This seems too good to be true. Rasmussen (5/1, likely voters):
Rick Noriega (D): 43
John Cornyn (R-inc): 47
(MoE: ±4%)
If this is anywhere near accurate, the results are shocking. But if Noriega is to make a race of this, he’ll have to get his fundraising machine in gear: his war chest is only 4% of Cornyn’s $8.7 million on-hand.
(H/T: JLGarsh)
So with eight months to go, I figure it’s time for an updated look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent. So I’ll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where there is a serious challenger to the incumbent (or at least the incumbent’s party, in cases of retirement), where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching. The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
Note: Some of this may seem repetitive, with information you already know. That’s because I originally wrote this for the Bruin Democrats, many of whom don’t follow the national races like we do. Consider this a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike.
Tier I
1. Virginia: Incredibly popular former Governor Mark Warner (D) is running for this seat that opened up when John Warner (R), no relation, announced his retirement. Warner left the governorship with a whopping 80% approval rating. That’s freaking unheard of. He’ll face another former Governor, Jim Gilmore (R), who some of you may remember tried running for President last year. Gilmore was known as the governor who helped drive the state into near-bankruptcy with his car tax cut, and Warner as the one who fixed the problem when he took over for Gilmore. Rasmussen Reports released a poll two weeks ago showing Mark Warner would CRUSH Jim Gilmore, 57%-37%.
2. New Hampshire: John Sununu (R) is about to become 2008’s version of Rick Santorum. Democrats could run a ham sandwich against him, and it would be a competitive race. No, really. But why settle for a ham sandwich when you can run the former governor? Jeanne Shaheen (D), who Sununu beat in 2002 thanks to some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, has led Sununu in almost every single poll taken. The latest from the University of New Hampshire shows her leading 54%-37%. Rasmussen shows a closer race, with her leading 49%-41%. A general rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble. Under 40%, and you can start writing their political obituary. Add to that, the fact New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, kicking out both Republican Congressmen and flipping over 80 seats in the state House, giving Democrats control of both state legislature for the first time since 1910, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent.
3. New Mexico: When Pete Domenici (R) announced he was retiring, it suddenly turned this former Tier III seat into a top tier race. Rep. Tom Udall (D) announced for this seat shortly thereafter. Yes, he is part of the famed Udall political family; his father Stewart served as Interior Secretary under JFK, and his uncle Mo was an Arizona Congressman for 30 years, also running for President in 1976. Stewart Udall was largely responsible for just about all the environmental laws that were passed in the 1960s. The GOP side will feature a primary fight between Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. So the entire New Mexico U.S. House delegation is running for this Senate seat! Before Udall even entered the race, hypothetical matchups from Research 2000 and SurveyUSA showed him crushing both GOP opponents by over 15 points. But a more recent Rasmussen poll shows a closer race, though with Udall still hitting the 50% mark in both matchups. The main New Mexico blog questioned the accuracy of the poll, given their matchup showing Obama tied with McCain, defying the trends you see in other states.
4. Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election. With two top challengers in comedian Al Franken and lawyer Mike Ciresi, Coleman had a change of heart on Iraq, actually criticizing Bush over his handling of Iraq for the first time in years. And the polls have been steadily favoring the Democrats, especially Franken. While earlier polls showed Coleman leading by double digits (though under the 50% mark), both Democrats have been steadily closing the gap. And in February, three polls came out showing Al Franken either leading Coleman or basically tied: Minnesota Public Radio (Franken 43.2%, Coleman 40%), Rasmussen (Franken 49%, Coleman 46%), and SurveyUSA (Coleman 47%, Franken 46%). Ciresi doesn’t seem to do as well. Franken is showing himself to be much more than just a comedian. In 2007, he raised close to $7 million from over 81,000 people! The Minnesota SEIU, a decent-sized union, just endorsed Franken too. In case you’re wondering, there’s no “primary” for the Democrats, but rather the nominee will be picked at the party convention this June among about 1,400 delegates.
