Tag: ND-Sen

Yet another blast of polls from America’s most annoyingly prolific pollster.

LA-Sen (2/10, likely voters, 1/14 in parens):

Charlie Melancon (D): 33 (35)

David Vitter (R-inc): 57 (53)

Other: 3 (4)

Undecided: 7 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MI-Gov (2/9, likely voters):

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 29

Mike Bouchard (R): 42

Other: 8

Undecided: 20

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 28

Peter Hoekstra (R): 44

Other: 8

Undecided: 20

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 30

Mike Cox (R): 45

Other: 8

Undecided: 18

Andy Dillon (D): 32

Mike Bouchard (R): 40

Other: 10

Undecided: 18

Andy Dillon (D): 34

Peter Hoekstra (R): 41

Other: 10

Undecided: 15

Andy Dillon (D): 36

Mike Cox (R): 35

Other: 11

Undecided: 17

Virg Bernero (D): 31

Mike Bouchard (R): 40

Other: 9

Undecided: 20

Virg Bernero (D): 30

Peter Hoekstra (R): 43

Other: 7

Undecided: 19

Virg Bernero (D): 34

Mike Cox (R): 40

Other: 9

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MO-Sen (2/10, likely voters, 1/19 in parens):

Robin Carnahan (D): 42 (43)

Roy Blunt (R): 49 (49)

Some other: 3 (3)

Not sure: 6 (5)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-Sen (2/9-10, likely voters):

Tracy Potter (D): 17

John Hoeven (R): 71

Other: 4

Undecided: 8

Heidi Heitkamp (D): 29

John Hoeven (R): 65

Other: 1

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-AL (2/9-10, likely voters):

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 40

Rick Berg (R): 46

Other: 3

Undecided: 11

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 45

Kevin Cramer (R): 44

Other: 3

Undecided: 7

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 47

Paul Schaffner (R): 38

Other: 5

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NH-Sen (2/10, likely voters, 1/12 in parens):

Paul Hodes (D): 39 (40)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 46 (49)

Other: 3 (3)

Not Sure: 13 (8)

Paul Hodes (D): 44 (45)

Ovide Lamontagne (R): 38 (38)

Other: 4 (6)

Not Sure: 13 (11)

Paul Hodes (D): 41 (43)

Bill Binnie (R): 42 (37)

Other: 3 (5)

Not Sure: 13 (15)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Gov (2/8, likely voters):

Jack Wagner (D): 28

Tom Corbett (R): 49

Other: 5

Undecided: 17

Joe Hoeffel (D): 29

Tom Corbett (R): 51

Other: 5

Undecided: 15

Dan Onorato (D): 26

Tom Corbett (R): 52

Other: 5

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Sen (2/8, likely voters, 1/18 in parens):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 38 (40)

Pat Toomey (R): 47 (49)

Other: 5 (4)

Undecided: 10 (8)

Joe Sestak (D): 35 (35)

Pat Toomey (R): 43 (43)

Some other: 7 (6)

Not sure: 15 (16)

(MoE: ±3%)

• Election Results: With 99.1% of precincts reporting (97 remain, apparently mostly in Cook County), both sides of the governor’s race remain too close to call. Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn has declared victory, sitting on a 7,000 vote lead (50.4%-49.6%) and with the remaining precincts in Cook County likely to go his way, although Dan Hynes hasn’t conceded yet. On the GOP side, we’re looking most likely at a recount, as state Sen. Bill Brady leads fellow state Sen. Kirk Dillard currently by a 751-vote margin (20.3%-20.2%), as they both squeaked past the two presumed frontrunners, former state party chair Andy McKenna and former AG Jim Ryan. The fact that the remaining votes are from Cook County, however, may be poised to help the moderate suburbs-based Dillard, though, rather than the conservative downstate Brady, so this race seems likely to get even closer (Nate Silver actually projects a one-vote victory for Brady based on broader Cook County trends). Recount procedures make it sound like a protracted process – an initial vote tally won’t happen until March 5, and then the process “could take months to complete” – giving Quinn a big headstart on whoever the GOP victor turns out to be.

As expected, Alexi Giannoulias and Mark Kirk are the Senate nominees, although both won their races with somewhat underwhelming percentages (39% for Giannoulias, and 57% for Kirk, who could have been in more trouble had the teabagging right coalesced behind one person in particular). Conservatives did triumph over establishment candidates in several GOP House primaries, though, as Bob Dold! beat state Rep. Beth Coulson in the 10th, and state Sen. Randy Hultgren beat Ethan Hastert in the 14th.

In Florida, as expected, state Sen. Ted Deutch easily won the special election primary to succeed Rep. Robert Wexler, beating former Broward Co. Commissioner Ben Graber 86-15. It looks like he’ll face Republican Ed Lynch (the 2008 nominee), who defeated Joe Budd by only 46 votes (but with only 8,000 total GOP votes, that’s outside the margin for an automatic recount). And here’s a surprise out of Kentucky: Democrats picked up a state House seat in the dark-red HD 24, which was recently vacated when Republican Jimmy Higdon got promoted to the state Senate in another special election. Terry Mills won, 54-46, based on an overwhelming edge (89-11) on his home turf of Marion County, reminding us that, at the end of the day, all politics is local.

Finally, last night was caucus and straw poll night in Minnesota. Only 80% of precincts have reported yet – I guess they go to bed early in Minnesota – but the straw poll in the Democratic governor’s race points to only a lot of chaos at this point. Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak led with 21.8%, followed closely by state House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher at 20.2%. However, “uncommitted” is a solid 3rd at 15%, there are five other candidates who managed to break 5% (John Marty, Tom Rukavina, Paul Thissen, Matt Entenza, and Tom Bakk), and ex-Sen. Mark Dayton doesn’t even seem to be bothering with the whole process, planning on going straight to the primary, so there’s not much clarity on how the field will shake out. The GOP field seems much more clear-cut, where former state House minority leader Marty Seifert beat state Rep. Tom Emmer 50-39, with the rest of the field in the low single digits.

• AZ-Sen: With the imminent entry of ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth into the Republican primary against John McCain, we’re already looking at dueling internal polls. McCain offers up a poll from POS, giving him a 59-30 lead over Hayworth. Hayworth has his own poll from McLaughlin, which, not surprisingly, shows him much closer, trailing 49-33.

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek, NASCAR dad? Meek plans to call attention to his campaign by shelling out to be the lead sponsor of Mike Wallace’s car in an upcoming race at Daytona.

• IN-Sen: With the surprising announcement by ex-Sen. Dan Coats last night that he’s interested in a comeback and would start seeking the signatures to qualify for the Indiana GOP nod, the oppo pretty much writes itself. For starters, Coats can’t even sign his own petition – he’s been a registered voter in Virginia for more than a decade, not Indiana. And what’s he been doing for much of that time? Lobbying… for King & Spalding, on behalf of nice people like the Carlyle Group and Bank of America. The Plum Line also points to Coats accusing Bill Clinton of “wagging the dog” when he started going after al-Qaeda in 1998, allegedly to distract the press from his peccadilloes… and we all know how that turned out.

• ND-Sen: Democrats have, well, somebody ready to go if ex-AG Heidi Heitkamp doesn’t get into the Senate race to replace retiring Byron Dorgan. State Sen. Tracy Potter, who represents Bismarck, will be announcing his candidacy on Friday. Other potential candidates seem to be holding back, waiting to see what Heitkamp does; she’s been strangely silent since initially expressing interest in the seat last month.

• NY-Sen-B: Quinnipiac’s first poll of the New York Senate race after the Harold Ford Jr. boomlet began finds, well, pretty much what everyone else has found: Kirsten Gillibrand beats him by a wide margin but doesn’t break 50%. Gillibrand beats 36-18, with Jonathan Tasini at 4. Quinnipiac also tests general election matchups against Republican port commissioner Bruce Blakeman (they don’t even bother testing ex-Gov. George Pataki, who doesn’t seem to be making any moves to get into the race). Gillibrand beats Blakeman 44-27, and Ford beats him 35-26. Gillibrand is slowly gaining some more name rec, up to a 42/28 approval. Blakeman may not have the GOP primary to himself, though, as a strange blast from the past is re-emerging to say he’s interested in the race: ex-Rep. Joseph DioGuardi. In case the name doesn’t ring a bell, DioGuardi served in the House representing Westchester County from 1984 to 1988, when he was defeated by Nita Lowey.

