Tag: TX-Sen

It’s on.

U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison on Wednesday told WBAP’s Mark Davis she plans to officially launch her bid for Texas governor in August.  She added that she will step down from the U.S. Senate sometime in October or November to battle incumbent fellow Republican Governor Rick Perry.

Senator Hutchison said he wants to remain in the Senate long enough to fight against President Barack Obama’s government healthcare plan and cap and trade.

Hutchison also said, in the same interview, that she’ll be voting against Sonia Sotomayor. Gotta burnish those right-wing credentials in order to gear up for the fight over the sizable right-wing base in the GOP primary.

Roll Call has a piece from yesterday that predates this announcement, but discusses the mechanisms for a special election, and also looks a bit more at the potential candidates. GOPers would prefer that Hutchison not resign until when (or if) she actually wins the governor’s race, but she appears determined to bolt this year. If she does leave, Gov. Rick Perry will appoint a temporary successor (and signs point to Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst), but only until a special election can be held. If KBH resigns anywhere between Sept. 29 to Apr. 2 of next year, the special election, under Texas law, will be held on May 8. (H/t Taegan Goddard.)

UT-Austin (6/11-22, GOP voters, 2/24-3/6 in parens):

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 27 (36)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 38 (30)

Leo Berman (R): 1

Other: 7 (11)

Undecided: 26 (24)

(MoE: ±5.2%)

This is the third poll we’ve seen of the Texas gubernatorial primary since May (Rasmussen gave Perry a four-point lead, but a Baselice internal for Perry had KBH ahead by seven), and they all point to what appears to be one hell of a battle ahead of us. Despite KBH’s broad popularity in the state, Perry is still posting competitive numbers, and he’s no pushover when it comes to fundraising, either; he ended June with $9 million in the bank after raising $4.2 million in the last nine days of the month (the first period of the year in which he could legally accept donations).

Of course, with this poll’s rather rotund margin of error and its elongated sampling period, take this one with as many grains of salt as you desire. Less useful are these numbers of the Democratic primary:

Kinky Friedman (D): 13

Leticia Van de Putte (D): 12

Tom Schieffer (D): 3

Mark Thompson (D): 2

Someone else: 14

Undecided: 62

(MoE: ±6%)

Yeah, that’s right: Kinky Effin’ Friedman is leading the Democratic pack at this point, just barely nosing non-candidate Leticia Van de Putte. (Although, I suppose that “Someone else” technically has the lead…) Not included in this poll is former Travis Co. DA Ronnie Earle, who recently filed papers for a statewide run. It’s unclear, though, if Earle is more interested in Governor or Attorney General.

UT also included a Senate special election question in this round, and they found Democrat John Sharp leading the pack with a whopping 10% of the vote, followed closely by a pack of seven other candidates. With 62% of the electorate undecided, I think we can sit on this one until the race becomes a bit more defined. Full results are available here.

RaceTracker: TX-Gov | TX-Sen

• SC-Gov: You’ve probably already heard, but Mark Sanford finally turned up today, returning not from the Appalachian Trail but freakin’ Argentina, where apparently he decided to go for a spur-of-the-moment visit. Prepare a industrial-sized garbage bag full of popcorn for his 2 pm EDT press conference. [UPDATE: Well, in case you have a computer that only gets SSP and no other news outlets, it turns out that Sanford was in Argentina to break off an affair with an Argentinian woman he’d met via e-mail. He’s very sorry. He’s also resigning as head of the RGA.]

• AR-Sen: The Republican field of contenders to take on Blanche Lincoln just keeps getting bigger, and also keeps becoming more and more amateur-hour. Searcy “businessman” Fred Ramey entered the race (he owns a real estate investment company, which is apparently so successful that he also is a driver for Federal Express). Two other unknowns — retired Army colonel Conrad Reynolds and financial advisor Buddy Rogers — have also come forward to say they’re considering the race.

