Tag: Mary Fallin

SoonerPoll.com (1/2-5, likely voters):

Drew Edmondson (D): 39

Mary Fallin (R): 51

Jari Askins (D): 36

Mary Fallin (R): 52

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Primaries:

Drew Edmondson (D): 46

Jari Askins (D): 36

(MoE: ±5.4%)

Randy Brogdon (R): 16

Mary Fallin (R): 68

(MoE: ±6%)

These numbers are pretty close to the general picture we’ve seen so far: a Fallin internal from June had similar spreads, while PPP had Fallin up by spreads of 10 and 16 points. The interesting thing, though, is that Askins and Edmondson remain pretty well-liked; in fact, Edmondson’s favorable rating (51-31) is very close to Fallin’s (54-29). Askins is at a pretty decent 43-28. It almost makes you wonder if one of these two leading Democrats might consider running for re-election instead.

RaceTracker Wiki: OK-Gov

The Tarrance Group for Mary Fallin (“June”, likely voters):

Drew Edmondson (D): 37

Mary Fallin (R): 53

Jari Askins (D): 35

Mary Fallin (R): 54

(MoE: ±4%)

This poll is both dusty and Republican, but I could easily buy those numbers as reasonably accurate. Duplicating the Brad Henry Miracle of 2002 seems like a pretty tall order for a Democrat next year, especially in a state where the bottom has fallen out from under the national Democratic brand over the past two cycles. (Not to mention the gradual but persistent losses that Oklahoma Dems have accumulated on the state legislative level.)

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

RaceTracker Wiki: OK-Gov

There’s been a flurry of polling of the Oklahoma Governor’s race lately, showing former Representative (and CFL great) J.C. Watts beating the Democrats in the general, and at least competitive with retiring Rep. (and former Lt. Gov.) Mary Fallin in the GOP primary. Well, today, Watts made clear that he wouldn’t be running in 2010.

“I have observed with great interest and pride the progress my state is making under the bold and innovative leadership of the state legislature. Nothing would give me greater joy and satisfaction than to go work with these leaders to grow and prosper Oklahoma,” Watts said in a statement. “However, my current business and contractual obligations create hurdles that I cannot overcome at this time.”

Watts had recently made statements that left him sounding skeptical about being able to raise the funds, but this is still a bit surprising in view of solid polls. This leaves Fallin an easier path to the nomination. She isn’t unopposed, though; state Sen. Randy Brogdon is in the race, and will be the really, really conservative in the primary, as opposed to Fallin’s merely really conservative.

And there’s one last wild card… Sen. Tom Coburn, who has sounded non-commital about running for another Senate term and has occasionally been the subject of gubernatorial speculation; Coburn will reportedly announce his plans on June 1. The Dems, for their part, face a contested primary between Lt. Gov. Jari Askins and AG Drew Edmondson.  

• NY-20: Scott Murphy gets sworn in today as the newest member of the House Democratic caucus. Congratulations! (D)

• PA-Sen: All of a sudden, the Pennsylvania GOP is beating a path to Jim Gerlach’s door to get him to consider jumping over to the Senate race, now that they’re stuck facing an Arlen Specter vs. Pat Toomey wipeout in the general election. (Gerlach has been associated with the open governor’s race, but is still in the exploratory stage.) Gerlach says “Don’t rule anything out.” The rather moderate and Philly-burbs-based Gerlach might face the same weaknesses in a closed primary against Toomey that Specter did, though (although Gerlach hasn’t been cultivating conservative ill-will for decades like Specter).

• OK-Gov: Stuart Rothenberg reports that ex-Rep. J.C. Watts is getting close to a decision on whether to run for the governor’s seat in Oklahoma, and that he’s likely to get in. This would pit him in a battle royale with retiring Rep. (and former Lt. Gov.) Mary Fallin for the GOP nod.

• CA-03: Here’s some proof that there’s a lot of blood in the water in the eight GOP-held House seats that Obama won in California: some pretty big sharks are sniffing out the races. Phil Angelides (the former treasurer, and loser of the 2006 governor’s race) is reportedly “taking a serious look” at a run against Dan Lungren in the Dem-trending R+6 district in the Sacramento suburbs.

