Tag: Bob McDonnell

A backlog of polls have built up over the last couple days, none of which are that remarkable. Let’s clear the decks:

• NJ-Gov (pdf): Monmouth finds Chris Christie leading incumbent Jon Corzine 45-37 among likely voters (43-37 among RVs), with independent Chris Daggett pulling in 4%. That looks better than the Quinnipiac poll from Tuesday, but it’s a drop from the last Monmouth in April, where Christie led 39-35 among registered voters. Also troublesome: they ask whether Obama’s upcoming visit and endorsement will have any effect on how to vote, and 70% say it would have no effect.

• NY-Sen-B: Rasmussen polls the Democratic primary in New York’s senate special election for the first time, and finds Carolyn Maloney with a 33-27 edge over Kirsten Gillibrand, although 9% opt for “some other candidate” (presumably Jonathan Tasini, although some might just holding out for someone better). Both have high favorables: Gillibrand is at 49-25, while Maloney is at 44-24. They also looked at the NY-Gov Democratic primary, and found Andrew Cuomo whomping David Paterson, 61-27.

• NC-Sen (pdf): PPP’s latest suggests it’s time for someone in North Carolina to legally change his name to “Generic Democrat.” GOP incumbent Generic Republican Richard Burr leads Generic Democrat only 40-38 (after trailing G.D. 41-38 last month). Turning to actual human candidates, Burr leads former state Sen. Cal Cunningham 40-31 and attorney Kenneth Lewis 42-31. Burr also shows a small uptick in his approval rating, 36-29, maybe the first time this year his “approves” have exceeded the “don’t knows” (at 35%).

• TX-Gov: Rasmussen finds that Gov. Rick Perry’s lead over Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Texas governor’s GOP primary is growing. He holds a 46-36 lead, while he led only 42-38 in May. Hutchison may be having second thoughts about giving up her day job.

• VA-Gov: Finally, Rasmussen polls the Virginia governor’s race, and like the other most recent polls here, Dem nominee Creigh Deeds seems to have come down from his post-primary bump and it’s settled down into a very close equilibrium with a tiny advantage for GOPer Bob McDonnell. McD leads 44-41, while Deeds was up in their previous poll last month, 47-41. Both men are well-liked; McDonnell’s favorables are 50-27 and Deeds’ are 49-35.

• TX-Gov: Holy crap, Kay Bailey Hutchison is running for Governor of Texas! Of course, everyone with a pulse has known this for most of a year, but it’s now official: she’s done exploring the race and formally launched her campaign yesterday. She also found a lot of cash under the couch cushions during all those explorations, as she put together $6.7 million during the first half of the year. Factoring in her $8 million transfer from her Senate account, she’s sitting on about $12 million CoH. Her primary opponent, incumbent Gov. Rick Perry, raised $4.2 million in the year’s first half (a lot, considering he couldn’t raise during the legislative session) and has $9.3 million CoH.

• FL-Sen: Ordinarily, you probably wouldn’t want to spotlight an endorsement from an unlikable jerk with a ridiculous name, but Marco Rubio is trying to rally the nationwide wingnut brigade to his financially faltering campaign ($340K last quarter), so he rolled out an endorsement from ex-House Majority Leader Dick Armey today.

• IL-Sen: Now that he’s done holding his breath and turning blue until that nasty Andy McKenna would go away, Rep. Mark Kirk has announced that he’ll announce that he’ll announce that he’ll announce his candidacy, or something like that, “in one week.” Roll Call also has a look at the consternation that Kirk’s messed-up rollout caused both local and national GOP figures, stepping on their attempts to crow “recruitment success.”

Meanwhile, people are starting to wonder openly when if ever businessman Chris Kennedy is going to pull the trigger on getting into the Dem field. His hesitation is already landing him in legal hot water: a local police officer filed an FEC complaint against Kennedy for allegedly spending more than $5,000 on campaign outlays without actually having a campaign in place.

