Tag: NM-Sen

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP

The two most dispirited people after hearing the news of Martin Chavez dropping out of the Senate race have to be Republican Senate candidates Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce.  The two will almost undoubtedly be involved in a contentious and expensive Republican primary, while Udall coasts to easy victory in the Democratic contest.

That will allow Udall to raise more money and have near-universal support among Democrats in the state.  Udall would have almost undoubtedly received a majority of the support of Democrats in the primary.  But the damage Chavez could have done while in the race attacking Udall while attempting to gain traction could have proved fatal to Udall’s chances in the general election.

More under the fold.

But thanks to Chavez’ dropping out of the race, Udall moves even further ahead of his Republican colleagues in the House.  The Udall camp must have been positively giddy to hear the news; to keep that happiness in the Udall campaign offices, pitch in a few bucks to the Udall campaign.  C’mon, it won’t hurt.  

But what about Chavez?  There was some fear among Democrats that Chavez would again change races (he previously abandoned his gubernatorial run for the Senate run) and go for the open First Congressional District seat.  Currently, Martin Heinrich, Michelle Lujan-Grisham and Jason Call are in the race on Democratic side.  I have heard from some people in the know (and Kos agrees) that Chavez will not go for the Congressional seat.

Will he go back to his ill-fated race for governor?  Doubtful. Chavez had a reason for dropping out of the race for governor, and I’m not sure if all that much has changed for his reasoning; if anything, Denish looks even more entrenched as the frontrunner and heir presumptive to Richardson’s post.

So that means Marty is done politically after his second term as mayor and Kos will get his fondest dream, right?  After all, he is term-limited and there aren’t really any other positions in the state to run for (I don’t think I can see Chavez as the Lt. Gov.).  Nope.  He might run for a third term as mayor, challenging the term limits.

Remember this piece from the Albuquerque Tribune a year ago?  

The City Charter might limit the mayor to two consecutive terms, but Martin Chavez doesn’t think that would stand up in court.

Chavez, who is serving his second consecutive term as mayor, said last week he might consider trying for a third term, or running for governor or the U.S. Senate.

Governor?  Tried, failed.  Senate? Tried, failed?  Third term as mayor? …

It’s been quite the day for dropouts, hasn’t it?  As you may have read by now, Markos’ sources are telling him that Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez is dropping out of the New Mexico Senate Democratic Primary.  Heath Haussamen says that other high-ranking Dems in the state believe the report to be accurate.

If confirmed, the news will spare Udall from a potentially nasty (and possibly racially divisive) primary.  So it looks like Tom can sit back while Pearce and Wilson clobber each other to death for the GOP nomination.  Not a bad deal.

UPDATE: Yup, it’s official:

“Tom Udall has my full support. I will work to help him and all Democrats get elected throughout our great State of New Mexico and our Nation. As Mayor, I have many new, exciting programs that I want to bring to fruition. I want to spend my remaining time in the Mayor’s office being the very best mayor possible for all of the citizens of my home town.” Chavez said.

Tom Udall will get his Senate campaign off to a blazing start tomorrow, where he will make his formal announcement on the turf of his primary rival, the loathsome Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez:

Udall is scheduled to announce Thursday at the National Hispanic Center in Albuquerque, the first stop on a three-day, nine-city announcement swing that will wind up Saturday night in Santa Fe.

Chavez has been touting that he is the only native New Mexican and Hispanic in the race for Senate. But Udall is expected to try to demonstrate that he has backing among Hispanic New Mexicans too and support outside his congressional district from his tenure as state attorney general.

“The next three days are about Tom’s announcement and getting around the state to show his strength,” said Udall spokeswoman Marissa Padilla.

Udall also plans stops in Los Lunas, Las Cruces, Silver City, Clovis, Las Vegas, Mora and Taos over the three days.

A good show of force by Udall, who gave us a taste of what’s to come in a press release earlier today:

“As a prosecutor, state attorney general and congressman, I have stood strong for New Mexico values,” Udall said in the release. “I am proud to bring my proven record of leadership to the United States Senate.”