• OH-08: Butler County Sheriff Richard Jones, widely known as an anti-immigration activist, may challenge House GOP leader John Boehner in a primary in this R+14 district. (D)

• CA-44: No surprise here, but Bill Hedrick, who held Rep. Ken Calvert to 51-49 in this R+6 Inland Empire seat last year, officially announced he’s back for another try. The Corona/Norco School Board chair can’t expect another under-the-radar surprise attack, but can expect a lot of DCCC help this time.

• RNC: Although he seems to have publicly escaped the NY-20 loss without calls for his head, the behind-the-scenes attempts to take down or at least circumvent Michael Steele continue. Some RNC members are proposing a new rule that would place new restrictions and oversight on Steele’s power of the purse-strings. (Seems like they might get better results if they sought better restrictions and oversight on Steele’s mouth instead.)

• Gay Marriage: I’m pleasantly surprised how fast gay marriage is gaining widespread acceptance and turning into a winning issue for us: a CBS/NYT poll finds 42% support nationwide for legalized gay marriage, with another 25% supporting civil unions and only 28% opposed to any legal recognition. 57% of those under age 40 support gay marriage.

• Census: Here’s another example of how there’s no such thing as a neutral and apolitical census: there’s a debate raging over the issue of where to count persons who are in prison. While the Census Bureau currently plans to continue its policy in 2010 of counting prisoners where they reside (often in rural counties where a sizable percentage of the population is incarcerated), civil rights groups and even NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg support counting them at their last known address… which would mean more funds, and a redistricting advantage, for major cities.

• History: For the history fans among us, the Senate’s website has profiles of all 20 previous Senate party-switchers. (Here’s a chapter from US History I’d completely forgotten about: more than one-third of these switches were western-state senators in the 1890s during the free silver movement.)

• CA-32: Chu-mentum! Board of Equalization chair Judy Chu seems to be building up speed as we head toward the May 19 special election. Last week, Chu reported a sizable fundraising edge, raising $823K in the first quarter (compared with $568K for state senate Gil Cedillo and $153K for investment banker Emanuel Pleitez). And now, Chu received the unanimous endorsement of the state Democratic Party over the weekend.

• MN-Sen: No real surprise; Norm Coleman filed notice of intent to appeal to the Minnesota Supreme Court. Cost of 1,000 more billable hours: $500,000. Cost of another month of keeping the Democrats down to only 58 votes? Priceless.

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter has picked up another Democratic opponent; Bill Kortz, a member of the state House representing Allegheny County, has announced that he intends to file his statement of candidacy with the FEC soon. Kortz, a relatively fresh legislator (he successfully beat an incumbent Democrat in 2006), may find a statewide primary challenging — Rendell ally Joe Torsella has been in the race for a while and has raised nearly $600K, while other candidates, such as fellow state Rep. Josh Shapiro, are also eyeballing the race. In any event, his first item of business should be to upgrade his website. (J)

• MD-Gov: Bob Ehrlich is reportedly weighing a rematch with Martin O’Malley in 2010. If Ehrlich (Maryland’s only Republican governor in the last 30 years) doesn’t run, next in line may be Anne Arundel Co. Executive John Leopold.

• OK-Gov: State senator Randy Brogdon announced his run for the GOP gubernatorial nod this weekend, preventing Rep. Mary Fallin from having a clear shot at the nomination (after Rep. Tom Cole declined). A couple bigger names, ex-Rep. J.C. Watts and mmmmaybe Sen. Tom Coburn (who’s been sounding ambivalent about re-election to the senate), may still get in too.

• MN-06: There are mixed signals cropping up on whether Elwyn Tinklenberg is angling for a rematch with Archduchess Cuckoobananas Michele Bachmann. The Minnesota Independent says he’s “all but declaring himself a candidate.” On the other hand, he just gave almost $250,000 to the DCCC, suggesting he won’t be using it (unless he’s doing it to make amends for winding up with $500K in the bank at the end of the campaign last year… not exactly his fault, though, since almost all his cash arrived at the very last minute). State senator Taryl Clark is also eyeing the race.

• AL-07: The field to replace Artur Davis is getting clearer. Jefferson Co. Commissioner Sheila Smoot launched her campaign. State senate president pro tem Rodger Smitherman, however, said he won’t run. Smoot joins attorney Terri Sewell and state rep. Earl Hilliard Jr.