• FL-Sen: Mike Huckabee officially endorsed former state House speaker Marco Rubio in the GOP Senate primary today (although he had already made his feelings clear in an earlier e-mail to supporters touting Rubio). Seeking to grab the movement-conservative flag as he looks to take advantage of the growing GOP schism as he heads toward 2012, he also tore into the NRSC, who held a big fundraiser for Charlie Crist on Monday attended by 15 GOP Senators. Says Huck: “The establishment Republicans have made this endorsement for the same reason that they’re in so much trouble. They go out there and support stuff like TARP bills and stimulus packages, pork-barrel spending and huge debt, and they wring their hands and act like, ‘This is not good, but we don’t have a choice.'”

• KY-Sen: AG Jack Conway, who’s facing off against Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo in the Dem Senate primary, has the endorsement of the state’s entire Democratic U.S. House delegation (all two of them). Ben Chandler and John Yarmuth will both be on hand today for a big Washington DC fundraiser for Conway.

• TX-Sen (pdf): Texas Lyceum released a wide-ranging poll of Texans; one question they asked was who people were supporting in the event of a special election for the Senate. Fully 71% were undecided on this as-yet-non-existent race, but of the eight candidates (all asked together, rather than grouped by party), Democratic Houston mayor Bill White had the most support, at 9%. Other Dem contender John Sharp was at 2%; the top GOPers, AG Greg Abbott and LG David Dewhurst, each were at 4%. (They also polled the gubernatorial primary, finding Gov. Rick Perry beating Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison 33-21.)

• AK-Gov: Rumblings seem greater in the last few days that Sarah Palin is unlikely to run for a second term as Alaska governor, so that she can focus on a 2012 bid (and, in light of her declining statewide approvals, avoid the possibility of a career-ending loss in the governor’s election). (Potential opponent Andrew Halcro sums it up neatly: “If you’re Palin, once you’ve flown first class, you don’t go back to coach.”) With a recent Pew poll finding that Palin is the nation’s most popular Republican (key: among Republicans), striking while the iron is hot for 2012 makes sense. The DGA is certainly noticing, and they’re now touting Alaska as one of their four big pickup opportunities in a new fundraising e-mail (along with Florida, Georgia, and Minnesota… which might suggest they think California and Hawaii are in the bag).

• IL-Gov: A whole lot of longshots are piling up in the GOP column in the Illinois governor’s race, which now includes political consultant and TV commentator Dan Proft. Six other GOPers, none of whom seem known statewide, are already in the hunt.

• TX-Gov: State senator Leticia Van de Putte, whose name had cropped up a lot in connection with the Democratic nomination for Governor in recent weeks, released a statement yesterday saying she won’t run. Interestingly, instead of endorsing Tom Schieffer — whose Democratic credentials are kind of iffy — she suggested that fellow state Senator Kirk Watson should run instead.

• AL-02: No time for Congress, Dr. Love! Republican State Rep. and 2008 losing candidate Jay Love decided against a rematch with freshman Rep. Bobby Bright. The exit of Love, who barely lost in this R+16 district last time, means that Montgomery city councilor Martha Roby may escape a noxious primary (the GOP’s main problem last time).

• CA-11: Two Republican members of the Board of Supervisors of San Joaquin County (where almost half of this R+1 district’s votes are located) endorsed Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney yesterday, pleased with his constituent services and work to bring a VA hospital to the area.

• CA-50: We’re looking at a three-way Democratic primary in this R+3 district in northern San Diego county. Solana Beach city councilor Dave Roberts (a former Brian Bilbray supporter) is considering the race and will decide by July whether to jump in. He’d bring one advantage to his race against two-time candidate Francine Busby and attorney Tracy Emblem: he’s actually been elected to something.

• PA-06: PA2010’s Dan Hirschhorn observes that with a series of top-tier hires, Doug Pike is looking more and more like he’ll have the Dem field to himself. Pike has hired Neil Oxman’s Campaign Group to do his media, who’ve worked not only for Gov. Ed Rendell but also for former Senate candidate Joe Torsella and ’02 candidate Dan Wofford — both of whom have had their names tossed around as the most likely other people to run in PA-06. I’d initially assumed the never-before-elected journalist was something of a placeholder until someone higher on the food chain got in the race, but with these hires and the DCCC constantly touting him, it seems clear that Pike is impressing the right people.