• NY-Gov: The same Quinnipiac sample looks at the governor’s race, finding huge approval gaps between Andrew Cuomo (54/16) and David Paterson (34/49). Cuomo wins the Democratic primary 55-23. Cuomo beats Rick Lazio 57-25, while Lazio manages to get past Paterson 40-39. There’s also one other bit of good news for Cuomo (who’s seemed gunshy about taking on Paterson, perhaps out of bad memories of his race against Carl McCall). The poll asked if his candidacy would be “racially divisive,” and respondents answered “no” by an 80-14 margin, including 73-22 among African-Americans. Marist (pdf) also just released the gubernatorial half of its recent Senate poll, finding generally similar numbers. Cuomo wins the primary 70-23. Cuomo beats Lazio 64-27, while Lazio edges Paterson 46-43.

• TN-Gov: Add one more candidate running for higher office who’s publicly copped to being birther-curious: Lt. Gov. (and GOP gubernatorial candidate) Ron Ramsey. Not having made much of an impression in terms of polling (where Rep. Zach Wamp has an edge) or fundraising (where Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam is cleaning up), this seems like the most attention Ramsey has gotten so far.

• TX-Gov: Here’s more evidence that the Texas GOP gubernatorial primary may be headed for a runoff: the new Rasmussen poll of the primary doesn’t have anyone coming even close to 50%. Incumbent Rick Perry leads at 44, with Kay Bailey Hutchison lagging at 29, and Paulist insurgent Debra Medina all the way up to 14 on the strength of some buzz coming out of her debate performances. KBH may be counting on a runoff as her only way left to salvage this race, but somehow it seems like, in a runoff, Medina votes are a lot likely to gravitate toward the secession-invoking Perry rather than consummate DC insider Hutchison. In the general, all three defeat Democratic ex-Houston mayor Bill White, although, as one would expect, KBH puts up the biggest margin: 49-36. Perry wins 48-39, while Medina wins by only 41-38.

• AR-02: One of the non-Tim Griffin candidates in the Republican field, David Meeks, dropped out of the race today, probably realizing he was in over his head with the kind of attention open seat races get. One other candidate, restaurant owner Scott Wallace remains, and he may well carry the teabagger flag against Beltway creature Griffin. Realizing the best way to win this is by painting Griffin as insider, the DCCC is turning their attention to Griffin’s past as GOP behind-the-scenes fixer, calling attention to his efforts at voter suppression. Over in the diaries, ARDem takes a look at the developing Dem field, which currently contains state House speaker Robbie Wills, liberal state Sen. Joyce Elliott, and retiring Vic Snyder’s chief of staff, David Boling. It won’t contain, however, Little Rock mayor Mike Stodola, or Public Service Commissioner Paul Suskie, who had seemed to be laying the groundwork for a run.

• CA-12, CA-AG: False alarm: Rep. Jackie Speier is staying put in the 12th District, where’s she been in place for only a couple years. Rumors that she was about to move over to the state AG’s race had many of the state legislators on the Peninsula angling to replace her.

• GA-04: In the wake of an internal from Rep. Hank Johnson showing him crushing his three opponents in the Dem primary in this solidly-blue district in Atlanta’s suburbs, one of those opponents got out of the way: DeKalb Co. Commissioner Lee May. May is an ally of former DeKalb Co. CEO Vernon Jones, so it’s possible that he’s getting out of the way primarily so that Jones can get a bigger share of the non-Johnson vote.

• MA-10: With the general sense that this is the most vulnerable district in Massachusetts (as seen with its votes in the Senate special election last month), Republicans are taking more of an interest in challenging Rep. William Delahunt in this usually-ignored seat. Former state treasurer Joe Malone is probably the biggest name to express interest, but at least one other credible contender, state Rep. Jeffrey Perry, is already announcing his candidacy. State Sen. Robert Hedlund is also expressing some interest.

• NJ-07: One big hole in the Dems’ recruitment schedule has been the 7th, narrowly won by freshman GOP Rep. Leonard Lance in 2008. They’ve managed to fill the gap with Ed Potosnak, who’s elevated slightly above Some Dude status by the full Rolodex he brings with him after working for a number of years as a Hill staffer for Rep. Mike Honda.

• PA-11: Lackawanna Co. Commissioner Corey O’Brien has a compelling argument for why he should win the primary in the 11th: he says Rep. Paul Kanjorski has “zero” chance of defeating Republican Lou Barletta in their third face-off, citing Kanjorski’s low approval ratings. O’Brien has been fundraising well ($180K last quarter, not far from Kanjo’s $237K) and recently hit the airwaves with a small cable buy for his first TV spot.

• CA-LG: Is San Francisco mayor (and gubernatorial race dropout) Gavin Newsom actually thinking about a run for the dead-end job that is California’s #2? Officially he’s not interested, but he hasn’t said no, and a new public poll from Tulchin gives him a big lead in a hypothetical LG primary, with Newsom at 33 against the two declared candidates: Los Angeles city councilor Janice Hahn at 17 and state Sen. Dean Florez at 15. Meanwhile, the state Senate this week takes up the issue of filling the current vacancy in the LG’s chair (vacated by now-Rep. John Garamendi); there’s actually talk of blocking Ahnold appointee state Sen. Abel Maldonado, despite that getting the moderate Republican Maldonado out of his seat would open up his Dem-leaning district for a takeover and help push the Dem edge in the Senate toward the magic 2/3s mark.

• CT-AG: The story of Susan Bysiewicz just gets stranger and stranger; she decided that rather than run for governor, she’d prefer to run for AG, but now the job’s current occupant, Richard Blumenthal, says that possibly she can’t. An AG opinion interprets state law requiring ten years of legal practice as unclear and urges a declaratory ruling on Bysiewicz’s case from a court. Bysiewicz, for her part, said she won’t seek the declaratory ruling and is simply plowing ahead with her AG campaign, although it’s possible one of the other candidates in the race might force the issue in the courts.

• Polltopia: The skepticism toward those SurveyUSA polls commissioned by Firedoglake continues to grow, this time from political science professor and frequent Pollster.com contributor Alan Abramowitz. His gravest concerns are with the leading questions in the issues portions of the poll on health care reform, but he also points to serious problems with the samples’ compositions that we were quick to flag. He observes that the samples deeply underrepresent younger votes, and that the youth subsets are so small that there’s no good way to “weight up” younger voters to a more proportionate level.

• AR-Sen: Despite the seemingly imminent entry of Rep. John Boozman into the GOP field in the Arkansas Senate race, soon-to-be-former-frontrunner state Sen. Gilbert Baker says he’s staying in the race. The alternative would be to run for Baker, who represents Little Rock suburbs, to run for the open seat in AR-02 instead – but there he’d face a tough primary against Beltway GOP favorite Tim Griffin, who’s already established a solid fundraising foothold. (Some of the seven dwarves in the GOP field, who seem concentrated in the state’s right-leaning northwest, may be interested in switching to Boozman’s open seat in AR-03, though.) And unbelievably, yet another Republican is interested in getting in the Senate race: former NFL player Jim Lindsey is readying for a bid. Lindsey is a real estate developer and former University of Arkansas trustee.

• AZ-Sen: Sarah Palin is still dancin’ with the one who brung her. She announced yesterday that she’ll appear on behalf of John McCain, who plucked her from near-obscurity and is now needs a favor of his own as he’s facing a primary challenge from the right from ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth. Needless to say, this provoked a lot of disappointment from her supporters among the teabagging set, who would prefer to see her stab McCain in the back and then field dress him.

