Tag: TN-Sen

So with less than half a year to go, it’s time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent.  So I’ll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching.  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

Follow me below the fold for all the races.  This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there.  Also see my previous March diary to see what things have changed since my last update.

First off, whenever I refer to fundraising numbers in the races, I’m using the latest numbers we know of, from the end of March 2008.  “Q1” refers to the period of January to March 2008, the most recent quarter that we have the fundraising numbers for.  Major hat tip to Senate Guru for putting all the numbers in an easy to read table format.

Tier I

1. Virginia: Incredibly popular former Governor Mark Warner (D) is running for this seat that opened up when John Warner (R), no relation, announced his retirement.  Warner left the governorship with a whopping 80% approval rating.  That’s freaking unheard of.  He’ll face another former Governor, Jim Gilmore (R), who some of you may remember tried running for President last year.  Gilmore was known as the governor who helped drive the state into near-bankruptcy with his car tax cut, and Warner as the one who fixed the problem when he took over for Gilmore.  Rasmussen Reports still shows Warner CRUSHING Gilmore, 55%-37%.  And oh yeah, Warner also raised over $2.5 million in Q1, while Gilmore only raised a little over $400,000.  To top it off, Gilmore’s been burning through the little cash he got, and now barely has $200,000 left, which is more than $4 million less than what Warner’s sitting on.  This seat’s about as safe as you’re gonna get.

2. New Mexico: Rep. Tom Udall (D) announced for this seat shortly after Pete Domenici (R) announced his retirement.  Yes, he is part of the famed Udall political family; his father Stewart served as Interior Secretary under JFK, and his uncle Mo was an Arizona Congressman for 30 years, also running for President in 1976.  Stewart Udall was largely responsible for just about all the environmental laws that were passed in the 1960s.  The GOP side features a primary fight between Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce that’s been getting nastier lately.  So the entire New Mexico U.S. House delegation is running for this Senate seat!  Lots of good recent polling news for Udall pushes this race into the number 2 spot, as Rasmussen shows Udall crushing both opponents by at least 15 points each, and SurveyUSA shows him getting at least 60% in the polls and destroying both challengers by at least 24 points each!  Now, once the GOP settles on a nominee, expect a “unity bounce” to occur, which should trim Udall’s massive leads a bit.  But if the polls still show the GOP candidate under 40% even then, it won’t be much of a race.  Combine that with Udall having three times the cash on hand as Pearce and Wilson combined, and Udall would be number 1 on the list if it weren’t for Mark Warner.

3. New Hampshire: John Sununu (R) is about to become 2008’s version of Rick Santorum.  Democrats could run a ham sandwich against him, and it would be a competitive race.  But why settle for a ham sandwich when you can run the former governor?  Jeanne Shaheen (D), who Sununu beat in 2002 thanks to some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, has led Sununu in every single poll taken in 2008.  The latest Rasmussen poll has her leading 50%-43%.  A general rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble.  Add to that, the fact New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, kicking out both Republican Congressmen and flipping over 80 seats in the state House, giving Democrats control of both state legislature for the first time since 1910, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent.  The only thing keeping this race from being tied at number 2 is that while Shaheen outraised Sununu in the 1st quarter, Sununu still has a significant cash on hand advantage of $4.3 million, compared to Shaheen’s $1.8 million.  That money will probably make this race closer, but given how much New Hampshire has changed, I’m not sure that money advantage is really going to help Sununu all that much.

4. Colorado: Wayne Allard (R) kept his pledge of only serving two terms, and is retiring from the Senate.  Democrats have cleared the path for Rep. Mark Udall here.  He’s Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin.  On the GOP side, former Rep. Bob Schaffer is the likely nominee.  Colorado has been trending bluer recently, picking up a Senate seat in 2004 (Ken Salazar), and a congressional district and the governor’s office in 2006.  Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors.  At the end of Q1, Udall was sitting on a $4.2 million warchest, with Schaffer trailing by half that amount.  Schaffer campaign manager Dick Wadhams (no, really, that’s his name) got Allard first elected to the Senate, and became a rising start in the GOP for managing John Thune’s 2004 win over Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota.  But, he was also in charge of managing George Allen’s 2006 re-election bid in Virginia, sending him from a 20-point lead seven months out to defeat.  (Allen revealing his inner racist greatly helped, too.)  And now it seems that Wadhams has been flipping out at local reporters.  Then, the latest Schaffer ad was supposed to show Pike’s Peak, a mountain in Colorado.  However, the footage in the commercial was actually of Mt. McKinley in Alaska.  D’oh!  Combine that with Schaffer now being inexorably tied to Jack Abramoff and human rights abuses on the Marianas Islands, and can you say “imploding campaign”?  Recent Rasmussen polling shows Udall opening up a 47%-41% lead over Schaffer now, with Schaffer’s numbers dropping by a point for each of the last four months.  Udall’s favorability ratings are also on the rise, while Schaffer’s are going in the opposite direction.

5. North Carolina: Kay Hagan easily won her primary two weeks ago, and suddenly the polls have been showing a massive shift in favor of Hagan.  Last month she was trailing Elizabeth Dole (R) by double digits.  Well, no more.  After winning the primary, check out the bounce!  SurveyUSA has Dole only up 50%-46% (while underestimating black turnout), and Rasmussen has Hagan leading Dole 48%-47%!  What’s more, Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm specializing in North Carolina polling, shows (.pdf) Dole up 48%-43%, and Civitas Institute (a Republican polling firm) shows Dole only up 45%-43%.  These recent polls all show the race to be neck-and-neck now.  As a result, Dole has fired her campaign manager and brought gubernatorial candidate Bill Graham’s campaign manager, who managed Graham to a 3rd place finish, netting just 9.28% of the vote.  Now there’s a real winner.  In another sign of how much trouble Dole is in, her campaign is asking the DSCC and NRSC not to spend money on her race.  Um, isn’t that’s the whole POINT of those campaign committees?  She should know, she headed up the NRSC in 2006 when they lost control of the Senate!  She had no problem spending NRSC money in all those key Senate races two years ago.  She’s only doing this because the DSCC has more than twice the cash on hand as the NRSC does right now.  Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised at the campaign Hagan is running; after all, she is the niece of the late Lawton Chiles, the longtime Senator and Governor of Florida, who came from behind to win re-election to the governorship in 1994 by defeating Jeb Bush.