5. Colorado: Wayne Allard (R) kept his pledge of only serving two terms, and is retiring from the Senate. Democrats have cleared the path for Rep. Mark Udall here. He’s Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin. On the GOP side, former Rep. Bob Schaffer is the likely nominee. Colorado has been trending bluer recently, picking up a Senate seat in 2004 (Ken Salazar), and a congressional district and the governor’s office in 2006. Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors. At the end of 2007, Udall was sitting on a $3.6 million warchest, with Schaffer trailing by over $2 million. Money isn’t everything, but damn. Dick Wadhams (no, really, that’s his name) is taking over Schaffer’s campaign. Wadhams got Allard first elected to the Senate, and became a rising start in the GOP for managing John Thune’s 2004 win over Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota. But, he was also in charge of managing George Allen’s 2006 re-election bid in Virginia, sending him from a 20-point lead seven months out to defeat. (Allen revealing his inner racist greatly helped, too.) However, recent Rasmussen polling shows Schaffer barely edging out Udall, so this race is far from a given pickup.
6. Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) is the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008. But how endangered that really is remains to be seen. She was able to win in 2002, a decidedly strong year for the GOP. Karl Rove was able to woo state treasurer John Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy family in Massachusetts) to switch parties to run for re-election to State Treasurer as a Republican last August, and after winning, he announced he would challenge Landrieu for her Senate seat. Party switching actually seems rather common in Louisiana. And hundreds of thousands of residents from New Orleans and the surrounding areas never came back to the state after Hurricane Katrina, making it even more red than it used to be. Bobby Jindal (R) didn’t even need a runoff to win the governor’s race last year, getting over 50% of the vote on the first ballot and performing stronger than expected. So that doesn’t bode well for Landrieu’s chances. The good news for her is that she raised over twice as much as Kennedy did in the fourth quarter last year (October – December) and has almost 10 times as cash on hand as he does.
7. Alaska: Ted Stevens (R) is always a candidate for retirement, being 85 years old now, but says he will seek a sixth term. But Stevens is in some legal trouble, with the FBI having raided his home last June in connection with possible bribes from Veco Corp., where several executives have already pled guilty to bribing his son Ben, who was the former state senate president. Former Veco CEO Bill Allen admitted some bribe money also went towards Ted Stevens. Democrats got their top choice when Anchorage mayor Mark Begich announced he was forming an exploratory committee (the first step in running). His father Nick Begich was a former Congressman, who was killed in a plane crash along with House Majority Leader Hale Boggs (D-LA) in 1972. A Research 2000 poll from December showed Begich already leading Stevens 47%-41%.
8. Oregon: Gordon Smith (R) has two challengers in lawyer/activist Steve Novick (D) and Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D). Smith’s approvals from 2007 are not as good as they were in 2006 and before. We’ll see if that trend continues. The state party itself is in financial trouble too, facing over a quarter million dollars in debt, and the IRS is calling for some missing payroll taxes. Rasmussen polling still shows Smith with double digit leads over both Democrats, but he is under the 50% mark. Interesting to note, Smith is actually a cousin to the two Udalls running for Senate.
9. Maine: Susan Collins (R) doesn’t have the stature that fellow Senator Olympia Snowe (R) has. Rep. Tom Allen (D) is running to challenge Collins. But even though Maine is a blue state, he’ll have an uphill climb. Collins has worked hard to craft her moderate credentials. The most recent polls all show Collins over the 50% mark, with almost 20-point leads over Allen. And the Maine newspapers suck. I mean, really suck.
10. Texas: John Cornyn (R) has some pretty anemic poll numbers, and the immigration issue seems to have triggered a change in the Latino community. State rep. Rick Noriega (D) got a nice boost when wealthy trial attorney Mikal Watts (D) dropped out of the race and threw his support to Noriega, ensuring a united Democratic front against Cornyn in November. Noriega is also Lt. Col. in the Texas National Guard, served in Afghanistan after 9/11, and was chosen to coordinate relief efforts in Houston after Hurricane Katrina. Earlier polling shows Texans are largely dissatisfied with Cornyn, and a baseline poll from last September showed Cornyn beating Noriega 51%-35%, with only 40% saying Cornyn deserved re-election. And that was before Watts dropped out of the Democratic primary. The Texas GOP seems to be concerned about this race, as they recently demanded Noriega release his military records… to them. Instead, Noriega released his records to the entire public and denounced their swiftboating tactics at the same time. Well played, sir. However, the fundraising numbers are troubling, with Cornyn having outraised Noriega by more than a 4-to-1 margin in the fourth quarter, and Noriega trailed by almost $7 million in cash on hand to end the year.
Tier II
I decided, for the sake of my own sanity, not to try to rank the Tier II and III races. These are given in alphabetical order, by state.
