Tag: Public Policy Polling

PPP (pdf) (6/28-30, Kentucky voters, 5/1-2 in parens):

Jack Conway (D): 43 (40)

Rand Paul (R): 43 (41)

Undecided: 14 (19)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Rand Paul (last seen comparing the current predicament of the United States to the fall of the Roman Empire) is in a tricky position: the more people learn about him, the less they seem to like him. As increased scrutiny has shone on Paul in the weeks since his victory in the Kentucky GOP primary, voters say by a 38-29 margin that the coverage has made them less likely to vote for him (with 33% saying it made no difference). In other words, all the pre-primary hype about Paul was that he was an outsider… and now people are finding out belatedly that he’s an outsider for good reason.

Paul’s favorables are now negative, at 34/42, while Jack Conway is much less known, giving him more upside: he’s at 31/29. Still, the decline in Paul’s fortunes hasn’t changed the toplines much since PPP’s last look at the race two months ago (PPP has always had the Dem-friendliest numbers of any pollster in this particular race). As with many other races in the Appalachian arc, it may boil down to which disliked figure people like even less in November: Barack Obama (37/58) or Paul.  

• CO-Sen: Republican candidate Ken Buck has a couple pieces of good news today: one, he’s the recipient of $172K in independent expenditures from mysterious conservative group Americans for Job Security. And two, Jim DeMint‘s coming to town on July 8 to stump on Buck’s behalf

• NE-Sen: Ironically, on the same day that he was the deciding vote in the Senate’s failure to extend unemployment benefits, Ben Nelson announced that he won’t be making an appearance in the unemployment lines himself in 2012. He confirmed that he plans to run for re-election.

• SC-Sen: The profile of Lindsey Graham in the New York Times magazine is well worth a read. While it serves to make me like him a little more, I’ve gotta wonder if he’s even going to bother running (or at least running as a Republican) when he’s up again in 2014, considering it’s just going to tick off the teabaggers even more. He derides the Tea Partiers, saying they’ll be gone in a few years, “chortling” that Ronald Reagan would have a hard time getting elected as a Republican today… and also has a good laugh at the rumors about his sexual orientation, instead of, y’know, punching the interviewer in the nose or something unequivocally manly like that.

• WI-Sen, WI-Gov: PPP rolls out a last batch of numbers from their Wisconsin sample, looking at the Republican primaries in the Senate and gubernatorial races and seeing them as foregone conclusions. On the governor’s side, Milwaukee Co. Executive (and legendary 60’s crooner) Scott Walker leads ex-Rep. Mark Neumann 58-19, while in the Senate race, Ron Johnson leads Dave Westlake 49-11.

• WV-Sen: OK, so the rumor today is that things are still on for a 2012 special election to replace Robert Byrd, not a 2010 one as suggested yesterday. Gov. Joe Manchin and Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin are sending signals that they won’t call for a legislative special session to shift the election date to this year, despite the decision by SoS Natalie Tennant to have it in 2012.

• AL-Gov: Here’s one more politican trapped in the semantic quicksand that seems to be developing around the issue of stateside service during Vietnam. Alabama GOP runoff contestant Robert Bentley has drawn some heat for the words “Hospital commander” and “Vietnam War” appearing on-screen in one of his TV ads. Bentley was ranking medical doctor at Pope AFB (in North Carolina) during the Vietnam era, although he didn’t serve physically in Vietnam.

• FL-Gov: Now the supposed hero of 9/11 has RINO cooties, too? Rick Scott’s camp sent out press releases yesterday attacking opponent Bill McCollum for having supported “pro-abortion, pro-homosexual” Giuliani for President, back in those heady days of, say, 2007, when it was assumed that Giuliani was going to steamroller everyone else in the Florida primary.

• MD-Gov: Republican ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich picked a running mate for his 2010 campaign, and, no, he’s not giving Michael Steele his old job back. He picked Mary Kane, who was the SoS under Ehrlich (an appointed position in Maryland). She’s from Montgomery County, suggesting he sees the route to 50%+1 through this increasingly-blue suburb.

• OR-Gov (pdf): Republican pollster Magellan is quickly becoming one of the most prolific purveyors of public polls, this time with a look at the gubernatorial race in Oregon. They join the consensus that this is a deadlocked race right now; they find Republican Chris Dudley leading Democrat John Kitzhaber by a paper-thin 41-40 margin. Dudley has 41-27 support among independents. They also offer an interesting breakdown by CD; it’s OR-04 that’s keeping Dudley in this, giving him a 44-38 edge, while predictably, Kitzhaber dominates in OR-01 and OR-03, Dudley sweeps OR-02, and they fight to a tie in OR-05.