• CO-Sen: With right-wingers filled with antipathy toward establishment choice ex-Lt. Gov. Jane Norton, there’s been a lot of casting about for an alternative. Weld County DA Ken Buck seems more and more like he’ll be that guy, as he’s been making common cause with the Paulists, who are now planning to pay for a statewide advertising campaign on Buck’s behalf. Meanwhile, on the Dem side, primary challenger Andrew Romanoff is trying to energize his sleepy campaign with a big hire – pollster Celinda Lake, whose previously sterling reputation got driven off a cliff with her handling of the Martha Coakley campaign.

• CT-Sen: There’s not much left to see for the 2010 race, but everyone’s thinking ahead to 2012, with the new rumor afoot that – with the Senate Kennedy-free for the first time in more than half a century – Ted Kennedy Jr. may run against Joe Lieberman in 2012. Lieberman himself is up to his usual asshattery, speculating out loud that he could conceive of becoming a Republican, and also saying that he might support Linda McMahon in the 2010 race… seeing as how Richard Blumenthal (tepidly) supported Lamont in the 2006 general while McMahon supported Lieberman. Apparently Lieberman learned his politics from watching the Godfather: it’s not business. Just personal. (Lieberman also seems to be a believer in leaving the cannoli, and taking the guns.)

• FL-Sen: In the wake of new polling showing him falling behind Marco Rubio in the GOP Senate primary, the questions are getting louder about whether Charlie Crist might consider running as an independent instead. He said no to that idea… but people are noticing he didn’t rule out switching parties altogether. With Crist appearing side-by-side with Barack Obama today in Florida (something he wouldn’t consider doing if he saw any hope in trying to compete with Rubio – who just got the endorsement of ur-conservative Steve Forbes — on conservative bona fides alone), could that actually be a consideration? If so, he’d need to switch parties by April 30.

• MA-Sen: There are a couple more retrospectives worth reading on Massachusetts, as people try to make sense of the mixed messages sent by exit polls (with one particularly intriguing tidbit: 52% of Scott Brown voters approved of Ted Kennedy’s performance). Mark Blumenthal also looks at the shift in polling over the last few weeks, wondering again about the differing results gotten by live interviewers vs. robocallers, while also pointing to questions of how much pollsters’ views of a race can actually change the overall momentum of the race (fundraising and perception-wise) and thus become a self-fulfilling prophecy. And get ready for the teabaggers’ week-long love affair to end very soon: Scott Brown (who apparently has some self-preservation instincts) just served notice on the GOP that he won’t always vote with them.

• ND-Sen: This isn’t going to make the teabaggers any happier: Gov. John Hoeven, now running for the Senate, joined the Democratic Party in 1996 (at a time when he was head of North Dakota’s state-owned bank), ditching them in 2000 for his gubernatorial run. With Hoeven already on their naughty list for his insufficiently anti-government stances, now he’s just going to get more wrath.

• NH-Sen: Former AG Kelly Ayotte is wielding an internal poll by the Tarrance Group that gives her a big edge in the GOP primary against her challengers. She leads Ovide Lamontagne, coming at her from the right, 43-11. Random rich guys Bill Binnie and Jim Bender clock in at 5 and 3 apiece. No general election numbers were released.

• NV-Sen: One more disastrous poll for Harry Reid, which came out from Research 2000 a few days ago. This poll closely echoed one from PPP a few weeks ago that tested alternative Democrats, and finds that only Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman beats the Republicans (while Rep. Shelly Berkley and SoS Ross Miller don’t fare much better than Reid). Unfortunately, this was all rendered moot a few days ago by Goodman’s announcement that he wasn’t going to run for either Governor or Senator. Reid loses 52-41 to Danny Tarkanian and 51-42 to Sue Lowden. Berkley loses 46-40 to Tarkanian and 45-40 to Lowden, while Miller loses 44-36 to Tarkanian and 43-37 to Lowden. Goodman beats Tarkanian 44-41 and Lowden 44-40. Rep. Dina Titus, facing a tough re-election of her own, doesn’t seem to think much of Reid’s chances anymore: she publicly said “Reid is done; he’s going to lose.”

• NY-Sen-B: One other Research 2000 poll to talk about: they looked at the Democratic primary in New York, and find about what everyone else has found. Kirsten Gillibrand leads ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. by a 41-27 margin (with 3 for Jonathan Tasini), looking solid but still with a ton of undecideds. This also exists merely at the level of rumor, but with the potential presence of Ford scrambling things for the ever-so-briefly-thought-to-be-safe Gillibrand, sources say that Democratic Rep. Steve Israel (who got dissuaded from a primary challenge) and Republican ex-Gov. George Pataki (who hasn’t sounded interested until now) are both giving the race a little more consideration.

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): Franklin & Marshall’s previous polls in Pennsylvania have tended to have unusually high undecideds, suggesting that they don’t do any pushing of leaners at all – but this may have reached an all-time high with their new poll. Most notably, they find Allegeheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato completely dominating the Democratic gubernatorial primary… at 10% (more than doubling up on Jack Wagner, Joe Hoeffel, and Chris Doherty, all at 4)! They also find similarly low numbers in the Senate race, where Republican ex-Rep. Pat Toomey leads incumbent Dem Arlen Specter 45-31 and Rep. Joe Sestak 41-19 (?!?), and where Specter beats Sestak in the primary 30-13. (They didn’t do a general election poll in the Governor’s race, but find Republican AG Tom Corbett leading his remaining rival, state Rep. Sam Rohrer, 23-5 in the primary.)

• UT-Sen: The Mason-Dixon poll that gave us some (not so good) gubernatorial results also threw in some vague questions about the Senate race too. Incumbent Bob Bennett leads a Generic R in the primary, 46-27, and a Generic D 53-26 in the general. Nevertheless, Bennett drew yet another primary opponent, albeit someone seemingly of the Some Dude variety: local businessman Christopher Stout.

• WI-Sen: Wherever there’s a vacillating Republican needing convincing to get into a Senate race, there’s Rasmussen. (Whaddya wanna bet they have a Patty Murray/Dave Reichert poll in the field right now?) Contrary to PPP’s view of the race, Rasmussen finds ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson leading incumbent Dem Russ Feingold, 47-43. They find Feingold with a perplexingly low 47/48 approval.

• CT-Gov: Is ex-Rep. Chris Shays looking to get into the Governor’s race? Suddenly, it sounds like he’s at least thinking about it, saying he’d like to do it but not sure if it’s feasible. He’s currently in Washington as head of the Wartime Contracting Commission, meaning he’d need to re-establish his Connecticut residency, but given his long-time popularity in his district (which eventually got too blue for him to hold) he might have a leg up on the so-so GOPers already in the field.

• FL-Gov: Quinnipiac released the gubernatorial half of its Florida poll yesterday, finding that Republican AG Bill McCollum has a somewhat bigger lead on Democratic CFO Alex Sink, 41-31 (McCollum led 36-32 in October). Sink leads state Sen. Paula Dockery 35-29, but considering that McCollum leads Dockery 44-6 in the GOP primary, that configuration doesn’t seem likely.

• MI-Gov: Two guys who had been unlikely candidates for the Democratic nomination for Governor both announced they wouldn’t run. Rep. Bart Stupak is the big name to say “no,” which is good as far as the DCCC is concerned, as he’s needed to hold down the fort in his R+3 district. The other is Detroit Pistons head of basketball operations Joe Dumars, who probably realized he’d get pretty banged up out there without Bill Laimbeer to run interference for him. One other interesting rumor of who might run, though, is ex-Rep. Joe Schwarz, the GOP moderate who got bounced out in a 2006 Club for Growth-fueled primary by Tim Walberg. And get this… he’s talking about running as an independent. Could he actually peel off enough center-right votes for the Dems to salvage this race?

• NY-Gov: Research 2000’s New York poll also looked at the Democratic gubernatorial primary, finding AG Andrew Cuomo defeating incumbent David Paterson, 63-19. Paterson is laboring under 34/54 approvals. The GOP primary to see who gets flattened by Cuomo is looking pretty uneventful: Erie Co. Exec Chris Collins, who continued to express vague interest despite having gaffed his way out of contention several months ago, finally pulled the plug on his exploratory committee. That leaves ex-Rep. Rick Lazio as the only major GOPer in the race, to few people’s enthusiasm.

