Tag: VA-Sen

(If you’ve got any other Q2 numbers, post them in the comments. – promoted by James L.)

[Originally posted today at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Q2 Fundraising: Second quarter fundraising figures are beginning to trickle in.  The Hill reports: Thad Cochran (R-MS) dropped to $275,000; Katrina Swett (D-NH) raised “about” $700,000; Jon Bruning (R-NE) took in over $720,000; Mike Ciresi (D-MN) raised over $735,000; Steve Marchand (D-NH) brought in about $100,000; Steve Novick (D-OR) took in $190,000; and, recovering Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) neared a goal of $600,000.  UNO Dems reminds us that “Bob Kerrey’s still got about $400,000 cash on hand from his old Senate campaign account.”  Norm Coleman (R-MN) raised around $1.5 million.  Larry LaRocco (D-ID) raised about $80,000.

Also: John Warner prepares us for another notoriously low fundraising quarter.  (Retirement announcement on the way?)

Last night rep Tom Davis, republican of Virginia appeared on Stephen Colbert’s “better know a district.”  This is important for two reasons.  First of all it increases Davis’ visibility amongst younger voters, and as a possible nominee for the 2008 senate seat it will certainly help.  Another thing is that he was the first republican congressman to appear on the show in a LONG time.  Usually they’re too afraid of looking silly to go on, not that he didn’t look silly.  Stephen insinuated Davis was having an affair with DC “rep” Eleanor Holmes Norton because Davis was in favor of Norton’s bill to give DC a seat in the House.  The question is whether this is Davis’ way of getting ready to run for John Warner’s seat should he retire, a sign he won’t run for the seat, or Davis just wanted to have some fun.

We don’t have a crystal ball.  We never understood Tarot cards.  We can’t read Senator John Warner’s mind.  And we certainly don’t have any informants in the upper ranks of the Virginia Republican Party.

But we do have FEC filings, and they may very well be just as useful to find out whether John Warner is running for another term in the Senate or not.  As you may recall, rumors were floating last month that Warner had signalled his preferred successor, Rep. Tom Davis, to prepare himself to run in his place.  This was amidst news that Mark Warner, the mind-bogglingly popular former Virginia Governor, was considering a Senate run regardless of Warner’s decision.

Well, Tom Davis filed his first quarter fundraising reports today, and money talks:

Tom Davis (R): $623,463 raised; $833k cash-on-hand

$623k almost two years before the next election is an astronomical amount raised for a House campaign.  While I haven’t seen all of the fundraising reports, it could very well be the highest haul of all House members this year.  The next higest fundraising total was a similarly impressive number: $600k for freshman Democrat Ron Klein of Florida.  Klein, however, occupies a bizarrely-drawn district with an insanely expensive media market, so he needed to post a larger-than-average 1Q report to deter any potentially strong challengers.

Stack up Davis’ $623,000 next to Warner’s five Benjamins (yes, that’d be $500 even) raised during the same time frame, and I think we may have some pretty compelling evidence to believe that John Warner is heavily leaning towards retirement.

Let the games begin.

Race Tracker: VA-Sen | VA-11

(Bumpedity bumped. – promoted by James L.)

Could this really be true? Via MyDD, John Warner’s campaign finance report for 1Q 2007 – and the first line is really all you need:

Total Receipts: $500

No, I’m not leaving off a “K” at the end there. That’s five hundred dollars even – five Benjamins exactly. Is this for real? Or did some staffer or FEC clerk screw up?

Fact is, I could believe it. I definitely could. Jon Singer over at MyDD thinks that Warner would have to be literally turning money away in order to raise so little. Perhaps he’s just using his dead presidents to light cigars. (But even then, he’d have to report it! So can that theory.) But John Warner is an old man, and he may well be hanging up his spurs.

In that case, clear the path for Mark Warner. And hang on to your hats in VA-11, a dead-even swing district whose current Rep., Tom Davis, is the likely Republican nominee in the event of a John “Five Franklins” Warner retirement.

Race Tracker: VA-Sen | VA-11

As we all know by now, the DSCC is heavily courting former Virginia Governor Mark Warner to run for the U.S. Senate in 2008–and, remarkably, Warner is not ruling it out, even if longtime incumbent John Warner decides not to retire.

What this creates is a possible dream scenario in Virginia:  John Warner, having survived a close call by a self-funding Mark Warner in 1996, had a difficult enough time beating back a challenge against a political unknown, winning by only 5 points.  At the time, the elder Warner remarked:  “It was tough – a tough two years.”  The conventional wisdom is that John Warner, who will be 81 in 2008, would not mind another term in the Senate–he just doesn’t want to campaign for it.

So, Mark Warner enters the race.  John Warner gets the spooks and announces an early retirement, making way for his preferred successor: 11th district Rep. Tom Davis (R).  In fact, the WaPo has already indicated that Warner has signaled Davis to get ready:

However, some doubt John Warner’s commitment to run. One Republican active in Virginia politics said that Warner has told U.S. Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.) to prepare to run if the senator decides against another bid. “Davis is actively calling people and is saying on the calls that he has been told by Warner to get ready,” the source said.