• WY-Gov: OMG! Stop the presses! Veteran character actor and widely trusted commercial pitchman for products for old people (and Wyoming resident) Wilford Brimley has made an endorsement in the GOP gubernatorial primary. He’s backing state Auditor Rita Meyer. No word on whether he was won over by her pro-oatmeal stances.

• NJ-07: There’s an internal poll out from a Democrat? Not only that, but it’s from one who’s been totally off the radar, as national Dems seem to have ceded the 7th to freshman GOPer Leonard Lance. While the “informed ballot” numbers are the ones getting promoted (we at SSP think informed ballot questions are good… for us to poop on), there are legitimate toplines in there too, with Lance leading Ed Potosnak by a not-so-imposing 43-30. Lance also has a weak 31/46 re-elect number in the Garin Hart Yang poll.

• NM-02: Construction liens seem to be the common cold of political scandals, but Democratic freshman Harry Teague is in an uphill battle to retain his GOP-leaning seat and probably wouldn’t like any bad PR. He personally, and the four oil and gas industry companies he controls, are facing a civil lawsuit over failure to repay loans to purchase equipment.

• Ohio: PPP has some odds and ends left over from their Ohio sample. Two items are on the bad news side of the ledger, although only barely: a generic House ballot test for Ohio (where there are at least five competitive Democratic holds) has Republicans leading Democrats 44-43, and GOP ex-Sen. Mike DeWine is leading appointed Democratic AG Richard Cordray 44-41 in the Attorney General’s race. (Screw that; what about SoS race numbers?) The good news is that Sherrod Brown’s favorables have rebounded quite a bit since PPP’s last poll; he’s now at 38/38.

• NRCC: More expectations management from the NRCC? After previous pronouncements that John Boehner was looking to pick up 436 100 seats, now he’s sending out a fundraising e-mail that touts a 39-seat pickup as their target.

• RGA: Haley Barbour’s rolling around in a trough full of money today: the Republican Governors Association hauled in $19 million in the last fundraising quarter. Also suggesting that GOP fundraising is kicking into higher gear, American Crossroads, the Karl Rove venture that earned a whopping $200 in May, had a much better June: they raised $8.5 million.

PPP (pdf) (6/26-27, Ohio voters, 3/20-21 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 40 (36)

Rob Portman (R): 38 (41)

Undecided: 22 (23)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Quinnipiac (6/22-27, Ohio voters, 4/21-26 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 42 (40)

Rob Portman (R): 40 (37)

Undecided: 17 (21)

(MoE: ±3%)

Well, the two nationwide pollsters left that I trust anymore are both out with new polls in the Buckeye State. In the Senate race, both PPP and Quinnipiac find a two-point lead for Democratic Lt. Governor Lee Fisher over Republican ex-Rep. Rob Portman, which is consistent for Quinnipiac but a significant reversal for PPP, who had Portman leading three months ago.

Barack Obama approval isn’t very high in either poll (45/49 in Quinnipiac, 42/54 in PPP), but PPP’s Tom Jensen thinks that anger towards Washington, in a counterintuitive way, may help Fisher: Portman is a creature of the Beltway, while Fisher is a long-time fixture in Columbus. GOPers might argue that Portman’s problem is low name recognition, which he can fix with his large financial advantage, but his “not sures” aren’t that much bigger than Fisher’s: according to PPP, Fisher’s faves are 28/27 while Portman’s are 22/25.

PPP (pdf) (6/26-27, Ohio voters, 3/20-21 in parens):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 41 (37)

John Kasich (R): 43 (42)

Undecided: 16 (21)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Quinnipiac (6/22-27, Ohio voters, 4/21-26 in parens):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 43 (44)

John Kasich (R): 38 (38)

Undecided: 15 (17)

(MoE: ±3%)

We don’t get agreement from PPP and Quinnipiac on the governor’s race. PPP gives a tiny lead to Republican ex-Rep. John Kasich while Quinnipiac gives a slightly bigger lead to Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland. Interestingly, that’s consistent too; PPP has repeatedly taken a dimmer view of Strickland’s chances than Quinnipiac.