• NV-Sen: John Ensign (apparently emboldened by fellow C Street dweller Mark Sanford’s seat-of-his-pants survival of his own affair) is proceeding full speed ahead, not just planning not to resign but to run for re-election in 2012. TPM wonders out loud if Harry Reid is one of the Dems who’ve urged Ensign to stay on board.

• PA-Sen: The NRSC finally officially endorsed Pat Toomey today. This comes hot on the heels of news that state Sen. Jane Orie (who was being chatted up by the NRSC last week) has decided against running against Pat Toomey in the GOP senate primary. Rumors abound that Rick Santorum, nursing some sort of grudge against Toomey, was the driving force behind the Orie boomlet. Meanwhile, Arlen Specter today announced a 2Q haul of $1.7 million, narrowly topping both Toomey ($1.6 million) and Joe Sestak ($1 million in his House account).

• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman is sitting on a ton of cash now, having added $15 million of her own money on top of $6.7 million in private contributions, bringing her total stash to more than $25 million. Her GOP primary rival, Insurance Comm. Steve Poizner anted up $5 million of his own money, along with $1.2 million in contributions, during that same period.

• CT-Gov: A strangely quiet fundraising period for Jodi Rell has some wondering if she’s going to run for re-election. She raised $20,000 in the most recent quarter, with $71K CoH, outpaced by potential Democratic challengers SoS Susan Bysiewicz ($141K for the quarter) and Stamford mayor Dan Malloy ($147K).

• OH-Gov: Betcha didn’t know that ex-Rep. John Kasich had an opponent in the GOP gubernatorial primary in Ohio: state Sen. Kevin Coughlin. Well, apparently no one else knew that either, and having gotten nowhere on the fundraising front in the face of party opposition, Coughlin bailed out yesterday.

• VA-Gov: Creigh Deeds beat Bob McDonnell in fundraising in June ($3.4 million for Deeds, $1.8 million for McDonnell), but he had to blow through a lot of that in the primary. McDonnell is sitting on a lot more cash on hand, with almost $5 million compared with Deeds’ $2.7 million.

• CA-11: This is the first I’ve heard of this guy — vintner Brad Goehring — who’s planning to challenge Jerry McNerney in the 11th. He’s not getting off on the right foot, though, with the appearance of 2006 statements where he shrugged off the problem of 40% of his workforce being undocumented immigrants… not likely to help him much with the nativist core of what’s left of the California GOP base.

• CA-32: In case you’d forgotten (and most likely you had; I know I did), the general special election for the race to fill the vacant seat left behind by Labor Sec. Hilda Solis is today. Today’s election is an afterthought, given that the race was basically won in a heavily-contested May primary in this solid Dem district. Someone named “Chu” is guaranteed to win, although in all likelihood it’ll be Democratic Board of Equalization member Judy Chu over Republican Monterey Park city councilor Betty Chu.

• FL-12: The Blue Dogs have already weighed in with their first endorsement of the cycle, endorsing Polk Co. Elections Supervisor Lori Edwards in the open 12th district to replace Rep. Adam Putnam, who’s running for Florida Agricultural Commissioner.

• KY-St. Sen.: Gov. Steve Beshear is seemingly taking a page from Barack Obama, picking off Republican legislators and giving them secure appointive positions instead, opening up their seats for possible Democratic takeove. Sens. Dan Kelly and Charlie Borders were appointed to a judgeship and the Public Service Commission, respectively. Dems are optimistic about retaking both the seats, with state Rep. Robin Webb looking at Borders’ seat in Kentucky’s NE corner, and former state Rep. Jodie Haydon looking at Kelly’s seat in Bourbon territory in the state’s center. This will hopefully put a dent in the GOP’s 21-16-1 edge.

• Census: Census Director Robert Groves was finally confirmed after the Dems used a cloture vote to break the hold on him, leaving him with only eight months to whip the Census into shape. Only 15 GOPers voted against cloture, including Richard Shelby and David Vitter, the ones who’d had the hold on the nomination, and some of the other dead-enders (Brownback, Bunning, Cornyn, Ensign, Sessions, etc…. although, interestingly, Coburn and Kyl voted for cloture). Meanwhile, Michele Bachmann continues her one-woman war on the Census, proposing legislation that would limit the number of question the American Community Survey (the annual supplement, not the 2010 full count) can ask.