• FL-22: The GOP’s leading recruit to take on Democrat Ron Klein next year, state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, has decided that a congressional bid is not in the cards for him. (J)

• NY-19: GOP Assemblyman Greg Ball, who has been “testing the waters” in anticipation of a congressional bid for months now, will formally announce his candidacy for the seat of two-term Dem Rep. John Hall on May 9th. Ball was previously courted to run for this seat after gajillionaire businessman Andrew Saul unexpectedly terminated his bid against Hall in 2007. (J)

• CA-04: Third time’s the charm? Democrat Charlie Brown is telling local activists that he’s actively considering another run for the northeast California seat he narrowly lost last November to GOP wingnut Tom McClintock. Brown says that he expects to make up his mind “by this fall”. (J)

• WA-08: The Seattle Times strikes again, going on the early offensive against just-announced Dem candidate Suzan DelBene. Turns out DelBene didn’t vote in nine elections over the last five years (including the 2006 general, where Dave Reichert barely beat Darcy Burner the first time). (On the other hand, better this come out now than Oct. 2010.)

• TN-01: Rep. Phil Roe and ex-Rep. David Davis may get a nice Baron Hill/Mike Sodrel-style relationship going. Davis may be gearing up for a third run at Roe in the 2010 GOP primary. (Davis defeated Roe in an overcrowded 2006 primary when this was an open seat, then the slightly-less-conservative Roe defeated Davis in a two-man contest in 2008.)

• NM-01: The 2010 race in NM-01 promises to be fun(ereal). Kevin Daniels, owner of a chain of funeral homes, is exploring the race on the GOP side and, if nothing else, has the capacity to self-finance.

• Friendship: In the diaries, possumtracker makes a hilarious catch from a recent Hill survey in which all 41 Republican Senators were asked to name the Democrats whom they most enjoy partnering with on legislation. While most of the Senators gave thoughtful (and sometimes surprising) answers, Kentucky’s Jim Bunning could only muster up one word in response to the idea of collaborating with a Demmycrat: “No.” (J)

• Site News: SSP is delighted to announce that we’ve just welcomed our six millionth visitor to the site. Thank you, everyone! (D)

• NY-20: The NRCC is already using the paper-thin margin in NY-20 last night as the springboard for a whole new fundraising e-mail pitch: the Dems are trying to “pull a Franken” and “steal” the election in the courts, so please send lawyers, guns, and money. Eric Kleefeld has a thought on why this is good news! For Pete Sessions!

One problem Murphy might have is that Al Franken’s lawyers aren’t available right now. And in Tedisco’s favor, Norm Coleman’s attorneys are busy, too.

The Fix has obtained some Democratic projections of how things will shake out after all absentees are counted (they’re projecting Murphy by 210). This appears to be based on performance rates in the counties where the absentees came from (in other words, there seem to be disproportionately more absentees coming from pro-Murphy counties than Saratoga).

• AK-Sen: It happened a few months too late to save Ted Stevens’ job, but the DOJ has finally dropped its frequently-bungled case against Stevens after further instances of prosecutorial misconduct arose.

• CT-Sen: One more ‘oopsie’ for Chris Dodd: he blew through a lot of his campaign war chest on his ill-advised 2008 presidential run (he transferred $4.7 million from his 2010 senate kitty to his presidential campaign). He’s currently at only $670K cash on hand, compared with $1.6 million at this same point in his 2004 re-election.

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek plays Gallant to Chris Dodd’s Goofus: he raised a whopping $1.5 million in the first quarter, as he tries to nail down frontrunner status for the Democratic nomination.

• CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina, who was briefly sidelined by treatment for breast cancer, seems ready to get back into the political arena. She’s “seriously considering” entering the race against Barbara Boxer.

• OK-Gov, OK-04: SSP’s all-time favorite punching bag, Tom Cole, looks to be staying where he is. He’s declined to run for Oklahoma governor, leaving fellow Rep. Mary Fallin in the driver’s seat for the GOP nomination.