“New Mexicans know my record on issues like reducing domestic violence and DUI, improving access to health care and education, protecting our Constitutional freedoms, conserving our natural treasures and ending the misguided war in Iraq,” he said. “New Mexico deserves a senator who has the courage to do what’s right, and I have the integrity and experience they can trust.”

New Mexico FBIHOP has Udall’s full schedule.

Ask local political gossip blogger Joe Monahan, and he’ll tell you that Udall should “watch out for the alligators“.  One such alligator, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, has a vicious bite:

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

Another SurveyUSA poll was released, and this time, they included primaries in their polling.  Not only that, they polled an amazing 1700+ people, resulting in some ridiculously-low MOEs (below three percent).  So these are some pretty accurate polls.  enough jibber-jabber, let’s get straight to the numbers.

In the Republican primary, Heather Wilson is surprisingly strong and is trouncing Steve Pearce, 56-37.  Yes, you read that correctly, Wilson is already twenty points ahead of her Southern NM counterpart, with only four percent undecided.

In the Democratic primary, Tom Udall is similarly ahead of Albuquerque mayor Martin Chavez, by a 62-32 margin.  This is even larger than the internal poll released by Udall, which showed Udall ahead of Chavez by a 50-30. Since then, Santa Fe small businessman and green-developer Don Wiviott has dropped out of the Senate race to pursue Udalls now-open House seat.

In the general, Udall is still looking strong, though the gap has begun to close a bit between Udall and his Republican opponents. Chavez, however, continues to bounce around the polls.

Trendlines from polls taken [10/27-10/30] and (10/05-10/08).

Pearce (R) 40% [–] (37)
Udall (D) 54%  [–] (55)
Undecided 5% [–]

Pearce (R) 52% [43] (54) 
Chavez (D) 42% [48] (35)
Undecided 7% [9]  (9)

Wilson (R) 41% [–] (38)
Udall (D) 56%  [–] (56)
Undecided 3% [–]

Wilson (R) 47% [44] (48) 
Chavez (D) 46% [48] (44)
Undecided 7% [8] (8)

Where Udall really distinguishes himself is among the self-described moderates and liberals.

Against Pearce, Chavez garners the support of just 4 percent of moderates and 68 percent of liberals.  Compare this to Udall, who has the support of 63 percent of moderates and 85 percent of liberals.  This is a shocking disparity for Chavez, showing that liberal Democrats really, really do not like Chavez.

The same can be seen against Heather Wilson.  Chavez has the support of just 51 percent of moderates and a better 73 percent of liberals. But Udall eclipses both of those numbers, with 66 percent of moderates and 86 percent of liberals. 

Similar numbers can be seen among party identification, with Udall doing better among both Democrats and Independents than Chavez.  And, it goes without saying, Udall does better than either Wilson or Pearce in these categories as well.  Among Independents, the only match-up where the Republican does better is Pearce vs Chavez.

The polls were taken 11/16/07 through 11/18/07 by SurveyUSA.

There is much talk about the New Mexico Senate race, about how this is one of the top pick-up opportunities for us in 2008, but considering this, there has been a surprising lack of analysis of the primary fields (this is especially true of the Republican field). It is very important to take a good look at both fields and look at what is each one's strengths, weaknesses, and get a good insight into what the general election might look like depending on who is running.

The Democrats 

Most of us are already pretty much aware of how the Democrats stack up with each other, and pretty much understand where their primary will go, but for the hell of it, let's look at it again: 

Tom Udall – Udall is generally seen at the frontrunner for both the Democratic primary and the General election. In the primary Udall's strengths include strong support from both the national and state party, strong enthusiasm from the grassroots, electability, a solid base of support from the Democratic stronghold in the third district and state-wide recognition from being attorney general. His possible weaknesses include his lack of running for a competitive race leaves him feeling complaciant.

