Evidence of Tom Davis’ impending retirement continues to mount. Red Virginia is reporting that Davis’ campaign manager will soon be on his way out.
Tom’s campaign manager Nick Meads is rumored to be leaving the campaign and returning to his home state of Pennsylvania. This is a HUGE LOSS on top of Foreman and the 2 Chris’s. Who is next, Dave Thomas???
I think it’s a matter of when Davis has his next job lined up before he formally announces the obvious.
Virginia Democrats have nominated Phil Forgit, a navy vet and a guy who ran a close race for the House of Delegates in a very conservative district back in 2003, as their candidate for the Dec. 12 special election to fill the seat of the late Rep. Jo Ann Davis (R).
On the GOP side, the second ballot results are in, and so far businessman Paul Jost, the chairman of the VA Club For Growth and an ally of ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore (R), is leading the field:
SECOND BALLOTING FINISHED:1) Paul Jost got 126.51 votes
2) Sherwood Bowditch got 105.43 votes.
3) Chuck Davis got 85.30 votes.
4) Delegate Rob Whitman got 82.55 votes.
5) Jim Bowden got 62 votes.
6) Delegate Dick Black got 59 votes.
7) David Caprara got 37 votes. (DROPPED OUT AND ENDORSED DAVIS)
The Shad Plank is keeping up to the minute tabs on all the GOP action. I’m not too familiar with Jost, but given his deep ties with the Club For Growth, I’ll be very intrigued by this race should he be the nominee.
Update: According to Raising Kaine, Republicans have nominated Delegate Rob Wittman. Should Wittman win the special election in December, perhaps former Delegate Al Pollard (D), who recently lost a very close race for the state Senate, might be compelled to run for his old seat in the Virginia House.
Let’s tally up all the turnovers in statewide and legislative races last night. Democratic pick-ups are in blue; Republican pick-ups in red. Italics denote a close race that appears to be going to a recount.
If we missed something, please let us know in the comments.
Today’s the day! Below is a list of poll closing times and races to watch in five states:
| State | Polls Close | Races to Watch | Results | Key Blogs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | 6pm and 7pm EST | Governor/Lt. Gov, Secretary of State, Attorney General, Auditor, Treasurer, Agriculture Commissioner | KY SoS | Bluegrass Report |
| Mississippi | 8pm EST | Governor, Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, Auditor, Treasurer, Agriculture Commissioner, Insurance Commissioner, SD18, SD29, SD43, SD46, SD52, HD12, HD20, HD43, HD99, HD102 | MS SoS | Cotton Mouth |
| New Jersey | 8pm EST | SD01, SD02, SD08, SD12, SD39, HD01 (x2), HD02 (x2), HD08 (x2), HD11 (x2), HD12 (x2), HD14 (x2), HD39 (x2) | NJ.com | Blue Jersey |
| Ohio | 7:30pm EST | OH-05 Special Primary | OH SoS | BSB | ODB |
| Virginia | 7pm EST | SD01, SD06, SD22, SD27, SD28, SD33, SD34, SD37, SD39, HD32, HD33, HD34, HD40, HD50, HD51, HD52, HD67, HD83, HD86 | VA SBE | Raising Kaine |
Special thanks to The Green Papers, which was the source for several of the poll closing times. One note: the New Jersey state House races are listed slightly oddly, as each numerical district actually has two seats up for grabs.
If you have any races happening in your area that aren’t on this list, let us know in the comments. And if you’d like to give any predictions for any of today’s contests, now is the time to share them. How many counties will Ernie Fletcher win in Kentucky? Will Bob Latta prevail in Ohio? How far will Virginia Democrats go?
Other useful links: PoliticsNJ’s race ratings | WaPo’s key Virginia races
Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) has been the talk of retirment rumors following his decision not to run for the US Senate. Those rumors were reinforced today by news that Davis poured $400,000 of his available $1M COH into the hard-fought re-election campaign of his wife, State Senator Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis.
“He already said he is not running for the U.S. Senate next year, and there’s been a lot of speculation he is going to retire from the House,” said Sean O’Brien, director of the Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership. “This is going to get the rumor mill going even more that he isn’t going to run again and will not need that money. On the other hand, he is supporting his wife, who is a moderate Republican like him.”
Considering that his district scores a PVI of R+0.6, it certainly seems like Davis is tossing aside much needed cash if he's planning on running for re-electiton.
Now that a Senate bid appears to be off the table for Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA), Roll Call reports that the congressman might throw in the towel completely in an announcement that could come as soon as Thursday:
Published reports Monday night indicated that Davis is rethinking his long-awaited Senate bid, and Congressional sources said Tuesday that a run for re-election also may be off the table for the seven-term Congressman. […]Now some knowledgeable sources on Capitol Hill are saying that if he’s not moving up then Davis likely will be moving out, regardless of the fact that he would be a strong favorite for an eighth term in 2008.
Davis admitted earlier this year that he considered retiring before the 2006 election. He said he decided to run again in part because he believed the poor political climate in the previous cycle would have enabled Democrats to pick up his Northern Virginia seat.
A Davis retirement would open up a district that’s been trending hard in the Democratic direction over the past decade. Al Gore lost the 11th district by a 7 point margin in 2000, but Bush squeaked by Kerry by a single point in ’04. In recent statewide victories for Democrats, the 11th has voted strongly for Warner, Kaine and Webb.
If Davis wants to challenge Sen. Webb in 2012, a retirement would make little sense — especially if he traded in his current job for a plum gig as a DC lobbyist, as some are speculating. But perhaps Davis just wants to cash in while he still can.
We at Twenty-First Century Democrats won’t give up in Virginia until the last poll closes on November 6! We already told you about how Virginia Republicans have been pulling out plays from Karl Rove’s book of dirty tricks. But we’ve been fighting back hard. Thanks to a group of dedicated progressives we’ve been on the ground making a difference in these important races.