• PA-15: Good news out of the Lehigh Valley: Bethlehem mayor John Callahan, who a few months ago had rebuffed requests that he run against Rep. Charlie Dent, may have had a change of heart. Callahan has approached Democratic party leaders about the race, and is now reportedly “seriously considering” running in this D+2 district.

• TN-03: Attorney and radio talk show host Chuck Fleischmann will formally announce his entry into the GOP primary field today in the Chattanooga-based R+13 3rd. Bradley Co. Sheriff Tim Gobble is already running, and former GOP state chair Robin Smith looks like she’ll get in, too.

• NY-St. Sen.: As if the standoff over control of the New York State Senate, tied 31-31, couldn’t get any more embarrassing, yesterday both parties held dueling special sessions… at the same time, in the same room, shouting to be heard over each other, with each side claiming to pass its own bills. Negotations to create a power-sharing arrangement have more or less collapsed.

• Voting Rights: Oregon just became the fourth state to allow online voter registration, joining Washington, California, and Arizona. One less reason to have to get up from behind your computer.

I just got back from a dual county fish fry between Denton and Collin county Democratic parties, and no I didn’t have the fish, I despise seafood.

Anyways, the speakers for the evening were Mayor Bill White, Former Comptroller John Sharp, Ambassador Schieffer, and candidate for TX-26 Neil Durrance. Before I go on, let me say I had already decided I was backing White for Senate, but I will try and be fair in my analysis (even if it sounds one sided, it’s how I saw it).

In Speaker order:

John Sharp for US Senate – Came across folksy and of the East Texas variety. Dry stump speech. Still, he’s starting charismatically at the level that Chris Bell finished in 2006, which is good enough to pass as a candidate. Got much better in the Q&A when he somehow started talking about the economy on a question that was about Iraqi withdrawal.

Bill White for US Senate – Best speaker of the night and it showed afterwards with the crowds that gathered around him afterwards. Very charismatic and as a candidate sounded like he was in a whole different world than the rest of tonight’s speakers and those from 2006 and 2008 (If Chris Bell at the end of the 2006 gov race was a jump from Bell at the beginning, and Noriega was a jump from that, White is a jump 3 times in candidate quality on the stump). White’s speech, unlike what I heard from the other candidates and what I heard from previous statewide candidates focused much more on policy and results rather than “we are right and we’re democrats, yadda yadda yadda, let’s go win!” But that’s what you get when you have a high level office holder running for a higher office. He also mentioned that his Q2 financial report should show he has more total donors this quarter than that of all the announced republicans combined. Additionally, White opened his speech with what I assume was a dig at Cornyn saying Texas needs a Senator who gets to work rather than working on helping their political party.

Neil Durrance for TX-26 – I’ve known Neil for a few years when he was county chairman for Denton county. Neil has said some odd things and is a bit odd himself, however, Neil The Candidate seems to be inclined to watch his tongue a bit better. Also, he is miles above the previous challengers for Burgess such as the old crazy guy (2008, Ken Leach), the crazy guy (2006, Tim Barnwell), and the professional clown whose highlight is that he got to hold his clown show for Christopher Reeve once (2004, Lico Reyes). Neil seems to be the first guy in this race who won’t embarrass Denton County Democrats since I started going to school up here. I think he can crack the 40% barrier in a CD-26 race which none of the previous candidates have done.

Tom Schieffer for Governor – Schieffer carries himself very well and I could see him as a governor. His speech focused a lot on education and how his time in Asia as Bush’s ambassador to Japan made him realize how far Texas was slipping in everything. While he is Bush’s friend, he is certainly not friends with Perry or Hutchison and seems eager to take them both on regarding economics. White and Sharp both spoke highly of Schieffer, so he seems to have the establishment support locked up, as a result my hopes of a Jim Turner candidacy seem to have died tonight. I also kinda doubt State Sen. Van Deputt or Travis County DA Ronnie Earle will jump in for Gov (although Lt. Gov and Attorney General are still available). Overall, very bland, but it looks like he’s it and seems fair enough to carry the banner. How the Senate special election ends up will result in how much attention Schieffer gets in his race.