The difference seems to be that PPP finds Strickland (37/48 approval) much more unpopular than Kasich (28/30 faves), while Quinnipiac finds both of them in positive territory (44/42 approval for Strickland, 28/19 faves for Kasich). My only hunch is that the differential may have to do with PPP’s current use of a very loose LV screen, while Quinnipiac has been polling RVs (although note that Qpac now is saying it’s polling “Ohio voters,” so I’m left wondering if they too are moving toward a hybrid LV model like PPP).

PPP (pdf) (6/26-27, Wisconsin voters, 3/20-21 in parens):

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 45

Ron Johnson (R): 43

Undecided: 12

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 45 (48)

Dave Westlake (R): 38 (31)

Undecided: 17 (21)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

There was a general sense of Russ Feingold having dodged a bullet when ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson decided not to run (in PPP’s March poll, Feingold led Tommy Thompson 47-44). In a bit of a surprise, though, likely GOP nominee Ron Johnson performs about as well as Thompson, trailing Feingold only 45-43. PPP’s Tom Jensen speculates Republicans may have actually done themselves a favor here by running a fresh face (Johnson) instead of the stale Thompson; with only 20/18 favorables right now, Johnson does certainly have a lot of upside. (Feingold’s approval is 42/42.) Of course, on the other hand, some of Johnson’s support now may simply be because he’s something new and different, and while Thompson had some moderate crossover appeal, the very conservative Johnson may not have much of that once the candidates start talking about specifics.

PPP may have run into a more conservative batch this time than last time; today’s sample broke 48 Obama, 47 McCain, and it’s also apparent in the trendlines for the low-profile Some Dude in the race, Dave Westlake. Regardless, it’s a pretty clear signal that Russ Feingold (and the DSCC, unfortunately) are going to have to fight this one out.

• AZ-Sen: Wow, ultimate blowhard J.D. Hayworth actually realized he was in an untenable situation and had to apologize… for his having appeared in an infomercial touting “free grant money” seminar ripoffs. (He was unapologetic on Monday when the story broke, saying Republicans’ two favorite words: “buyer beware.”)

• CO-Sen: The Denver Post has a must-read profile of Ken Buck’s time as a federal prosecutor in Colorado, focusing on a 2000 case where he declined to file charges against gun shop owners, suspected of illegal sales, that he knew from local Republican circles. The incident ended with Buck resigning in 2002 to take a job as counsel for a construction company, after receiving a letter of reprimand and having to take ethics courses. (Ironically, the US Attorney who issued the letter of reprimand is Republican now-AG John Suthers, who probably would have been the GOP’s strongest Senate candidate here had he decided to run.)

• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon is accusing Rob Simmons of running a “stealth campaign,” despite his having “suspended” his operations. Simmons’ name remains on the ballot, and he still has a skeletal staff, although apparently for fundraising purposes and to help other local candidates… but it seems pretty clear he’s keeping his engine idling in the event that the McMahon campaign implodes, which is probably the source of her chagrin. McMahon is also out with a new ad, which, for the first time, features her admitting to her past as pro wrestling impresario (instead of just vagueness about being a “businesswoman”); she says that pro wrestling “isn’t real” but “our problems are.” Yeah, tell Owen Hart it isn’t real…

• KS-Sen: Sarah Palin sez: Get a brain, Moran! Well, she didn’t quite say that, but she did tell her Facebook legion to support Todd Tiahrt in the GOP Senate primary in Kansas instead of Jerry Moran. Social con Tiahrt trails fiscal hawk Moran in the polls, though.

• NV-Sen: There’s more amazing dirt today on the Independent American Party, the right-wing third party in Nevada that included Sharron Angle as a member back in the 1990s. The party, during that time period, paid for a bizarre anti-gay flier (referencing “sodomites” and “brazen perverts”) to be included in local newspapers. The party’s other pronouncements during this time included prohibiting “the financing of the New World Order with American taxes” and eliminating “the debt money system.”

• TX-Sen (pdf): PPP has approval numbers for Kay Bailey Hutchison as part of their Texas sample this week, and they might give her some pause about running for re-election in 2012 (which she’s on the fence about, apparently). Her futile run for Governor seems to have hurt her standing, as her overall approval is 37/43 and it’s only 47/37 among Republicans. On the question of whether she should run again, Republicans are split 43/43, and maybe most alarmingly for her, 39% of Republicans think she’s too liberal while 46% say she’s about right. It definitely creates an opening for a teabagger challenge, if she does run again.

• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman’s trying an interesting damage control approach, having taken harder hits from the California Nurses’ Association than anyone else. She’s doing a targeted direct mailing to nurses’ homes, offering her side of the story, saying “don’t take the union boss’s word for it.”

• FL-Gov: I didn’t think super-rich Rick Scott really needed any intervention from outside groups, as he’s able to pay his own way. But he’s getting $1.5 million worth of advertising bought on his behalf by a 527 called “Let’s Get to Work.” It’s yet another anti-Bill McCollum ad, questioning his work as a lobbyist as well as his immigration stance.

• IA-Gov: Terry Branstad, who picked little-known state Sen. Kim Reynolds as a running mate yesterday, is now trying to sell her to the state’s social conservatives, letting them know that she’s really one of them (even if they hadn’t heard of her). Branstad, of course, is trying to head off an indie bid by vanquished primary foe Bob Vander Plaats. There are two other Branstad-related articles you might check out today: one is a piece from the Univ. of Minnesota’s Smart Politics on the success rates for ex-Governor comebacks (bottom line: it’s a pretty high rate (63%), although that’s usually for open seats, not against incumbents). And the other is a Politico look at the possible resurgence of the mustache in politics: Branstad, along with John Hoeven and John Kitzhaber, is wearing the ‘stache with pride (unfortunately, we can’t say the same about Ron Sparks anymore).

• IL-Gov: While nobody seems interested in challenging Scott Lee Cohen’s 133K signatures (five times as many as needed), Democrats are still weighing other legal methods of dispatching Cohen. While Cohen’s situation is unusual and there aren’t court cases on point, it’s possible the state’s sore loser law would prevent him from winning a Dem nomination, resigning it, and subsequently launching his own indie bid for a different office.

• SC-Gov: Here’s what initially seems like a big surprise, but is symptomatic of the rocky relations between the country-club wing of the state GOP and the Mark Sanford wing (of which Nikki Haley is a member). The state’s Chamber of Commerce just endorsed Democratic nominee Vincent Sheheen, suggesting that the GOP’s old-boy network in SC may take desperate measures to keep Haley out. The animus, at least on the surface, seems driven by efforts by Sanford (and Haley, in the legislature) to reject federal stimulus funds. Nice to see something of a public admission that, at the end of the day, big-business Republicans like to see government spending on the infrastructure that they, y’know, need in order to successfully do business, as opposed to the teabaggers’ empty-headed anti-government nihilism.

• TX-Gov: A Texas judge yesterday blocked the Green Party from the ballot in November, which ought to help Dems’ chances if the gubernatorial race winds up close. Moreover, the investigation into who was behind efforts to get the Greens onto the ballot in Texas (and conceivably save Rick Perry) has turned up some remarkable evidence: that Perry’s former chief of staff, Mike Toomey, personally paid for efforts. Toomey paid a monthly stipend for six months to the organizer of the petition drive. (That drive failed, but a subsequent one bankrolled by mysterious group Take Initiative America later succeeded; Democrats, however, blocked the Greens from qualifying, saying that Take Inititative’s $500K operation was an illegal in-kind contribution to the Greens.)

• KS-01, KS-04: SurveyUSA has polls of the Republican primaries in two dark-red districts in Kansas. In the 1st, state Sen. Jim Barnett (probably the most moderate figure in the race) is still in the lead, at 23. Someone by the name of Tracey Mann has surged into 2nd place at 20, from 4 in the last poll of this race in February (probably by virtue of consolidating the Tea Party vote), while CfG choice state Sen. Tim Huelskamp is at 18. Rob Wasinger is at 11, Sue Boldra is at 8, and Marck Cobb is at 2. And in the 4th, it’s a dead heat between two businessmen: Mike Pompeo is at 39 while Wink Hartman is at 37. (Pompeo is the insider here; he’s an RNC committeeman.) State Sen. Jean Schodorf is at 8, with Jim Anderson at 6 and Paji Rutschman at 1. They also look at the Dem primary, where Raj Goyle, despite his fundraising prowess, is only at 42-32 against “retiree” Robert Tillman. Looks like Goyle might need to expend some shoe leather to avoid going the route of Vic Rawl.

• PA-11: Rep. Paul Kanjorski is some Beltway-media hot water, after delivering a very convoluted sentence at a financial reform bill hearing on the topic of foreclosure prevention that made it sound like that “minorities” weren’t “average, good American people.” Extended parsing of the sentence seems to suggest that he was actually taking issue with Republican characterizations of the types of people who wind up in foreclosure. Still, any time that the crusty Kanjorski, facing another tough challenge from Lou Barletta this year, has to spend digging out of his own holes is too much.

