Tag: NM-Sen

From the Associated Press:

U.S. Rep. Tom Udall has decided to run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Republican Pete Domenici, according to an aide.

“He’s definitely running,” Tom Nagle, Udall’s chief of staff told The Associated Press. […]

Udall initially had said he would stay in the House, where he is a member of the Appropriations Committee.

But he reconsidered after a “groundswell” of encouragement from New Mexicans, Nagle said.

“He thinks it’s too important not to run for the Senate,” Nagle said. “A lot of the good things we’ve been able to do (in the House) don’t go anywhere in the Senate.”

Nagle said there has been criticism that Udall is “too liberal” for the seat but he disputed that, saying “the rhetoric doesn’t match the reality of what the data show.”

He said internal campaign polling of likely voters conducted for Udall at the end of October showed the congressman with a considerable lead over either Wilson or Pearce, including among self-described moderates.

Sweet!

Update: Check out the details of an internal poll conducted for Udall by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (10/23-10/27, likely voters):

Tom Udall (D): 52%
Heather Wilson (R): 36%
Undecided: 12%

Tom Udall (D): 50%
Steve Pearce (R): 33%
Undecided: 17%

Martin Chávez (D): 47%
Heather Wilson (R): 43%
Undecided: 10%

Martin Chávez (D): 40%
Steve Pearce (R): 44%
Undecided: 16%
MoE: ±4.3%

The Chávez numbers seem to jive with the most recent polling from SUSA, and the 17 and 18 point leads that Udall enjoys over Pearce and Wilson match up well with the R2K polling for DailyKos.  In short: the poll is good.

Udall starts off in a position of strength in the primary, capturing a solid 50% of Democratic primary voters:

Tom Udall: 50%
Martin Chávez: 30%
Don Wiviott: 2%
Undecided: 17%
MoE: +/-4.6%

Mayor Marty’s ego is clearly stung, hence his unwarranted attacks on Udall’s voting record (the very same voting record that Chávez said he would emulate in a chat with local progressive bloggers).  This primary will be as ugly as he wants it to be, but his extremely high negatives — confirmed by both Udall’s and SUSA’s polling — indicate that this will be a likely loss for the Mayor.  A nickel’s worth of free advice to Martin: bow out gracefully.

Ladies and gentlemen, we now have a progressive candidate in the New Mexico Senate race that we can be proud of.  From Heath Haussamen:

U.S. Rep. Tom Udall, D-N.M., has decided that he will run for the Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici next year.

Udall has called a number of Democratic Party insiders this week, including at least some county party chairs, to inform them of his decision, reliable sources confirmed. A Udall spokesperson could not be reached for comment.

The early polls show Udall dominating his potential GOP foes: fellow Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce.  It looks like we will not only have a solid progressive in the race, but we’ll have the most “electable” candidate of either party’s current field, as well.

This is a huge coup for the folks over at Draft Udall.  Give it up, folks!

Apparently frustrated with attempts by local activists to Draft Tom Udall into the US Senate race, Democrat Marty Chávez is back on the attack:

“This will not be a sweet primary. It just won’t,” Chavez said during a telephone interview. “The contrast in records between me and the Congressman won’t situate him well for the general election.”

In other words, Chávez claims Udall is too liberal for New Mexico. Nice to see the GOP talking points being broken out so early in the campaign, even before Chávez's potential primary opponent has made a decision about the race.

However, Chávez's attempts to paint Udall as a politician “so far to the left” clash with what he had to say about the congressman in a conversation with local bloggers:

“If you look issue by issue I doubt you’ll find much difference … You will find that we will vote together almost all the time.”

Perhaps it's a good thing Udall is holding off on announcing his intentions; it'll give Chávez the time he needs to decide whether Udall is a “great congressman” with an admirable voting record or an out-of-touch liberal.

(H/T: TPM EC)

A recent round of Survey USA polling commissioned by Roll Call predicts Democrats will do quite well in next year's high-profile US Senate races. From poll-to-poll, the MOE varies from 3.8-4.0% with an approximate sample size of 650 respondents.

