham (D): 37

Some other: 4

Not sure: 17

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-AL (4/20, likely voters, 3/23 in parentheses):

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 45 (44)

Rick Berg (R): 49 (51)

Some other: 2 (1)

Not sure: 4 (4)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-Sen (4/20, likely voters, 3/23 in parentheses):

Tracy Potter (D): 24 (25)

John Hoeven (R): 69 (68)

Some other: 2 (2)

Not sure: 5 (5)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NV-Gov (4/27, likely voters, 3/31 in parentheses):

Rory Reid (D): 47 (43)

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 37 (45)

Some other: 12 (8)

Not sure: 3 (4)

Rory Reid (D): 35 (34)

Brian Sandoval (R): 53 (55)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 5 (4)

Rory Reid (D): 39 (38)

Mike Montandon (R): 45 (45)

Some other: 9 (9)

Not sure: 8 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NV-Sen (4/27, likely voters, 3/31 in parentheses):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (39)

Sue Lowden (R): 52 (54)

Some other: 6 (4)

Not sure: 3 (2)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 41 (42)

Danny Tarkanian (R): 51 (49)

Some other: 4 (6)

Not sure: 4 (2)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (40)

Sharron Angle (R): 48 (51)

Some other: 7 (6)

Not sure: 4 (3)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NY-Gov (4/27, likely voters, 3/29 in parentheses):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 56 (52)

Rick Lazio (R): 24 (29)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 14 (13)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 50 (50)

Steve Levy (R): 27 (26)

Some other: 6 (7)

Not sure: 17 (17)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 55 (51)

Carl Paladino (R): 25 (28)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 14 (15)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OH-Gov (5/5, likely voters, 3/30 in parentheses):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 45 (45)

John Kasich (R): 46 (46)

Some other: 3 (2)

Not sure: 6 (7)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OH-Sen (5/5, likely voters, 3/30 in parentheses):

Lee Fisher (D): 43 (38)

Rob Portman (R): 42 (43)

Some other: 4 (4)

Not sure: 11 (14)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OR-Gov (4/26, likely voters, 2/17 in parentheses):

John Kitzhaber (D): 41 (42)

Chris Dudley (R): 41 (36)

Some other: 6 (7)

Not sure: 13 (15)

John Kitzhaber (D): 48 (42)

Allen Alley (R): 33 (34)

Some other: 6 (8)

Not sure: 13 (16)

John Kitzhaber (D): 50 (40)

John Lim (R): 34 (38)

Some other: 5 (8)

Not sure: 12 (14)

Bill Bradbury (D): 40 (39)

Chris Dudley (R): 40 (36)

Some other: 6 (7)

Not sure: 13 (17)

Bill Bradbury (D): 43 (41)

Allen Alley (R): 34 (35)

Some other: 7 (9)

Not sure: 16 (16)

Bill Bradbury (D): 44 (38)

John Lim (R): 32 (35)

Some other: 9 (9)

Not sure: 15 (17)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Gov (D primary) (5/6, likely voters, no trendlines):

Dan Onorato (D): 34

Jack Wagner (D): 17

Anthony Williams (D): 17

Joe Hoeffel (D): 9

Some other: 6

Not sure: 17

(MoE: ±5%)

PA-Sen (5/6, likely voters, 4/12 in parentheses):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 38 (40)

Pat Toomey (R): 50 (50)

Some other: 7 (4)

Not sure: 6 (6)

Joe Sestak (D): 40 (36)

Pat Toomey (R): 42 (47)

Some other: 10 (5)

Not sure: 9 (12)

(MoE: ±3%)

PA-Sen (D primary) (5/6, likely voters, 4/12 in parentheses):

Joe Sestak (D): 47 (42)

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 42 (44)

Some other: 3 (4)

Not sure: 8 (10)

(MoE: ±5%)

RI-Gov (4/21, likely voters, 3/25 in parentheses):

Frank Caprio (D): 33 (28)

John Robitaille (R): 21 (22)

Lincoln Chafee (I): 33 (39)

Not sure: 13 (11)

Patrick Lynch (D): 24 (22)

John Robitaille (R): 26 (26)

Lincoln Chafee (I): 35 (37)

Not sure: 15 (15)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

SD-AL (4/21, likely voters, 3/25 in parentheses):

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 45 (44)

Chris Nelson (R): 41 (42)

Some other: 5 (6)

Not sure: 9 (9)

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 50 (46)

Kristi Noem (R): 35 (35)

Some other: 5 (8)

Not sure: 9 (10)

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 48 (45)

Blake Curd (R): 36 (33)

Some other: 7 (8)

Not sure: 9 (14)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

SD-Gov (4/21, likely voters, 3/25 in parentheses):

Scott Heidepriem (D): 33 (32)

Dennis Daugaard (R): 53 (49)

Some other: 5 (6)

Not sure: 9 (13)

Scott Heidepriem (D): 41 (37)

Dave Knudson (R): 41 (32)

Some other: 9 (13)

Not sure: 10 (19)

Scott Heidepriem (D): 46 (39)

Gordon Howie (R): 31 (34)

Some other: 8 (9)

Not sure: 14 (17)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

WA-Sen (5/4, likely voters, 4/6 in parentheses):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 48 (48)

Dino Rossi (R): 46 (46)

Some other: 2 (3)

Not sure: 3 (4)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 52 (48)

Don Benton (R): 38 (40)

Some other: 3 (4)

Not sure: 7 (8)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 51 (47)

Clint Didier (R): 36 (37)

Some other: 4 (5)

Not sure: 8 (11)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 49 (45)

Paul Akers (R): 35 (37)

Some other: 6 (5)

Not sure: 10 (13)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

• CA-Sen: Hell hath no fury like a teabagger scorned, and now the swarm is turning its anger on the queen bee. Even Sarah Palin’s popularity apparently has limits, as she’s getting all sorts of blowback (at her Facebook page, mostly) from California’s right-wingers upset over her endorsement of corporate GOPer Carly Fiorina instead of true believer Chuck DeVore.

• KY-Sen: Research 2000, on behalf of various local news outlets, polled the primaries in Kentucky, finding, in the Democratic field, Dan Mongiardo leading Jack Conway 39-32 (with 12 opting for one of the three minor candidates). On the GOP side, Rand Paul leads Trey Grayson 44-32. The same poll has perilously low approvals for Majority leader Mitch McConnell, down to 41/49. And guess who’s taking notice? Democratic state Auditor Crit Luallen — one of our commenters, nrimmer, reports that she’s sending out fundraising e-mails raising the possibility of a 2014 challenge.