• Polltopia: PPP is asking for your input on another state to poll, so let ’em hear it. The finalists are California, Iowa, and Louisiana.

Deeds took in $3.4 million to $1.8M for McDonnell. Even if you take out the $1 million combined from the DGA, SEIU and AFSCME you are still left with $600k extra. Granted, McDonnell has $5 million CoH to $2.7 million for Deeds but if Creigh can keep this up then money is not going to be the problem it was for him in 2005. And remember, Kaine was badly outraised by Kilgore four years ago but was still able to win.

http://hotlineoncall.nationalj…

I have a feeling this race will define the fallout from this November. The results here and in New Jersey won’t mean anything with regard to 2010 really but Dems have to win at least one to stop Republicans crowing and being able to use that to build some momentum.

• WI-Gov: Hot on the heels of changing Ohio to Lean Dem yesterday, today we’re downgrading the Wisconsin gubernatorial race to Lean Dem as well. We aren’t reacting to any one recent event (the only two polls so far have dramatically disparate results, but they average out to a tight race), but realized that we had no business keeping WI-Gov at Likely Dem if OH-Gov is going to be Lean Dem.

• CA-Sen: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina seems to be moving toward running against Barbara Boxer after all, not taking formal steps but rubbing elbows with the right people. Here’s some ill-timed bad PR for her, though: Fiorina has been telling people that she’s now CEO of her own company (Carly Fiorina Enterprises) and her own foundation (Fiorina Foundation), but neither one has been registered with the proper state or federal authorities… which might lead some to question her vaunted business organization skills.

• IL-Sen: The Fix reports that alleged field-clearing heavyweight Rep. Mark Kirk may still face a contested GOP primary in the Senate race; state party chair Andy McKenna, recruited as the GOP’s Plan B, seems to be staying in for now, and the state’s Republican congressional delegation is staying, at least publicly, neutral. The flashpoint may be Kirk’s recent vote in favor of cap-and-trade.

• MO-Sen: In the “did he really just say that file?” Roy Blunt offers up a doozy: in a conservative talk radio interview, he said that maybe it would have been better if the federal government had never created Medicare, Medicaid, or VA health care, because it “distorts the marketplace.” Way to put the senior citizen vote in play there, Roy!

• NV-Sen: Off-the-record GOP consultants say that a John Ensign resignation may be “on the table” and that there are worries that there may still be even more undisclosed payments to the Hamptons floating around. If there are public calls for resignation from the other key GOPers in Nevada — Gov. Jim Gibbons, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, Rep. Dean Heller — it’s time to prepare the fork for sticking (of course, with two of those three in deep scandal of their own, there’s a certain pot/kettle thing going on).

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter made his first aggressive moves against possible primary challenger Rep. Joe Sestak today, calling him a “flagrant hypocrite” for not being a Democrat until 2006. (Sestak was an Independent during his decades of military service, and switched to Dem once he was out of the service.) Hmmm… remind me again which year Arlen Specter became a Democrat? Meanwhile, on the GOP side, the NRSC just can’t help themselves from hiking the Appalachian Trail despite their efforts to fall back in love with Pat Toomey. They’ve been talking behind the scenes with state Sen. Jane Orie about running in the primary (although she’s almost as conservative as Toomey, so it’s not clear what benefit that would provide).

• AK-Gov: Guess who’s saying “thanks but no thanks” to the assistance offered by the divine Sarah Palin: the GOP candidates in the two very-close blue-state gubernatorial races this year, Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell. (On the other hand, Rick Perry, who needs to rally every wingnut he can get his hands on in order to win his primary in Texas, welcomes her.) The Hill also sniffs out a number of other candidates facing possibly tough races who’d like her to stay far, far away, including Reps. Lee Terry, Frank Wolf, Mike Castle, and Pete Hoekstra. (In his efforts to become World’s Most Tone-Deaf Man, Roy Blunt welcomes her help, though.) Finally, check out Peggy Noonan‘s authoritative takedown of Palin today; say what you will about the whole pure evil thing, the woman has a way with words.