Colorado:

Mark Udall (D): 48
Bob Schaeffer (R): 41
Undecided: 11

Maine:

Tom Allen (D): 38
Susan Collins (R-inc): 55
Undecided: 8

Minnesota (07/30 results in parens):

Mike Ciresi (D): 44 (42)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 44 (48)
Undecided: 12 (11)

Al Franken (D): 45 (42)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 46 (49)
Undecided: 9 (9)

New Hampshire:

Jay Buckey (D): 36
John Sununu (R-inc): 49
Undecided: 16

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 53
John Sununu (R-inc): 42
Undecided: 5

New Mexico:

Marty Chavez (D): 48
Steve Pearce (R): 43
Undecided: 9

Diane Denish (D): 47
Steve Pearce (R): 43
Undecided: 10

Bill Richardson (D): 58
Steve Pearce (R): 37
Undecided: 4

Don Wiviott (D): 32
Steve Pearce (R): 49
Undecided: 18

Marty Chavez (D): 48
Heather Wilson (R): 44
Undecided: 8

Diane Denish (D): 49
Heather Wilson (R): 43
Undecided: 9

Bill Richardson (D): 59
Heather Wilson (R): 37
Undecided: 5

Don Wiviott (D): 38
Heather Wilson (R): 47
Undecided: 15

Oregon:

Jeff Merkley (D): 39
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 13

Steve Novick (D): 39
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 45
Undecided: 16

Virginia (9/17 results in parens):

Mark Warner (D): 52 (56)
George Allen (R): 42 (37)
Undecided: 6 (7)

Mark Warner (D): 57 (60)
Jim Gilmore (R): 35 (32)
Undecided: 8 (8)

Thoughts? Surprises?

Democracy For New Mexico has the scoop:

Rep. Tom Udall (NM-03) spoke to New Mexico Democrats yesterday at the Party’s State Central Committee meeting at Smith-Brasher hall at CNM in Albuquerque. Bottom line: Udall will take another two weeks to listen to what the people and his family have to say, and weigh the pros and cons of giving up his secure U.S. House seat in Northern New Mexico before making a decision on entering the 2008 U.S. Senate in New Mexico. […]

Udall entered the hall to a standing ovation, loud chants of “Run, Tom, Run” and a multitude of waving signs urging the same. His speech touched on many of today’s hot button issues including Iraq, supporting our troops by getting them out of harm’s way, protecting civil liberties, holding the telecoms accountable for warrantless surveillance and providing expanded children’s health care. He emphasized that we need 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a Bush veto of legislation that the U.S. House has been passing  on matters like ending the war and regaining and preserving our Constitutional rights. It certainly sounded to me like he was leaning towards running to take back the seat held for so long by Pete Domenici, and helping to make that 60 vote majority a reality in the Senate.

Check the full account, with pictures and video, here.  There certainly is a deep hunger for a Tom Udall candidacy at the grassroots level, as the groundswell of support at the Central Committee meeting indicates.  Run, Tom, Run!

New Mexico FBIHOP has more.

(H/T: S2G)

September was an awful month for the GOP: John Warner and Hagel retired, Shaheen and Mark Warner jumped in for Democrats… October started much the same way, as New Mexico’s Pete Domenici announced he would not run for re-election, opening up yet another very vulnerable seat. But Democrats then ran into a bad patch of their own that culminated in the disastrous news that Bob Kerrey would not run in Nebraska. That by itself made a race that was leaning towards Democrats become a likely hold for Republicans. Meanwhile, the shuffle in New Mexico has still not been resolved, with Democrats scrambling to find a strong candidate.

That Nebraska and New Mexico have dominated Senate news in the past month is obvious in these new rankings: New Mexico rose from the 11th to 4th, while Nebraska collapsed from 4th to 13th (Reminder: Races are organized in order of vulnerability, so that the first ranked race is the most likely to turn-over). But there was some other movement: The departure of Tom Davis from the Virginia Senate race solidified the contest’s number one ranking, while Democrats are significantly more upbeat this month about their chances in Kentucky and even in North Carolina. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) should be worried at the Democratic determination to avenge Tom Dashle’s 2004 loss and target him for defeat.

The Senate situation is still very fluid with more retirement and recruitment rumors floating around, so that a lot of things could still change in the coming months. But an increasing number of races are settling down, so that we are starting to get a clearer idea of which states are likely to be hotly contested.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up 4-7 Senate seats.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 5 seats, for a 56-41 majority.

Full rankings are available here, on Campaign Diaries. The lean take-over and toss-up seats are listed here.