Dan Mongiardo is also out with an internal poll, in the wake of the Conway camp releasing one with Conway in the lead. Mongo’s poll, taken by Garin Hart Yang, has him up 46-34 (although he can’t be psyched about the trendlines; his internal poll from February had him up 43-25). One other note from this race: an Iowa-based group, American Future Fund, is running an anti-Paul ad on TV. AFF claims to be about “free market views,” so I’m not sure what their beef with Paul is (you don’t get much more free market than that), but at any rate, their ad features a chiming cuckoo clock in it, which nicely underscores Paul’s, um, cuckoo-ness.

• NC-Sen: Third-place finisher Kenneth Lewis finds himself in something of the kingmaker’s seat, after preventing Elaine Marshall or Cal Cunningham from avoiding a runoff in the Democratic primary. Lewis says he’s not sure who he’ll endorse or even if he will endorse, but both camps are, naturally, reaching out to him and his supporters (including Mel Watt and Harvey Gantt).

• PA-Sen/PA-Gov (pdf): There’s clearly a lot of day-to-day volatility in the Muhlenberg/Morning Call daily tracker of the Dem primaries, but you can’t deny this is a blockbuster result: Joe Sestak has drawn even with Arlen Specter for the first time, as they tie at 43-all today. Maybe that ad with all those purdy pictures of him with George Bush and Sarah Palin is having the desired effect? On the gubernatorial side, Dan Onorato is at 35, Joe Hoeffel at 11, Anthony Williams at 10, and Jack Wagner at 8.

• UT-Sen: Tomorrow may well be the end of the line for Bob Bennett, the three-term Senator from Utah. He’s poised to get kicked to the curb at tomorrow’s nominating convention by his state’s far-right activist base for the crime of actually trying to legislate. Bennett’s getting some last-minute hits from robocalls from the Gun Owners of America, but that’s pretty tame compared with some of the other over-the-top attacks being leveled at other candidates (like Mike Lee as Hitler?). Michael Steele, wary of treading on the base’s toes in a no-win situation, has announced his staying neutral in the nominating process.

• MA-Gov: Looks like you don’t want to get on Tim Cahill’s bad side (or maybe more accurately, on the bad side of media consultant John Weaver, who’s also working on the oddball campaigns of Rick Snyder in Michigan and Steve Levy in New York). After a hard hit from the RGA, the Cahill camp retaliated with a web video pegging RGA chair Haley Barbour as a Confederate sympathizer and corrupt lobbyist. The RGA fired back saying the Cahill camp had responded like “scalded apes” (strange metaphor, but it has a certain evocative charm).

• OR-Gov: That SurveyUSA poll that had Republican primary results that was leaked a few days ago is fully available now, and it also contains Democratic primary results. John Kitzhaber seems poised to roll over Bill Bradbury; he leads 54-16. (As reported earlier, Chris Dudley led on the GOP side, although only at 28%.)

• RI-Gov: The DGA is going on the offensive against independent Lincoln Chafee, seeing him (and certainly not Republican John Robitaille) as their main impediment to picking up the governor’s office. They’ve launched an anti-Chafee site… and here’s an indication of the candidates’ positioning in this scrambled race: they’re actually attacking Chafee from the right, focusing on Chafee’s love of taxes.

• HI-01: One candidate who isn’t running away from Barack Obama is Ed Case, who’s up with a new TV ad throwing his arms around the hometown favorite. “Only one candidate is strong enough to stand with the President: Ed Case!” intones the ad. Despite the White House’s behind-the-scenes finger-on-the-scale, though, Obama hasn’t officially come out in favor of Case.

• ID-01: I wonder what think tank the right-wing’s current fixation with the 17th Amendment recently bubbled up from? I thought it was a weird aberration when Steve Stivers started up about it, but now it’s an issue in the GOP primary in the 1st, where all of a sudden the two contestants, Raul Labrador and Vaughn Ward, are trying to out-Seventeenther each other. Has Frank Luntz actually tried running the idea through one of his focus groups of taking away people’s rights to vote for their Senators? Somehow I doubt it polls well.

• WATN?: Couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy. Former Republican state Senate majority leader Joe Bruno just got sentenced to two years in federal prison for fraud and abuse of office. It’s worth noting, though, that the sentence was stayed until the SCOTUS can rule on the “honest services” issue that’s before it, so it could be a long time, if ever, before Bruno’s wearing stripes.

Yesterday’s primary elections in Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio showed two things: one, despite all the huffing and puffing about it being an anti-incumbent year and there being a massive wave of teabaggers ready to take the system down, establishment candidates still won pretty much everything. And two, the enthusiasm gap between the parties that we’ve been warned about is definitely out there, and numbers from last night back that up.

Indiana: Indiana was the case study for what went wrong with the anti-establishment candidates — there were just too many of them. In Republican race after race, the anti-establishment votes were split between too many candidates, letting the incumbents or the anointed challengers slip through; had the teabaggers had the presence of mind to unite behind one person, they could have done some actual damage. In the Senate primary, 90s-leftover Dan Coats won with a tepid 39%, beating state Sen. Marlin Stutzman (standard-bearer of the DeMint wing of the teabaggers) at 29 and ex-Rep. John Hostettler (representing the Paulist wing) at 23. As we’ve wondered openly before at SSP, I have no idea whether that’s better or worse for Democrats, seeing as how Coats has access to actual money but also a dump-truck full of vulnerabilities (starting off with the possibility that the NRA might actually support Brad Ellsworth over the Brady Bill-supporting Coats).

The same dynamic played out in a slew of House races. In IN-03, somnambulistic Rep. Mark Souder won with 48% over two opponents, Bob Thomas at 34% and Phil Troyer at 16%. In the open seat race in IN-04, SoS Todd Rokita only cleared 42%, although there were 13 contestants in the race and his nearest rival, Brandt Hershman, only reached 17%. In IN-05, widely disliked Rep. Dan Burton managed to way underperform his 52% from his last primary: he only got to 30%; luckily for him, his opposition was so chopped up that he still survived, with former state GOP chair Luke Messer coming closest at 28%. In IN-08, the NRCC’s pick, surgeon Larry Bucshon, barely survived a horde of teabaggers, most of whom coalesced behind Kristi Risk, whom he beat 33-29. And in IN-09, a three-way duel between ex-Rep. Mike Sodrel, establishment pick attorney Todd Young, and teabagger fave Travis Hankins wound up with Young winning with 34%, with Hankins at 32% and Sodrel at 30% (sparing us Baron Hill vs. Sodrel Round Five). The only dominant performance was Jackie Wolarski in IN-02, who picked up 61% of the vote to Jack Jordan’s 28%.

As with Coats, it’s unclear to me who we’d rather have faced in those races. In each case, it was a choice between an establishment guy with money but who isn’t going to excite the GOP base, vs. an outsider without the connections or, possibly, the campaign chops. Maybe Risk’s loss will help with Democrat Trent Van Haaften’s outreach to the local teabaggery, and in the 9th, while it’s sad Baron Hill won’t get to face off against the increasingly laughable Sodrel, Young seems to come with his own set of problems (first and foremost, a big recent donation from Don Blankenship, controversial CEO of coal mining company Massey Energy).