• TX-10: Democrat Jack McDonald, an Austin-area businessman running for the seat of GOP Rep. Mike McCaul, has announced that his campaign has raised over $300,000 in its first five weeks. Those are some pretty impressive numbers at this stage in the game. (J)

• NRCC/NRSC: Remember the brouhaha over the big NRCC/NRSC fundraising dinner where no one could figure out whether or not Sarah Palin was going to keynote, where it turned out that the governor’s office and SarahPAC had no idea what each other were doing? Well, amateur hour is continuing apace in Anchorage, as now she’s off again. In her place, Newt Gingrich (who would have ever predicted the day when Newt Gingrich would be seen, by comparison, as the GOP’s sober, rational elder statesman?).

• History: PolitickerNY takes an intersting trip down memory lane, looking at some of the greatest hits among previous close House elections, like CT-02 in 1994 and IN-08 in 1984.

• NC-Sen: If Richard Burr wants to be re-elected, there’s one big problem he’s going to have to overcome: his constituents don’t seem to have any idea who he is. PPP finds that his approval ratings are only 35%. That sounds dire, but he’s actually on the plus-side of the ledger, with 32% disapproval. That leaves 33% who don’t know, which is huge considering that he’s been in office for more than four years now. They also run a head-to-head for Burr against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (who seems to have no intention to run); Burr wins 43-35.

• CA-10: The field in California’s 10th district to replace Ellen Tauscher in a special election seems to be taking shape. As expected, the district’s two heavyweights, state senator Mark DeSaulnier and assemblyman Tom Torlakson (who recently swapped seats because of term limits), are jockeying for position. (Politico suggests several other possible Dems include assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, and Santa Monica city councilor and Kennedy clan member Bobby Shriver, who’s interested despite currently being about 400 miles outside the district.) While Obama won the district 65-33, the GOP isn’t going down without a fight; their possible candidates include San Ramon mayor Abram Wilson and former 49er Bret Jones.

• CT-Sen: Chris Dodd, who already has enough egg on his face to make a big omelette, got even messier with his admission that he inserted the language that allowed payment of the AIG bonuses. Nevertheless, he told the Hartford Courant today that he’s not retiring and is still in the race for 2010.

• OK-05: Oklahoma City mayor Mick Cornett, a potential contender for the open seat being vacated by gubernatorial candidate Mary Fallin, was making the rounds on Capitol Hill today. Cornett, who lost in the primary to Fallin in 2006, is still officially undecided on the race. The Club for Growth has already endorsed former state rep. Kevin Calvey. Other possible GOPers in the race include Corporation Commissioners Jeff Cloud and Bob Anthony, state senators Todd Lamb and Glenn Coffee, and state rep. Mike Thompson.

• LA-02: The NRCC isn’t letting go of this one without at least some token efforts; NRCC leaders Pete Sessions and Mike Rogers, along with Charles Boustany, are hosting a lunchtime fundraiser for Joe Cao today.

The Oklahoman:

U.S. Rep. Mary Fallin answered the question most delegates to today’s Oklahoma County Republican Convention wanted to know: She is running for governor in 2010.

When introducing Fallin, Pam Pollard, outgoing chairman of the Oklahoma County Republican Party, asked the two-term congresswoman whether she was forgoing a third term to seek the governor’s office.

“I’ve had to make some pretty tough decisions on behalf of our nation the last couple of years, but when it comes to making decisions about the future of Oklahoma and the leadership of Oklahoma and the governor of Oklahoma, my answer is yes,” Fallin said.

We have a decent Dem bench in Oklahoma, but the problem is that the two biggest guns, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins and Attorney General Drew Edmondson, are both seeking the Democratic gubernatorial nod. How rough could this one get?

On the House side of the equation, open seat fans might find Mary Fallin’s vacant seat of mild interest. While most of the rest of Oklahoma swung hard to the right last year (especially Dan Boren’s traditionally Democratic 2nd CD), the Oklahoma City-based 5th District actually lurched in the Democratic direction. While John Kerry got pounded by a 64-36 margin here in 2004, McCain’s margin tightened to 59-41 over Obama while holding Bush-like margins nearly everywhere else in the state.

Crisitunity:

As a wise man once pointed out, they don’t smoke marijuana in Muskogee. They don’t take their trips on LSD. They don’t burn their draft cards in the town square, because they like living right and being free.

Apparently the welcome mat’s out for bong-toting peacenik acid freaks in Oklahoma City now, though.

So who might run here for Team Blue? Might Andrew Rice be interested in a race like this?

(H/T: trowaman)