6. Alaska: 85-year-old Ted Stevens (R) is seeking a sixth term, but he is in some legal trouble, with the FBI having raided his home last June in connection with possible bribes from Veco Corp., where several executives have already pled guilty to bribing his son Ben, who was the former state senate president.  Former Veco CEO Bill Allen admitted some bribe money also went towards Ted Stevens.  And Democrats got their top choice when Anchorage mayor Mark Begich entered the race.  His father Nick Begich was a former Congressman, who was killed in a plane crash along with House Majority Leader Hale Boggs (D-LA) in 1972.  Earlier this month, two polls shocked the establishment, when they both showed Begich leading Stevens.  Rasmussen shows Begich leading 47%-45%, and Research 2000 shows Begich leading 48%-43%.  Stevens still has a substantially bigger warchest, but after 35 years in the Senate, Stevens is pretty much a known quantity to Alaskans.  Look for really negative ads attacking Begich coming soon.

7. Oregon: Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) won a close primary over lawyer/activist Steve Novick to take on Gordon Smith (R).  The two quickly joined forces in a unity event to take on Smith.  Smith seemed worried about Merkley, as he spent around $500,000 in attack ads against Merkley before he even won the primary!  Now, Smith still sits on a considerable warchest (over $5 million at the end of Q1), but the latest Rasmussen polling, taken before Merkley won his primary, shows Merkley having gained serious ground since early this year, now only trailing Smith 45%-42%.  Interestingly enough, an internal DSCC poll also showed the exact same numbers.  It will be interesting to see how much of a “unity bounce” Merkley will get in future polling.  In an interesting twist, Smith is actually a cousin of the two Udalls running for Senate.

8. Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election.  With Mike Ciresi having dropped out, the Democratic nominee looks to be comedian Al Franken.  The polls had been steadily favoring Franken, until late April when a story came out that Franken owed $70,000 in back taxes to 17 different states.  Now, it turns out that as a traveling comedian, having visited lots of states, he was supposed to pay taxes to those individual states, but paid them instead all to the states he had homes in.  As for the fallout, there are very conflicting stories.  SurveyUSA had a poll showing 51% of Minnesotans saying Franken should actually withdraw from the race because of this error.  But the Star Tribune showed the tax story didn’t make much of a difference to 64% of Minnesotans (compared to only 31% in the SurveyUSA poll).  At least one of those polls is WAY off.  The election polls now show Franken trailing by 7 points to Coleman.  Over five months out from the election, it’s still way too early to count Franken out simply over this flap, especially given how strongly he was polling against Coleman earlier this year.  Plus, Franken did manage to continue his streak of outraising Coleman in Q1. Update: And just like I said, Rasmussen comes out with a new poll today showing Coleman’s lead has shrunk back to just 2 points, 47%-45%.  This race is most definitely winnable.

9. Texas: Democrats got the challenger they wanted to face John Cornyn (R).  State rep. and Texas National Guard Lt. Col. Rick Noriega (D) served in Afghanistan after 9/11, and was chosen to coordinate relief efforts in Houston after Hurricane Katrina.  An early baseline poll from last September showed Cornyn beating Noriega 51%-35%.  How things have changed.  Early this month, polls from Rasmussen and Research 2000 came out showing Cornyn’s lead had shrunk to just four points!  He’s now under the 50% mark in both of them.  However, the fundraising numbers are troubling, with Cornyn having outraised Noriega by more than a 4-to-1 margin in Q1, resulting in Cornyn sitting on over $8 million more than Noriega had by the end of March.  And in a huge state like Texas, money will most definitely matter.  This past week, Cornyn gave Noriega some prime ammo to use against him when he was one of only 22 Senators to vote against Sen. Jim Webb’s (D-VA) G.I. Bill.  Noriega quickly went up with an op-ed slamming Cornyn for abandoning our troops.  Well played, sir.

10. Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) is the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008.  But how endangered that really is remains to be seen.  She was still able to win in 2002, a decidedly strong year for the GOP.  Karl Rove was able to woo state treasurer John Neely Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy family in Massachusetts) to switch parties to run for re-election to State Treasurer as a Republican last August, and after winning, he announced he would challenge Landrieu for her Senate seat.  (Party switching actually seems rather common in Louisiana.)  As for how endangered Landrieu really is, well, there’s lots of conflicting data.  On the down side, hundreds of thousands of residents from New Orleans and the surrounding areas never came back to the state after Hurricane Katrina, making the staet more red than it used to be.  Bobby Jindal (R) didn’t even need a runoff to win the governor’s race last year, getting over 50% of the vote on the first ballot and performing stronger than expected.  On the plus side, however, Mary’s brother Mitch won the Lt. Governorship by an even bigger margin.  And this month’s win by Don Cazayoux (D) in LA-06, a Republican district, has to bode well for Landrieu.  Kennedy did outraise Landrieu in Q1, but still trailed her by almost $3 million at the end of March.  And Kennedy will have to burn some of that money against primary challenger Paul Hollis.  There’s been virtually no polling on this race for some reason, so the most recent one is from April, which shows Landrieu leading Kennedy 50%-38%.  A boost came to the Landrieu campaign when the Huffington Post obtained an NRSC memo from 2004 that attacked Kennedy when he ran for the Senate that year… as a Democrat.  After ripping him for being so wrong for Louisiana, they’re suddenly going to say he’s the right person for the job?  LOL.  Still, some more polling on this race would be nice to see (cough Markos cough).

11. Maine: Rep. Tom Allen (D) is running to challenge Susan Collins (R).  But even though Maine is a blue state, he has an uphill climb.  Collins has worked hard to craft her moderate credentials.  The most recent Rasmussen poll has some good news for Allen, with him only trailing Collins 52%-42%.  It’s good news, considering every earlier poll had Allen under 40%.  Allen has been hitting the right notes recently, hitting Collins hard over her shameful tenure as chair of the Senate Homeland Security Committee from 2003-2007, and doing NOTHING about contractor abuses and war profiteering in Iraq, despite multiple letters from people informing her of serious abuses going on in Iraq.  And BTW, the Maine newspapers suck at telling the truth about Collins.  I mean, really suck.