North Carolina: The big story in North Carolina was the Democratic primary in the Senate race. Thanks to a fairly strong performance from third-place finisher Kenneth Lewis, nobody cleared the 40% mark, and we’re headed to a June 22 runoff between SoS Elaine Marshall and ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham, which’ll be a duel between name rec (Marshall) and money (Cunningham). Marshall finished at 36%, Cunningham at 27%, and Lewis at 17%.

At the House level, in the main race where the GOP is playing offense, the primary is also headed to a runoff. In NC-08, unhinged rich guy Tim D’Annunzio got 37% and ex-sportscaster Harold Johnson got 33%. NC-11 had looked like it was also headed to a runoff, but by night’s end businessman Jeff Miller barely cleared the hurdle, with 40.2%. In both those races, the Dem incumbents got mild rebukes from their bases (presumably over their anti-HCR votes), with Larry Kissell getting only 63% and Heath Shuler getting 62%. In NC-06 and NC-10, geriatric Howard Coble (64%) and bombastic Patrick McHenry (63%) also underperformed against fractured opposition. You have to look further downballot to see any bodies falling: five incumbent state legislators lost their primaries (four of them Dems, although some of these look like safe seats).

Ohio: The main event in Ohio was the Senate primary for Democrats, where Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, as expected beat SoS Jennifer Brunner 55-45. Considering how vastly Brunner was outspent, and the trajectory of the last week’s polls, it’s actually surprising it was that close. Apparently Brunner’s hard work on the ground in some of Ohio’s reddish areas in the last weeks of the campaign paid off some dividends, as she put up big leads in the Cincinnati area (Hamilton and Clermont Counties). Naturally, it leaves you to wonder what she could have done if she’d had some actual money.

In the House, OH-02 was the scene of two contested primaries. Rep. Jean Schmidt survived her primary challenge with little trouble, beating Warren Co. Commissioner Mike Kilburn 62-22. On the Dem side, Surya Yalamanchili squeaked out a 41-38 win over David Krikorian, with apparently enough people repulsed by both to give 22% to Some Dude J. Parker. Krikorian continued to be a douchebag even in defeat, accusing Yalamanchili of having played “the race card.” The establishment candidates in the two other big GOP primaries both prevailed: in OH-16, Jim Renacci got 49% to 40% for Matt Miller (his third straight time breaking 40% but losing the GOP primary here). And state Sen. Bob Gibbs, the NRCC’s recruit in OH-18, seems to have beaten Fred Dailey by about 200 votes (at 21% each), although this race appears headed to a recount. (One would be hard-pressed to call Dailey, the 2008 nominee and former state Agriculture Director, an outsider candidate, although at least he was certainly angry this time around.)

In Ohio, there were also some allegedly hot primaries for the GOP in statewide races, where teabagger favorites were taking on establishment picks, that also turned out to be a big bucket of nothing. In the SoS primary, state Sen. Jon Husted beat Sandra O’Brien 67-33, while in the Auditor race, Delaware Co. Prosecutor Dave Yost (who was the teabagger fave when he was in the AG race running against the guy they really hate, Mike DeWine, but became their enemy when he switched over to the Auditor’s race against the guy they liked) beat state Rep. Seth Morgan 65-35.

Finally, as I said at the start, there’s the matter of turnout disparities. Reid Wilson points to how only 662K voters voted in the OH-Sen Democratic primary, which was lower than the number of Democratic voters (872K) in the Democratic primary in 2006 (where there was no contested D primary in either the Governor or Senate races). That jibes with the broader numbers we’ve been seeing about enthusiasm gaps (as with Gallup‘s recent poll showing 43% of Republicans are “very enthused” about voting, while 33% of Democrats are). The falloff was similar in Indiana, where only 204K Dems participated as opposed to 304K in 2006, although it’s worth noting that the Dems were playing offense in 2006 and had contested House primaries, while this year there was really bupkus to get Dems to the polls in Indiana. In North Carolina, 425K voted in the Dem primary. Reid compares this to 2004, where more Dems showed up in the primary, but that may not be an apt comparison as that’s a presidential year — regardless, that too may be an ominous number in the context of the Republican Senate primary, where almost as many, 374K, voted to help Richard Burr dispatch no-name opposition.

Now that we’ve pretty much buried Indiana, it’s time to move the party over to a fresh new thread.

RESULTS

• NC: Associated Press | NC BoE | Politico
• OH: Associated Press | OH SoS | Politico

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11:51pm: Gibbs now leads Dailey by 5 votes in OH-18. 35 precincts to go.

11:41pm: ‘Chili wins OH-02 — the AP calls it.

11:28pm: Last update from jeffmd here, but I’m gonna say a narrow ‘Chili win in OH-02 (he’ll improve slightly), and a very very narrow win in OH-18 for Dailey, within recount territory.

11:13pm: Things are looking better for Yalamanchili in OH-02, up 651 votes with 11 precincts left; 9 are in Hamilton County, where Chili’s been getting 55%. (jeffmd)

10:59pm: A new back of the envelope calculation says 21.1% for Dailey to 20.7% for Gibbs, or a 167-vote margin. Guernsey, Licking, and Tuscarawas Counties are left. Guernsey was 17-14 for Dailey, with some dude Moll winning; Licking was 30% for some dude Daubenmire but was 15-10 for Gibbs. Tuscarawas was also good for Moll, but leaned Gibbs 12-10. (jeffmd)

10:54pm: Here’s a bit of good news: In OH-02, Surya Yalamanchili has taken the lead from David Krikorian for the first time. He’s up 39-38 with three quarters in.

10:49pm: We’re down to stems and seeds, folks. The only real excitement left is OH-18.

10:42pm: 509 of 589 precincts are in, and Dailey leads by 160 votes in OH-18. Meanwhile, all the votes are now counted in NC-11, and it looks like Jeff Miller will barely make it to the general without a runoff — unless there’s a recount.

10:22pm: SSP’s jeffmd.app is projecting Fred Dailey to win OH-18 by 21.5% to Bob Gibbs’ 20.5%. Ohio law calls for a mandatory recount if the margin is below 0.5%.

10:19pm: The AP has called a runoff for NC-08, with Harold Johnson and Tim D’Annuzio the lucky twosome. Meanwhile, jeffmd has called IN-09 for Todd Young.

10:13pm: With 445 of 589 precincts in, NRCC pick Bob Gibbs leads Fred Daily by just 70 votes. Hang on to your butts…

10:03pm: The AP has called the Ohio Senate primary for Lee Fisher. He’s leading Brunner by 56-44 with about 48% of the votes in.

