Tag: Blanche Lincoln

Research 2000 (4/26-28, likely voters, 4/12-14 in parens):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43 (45)

Bill Halter (D): 35 (33)

Other: 7 (6)

Undecided: 15 (16)

(MoE: ±5%)

Halter has made a bit of an ascent over the past couple of weeks, pulling within single digits of Lincoln for the first time after previously stalling at a gap of 12 points. Pay close attention to that “Other” number, which presumably are the votes that tea-flavored Democrat D.C. Morrison is targeting. If no one wins 50% on May 18th, this sucker is going nuclear to a runoff on June 8th. In that event, this could be a race where time may be on Halter’s side.

And for the general election match-ups:

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 42 (43)

John Boozman (R): 52 (50)

Undecided: 6 (7)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40 (41)

Gilbert Baker (R): 47 (48)

Undecided: 13 (11)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40 (42)

Kim Hendren (R): 50 (49)

Undecided: 10 (9)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 42 (43)

Curtis Coleman (R): 46 (46)

Undecided: 12 (11)

Bill Halter (D): 42 (41)

John Boozman (R): 47 (48)

Undecided: 11 (11)

Bill Halter (D): 43 (43)

Gilbert Baker (R): 44 (45)

Undecided: 13 (12)

Bill Halter (D): 43 (43)

Kim Hendren (R): 45 (46)

Undecided: 12 (11)

Bill Halter (D): 43 (44)

Curtis Coleman (R): 41 (43)

Undecided: 16 (13)

(MoE: ±4%)

Rasmussen also has some numbers that, while not looking anything quite like this, at least corroborate the idea that Halter is less of a general election liability than Lincoln.

• AR-Sen: Maybe it was yesterday’s performance in front of Carl Levin by all those Goldman Sachs execs, but Blanche Lincoln saw the handwriting on the wall and reversed course on her Goldman contributions, which she’d previously said she was keeping. She’s giving all that money to the Arkansas Hunger Relief Alliance.

• LA-Sen: Having tried to hammer David Vitter on all sorts of approaches (most of which seem to relate back to formaldehyde somehow — FEMA trailers, the dry cleaners’ lobby, and so on) and not gotten much traction, the Louisiana Democratic Party is going back to the well, to focus on the really easy-to-understand, obvious stuff: his patronizing of prostitutes. They have a new site up called “Forgotten Crimes” that revisits that sordid business.

• NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall is about to go on the TV airwaves starting Thursday, her first spot with less than a week to go before the primary. One of her advisors, Thomas Mills, also seems to have had a bit of a Homer Simpson moment of not saying the say-out-loud part and shouting the keep-it-in-your-head part; he said that opponent Cal Cunningham doesn’t have a chance in the general “because he’s a white male.”

• PA-Sen: An ill-timed Arlen Specter quote today is raising a few eyebrows; he told Allentown’s newspaper that “I might have helped the country more if I’d stayed a Republican.” Of course, all the selective quoting misses the meat of his statement, which is that he says he would have voted for HCR regardless, and was musing whether he would have been in a better position to bring aboard Republican moderates from within that camp. Meanwhile, it seems like people are only just now waking up to the fact that Pat Toomey isn’t unopposed on the GOP side; he still faces off against underfunded pro-life activist Peg Luksik. Luksik is finally getting in the news today, calling attention to Toomey’s pro-choice statements in the past.

• WI-Sen: When Tommy Thompson decided not to run for Senate, many eyes wandered over to conservative state Senator Ted Kanavas as a possible Republican candidate against Russ Feingold. Kanavas declined a bid today; the only potential candidate that the GOP seems to be waiting on is wealthy businessman Ron Johnson, who still seems to be making up his mind.