• TN-08: With the hard-right rabble whipped up into such a froth that anything short of punching Democrats in the nose is seen as RINO collaborationism, this can’t bode well for Stephen Fincher’s primary hopes. Fincher voted in the May 2010 Democratic primary for local races. Fincher offers the excuse that, with no GOP primary, it was vote in the Dem primary or not vote at all, but that undercuts his own attacks on Ron Kirkland for his occasional Dem-voting past. (wtndem has more in his diary.)

PPP (pdf) (6/19-21, Pennsylvania voters, 3/29-4/1 in parens):

Dan Onorato (D): 35 (32)

Tom Corbett (R): 45 (45)

Undecided: 20 (23)

(MoE: ±4%)

Yesterday’s release from PPP of their gubernatorial numbers aren’t quite the good news that their Senate numbers were (which saw Joe Sestak consolidating Democrats post-primary, and shooting up into a tie with Pat Toomey). While Republican AG Tom Corbett is flat, Democrat Dan Onorato (the Allegheny Co. Executive) didn’t seem to capture as much of the unity bounce as did Sestak; he only rose three points. (Bear in mind that this is the same sample that broke 48 McCain/47 Obama.)

If there’s good news here, it’s that Democrats and liberals are noticeably more heavily undecided than Republicans and conservatives. Dems are 22% undecided (and breaking 57-21 for Onorato) while GOPers are 14% undecided (and breaking 74-12 for Corbett). But we’re getting to the point where Onorato needs to not just nail down the undecided Dems but also flip some of the Dems who are going for Corbett. As I’ve bemoaned before, though, he’s up against two problems; one is his near-Some Dude-ness in the face of Corbett’s high profile (not just because of his statewide office but because of his Bonusgate prosecutions), and two is Pennsylvania’s clockwork eight-year alternation between parties for Governor.

• AZ-Sen: Chances are you’ve already seen this video, but if you haven’t, check out ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth going the full Matthew Lesko, pitching seminars for how to get free government grant money. Typical teabagging mindset at work: I hate the gub’ment! Except when it’s giving me money for doing nothing!

• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon, I’m sure, is from the “all PR is good PR” school, but this still has to go in the “bad PR” column. The widow of a professional wrestler who died in a 1999 stunt gone awry is suing both the WWE and McMahon personally.

• NH-Sen: Making your first TV ad a negative one isn’t really a sign of strength, but in this case, I’m sure Paul Hodes thinks he has something potent here. His first ad hits Kelly Ayotte for being asleep at the switch as AG during the collapse of Financial Resources Mortgage. Hodes’ ad includes footage of Ayotte’s widely-panned testimony before state legislators last week, framing it as an almost-Gonzales-esque litany of evasions.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Quinnipiac polls the Empire State, and like Rasmussen, finds intensely competitive races brewing… oh, who am I kidding; Dems are crushing, as usual. Kirsten Gillibrand beats Bruce Blakeman 46-26, and beats David Malpass 47-25. Blakeman beats Malpass 14-11 in the GOP primary. Interestingly, they seem to have decided not to poll Joe DioGuardi (who other polls have seen as the GOP primary’s frontrunner) this time, who did not get a ballot slot at the convention but seems to be at work trying to petition on. On the gubernatorial side, Andrew Cuomo beats Rick Lazio 58-26 and beats Carl Paladino 59-23. Lazio wins the GOP primary over Paladino, 46-17.

• FL-Gov: Bill McCollum got a lifeline of sorts from the Tea Party community, with an endorsement from ex-Rep. Dick Armey, now one of the movement’s chief cat-herders at FreedomWorks. This looks like an endorsement from Armey individually, though, not from FreedomWorks. Filing day also came and went: independent candidate Bud Chiles filed at the last moment, and Alex Sink also found herself with an unexpected Democratic primary challenger, although one of the “perennial candidate” variety (Brian Moore).