• TX-Gov: Looks like Gov. Rick Perry isn’t much of a fan of the librul media, or at least he realizes that his key demographics aren’t really the newspaper-reading types. He’s decided not to sit for editorial board interviews prior to their pre-primary endorsements.  

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (1/11-13, likely voters, no trendlines):

Heidi Heitkamp (D): 34

John Hoeven (R): 55

Undecided: 11

Ed Schultz (D): 32

John Hoeven (R): 56

Undecided: 12

Jasper Schneider (D): 32

John Hoeven (R): 56

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4%)

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 46

Kevin Cramer (R): 24

Undecided: 30

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 47

Duane Sand (R): 22

Undecided: 31

(MoE: ±4%)

Republican Gov. John Hoeven seems to have an even clearer path to the Senate than he did against Byron Dorgan, now that it’s an open seat. He posts 20-point-plus leads against all of his opposition, including the likeliest Democrat to get the nod: former AG and 2000 gubernatorial candidate Heidi Heitkamp. We’re looking at a strongly Republican likely electorate here (with Barack Obama at 41/54 approval, and the Republican Party faring much better as a party than the Democrats (although still in crappy position, too): 39/53 for the GOP vs. 25/61 for the Dems). That means that performance is pretty much equal for all Dems, whether they’re well-known (Ed Schultz) or up-and-coming but unknown (North Dakota Rural Development Director Jasper Schneider). With that in mind, Swing State Project is moving this race to “Likely Republican.”

Hoeven may still be in for a bumpy ride, though, thanks to the same thing facing fellow level-headed midwestern Governor (and ‘stache wearer) Terry Branstad: bubbling-over anger on the teabagging right and mistrust of his establishment, insufficiently tax-averse ways. While the Tea Partiers don’t seem to have a particular primary opponent in mind, they’re adamant that Hoeven won’t be getting a free pass through the primary.

Democratic at-large Rep. Earl Pomeroy seems to have had the right idea in staying where he is, rather than going for the promotion. He’s looking fairly secure against the GOP opposition (although below the symbolic 50% mark), leading Public Service Commissioner Kevin Cramer (a statewide official, but one who’s lost twice to Pomeroy previously, and just announced today that he’s going back for a third try) and his 2008 opponent (and current Senate candidate, although he might want to drop down to get out of Hoeven’s way) Duane Sand by similar 20-point-plus margins. Insurance salesman Paul Schaffner is also in the GOP primary, and state Rep. Rick Berg and Fargo city commissioner Dave Piepkorn are also weighing the race.

RaceTracker Wiki: ND-Sen | ND-AL

• Redistricting Contest: A reminder – if you haven’t sent in your .DRF.XML file to Jeff, please do so ASAP – jeffmd [at] swingstateproject [dot] com. Please be sure to include your SSP username and a link to your diary. Thanks! (D)

• AR-Sen: Alleged United States Senator Blanche Lincoln is whinging that actually doing her job in December cost her $300,000 in fundraising receipts. This is probably her way of saying her numbers will be lighter than expected this quarter. Why on earth would you go public with this, though? This is not exactly the kind of message you want to communicate to the public – or your opponents. (D)

• CA-Sen: A lot of Republicans seemed dismayed by Carla Fiorina’s suggestions a few months ago that she wasn’t going to be dipping into her personal money in order to fund her Senate bid – I mean, that was the whole point of her running, wasn’t it? At any rate, she’s just reversed course, with her latest finance report, which reveals that she loaned her campaign $2.5 million. Having burned through most of her outside donations, that leaves her with $2.7 million on hand.

• FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Charlie Crist’s message discipline seems to be gotten completely unglued, as he searches for the just-right pitch that’s moderate enough and yet conservative enough. Today, he’s acknowledging support for the stimulus package and “being nice” to Barack Obama, and not apologizing for either one. Meanwhile, there’s still that persistent rumor out there involving Crist bailing on the Senate race and going back to another term as Governor. That’s not happening if GOP AG Bill McCollum has anything to say about it; he says he won’t stand down for Crist.

• MA-Sen: Everyone’s still milling around waiting for that rumored close Boston Herald poll, but in the meantime, a new Democratic internal poll floated to the surface this morning, and it seems to give some credence to that Boston Globe/UNH poll that gave a solid 15-point margin to Democratic AG Martha Coakley. The internal, conducted by Mark Mellman’s firm, gives Coakley a 50-36 lead over Republican state Sen. Scott Brown, with Libertarian candidate Joe Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy clan) pulling in a surprisingly-high 6 (which may be coming out of Brown’s share). If Brown has internals showing the race a dead heat like he claims, now would be the time for him to lay them on the table. Also today comes word that Barack Obama has no plans to campaign for Coakley, although I don’t know whether to interpret that as a sign of Democratic confidence, or of Obama not wanting to risk political capital on something that’s less than a slam dunk.

• ND-Sen: Gov. John Hoeven had said he needed a few weeks to get some stuff out of the way before saying anything official about the Senate race, but it looks like the stuff was more easily cleared away than anticipated: he’s now expected to announce his candidacy at an appearance at a GOP district convention in Bismarck tonight.  

• NY-Sen-B: Republican Rep. Peter King announced, for something like the third or fourth time, that he is no longer considering running for the Senate, and instead will run for another term in NY-03. Stay tuned for next month, when King will at some point remember that he hasn’t been on cable news for a while and will reveal that he’s considering a run for the Senate. Meanwhile, the political establishment is continuing to take seriously the possibility of a Harold Ford Jr. primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand, going all the way up to the White House, which today confirmed that it will back Gillibrand over Ford. Ford, meanwhile, is doing some serious remodeling of his image to better comport with New York codes: he’s now done a complete 180 on gay marriage, which he’s now for, and on abortion, where he claims that when he said he was pro-life, it was to “take back” the term from its right-wing appropriators. Finally, the Republicans will have to look elsewhere than ex-Rep. Susan Molinari for their nominee; after a brief flirtation, Molinari (who’s making big money consulting and probably doesn’t want the pay cut) just declined.

• UT-Sen: This should come as no surprise, but the NRSC, tasked with defending incumbents, confirmed that it’s supporting Bob Bennett in his re-election bid against several right-wing primary challengers. The Club for Growth has painted a bullseye on Bennett’s back, although they haven’t settled on which challenger to support.

• CO-Gov: Denver mayor John Hickenlooper hasn’t leaped as quickly into the Governor’s race (following the withdrawal of Bill Ritter and demurral of Ken Salazar) as many had expected; he’s saying he’ll make a decision within the next five days, so stay tuned. Former House speaker Andrew Romanoff, currently an invisible presence in the Senate primary, has also been consulting with Democratic officials about getting in, although it sounds like he’d do so only if Hickenlooper didn’t. Another rumor getting bandied about: Romanoff joining forces and running as Hickenlooper’s Lt. Gov. candidate; at any rate, it sounds like Romanoff is looking for an exit from the Senate race. Hickenlooper’s decision may get helped along by a certain Barack Obama, who apparently called Hickenlooper to encourage him to get into the race (Hickenlooper says that doesn’t change his decision, though).

• KS-Gov: Kansas Democrats are getting way, way down the totem pole as they look for a gubernatorial candidate, with Tom Wiggans’ recent withdrawal. Board of Regents chair Jill Docking, whose name frequently appears as Democrats’ Plan B in a variety of races, said she won’t run, and now the fickle finger seems to be pointing at Lawrence-area state Sen. Marci Francisco. (H/t Campaign Diaries.)

• MA-Gov: The Boston Globe/UNH poll of the Senate race also asked about 2010’s gubernatorial race, and it’s more confirmation for the apparent trend that Dem incumbent Deval Patrick seems bolstered by the presence of state Treasurer Tim Cahill’s independent bid (despite Patrick’s 39/50 favorables and Cahill’s 39/15). Rather than Cahill dominating the middle, as he may have expected, instead he just winds up splitting the anti-Patrick vote, leaving the race’s GOPers a distant third. A Patrick/Cahill/Charlie Baker ballot plays out 30-23-19, while Patrick/Cahill/Christy Mihos is a similar 32-23-19.