Kentucky: Even though Mitch McConnell (R) became the Senate Minority Leader, he is a top target of the Democrats. And with former Governor Ernie Fletcher (R) losing his re-election bid to Steve Beshear (D) 59%-41% last November, that made Kentucky Democrats even more confident. But then Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo (D) and State Auditor Crit Luallen (D) both declined to run, and netroots favorite Lt. Col. Andrew Horne (D), a Marine who has served in both the Persian Gulf War and the Iraq War, dropped his bid. Rasmussen had shown both Stumbo and Luallen holding McConnell under the 50% mark, and for the Senate Minority Leader who can bring home the pork, that showed significant dissatisfaction with McConnell in Kentucky. Now, the Democratic establishment seems to have coalesced around wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford, who’s lost several primaries before, and ticked off a lot of Democrats by endorsing Fletcher over Ben Chandler (D) for Governor back in 2003 after losing the primary to Chandler. The blogs are, ah, less than pleased. We’ve yet to see how Lunsford would match up against McConnell.
Mississippi-B: Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year’s Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, won’t have all the incumbency power Lott had accumulated over the years. Wicker was the Congressman from MS-01, so he’s won elected office previously. But Democrats scored a huge get when former Governor Ronnie Musgrove announced he was running for Senate, and former Rep. Ronnie Shows (D) ended his campaign, deferring to Musgrove. Some polls have shown this matchup would be close.
Nebraska: With Chuck Hagel (R) retiring, all eyes had turned to former Nebraska Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey (D) to see if he would challenge for this open seat. But, he announced last October that he wouldn’t run. But Mike Johanns (R), who was also a former Governor of Nebraska, quit his job as Bush’s Agriculture Secretary to run for the seat. The netroots were thrilled when rancher and history professor Scott Kleeb (D) threw his hat in the ring. While Kleeb lost the NE-03 House race in 2006, that district is the most Republican in Nebraska, and Kleeb got a higher-than-expected 45% of the vote. That’s had a lot of people thinking he would actually win in the other two districts, and thus a statewide race. Of course, that doesn’t take into account how he’d be running against the former governor of the state.
South Dakota: Tim Johnson (D) is fully back at work after suffering a brain hemorrhage in December 2006. His illness had made Republicans hesitant to challenge or attack him. Governor Mike Rounds (R) would be a top challenger, but hasn’t made any indications that he will give up his governorship for the seat. And when polling shows Johnson may be the most popular Senator in the country, why would he?
Tier III
Alabama: The Democrats’ top hope in Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks announced he was not running, leaving little-known state senator Vivian Figures (D) the only challenger to incumbent Jeff Sessions (R). But… with the recent 60 Minutes piece on former Alabama governor Don Siegelman (D) being sent to prison on incredibly flimsy charges which Karl Rove may have had a hand in, those of us who’ve been following the story know that the guy who supposedly gave illegal contributions to Siegelman had also done the exact same thing with Sessions. And it seems Sessions was desperate enough to try and kill the 60 Minutes story before it aired. So there’s a chance Sessions will get ensnared in this growing scandal, in which case his seat may not be so safe. But for now, it’s still Tier III.
Idaho: It’s looking like a rematch between Lt. Governor Jim Risch (R) and former Congressman Larry LaRocco (D), who lost the 2006 Lt. Gov. race to Risch by a sizable 58%-39% margin. While LaRocco finished 2007 with more cash on hand than Risch, he had been raising money for most of 2007, while Risch only jumped in after the Larry Craig airport bathroom… ah… incident.
New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D) said he’s running again, but his age is always a concern, as he is already 84 years old right now. His poll numbers also don’t look that good, but no New Jersey politician’s numbers ever look really good. But no top-tier challenger has yet stepped up to challenge him. Anne Estabrook (R) recently plopped $1.6 million of her own money into her campaign, but when she answers questions like this, Lautenberg may not have much to worry about.
North Carolina: Both Governor Mike Easley (D) and state rep. Grier Martin (D) decided not to run for this seat, giving Elizabeth Dole (R) some good news. The declared Democrats are state senator Kay Hagan and businessman Jim Neal. The blogosphere seems to be supporting Neal in this race. FYI, if Jim Neal were to get the Democratic nomination and then beat Dole in the general, he would be the first openly gay Senator in U.S. history.
Oklahoma: James Inhofe (R) looks pretty safe, though interestingly enough, Inhofe has never gotten to 50% approval in the history of SurveyUSA’s polling. State senator and netroots favorite Andrew Rice (D), who lost his brother in the 9/11 attacks, has declared for this race.