• GA-Gov, GA-Sen: SurveyUSA takes a look at the Georgia races, but unfortunately only at the already-thoroughly-polled primaries. On the Dem side, ex-Gov. Roy Barnes’ comeback is well underway; he’s out of runoff territory at 63, leading Thurbert Baker at 13, David Poythress at 5, Dubose Porter at 4, and three Some Dudes at 1. On the GOP side, the question seems to be who makes the runoff against John Oxendine. Oxendine is at 34, followed by Karen Handel at 18 and Nathan Deal at 17. If Eric Johnson’s late push is going to succeed, he has a big climb: he’s at 6, down near the weirdos like Ray McBerry (at 3). They also look at the Democratic Senate primary (Michael Thurmond leads 68-11 over R.J. Hadley), and some downballot races too (click the link for those… maybe most interesting, Carol Porter, wife of Dubose Porter, is doing a lot better than her husband; she’s leading the Dem Lt. Gov. primary).

• CT-04: After having had to pull the plug on his campaign after he wound up without enough valid signatures to qualify, Tom Herrmann (First Selectman of Easton) threw his backing to state Sen. Dan Debicella in the GOP primary.

• FL-08: Here’s some more grist for the mill for those who think that the local Tea Party is nothing more than an Alan Grayson plant to split the conservative vote in November: one of the candidates running for the State House under the Tea Party aegis is Victoria Torres, a consultant who did $11,000 worth of polling work for Grayson. (Amusingly, her polling “firm” is named Public Opinion Strategies Inc., not to be confused with the prolific Republican internal pollster Public Opinion Strategies.) Meanwhile, appointed Sen. George LeMieux just threw his support to ex-state Sen. Daniel Webster, despite the NRCC’s seeming preference in the GOP primary for businessman Bruce O’Donoghue.

• IA-03: It’s not surprising this is a close race, given Rep. Leonard Boswell’s long history of underwhelming performances, but these numbers may a little too-good-to-be-true for GOP state Sen. Brad Zaun. His internal (taken by Victory Enterprises) gives him a 41-32 lead over Boswell. The party registration composition looks hinky (43 D-38 R-19 I, instead of 38 D-30 R-32 I), but it still should be a big red flag for Boswell.

• KS-03: State Rep. Kevin Yoder’s new web video has him walking with his wife through a field, with several small children in tow. There’s one slight problem: Yoder doesn’t have any kids. (Yoder’s CM believes that the kids in question are nieces and nephews, not rentals.)

• LA-02: Bayou Buzz points to a couple possible speedbumps on the road for Democrats expecting to take back the 2nd from accidental freshman Rep. Joe Cao, in the form of two potential independent candidates. Orleans Sewerage and Water Board member Tommie Vassel, and prominent black minister Byron Clay, are both floating the idea of independent bids. That’s presumably to avoid the pileup of establishment candidates (state Reps. Cedric Richmond and Juan LaFonta) in the Dem primary, but the questions are a) whether they pull the trigger and b) if so, are they well-known enough to create a big-enough spoiler effect to save even Cao?

• MS-01: Facing a strong challenge from state Sen. Alan Nunnellee, Democratic Rep. Travis Childers could use some good news, and he just got some: he got the endorsement of the NRA.

• NY-16: This is the first (and apparently last) I’d heard of state Assemblyman Michael Benjamin’s interest in running in the Democratic primary against Rep. Jose Serrano. Benjamin said he won’t run against Serrano this year, but is watching with great interest to see what happens with redistricting in 2012; he might run then if a second majority-minority seat centered in the Bronx gets created.

• PA-03: The Susan B. Anthony List (the bizarro-world version of EMILY’s List, focused on electing anti-abortion candidates) has Kathy Dahlkemper in its sights after her vote in favor of HCR. They’re laying out $300K to help her GOP opponent Mike Kelly.

• SC-04: Politico has a look at how Rep. Bob Inglis has gotten very little help from his congressional Republican colleagues, suggesting that they (like us) have been doing the Inglis Deathwatch for the last year and, whatever they may think of him personally, don’t see him as a good repository for their political capital. Inglis, who’s likely to lose the GOP runoff to the more rhetorically-conservative Trey Gowdy tonight, has received money from only two GOP colleagues this cycle (both of whom are also despised by their bases: Lindsey Graham and Dan Burton). He hasn’t gotten any NRCC help either, despite their earlier all-out efforts to help fellow incumbent Parker Griffith in his primary.

• VA-02: One other GOP internal poll to report: Scott Rigell has one from POS, giving him a 41-35 lead over Democratic freshman Rep. Glenn Nye. (No other details about the poll were discussed.) This comes in the context of a larger question over the recent blitz of GOP internal polls, and strange silence on the Democratic end: do the Democrats just not have good news in those districts to counter with, or (as many have speculated) are they engaged in a bit of expectations gaming/rope-a-dope?