Likely Takeover (1 Republican seat, 0 Democratic seats)

1. Virginia (Open seat; Previous Ranking: 1)

A month after Virginia rose to the top of these rankings, it appears to have permanently secured its place as the most vulnerable seat of the 2008 cycle. The Republicans shot themselves in the foot when their Central Committee voted to choose the party’s nominee at a party convention rather than in a primary. As a result, Rep. Tom Davis, who had been preparing to run for Senate for years, decided to stay out of the race. His moderate profile would have made a win in a party convention very difficult considering the more conservative candidacy of former Governor Jim Gilmore. And if the Republicans had one hope to make this race competitive next year, it was that Davis would be able to pick-up votes in his base of Northern Virginia, thus cutting the margins in the bluest region of the state. Polls continue to show Warner has a strong edge against Gilmore, and that cannot be accounted by name recognition as both men are well-known statewide.

Lean Takeover (2 Republican Seats, 0 Democratic Seats)

2. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Previous ranking: 2)

Former Governor Shaheen continues to be the worst nightmare for Senator John Sununu. Polls this past month confirmed that Shaheen was looking strong and was favored against the man who beat her five years ago. Sununu is certainly not out of it though; he mounted a very strong campaign in 2002, defeating the incumbent senator in the primary and the incumbent governor in the general election. Republicans will at least try to defend the seat, and they could definitely narrow the margin. But New Hampshire’s Democratic turn in 2006 was so strong that the GOP is unlikely to easily overcome it. They might choose to focus their attention to reclaiming at least one of the House seats.

3. Colorado (Open; Previous ranking: 3)

Colorado is one of the quietest top-tier races, mostly of how early Senator Allard announced his retirement. Both parties settled on a candidate early, and primaries will not be particularly contested. Democrats are running Rep. Udall, and Republicans are running former Rep. Shaffer. In the past month, the second poll of the race was released and showed a tie between the two candidates — though it had a very high undecided rate. And middle-of-the-road voters are precisely those that broke Democratic in 2004 and 2006. Democrats picked up a Senator’s seat, the governorship and two House seats in two cycles, and there is no reason to think that Colorado independents are moving back in the Republican column. Udall is favored to pull away ride this blue trend across the finish line, though the race could certainly remain tight to the end.

Toss-up (4 R, 1 D)

4. New Mexico (Incumbent: Pete Domenici; Last Ranking: 11)

New Mexico has been the big story of October. Pete Domenici announced a surprise retirement at the beginning of the month, setting off much movement among state officials. New Mexico is a swing state in most elections, and politicians from both parties see this as a major opening. On the Republican side, the two major candidates are Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, two of the three House representatives from New Mexico. Wilson is supposed to be more moderate than Pearce, which has enabled her to survive cycle after cycle in her Democratic-leaning district (she won by 800 votes in 2006). Wilson is lining up more institutional support, but polls have shown Pearce is running stronger in the general election. The main factor against Wilson is her involvement in the attorney firing scandal — that could hurt her in the primary, but especially in the general election.

On the Democratic side, the big question is whether Rep. Tom Udall will run after all. He ruled it out very quickly weeks ago, but he has been reconsidering in recent days, likely due to intense lobbying from the DSCC. All indications are that he will indeed jump in. If he does, he will start off slightly favored in the general election against either Wilson or Pearce. He has been elected statewide before (he was a two-term Attorney General), and he is a very popular figure. But he would first have to overcome a primary. Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, very much disliked by progressives, is also running. Chavez would stay very competitive in the general election, though he would certainly not start off favored.

5. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu; Last Ranking: 6)

Republicans are feeling better about this race after Bobby Jindal’s blowout victory in the governor’s race last month. Granted, Jindal was not facing any significant opposition from Democrats, but his first-round triumph with 54% was nonetheless impressive. Louisiana was trending Republican even before Katrina hit, but Republicans are quite confident that Landrieu has lost much of her base because of hurricane migrations and that newly-turned-Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy will end up the victor.

However, the Republican case should not be overstated. Mitch Landrieu, Senator Landrieu’s brother, overwhelmingly won his re-election race as Lieutenant Governor the same day as Jindal’s victory. Granted, he was not facing much opposition either, but Democrats are not out in the state, and the Landrieu family name still carries some weight in the state.

6. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman; Last Ranking: 5)

Just like in Colorado, the field has been set long ago in Minnesotta, which means that the race has been mostly quiet. Coleman and his challengers Al Franken and Mike Ciresi are all busy raising money — lots of it. Coleman also made news recently by endorsing Giuliani in the presidential primary, not that that will have a major impact on his senatorial race. Some Democrats still worry that Franken will not be very strong in the general election, though much stranger things have happened in American politics and many reports have emphasized how well Franken has been able to transition from comedian to politician. It is strange, however, that the DSCC has not pressured more politically experienced Democrats who could potentially be stronger into running.

7. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith; Last Ranking: 8)

Democrats are confident that Gordon Smith is vulnerable, though they did not convince their top-tier candidates to jump in the race. Ducking it out in the primary are House Speaker Jeff Merkley and Steve Novick, with the former favored by the establishment. Democrats they have to weaken Smith early on, especially considering the large amounts of money the incumbent has been raising. Smith’s main vulnerability is the national anti-GOP environment, and Dems are trying to challenge the image of Smith as a moderate politician. Merkley recently blasted Smith for voting to confirm federal Court of Appeals nominee Leslie Southwick whose nomination was very controversial, especially on the basis of Soultwick’s racial insensitivity.

It looks like Rep. Tom Udall is well beyond merely “reconsidering” his decision not to run for the open Senate seat of retiring Republican Pete Domenici next year — local sources say that he’s actively assembling campaign team, according to Heath Haussamen:

A number of sources are confirming that U.S. Rep. Tom Udall, D-N.M., has moved beyond simply reconsidering whether he should run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici. He’s now trying to put the pieces in place for a Senate run.

That’s sort of obvious, even without the confirmation from sources. Udall considered a Senate run once and decided against it. To reconsider now – and confirm it publicly – means he must be very serious.

With so many Democrats in New Mexico and Washington unsatisfied with the Democrats currently running for Senate, Udall will have no difficulty assembling the team and raising the money he needs for a run. That, coupled with his attempt to put a campaign together, means a Udall Senate run is likely.

Additionally, his press secretary is publicly acknowledging Udall’s decision to give the race another look:

Udall’s press secretary is now confirming that the congressman is reconsidering.

“New Mexicans have urged Tom Udall to reconsider running for the United States Senate, and he’s doing just that,” Marissa Padilla said.

Sounds like this is one “draft” movement that may yield results.  If Udall gets in, this race will be a great example of the type of “DSCC primary meddling” that we can all get behind.

UPDATE: Haussamen says that Lt. Gov. Denish has taken her name out of consideration:

Lt. Gov. Diane Denish has decided to forgo a 2008 U.S. Senate run and instead run for governor in 2010 as she originally planned.

A knowledgeable source confirmed on Thursday that Denish had decided against running for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici.

If so, I’d take that as a good sign that Udall is really giving the race a serious look.  It’s no secret that Denish would prefer to be Governor, and would have been glad to pass the race off to someone else who could win it.  Perhaps Udall tipped her off that she no longer had to consider a bid.

The Albuquerque Journal reports that Rep. Tom Udall is reconsidering his earlier decision not to run for New Mexico's open Senate seat: 

I just got a call from someone very knowledgable about N.M. Democratic politics who says Rep. Tom Udall's people are calling the party's heavy hitters in the state this morning to inform them he is reconsidering a run for the U.S. Senate.
…

A rapidly growing “Draft Udall” movement online, as well as major arm-twisting from the national Democratic elite (including Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Chuck Schumer), has convinced the congressman to reconsider.
…

Udall, a former two-term New Mexico attorney general, has proven he can win statewide and his polling numbers are among the best of any New Mexico politician. Any ambitious politician would take a hard look at the more prestigious Senate senate seat.

Incidentally, I also heard yesterday from separate – but equally reliable sources – that Gov. Bill Richardson called Udall yesterday to tell him he DOES NOT plan to run for the Senate and would stay out of Udall’s way if the congressman decides to jump in.

Tom Udall's entry into the race would certainly shake things up, greatly increasing our chances of picking up the Senate seat while opening all three of the state's House seats. To keep the momentum going, visit DraftUdall.com.