12. Kentucky: Even though Mitch McConnell (R) became the Senate Minority Leader, he is a top target of the Democrats.  And with former Governor Ernie Fletcher (R) losing his re-election bid to Steve Beshear (D) 59%-41% last November, that made Kentucky Democrats even more confident.  But then Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo and State Auditor Crit Luallen both declined to run, and netroots favorite Lt. Col. Andrew Horne, a Marine who has served in both the Persian Gulf War and the Iraq War, dropped his bid.  Rasmussen had shown both Stumbo and Luallen holding McConnell under the 50% mark, and for the Senate Minority Leader who can bring home the pork, that showed significant dissatisfaction with McConnell in Kentucky.  Netroots un-favorite and wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford easily won the Democratic primary last week.  He’s ticked off a lot of Democrats in the past by endorsing Fletcher over Ben Chandler (D) for Governor back in 2003 after he lost the primary to Chandler.  The blogs are, ah, less than pleased.  At least it looks like Kentucky Democrats have quickly unified behind Lunsford and are all pledging to do their part to defeat McConnell.  McConnell has a HUGE warchest of almost $8 million, but Lunsford can afford to self-fund.  And this quote from Lunsford after winning the primary is nice to read.  “[McConnell is] going to spend millions of dollars trying to destroy my reputation.  But I don’t care how many names he’s going to call me, because in January he’s going to call me ‘Senator.'”  Well played, sir.  Update: Rasmussen has just released a shocking poll showing Lunsford is leading McConnell 49%-44%!  This, plus Lunsford’s ability to self-fund, moves Kentucky into a Tier I race.

13. Mississippi-B: Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year’s Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, won’t have all the incumbency power Lott had accumulated over the years.  Wicker was the Congressman from MS-01, so he’s won elected office previously.  But that seat then went blue when Travis Childers (D) won it two weeks ago.  So things are changing even in Mississippi.  That has to be a shot in a arm for former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D).  However, Wicker has shown himself to be a prolific fundraiser, bringing in over $2.5 million in Q1 alone, amassing a warchest at the end of Q1 of over $2 million more than the one Musgrove had.  Granted, Musgrove didn’t have the full three months to fundraise, but until we see the Q2 numbers sometime in July, those numbers don’t look so good.  But what does look good are the latest polls.  An internal DSCC poll showed a shocking result: Musgrove was up by 8 over Wicker, 48%-40%!  Marc Ambinder explains why the poll can’t be that far off.  Then Research 2000 released a poll showing Wicker down by four, 46%-42%.  But here’s the catch; Markos had them cite the partisan identification.  But because this is technically a special election (to fill out the remainder of Lott’s term), there will be no party identification on the ballot in November, which is consistent with how the DSCC’s internal poll asked the question.  That can actually work to our benefit in a state like Mississippi.  As a result, Wicker has already gone up with a TV ad introducing himself to voters.

Tier II

I decided, for the sake of my own sanity, not to try to rank the Tier II and III races.  These are given in alphabetical order, by state.

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R), known for covering up issues related to intelligence and domestic spying for Bush, looked to be coasting to an easy re-election until former Congressman Jim Slattery entered the race in mid-March.  Given that late start, he still managed to raise over $250,000 in just the first two weeks.  Slattery’s got a nice 2-minute bio spot on YouTube.  Rasmussen gave even more encouraging news this month, showing Roberts with only a 52%-40% lead, when we all thought Slattery would be down by more than that.  There are signs that Roberts is nervous, as his people lashed out, attacking Slattery for criticizing the Iraq War, considering he voted for going to war with Iraq.  Except… the war he voted for was the FIRST Gulf War in 1991.  So… voting for that war makes you unable to criticize this war?  Um, OK, that’s some great Republican logic for you.  At the very least, Slattery makes this race somewhat competitive.

Nebraska: With Chuck Hagel (R) retiring, former governor Mike Johanns (R) quit his job as Bush’s Agriculture Secretary to run for this seat.  The netroots were thrilled when rancher and history professor Scott Kleeb (D) threw his hat in the ring.  While Kleeb lost the NE-03 House race in 2006, that district is the most Republican in Nebraska, and Kleeb got a higher-than-expected 45% of the vote.  That’s had a lot of people thinking he would actually win in the other two districts, and thus a statewide race.  Of course, that doesn’t take into account how he’d be running against the former governor of the state.  Kleeb easily won his primary against Republican-turned-Democrat Tony Raimondo, but the polls show Kleeb still has quite a ways to go.  Whereas Rasmussen has Kleeb down 55%-40% (which is actually a good starting point for Kleeb), DailyKos’s Research 2000 poll has Kleeb down by a wide 58%-31% margin.  Kleeb will also need to improve his fundraising significantly, as he trailed by over $1 million in cash on hand to Johanns to end Q1.

Tier III

Alabama: The Democrats’ top hope in Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks announced he was not running, leaving little-known state senator Vivian Figures (D) the only challenger to incumbent Jeff Sessions (R).  But it’s unclear if she’s running a real campaign, with her last event having been on March 27.  But, Jeff Sessions does play a role in the Don Siegelman case.  And it seems Sessions was desperate enough to try and kill the 60 Minutes piece about Siegelman before it aired.  So if there’s a chance Sessions will get ensnared in this scandal, his seat may not be so safe.  But for now, it’s Tier III, and in danger of falling into the “safe” category.

Georgia: A crowded field of relatively unknown Democratic challengers to Saxby Chambliss (R) didn’t seem to go anywhere, until former state representative Jim Martin entered the race on March 19th.  Martin was the 2006 Democratic Lt. Gov. nominee, so he’s run a statewide race before.  And in just 12 days, Martin raised $346,675, which dropped a lot of jaws.  Martin would first have to get by DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, who is black and is depending on African-American turnout to win the crowded primary field.  Except… Jones voted for Bush… twice, still doesn’t know what to think about Iraq, and likes calling us Democrats “losers”.  Way to, um, not endear yourself to us.  It would be great if Chambliss loses; remember, he ousted triple amputee Max Cleland (D) in 2002 by running a despicable ad blending the images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein into Cleland’s face.  If Martin bests Jones in the primary, I’ll move this up to Tier II.

