Tag: NM-Sen

Pass the popcorn!  It’s time for another divisive Republican primary.  Mere days after jumping into the New Mexico Senate race, Rep. Steve Pearce is already being accused of breaking House ethics rules by his colleague and primary opponent, Heather Wilson:

  Pearce, as part of a campaign-funded “tele town hall,” autodialed an estimated 130,000 GOP members across New Mexico on Thursday evening to chat them up about a vetoed children’s health bill, which he and Wilson disagree on.

  ” …I voted to uphold the veto because this bill has major flaws that are bad for the country, and bad for New Mexico,” Pearce said in his recorded messages leading up to the live, two-hour telephone town hall from his Washington, D.C., home. About 13,000 agreed to stay on the line.

  The Wilson camp, meanwhile, accused Pearce of breaking House ethics rules by urging those he called to contact him through his official, non-campaign phone number or check out his official, non-campaign Web site.

  Wilson deputy finance director Heather Wade in an e-mail to the Journal cited a portion of a House document advising members they cannot advertise their official House Web sites on “materials issued by the campaign.” And Wade maintains the calls were, in effect, campaign materials.

  “In making these phone calls, Mr. Pearce misused taxpayer dollars to run for the Senate…,” Wade said in a written statement.

Nice body blow by Wilson there, who is no paragon of ethics herself.  She certainly isn’t wasting any time getting out in front of the issue.  I look forward to Pearce’s counter-attack, and the ensuing bloodbath.

Race Tracker: NM-Sen

The field is beginning to take shape in New Mexico: yesterday, it was reported that NM-02 Rep. Steve Pearce would join Rep. Heather Wilson in what is shaping up to be a contentious Republican primary, and that Democrat Patricia Madrid will not run for the seat.

While a sizable chunk of the New Mexico GOP’s small bench have thrown their hats in the race, their only statewide-elected official, State Land Commissioner Pat Lyons, has decided against running.

We’re still awaiting a decision from Lt. Governor Diane Denish (D), and rumors are circulating that Rep. Tom Udall, who crushed the GOP competition in a hypothetical poll by SUSA, may be reconsidering his decision not to run.  Stay tuned.

On a final note, in her interview with NM blogger Heath Haussamen, Madrid says that she hasn’t ruled out another run for the vacant House seat of Heather Wilson.  Advice to Patsy: let common sense prevail and enjoy your private sector career.

Stuart Rothenberg approvingly quotes this anonymous bit of advice from a Republican consultant to the GOP on S-CHIP (sub. req.):

So what advice would this Republican give his party’s Members of Congress? “If I were in a swing district, I’d vote to override. There’s no way I’d take a bullet on this. But if I were in a good Republican district, I’d vote to sustain the veto.”

Leaving aside the obvious questions of the morality of this stance, does this even make for good advice?  Amy Walter intimates that the answer is no (sub. req.):

But the political environment is actually worse than it was at this point two years ago, making it very dangerous to assume that a GOP-leaning district will perform exactly as it had four years ago. A depressed GOP base, a very motivated Democratic base and independents still sour on Republicans all works against a return to normal. (Emphasis added.)

And today, a New York Times article on how badly the GOP is hemorrhaging over its opposition to health care for children includes this aside:

Worried about increasing departures, the House leadership has been encouraging Representative Steve Pearce of New Mexico to forgo a run for the Senate and avoid opening a second Republican-held House seat in a state where Democrats are gaining strength. A fellow Republican, Representative Heather A. Wilson, is already running for the seat being vacated by Senator Pete V. Domenici.

Pearce’s district, NM-02, is R+5.7. It went for Bush by a wide 58-41 margin in 2004. Pearce won with 60% of the vote in 2004, and, despite the huge Dem year, with the same total in 2006. In other words, this is not ordinarily a district you’d consider competitive.

But the fact that the NRCC is begging Pearce to stay put says otherwise. It gives a lot of credence to Walter’s observation, and makes you wonder about the kind of advice Republicans on the Hill are getting – and listening to. The NRCC seems to understand what time it is, but it sure looks like a lot of GOPers are happy to let themselves get surprised by another potential blue wave.

So many stories, so little time.  Let’s do some quick hits.

• FL-24: Muck-encrusted Rep. Tom Feeney is going to face a major Democratic challenger next year: former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas.  Kosmas was recruited by the DCCC to run after internal polling showed her in a competitive race against Abramoff associate Feeney.  Glad to have this race filled.  I’m looking forward to taking this crumb-bum on, who recently derided the proposed S-CHIP expansion as a “budget-busting, Cuban-style health care plan”.  Your modern Republican Party in action, folks!
  
