Tag: Virginia

Former Gov. Jim Gilmore must be smiling at the news:

Republican leaders gave former Gov. Jim Gilmore a boost today by choosing to hold a convention to nominate the party’s candidate to run for the U.S. Senate next year.

The party’s state central committee voted 47 to 37 to hold a convention rather than a primary.

Gilmore, the more conservative choice, is seen as having an edge among the party’s inner circle over the more moderate Rep. Tom Davis.  However, his personal appeal in the state is severely weakened by his embarrassing record as Governor.  Did the Republicans just hand Mark Warner a Senate seat on a silver platter?

What’s more, the prospect of a convention could cause Davis to walk away from the Senate contest altogether:

There was speculation that Davis, now, would not seek the nomination, leaving the field to Gilmore. A Davis spokesman said he would announce his intentions after the Nov. 6 General Assembly elections.

A non-candidacy by Davis would make picking up his House seat, which is trending in favor of Democrats in federal races, a much more difficult task.

Republican reaction can be found here.

In a new poll released by the Washington Post, former Gov. Mark Warner continues to crush his potential GOP foes:

Mark Warner (D): 63%
Tom Davis (R): 28%

Mark Warner (D): 61%
Jim Gilmore (R): 31%

(MoE: ±3%)

My favorite nugget of the poll?  This one:

In Davis’ own base of Fairfax County, Warner beats Davis 57%-33%. And among self-described conservatives, whom Gilmore has been courting, four in ten say they would vote for Warner.

So let’s get this straight: in Tom Davis’ backyard, where name recognition is no problem for him, Mark Warner’s numbers are barely dented.  Perhaps it’s not surprising, given that Warner enjoys a 67%/17% favorable/unfavorable rating throughout the state.  Fairfax voters may think well of Tom Davis, but they like Mark Warner a whole heck of a lot more.  So much for the idea of a tight race in NoVa with Tom Davis at the helm.

Speaking of Davis, are we being too presumptive in thinking that he’ll get the nomination?  The poll also shows Davis trailing former Gov. Jim Gilmore by a 48-29 margin in a primary match-up… and that’s assuming a primary even happens (it could be decided by a nominating convention, in which Gilmore is seen as having the inside edge on the more moderate Davis).

Here’s an interesting nugget from Virginia: a poll testing the strength of Democratic challenger Chap Peterson, who is going up against Republican incumbent Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis, the wife of Rep. Tom Davis, in Virginia’s 34th state Senate district this November.  First, a few caveats about the poll: 1) Not Larry Sabato, the source of the poll, has a good track record of getting inside dope in Virginia, but we don’t know anything about the poll other than its results–crosstabs, margin of error, or even the name of the pollster.  2) State legislative districts are notoriously difficult to poll.  It’s difficult to get a good sample in a small voter pool (it’s hard enough with a congressional district) like a state senate district in Virginia (which contain under 200K people).

That said, take it or leave it (Pollster Unknown, 9/23-24; July results in parens; n=406):

Chap Peterson (D): 46 (38)
Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis (R-inc.): 36 (39)
Undecided: 17 (22)

The battle between Peterson and Devolites-Davis is seen by many as a proxy war of sorts between Tom Davis and former Gov. Mark Warner, who are both vying for the seat of retiring US Senator John Warner.  The poll also tests their strength in the state Senate district, which NLS describes as “the heart of the 11th district”, Tom Davis’ political base:

Mark Warner (D): 53
Tom Davis (R): 35

If this poll is at all accurate (and that’s anyone’s guess, given the questionable track record of state legislative race polls), Tom and Jeannemarie have their work cut out for them in Northern Virginia.

So, Politico is saying that Mark Warner is indeed going to be running.

Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner has often spoken of the two options he must choose from: a Senate bid in 2008, or a return to the Governor’s mansion in 2009.  There is also the talk of a third “choice”: accepting a hypothetical VP nomination on the Democratic Presidential ticket next year.

Today in Roll Call (subscription only), John McArdle takes a closer look at Warner’s deliberations.  The big news is: Warner will reveal his decision sooner rather than later.