Idaho: With Larry Craig (R) retiring after his airport bathroom… ah… incident, it’s looking like a rematch between Lt. Governor Jim Risch (R) and former Congressman Larry LaRocco (D), who lost the 2006 Lt. Gov. race to Risch by a sizable 58%-39% margin.  While LaRocco finished 2007 with more cash on hand than Risch, he was absolutely blitzkrieged in Q1, with Risch raising over 4 ½ times as much money as LaRocco raised, and now LaRocco trails by almost $700,000 in cash on hand.

New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D) said he’s running again, but his age is always a concern, as he is already 84 years old right now.  His poll numbers also don’t look that good, but no New Jersey politician’s numbers ever look really good.  As a result, Rep. Rob Andrews has decided to try a primary challenge, even though everyone else is backing Lautenberg.  But Andrews has this problem of saying that invading Iraq wasn’t a mistake, and was one of the biggest Democratic cheerleaders of going to war in the first place.  And when Lautenberg blasts chickenhawks as forcefully as he did, why switch to Andrews?  On the GOP side, it’s been a wild roller coaster ride as multiple candidates have been declaring, and then dropping out of the race.  Blue Jersey has a wild recap of it all.

Oklahoma: James Inhofe (R) looks pretty safe, though interestingly enough, Inhofe has never gotten to 50% approval in the history of SurveyUSA’s polling.  State senator and netroots favorite Andrew Rice (D), who lost his brother in the 9/11 attacks, has declared for this race.  Rice and Inhofe could not be farther apart when it comes to energy and environmental issues.  Rice pulled in decent fundraising numbers in Q1, but still trails Inhofe by a wide margin.  For some reason, nobody has done a poll of this race yet.

South Carolina: This race is only in Tier III because Lindsey Graham (R) may actually be primaried out of his own party, for his support of Bush’s immigration plan.  The natives are restless.  A party switch is near impossible, but a different senator serving in this seat come 2009 is a distinct possibility.  Attorney and Navy veteran Michael Cone is running on the Democratic side.  But put it this way, his website doesn’t even have a picture of him, and his endorsements page is, ah, copied from an instructions page on how to build a website.

South Dakota: Tim Johnson (D) is fully back at work after suffering a brain hemorrhage in December 2006.  His illness had made Republicans hesitant to challenge or attack him.  And the polling shows Johnson may be the most popular Senator in the country, to boot.

Tennessee: Former Tennessee Democratic Party chair Bob Tuke entered the race in late February.  It remains to be seen if Tuke can make this a real race against Lamar Alexander (R), who was also a two-term governor of Tennessee and the Secretary of Education under George H.W. Bush.

Democratic safe seats

Arkansas (Mark Pryor)

Delaware (Joe Biden)

Illinois (Dick Durbin)

Iowa (Tom Harkin)

Massachusetts (John Kerry)

Michigan (Carl Levin)

Montana (Max Baucus; his GOP opponent Michael Lange had less than $2,000 on hand at the end of Q1.  I’m not kidding.)

Rhode Island (Jack Reed)

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats

Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

Wyoming (Michael Enzi)

Wyoming (John Barrasso)

So there you have it, my personal rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand after Memorial Day.  Things can still change, and we won’t know exactly what the national mood will be 5 months from now.  Still, given that, these are my picks, and I’m sticking with them… until my next update, at least.

Feel free to rip me apart in the comments, telling me I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about, how could I possibly put a certain race in Tier II or III when it’s so obviously a top tier race, why I’m being too optimistic in some seat, etc.  Have at it, folks.  🙂

I address this screed to Congressman Kendrick Meek and Congresswoman Deborah Wasserman Schultz.  I know that both of you have been under much scrutiny here in the blogosphere, based upon your recent recusals from campaigning against your neighboring Republican congresspersons.  I suspect that you probably have your eyes on a senate race at some point in the future. In preparation for that, you probably think that you're positioning yourselves to be perceived as moderates who can work well across the aisle. However, I'm here to show you that if you consider such positioning to be part of a winning strategy, you are terribly mistaken.

One need not look further than the results of 2006 to learn that authenticity works.  During that crucial election season, the Democratic party was faced with the outrageously tall order of winning at least six senate seats.  As is the usual tendency of the deck, it was once again stacked against us.  Our GOP opponents appeared to have financial advantages.  At the outset of the year, we didn't even have six, let alone seven, viable seats, and severe party infighting threatened at least one critical race (Ohio).  From that mess, the DSCC scrounged up seven viable challengers in Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri, and Montana.  Of these seven, six won.  I will not focus on the Rhode Island race, since it was an unusual scenario in a state whose dynamics do not mirror those of swing states or of the nation at large.  I'll also leave out Pennsylvania, since that was an instance of an incumbent who was so off his rocker, a piece of cardboard could've defeated him.  And the Virginia race has been written about ad nauseum, so I'll skip that one as well.  I will instead focus on Ohio, Missouri, Montana, and Tennessee; three wins and a loss, and why it turned out that way.

When Sherrod Brown prevailed over Paul Hackett in the primary for the Ohio senate, many Democrats became nervous; Hackett, an Iraq War veteran, seemed like a more viable option to run against incumbent Republican Mike DeWine than the unabashedly liberal Cleveland congressman whose record on the hot-button social issues was completely progressive.  In the fabled state that won the election for Bush in 2004, it seemed like a bad idea to run a candidate whose record was to the left of John Kerry's.  Well, as it turned out, Sherrod Brown proved to be an excellent candidate. Instead of fudging his answers and trying to make himself look like something he wasn't, he proudly stood up for his principles, emphasizing his economically progressive ideals, but without attempting to conceal his stances on the social issues.  His unapologetic championing of the disadvantaged called to mind another progressive who never backed down from his core beliefs: the late, great Paul Wellstone.  