• NM-Sen: Chuck Schumer and EMILY’s list are trying to recruit New Mexico Lt. Gov. Diane Denish to consider the Senate race.  Let’s hope Chuck can pull off another miracle here.
  
• IL-11: So get this: two of the Republicans running to succeed scandal-plagued Jerry Weller don’t exactly look formidable out of the starting gate.  New Lenox Mayor Tim Balderman gets the kiss of death by being endorsed by Weller, while Marguerite Murer, a former Bush Administration staffer who ran the Correspondence office for the president, has fun inflating her bio:

  With the civilian rank equivalent to a two-star general, Marguerite charged forward leading Correspondence with solid business principles. From the war on terror and securing our homeland, to Medicare, Supreme Court nominations and the devastating Hurricane Katrina, Marguerite has communicated with millions of Americans. (Emphasis added)

  What a laugh.
  

• WA-08: Darcy Burner posts a big fundraising haul this quarter–$305K raised and $370K CoH, thanks in part to the netroots community during the Burn Bush effort this summer.
  
• NM-01: The Democratic primary is getting a lot more crowded in this open seat race, with state Health Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham formally entering the race today.  The retirement of Wilson has been a blessing and a curse for Martin Heinrich, who was previously seen as the front runner for the nomination.

SurveyUSA has released its first poll showing who New Mexicans would like to see replace Republican Pete Domenici in the US Senate:

Tom Udall (D): 55
Steve Pearce (R): 37

Tom Udall (D): 56
Heather Wilson (R): 38

Bill Richardson (D): 60
Steve Pearce (R): 36

Bill Richardson (D): 62
Heather Wilson (R): 35

Marty Chavez (D): 35
Steve Pearce (R): 56

Marty Chavez (D): 44
Heather Wilson (R): 48

Patricia Madrid (D): 38
Steve Pearce (R): 54

Patricia Madrid (D): 45
Heather Wilson (R): 46

Don Wiviott (D): 23
Steve Pearce (R): 58

Don Wiviott (D): 34
Heather Wilson (R): 51

MoE: ± 4.4%, n=514

While this round of polling is likely a reflection of name-recognition, it does provide us with a valuable baseline.

Of course, it's disappointing to see that a candidate with numbers like Tom Udall has already turned down a run for the seat. And, as of now, Bill Richardson is still running for President.

From the Albuquerque Journal:

I just learned from a source very close to Rep. Tom Udall that the Democratic congressman will NOT seek the U.S. Senate seat that Pete Domenici will vacate at the end of 2008.

The source tells me that Udall, after some serious soul-searching over the past 24 hours, has decided that he can do a better job for New Mexico in the U.S. House, where he has a coveted spot on the appropriations committee.

“It was not a decision that was made lightly,” the source told me. “He wants to continue increasing in seniority in the House.”

I hope this doesn’t mean that we’ll be saddled with a Marty Chavez candidacy.

Race Tracker: NM-Sen

From The Hill:

Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M) will run for the New Mexico Senate seat that is expected to open up officially later Thursday when Sen. Pete Domenici (R) declares that he will not seek reelection in 2008, according to a source familiar with Wilson’s decision.

A Wilson candidacy could prove to be a great twofer for Democrats: her involvement in the US Attorney scandal provides plenty of baggage to damage her Senate chances, and she leaves behind yet another open House seat ripe for the picking (at a PVI of D+2.4, Kerry won the district by three points in 2004).

And, from a Schumer statement via e-mail:

“New Mexico is a state where Democrats have a long history of winning elections, and with a deep bench of talented Democratic candidates, we look forward to fielding a nominee who will wage a successful campaign.  We feel very good about our chances to increase the Democratic majority in the Senate next year.”

Let the games begin.

UPDATE: More reaction from CQ Politics:

New Mexico’s two other House members, Democrat Tom Udall and Republican Steve Pearce, both were said to be mulling bids for the Senate race.

Democratic Rep. Mark Udall of Colorado said his cousin, Tom Udall, has “been planning for this moment,” but noted that Richardson remains a key player in the process. Udall was not expected to announce anything Thursday.
Pearce said he wanted to wait “a respectful time” before making a decision. “We should not be jockeying for position, kicking him out the door,” he said.

In a statement, Richardson said Domenici had been a “respected and powerful champion for New Mexico’s interests” for more than three decades. Tom Reynolds, a spokesman for his presidential campaign, said Richardson remained “100 percent committed to winning the White House.”

Democratic Lt. Gov. Denise Denish, who has been gearing up to run for governor in 2010 when Richardson would be term-limited out of office, said she would consider the Senate race.

“This reshuffles the whole deck in New Mexico,” she said of Domenici’s retirement.