9:58pm: In OH-18, Fred Dailey leads NRCC pick Bob Gibbs by 25-22. Over half the vote’s in there.

9:53pm: OH-16 got super-tight – Jim Renacci leads Matt Miller by just over 100 votes.

• AR-Sen: Maybe it was yesterday’s performance in front of Carl Levin by all those Goldman Sachs execs, but Blanche Lincoln saw the handwriting on the wall and reversed course on her Goldman contributions, which she’d previously said she was keeping. She’s giving all that money to the Arkansas Hunger Relief Alliance.

• LA-Sen: Having tried to hammer David Vitter on all sorts of approaches (most of which seem to relate back to formaldehyde somehow — FEMA trailers, the dry cleaners’ lobby, and so on) and not gotten much traction, the Louisiana Democratic Party is going back to the well, to focus on the really easy-to-understand, obvious stuff: his patronizing of prostitutes. They have a new site up called “Forgotten Crimes” that revisits that sordid business.

• NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall is about to go on the TV airwaves starting Thursday, her first spot with less than a week to go before the primary. One of her advisors, Thomas Mills, also seems to have had a bit of a Homer Simpson moment of not saying the say-out-loud part and shouting the keep-it-in-your-head part; he said that opponent Cal Cunningham doesn’t have a chance in the general “because he’s a white male.”

• PA-Sen: An ill-timed Arlen Specter quote today is raising a few eyebrows; he told Allentown’s newspaper that “I might have helped the country more if I’d stayed a Republican.” Of course, all the selective quoting misses the meat of his statement, which is that he says he would have voted for HCR regardless, and was musing whether he would have been in a better position to bring aboard Republican moderates from within that camp. Meanwhile, it seems like people are only just now waking up to the fact that Pat Toomey isn’t unopposed on the GOP side; he still faces off against underfunded pro-life activist Peg Luksik. Luksik is finally getting in the news today, calling attention to Toomey’s pro-choice statements in the past.

• WI-Sen: When Tommy Thompson decided not to run for Senate, many eyes wandered over to conservative state Senator Ted Kanavas as a possible Republican candidate against Russ Feingold. Kanavas declined a bid today; the only potential candidate that the GOP seems to be waiting on is wealthy businessman Ron Johnson, who still seems to be making up his mind.

• MA-Gov: The RGA is taking a page from its successful race in New Jersey, where they spent a ton of money neutralizing independent candidate Chris Daggett. They’re facing an even bigger problem in Massachusetts in the form of Dem-turned-indie state Treasurer Tim Cahill, who’s not only spoiling the race for Charlie Baker, but in 2nd place ahead of Baker. With that in mind, the RGA is launching the first big ad buy of the race, and it’s an anti-Cahill, rather than anti-Deval Patrick, salvo.

• ME-Gov: The winner of the money chase in the Maine governor’s race is Republican businessman Les Otten; he says he’s raised $106K for his campaign, but also loaned himself $1.2 million. Republican Bruce Poliquin seems to have raised the most from others, among all the candidates; he’s raised $600K. The money issue may be less relevant in Maine than most states, though; the more-or-less frontrunners on each side of the aisle, Democratic state Sen. Libby Mitchell and Republican state Sen. Peter Mills, are both relying on public funding through the Maine Clean Election Act.

• WI-Gov: In the jostling to be Democrat Tom Barrett’s running mate in the Wisconsin gubernatorial race, there was a lot of action yesterday. Milwaukee alderman Tony Zielinski got out of the race and at the same time, state Assembly majority leader Thomas Nelson got in. Nelson is from Kaukauna (near Appleton); there may have been a push by Barrett (the Milwaukee mayor) to get some geographic diversity on the ticket.

• IN-05: Republican Dan Burton is one of Big Pharma’s least favorite Republicans; no surprise, as he’s one of the leading voices in the House for autism/vaccination crackpottery. Money from health and drug executives and PACs has been flowing into the campaigns of his primary opponents (especially state Rep. Mike Murphy and former state GOP chair Luke Messer). Unfortunately for Big Pharma, the badly-fractured opposition means that Burton looks poised to survive the May 4 primary even with a small plurality (as Indiana doesn’t have runoffs).

• WV-01: Rep. Alan Mollohan, who tends to keep less money in his campaign warchest than most people keep in their checking accounts, has suddenly turned into a fundraising beast in recent weeks (now that he suddenly has some motivation to do so, facing both a tough primary and some credible GOP opposition). He’s raised $32K in just the last two days after holding a fundraiser. Meanwhile, there’s no clear front-runner as to who his GOP opponent will be, although former state Rep. David McKinley and former state Sen. Sarah Minear are trading punches over their legislative track records.

• CA-LG: Abel Maldonado was sworn in as California’s new Lt. Governor today, finally filling the long-vacant position. On the downside, the Republican can now run for re-election as an incumbent, but on the plus side, his Democratic-leaning Senate seat (not just in terms of registration, but a 59/39 vote for Obama), SD-15, is up for grabs. Der Governator just set the special election date for the summertime (6/22 primary, 8/17 general), though, rather than to coincide with the November election, which may work to Republicans’ advantage in terms of lower turnout.

• Illinois: Hoping to avoid a repeat of the short-lived Pat Quinn/Scott Lee Cohen ticket (and various terrible pairings from the past as well), Illinois Democrats are changing the system so that a Governor and Lt. Governor candidate run together as a ticket even in the primary, rather than getting a post-primary shotgun wedding. The state Senate passed the bill 56-0 (as Republicans seem none too enthused about their 27-year-old dilettante running mate either) and heads to Pat Quinn for his signature. (Gee, I wonder how he feels about the issue?)

• FL-Sen: It’s come down to brass tacks for Charlie Crist. With fast-approaching April 30 the drop-dead date for switching over to an independent bid for the Senate, he’s set a Thursday deadline for making up his mind on the matter. So, we’ll know soon one way or the other.

• MO-Sen, IL-Sen: Robin Carnahan found an excuse to avoid Barack Obama last time he was in Missouri, but, apparently realizing that she needs to rev up her base, she’s appearing with him this week when he visits an ethanol plant in Macon. Obama is also extending some of his cred to the currently very-wobbly Alexi Giannoulias, appearing with him downstate in Quincy on the same road swing.