Over in Missouri, then-State Auditor Claire McCaskill waged a tough fight against Jim Talent, the incumbent GOP senator.  The stem cell initiative was on the ballot in that state, a potential risk in a state with such a high number of evangelicals.  It was, therefore, a pleasant surprise when McCaskill put Talent on the defensive on that issue, and on the issue of abortion, in nearly every debate.  In a key appearance on Meet The Press, Talent lobbed Republican talking points at McCaskill, and, rather than attempting to fit her responses into those frames, she effectively twisted them around to leave Talent as the weaker candidate, hemming and hawing and making excuses for his every statement.  McCaskill's margin of victory was small, but in a very conservative state like Missouri, it was enough!

Out on the ranges, where libertarianism runs strong, the Montana senate race saw a battle between two very colorful characters: the doddering embarrassment Republican Conrad Burns, who was often looked upon as something of a senile uncle even by his fellow GOPers, and the plain-spoken, buzz-cut-sporting Jon Tester, who won the senate primary over a less progressive state official.  Burns trotted out the old canard of fearmongering, trying to to use Tester's opposition to the PATRIOT Act as a political bludgeon.  Had Tester been a weaker candidate, he would have attempted a nuanced explanantion, trying to convince people that he could be patriot without supporting the PATRIOT Act, accepting the right wing's frames instead of creating his own.  Luckily, Tester unleashed the no-nonsense directness that is a trademark of the Mountain West; in one key debate, in which Burns accused Tester of wanting to “weaken” the PATRIOT Act (clearly a standard GOP frame, portraying the Democrats as weak on terror and weak in general,) Tester famously responded, “I don't want to weaken the PATRIOT Act, I want to repeal it.”  Had John Kerry been anywhere near this bold in 2004, Bush would not have had a second term.

After looking at the victories of Brown, McCaskill, and Tester, I now turn to the only high-profile loser on our side, Harold Ford Jr. of Tennessee.  Yes, I am well aware of the racist tactics that the Republicans used against Ford in the infamous “Call Me” ad (a frame-by-frame analysis is available here,) but I remain convinced that a stronger candidate, one with more backbone and more confidence in his own platform, would have been able to fight back and prevail. Ford embodied the ideals of a DINO at best.  He appeared in a clumsy ad in a church, going too far into the territory of unsubtlety in an attempt to prove his religiosity.  (I had serious flashbacks to John Kerry's 2004 proclamation of himself to be the “candidate of conservative values.”  The minute we accept the GOP frames, we're dead in the water). On the campaign trail in '06, Ford frequently trumpeted his opposition to gay marriage.  He spoke in tones that ranged from cautious to mildly complimentary toward Bush's Iraq policies, all the while distancing himself from the Democratic leadership in the senate.  In short, he ran as a Republican.  And why would anyone vote for a Republican who doesn't have the conviction to actually run within the party that actually represents the conservative values he preaches, when they could vote for an actual Republican whose voting patterns are more sure-footed? 

You see where I'm going with this.  2006 was a Democratic tidal wave, yet Harold Ford lost because of his own spinelessness and willingness to act like a Republican.  The moral of the story here is to stick to your guns, champion your own progressive record, and be who you are.  It's obvious that if you have achieved anything in Congress, you have been able to work with the other side.  Playing “footsie” with Republicans does nothing to further your goals; in fact, it undermines them, since progressive voters might doubt your convictions.  I certainly hope that your aides and advisors read this post, as it is crucial that you absorb its message.  (For all the readers of this blog, I suggest writing to these Florida congresspersons and calling their offices to relay a similar message).  Please, be a Sherrod Brown or a Jon Tester.  Don't be a Harold Ford.  Your political futures will be brighter for it, if recent history is any indicator!

Looks like Tennessee Dems have caught a bad break: Their likely Senate candidate, businessman Mike McWherter, the son of former Gov. Ned McWherter, is expected to drop his Senate bid.

Two potential candidates for the seat, former state Democratic Party Chair Bob Tuke and Nashville insurance lawyer Kevin Doherty, both say that they received calls from McWherter to inform them of his decision to cut the cord on the race.

Tuke says that he’ll make a decision soon:

Tuke said earlier this year that he planned to seek the Democratic nomination to run against Alexander, but then stepped aside after McWherter indicated an interest.

“I’m going to go through a very methodical, intentional analysis of it – talking to people and looking at the polling Mike had done. Then we’ll see – hopefully in just a few days. Time’s a wasting,” said Tuke.

Tuke says he’ll also talk with Nashville attorney Kevin Doherty, who had also indicated an interest in making the race until McWherter stepped up.

This seat was always a long shot for Dems to pick up (absent a Lamar! retirement), but McWherter was expected to partially self-fund his race, with the potential to make Alexander sweat a little.  The news isn’t good by any means, but at least we have a couple of potential candidates who are giving the race a look.

From Today's Hotline: 

Conducted 10/8-11 by Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R); surveyed 600 RVs; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 10/17). Party ID Breakdown: 30%D, 34%R, 36%I. Tested: Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) and ex-Gov. McWherter son/businessman Mike McWherter (D).

General Election Matchup                   Alexander As Sen.
                     All    Dem GOP Ind                       All    Dem GOP Ind
L. Alexander    60% 22% 91% 63%     Approve     68% 46% 87% 69%
M. McWherter   29   65     4     22       Disapprove  19  35   6  19
Undec             11   na     na    na

Fav/Unfav
L. Alexander    60%/19%
M. McWherter     9 / 9

 

 

Buried in Newsweek’s very recent interview with Idaho Governor Otter is this statement:

We’ve now got five Republicans [retiring or resigning], and I guess there’s a few more that may make a statement, from what [Senate Minority Leader] Mitch McConnell’s told me.

Full analysis at Campaign Diaries.

Otter plainly hints here at the possibility of more Republican seats opening up! But which could those be? At this point, few Senate watchers are expecting any, as most people on the retirement watch list have announced their intentions: John Warner and Chuck Hagel retired, and so did Pete Domenici who had been on this watch list since the beginning of the cycle. The reason his retirement caused such a surprise is that Domenici had started to raise money, leading to the assumption that he would run again.

The last senator who was facing persistent retirement rumors earlier in the year was Mississippi’s Cochran, but the conventional wisdom soon became that Cochran would run again (mostly because Cochran’s heir apparent, Rep. Pickering, announced he would leave Congress next year, which he presumably would not have done if Cochran had hinted at the possibility of the Senate seat opening up).