“I’ve been very focused on running for governor and that’s still where my focus is right now, but I think in fairness I need to listen to some people that are talking to me about the possibility of running for this Senate seat and see what they have to say and see what the possibilities are,” she added.

Former New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid also said she was considering a bid for the seat. Madrid lost the 2006 election against Wilson for the 1st Congressional District by fewer than 900 points, and said she expected she would perform better in a statewide contest. “I think that I could run a very credible race,” she said.

With the news of Republican Sen. Pete Domenici’s expected retirement announcement tomorrow morning, let’s take a look at all the rumored candidates on the Democratic side to replace him:

State Attorney General and former 1st Congressional District candidate Patricia Madrid

Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez

US Rep. Tom Udall

Former US Attorney John Kelly

Lt. Governor Diane Denish

Governor and Presidential candidate Bill Richardson

As the Hotline notes, the biggest wildcard here is Richardson.  If he wanted to, he could wait until his Prez bid flames out in the early primary states, as New Mexico has a February 8th filing deadline for the Senate race.  He would undoubtedly be the favorite in the primary and general.  However, how wise (and realistic) is it to wait for a Richardson entry at the 11th hour?

Chavez doesn’t inspire me, for what it’s worth.  I cannot forget this cringeworthy article in which he promised that not only would he not run against Domenici, he’d also vote for him.  On top of that, his endorsed candidates in this week’s city council elections all lost handily.  Ouch.

Jonathan Singer wants Udall.  How about you?  Who should run?  Who will run?

Update: While we’re at it, let’s look at the GOP’s bench in the state: Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce.  Given that Wilson is tarred by the same scandal that dogged Domenici for most of the year, she can no longer be considered a formidable candidate.  Given that the GOP bench is pretty much her and Pearce, that’s disastrous.  Who else could run for them?  Former US Attorney David Iglesias?  Or is he too disgusted with DC Republicans to even join their team anymore?

Anyone?  Anyone?  Bueller?

Race Tracker: NM-Sen

Chris Cilliza has the bombshell:

Veteran Sen. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) is expected to announce tomorrow that he will retire from the Senate in 2008, according to several informed sources, a decision that further complicates an already difficult playing field for Republicans next November.

If this proves true, Republicans have been handed a major disaster in their efforts to retain Senate seats in 2008.  While Domenici's popularity has sagged dramatically from its formerly sky-high levels, few Democrats in the state had an appetite to challenge him.  With the field clear, let's just say that developer Don Wiviott, the highest profile Democrat to enter the race so far (and that's not saying much) will find himself facing a top shelf candidate in the primary very soon.

Race Tracker Wiki: NM-Sen

September was a great month for Senate Democrats. Is started with news that John Warner was retiring, featured the endless saga of Larry Craig’s guilty plea to lewd behavior, saw another crucial GOP seat open up in Nebraska and was marked with recruitment coups with the candidacies of Mark Warner in VA and Jeanne Shaheen in NH. In fact, the only bad news Democrats are fearing now is that Bob Kerrey might end up taking a pass in Nebraska — but even there, the fat lady hasn’t yet sung.

All of this is really icing on the cake for Democrats, who already felt great before Labor Day. Not only is the GOP is defending 22 seats, and the Dems only 12, but the NRSC has been doing poorly in fundraising and recruitment, failing to move to target states beyond… the one state of Louisiana. Democrats, on the other hand, are expanding the map left and right: While they are huge underdogs in TN, KY, NM, TX, and ID, odds are they will at least put one of those in play (just like VA in 2006 and KY in 2004 became competitive only in the last stretch). And the most problematic second-tier seat is turning to be Alaska, where incumbent Ted Stevens is facing significant bribery allegations.

The coming weeks are likely to bring more news that will determine how some of these races shape up. Bob Kerrey’s decision is obviously what everyone is waiting for, but there are other important questions: Will Craig retire as he had promised? Will there be more open seats, with all eyes turned towards SD’s Tim Johnson, AK’s Stevens, and NM’s Pete Domenici? Will Democrats find candidates to run against Dole in NC, Domenici in NM, Stevens in AK, McConnell in KY? All of these races could end up on the map, but Democrats have to succeed in their recruitment efforts first.

The first 4 states are listed after the jump. For the full rankings, go here, to CampaignDiaries.com.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up 4-7 seats.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 5 seats, for a 56-44 majority.

Likely Takeover (1 Republican seat, 0 Democratic seats)

1. Virginia (Open seat; Previous Ranking: 3)

Virginia inaugurates the “Likely Takeover” category.  When John Warner announced he was retiring at the end of August, Virginia immediately became a top pick-up opportunity for Democrats. And events in September certainly didn’t help dispel the notion that this is their race to lose: Very popular former Governor Mark Warner entered the race on their behalf, while the GOP is showing every indication that it is heading towards a divisive primary between moderate Rep. Tom Davis and conservative former Governor Jim Gilmore. To make matters much worse for Republicans, a few polls taken this month show Warner with massive leads of about 25% or more against both Davis and Gilmore.