Monica Dixon, a senior adviser to the former governor, said Wednesday that her boss intends to make his political plans known sometime “within the next week or so.”

Warner would face a tough choice.  Known to have Presidential ambitions (he terminated a potential 2008 candidacy last year), Warner is said to enjoy the executive lifestyle of the Governor’s office, and another successful gubernatorial term could be more helpful in a Presidential campaign than having to deal with the baggage of a Senate term.  But an open Senate seat in Virginia would be his to lose, and could add another dimension to his resume:

But people who know Mark Warner well say a Senate bid makes sense for him at this point in his political career.

Steve Jarding, Warner’s campaign manager during his 2001 gubernatorial run, said he has advised his old boss to make the jump to the Senate.

“He’s been a chief executive now,” Jarding said. “He knows that playing field and he performed well in Virginia. … He accomplished a lot. And I think that part of who Mark is is complete.””

When Mark Warner lost to John Warner in 1996, “there was a part of him who thought that [the Senate] isn’t the best place [for him],” Jarding added. “But that was then, and I think he has since then come a long way.”

[…]

Rhett Walker, a political consultant in Virginia who has been involved in numerous statewide political campaigns, said a Senate seat would not only improve Warner’s name recognition outside of Virginia, but also provide him with experiences that he couldn’t get serving in state office.

“Although the common wisdom has been that it’s better to run for national office as a governor, I personally think [Mark Warner] is looking at the trend that people are going to be demanding more experience on international and national defense,” Walker said. “Leading a trade mission in Virginia is one thing, but that is no substitute for getting true experience with international affairs and national defense, which you would be getting in the U.S. Senate.”

Jarding also adds that biding his time for a VP slot would be too frustrating for Warner:

“I think he’d be on anybody’s short list and would be a tremendous choice” for vice president, Jarding said. “But my own sense is that … Mark looks and says, ‘I’m not going to wait for someone else to make a decision. I need to make a decision for what I believe is in the best interest of those who I want to serve … and if that means that takes me off the [vice presidential] list, then so be it.’

“I’ve been in the business a long time,” added Jarding, a veteran political operative who currently works for Sen. Tim Johnson (D-S.D.). “I believe that any time you put yourself in a situation where you make a decision based on what you predict somebody else might make you probably made a bad decision.”

Unlike Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, it looks like Mark Warner won’t be teasing us for too much longer.

During the past few weeks, we’ve all watched the Republican party continue to implode. First Karl Rove resigned, then Alberto Gonzales’s reign at the Justice Department finally came to a close. This week, we saw another intolerant, far-right Republican exposed as a hypocrite.

But while these events might give us some encouragement, we’ve still got a lot of work ahead of us if we’re going to bring about real progressive change. In the DC area, local elections are beginning to ramp up, and these can go a long way in affecting communities. At Twenty-First Century Democrats, we’re jumping in and hitting the ground running to help progressive local candidates build the foundation for national change.

Our September schedule is packed. We’ll be helping out four different campaigns this month – knocking on doors, dropping literature and coordinating our results with the various campaigns we are supporting. Starting this Saturday, our team will be in Central Baltimore for an all day walk on behalf of Fred Mason III We’re working with SEIU/1199, the Baltimore Federation of Teachers, HERE/UNITE and the Victory Fund to get the vote out for the September 11 primary.  We’ll also spend two full days in Virginia on for Albert Pollard and Carlos Del Toro in Stafford County and in Fairfax for the Janet Oleszek campaign.

Every one of these candidates deserves our support. 

We believe that each of them, when elected, will carry progressive values and legislative smarts into their new jobs. We’ll keep you updated on our progress.

In the meantime, what local races are you interested in?

Thanks,
Shannon Scanlan
Twenty-First Century Democrats

If you ever watched the movie “Top Gun”, this guy is the real thing and he’s running for Congress as a Democrat according to Raising Kaine.