So who are those “few more” Republican who could still pull the plug on a re-election run? The first person that comes to mind, obviously, is Alaska’s Ted Stevens. Stevens is in the middle of an FBI investigation for alleged corruption, and the scandal has been picking up in recent weeks. Who knows what the investigation’s state will be a year from now. Stevens might even be indicted by then, which has got to worry Republicans who might be pressuring Stevens to step down.

This is the only obvious answer. Otter clearly used plural form, so who else remains? Could we have misjudged Cochran’s intentions? An open seat in Mississippi would be a huge opportunity for Democrats who have a strong candidate (Attorney General Moore). Two other faint possibilities are North Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole and Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander. Both senators faced some rumors they might call it quits early this year, but speculation quieted down as all signs were pointing towards both of them preparing a new run.

Check out these recently updated Senate Rankings for a take on where those races rank for now, and how much open seats there could dramatically expand the playing field.

September was a great month for Senate Democrats. Is started with news that John Warner was retiring, featured the endless saga of Larry Craig’s guilty plea to lewd behavior, saw another crucial GOP seat open up in Nebraska and was marked with recruitment coups with the candidacies of Mark Warner in VA and Jeanne Shaheen in NH. In fact, the only bad news Democrats are fearing now is that Bob Kerrey might end up taking a pass in Nebraska — but even there, the fat lady hasn’t yet sung.

All of this is really icing on the cake for Democrats, who already felt great before Labor Day. Not only is the GOP is defending 22 seats, and the Dems only 12, but the NRSC has been doing poorly in fundraising and recruitment, failing to move to target states beyond… the one state of Louisiana. Democrats, on the other hand, are expanding the map left and right: While they are huge underdogs in TN, KY, NM, TX, and ID, odds are they will at least put one of those in play (just like VA in 2006 and KY in 2004 became competitive only in the last stretch). And the most problematic second-tier seat is turning to be Alaska, where incumbent Ted Stevens is facing significant bribery allegations.

The coming weeks are likely to bring more news that will determine how some of these races shape up. Bob Kerrey’s decision is obviously what everyone is waiting for, but there are other important questions: Will Craig retire as he had promised? Will there be more open seats, with all eyes turned towards SD’s Tim Johnson, AK’s Stevens, and NM’s Pete Domenici? Will Democrats find candidates to run against Dole in NC, Domenici in NM, Stevens in AK, McConnell in KY? All of these races could end up on the map, but Democrats have to succeed in their recruitment efforts first.

The first 4 states are listed after the jump. For the full rankings, go here, to CampaignDiaries.com.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up 4-7 seats.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 5 seats, for a 56-44 majority.

Likely Takeover (1 Republican seat, 0 Democratic seats)

1. Virginia (Open seat; Previous Ranking: 3)

Virginia inaugurates the “Likely Takeover” category.  When John Warner announced he was retiring at the end of August, Virginia immediately became a top pick-up opportunity for Democrats. And events in September certainly didn’t help dispel the notion that this is their race to lose: Very popular former Governor Mark Warner entered the race on their behalf, while the GOP is showing every indication that it is heading towards a divisive primary between moderate Rep. Tom Davis and conservative former Governor Jim Gilmore. To make matters much worse for Republicans, a few polls taken this month show Warner with massive leads of about 25% or more against both Davis and Gilmore.

Republicans argue that Warner has never been fully tested, and that they can lower his ratings by finally going on the offensive against him. While this may be true, Democrats can rest in peace (for now) for two simple reasons: (1) Warner has a lot of room to give before being truly threatened given the massive nature of his lead, and (2) Warner will have plenty of time to re-introduce himself to voters and strengthen their good impression of him.

That said, Tom Davis could make the race more competitive. He represents Northern Virginia, the region that has been trended dramatically blue over the past few years. Any Democrat who wants to win in VA has to carry Fairfax and the neighboring counties overwhelmingly, and Davis could cut in Warner’s margins there. He first needs to win the GOP nomination then. If Republicans nominate their candidate through a primary, Davis has a good chance of winning. But if they opt to nominate him through a party convention, conservative activists could opt for the weaker Gilmore.

Lean Takeover (2 Republican Seats, 0 Democratic Seats)

2. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Previous ranking: 1)

A lot has changed in this race in the past month. At the beginning of September, the Democratic field was composed of three candidates who were hoping to take on Senator Sununu. A few weeks later, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen announced she would enter the race, setting up a rematch of the 2002 election. Two of the three Democrats already in the race (Marchand and Swett) withdrew, leaving Dartmouth Professor Jay Buckley as Shaheen’s sole primary opposition. Many grassroots activists are questioning the party’s rush to rally around Shaheen, a moderate politician who supported the war in 2003 and was not known for being particularly progressive during her terms as governor. But Shaheen is likely to coast to the nomination.

Polls throughout the summer showed Shaheen had Shaheen with gigantic leads averaging 20 points. That put Sununu in an even worse position than Santorum was in in 2006. How can an incumbent who is trailing by 20 points a year before the election possibly come back to win another term? But two polls taken shortly after Shaheen jumped in the race made Democrats a bit more confident. Shaheen only led by 5%. That is enough to make her the favorite (an incumbent in the low 40s rarely survives), but certainly not enough to count Sununu out.

Republicans argue that they beat Shaheen before, and they will use the same tactics against her in 2008. They see her record on taxes as particularly prone to attack. But Sununu barely edged Shaheen in 2002, at the height of Bush’s popularity. The GOP took a drubbing in New Hampshire in 2006, and the Republican brand looks even worse today — what fundamentals can Sununu rely on to come-back?

3. Colorado (Open; Previous ranking: 2)

This race has not made much news lately, probably because the basic story-line was settled months ago: Senator Allard retired, and both parties rallied around a candidate. Rep. Udall for Democrats, and former Rep. Shaffer for the GOP. Colorado has been voting for Democrats in open seat races in the past few years (the Salazar brothers in 2004, Governor Ritter in 2006), and have to be considered slightly favored here again. A recent poll commissioned by the Shaffer campaign gave Udall a 5-point lead. That certainly shows the state could still end up going for Republicans, but the poll was a partisan one, so it should be taken with a big grain of salt. This race will certainly shift around on the basis of future polls and campaign developments, but for now it is remarkably static.