Last week, New Mexico reporter/blogger Heath Haussamen had the inside word that allies of Richardson were discouraging potential donors from cutting checks for the Senate candidacy of Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez:

Some of Gov. Bill Richardson's closest supporters have quietly told a handful of his biggest financial backers considering who they should support in the U.S. Senate race to “keep your powder dry for awhile.” […]

Though no Democrat would speak for the record about the governor's words, sources are speculating on three scenarios:

Richardson, though he has repeatedly insisted publicly that he isn't going to run for Senate even if he loses the presidential race, may be quietly leaving the door open.

Richardson doesn't want his supporters giving their money or time to a Senate candidate at this crucial stage in the presidential election, when he needs their help.

Richardson doesn't want them backing Chávez, the only top-tier Democrat in the Senate race, at a time when Denish is considering the race and Washington insiders and grassroots supporters in New Mexico are trying to get U.S. Rep. Tom Udall to enter the race.

It's no secret that local and national Democrats would prefer an alternative to Chavez — and everything that I've been hearing indicates that strong alternatives are giving the race a hard look.  I had assumed that Richardson's advice that donors should “keep their powder dry” was meant to give Lt. Gov. Diane Denish and Rep. Tom Udall some more time to consider (and reconsider) the race.  But could Richardson actually be angling to get into the race himself?  Mark Murray over at First Read has the scoop:

By the way, NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli — who's covering Richardson filing his paperwork today for the New Hampshire primary — reports that Richardson said he would not accept matching funds “because it's unilateral disarmament.” It's worth noting that not accepting matching funds makes it MUCH easier to transfer one's presidential money into a Senate account. Just some food for thought…

Richardson's presidential campaign coffers haven't exactly been on par with Hillary's or Obama's.  (He raised $7 million in the third quarter and had less than that on-hand at the start of the month.)  It seems that the extra boost provided by matching funds would be a pretty crucial component of a come-from-behind victory for Richardson's team.  And while the move not to accept funds makes perfectly good strategic sense for someone aiming to succeed in the general election, it must be noted that Richardson faces far longer odds of making it there than even John Edwards has today.  Could something else be at work here?

If Richardson were to run, the polls suggest it would be a slam dunk for Democrats.  Should we hold out hope that Richardson might decide to pursue a Senate bid after his Presidential campaign flames out?  Or are we going to end up looking like the poor souls who are still hoping for Al Gore to enter the Presidential race and save all of humanity?

Update (Trent, 10/31):

Chuck Todd, appearing on Tucker last night prior to the debate, offered some predictions about Bill Richardson:

Richardson, though, I think you're going to see Richardson really stop being an aggressive candidate.  I think he has got his one eye on that Senate race.  he probably at some point is going to end up running for the U.S. Senate, probably is going to want Bill Clinton raising money for him in New Mexico.  So Richardson is the guy I'm wondering, will he end up being a helpful surrogate on the stage for Clinton if people stop—start beating up on her too much, where you suddenly see Richardson saying, hey, hey, this isn't what this is all about, and he starts trying to be the nice guy and end up helping Clinton.

Todd sounds particularly prescient considering that many viewed Richardson's debate performance as being particularly protective of Clinton.

Albuquerque Mayor and Senate candidate Martin Chavez (D) speaks out on the state of the campaign so far.  Saying that he thinks that he gets “a bad rap from progressives” for his pro-business proclivities, Chavez takes stock of the two potential opponents that local and national Democrats hope will also enter the primary, Rep. Tom Udall and Lt. Gov. Diane Denish:

Chávez said he isn’t worried. Denish has already raised more than $1 million for a 2010 gubernatorial run, and with Chávez abandoning his gubernatorial bid to instead run for Senate, he said it wouldn’t make sense for her to enter the race. He said he is “not concerned” even if she does enter the race.

He also said he is confident he would defeat Udall in a primary.

“Philosophically, he’s so far to the left,” Chávez said. “I’d rather not have him in the race, but that’s a challenge I’d not shy away from.”

Classy for Chavez to use baseless right-wing talking points in order to put down a respected party player who would likely whip Mayor Marty’s ass in a primary battle.  Chavez might want to take a look at the polls again and see who has more mainstream appeal in the state: him or Udall.  Big hint: Udall would put this race in the bag for Democrats, while a Chavez candidacy would be surrounded by question marks.

Let me be clear: if we’re saddled with Chavez, I’ll sigh heavily and deal with it.  But I think it’s extremely telling that Chavez is already speaking out of school and reading out of the Republican play book in order to prove his strength in a hypothetical primary.  Completely and utterly unnecessary.