• CA-11: The GOP hasn’t quite found a top-tier candidate to take on Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney, the only Golden State Dem who’s even remotely vulnerable. But they might get something of an upgrade with the newly-announced candidacy of David Harmer, the Republican attorney who acquitted himself fairly well in the special election last year in much bluer CA-10. He can bring residual name rec and fundraising connections to the race, and one of the race’s lesser lights, former San Jose city councilor Larry Pegram, is already moving to get out of the race. Still, Harmer doesn’t live in the district, and he exposes himself to the same carpetbagging charges he brought to his race against John Garamendi in the 10th.

• CA-19: Kevin McCarthy looks a little flaky after this whole incident: it was reported last Friday that the Bakersfield-area Republican was sticking with his earlier endorsement of state Sen. Jeff Denham in the 19th while admitting a bit of a man-crush on ex-Rep. Richard Pombo. But now the Fresno Bee is reporting that McCarthy has gone all the way, spurned Denham, and is now endorsing Pombo.

• HI-01: The local political establishment weighed in heavily on the side of state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa in the upcoming special election to replace resigning Rep. Neil Abercrombie. The decision of Sen. Daniel Akaka to endorse Hanabusa over his nemesis Ed Case should be no surprise, but this was accompanied by endorsements from the state’s other Senator, Daniel Inouye, and a variety of labor leaders as well. Case does have one endorsement which he’s touting in ads, though, from ex-Governor Ben Cayetano.

• NY-23: Doug Hoffman won’t have the GOP primary field to himself in the 23rd after all. He’ll face a fight with a fellow conservative, albeit more of a team player: Assemblyman Will Barclay, who passed on a run in the special election in the 23rd, says he’s begun exploring the general election race.

• OK-02: Rep. Dan Boren can always be counted on to say something douchey, and today’s no exception. He tells the Tulsa World (in an article titled “Boren: Democrats May Lose Congress”) that Dems are likely to lose seats in Congress, and that’s good news for Oklahoma and especially for him personally. “”In the 112th (Congress), I probably will have the most influence I have ever had, no matter who has the majority,” he says.

• TN-08: It remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the race to succeed retiring Dem Rep. John Tanner, but the Republican primary just shrunk by one: computer consultant Donn Janes has announced that he’s going to run instead as a Tea Party-aligned independent. (J)

• Mayors: That Rahm Emanuel-running-for-Chicago-mayor thing seemed to last a whole couple days. Emanuel yesterday praised Richard Daley and backed him for another term starting in 2011.

• Florida: For all the general black clouds hanging over the Democrats regarding 2010, there’s always a lot of nuts-and-bolts numbers that somehow still look favorable, such as party committee fundraising and registration numbers. In Florida, both are actually advantage Team Blue, as the state Democratic party is sitting on $2.6 million cash on hand, $1 million more than state Republicans. Democrats have also built up their registration advantage over Republicans in Florida, to a margin of more than 800,000.

• Tea Partiers: TPM has an interesting look at the civil war growing within the Tea Party movement, a microcosm of the larger civil war within the Republican party. Front and center today is the big teabaggers’ convention in Nashville (with Sarah Palin as keynoter), which is too expensive for many of the teabagging rank and file to attend, leading some to question whether there’s a usurpation of the movement by the Republicans’ Beltway professional class. Meanwhile, Think Progress has some new additions to its ongoing compendium of teabagger primary challenges to establishment GOPers.

• Redistricting contest: Attention all redistricting nerds! Our New York redistricting contest deadline is Sunday, midnight Eastern time, so get your maps done. Don’t forget that people need to email their .DRF.XML files to jeffmd at swingstateproject dot com.

• AR-Sen, MO-Sen: Here’s an interesting alliance between two prominent female Senate candidates, one perhaps our most vulnerable incumbent and the other our likeliest pickup. Blanche Lincoln and Robin Carnahan have formed a joint fundraising committee, the Missouri Arkansas Victory Fund.

• CT-Sen: I had almost forgotten about Merrick Alpert, a young entrepreneur who’d been trying to carve out some space for himself in the Democratic primary against Chris Dodd as the “clean” outsider (and had been polling in the low double digits in primary polls, by virtue of his non-Dodd-ness). With the departure of Dodd and his replacement with the squeaky-clean Richard Blumenthal, it looks like Alpert’s going to need to do some message retooling. At any rate, Alpert says he’s sticking around in the race no matter what.

• DE-Sen: A politician voting against something, and then take credit for its benefits after it passes anyway? Why, I’m sure that’s never happened before. Still, it’s not the kind of thing you might expect Rep. Mike Castle to do… but he’s doing it anyway, touting $5 million in aid to the Delaware state government that came from the stimulus package he voted against.

• FL-Sen: I’m not sure if Charlie Crist actually thinks this’ll work; it seems like a transparent-enough ploy that the teabaggers will see through it like Grandma’s underpants. At any rate, he’s spinning to the paranoid right as quickly as the newly-rabid John McCain, decrying “Obamacare secrecy” in HCR negotiations, and also engaging in a little revisionist history about his stance on abortion.

• MA-Sen: Everyone’s getting Twitter-pated about PPP’s early teasings of its poll of this race, which they say is “loseable” for the Democrats; the actual numbers should be out this weekend. Still, you’d think that if there were an actual fire going on here, you’d see the national committees getting involved, and they aren’t (yet)… although the RNC has been sending around an e-mail asking for money on state Sen. Scott Brown’s behalf. Meanwhile, Martha Coakley has a big fundraiser scheduled for next Tuesday in DC (with all the state’s Congressional delegation and other moneybags luminaries like the Podestas) — although, given how gigantic a cash advantage she already has for blanketing the airwaves, it seems like that day might be better spent actually working on the ground than heading to Washington.

• ND-Sen: It turns out R2K had a perfectly good poll of North Dakota in the field on Tuesday, which got spoiled when Byron Dorgan suddenly retired. Still, it sheds some light on Dorgan’s retirement decision, as the final result is Hoeven 54, Dorgan 37 (which may be skewed toward Hoeven because they kept asking polling after Dorgan’s announcement, but Dorgan was still losing before the announcement too). That’s despite Dorgan’s sky-high approvals of 63%… just what happens when the state’s natural lean is against you, and someone even more popular than you comes along (just ask Lincoln Chafee). Remember that R2K found a 57-35 lead for Dorgan back in February over Hoeven; the flip was driven in large part by independents, who moved decisively from Dorgan to Hoeven over the year. One other Democratic name is getting floated as a potential Dorgan successor: former Dorgan aide and former state Senator Kristin Hedger.

• NY-Sen-B: Lots of New York’s power players are trying to talk Harold Ford Jr. down from the ledge regarding his potential primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand, starting with Gillibrand’s mentor Charles Schumer. Rep. Jerry Nadler, who came around late to supporting Gillibrand but is firmly in her column now, also joined in the chorus telling Ford (who’s been huddling with advisors from Michael Bloomberg’s coterie) to back off. The campaign against Ford almost seems to write itself, starting with his pro-life proclamations and the fact that he’s been registered to vote in New York for only six weeks. That’s only the tip of the iceberg, though; Campaign Diaries has the definitive takedown of his record.

• NV-Sen: Some more intraparty sniping in Nevada, where Rep. Dean Heller is still complaining that John Ensign continues to tarnish the GOP’s brand in the state, which could hurt its chances in the Senate and Governor’s races in 2010. Heller said he wouldn’t call for Ensign to resign, “at least not on this show.”

• PA-Sen: Former Commonwealth Court judge Doris Smith-Ribner ended her longshot bid in the Democratic primary in the Senate race, having made no fundraising progress. She made so little impact I don’t see this changing much of anything, although maybe it helps Rep. Joe Sestak a bit via less splitting of the anti-Arlen Specter vote. She’s switching over to the Lt. Governor’s race, although she faces a longshot bid there too for the Dem nod against former Philadelphia controller Jonathan Saidel.