Toss-up (4 R, 1 D)

4. Nebraska (Open; Last Ranking: 8)

Chuck Hagel announced his retirement last week, setting up what many people view as the marquee race of the 2008 cycle: former Republican Governor Mike Johanns versus former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey. Both men were rumored to be very interested in the race, but for now only Johanns has announced his candidacy. Recent reports indicate that Kerrey might be leaning against a run after all!

This race’s outlook will change dramatically in the coming days, as Kerrey is likely to announce his intentions very soon. If he does run, the race might edge into “lean takeover” territory — given Kerrey’s popularity in the state. If he ends up staying out of it, this race would drop down significantly, Johanns would be the favorite even if Omaha’s Democratic Mayor Fahey agrees to jump in. Fahey would keep the race competitive, but he would find it difficult to overcome the state’s overwhelming Republican lean, especially in a presidential year.

The second hope Democrats harbor is that Johanns will be stuck in a divisive primary. The state’s Attorney General Bruning had been planning to run against Chuck Hagel in the primary, and he is showing no intention of backing down now that Johanns is in the race. Former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub entered the race for a few days, ran ads, and then decided to withdraw, setting up a two-way primary. This could prove an opening for the Democratic candidate (either Kerrey or Fahey) who would have time to introduce himself to voters and define the terms of the campaign.

Full Rankings are available here, with full detailed rankings of all 34 races!

(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

In the left-hand column of the Guru’s website, there is a list of “Democratic Senatorial Incumbents and Candidates” featuring Democratic incumbents, announced Democratic challengers for GOP-held seats, and Democrats considering bids for GOP-held seats.  Though there is still much time left to recruit challengers, there are seven states on the list featuring only “unknown” – in other words, there are seven states with Republican incumbent Senators where there are no Democrats even publicly considering a Senate bid, only rumors at best.  Let’s look at those seven states.

(Much more after the jump.)

Alaska: Given Ted Stevens’ advanced age (he’s 83), his penchant for flying off in a tizzy from time to time, and his proximity to scandal, Democrats ought to field someone credible just in case.  Much speculation has focused on Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, who is term-limited out of office in 2009.  I think he should definitely run.  Best case scenario, he wins.  Worst case scenario, he loses but he increases his statewide profile for a 2010 challenge to Lisa Murkowski, who is significantly less popular than Stevens at a time when the Murkowski name isn’t worth what it used to be in Alaska.  (Her father, former Senator and now-former-Governor Frank Murkowski, had a dismal 19% showing in his 2006 primary bid for re-election after having taken heat for the nepotism associated with naming his daughter to his old Senate seat.)  If the DSCC offered him continued support in 2010 if he didn’t win 2008, he could go for it.  Otherwise, we ought to check with Alaska Democratic mainstay former Governor Tony Knowles or, perhaps more quixotically, former Senator and current Presidential candidate Mike Gravel to see if they wouldn’t mind having their name on the line just in case.  Race tracker wiki: AK-Sen

Georgia: The Peach State has arguably shifted more than any other state in the nation from Democratic- to Republican-trending over the last decade.  Right now, the only thing Democrats have resembling a candidate under the Democratic banner is self-proclaimed “conservative Democrat” and 2004 Bush voter Vernon Jones, the weak-fundraising CEO of DeKalb County.  Beyond that, some Democratic insiders have been urging Congressman Jim Marshall to consider a Senate bid, though Marshall may have a tough House re-election bid on his hands (could that motivate him to just jump into the Senate fray?).  Meanwhile state Attorney General Thurbert Baker has done nothing to quash speculation about Senate interest.  DKos diarists biglib (also now at Tondee’s Tavern), Mister Gloom, and VolvoDrivingLiberal offer thoughts on the GA-Dem bench – mostly just rumors, former candidates, or current office-holders that like where they are.  “Shameless” Saxby Chambliss is the Republican incumbent I would most like to see lose in 2008 as a result of his despicable 2002 campaign, so I hope the GA-Dems come up with something interesting.  I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: not a day goes by where I don’t hope that true American patriot and former Senator Max Cleland doesn’t reconsider a rematch of 2002.  (If you’ll forgive the triple-negative in the previous sentence, I just really want Cleland to get in the race and give Chambliss his comeuppance.)  Race tracker wiki: GA-Sen

Kansas: Pat Roberts’ approval hovers right around the 50% zone, but Kansas is still a red state.  The dream candidate remains popular Governor Kathleen Sebelius, who has expressed no interest in a 2008 Senate race and may be holding out for the 2008 Veepstakes.  With an approval in the 60-70% range and approval among Republicans over 50%, I’m confident she could beat Pat Roberts.  Kansas does enjoy other Democratic statewide elected officials, including Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson (a former KS-GOP Chair who switched parties to run with Sebelius) and state Attorney General Paul Morrison, as well as Democratic Congresspeople Dennis Moore and Nancy Boyda (half of Kansas’ four-person House delegation), but none have indicated interest in a Senate bid.  It would be disappointing to see a potentially competitive race in the heartland fall by the wayside; and, as long as Roberts hovers around 50% approval, Kansas is potentially competitive.  Race tracker wiki: KS-Sen

Mississippi: There is a question as to whether or not incumbent Thad Cochran will run for re-election.  Despite the unusual signals that might suggest retirement, if I had to make a prediction right now, I would offer that Cochran would run for another term, given Cochran’s steady fundraising compared with the meager showing of Cochran understudy Chip Pickering.  The dream candidate in Mississippi would be former state Attorney General Mike Moore, but it has been suggested that Moore would only put the effort into a run if Cochran retired – the catch-22 being that Cochran might only retire if he faced a stiff challenge from someone like Moore.  Like Kansas, half of Mississippi’s four-person House delegation is Democratic, but there have been no rumblings.  Even yearnings for celebrity candidates like author (and former state legislator) John Grisham or actor Morgan Freeman have made the rounds.  But, so far, silence.  Race tracker wiki: MS-Sen