Republicans argue that Warner has never been fully tested, and that they can lower his ratings by finally going on the offensive against him. While this may be true, Democrats can rest in peace (for now) for two simple reasons: (1) Warner has a lot of room to give before being truly threatened given the massive nature of his lead, and (2) Warner will have plenty of time to re-introduce himself to voters and strengthen their good impression of him.

That said, Tom Davis could make the race more competitive. He represents Northern Virginia, the region that has been trended dramatically blue over the past few years. Any Democrat who wants to win in VA has to carry Fairfax and the neighboring counties overwhelmingly, and Davis could cut in Warner’s margins there. He first needs to win the GOP nomination then. If Republicans nominate their candidate through a primary, Davis has a good chance of winning. But if they opt to nominate him through a party convention, conservative activists could opt for the weaker Gilmore.

Lean Takeover (2 Republican Seats, 0 Democratic Seats)

2. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Previous ranking: 1)

A lot has changed in this race in the past month. At the beginning of September, the Democratic field was composed of three candidates who were hoping to take on Senator Sununu. A few weeks later, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen announced she would enter the race, setting up a rematch of the 2002 election. Two of the three Democrats already in the race (Marchand and Swett) withdrew, leaving Dartmouth Professor Jay Buckley as Shaheen’s sole primary opposition. Many grassroots activists are questioning the party’s rush to rally around Shaheen, a moderate politician who supported the war in 2003 and was not known for being particularly progressive during her terms as governor. But Shaheen is likely to coast to the nomination.

Polls throughout the summer showed Shaheen had Shaheen with gigantic leads averaging 20 points. That put Sununu in an even worse position than Santorum was in in 2006. How can an incumbent who is trailing by 20 points a year before the election possibly come back to win another term? But two polls taken shortly after Shaheen jumped in the race made Democrats a bit more confident. Shaheen only led by 5%. That is enough to make her the favorite (an incumbent in the low 40s rarely survives), but certainly not enough to count Sununu out.

Republicans argue that they beat Shaheen before, and they will use the same tactics against her in 2008. They see her record on taxes as particularly prone to attack. But Sununu barely edged Shaheen in 2002, at the height of Bush’s popularity. The GOP took a drubbing in New Hampshire in 2006, and the Republican brand looks even worse today — what fundamentals can Sununu rely on to come-back?

3. Colorado (Open; Previous ranking: 2)

This race has not made much news lately, probably because the basic story-line was settled months ago: Senator Allard retired, and both parties rallied around a candidate. Rep. Udall for Democrats, and former Rep. Shaffer for the GOP. Colorado has been voting for Democrats in open seat races in the past few years (the Salazar brothers in 2004, Governor Ritter in 2006), and have to be considered slightly favored here again. A recent poll commissioned by the Shaffer campaign gave Udall a 5-point lead. That certainly shows the state could still end up going for Republicans, but the poll was a partisan one, so it should be taken with a big grain of salt. This race will certainly shift around on the basis of future polls and campaign developments, but for now it is remarkably static.

Toss-up (4 R, 1 D)

4. Nebraska (Open; Last Ranking: 8)

Chuck Hagel announced his retirement last week, setting up what many people view as the marquee race of the 2008 cycle: former Republican Governor Mike Johanns versus former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey. Both men were rumored to be very interested in the race, but for now only Johanns has announced his candidacy. Recent reports indicate that Kerrey might be leaning against a run after all!

This race’s outlook will change dramatically in the coming days, as Kerrey is likely to announce his intentions very soon. If he does run, the race might edge into “lean takeover” territory — given Kerrey’s popularity in the state. If he ends up staying out of it, this race would drop down significantly, Johanns would be the favorite even if Omaha’s Democratic Mayor Fahey agrees to jump in. Fahey would keep the race competitive, but he would find it difficult to overcome the state’s overwhelming Republican lean, especially in a presidential year.

The second hope Democrats harbor is that Johanns will be stuck in a divisive primary. The state’s Attorney General Bruning had been planning to run against Chuck Hagel in the primary, and he is showing no intention of backing down now that Johanns is in the race. Former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub entered the race for a few days, ran ads, and then decided to withdraw, setting up a two-way primary. This could prove an opening for the Democratic candidate (either Kerrey or Fahey) who would have time to introduce himself to voters and define the terms of the campaign.

Full Rankings are available here, with full detailed rankings of all 34 races!