Update: To summarize the themes of each candidate:

Sharp: Its the economy, and we’re going broke. Also, I’ll drop some code words that I may be the more socially liberal candidate.

White: I fixed Houston and rarely had a party line vote when I was Mayor. The future is education and energy investment.

Durrance: Reach out to independents and bring them into the process not because we’re Democrats, but because we are right.

Schieffer: I can manage businesses, The Texas Rangers, and the state of Texas where it starts with education. Also, being good for business goes beyond tax cuts.

Alright, that’s it. Let me know what ya’ll think and give me some questions if you can think of them. Hurry, my memory is going fast in my old age of 24!

Update2

I’m going to copy something said by my friend John McClelland in a comment on Burnt Orange Report. John was the Democratic nominee for Texas House District 64 (City of Denton) in 2008.

“I don’t want politicians who live in the past. When I listened to Scheiffer, and even John Sharp, it is like a frat boy talking about the good ol’ days that they want everyone else to relive. Unfortunately, we don’t live in the 70s and 80s anymore, and living in the past is what killed the Democratic Party in the first place.”

This kind of attitude/content came across in the Sharp and Schieffer speeches which may have helped present them as being a bit more boring compared to that of Mayor White’s. There is a very real stuck in the past mindset with a lot of the big names in Texas democratic politics. Heck, even Chris Bell couldn’t give a speech without mentioning how he filed an ethics complaint against Tom DeLay when he served in the House. I still think this is an important comment though addressing where Schieffer and Sharp are coming from compared to White.

• NJ-Gov: Believe it or not, we’re in the home stretch heading toward the June 2 primary in the New Jersey governor’s race, and Rasmussen takes a quick look at the GOP primary field. US Attorney Chris Christie leads former Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan 39-29, with 3% voting for someone else and 29% still undecided. That’s a lot of undecideds with just a few weeks to go, and I have no way of knowing whether they’d tend to break for the better-known establishment figure of Christie, or the anti-tax raging of Lonegan.

• TX-Sen: The last thing John Cornyn wants is a special election on his watch at the NRSC, but he may get one anyway. Despite his pressure on fellow Texan Kay Bailey Hutchison to remain in place while she runs for Governor, Cornyn is now publicly warning to expect her resignation “this fall sometime.”

• PA-Sen: Seems like the GOP is going through its whole Rolodex looking for someone more normal than Pat Toomey to run in the Pennsylvania primary. Two of the more moderate members of the Keystone State’s House delegation, Charlie Dent and Todd Platts, felt compelled to announce today that they won’t be running. Dent, in fact, endorsed Toomey, the previous holder of PA-15 (making him the first PA House GOPer to endorse Toomey).

• AR-Sen: State Senator Kim Hendren, the GOP’s only candidate so far against Blanche Lincoln (and they may want to keep looking…), has been in politics a long time (one claim to fame is that he lost a gubernatorial race to Bill Clinton). But now he actually seems to be caught in a timewarp from a different century. Today he’s trying to walk back having called Chuck Schumer “that Jew” (and, in doing so, tried using The Andy Griffith Show by way of explaining himself).

• IL-Sen: Speaking of shifts in the space-time continuum, Mark Tiberius Kirk’s end-of-April deadline on announcing his Senate plans has seemingly disappeared into a wormhole, while the GOP waits impatiently for him to emerge at the other end. (No backup date for a decision has been set.) A likely explanation is that he’s waiting to see what Lisa Madigan does, and he may meekly go wherever she doesn’t.

• SC-Gov: Who would’ve guessed that the South Carolina governor’s race would be one of 2010’s hottest tickets? Two more GOPers are trying to hop onto that ride: state Senator Larry Grooms, who officially launched a campaign, and state Rep. Nikki Haley, who now says she’s considering it. (Haley is a young rising star who’s a close ally of Mark Sanford and the hardcore anti-taxers.) They’d join Rep. Gresham Barrett and professor Brent Nelsen, as well as likely candidates Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer and AG Henry McMaster, in the hunt for the GOP nod.