 Martin Chavez: Chavez is the underdog, decidedly in the primary and less obviously, in the general election. His main strengths in the primary include his ability to claim that he is an “outsider” candidate, that he has run in a competitive city and managed to win, thus giving him some experience in competitive elections. His weaknesses are that his support among the Democratic base is both shallow and narrow, local Democrats don't like him; he already lost a statewide election to a relatively unpopular governor, his fundraising base is limited (more so with Richardson's state organization likely to work against Chavez); and the only possible avenue to grant him victory is to smear Udall which will further harm his campaign. Chavez is the “Republican-lite” candidate.

 Tom Udall is the odds-on favorite to win the primary, because he has a much wider and deeper base of support among Democrats than Chavez and has a much better fundraising advantage, and polls and money tend to move each other.

 

 The Republicans

This is the race which is not quite as clear-cut as the Democrats. There have been many people who seem to think Steve Pearce is favored to win the nomination, but just how accurate is that? Let's look into it:

 Steve Pearce: Well, like I mentioned above, Pearce seems to be considered the favorite to win the Republican primary. Pearce's major strengths in the primary include a stronger support base than Wilson with state Republicans (representing what we refer to as “Little Texas”). His weaknesses are that he has not really fought a competitive election, and while his base is good, he doesn't show the ability to make gains nor does he seem to have a very strong fundraising base. In addition to this, he doesn't appear to be electable (state Democrats agree that they would have no problem beating Pearce in November), this can very easily be used against him.

Heather Wilson: Wilson is seen as being the underdog for the nomination, yet seen as a stronger candidate in the general election (at least compared to Pearce). Her strengths in the primary include a better campaign organization and experience in winning despite being the underdog (or simply put, she's a better candidate than Pearce). Her weaknesses include a much weaker level of base support among Republican grassroots (she doesn't inspire all that much enthusiasm among the Conservative base). Wilson is essentially “Democrat-lite”

I understand why people think that Pearce is the front-runner for the nomination, but honestly, Wilson's in a much better position to win it than people . She's got a lot of experience in fighting uphill battles, and Pearce, while having a stronger support base among Republicans, is going to have a hard time expanding on it. With Udall likely to seize the Democratic nomination, Republicans are probably more open to elect their “warrior”, so to speak. I don't think I can call anyone the true “favorite” here, but my gut tells me that Wilson is going to win the nomination.

 

 General Match-ups

 Tom Udall vs. Steve Pearce: This is basically the clash of the bases, and Udall is heavily favored to win this fight. Plainly put, they both faced the same type of challengers in 2004 and 2006, throwaways, yet Udall took 69% and 75% respectively while Pearce only took 60% in both elections. Udall's support base is stronger, he is going to be better financed, and he starts off with a solid lead. Pearce doesn't have the campaigning skills nor the financial organization to match Udall, period.

 Martin Chavez vs. Steve Pearce: This is Republican-lite vs. Republican, with Pearce slightly favored to win. Yeah, I know that it's a strongly Democratic year and there are more Democrats than Republicans, but the general consensus among the liberal base is that Chavez would be the “lesser-of-two-evils” guy, thus weakening his base of support. Chavez's financial number would likely improve if he won the Democratic nomination, but he still would likely have less money than Pearce (of course the DSCC would be more than able to make up the difference and then some). If you can't count on your base to vote for you, it makes it difficult to win. Chavez might be able to make up the difference with moderates and independents, but his loss in 1998 against then-Gov. Johnson, makes this argument seem less plausible.

 Tom Udall vs. Heather Wilson: This is the Democrat vs. Democrat-lite race, with Udall favored (though not nearly as heavily as the Udall vs. Pearce one). Basically Wilson suffers from base-skepticism (much like Chavez does). The difference between Wilson's predicament and Chavez's predicament is that she is a much better candidate than Chavez in that she can probably rally her base to vote against Tom Udall than Chavez would be able to to vote against Steve Pearce. Having said that, Udall, in addition to having a more solid support base than Wilson, will also enjoy a financial advantage, especially with the DSCC able to dump money into the race. The real danger that Udall will face is becoming too comfortable with the lead, Heather Wilson is dangerous in that she knows how to come back from behind and she knows how to run a solid campaign. Like I said before, Udall is favored to win this race, but Wilson is definitely a threat which Udall would have to take very seriously.