• PA-Gov: With a lot of people looking at the Democratic field in the Governor’s race and asking “is that all there is?” a familiar face is considering the race: Montgomery Co. Commissioner (and former Rep. and 2004 Senate candidate) Joe Hoeffel. In his favor, he’d be the only elected official from the Philly area in the race (Tom Knox is from Philly, but has never held office).

• IL-10: With Rep. Mark Kirk kindly leaving an open seat for us, both the Daily Herald and Roll Call take a look at the developing fields in this race. On the Dem side, the leading contenders are state Sens. Michael Bond (already in the race) and Susan Garrett. Dan Seals, who lost in 2006 and 2008 to Kirk, is also considering a third try. The only GOPer in the race is Patricia Bird, but businessman Dick Green and state Rep. Elizabeth Coulson are likely contestants.

• NY-23: Don’t count out state Sen. Darrel Aubertine on becoming the Democratic candidate in NY-23, despite the ongoing craziness in the New York state Senate. Although the July 17 filing deadline is coming up and he hasn’t made any noise about it, Aubertine is still considering it and will have the requisite family sit-down about it once he has the time (which maybe he’ll have, now that the Senate is back to “normal”).

• VA-05: Rep. Tom Perriello has become the focus in the tug-of-war over cap-and-trade. A week after the NRCC made him the sole target of a TV attack ad for voting in favor, the League of Conservation Voters is running thank-you ads in his central Virginia district.

• Mayors: Louisiana Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu has options, but he ruled out a third run at New Orleans mayor, for which he’d been considered front-runner. A run for Governor in 2011 (or maybe not until the open seat in 2015) now seems likelier. This leaves city councilor Arnie Fielkow in the driver’s seat for the next mayoral election.

• Caucuses: This seems like an odd time for this to happen, in the middle of the fight over health care reform: the Congressional Progessive Caucus canned its executive director, Bill Goold, without much explanation.

Public Policy Polling (6/30-7/2, likely voters):

Creigh Deeds (D): 43

Bob McDonnell (R): 49

(MoE: ±4.0%)

This is PPP’s first post-primary poll, and also the first poll of the race taken after the “bounce period” that had Deeds surging ahead in R2K and Rasmussen‘s most recent sampling. However, this is the first time PPP has dipped its toes into the general election pool, so we have no trend lines to work with here.

Over at PPP, Tom Jensen has more:

Despite trailing, there are several bright spots for Deeds in the numbers. He currently has just a 68-16 lead among African Americans. Democrats frequently under poll with that demographic this far out from an election but usually end up getting 85% or more of that vote come November. There are a lot more undecided Democrats than Republicans, which makes those voters more inclined to end up in the Deeds camp. Deeds’ supporters are also a little more committed than McDonnell’s, with 90% of them saying they will definitely vote for him while just 82% say that for McDonnell.

There are some signs of concern too though. We’re detecting little interest in the race right now from black voters or young voters, both groups that were overwhelmingly supportive of Barack Obama and key to his success in the state last year. We currently project black turnout at 16% of the electorate, down from 20% last year, and voters under 30 at 8%, down from 21% last year. Getting those groups excited about his candidacy and out to the polls will be key to Deeds’ prospects.

The race is in a very similar position to 2005. The poll released that year closest to today’s date of July 7th showed Jerry Kilgore with a 6 point lead identical to the one we found last week. The question now is whether McDonnell can hold onto this lead better than Kilgore did, or if Deeds will be able to replicate Tim Kaine’s success in peaking at just the right time. He certainly did that in the primary.