• UT-Sen: Maybe yesterday’s news that Jason Chaffetz wouldn’t challenge him was good news for Bob Bennett, but things aren’t getting any better for Team Bob. He’s now officially a target of the Club for Growth, unhappy with his occasionally moments of across-the-aisle comity. The CfG doesn’t have a preferred horse in the race, yet, as they seem torn between Mike Lee, Tim Bridgewater, and Cherilyn Eagar; for now, they’re calling all three of them “superior” to Bennett.

• NM-Gov: The New Mexico GOP has only a number of second-stringers running for Governor (with Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez maybe the most interesting), so they still seem to be casting about. They’ve gotten a nibble from a local attorney with no electoral experience but a prominent family name: Pete Domenici Jr.

• SD-Gov: One more Republican got into the field in the South Dakota gubernatorial race, bringing the total to five. State Sen. Gordon Howie seems to be laying claim to the teabaggers’ mantle in the race, via his presidency of the Tea Party-linked Citizens for Liberty. (I’d rather see him run for the House, where he could someday form the Guys Whose Names Seem To Be Out Of Order Caucus, along with Rodney Tom and Nickie Monica.)

• TX-Gov, TX-Sen: Kay Bailey Hutchison’s gubernatorial run has been giving John Cornyn nonstop heartburn since he took over the NRSC, and now he seems to be strategically leaking that he’d prefer that she drop her gubernatorial bid altogether (despite the primary being only two months away) to avoid the prospect of an expensive special election. Note to Cornyn: she’ll lose the gubernatorial primary anyway, and you’ll have her back shortly. While smart Texans (see White, Bill) seem to be backing away from the Senate-Race-that-probably-won’t-exist, one more Republican is floating his name for the hypothetical race. And it’s a guy I didn’t know even had any political inclinations: ESPN talking head Craig James.

• UT-Gov: Democrats got a good candidate to run in the 2010 gubernatorial special election: Salt Lake County mayor Peter Corroon confirmed that he’ll run. Corroon still faces a steep uphill fight, given the state’s crimson hue, but Dems have a better opening than usual, given the muddled Republican field in view of possible convention and/or primary challenges to appointed Gov. Gary Herbert.

• CA-19: Neighboring Representatives are taking sides in the Republican primary in the open seat race in the 19th. Kevin McCarthy, who leads NRCC recruitment efforts, is sticking with his initial endorsement of state Sen. Jeff Denham despite ex-Rep. Richard Pombo’s entry to the race (although he confesses that he “likes” Pombo too), while Devin Nunes has endorsed his ex-colleague Pombo. Denham also benefits from endorsements from many of the other state GOP House members (Dreier, Royce, Campbell, Issa, and Herger), although Duncan Hunter Jr. switched to “neutral” from Denham after Pombo’s entry.

• IN-09: It’s on… for the fifth freakin’ time. Ex-Rep. Mike Sodrel is launching another run against Democratic Rep. Baron Hill. (Hill has a 3-1 win record in their meetings so far.) The trouble is, unlike previous tries, Sodrel will have to get through a primary this time; attorney Todd Young has already raised substantial money and has many establishment endorsements (including some statewide officials). With Sodrel increasingly buddying up to the teabaggers, this looks like it has the potential to turn into one more skirmish in the establishment/movement battle.

• ND-AL: Republicans suddenly seem more interested in taking on the usually untouchable Democratic Rep. Earl Pomeroy, no doubt heartened by the knowledge that they’d be running downticket from John Hoeven in the Senate race and might benefit from coattails. State Rep. Rick Berg is sounding the loudest, although former Insurance Comm. Jim Poolman also is expressing interest. Public Service Commission member Kevin Cramer (who’s lost twice to Pomeroy before) was scoping out a run even before Byron Dorgan’s retirement.

• NH-02: With a crowd already formed in the NH-02 Democratic primary, Executive Councilor Debora Pignatelli declined to run. She didn’t endorse attorney Ann McLane Kuster, state Rep. John DeJoie, or Katrina Swett (who hasn’t formally declared yet), though.

• PA-04: There are rumors of a potential primary challenge from the left to Rep. Jason Altmire (despite the R+6 character of his suburban Pittsburgh district). Businesswoman Georgia Berner — who lost the 2006 primary to Altmire, who went on to defeat GOP Rep. Melissa Hart in the general — is dissatisfied with Altmire’s Blue Doggish record and is considering a rematch.

• VA-05: Some more delicious cat fud in the 5th, where state Sen. Robert Hurt, the Republican establishment’s pick in the race, has told the teabaggers to get bent. He’ll be skipping two debates sponsored by Tea Party organizations (although he cites the legislative calendar as the reasons for not showing up).

• Polltopia: Nate Silver has a very interesting deconstruction of Rasmussen, one of the best things I’ve seen written about them yet. He looks at why they keep finding right-wing insurgent candidates (Marco Rubio, Rand Paul) overperforming against Democratic candidates compared to Republican establishment rivals, contrary to other pollsters. What he sees is that between their exclusionary likely voter screen and their one-day polling periods (with no callbacks), they’re disproportionately reaching the most informed, motivated, and ideologically-driven voters.

A whopping eight months since my last Senate roundup, I figured it was high time to survey the landscape again. Overall, things have gotten significantly better for the Republicans in the last year, though not nearly as overwhelmingly so as the drama-prone national media might have you believe.

A continued Democratic majority in the Senate is all but assured after November (and is still quite likely in the House as well). The probable range, IMO, is a Democratic caucus in the 112th Senate of between 54 seats at the low end and 58 seats at the high end.

Read a race-by-race analysis (with pretty maps) below the fold…

This is the playing field in 2010: Democratic open seats in North Dakota, Connecticut, and Delaware; Republican open seats in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Kentucky, New Hampshire, and Kansas. And here is my (early) results projection:

I am fairly certain of Republican pickups in North Dakota, Arkansas, and Nevada at this time, while the true tossup races for now are in Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, Delaware, and New Hampshire. The Democrats remain very slight favorites to hold Illinois and Pennsylvania, and the Republicans retain edges in Florida, Kentucky, and North Carolina.

As always, seats are ranked by likelihood of flipping:

1. North Dakota (open) – Byron Dorgan (D) retiring after 3 terms

Outlook: Very Likely Republican pickup

Dorgan’s retirement is indeed a huge blow to the Democrats, though perhaps canceled out by Dodd’s bowing out in Connecticut. Gov. John Hoeven (R) is in and will almost certainly be the junior Senator from North Dakota.

2. Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln (D) seeking third term

Outlook: Likely Republican pickup

Lincoln’s numbers are getting uglier against all opponents (the best she does is an eight-point deficit) and show no signs of recovering. Barring an eleventh-hour miracle, her Senate career is over, it seems.

3. Nevada – Harry Reid (D) seeking fifth term

Outlook: Leans Republican pickup

Reid has such a fundraising advantage and some time left to up his approval ratings, but few longtime incumbents recover from these dismal numbers. Many Democrats are probably quietly hoping that Reid “pulls a Dodd” in the next few months.

4. Colorado – Michael Bennet (D) seeking full term

Outlook: Tossup

Bennet faces a tough challenge in the Democratic primary from former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, and neither candidate seems secure against ex-Lt. Gov. Jane Norton or any of the other Republican prospects. The Democrats definitely have a good chance to hold this seat, with neither candidate carrying much prior baggage, but I sense that this race will go however the national climate goes, and at this moment, that means it will go to the GOP.

5. Delaware (open) – Ted Kaufman (D) retiring after partial term

Outlook: Tossup

I know that most polls have shown longtime Rep. Mike Castle (R) leading state Attorney General Beau Biden (D), but I for one am fairly convinced this race will tighten and the trends go Biden’s way once he declares and the state’s Democrats start “coming home.” Interestingly, Castle will be 71 years old on election day, to Biden’s 41, so there will likely be a noticeable contrast in tone and style between these two highly familiar candidates.