 Martin Chavez vs. Heather Wilson: The battle of the lites, with Wilson the favorite to win. Here's where neither base likes either candidate, but in this case, the Democratic base dislikes Chavez more than the Republican base dislikes Wilson. Wilson, whatever her flaws, at least had the brains to not declare support for Bingaman's re-election. Wilson will have a solid fundraising advantage over Chavez, a better campaign organization, and is an adept campaigner compared to Chavez. On top of that, the only way Chavez wins the nomination to fight Wilson will be to smear Tom Udall, which will leave a lot of bitterness towards Chavez among Democrats, thus making it even harder to secure the base. Simply put, Wilson will beat Chavez if it comes down to it.

Looks like Heather Wilson’s much-hyped fundraiser with Vice President Dick Cheney in DC tonight was a bit of a bust:

Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M.) was expected to raise about $110,000 for her Senate campaign Thursday night at a Washington fundraiser with Vice President Dick Cheney, according to a source close to Wilson. […]

Wilson’s fundraiser, held at the Capitol Hill Club, was set to raise about half of the $110,000 from political action committees and half from personal contributions.

In fairness, $110K is not a bad haul for a fundraiser.  But this wasn’t just any other fundraiser — this was an event with one of the heaviest hitters on the GOP bench, Grand Moff Cheney himself.  For comparison’s sake, let’s flashback to September, when Cheney raised a much healthier $275,000 for Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO), who will be facing a competitive race against ex-Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes (D) next year.  A few short months later and the combined powers of Wilson and Cheney could barely crack $100K for one of the top tier Senate races in the nation next year?  Weak.

Or perhaps Cheney’s heart just wasn’t into it.  The event wasn’t a formal endorsement of Wilson’s campaign, so perhaps he spent the evening sighing wistfully and thinking of Steve Pearce.

(From the diaries. Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP. – promoted by James L.)

Albuquerque mayor Martin Chavez has been touting his roots to New Mexico.  Just take a look at his bio on his campaign site:

A native son of New Mexico, Martin Chávez was born and raised in Albuquerque, New Mexico. His family’s roots in New Mexico have been traced to the 1500s.

Many New Mexicans who have had family in the state for generations are proud of their “native roots”.  These are the people who can name their family back to the Spanish settlers.  But the Albuquerque Tribune asked an interesting question: What role will being the only “native son” play in the Senate election?

After doing a bit of research, probably not much.

“When given a choice, New Mexicans usually prefer a native son.”
-Mark Fleisher, Martin Chavez Campaign Manager

It sounds great.  Sounds completely plausible; after all, even Stephen Colbert planned on running for President (but only in South Carolina) as a “favorite son.”

But in New Mexico, where you were born or grew up does not seem to make much of a difference in whether or not New Mexicans will vote for you.  After all, as the Tribune article wrote:

[A]ll three of the other leading contenders for the Senate – Reps. Tom Udall, a Santa Fe Democrat, Heather Wilson, an Albuquerque Republican, and Steve Pearce, a Hobbs Republican – were born outside New Mexico.

They are all Representatives with multiple elections under their belt — and have defeated “native sons” along the way.

Most recently, Heather Wilson defeated Patricia Madrid in the 2006 election by less than a thousand votes.  While Madrid was born in Las Cruces, NM, Wilson only moved to Albuquerque in 1991. 

In the Second District, Steve Pearce defeated native son Gary King (Stanley, NM) in 2004.  And King even has the pedigree of a father (three-time governor Bruce King) who was also born in New Mexico.  Pearce did, however, move to Hobbs at the age of two.