Twenty-First Century Democrats has had teams of canvassers in several districts across Virginia. We have knocked on 2,254 doors and talked to hundreds of voters about our candidates and their progressive goals for the state. In addition, we made a direct contribution to the Virginia Democratic Senate Caucus on behalf of our endorsed candidates: Albert Pollard (VA-28) and Janet Oleszek (VA-37). But we are not finished yet! Election Day in Virginia is coming up on November 6th, and we’re redoubling our efforts to help Turn Virginia from RED to BLUE!
The upcoming State Senate races in Virginia are vitally important. Not only are they winnable, but they present a real opportunity to change the map in Virginia and beyond. These are the last State Senate races before the 2010 census and with a Democratic majority in the State Senate we will have a voice in the redistricting process. Success in Virginia this year will set the stage for bigger victories in congressional races in the future – even the Presidential race in 2008. It may seem like a long way off, but winning today will help us build a lasting progressive majority tomorrow.
If you live in the Washington DC metropolitan area and would like to join us as we fight for Democrats in Virginia, please contact us at info@21stdems.org.
In another blow to Republican Senate hopes, Rep. Tom Davis, considered their party’s best shot at holding the seat of retiring Sen. John Warner in the red column, is set to abort his candidacy in a public announcement this week (possibly as early as Thursday). Chris Cillizza adds that it is not yet clear whether Davis will retire from the House or not.
That leaves the field clear for GOP stalwart and former Gov. Jim Gilmore to proudly wave the conservative flag in the election against the formidable Democrat Mark Warner.
This could turn into the most boring Senate race of the cycle. But hey, I won’t complain.
Sounds like Tom Davis has the blues. Or at least, he’s seeing nothing but blue after his party gave former Gov. Jim Gilmore the upper hand in securing the GOP nomination and Democrat Mark Warner posted a massive $1.1 million fundraising haul in under three weeks:
But Davis said at a breakfast at the National Press Club on Tuesday that both recent developments factor into his decision and suggested that he might instead run for freshman Sen. Jim Webb’s (D-Va.) seat in 2012, or not run for Senate at all.Davis is also a strong candidate on K Street and could be drawn to a lobbying job.
“There are other races; this isn’t the only shot,” Davis said. “You’ve got a very vulnerable guy sitting there in the other Senate seat right now who may or may not run in four years. And you know what? If you don’t go to the Senate, so what? I’ve been a committee chairman in the House. I’ve got my portrait hanging on a wall. I’ve been pretty productive legislatively.”
There have been rumblings of late that Davis is having second thoughts about running, but he insists his mind was never made up. […]
“Our calculation has been that, if you can get everything in line, it’s a doable race,” Davis said. “But if I have to spend eight months slogging through a party convention, talking to 15,000 Republicans around the state where they’re going to ask you how conservative you are, that does not set you up very well for a general election.”
Sounds like Tommy D has lost the fire in his belly. Who could blame him? Perhaps he’ll wave goodbye to the House, too.
The intense focus on the presidential primaries and the 2008 elections make it easy to forget that there are places around the country with important races this year. The 2007 Virginia legislative elections are a perfect example of this phenomenon. The State Senate elected this year will vote on the creation of new congressional districts following the next census – affecting state and national politics for the next decade. If Democrats want to expand the playing field for presidential and congressional elections, it is essential that we do not allow the Republicans to redraw the lines again in 2010. The entire State Senate is up for election and the Democrats only need to pick up 4 seats to end the Republican majority.
Two of the best opportunities to grab seats in the Virginia Senate are Janet Oleszek (Fairfax) and Albert Pollard (Stafford County, Northern Neck). Their campaigns are working hard to turn these critical seats blue, and judging by the dirty politics being practiced by their opponents, the Republicans are terrified. Janet’s opponent, ultra-conservative Ken Cuccinelli, has repeatedly either misrepresented or lied about her record and positions. (Check out GoodbyeKen.com’s blog for a full accounting of his misbehavior.) But recently Cuccinelli sunk to a new low when he sent voters a manila envelope that read: “Notice: Your new Fairfax County income tax payment is due,” with the sender identified in bold letters as the “Fairfax County Income Tax Authority” (which does not exist). Of course, voters who opened the letter expecting to receive a notice from the government instead found a Cuccinelli campaign flyer attacking Oleszek.
When asked about the deceptive mailer, Cuccinelli tried to say that it was a “gimmick” and part of his “marketing campaign.” Well, Cuccinelli may think that it’s OK to play games with Virginia voters, but this type of deception is unacceptable – especially when it is used to mislead people like the elderly.
Albert’s opponent in the race for Virginia’s 28th Senate district, Republican Richard Stuart, has been telling Virginians that Albert voted to tax farmers and small businesses. The truth is Albert introduced a bill in the Virginia House of Delegates to exempt farmers and small businesses from having to pay the estate tax.
It is critical that we do not allow Republicans to steal any more elections with this type of duplicitous behavior. We at 21st Century Democrats are committed to helping candidates like Janet and Albert combat Republican misinformation campaigns. We have launched a ‘Virginia – Red to Blue – Action Plan’ to replace dishonest Republicans with dynamic, forward-thinking Democrats committed to effecting positive change.
(If you are in the Washington, DC metropolitan area you can come knock on doors with us and help these candidates win by talking directly to voters. If interested, please contact us at info@21stdems.org)
This election is critical! We simply cannot allow the Republicans to continue to win by distorting Democrats positions and playing on voters fears. Please donate some time or money over the next 22 days and let’s make sure that Virginia voters get the Democrats’ REAL records — not misleading Republican rhetoric.