• NC-08: Freshman Rep. Larry Kissell has drawn a potential opponent with no previous political background, but very high name rec: Mike Minter, who was safety for the Carolina Panthers for 10 years until recently retiring. Kissell handily beat incumbent Rep. Robin Hayes in 2008 in this now R+2 district, but Minter, who’s still scoping out the race, is well-connected in the local megachurch community and could also eat into Kissell’s African-American support. Minter is apparently looking with Hayes’ encouragement, suggesting that the 10-year Congressman is looking to spend more time with his money instead of seeking out a rematch.

• NRSC: Here’s a double shot of John Cornyn news: in another one of his occasional reality-based moments, Cornyn slapped down strange remarks by his NRCC counterpart, Rep. Pete Sessions, alleging that Barack Obama is intentionally sabotaging the American economy. When asked if he was comfortable with Sessions still leading the NRCC, Cornyn equivocated, deferring the judgment of the House Republicans on the matter. (Because “judgment” and “House Republicans” always go together so well.)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (4/20-22, registered voters, no trendlines). First up, the gubernatorial race:

Tom Schieffer (D): 37

Rick Perry (R-inc): 52

Undecided: 11

Tom Schieffer (D): 35

Kay Bailey Hutchison(R): 57

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±4%)

Tom Schieffer’s favorables are at 26-11, Rick Perry’s at 51-43 and KBH’s 64-29. Obviously we’ll want to face Perry if we hope to have much if any chance here. But even though R2K didn’t test the Republican primary, the favorability ratings among the GOP show what other polls have – KBH soars at 86-8 among members of her own party, while Perry sits back at a 76-19 rating. Still, I’m not willing to write Perry off for dead just yet.

And the Senate race:

John Sharp (D): 36

Greg Abbott (R): 43

John Sharp (D): 37

David Dewhurst (R): 44

John Sharp (D): 37

Michael Williams (R): 34

John Sharp (D): 37

Florence Shapiro (R): 33

Bill White (D): 36

Greg Abbott (R): 42

Bill White (D): 37

David Dewhurst (R): 43

Bill White (D): 38

Michael Williams (R): 34

Bill White (D): 38

Florence Shapiro (R): 33

(MoE: ±4%)

As you can see, it doesn’t much seem to matter who is paired against whom – the two Dems pull 36-38, while the better-known Rs (Abbott and Dewhurst) get 42-44 and the lesser-knowns (Williams and Shapiro) take 33-34. And this race, of course, might not ever happen, or at least, might not happen for a long time.

You probably also saw the delightful finding that fully half of Texas Republicans want Texas to be an independent nation, and more than half approve of Perry’s secessionist comments. Maybe he’s found a winning campaign issue! Anyhow, who wants to help `em pack?

• NY-20 (pdf): There’s light at the end of the tunnel in the NY-20 count, and as we get closer, Scott Murphy’s numbers keep going up. This morning’s BoE tally gives him a lead of 167, following the addition of more votes from Columbia, Dutchess, and Warren Counties (all of which Murphy won on Election Day).

Apparently all Saratoga County votes are accounted for, except for 700 challenged ballots, which, thanks to yesterday’s court ruling, will be counted. (While Saratoga County in general is Jim Tedisco’s turf, the Tedisco camp’s heavy use of challenges of student votes suggests that these votes may include a lot of votes from artsy Skidmore College in Saratoga Springs, which one would expect to lean Democratic.)

• CO-Sen: Finally, a GOPer commits to the Colorado senate race against appointee Michael Bennet. It’s Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier, who made his announcement while teabagging in Grand Junction. Frazier is 31 and African-American, so he brings an interesting backstory to the race, but it’s unclear whether his strength among conservative activists can overcome his otherwise low profile in the GOP primary (assuming anyone else bothers to show up).

• FL-Sen: Quinnipiac takes another look at the Florida senate race; not much has changed since last time, although one noteworthy finding is that Floridians would prefer to see Charlie Crist remain as governor rather than jump to senate, by a 42-26 margin. That doesn’t stop him from crushing in the senate primary (Crist beats Marco Rubio and Vern Buchanan 54-8-8). Buchanan leads a Crist-free primary, while on the Dem side, Kendrick Meek narrowly leads Pam Iorio (16-15, with 8 for Ron Klein, 5 from Dan Gelber, and a whole lotta undecideds).