Udall has easily defeated all comers in the Third Congressional District in recent years, but his closest call came against then-incumbent Bill Redmond; a Chicago native.  Before Redmond, the seat was held by now Gov. Bill Richardson.

Richardson was born in Pasadena, CA, and did not move to Santa Fe, NM until 1978.  He ran for Congress against longtime incumbent Manuel Lujan in 1980 and lost.  He succeeded in 1982.  Richardson defeated John Sanchez (55-39) in 2002; Sanchez was a native of Albuquerque.  He then easily defeated Santa Fe-born John Dendahl in 2006, with a record margin.

The last time Chavez ran for statewide office, for governor in 1998, he lost to Gary Johnson.  Johnson was born in South Dakota.  I could not find, however, when exactly Johnson moved to New Mexico.

While Chavez will continue to tout his nativeness to the state, in the grand scheme of things… it probably doesn’t make a whole lot of a difference.

With Tom Udall entering the race for the open Senate seat of the retiring Pete Domenici, there is yet another open House seat in New Mexico.  And Santa Fe green developer Don Wiviott is going to switch his campaign over from the Senate race to the race for the now-open Third Congressional District seat.

Democracy for New Mexico first reported on the change, saying, “Don intends to seriously explore running for Congress in NM-03.”  Later yesterday, Heath Haussamen got a quote from Wiviott saying he would officially change over to the House race.

Read what he had to say under the fold.  Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

Wiviott said Udall is a friend, in addition to being his congressman. He will defer to him in the Senate race, but said he plans, in running for Udall’s House seat, to stay in the fight to end the Iraq war, protect the environment and improve the education system.

Wiviott loaned himself $400,000 and raised an additional $137,189, so he will enter the House race with a significant amount of campaign cash to play with.  It will be some time before we find out exactly who will oppose Wiviott.  We know, however, that state Rep. Peter Wirth will not seek the job.

As for the Democratic side of the Senate race, Jim Hannan said immediately following Domenici’s retirement a month ago he would drop out of the race if Udall stepped in.  But Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez and Mother Media editor Leland Lehrman both vowed to stay in the race for the US Senate seat.

Chavez’s campaign manager was confident in Chavez despite the Udall entry into the race.

Chavez’s campaign manager Mark Fleisher said today that the mayor believes he absolutely can beat Udall. Fleisher says the mayor is known around the state probably as well as Udall.

Udall and Chavez’ opponent Lehrman issued a press release explaining why he would not back off his run for Senate:

Although his votes on the environment and civil liberties make us all proud, his Washingtonian willingness to avoid tough issues means that he cannot be trusted with the leadership role a US Senator must take.

One example Lehrman gave was Udall’s vote to table a bill which would start impeachment hearings on Vice President Dick Cheney, a proposal set forth by Dennis Kucinich.

Heath Haussamen, who by now should be a household name among political junkies, again has the goods on Don Wiviott, a developer who had been running a longshot bid for Senate for a good portion of the year:

Wiviott said Udall is a friend, in addition to being his congressman. He will defer to him in the Senate race, but said he plans, in running for Udall’s House seat, to stay in the fight to end the Iraq war, protect the environment and improve the education system.

“You have to have the courage of your convictions. That’s why I started in this. That’s why I remain in it,” Wiviott said. “I’m committed to either raise or spend whatever it takes to win (the House race).”

Wiviott will be joining a potentially crowded field for the nomination for the Dem-leaning seat.  Other names mentioned as possible candidates include Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya, Sheriff Greg Solano, State Auditor Hector Balderas, ex-state Rep. Patsy Trujillo, Espanola Mayor Joseph Maestas, state Public Regulation Commissioner Ben Ray Lujan, and New Mexico Highlands Regent Javier Gonzales.

That’s a long list of possibilities.  Whatever the case, the next nominee for this D+5.5 district should be suitably progressive.  While I was never convinced that Wiviott, a political neophyte, had the necessary gravitas for the Senate race, he’ll deserve a long look — along with the other candidates — for the House nomination.

Race Tracker: NM-03