• NC-Sen: There are two different polls today of the Democratic primary in the North Carolina Senate race, both promising a very close race (with the election one week from today, although a runoff may be in the offing). SurveyUSA’s first look at the field finds SoS Elaine Marshall leading ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham 23-19, with attorney Kenneth Lewis at 10, miscellaneous others adding up to 15, and 34% undecided. (Marshall has a 33-13 edge among liberals, while Cunningham has narrow leads among moderates and conservatives. And despite Cunningham’s relative youth, he’s in 3rd place among the 18-34 set; Kenneth Lewis actually leads among young voters, but barely makes a dent among older voters.) SurveyUSA also finds Richard Burr cruising in the GOP primary, at 59% with none of his opponents topping 6%. PPP (pdf) has similar numbers; Marshall leads Cunningham 26-23, with Lewis at 7, miscellaneous others at 10, and 34% undecided. (It’s a narrower spread from last month, where PPP saw Marshall leading Cunningham 23-17.)

• NY-Sen: Finally, someone put their head in the chopping block to go up against Chuck Schumer and his $21 million warchest. Republican political consultant and Fox commentator Jay Townsend will try to… well, you can’t even hope to contain Schumer, let alone beat him.

• UT-Sen: There’s yet another poll of the delegates to next month’s Republican convention in Utah, this time by Mason-Dixon on behalf of the Salt Lake Tribune. This one’s pretty bad for Bob Bennett too, suggesting he isn’t likely to even make it to the final round of convention balloting. He’s in third place among delegates’ expressed first choices. Mike Lee is at 37, Tim Bridgewater is at 20, and Bob Bennett is at 16, followed by Cherilyn Eagar at 11. (Inflammatory ex-Rep. Merrill Cook seems to have burned all of his bridges and then bagged and sold all the charcoal, as he’s polling at 1%.) Based on second choices, Lee would win the final round against Bridgewater 44-30, suggesting that Lee can’t nail it down at the convention and that he and Bridgewater would advance to the primary. (Lee wins a Lee/Bennett head-to-head 51-18.) Perhaps the most telling statistic, though, of what a thin slice of the hard right this sample is: of the delegates, 68% say they’re “supporters” of the Tea Party movement. Other Senator Orrin Hatch should be glad he’s not running this year, as he’s sufficiently impure that he’d be getting the same treatment: 71% say they’d be inclined to nominate someone other than Hatch.

• AL-Gov: Ah, nothing beats good old fashioned southern hospitality. Tim James (son of ex-Gov. Fob James), running for Alabama Governor, says he’ll save money by stopping offering the driver’s license test in other languages (because, apparently, complying with the Civil Rights Act of 1964 is for suckers). James’s tagline? “This is Alabama. We speak English.”

• GA-Gov: Wealthy teabagger Ray Boyd — who just recently showed up on the scene in the GOP gubernatorial field — balked at signing a Republican “loyalty oath” that’s apparently a mandatory part of running for office as a Republican in Georgia. So, Boyd took his $2 million ball, went home, and is now planning to run as an independent. A few percentage of right-wingers peeled off by Boyd may make all the difference for Democratic ex-Gov. Roy Barnes in a close election, so consider this good news.

• ME-Gov: Former state House speaker John Richardson abruptly dropped out of the Democratic field in the Maine governor’s race. Richardson (already getting little traction, if another candidate’s internal is to be believed) hit ‘eject’ after finding he wouldn’t qualify for Clean Election Act public funding, after the state ethics committee found his campaign fudged documents about qualifying contributions. That brings a little more clarity to the almost-opaque Democratic field, reducing it to state Sen. President Libby Mitchell, ex-AG Steve Rowe, ex-Dept. of Conservation head Pat McGowan, and businesswoman Rosa Scarcelli.

• MN-Gov: This seems like a strange time for Ramsey Co. DA Susan Gaertner to drop out of the gubernatorial race, as she was one of the candidates who was ignoring the DFL nominating convention and planning to forge ahead in the primary regardless. Maybe she was counting on a R.T. Rybak endorsement and thus being the only female candidate in the primary? At any rate, Gaertner cited money woes as the main reason for her dropout; she stopped short of endorsing Margaret Anderson Kelliher but cited the historic nature of electing a female governor and said she didn’t want to be a spoiler for Kelliher.

• UT-Gov: Salt Lake County mayor Peter Corroon sounds like he’s looking to take a page from Brian Schweitzer and Kathleen Sebelius, two popular Dems who overcame their states’ reddish hue with a Republican as a running mate. Corroon didn’t name anyone specific, but said he has some GOPers on his Lt. Gov. short list.

• AL-05: I don’t know if this’ll help Rep. Parker Griffith much with the local rank-and-file (for instance, the Madison Co. Republican Committee, which refused to endorse him), but all of the state’s four other Republican House members endorsed him. Said the former Democrat and Deaniac: “They have seen first-hand how hard I’ve fought Nancy Pelosi’s liberal agenda that will ruin our country if we don’t stop it.”

• FL-25: Buried deep in a Roll Call article about the current state of play in the open seat in the 25th are some numbers from a month-old internal poll by Benenson taken for the DCCC. The poll may explain what got 2008 Democratic candidate Joe Garcia off the fence and back into the fight in the 25th: the poll had Garcia leading state Rep. David Rivera (looking like the likeliest GOP nominee) 38-35. As far as the GOP field goes, it doesn’t seem like rumored candidate state Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla is planning to show up; so far, Rivera’s main GOP opposition seems to be attorney Marili Cancio, who says she declined an invitation to the NRCC’s “Young Guns” program.

• HI-01: The DCCC is slapping down an $81K independent expenditure in the 1st. It’s a media buy, not on behalf of either Dem but against GOPer Charles Djou.

• KS-02: Too bad we don’t have much of a candidate on tap in the 2nd to exploit the carnage if the GOP primary goes nuclear. One-term Rep. Lynn Jenkins (who, believe it or not, hails from the “moderate” wing of the party despite a litany of right-wing-sounding gaffes) is getting a challenge from the teabag corps, in the form of state Sen. Dennis Pyle. Pyle has been threatening a bid for many months, but made it official today.

• MO-04: And here’s yet more cat fud, across the state line in Missouri’s 4th. While they haven’t done anything publicly, the NRCC is apparently starting to choose sides in the primary, favoring state Sen. Bill Stouffer over social conservative ex-state Rep. Vicki Hartzler. The NRCC arranged a sitdown between the two candidates, but Hartzler apparently blew it off after finding out the point of the NRCC’s meeting was to encourage her to drop out.

• WA-03: State Rep. Deb Wallace was the first Democrat to jump into the field after Rep. Brian Baird’s retirement; she got out fairly quickly once Denny Heck got in, realizing that she’d have to share the moderate side of the ledger with him and that she wouldn’t be able to compete with Heck’s financial resources. Wallace finally endorsed in the race today, opting for (no surprise here) Heck over the more liberal state Sen. Craig Pridemore (who just picked up the Sierra Club’s endorsement last week). Heck also has Baird’s endorsement, as well as that of Gov. Chris Gregoire.