• MA-Gov: The RGA is taking a page from its successful race in New Jersey, where they spent a ton of money neutralizing independent candidate Chris Daggett. They’re facing an even bigger problem in Massachusetts in the form of Dem-turned-indie state Treasurer Tim Cahill, who’s not only spoiling the race for Charlie Baker, but in 2nd place ahead of Baker. With that in mind, the RGA is launching the first big ad buy of the race, and it’s an anti-Cahill, rather than anti-Deval Patrick, salvo.

• ME-Gov: The winner of the money chase in the Maine governor’s race is Republican businessman Les Otten; he says he’s raised $106K for his campaign, but also loaned himself $1.2 million. Republican Bruce Poliquin seems to have raised the most from others, among all the candidates; he’s raised $600K. The money issue may be less relevant in Maine than most states, though; the more-or-less frontrunners on each side of the aisle, Democratic state Sen. Libby Mitchell and Republican state Sen. Peter Mills, are both relying on public funding through the Maine Clean Election Act.

• WI-Gov: In the jostling to be Democrat Tom Barrett’s running mate in the Wisconsin gubernatorial race, there was a lot of action yesterday. Milwaukee alderman Tony Zielinski got out of the race and at the same time, state Assembly majority leader Thomas Nelson got in. Nelson is from Kaukauna (near Appleton); there may have been a push by Barrett (the Milwaukee mayor) to get some geographic diversity on the ticket.

• IN-05: Republican Dan Burton is one of Big Pharma’s least favorite Republicans; no surprise, as he’s one of the leading voices in the House for autism/vaccination crackpottery. Money from health and drug executives and PACs has been flowing into the campaigns of his primary opponents (especially state Rep. Mike Murphy and former state GOP chair Luke Messer). Unfortunately for Big Pharma, the badly-fractured opposition means that Burton looks poised to survive the May 4 primary even with a small plurality (as Indiana doesn’t have runoffs).

• WV-01: Rep. Alan Mollohan, who tends to keep less money in his campaign warchest than most people keep in their checking accounts, has suddenly turned into a fundraising beast in recent weeks (now that he suddenly has some motivation to do so, facing both a tough primary and some credible GOP opposition). He’s raised $32K in just the last two days after holding a fundraiser. Meanwhile, there’s no clear front-runner as to who his GOP opponent will be, although former state Rep. David McKinley and former state Sen. Sarah Minear are trading punches over their legislative track records.

• CA-LG: Abel Maldonado was sworn in as California’s new Lt. Governor today, finally filling the long-vacant position. On the downside, the Republican can now run for re-election as an incumbent, but on the plus side, his Democratic-leaning Senate seat (not just in terms of registration, but a 59/39 vote for Obama), SD-15, is up for grabs. Der Governator just set the special election date for the summertime (6/22 primary, 8/17 general), though, rather than to coincide with the November election, which may work to Republicans’ advantage in terms of lower turnout.

• Illinois: Hoping to avoid a repeat of the short-lived Pat Quinn/Scott Lee Cohen ticket (and various terrible pairings from the past as well), Illinois Democrats are changing the system so that a Governor and Lt. Governor candidate run together as a ticket even in the primary, rather than getting a post-primary shotgun wedding. The state Senate passed the bill 56-0 (as Republicans seem none too enthused about their 27-year-old dilettante running mate either) and heads to Pat Quinn for his signature. (Gee, I wonder how he feels about the issue?)

AR-Sen: The odious U.S. Chamber of Commerce is running ads on behalf of Blanche Lincoln, though they are refusing to say how much they are spending on their buy. As Salon says, with friends like these….

FL-Sen: Reid Wilson does some counting and finds that Arlen Specter has given back a rather amazing $1 million this election cycle, following his party switch. (Part of this was fueled by an aggressive campaign by the Club for Growth, which won FEC permission to contact Specter’s donors and push them to ask for refunds.) If Charlie Crist bails on the GOP, there’s no telling how much it might cost him financially, but the Specter precedent suggests it could be a hell of a lot.