As a Naval Flight Officer, I led over 200 people as a commanding officer of a fighter squadron and I was a TOPGUN instructor.  I am a combat veteran of Operation Iraqi Freedom and I was one of few aviators awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross for valor in combat.  Upon my return, I worked directly for the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. I am a leader, and I understand first-hand the complexities of this war and the need to create an exit strategy to bring our troops home safely.

I have a Bachelor of Science in Aerospace Engineering from the U.S. Naval Academy.  At the graduate level, I have a Master of Arts in National Security Studies and a certificate in legislative studies from Georgetown University.  I’ve studied economics for a term at Oxford University in England.  I?ve completed a political candidate training program at UVA?s Sorensen Institute, and I was a national security fellow at MIT’s Seminar XXI fellowship program.  For a living, I sell Navy jet aircraft for Boeing. 

I am most proud of my role as husband to a wonderful wife and father to two terrific kids.  I ask you to join me as I fight to change America?s future and improve our lives in Virginia?s 11th District.  Please vote for me on November 4, 2008.

Well, he apparently assumes there will be no primary, which there will be if Tom Davis leaves the seat. This guy looks like he comes out on Central Casting and is definately worthy of a look.

(A solid synopsis of an opportunity lost – promoted by James L.)

VA-02 was a target seat this year for a Democratic Party takeover of the House. Freshman Thelma Drake (R-Norfolk) seemed ripe to topple. After Iraq War Veteran David Ashe (D), who lost to Drake in ’04 55-45%, dropped out of the race to pave the way for Virginia Beach Commissioner of Revenue Phil Kellam (D), things were looking pretty good. Kellam, member of a well known Virginia Beach Democratic political family, was the only Citywide elected Democratic Official, this city accounts for approximately 71% of the District’s population. Drake hails from the smaller though Democratic leaning Norfolk. Virginia Beach is historically Republican at both the National & Local level, though Gov. Tim Kaine (D) narrowly carried the city in 2005 and carried the district by 3.02%, former Gov. Mark Warner came within 0.15% of carrying the District in 2001. Besides the City of Viginia Beach, the District includes 23 (+ 2 AT/CV) Precincts in the City of Norfolk, 12(+2 A/T) precincts in the City of Hampton  and the Eastern Shore Counties of Accomack & Northampton.  (More after the flip.)

In my quest to discover why Kellam was unable to unseat Drake in a District I had called home for almost two decades, I did a little research and located two websites: Not Larry Sabato and Vivian J. Paige of Norfolk.
The links will lead you to not only their analysis of what happened here but blog comments from those even closer to the ground or with a differing perspective.
My personal take was re-affirmed on the following points:
1. The Kellam Political dynasty is not a reliably powerful entity and is unknown to many of the transient voters in the Distict, read: of little impact.
2. Kellam avoided debates with Drake after his initial and only debate with Drake in mid-June. His performance in that debate was perceived as “unsteady” by the press.
3. Grassroots/Ground Support was too light.
4. Kellam failed to clearly delineate himself as much different from Drake politically & ideologically. Granted in this conservative leaning-Military heavy District that might seem like a good thing but I don’t think it worked to Kellam’s advantage in the type of Wave year we just saw.
5. Momentum damage from disclosures about Kellam’s past.
6. Failure to secure major newspaper endorsement in the District and failure to dent the potenially vulnerable Drake in the press.
7. Lack of coordination with VA Dem Party major leaders for campaign support.
8. The RNC Robocalls against both Kellam & Webb.

Take a look at these links and the information contained within and see what you think.

A look back at the 2nd Congressional District
http://notlarrysabat…

Kellam: the turning pointhttp://vivianpaige.w…

Thanks to both those sites and the Commentators for dissemination of this information.
Election Results VA-02
2004 Pres
Kerry-D  101,576 41.53% 
Bush-R 141,097 57.69%
2005 Gov
Kilgore-R 64,955 46.79% 
Kaine-D 69,153 49.81%

2006 Sen
Allen-R 89,145 51.04% 
Webb-D 83,268 47.67%

2006 VA-02
Drake-R 88,777  51.27%
  Kellam-D  83,901  48.45%

Congressional District Map Link:
http://en.wikipedia….