• PA-Sen: John Peterson isn’t a make-or-break endorsement, but the former GOP representative from rural PA-05 said that he won’t support Arlen Specter’s re-election bid in 2010. He stopped short of endorsing Pat Toomey (Peterson supported Specter in the 2004 primary), but said it was time for Specter to retire. In other completely unsurprising endorsement news, the Club for Growth (of which Pat Toomey was president until several days ago) today endorsed Toomey’s bid. Laugh all you want, but Toomey will need all the financial help he can get; Specter hauled in $1.3 million in Q1 and is sitting on $6.7 million CoH.

• TX-Sen: Our friends at Burnt Orange Report have a nice graph showing Bill White and John Sharp dominating the fundraising chase so far in the hypothetical Texas senate race. (The chart doesn’t include GOP heavyweights Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and AG Greg Abbott, who haven’t taken formal steps for the race, but whose cash stashes are state-specific, putting them back to fundraising square one if they ran for senate.)

• CT-Sen: If Chris Dodd is going to win again in 2010, it’s going to be on the back of money, not popularity. Luckily, he still has lots of the former, as big-money donors aren’t being scared off by his poll numbers: he raised $1 million in the first quarter, with $1.4 million CoH.

• MN-Sen (pdf): Minnesotans would like the madness to stop, and would like to have a 2nd senator. PPP finds that 63% think that Norm Coleman should concede right now, and 59% (including 54% of independents) think Tim Pawlenty should sign Al Franken’s certificate of election right now. (This should give Pawlenty some pause as to whether or not to create further delay in the name of partisan politics, as he’s about the only person left who can drag this out.)

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt raised $542K in the first quarter, only about half of what Robin Carnahan raised. Our JeremiahTheMessiah came up with the best possible headline for this story:

Carnahan Smokes Blunt… In Fundraising

• GA-Gov: As reported in the diaries yesterday by fitchfan28, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle dropped out of the gubernatorial race, citing health concerns. Cagle was more-or-less front-runner, and his departure leaves SoS Karen Handel and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine to slug it out for the GOP.

• IL-10, PA-07: Two huge fundraising hauls (by House standards) from two candidates who may be looking to move up. Mark Kirk, who pulled in $696K in the first quarter, is supposed to decide soon whether or not to try for IL-Sen. (He has only $597K CoH, though, after burning through all his cash defending his seat in 2008. So he may just be raising hard in expectation of another top-tier challenge in 2010 in this blue district.)

Joe Sestak raised $550K in the first quarter, leaving him sitting on a mongo $3.3 million. Could this… plus his suddenly increased media presence, as he talks the defense budget and Don’t Ask Don’t Tell… be tea leaves that he may be the Dem who jumps into PA-Sen after all? (Sestak has previously declined, and he’s always been mentioned as an afterthought in this race after Allyson Schwartz and Patrick Murphy. But neither of them have made any moves, leaving Joe Torsella the only Dem challenger so far.)

• Numbers: California’s Secretary of State office finally released its Supplement to the Statement of Vote, heaven for nerds. Now you can look up Presidential and Prop 8 votes not just by congressional district, but by state senate or assembly district or even Board of Equalization district.

The University of Texas (2/24-3/6, GOP primary voters):

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 36

Rick Perry (R-inc): 30

Other: 11

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±5.8%)

With a rather portly MoE and an extended polling period, take this one with as many grains of salt as you wish. The last time we dipped our toes into the Lone Star state, Public Policy Polling released a survey in February showing Hutchison creaming Perry by a 56-31 margin; Team Perry must be relatively ecstatic to be seeing numbers like these instead. Burnt Orange Report‘s Phillip Martin offers his take:

While I still contend that polls are more or less meaningless at this stage of the game — as evidenced by 25% undecided — this should push back on the (worthless) conventional wisdom that Rick Perry is somehow out of this race. I still think Perry will win in the primary — he has a presence in the state, he is more connected with the hardcore base voters that will absolutely turn out to vote, and he’s a cyborg that never sleeps so he’ll be able to campaign 3-4 times more than Hutchison.