South Carolina: This race is only in Tier III because Lindsey Graham (R) may actually be primaried out of his own party, for his support of Bush’s immigration plan. The natives are restless. A party switch is much less likely, but a different senator serving in this seat come 2009 is a distinct possibility.
Tennessee: Well, businessman Mike McWherter (D), son of former Tennessee Governor Ned McWherter (D), announced back in November that he was not going to run for this seat, a blow for Democrats. But, former Tennessee Democratic Party chair Bob Tuke announced last week that he will run. It remains to be seen if Tuke can make this a real race against Lamar Alexander (R), who was also a two-term governor of Tennessee and the Secretary of Education under George H.W. Bush.
Democratic safe seats
Arkansas (Mark Pryor)
Delaware (Joe Biden, so safe I forgot to include him last time)
Illinois (Dick Durbin)
Iowa (Tom Harkin)
Massachusetts (John Kerry)
Michigan (Carl Levin)
Montana (Max Baucus)
Rhode Island (Jack Reed)
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)
Republican safe seats
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)
Kansas (Pat Roberts)
Mississippi (Thad Cochran)
Wyoming (Michael Enzi)
Wyoming (John Barrasso)
So there you have it, my personal rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand at the beginning of March. Things can still change if some candidates jump in or drop out. But the filing deadline has already passed in some states, so getting our dream candidate in some of these races has already passed. And we won’t know what the national mood will be 8 months from now. Still, given that, these are my picks, and I’m sticking with them… until my next update, at least.
Feel free to rip me apart in the comments, telling me I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about, how could I possibly put a certain race in Tier II or III when it’s so obviously a top tier race, why I’m being too optimistic in some seat, etc. Have at it, folks. 🙂
I’d like to announce some really great (and even surprising) poll results regarding the Texas Senate race here in Texas. The following poll was conducted a couple weeks ago by Lake Research, a highly regarded polling firm. Analysis of each major point will be below the section.
The survey was conducted among 500 registered voters in Texas who are likely to vote in the 2008 General Election. The survey was conducted November 13-18, 2007. The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 4.4 percentage points.
1. Opinion of John Cornyn
40% favorable
22% unfavorable
24% no opinion
14% never heard of him
Cornyn has been a statewide elected official since 1990- he’s been a Supreme Court Justice, Attorney General, and Senator. Given all that, only 62% of Texans know enough of Cornyn to have an opinion of him. That’s pretty shocking but verifies the rumors I heard earlier this year from other polls that said about a 1/3 of the state has no idea who he is. So even though Rick Noriega, like most Texas Democrats, is not well known by the general electorate yet, Sen. Cornyn does not enjoy as large of an name ID advantage as we might think.
2. Job Approval of John Cornyn
36% favorable
41% unfavorable
23% no opinion
Cornyn continues to maintain a net negative job approval rating in stark contrast to Texas’ other Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison who fares over 20% points better. While 1/4th of voters don’t know enough to have an opinion, those who do clearly aren’t happy with what they see. Cornyn’s base of support is weak and there is a large pool of voters who seek change.
3. Re-Elect of John Cornyn
31% vote to re-elect
16% vote to replace
53% consider someone else
Texas voters are very open to replacing Cornyn as 69% want to replace or will consider replacing him. Having a 31% re-elect number is awful for Cornyn and is probably one of the most concerning results for him in this poll.
4. Approval of Bush in Texas
20% very favorable
22% favorable
16% unfavorable
37% very unfavorable
The President has lost the support of his home state with a 53% unfavorable rating to 42% favorable among Texans. Talk about a turnaround. Bush is the personification of the Texas Republican Party. If voters are rejecting him, including 37% who deeply disapprove, the Democratic nominee can count on a larger and more passionate partisan base vote in 2008. Cornyn’s continued attempts to tie himself to the President will only serve to drag him down.
5. Country Right/Wrong Track
62% Country on off on the wrong track
28% Country heading in right direction
Wow. Those numbers indicate that Texans think that the country has not only gone off in a wrong direction, but that’s it’s jumped clearly off the tracks. Cornyn’s claims that we need to stay the course in Iraq, stay the course on tax cuts causing a ballooning deficit, and stay the course on a health care system that is broken are so out of touch the only course he’ll be staying on is a golf course after we retire him from office in 2008.