• AZ-Sen, AZ-Gov: The signature by Gov. Jan Brewer (which may have helped her survive the GOP primary, but may also hurt her in the general) of Arizona’s new aggressive anti-immigrant law was the key motivating factor in a new Democratic candidate getting into the Senate race: civil rights activist Randy Parraz. He’ll face Rodney Glassman in the Democratic primary. (Why not the, y’know, Arizona Governor’s race instead? Apparently Glassman looks like easier primary opposition than AG Terry Goddard in the governor’s race… and at any rate, John McCain and J.D. Hayworth have both been beating the war drums on immigration.) And here’s an interesting take on the immigration law: ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo just came out in opposition to it, saying, “I do not want people here, there in Arizona, pulled over because you look like should be pulled over.” If even Tom Tancredo thinks you’re doing it wrong… you’re probably doing it wrong.

• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon’s campaign doesn’t seem to be doing anything illegal here, but there’s still no good way to spin this: the campaign has been offering students an extra $5 bounty (on top of a flat hourly rate) for every Republican registered during a Univ. of Connecticut voter registration drive. It’s a practice that the DOJ has frowned upon.

• IL-Sen: In the wake of the seizure of the Broadway Bank, Alexi Giannoulias wasted no time in getting an explanatory ad on the air, laying it out in easy-to-grasp points: one, he hadn’t worked there in years and when he left it was fine, two, the broader economy took the bank down, and three, speaking of that economic downturn, don’t vote for unemployment-benefits-denying Mark Kirk.

• MD-Sen: OK, maybe all those Barb Mikulski retirement rumors will finally go away. She just had her campaign’s official kickoff event on Friday. She has 24 times the cash of her likeliest Republican opponent, Queen Anne’s Co. Commissioner Eric Wargotz.

• NC-Sen: Elon University’s out with another poll; they still aren’t doing head-to-heads, but have some assorted other numbers that Richard Burr would probably rather not see. His approvals (among flat-out everybody, not even RVs) are 28/37 and 26% say he “deserves re-election” with 44% saying “time for a new person.”

• NV-Sen: A poll for the Nevada News Bureau performed by PMI finds Sue Lowden leading the pack in the GOP Senate primary, at 41. Danny Tarkanian is at 24, Sharron Angle is at 17, and “someone else” is at 18. The poll was taken on the 22nd, shortly after Lowden laid out her support for trading chickens in exchange for poultices and tinctures.

• NY-Sen-B: Long-time Rockland Co. Exec Scott Vanderhoef has decided not to pursue a run against Kirsten Gillibrand, after having spent a month in exploratory mode, saying the money’s just not there. Vanderhoef probably found he didn’t have the name rec outside of Rockland Co. to have an advantage against the odds and ends in the GOP primary, let alone in the general.

• UT-Sen: Another poll of GOP delegates for the convention in Utah isn’t as bad for Bob Bennett as the one leaked to Dave Weigel last week, but it still looks pretty bad for him. Mike Lee leads the way among first-choice votes at 31%, followed by Bennett at 22% (and then Tim Bridgewater at 17% and Cherilyn Eagar at 10%). 41% of delegates say they will “absolutely not” vote for Bennett, so even if Bennett picks up the other 59%, he still can’t nail down the nomination at the convention (as there’s a 60% threshold).

• WA-Sen: Everyone seemed a little taken by surprise by Friday’s SurveyUSA poll of the Washington Senate race, which has non-candidate (for now) Dino Rossi leading Patty Murray 52-42 (and leading the various no-name GOPers actively in the race by 2 or 3 points). Even the Rossi camp is downplaying it, saying that their internal polling places Murray in the lead – which is an odd strategy for someone who got gifted an outlying poll, unless either he’s trying to rope-a-dope Murray into complacency or privately cursing the results saying “aw crap, now I have to run for Senate.” One of the no-namers, motivational speaker Chris Widener, got out of the race on Friday, which may also portend a Rossi run (or just having taken a stark look at his own finances). Murray’s camp may have gotten advance warning of the SurveyUSA poll, as on Friday they leaked their own internal from Fairbank Maslin giving Murray a 49-41 lead over Rossi, very consistent with R2K’s recent poll.

• IL-Gov: Oh, goody. Scott Lee Cohen, having bailed out/gotten booted off the Democratic ticket as Lt. Governor nominee after his criminal record became news, still has a political issue that needs scratching. He’s announcing that he’s going to run an independent bid for Governor instead. Considering how thoroughly his dirty laundry has been aired, he seems likely to poll in the low single digits; I have no idea whether his candidacy (which now appeals mostly only to the steroid-addled pawnbroker demographic) is more harmful to Pat Quinn, Bill Brady, or just the world’s general sense of decency.

• MI-Gov: When I heard a few weeks ago that Geoffrey Fieger (the trial lawyer best known for defending Jack Kevorkian and second-best-known for his awful turn as 1998 Democratic gubernatorial nominee) was pondering another gubernatorial run, I laughed it off. The new EPIC-MRA poll makes it seem a bit more serious, though… which, in turn, if he won the primary, would pretty much foreclose any Democratic shot at winning the general. They only polled the Democratic primary and find, thanks to name rec within the Detroit metro area, Fieger is actually comfortably in the lead at 28%. Andy Dillon is at 20, Virg Bernero is at 13, Alma Wheeler Smith is at 8, other is at 2, and 29% are undecided. Fieger hasn’t moved much to act on his interest, though, and has only three weeks to collect the necessary 15,000 signatures to qualify.

• FL-24: Karen Diebel earned the backing of Tom Tancredo in the GOP primary in the 24th, focusing on (with Tancredo, what else?) in the immigration issue. It seems less of a pro-Diebel endorsement than more of a slap against her GOP opponent Craig Miller, though; in a 2006 Miami Herald op-ed, Miller (who was at that point chairman of the National Restaurant Association) came out pretty solidly on the “cheap labor” side of the Republican split on immigration.

• GA-12: Democrats looking for an upgrade from ex-state Sen. Regina Thomas (who raised $10K last quarter and has $4K CoH) for a primary challenge to recalcitrant Blue Dog John Barrow are going to have to keep looking. State Sen. Lester Jackson decided to take a pass, and will stay neutral in the Barrow/Thomas race. He’ll focus instead of supporting the Senate bid of Labor Comm. Michael Thurmond (another rumored, but no-longer, challenger to Barrow).

• LA-03: Bobby Jindal just appointed Scott Angelle, the state’s Sec. of Natural Resources, to the vacant position of Lt. Governor. Why is this filed under LA-03? Angelle was rumored to be one of the top contenders to run for the 3rd (although it was unclear whether he was going to do it as a Dem or a GOPer… Angelle was a Dem in the legislature, but appointed by GOP Gov. Jindal to his cabinet). With Angelle saying he’ll return to his job at Natural Resources after a permanent replacement is elected, that means that former state House speaker Hunt Downer is pretty well locked-in as the GOP nominee in the 3rd, and the Dems aren’t likely to get an upgrade from attorney Ravi Sangisetty, making this open seat a very likely GOP pickup. (H/t GOPVOTER.)