6. Missouri (open) – Kit Bond (R) retiring after four terms

Outlook: Tossup

Polls here have been close but consistent, with Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) barely ahead of Rep. Roy Blunt (R), always within the margin of error. Still, considering the GOP-friendly trends elsewhere during the last several months, this seems a promising sign for the Show Me State Democrats. For now, this is the Dems’ best opportunity for a pickup.

6. Ohio (open) – George Voinovich (R) retiring after two terms

Outlook: Tossup / Leans Republican hold

Even with nationwide Republican advances of late, former Rep. Rob Portman (R) has never built a convincing lead against either Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) or Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D). Fisher is favored to win the primary, and at the point I expect the race to become a tossup. If the election were today, Portman would win.

7. New Hampshire (open) – Judd Gregg (R) retiring after three terms

Outlook: Tossup / Leans Republican hold

Former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) has a slight lead over Rep. Paul Hodes (D) — grain-of-salt-worthy pollster ARG has her ahead 43-36, hardly a game-ending advantage. Like Ohio, Hodes should close the gap over the spring and summer, and if he doesn’t, we should be worried.

8. Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter (D) seeking sixth term

Outlook: Leans Democratic hold

Specter is in for a close fight (if he makes it to the general election) against former Rep. Pat Toomey (R), the hardline conservative who nearly unseated him in the GOP primary back in 2004. In the meantime, Rep. Joe Sestak is giving Specter reason to watch his left flank. But Specter has been careful to compile a fairly progressive record since switching parties last spring, and my own prediction is that this gives him a clear edge for the nomination. At that point, disaffected Democrats and moderate-minded Independents will gradually line up behind the incumbent in big enough numbers to carry him to victory over Toomey, especially if the winds shift back to the Dems over the summer.

9. Illinois (open) – Roland Burris (D) retiring after partial term

Outlook: Leans Democratic hold

The polls have been unclear about who has the advantage in a race between Republican Rep. Mark Kirk and Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, while (due to name recognition) Kirk polls well ahead of lesser-known Dems David Hoffman and Cheryle Jackson. Considering the state’s recent history, it’s hard to imagine Kirk winning on any but an exceptionally fortunate night for the GOP.

10. Florida (open) – George LeMieux (R) retiring after partial term

Outlook: Leans Republican hold

Gov. Charlie Crist has long been the favorite for this seat in a general election, as his cross-partisan popularity remains high, but his biggest problem will be winning the GOP primary against conservative former state House Speaker Marco Rubio. If Rubio beats Crist, as many now expect (though his momentum could always stall), expect a competitive and expensive race between Rubio and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D).

11. North Carolina – Richard Burr (R) seeking second term

Outlook: Leans Republican hold

I’ve been surprised by the sporadic polling in this race. Burr faces a reputable challenger in Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D), even if this is a Southern state in a GOP-leaning election cycle. Burr is far from universally popular or even universally recognized, but for now the DSCC clearly has to prioritize defense.

12. Kentucky (open) – Jim Bunning (R) retiring after 2 terms

Outlook: Leans Republican hold

The Democratic primary between Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo and state Attorney General Jack Conway has been nasty, while “small government conservative” Rand Paul has by several accounts taken the upper hand in the GOP primary against Secretary of State Trey Grayson, the establishment choice. Considering Kentucky’s traditional balance of social conservatism with economic liberalism, Paul would seem an unorthodox general election choice, but polls show he would do well against the Democrats. Definitely a primary to watch, even if either Republican is clearly favored in November.

Just below competitive:

– California for the Democrats (Boxer clearly ahead of Carly Fiorina, but not quite out of the woods)

– Gillibrand (New York B) for the Democrats (against anyone but Rep. Peter King, who might keep the race competitive, Gillibrand should win easily, assuming she wins the primary)

– Louisiana for the Republicans (Vitter leads Rep. Charlie Melancon, but his personal issues make it hard for me to rate him as “safe”)

The Democrats should be fine in Connecticut (Blumenthal trouncing Simmons/McMahon/Schiff), as should the Republicans in Kansas (either Tiahrt or Moran). Meanwhile, Republican incumbents seem solid (in the general election, at least) in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Utah. Democratic incumbents should win without trouble in Hawaii, Indiana, Maryland, New York (Schumer), Oregon, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.

• AR-Sen: The news that the guy who held Blanche Lincoln to within about 10 points last time (in 2004) is getting back in the race this year seems like it should be a bigger news story than it is, but there’s an already filled-to-capacity GOP field and the establishment seems to have already picked favorites. At any rate, former state Sen. Jim Holt, closely linked with the state’s religious right, officially launched his bid today.

• AZ-Sen: It’s look more and more like ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth is serious about pursuing a Republican primary challenge to John McCain and not just looking to fundraise his way out of some lingering legal debts. He’s been contacting consultants and pollsters about strategy, and he’s also made some high-profile appearances recently, including headlining a fundraiser for controversial Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. In response to the possible challenge, John McCain is launching two different radio ads full of right-wing language pretty transparently aimed at the teabagging crowd, saying Barack Obama is “leading an extreme left-wing crusade” and calling himself “Arizona’s last line of defense.”

• CT-Sen: Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves, but it’s looking likelier that starting in 2013, Richard Blumenthal will be Connecticut’s senior senator. PPP finds that Joe Lieberman’s numbers, not good before his HCR sabotage, have gotten even worse. His approval is a mind-blowing 14/81 among Democrats (probably ending any plans by him to seek the Democratic nomination in 2012). He fares least worst among Republicans, who give him a 39/48 approval; it’s good for a 25/67 approval over all, along with a 19/68 approval of his actions on health care (which pissed off Democrats while still leaving Republicans unhappy when he voted for final passage). While the Hill’s piece on Rep. Chris Murphy seems to be based mostly on a vague sentence by Murphy, it does point to a suddenly congealing CW that Murphy (with Blumenthal already engaged) will be the person to tackle Lieberman in 2012.

• FL-Sen, FL-Gov: You know you’re in trouble when you’re spending valuable time fighting rumors spread on Facebook by thoroughly discredited ex-Rep. Mark Foley. Charlie Crist today said there’s no truth to the rumors that he’s about to drop his faltering Senate primary bid and try for re-election as Governor instead.

• IL-Sen: Patrick Hughes, who’s been seeding his right-wing insurgent bid with some of his own money, is seeking to break out of the single digits in the GOP primary polls against Rep. Mark Kirk by upping his name recognition. He’s out with a TV spot today.

• MA-Sen: Martha Coakley is shifting her sleepy general election campaign into overdrive today with the special election several weeks away, launching her first general election TV ad. She’s also receiving the endorsements today of most of the key figures in the Kennedy clan, including Ted’s widow Vicky and ex-Rep. Joe (along with honorary Kennedy and temporary Senator Paul Kirk).

• ND-Sen: As we parse the comments from various potential Democratic candidates in the newly-open Senate race in North Dakota, it sounds like former AG Heidi Heitkamp is “very interested” and “very much looking into” the race, while talk show host Ed Schultz is “at this point… not even considering.”

• NY-Sen-B: Here’s an interesting possibility surfacing, as the GOP seeks anyone who’s willing to take on Kirsten Gillibrand in the Senate race: ex-Rep. Susan Molinari, who was considered a rising star back when she represented NY-13. She’s started floating her name out there (or more accurately, her dad, Staten Island GOP leader Guy Molinari), but one key point from the article is that Molinari — currently employed at the firm of Bracewell & Giuliani (yes, that Giuliani) — “left Congress in 1997 and currently lives in Virginia.” Meanwhile, as the potential Harold Ford Jr. candidacy is still the “wtf?” heard ’round the blogosphere, The Albany Project takes a deeper look at the mysterious forces pushing the idea front and center.

• IL-Gov: Desperately needing to make up some ground on incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn in the last month before the Democratic primary, Comptroller Dan Hynes is going hard negative against Quinn from the apparent right in a new TV spot, painting him as a soft-on-crime tax-raiser. Meanwhile, Quinn got the endorsement from the Chicago Sun-Times.