The UT poll also includes twelve head-to-head match-ups for Hutchison’s senate seat (assuming a vacancy occurs). Since front page real estate on SSP is a hot commodity, I won’t post the full list here, but the results are pretty predictable — Republicans lead most of the hypothetical match-ups by small margins, with huge chunks of undecided voters. In other words: it’s really too early to make sense of a largely undefined field. To see the full numbers for yourselves, click here.

Oh, and speaking of this race’s lack of definition… unnamed sources are telling Roll Call that Hutchison is likely to remain in the Senate while she wages a primary campaign against Perry. (Discussion of this point is already well underway in DTM,B!’s diary.) So, if Perry survives net year, we may not have an open seat Senate race to discuss here at all… unless KBH decides to throw in the towel in 2012, which I suppose isn’t out of the question.

Our friends at Public Policy Polling have a pair of new Texas polls out this week. Let’s have a look.

First, the presumably open seat Senate race (2/18-20, registered voters):

John Sharp (D): 36

David Dewhurst (R): 42

Undecided: 22

John Sharp (D): 36

Greg Abbott (R): 44

Undecided: 19

John Sharp (D): 37

Florence Shapiro (R): 36

Undecided: 29

Bill White (D): 37

David Dewhurst (R): 42

Undecided: 21

Bill White (D): 36

Greg Abbott (R): 42

Undecided: 22

Bill White (D): 36

Florence Shapiro (R): 37

Undecided: 27

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Need a scorecard? Here you go:

Former state Comptroller John Sharp

Houston Mayor Bill White

Lt. Governor David Dewhurst

Attorney General Greg Abbott

State Senator Florence Shapiro (Dallas/Fort Worth area)

Lots of numbers here, but unfortunately, all of this information may not be of much use to us at this point for a number of reasons: 1) Neither Abbott nor Dewhurst have announced their intentions to run, but also; 2) Assuming Hutchison resigns and a special election occurs, we’ll be first have to deal with a massive jungle-type primary with potentially dozens of candidates (Democrat, Republican, and freakazoid alike) throwing their ten-gallon hats into the pen. The top two will then advance to a run-off, so the events that lead us there could easily throw us all for a loop.

However, the immediate takeaway is that White and Sharp start off on nearly equal footing — their favorability ratings are a rough match (33-25 for Sharp and 31-26 for White), but both also have the most room to grow in this field in terms of name recognition — a little over 40% of voters don’t know diddly about either man, while Abbott and Dewhurst are known to 68% and 73% of respondents, respectively. (Unsurprisingly, though, Shapiro leads on this score with a 48% “not sure” rating.)

Oh, and speaking of that brewing gubernatorial primary battle… Hutchison is creaming Perry (2/18-20, likely GOP primary voters):

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 56

Rick Perry (R-inc): 31

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Things are looking pretty grim for Perr-Perr, though who knows how nasty this primary could get. Discussion already well underway in DTM,B!’s diary.

Just days after former state Comptroller John Sharp threw his hat into the ring for the Senate seat that Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison may vacate soon, the Houston Chronicle reports that Houston Mayor Bill White will join the race shortly:

Mayor Bill White has decided to seek the U.S. Senate seat held by Kay Bailey Hutchison, should the two-term Republican resign next year to challenge the sitting governor, the Houston Chronicle has learned.

Ending months of speculation about his political future, White plans to announce his intentions at an event next week, according to several sources close to the mayor. […]

White, a third-term mayor and former state Democratic Party chair, has been discussed for years as a possible gubernatorial candidate, in part because of his appeal as a popular, moderate leader from the state’s largest city.

Many political observers in Texas speculate that KBH will resign from the Senate sometime during the next year, which would trigger a free-for-all special election without party primaries. You can expect a lot of candidates to throw their hats into the ring if such a scenario occurs; in a 1961 Texas Senate special election, over 70 candidates ran for the vacant seat, and a much more modest list 24 names appeared on the pre-runoff 1993 special election ballot.

(H/T: Senate Guru)