South Carolina: With a very lean SC-Dem bench, Lindsey Graham could be more likely to face a primary challenge from a Club for Growth-style right-winger unhappy with Graham’s maverick nature than a viable Democrat.  Nevertheless, every state should have a challenger.  The race tracker wiki only offers speculation on the SC-Dems’ 2004 Senate challenger, former State Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum, and former state Party Chair Joe Erwin.  Tenenbaum’s successor as Superintendent, Jim Rex, remains South Carolina’s only statewide elected Democrat (and barely, at that, with Rex taking 47.50% percent of the vote to the Republican’s 47.45% of the vote, winning by less than 500 votes in a race where the Green Party candidate took about 9,000 votes, while the Libertarian, Independence, and Constitution Party candidates combined for over 45,000 votes or over 4% of the total vote).  The Palmetto State’s six-person House delegation features two Democrats, both of whom have plum committee assignments in the new Democratic House majority that they probably would not want to part with.  A second-look at the 2006 state election results offer that the top vote-getting Democrat was not Jim Rex but rather Robert Barber, who narrowly lost his bid for the Lieutenant Governor’s office and who has a very interesting background.  If I were the DSCC, I’d give Mr. Barber a ring and find out if there was any interest.  Race tracker wiki: SC-Sen

Tennessee: Tennessee actually enjoys a fairly solid, intriguing bench of potential Senate candidates.  Still, pretty much nothing but silence.  Meanwhile, Lamar Alexander’s approval looms unintimidatingly in the low-50’s.  2006 Democratic TN-Sen nominee former Congressman Harold Ford Jr. has taken the reins of the DLC and seems to have backed off of speculation about a repeat bid in ’08.  Extremely popular Governor Phil Bredesen has not shown any interest in a Senate bid that he could very reasonably win.  Perhaps he, like Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, is waiting on the 2008 Veepstakes.  (Come to think of it, the “popular Democratic Governor uninterested in a very winnable Senate challenge against a lackluster Republican incumbent in favor of the ’08 Veepstakes” motif fits a few states, including Tennessee, Kansas, and North Carolina, and even Wyoming minus the Veepstakes angle.)  Ford’s 2006 primary opponent, state senator Rosalind Kurita, lost a lot of goodwill when she voted for the Republican Speaker of the Senate/Lt. Gov. over the Democratic incumbent.  Speculation has also surrounded Nashville Mayor Bill Purcell, former state Party Chair Bob Tuke, Tipper Gore, and musician & Bush critic Tim McGraw.  DKos diarist Sidof79 keeps regularly tabs on the potential candidates, offering a near-monthly update.  However, so far we have only heard speculation.  Race tracker wiki: TN-Sen

Wyoming: It frequently feels like there are only two Democrats who live in Wyoming: extremely popular Governor Dave Freudenthal, who has demonstrated no interest in a Senate bid; and Gary Trauner, who very narrowly lost his 2006 at-large House challenge to Barbara Cubin and looks like he may be opting for a rematch there.  If I were to gauge the landscape right now, I would deem Mike Enzi the safest Republican up for re-election in 2008 (and the most likely to get a free ride), unless Governor Freudenthal finds the desire to run for Senate.  Surely, somewhere in Wyoming is a Jon Tester/Scott Kleeb-style progressive, populist farmer/rancher.  Race tracker wiki: WY-Sen

Again, every state should find a challenger.  These seven states are not un-winnable.  In fact, most of these states have the potential to be highly competitive races.  Of the seven, three (Kansas, Tennessee, and Wyoming) have very popular Democratic Governors who could immediately make for top-tier races in their respective states.  Alaska has, in my mind, a clear choice to pursue in Mayor Begich, with the offer of continued support through 2010.  Mississippi sees a possible retirement in Cochran as well as another obvious preferred candidate in former AG Moore.  In Georgia, Chambliss’ approval also looms around the low-50’s; maybe if we ask for Senator Cleland politely enough he’ll change his mind and immediately turn Georgia into a highly competitive race.  South Carolina is tough, but there should be no free rides.

Sen. Lamar Alexander has put an end to retirement rumors and said he will run for a second term to the U.S. Senate from Tennessee.

http://bluesunbelt.c…

by sidof79

After brief talk of his retirement after his current term expires, Lamar Alexander appears to be posed to defend his seat in 2008.  He was a surprisingly vocal opponent of The Surge, and yet still voted with the GOP when the time came.  He has hired Tom Ingram as his chief of staff, the same Tom Ingram who helped get Fred Thompson, Bob Corker, and Lamar himself get elected to the Senate (if you still think “flannel shirt” when you hear “Lamar Alexander,” that was Ingram’s idea).  Curiously, though, he has raised very little money at this point.  With all the talk about being a moderate, calling for bi-partisanship in the Senate, he remains a Bush rubberstamper (anti-gay marriage, pro-gun, pro-Bush tax cuts, pro-capital punishment, pro-life, anti-marijuana legalization, pro-social security privatization, pro-missile defense) and party loyalist.  So he needs to go.  Maybe they’ll talk him into another presidential run.  They’re asking pretty much everybody nowadays.  Here’s a look at his possible Democratic replacements.

http://bluesunbelt.c…

I’ve been nursing a nasty case of bronchitis this week, so I think that I’m only going to have energy to do a round-up style post this evening.  Let’s hit the ground running:

–NY-20: Recently-ousted ex-Rep. John Sweeney is apparently mulling a rematch against Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand.  I can only pray that the local GOP is foolish and/or desperate enough to let this thug try again. (Hat tip to the Political Wire.)
–TN-Sen: Dailykos diarist Sidof79 has an excellent rundown of possible competitors against Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander next year, from Harold Ford, Jr. to Tim McGraw.
–NC-Sen: In a hypothetical election match-up, Sen. Elizabeth Dole beats Democratic Rep. Bob Etheridge by a 45-30 margin, according to a new poll by Public Policy Polling.  That’s not especially strong.  (Hat-tips to Blue South and Senate 2008 Guru.)
–LA-Gov: According to the Cook Political Report, former Democratic Sen. John Breaux is seriously considering running for Governor this year.  Breaux’s Senate politics relied heavily on backroom, floor-crossing “dealmaking”, but I’d be content to let him have a try at this.  He’s our best shot at keeping the Louisiana Gubernatorial office in the Blue column.
–MI-07: The locals blast Republican Tim Walberg for supporting escalation in Iraq.