• MA-Gov: State Treasurer Tim Cahill’s independent candidacy for Governor hasn’t really seemed to have its desired effect for Cahill, as it mostly has allowed Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick to move ahead in the polls as Cahill splits the anti-Patrick votes. Cahill looks to be trying to lure some more GOP voters into his camp to become the definitive anti-Patrick candidate, though, with his running mate pick, GOP former state Rep. Paul Loscocco. It doesn’t sound like Cahill or Loscocco are very enthuasiastic about taking each other to the prom, though; Cahill already got turned down by four previous people he’d asked to be his running mate (including current Senate candidate Scott Brown), and Loscocco had previously been lobbying to be GOP candidate Charlie Baker’s running mate but missed the cut on that one.

• MD-Gov: Incumbent Gov. Martin O’Malley seems to have a fairly clear path to re-election, but for the time being he has higher-profile opposition in his own primary than from the Republicans. He’s facing a challenge from the right from George Owings, who officially launched today. Owings was a conservative Democratic state Delegate for many years and then picked by GOP Governor Bob Ehrlich as the state’s veteran affairs secretary (who was then sacked by O’Malley once he took office); Owings is attacking O’Malley’s tax raising and opposition to the death penalty.

• NE-Gov: Democrats are back to square one in the Nebraska gubernatorial race against GOP incumbent Dave Heineman, after Douglas Co. Commissioner (and former Omaha mayor) Mike Boyle — who’d sounded likely to run last month — decided against a bid. Democratic state Sen. Steve Lathrop has also ruled the race out.

• CO-03: Martin Beeson, the Republican DA for an agglomeration of small mountain counties, has pulled out of his bid for the GOP nod in the 3rd to challenge Rep. John Salazar. Beeson’s hopes dimmed when state Rep. (and 2006 loser) Scott Tipton got into the GOP field a few months ago.

• IL-10: Moderate Republican state Rep. Beth Coulson got a big (if unsurprising) endorsement, from fellow GOP moderate ex-Rep. John Porter. Porter held the seat for 20 years, until he made way for his former chief of staff (current Rep. Mark Kirk) in 2000.

• MN-01: Apparently John Wade, the president of Rochester’s Chamber of Commerce, had been interested in a run in the 1st against Democratic sophomore Rep. Tim Walz. He just decided against it, although a lone business conservative seems like he might have a shot at winning the crowded GOP primary, split between a number of loudmouthed social conservatives (most notably ex-state Rep. Allen Quist).

• MS-01: Good fundraising has propelled Republican state Sen. Alan Nunnelee up a tier in the NRCC’s framework for challengers. Nunnelee, who’ll likely face off against Rep. Travis Childers and his mighty ‘stache, is now a “Contender.”

• TN-06: Democrats are having trouble recruiting to fill the slot left behind by Rep. Bart Gordon’s retirement. State Rep. Henry Fincher just said no; he follows fellow state Rep. Mike McDonald in declining. It can’t be that appetizing, given the district’s reddening hue, several strong GOPers waiting in the wings, and the likelihood of GOP gerrymandering making the district even less hospitable in 2012.

• UT-03, UT-Sen: I’d be surprised if anyone were on pins and needles about this, but if you missed yesterday’s announcement, yes, Rep. Jason Chaffetz will be returning for another term in the House rather than getting into the primary against impermissibily sane GOP Sen. Bob Bennett.

• EMILY’s List: Stephanie Shriock, chief of staff to Sen. Jon Tester, will take over as head of EMILY’s List from Ellen Malcolm. It marks the first change in leadership at the top for the prolific PAC.

• RNC: After a revolt by what remains of its moderate wing, the RNC has backed down on its purity test (which would require 8 of 10 agreements on right-wing positions, and probably would have cut loose Mike Castle, Mark Kirk, Rob Simmons, and Charlie Crist loose from RNC funding). Now they’re simply requiring that nobody endorse any Democratic candidates in 2010. Meanwhile, Michael Steele continues to overshadow the rest of the RNC’s operations with his gift of saying odd things, with today’s installment a riposte to intraparty critics intent on withholding RNC donations because of Steele’s leadership: “get a life” or “fire me.”

• Gay marriage: It’s been flying under the radar with everything else going on this week, but New Jersey’s state Senate is currently debating gay marriage, with a vote possibly later today. Only 13 Senators have definitely committed to it so far though, short of the 21 needed for passage. (Dems are already short 1 vote with the absence of Dana Redd, who resigned after becoming mayor of Camden.)

• Census: Here’s an interesting conundrum for the Census Bureau — how to deal with the issue of the nation’s legions of sunbirds: retirees who live in the south for winter and the north for summer. It’s especially an issue for Minnesota as it seeks to stave off elimination of one of its Congressional districts, and it’s making special efforts to make sure long-term travelers list themselves according to their Minnesota addresses.

I’m now going to say a sentence I never thought I’d have to say: Let’s round up everything that’s happened so far in North Dakota today. The big news in the wake of Byron Dorgan’s retirement announcement, of course, is perhaps also the least surprising: Republican Gov. John Hoeven wasted no time in throwing his name into the ring for the newly open seat:

Popular Gov. John Hoeven is letting his political allies know that he’s preparing to run for the seat of retiring Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.)

North Dakota Republican Party Chairman Gary Emineth told POLITICO that he spoke with Hoeven’s senior staff soon after learning of Dorgan’s retirement, and they informed him that Hoeven is preparing to jump in the Senate race once he deals with family issues back home.

Hoeven apparently will formally disclose his intentions within “two weeks.” Hoeven’s quick entry would almost certainly work to exclude any other prominent North Dakota Republicans from considering the race.

Now, who’s going to be running for the Democrats? If the Progressive Change Campaign Committee gets its way, it’ll still be Dorgan. They’ve organized a letter-writing campaign of constituents asking Dorgan to reconsider and run again; they’ve already racked up more than 1,000 notes.

The highest Dem on the totem pole would seem to be the state’s at-large Representative since 1992 (when Dorgan got promoted to the Senate), Earl Pomeroy. Pomeroy is officially noncommital right now, but reportedly has let his staff know that he’ll be remaining in the House. That may be for the best, as Pomeroy would be an underdog against Hoeven and he’d place that House seat in jeopardy as well. Instead, much of the speculation about possible Dem candidates has turned to former AG Heidi Heitkamp, who in fact ran against Hoeven in his first gubernatorial race in 2000. She held him to a 55-45 margin in that race after being diagnosed with breast cancer in mid-campaign, although she’s been out of politics since then. (She’s currently a director at Dakota Gasification, a synethetic fuels company.) (UPDATE: A new CQ article confirms that Pomeroy won’t run, and also mentions that in addition to the possibility of Heidi Heitkamp running, so too could her brother Joel Heitkamp, a former state Senator and now host of a popular local talk show.)

Speculation has also turned to perhaps the most famous North Dakotan: populist talk show host Ed Schultz, who has been fielding calls requesting that he run (including from the state House minority leader, Merle Boucher). Schultz said he’s a “long way” from actively considering it, but didn’t explicitly rule it out and did addresss Hoeven’s potential vulnerability.

We’ll have a clearer sense of this race next week, when R2K polls this race (assumedly with Pomeroy, Heitkamp, and Schultz matchups against Hoeven). R2K will also be tackling Colorado and Connecticut next week as well. (Discussion underway in BruinKid‘s diary.)

RaceTracker Wiki: ND-Sen

Breaking news from Politico, it looks like North Dakota Governor John Hoeven (R) WILL run for the Senate to replace Dorgan.

So does this mean SSP changes it to “Likely R”?

FYI, with a nationwide economy where every state seems to be in the red, Hoeven’s popularity is sky high in part because North Dakota is like one of only two states where they actually somehow have a budget surplus.

And now we’re getting reports that MSNBC host Ed Schultz has been called up by the ND Dems leader Merle Boucher about possibly running for the Senate seat.  As it’s so new, Schultz hasn’t categorically said no.  More discussion on this at DailyKos and Huffington Post.