• NY-01: Randy Altschuler got the endorsement from the Suffolk County Conservative Party on Friday, which guarantees him a place on the ballot if he wants it. He’ll still need to overcome Chris Cox and George Demos in the competitive three-way moneybags duel in the GOP primary (where the county GOP recently switched its endorsement from Altschuler to Cox). It’s unclear whether he’d keep the Conservative line if he lost the GOP primary, as that would create a NY-23 type situation and pretty much assure Rep. Tim Bishop’s safety. (Unlike the patchwork of counties in the upstate districts, all of the 1st is within Suffolk.)

• NY-29: The GOP would really, really like to have a special election in the 29th, despite David Paterson’s apparent intention to play out the clock until November (and prevent a possible GOP pickup, given the difference in strength between the likely candidates). Several GOP party chairs within the district are preparing a lawsuit that would force a special election; the state GOP plans to assist.

• OH-02: Bad news for Jean Schmidt: although she got the Hamilton Co. GOP’s endorsement in the previous two elections, she’s going to have to proceed without it this year. They’re staying neutral as she faces several primary challengers, most notably Warren Co. Commissioner Mike Kilburn.

• PA-12: In battling independent expenditures in the 12th, the GOP went large, as the NRCC plunked down $235K on media buys. The DCCC also spent $16K on media buys.

• SC-04: The dean at Bob Jones University (the crown jewel in the buckle of the Bible Belt, in Greenville in the 4th), Robert Taylor, has announced he’s supporting Trey Gowdy in the GOP primary instead of incumbent Rep. Bob Inglis. The occasionally-moderate Inglis (more stylistically than in actual voting substance, though) faces at least three right-wing competitors in the primary, but could run into trouble if he doesn’t clear 50% and gets forced into a runoff with one of them.

• WV-01: There are dueling internal polls in the 1st, in the Democratic primary. State Sen. Mike Oliverio was first to release a poll, saying he led Rep. Alan Mollohan 41-33. (One caveat: Oliverio’s pollster is Orion Strategies, owned by Curtis Wilkerson, who also just happens to be Oliverio’s campaign manager.) Mollohan struck back with a poll from Frederick Polls giving him a 45-36 lead over Oliverio, with the primary fast approaching on May 11.

• MA-AG: Despite it now being widely known that Martha Coakley has a glass jaw (or what’s something more fragile than glass? what do they make those fake bottles out of that they use in bar fights in the movies?), she may actually get re-elected Attorney General without facing any GOP opposition whatsoever this fall. Of course, that may have something to do with the fact that the GOP’s entire bench in Massachusetts just got elected to the Senate.

• Pennsylvania: The Philadelphia Inquirer has an interesting look at the changes in registration in Pennsylvania over the last decade. The Democratic Party grew substantially in the state’s east, gaining 550,000 registrations up to 4.3 million voters. The GOP shrank by 103,000 registrations down to 3.1 million votes. The Dems lost 20,000 voters in the state’s southwest, though; in 2002, 27.8% of the state’s Dems were in the Pittsburgh area, but that’s down to 23.8%. Contrast that with the Philadelphia metro area: in its five counties, the number of Republicans dropped 13.5%, from a million to 873,000.

• Redistricting: Here’s the last redistricting resource you’ll ever need: a handy map showing congressional and legislative redistricting procedures for all 50 states. There’s also an accompanying document (pdf) which goes into remarkable detail about the various processes, and even contains an appendix of some of the ugliest current gerrymanders.

AZ-Gov (4/15, likely voters, 3/16 in parentheses):

Terry Goddard (D): 40 (45)

Jan Brewer (R-inc): 44 (36)

Some other: 9 (12)

Not sure: 6 (7)

Terry Goddard (D): 34 (38)

Dean Martin (R): 47 (43)

Some other: 8 (6)

Not sure: 11 (13)

Terry Goddard (D): 37 (42)

John Munger (R): 44 (36)

Some other: 10 (13)

Not sure: 9 (9)

Terry Goddard (D): 37 (37)

Buz Mills (R): 46 (43)

Some other: 8 (7)

Not sure: 9 (13)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

AZ-Gov (R primary) (4/13, likely voters, 3/16 in parentheses):

Jan Brewer (R-inc): 26 (20)

Buz Mills (R): 18 (19)

John Munger (R): 14 (10)

Dean Martin (R): 12 (21)

Some other: 6 (7)

Not sure: 24 (23)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CA-Gov (4/19, likely voters, 3/15 in parentheses):

Jerry Brown (D): 44 (40)

Meg Whitman (R): 38 (40)

Some other: 9 (6)

Not sure: 9 (14)

Jerry Brown (D): 50 (42)

Steve Poizner (R): 32 (27)

Some other: 10 (13)

Not sure: 8 (18)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

FL-Gov (4/15, likely voters, 3/18 in parentheses):

Alex Sink (D): 38 (36)

Bill McCollum (R): 45 (47)

Some other: 7 (5)

Not sure: 10 (12)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

FL-Sen (4/19, likely voters, 3/18 in parentheses):

Kendrick Meek (D): 22 (25)

Marco Rubio (R): 37 (42)

Charlie Crist (I): 30 (22)

Not sure: 11 (11)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

GA-Sen (4/22, likely voters, no trendlines):

Michael Thurmond (D): 35

Johnny Isakson (R): 51

Some other: 6

Not sure: 8

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IN-Sen (4/13-14, likely voters, 3/17-18 in parentheses):

Brad Ellsworth (D): 33 (34)

Dan Coats (R): 54 (49)

Some other: 5 (6)

Not sure: 9 (12)

Brad Ellsworth (D): 33 (32)

John Hostettler (R): 50 (50)

Some other: 5 (4)

Not sure: 12 (15)

Brad Ellsworth (D): 36 (34)

Marlin Stutzman (R): 41 (41)

Some other: 7 (6)

Not sure: 16 (18)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MD-Gov (4/20, likely voters, 2/23 in parentheses):

Martin O’Malley (D-inc): 47 (49)

Bob Ehrlich (R): 44 (43)

Some other: 2 (2)

Not sure: 7 (5)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NC-Sen (4/19, likely voters, 3/22 in parentheses):

Elaine Marshall (D): 32 (35)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 50 (51)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 12 (8)

Cal Cunningham (D): 31 (32)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 53 (51)

Some other: 4 (7)

Not sure: 13 (11)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Gov (4/15, likely voters, 3/16 in parentheses):

Dan Onorato (D): 36 (29)

Tom Corbett (R): 45 (46)

Some other: 8 (7)