A few hours ago Rick Noriega filed the paperwork necessary at the Texas Democratic Party headquarters here in Austin in his efforts to take on Sen. John Cornyn as a Democratic candidate for change here in Texas.
“It’s time that we quit having show horses and that we have work horses for the people of the state of Texas,” Noriega told an enthusiastic group at the Democratic Party headquarters.
Party chairman Boyd Richie said he wasn’t endorsing Noriega in the primary, but spoke beside him at his news conference and called it “an exciting day.”
In launching his campaign he spoke to some of the principal reasons for why he’s running.
Noriega, a lieutenant colonel in the Texas Army National Guard who spent 14 months in Afghanistan, said he supports firm timetables for withdrawing troops from Iraq. He said the war – which he insists on calling “an occupation” – has been mismanaged. He said he wants to tie funding for the Iraq war to a “logistically reasonable” timetable for withdrawal that includes the safe removal of troops and equipment.
“When we are at war, America wins wars. We are in an occupation of a country currently,” Noriega said. “The American people are tired of being misled and misinformed, and not one more drop of blood of one of my brethren is going to bring a political resolution in that region.”
I’ve included his prepared remarks for his announcement below the fold but I want to highlight two paragraphs from it that really put this campaign into perspective.
We enter this campaign under no illusions. Few people today, if asked, recognize the name Rick Noriega. But when you go beyond the superficial questions, you’ll find that millions share what our campaign stands for. This campaign is not about making my name a household name. It’s not about a Democrat versus a Republican. It’s not about two people, Rick Noriega versus John Cornyn. As we prepare to spend the next 11 months traveling this state, we plan to talk about who this campaign is really for. This campaign is for the moms, dads, and grandparents who are caring for the children of troops who have been deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan over and over again. It’s for our veterans who have served our country, but return home and carry on without adequate medical care, or health insurance for their children. And it’s for the countless Texas families who work hard, yet find that health insurance, and college, and housing remain just out of reach.
For them, we can no longer call this an Exploratory Campaign. This is a mission to reclaim our United States Senate seat. This is a mission to restore true Texas values. There will be those who sit back and judge from the sidelines. But week-by-week, month-by-month, they will be outnumbered by the regular Texans who are ready to reclaim America’s global standing, Texas’ true values, and the United States Senate seat that belongs not to the politicians, but to the people.
ANNOUNCEMENT OF CANDIDACY FOR U.S. SENATE
Draft Remarks by Rep. Rick Noriega
December 3, 2007Good morning. Today marks the last day of our Exploratory Campaign for the United States Senate and the first of my official candidacy to unseat Republican John Cornyn. It’s time all Texans had representation in the United States Senate. It’s time to put an end to the politics of division. It’s now time to work together to get our country back on track.
We are wasting no time. Today is the first day of the candidate filing period, and I have in hand the official forms, completed and signed, along with the candidate filing fee to offer myself for service as a Democratic candidate to be the next United States Senator to serve the Great State of Texas.
After a grueling legislative session, Melissa and I had long talks about the state of politics in Texas. Our concern is one shared by Texans across our state, we’re frustrated with political leadership that is out-of-touch with the fundamental values of regular Texans. Texans want to invest in education, protect the health of children, and respect the privacy of law-abiding citizens.
We have long been involved at the grassroots level. But it had become increasingly clear that the politics of arrogance that puts special interests ahead of the public interest was coming from higher up the ladder. It was time to challenge the politics of Karl Rove. Their game plan has been to divide. Our mission must be to unite.
So in mid-June, in the heat of the summer, we launched our Exploratory campaign for the United States Senate. We traveled from Houston to Austin, Uvalde to Amarillo, Dallas to El Paso. We listened to people’s hopes, dreams and concerns. We shared ideas on how we can bring an end to the War in Iraq and address the issues our families face here at home. And I challenged Texans from all walks of life to join me in answering the call. We launched our campaign at the foot of the Heroes of the Alamo statue. And everywhere we’ve traveled, Texans stepped up, crossed the line in the sand, and answered the call.
When you take the time to break bread with Texans, you see a very different picture than what is portrayed in the media. The media looks at John Cornyn’s bank account, but voters look at their own – weighing the needs of saving for a college education for their children, while hopefully not letting go of their dreams for retirement. The media believes it’s all about TV and negative attacks, but voters have become increasingly sophisticated. They don’t believe everything they hear, and for good reason. And when it comes to joining hands with others to get our state and country back on track, they’re willing and ready to get to work.