PPP has also been good enough to give us data on the important downballot statewide races. In the Lt. Governor’s race, incumbent Republican Bill Bolling leads Democrat Jody Wagner by 46-40, and for the open-seat AG race, GOP goon Ken Cuccinelli leads Democrat Steve Shannon by 45-38.

RaceTracker: VA-Gov

Hard to believe we’re seeing any Republican anywhere pining for the good ol’ Bush days, but Bob McDonnell went there:

Many of you probably remember after 9/11 we did something to stimulate the economy then, too. You know what we did? We cut taxes. President Bush put in a ten-year tax-cut on everything from the death tax to capital gains tax, and it was followed by an unprecedented period of economic recovery and economic growth. In fact, it almost overheated the economy through about 2006. So, I think that’s the way you stimulate business. And that’s the kind of governor that I’m going to be – to reduce those impediments to entrepreneurship, to let small businesses grow and thrive and create some opportunity.

Maybe tax cuts have tested well in McDonnell’s internal polling. But I refuse to believe that Bush nostalgia sells well to anyone but the most hardcore bitter-enders.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (6/15-17, likely voters, 6/1-3 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 44 (34)

Bob McDonnell (R): 45 (46)

Undecided: 11 (20)

(MoE: ±4%)

This is the second poll we’ve seen of the race since the Democratic primary concluded, and it’s more good news for Deeds (Rasmussen had Deeds up by 47-41 the day after the primary). While McDonnell will be a pretty tough candidate to beat, it’s worth repeating that, four years ago, Tim Kaine didn’t start off his race in nearly as good a position. Kaine lagged behind Republican Jerry Kilgore by mid-single digits in almost every poll prior to October before posting a beautiful finish. McDonnell will be a less embarrassing candidate strictly in terms of messaging and presentation for the GOP than Kilgore was in 2005, but the state has also become more Democratic since then. This will be a fun race to watch.

RaceTracker: VA-Gov

{First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate Guru.}

While 2010 will be chock-full of exciting races at all levels of government.  In 2009, though, there will be two marquee races across the country: the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey.  Republicans are favored in both races, but both races should come down to the wire, and Democrats can hold both seats – with your help.

In Virginia, Democratic State Senator Creigh Deeds won an impressive, come-from-behind victory for the nomination this past Tuesday, demonstrating a strong ground game.  The Republican nominee will be far-right-winger Bob McDonnell.  The best description for McDonnell’s brand of Republicanism is that he is a Pat Robertson disciple.  You can learn more about McDonnell at TheRealBobMcDonnell.com.  Deeds and McDonnell have tangled before, in the 2005 Virginia Attorney General race, where McDonnell barely edged Deeds by 323 votes (yes, just 323 votes – that’s not a typo with zeroes missing) out of over 1.94 million votes counted.  This race will be exceptionally close, so every single dollar contributed and every single hour spent volunteering will make a real difference.  A bit of good news is that the first poll taken after Tuesday’s primary, by Rasmussen Reports, shows Deeds with a 47-41 lead over McDonnell, but this could just be due to a primary bump.  Rasmussen’s last poll showed McDonnell leading Deeds 45-30.  Your support will help Deeds sustain his new lead.

In New Jersey, Democratic incumbent Governor Jon Corzine will square off against Republican former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie.  Christie is very much at home in the Republican Culture of Corruption.  Republican Christie has faced scandals involving no-bid contracts, abuse of the state pension system, pay-to-play, and even allegedly cutting a deal to get his younger brother’s sentence reduced after being implicated for fraudulent trading practices on Wall Street.  Despite Christie’s mountain of scandal, New Jersey’s lagging economy has hurt Governor Corzine’s poll numbers.  Recent polling gives Christie a 7 to 13 point lead over Corzine.  Research 2000, May 25-27: Christie 46, Corzine 39; Rasmussen Reports, June 4: Christie 51, Corzine 38; and, Quinnipiac, June 10: Christie 50, Corzine 40.  In other words, Christie has an edge, but the fundamentals of the race moving forward favor Governor Corzine.  As the economy gradually picks up over the coming months and voters learn more about Christie’s corrupt background, New Jersey’s blue state status will shine through and Governor Corzine should tighten the race back up.  Your support will help Governor Corzine tighten the race up even faster.