Davis would be a pretty strong candidate for the Republicans: he currently represents one of their weaker areas of the state–the rapidly diversifying D.C. suburbs in Prince William and Fairfax counties.  This is the one region that has been nudging Virginia closer and closer to the left.  Take a look at the district’s chronolgy:

2004: John Kerry wins 49.29% of the district’s vote to George Bush’s 49.92%
2005: Tim Kaine (D) wins 55.67% of the vote to Jerry Kilgore’s 42.42%
2006: Jim Webb (D) wins 54.69% of the vote to George Allen’s 44.20%

So Davis could be strong statewide against an average Virginia Democrat, but he wouldn’t stand a chance against Mark Warner, who retired with a mind-boggling 80% approval rate.  And with the recent robust victories of Tim Kaine and Jim Webb in the 11th, Democrats would clearly be well-poised to capture this open seat with a strong candidate.  Any idea who we’d run for it?

Man oh man, what a glorious twofer it would be: a pick-up in both the Senate and House–both of which will be badly-needed to protect and expand the Democratic majorities.  If Chuck Schumer pulls this off (and he has had some stellar success in the past in this area–see Missouri, 2006), he could very well be elevated to demigod status.

Race Tracker: VA-Sen | VA-11

According to the Washington post, (link http://blog.washingt…) former presidential possibility mark warner is considering a run at Virginia’s senate seat in 2008.  He’s spoken with Chuck Schumer repeatedly, and will not rule out a run, with or without Senator John Warner running.  If (Mark) Warner does indeed run, this would be momentous.  For one, it’s another senate seat that opens up, possibly expanding our majority.  Two, he might bring out voters and maybe even put Virginia into the dems column in the prez race for the first time since 1964.  It could also bring out voters and get other house candidates elected in Virginia.  This would be a top-tier race (Assuming both Warners run, mark Vs another candidate, such as Rep Tom Davis might lean more to our favor) and his running would have immense repercussions come 08.  Let’s hope he dives in!

Tonight brings our fourth and final installment in our series of Senate recruitment open threads.  For the past several weeks, the Swing State Project has been cracking open the field of GOP-held Senate seats up for grabs in 2008, and inviting you to submit your recruitment ideas for each of these races.  For a look back at the previous discussions, see here (AK, AL, AR, GA & ID), here (KS, KY, ME, MN & MS), and here (NC, NE, NH, NM, OK).

Here are our targets for this week.  Links are to the 2008 Race Tracker wiki for inspiration, and incumbents are in parens:

16) Oregon (Gordon Smith)

17) South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)

18) Tennessee (Lamar Alexander)

19) Texas (John Cornyn)

20) Virginia (John Warner)

21) Wyoming (Mike Enzi)

As always, don’t feel limited to submitting the names of traditional politicians.  Businesspeople, community leaders, activists, writers, musicians, athletes or celebrities are all fair game.  I have already seen a number of very creative suggestions in previous weeks.  You never know who’s reading or what kind of traction these ideas could generate.  So have at it!

There are 18 counties that have not reported all their results:
Arlington
Charlottesville
Fairfax
Fairfax city
Glouchester
Harrisonberg
Isle of Wight
Loudon
Martinsville
Newport News
Norfolk
Northumberland
Petersburg
Prince Edward
Prince William
Richmond City
Virginia Beach
Waynesboro

Those counties have reported results from 50%-99% of precincts giving us a reasonable basis on which to project the final vote in each country.  Based on this and the currently reported vote, the final tally would be:
Webb: 1,168,889
Allen: 1,154,361
Webb wins by 14,528 votes

Source: CNN county-by-county vote totals

Mason-Dixon and the Richmond Times-Dispatch have a new poll out today confirming Jim Webb’s recent surge of momentum in the past week, showing Webb up 46-45–the first time that Webb has edged Allen in any Mason-Dixon poll. Take a look at the trend (likely voters, MoE: ±4):

	Webb (D)	Allen (R)	Parker (I)	Unsure
11/1-3/06	46	45	2	7
10/17-19/06	43	47	2	8
9/5-7/06	42	46	N/A	12
7/25-27/06	32	48	N/A	20

Does this give you a little bit of déjà vu? Hmm, I wonder what Mason-Dixon’s numbers from last year’s gubernatorial race looked like (likely voters, MoE: ±4):

	Kaine (D)	Kilgore (R)	Potts (I)	Unsure
11/2-3/05	45	44	4	7
10/18-20/05	42	44	5	9
9/13-15/05	40	41	6	13
7/19-21/05	38	37	9	16

Hmm… a Republican campaign caught dealing with the backlash of scurrilous, ridiculous attacks on their opponent (that is, you know, when they’re not beating people up)? The Democrat receiving a groundswell of support from the grassroots all the way up to former Governors Mark Warner and Doug Wilder? The Democrat surging in the vote-rich “suburban crescent” of Northern Viriginia?

It’s beginning to feel a bit like November 2005 to me. I am feeling it, yes indeed. And now for the requisite caution: but, like David says, nothing should be considered a lock at this point. Let’s out-hussle the Republicans everywhere and seal the deal. Bring it all home to me, people.