For Melissa and I, public service has always been a calling. I heard and answered the call as a young man, seeing the news as hundreds of Americans were taken hostage in our nation’s Embassy in Iran. I’ve continued to answer the call in the National Guard, serving a tour of duty in Afghanistan alongside some everyday American heroes. I answered the call, as thousands of Texans did, doing my part to provide shelter and hope to families fleeing the devastation of Hurricane Katrina. Texans understand the difference between self-service and public service. Unfortunately, it’s a lesson lost on the junior Senator from Texas. Today, we have the opportunity to correct course, and that’s why I’m answering this next call to service to help get our country back on track.
We enter this campaign under no illusions. Few people today, if asked, recognize the name Rick Noriega. But when you go beyond the superficial questions, you’ll find that millions share what our campaign stands for. This campaign is not about making my name a household name. It’s not about a Democrat versus a Republican. It’s not about two people, Rick Noriega versus John Cornyn. As we prepare to spend the next 11 months traveling this state, we plan to talk about who this campaign is really for. This campaign is for the moms, dads, and grandparents who are caring for the children of troops who have been deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan over and over again. It’s for our veterans who have served our country, but return home and carry on without adequate medical care, or health insurance for their children. And it’s for the countless Texas families who work hard, yet find that health insurance, and college, and housing remain just out of reach.
For them, we can no longer call this an Exploratory Campaign. This is a mission to reclaim our United States Senate seat. This is a mission to restore true Texas values. There will be those who sit back and judge from the sidelines. But week-by-week, month-by-month, they will be outnumbered by the regular Texans who are ready to reclaim America’s global standing, Texas’ true values, and the United States Senate seat that belongs not to the politicians, but to the people.
Readers of Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races may notice in the upper left hand corner of the website that we have a new addition to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page: State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega. Representative/Lt. Col. Noriega has ignited the grassroots and netroots and achieved broad support among the establishment. Noriega is a terrific candidate and understands the meaning of words like “duty” and “service.” Further, incumbent Republican and Bush rubber stamp John Cornyn is extremely vulnerable. To recognize State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega’s addition to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page, I would love to see readers of the Guru’s blog put up a half dozen contributions to Noriega today. Just six contributions – you can do it! Whether you can contribute $100 or $10, please contribute if you can! Many thanks!
According to Todd Hill at the Burnt Orange Report, State Rep. Rick Noriega is set to form an exploratory committee in one week to challenge Republican Sen. John Cornyn. This move would put him up against trial lawyer Mikal Watts for the Democratic nomination. Watts has already shown an early hustle, helping raise $1.1M for the DSCC back in April, and injecting $3.8 million of his own funds into his Senate campaign a few weeks ago. Noriega, a Houston Democrat who has been the target of a draft campaign, didn’t appear daunted at the time, and has been busy preparing for a run after his wife’s recent election for the at-large Houston City Council district formerly held by the one and only Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. According to the Austin American-Statesman:
Noriega, a fifth-term Democratic state representative from Houston, said he won’t finalize plans until he and his wife, Melissa, settle their finances, partly by selling property in East Austin. But he has already committed to a year’s leave from his job as a manager for CenterPoint Energy. (Emphasis added)
And while Watts will still have his impressive financial prowess, Noriega will have the support of many of his colleagues in the state legislature: 49 of his 68 fellow Democrats in the Texas House have signed a public letter supporting the draft efforts.
The Statesman gives a better taste of the upcoming Noriega candidacy:
Watts and Noriega paint Cornyn as weak and obedient to President Bush, a critique that Cornyn disputes.Noriega, whose great-grandmother crossed into Texas from Mexico in 1916, is author of a law permitting in-state college tuition rates for illegal immigrants.
He said Senate inaction on immigration showed Cornyn’s inability to work across party lines. Cornyn, like many Republicans, did not go along with what had been pitched as compromise legislation bringing Democrats and the White House together.
Noriega favored the bill.
Noriega accused Cornyn of pandering to a “fringe ideology” by voting to have a fence built on stretches of the U.S.-Mexico border. Noriega called the fence a waste of money unlikely to stem illegal immigration.
“Doesn’t make sense,” Noriega said of Cornyn’s position. “It’s a function of a lack of understanding, inexperience, not listening to the professionals on the ground.”
Noriega favors removing U.S. troops from Iraq. He doesn’t want to see more friends coming home in boxes.