• $$$: Remember how fearsome the Karl Rove-founded 527 American Crossroads was going to be, and how it was going to be some sort of unstoppable killing machine? The big-donor-oriented group set a target of $52 million raised this year, but they’ve raised a grand total of $1.2 million so far, with a whopping $200 last month. (That’s not $200K… it’s $200.)

• Polltopia: With everybody seemingly buzzing about the “enthusiasm gap!” all the time (or maybe that was just for the duration of yesterday, a lifetime ago in politics), PPP’s Tom Jensen simply shrugs. He points to huge GOP enthusiasm advantages in his polling of recent races like PA-12 (where the GOP lost) and NJ-Gov (where the GOP only narrowly won). He also points to Democratic advantages in generic ballot tests among likely but only the “somewhat excited” or “not very excited.” As long as those less-excited voters still show up (as they did in, say, PA-12), their votes still count just as much.

PPP (pdf) (6/19-21, Pennsylvania voters, 3/29-4/1 in parens):

Joe Sestak (D): 41 (36)

Pat Toomey (R): 41 (42)

Undecided: 18 (22)

(MoE: ±4%)

PPP gives us the second tied big-name race of the day, this time in Pennsylvania. Enough time seems to have passed since the Democratic primary that any immediate bounce effects have probably worn off, and the net result is a pure tossup between Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak and Republican ex-Rep. Pat Toomey.

Most of Sestak’s gains come from consolidating Democrats behind him; he was drawing only 59% of Dems three months ago, but now he’s up to 70%, while Toomey has the support of 73% of GOPers. Toomey leads 41-21 among independents, but indies make up a much smaller part of the Pennsylvania electorate than most other states. Sestak and Toomey have very similar favorables (29/28 for Sestak, 30/28 for Toomey), so unless something happens to redefine one of them, this is going to be all about turnout. And with a rather Republican-leaning sample here (it went for McCain 48-47 in 2008), that means that if Dems can coax out a few more currently-unlikely voters, they should be in position to pull out the victory.

Public Policy Polling (pdf) (6/19-21, Texas voters, 2/4-7 in parens):

Bill White (D): 43 (42)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 43 (48)

Undecided: 14 (10)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

For a Texas Democrat in 2010, those are some very strong numbers. Jensen has more:

In almost every race in the country right now Republican voters are more unified around their candidates than Democrats are and independents are leaning toward the GOP. Texas is running against the national grain on both of those counts- White is winning 15% of Republicans while Perry gets just 10% of Democrats and White also has a 42-36 advantage with independent voters.

Perry’s job approval is underwater at 36-49, but that’s actually a slight uptick from February, when Perry’s rating was a dismal 33-50. Among independent voters, Perry’s approval is a brutal 27-55. With an A-grade recruit in former Houston Mayor Bill White at the helm, that all adds up to the rare opportunity for a Democratic pick-up in a solid red state like Texas. While the odds are still steep, this should be a fun race to watch.

Public Policy Polling (pdf) (6/12-13, likely voters, 4/1-5 in parens):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 30 (33)

Bill Brady (R): 34 (43)

Rich Whitney (G): 9 (NA)

Undecided: 27 (24)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

If you have a 27/50 approval rating — as Illinois governor Pat Quinn currently does — that means you’re rather unlikely to win an election. There are a few other governors who are plumbing these depths of unpopularity, but they aren’t running for re-election (or in the case of Jim Gibbons, already got bounced in the primary).

Quinn should feel lucky that the GOP put their worst foot forward with Bill Brady, though, as he’d be probably be in unsalvageable territory against, say, Kirk Dillard. A majority have no opinion about Brady, and those who do are split at a tepid 22/22. That gives Quinn the opportunity to try and define Brady as too right-wing for Illinois, and, while it’s too much to hope that Brady can become as unpopular as Quinn, get him unpopular enough that Illinois’s Democratic lean can do the rest of the work. Quinn might also be heartened by the high performance for Rich Whitney (who, it should be noted, also polled in double digits against Rod Blagojevich in 2006 — but that wasn’t a close race, and anti-Blago Dems were free to cast protest votes). In a close race, strategic-minded left-leaning voters might sigh and decide to vote for Quinn, nose held, than waste a protest vote on Whitney, given the conservative alternative in Brady.