Not sure: 11 (17)

Jack Wagner (D): 27 (33)

Tom Corbett (R): 48 (46)

Some other: 11 (6)

Not sure: 14 (16)

Joe Hoeffel (D): 29 (28)

Tom Corbett (R): 49 (49)

Some other: 11 (5)

Not sure: 11 (18)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

TX-Gov (4/14, likely voters, 3/3 in parentheses):

Bill White (D): 44 (43)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 48 (49)

Some other: 2 (3)

Not sure: 6 (6)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

WI-Gov (4/20, likely voters, 3/16 in parentheses):

Tom Barrett (D): 44 (42)

Scott Walker (R): 46 (48)

Some other: 3 (2)

Not sure: 7 (8)

Tom Barrett (D): 46 (42)

Mark Neumann (R): 46 (46)

Some other: 4 (4)

Not sure: 5 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

WI-Sen (4/20, likely voters, 3/16 in parentheses):

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 48

Richard Leinenkugel (R): 37

Some other: 7

Not sure: 8

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 49 (49)

Terrence Wall (R): 43 (40)

Some other: 3 (3)

Not sure: 5 (9)

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 49 (51)

Dave Westlake (R): 38 (35)

Some other: 4 (5)

Not sure: 9 (10)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

• FL-Sen: The big rumor, all over the Interwebs today (courtesy of Southern Political Report/Insider Advantage’s Matt Towery), is that Charlie Crist has fully resolved to run as an independent for Senate. The announcement will be “sooner rather than later,” and he’s drafting the speech for the announcement. There’s no confirmation from anyone else, though. Crist’s camp has denied they’ve been scrubbing all references to “Republican” from Crist’s websites in preparation for the big switch. Meanwhile, GOP establishment support within Florida for Crist seems to be cratering, as current state House speaker Larry Cretul threw his lot in with Rubio today. John McCain also said today that he can’t support Crist’s independent candidacy. (Wow, that’s really going out on a limb there, Mr. Maverick.)

• AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski may be one of the least endangered Senate incumbents out there, with no Democrats of note stepping forward to challenge her. Her GOP primary may turn out to require at least a little effort, though, as a challenger of at least something-of-note has stepped forward: former judge Joe Miller, whose only elective experience is losing a Fairbanks-area state House race. Miller is sounding teabaggy themes about the Constitution and socialism, but has endorsements from three state legislators, all from the socially conservative side of the GOP.

• IN-Sen: Hey, big spender! John Hostettler reports raising $37K in the first quarter, spending $27K, and ending with $10K CoH.

• NC-Sen: Cal Cunningham’s fundraising haul for Q1 was a weak $345K, leaving him $478K CoH. That’s still more than Elaine Marshall, who has $181K. Pundits are left wondering if the DSCC (who seem to prefer Cunningham) will intervene on Cunningham’s behalf to get him out of the primary, where polls have shown the former state Senator lagging behind Marshall, who as SoS is known statewide.

• NV-Sen: Sue Lowden would do well to heed the old expression about finding oneself in a hole and stopping digging. After her disastrous comments about bartering chickens to doctors in exchange for surgeries and MRIs, she was given ample opportunity to back down, but she doubled down yesterday, saying no, she was serious, and now her spokesperson is tripling down today, saying, no, she was still serious, and presenting a quote from one doctor who says that, yes, he does accept payment in alfalfa and bathtub form. Meanwhile, over in the other Senate seat, badly-damaged John Ensign is also on the receiving end of a lot of derision after reporting $50 in receipts in Q1. TPM actually tracked Ensign’s one donor down, who shrugged off Ensign’s problems, saying “All men are dogs.”

• UT-Sen: Mitt Romney will be at the Utah Republican convention next month to lend his support to faltering incumbent Bob Bennett. I’m not sure if Romney will be able to vote for Bennett, though, as Utah may not be one of the approximately 14 states in which he has residency.

• WA-Sen: Dino Rossi seems content to pad out his waiting game all the way up to Washington’s June 11 filing deadline (seemingly blissfully unaware that he needs to raise a metric ton of money ASAP if he’s going to run). That’s not sitting well with John Cornyn, who’s amping up the public statements telling Rossi to get his ass in gear.

• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman’s out with an internal poll via McLaughlin, giving her a 53-22 edge over Steve Poizner in the GOP primary. Some of you may also have noticed a Rasmussen poll out today showing the needle zooming back in Jerry Brown’s direction in the general. I’m very puzzled about this one… why is Rasmussen, of all people, putting up better California results for Dems than the Field Poll? I’m wondering if California is intensely blue enough that Rasmussen’s LV model works in Dems’ favor somehow.

• MI-Gov: I suppose it was only a matter of time before someone went after Republican AG Mike Cox over the alleged coverup of a party-gone-very-awry at then-mayor Kwame Kilpatrick’s place in 2002. The ad (a small buy on Lansing-area radio stations) attacking Cox is from Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America, who, if the name sounds familiar, is the handiwork of Rick Reed, auteur of the Swift Boat Vets ads. Fingers are being pointed at primary rival Rick Snyder, but he says he didn’t have anything to do with it.

• NY-19: This ought to ease the risk of a NY-23 type situation in the 19th: Nan Hayworth, from the county club wing of the GOP and facing some teabagging opposition in the primary, managed to nail down the endorsement of the Putnam County Conservative Party. Of course, exurban Putnam County is only a small minority of the district, so we’ll have to see what happens in the other more populous counties.

• NY-29: Speaking of New York and teabaggers, it looks like Corning mayor Tom Reed  — a moderate who managed to deter bigger GOP names from jumping into the race following Eric Massa’s implosion — is now drawing some teabagging opposition in the GOP primary from small businessman Angelo Campini.

• NY-St. Sen.: It’s kind of sad that I had to debate over whether a New York state Senate majority leader’s office getting raided by the FBI and the state AG’s office even qualifies as newsworthy because it’s so totally expected. At any rate, Pedro Espada, who mere months ago held the linchpin of power in New York, now seems on his way to an ignominious end, as the scandal over Soundview Health Center heats up.

• NY-St. Ass.: This feels more like “Where Are They Now?” than an actual state Assembly story, but Dede Scozzafava, who went in a few short weeks from likely U.S. Representative to historical footnote, has decided that she’s through with the Assembly (having gotten sacked from her deputy leadership position). She’ll be retiring at the end of her term.

• Governors: Here’s a fun conversation piece: CREW has released its list of the 10 worst governors, in terms of corruption, unethical behavior, and general malfeasance. In a surprise to me, Jim Gibbons didn’t top the list. (I’ll give you a hint of who did: he’s thinking of running for President in 2012, and he seems to be made partly of Foghorn Leghorn DNA.) Only two Dems made the cut: David Paterson and Bill Richardson.