Noriega said that if he runs, he’ll talk up the idea of Americans committing to public service: “The question becomes: What do we do individually to ensure that we as a nation are on the right path?”
As long as this primary remains “good clean fun” (a tall order, but it is my understanding that both candidates have pledged to run positive campaigns), a Watts-Noriega battle could do a lot for raising the profile of this race and energizing the grassroots across Texas.
Let the games begin.
Republican Sen. John Cornyn’s first announced opponent, Mikal Watts, is bringing the noise:
San Antonio trial lawyer Mikal Watts has launched his bid for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination by donating and loaning his campaign fund a total of $3.8 million — an amount equal to Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn’s cash on hand.“I took John Cornyn’s first-quarter report and matched it to the penny,” Watts said.
“We’re going to start with a level playing field, and then we’re going to start raising money and see what the people of Texas have to say.”
Watts, 39, donated $1.9 million to his exploratory committee and loaned it another $1.9 million. He formed the committee June 1, and its paperwork was available Wednesday.
And Watts won’t have much trouble raising money, if his $1.1 million fundraiser for the DSCC back in April is any indication. Altogether a shrewd move by Watts — you’ve got to believe that some of Watts’ potential primary opponents would think twice about going up against that kind of money. And, as Burnt Orange Report commenter colin argues, if you’re going to partially self-fund, you might as well do it early to stave off “sluggish fundraising” narratives.
UPDATE: State Rep. Rick Noriega, another potential entrant in the Democratic primary, responds:
Noriega said Thursday: “I am seriously looking at the race, but whether or not I get in or not, I have no intention of getting into a back and forth with a bank account. I do not want to reinforce the unhealthy idea that a candidate is judged solely on money.“My focus would be the people of the state of Texas and whether (GOP U.S. Sen. John) Cornyn’s rubber stamp support for Bush, and the national leadership that has failed to provide a clear mission for our involvement overseas, is good for Texas.
(H/T: BOR)
Race Tracker: TX-Sen
From the Austin American-Statesman:
U.S. Rep. Nick Lampson of Stafford, near Houston, is letting it be known he’s not running next year for the U.S. Senate seat held by John Cornyn, Lampson’s political strategist says.Mustafa Tameez of Houston, a political consultant to Lampson, said this morning that Lampson, the Democrat who last year captured the U.S. House seat vacated by Tom DeLay of Sugar Land, intends to seek re-election instead fully knowing that his district historically leans Republican.
A Senate bid is “not going to happen,” Tameez said. “It sounds goofy, but he feels like he made a commitment to the people of Congressional District 22.” Tameez said Lampson feels a Senate try would be “disingenuous.”
Tameez aired Lampson’s decision to stamp out speculation regarding a Senate bid. “We just want it to stop,” he said (unwittingly the desire of some observers of this legislative session).
And I’m glad to hear it. I’ve always had my doubts as to whether or not Lampson could be inspiring enough to win stateswide. With this move, Lampson is securing the goodwill of the local activists who worked their hides off to elect him in the first place last November while clearing the field for another candidate to take a run at Sen. John Cornyn (R).
(H/T: Anesthetic)
Hot on the heels of the DSCC’s newest poll showing Texas Sen. John Cornyn in a weak position for his re-election bid, here’s a blast from Texas’ recent past:
I wanna meet the marketing genius who came up with these. Truly powerful stuff.
(H/T: trowaman)
Race Tracker: TX-Sen
Tonight brings our fourth and final installment in our series of Senate recruitment open threads. For the past several weeks, the Swing State Project has been cracking open the field of GOP-held Senate seats up for grabs in 2008, and inviting you to submit your recruitment ideas for each of these races. For a look back at the previous discussions, see here (AK, AL, AR, GA & ID), here (KS, KY, ME, MN & MS), and here (NC, NE, NH, NM, OK).
Here are our targets for this week. Links are to the 2008 Race Tracker wiki for inspiration, and incumbents are in parens:
16) Oregon (Gordon Smith)17) South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)
18) Tennessee (Lamar Alexander)
19) Texas (John Cornyn)
20) Virginia (John Warner)
21) Wyoming (Mike Enzi)
As always, don’t feel limited to submitting the names of traditional politicians. Businesspeople, community leaders, activists, writers, musicians, athletes or celebrities are all fair game. I have already seen a number of very creative suggestions in previous weeks. You never know who’s reading or what kind of traction these ideas could generate. So have at it!