Below are the links to how you can connect with the gubernatorial campaigns (and – please – contribute anything you can to these campaigns, and spread the word!).  Republicans are expecting (and expected) to win both of these races.  However, after being upset in the NY-20 special U.S. House election and losing a U.S. Senator to a Party switch, the GOP is reeling.  Losing either (or both!) VA-Gov or/and NJ-Gov would be a major body blow and simply crush Republicans heading into the 2010 calendar year.  If Democrats across the country are able to support these Democratic campaigns, we can flush the conventional wisdom down the toilet and deliver two more embarrassments to the Rush-Newt-Cheney Republican Party and two more losses to the Michael Steele RNC.

Creigh Deeds for Governor of Virginia	Deeds Website	Deeds Facebook	Deeds Twitter	Deeds YouTube	Deeds Blog	Deeds CONTRIBUTE
Jon Corzine for Governor of New Jersey	Corzine Website	Corzine Facebook	Corzine Twitter	Corzine YouTube	Corzine Blog	Corzine CONTRIBUTE

Rasmussen (6/10, likely voters, 4/15 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 47 (30)

Bob McDonnell (R): 41 (45)

Some other candidate: 2 (5)

Not sure: 10 (20)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

That was fast! Hot off his surprisingly strong victory in Tuesday’s Democratic primary, state Senator Creigh Deeds seems to have gotten quite a post-primary bounce, pulling into a 6-point lead against AG Bob McDonnell. This is the first poll I can find where Deeds led McDonnell in a head-to-head matchup (although if you go back to December, Rasmussen found them tied at 39 apiece), and a huge improvement from the 45-30 gap in April… not coincidentally at a time in the primary when Deeds seemed to be lagging, tortoise-like, and Terry McAuliffe was sprinting ahead, hare-like.

The question is how long this will last. Obviously, there’s a lot of media visibility for Deeds right now and good buzz as well (as seen in his 59/27 favorables), thanks to his dominant statewide performance and also thanks to T-Mac’s quick and effusive endorsement. This may settle back into a tied race during the summer doldrums… or, given that Deeds seems to have already made strong inroads among NoVa voters even while doing what he was expected to do (put the rural parts of the state into play), maybe this will be the new normal. (Discussion already underway in DCCyclone‘s diary, which also contains a little more information about the crosstabs.)

I thought even before the primary that a Deeds win would get us a nice post-primary bump in general election trial heat polling, and that bump is happening a little faster than I imagined!  More below the jump.

Rasmussen has Deeds up 47-41 on the strength of Democratic unity.  McDonnell has the edge among independents, but only with a 43-36 plurality as but 16% of them are undecided.  Only 4% of Dems are undecided with Deeds picking up 89%, and Repugs have 11% undecided with 9% going to Deeds.

Another key demographic is that Deeds trails 49-36 among white voters with 12% undecided and 3% saying they’ll vote for “some other candidate,” although almost all of that 3% will end up choosing between the 2 so that the true undecided whites are 15%.  In Virginia about 40% of the white vote means a Democratic victory in a Governor’s race, so Deeds sitting at 36% with another 15% still persuadable puts him in a great position for victory.

Yes, yes, it’s early, and anything can happen, so this poll isn’t to be relied on too strongly……I’m a campaigns junkie and I know all that.

But the fact is this poll does mean something, that this race is winnable, and McDonnell no longer can be called “the frontrunner” as he was legitimately called in the pre-primary stretch.

It’s a toss-up at worst for us.

I voted for Deeds in the primary thinking he was the only one of the 3 who could beat McDonnell, and today that seems more true than ever.

Creigh’s top responsibilities for the next few weeks need to be fundraising and outreach to minority voters, especially blacks but also Hispanics and Asians.  I hope he raises the cash he needs this time, as he failed to do 4 years ago vs. McDonnell in the A.G. race.