IL-Sen: Even Mark Kirk is smart enough to skip an IL GOP fundraiser headlined by Sarah Palin.

IN-Sen: With the GOP primary just days away, Dan Coats has floated himself a $200K lifeline. I wonder if it will be enough.

NV-Sen: Fuck it – Sue Lowden knows that when you’re at the bottom of a 2,000-foot deep mineshaft, you should keep fucking digging until you’ve reached China. That’s why she is still advocating the barter system. While this prolonged episode of inspired insanity is not helping her win any elections, it is helping her become one of the most awesome candidates of 2010. Meanwhile, GOP primary opponent Danny Tarkanian is shish-kebobbing Lowden for her “poultry-based healthcare plan.”

OH-Sen: Quinnipiac should have a poll out of the Dem senate primary this morning.

PA-Sen: Michael J. Fox has cut an ad for Arlen Specter, citing his support for medical research. Fox had previously done an ad for Specter in 2004 as well.

FL-Gov: Mocking gun ownership? And pissing law enforcement off in the process? It sounds like a deranged GOP fantasy of something they think Dems would love to do, but in fact, the Republican Party of Florida is the guilty party here. They put out a shitty web video mocking CFO Alex Sink, who authorized the purchase of “advanced weaponry” for law enforcement officers who operate out of her agency. The state PBA blistered AG Bill McCollum (who posted the video on his website) for this offense, noting with irony that he’s the state’s chief law enforcement officer.

GA-Gov: Ex-Rep. Nathan Deal has come out in favor of Arizona’s draconian new immigration law, apparently the first Republican gubernatorial candidate in Georgia to do so. While Deal trails badly in the polls and isn’t very likely to win the GOP nod, in my opinion, he might succeed in driving the Republican field to the right on this issue.

NY-Gov: Steve Levy, the Dem-turned-Republican who is hoping to get buzz-sawed by Andrew Cuomo in the fall, is apparently “likely” to get the endorsement of the Queens Republican Party. In order to get a spot on the GOP ballot line, he needs the support of 51% of the state’s county-level parties (which are weighted by size), because he’s still a registered Democrat. He claims to be at around 45%, but it’s not clear if Queens is already included in that tally. If Levy pulls it off, this will be an extraordinary humiliation for Rick Lazio, a man I thought was incapable of being humiliated further.

FL-16: Shut up and go away.

ID-01: Some Very Wacky Dude dropped out of the GOP primary the other day. On his way out, Michael Chadwick attacked another candidate, Vaughn Ward, for representing “powerful special interest groups in New York City and Washington, D.C.” He also called Ward a “protégé and surrogate of the military-industrial-intelligence establishment” who will “vote to build up and sustain the Permanent War Machine.” I hadn’t realized this, but another Republican, Allan Salzberg, also bailed last week.

MI-01: Is it crowded in here, or is it just me? State Rep. Matt Gillard, a Democrat, is the latest to enter the race. He joins two other state Reps, Joel Sheltrown and Gary McDowell, as well as Connie Saltonstall, in the Dem primary field.

NY-14: Reshma Saujani may want to re-think her pro-bankster platform as she attempts to unseat Rep. Carolyn Maloney: A new Marist poll shows that even Manhattanites consider Wall Street to be “more of the problem” rather than “more of the solution” by a 49-31 margin.

NY-15: As Liz Benjamin observes, Assembly Adam Clayton Powell IV hasn’t gotten a whole lot of establishment backing in his attempt to unseat Rep. Charlie Rangel, but a few of his colleagues on the Assembly are hosting a fundraiser for him. Seems pretty minor to me, though.

NY-29: Republicans are citing a case from the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals in their attempt to force Gov. David Paterson to hold a special election to fill Eric Massa’s seat. The 6th Cir. ruled (PDF) that Art. I, § 2, ¶ 4 of the Constitution required then-Gov. Bob Taft of Ohio to hold a special election to fill Jim Traficant’s seat after he was expelled from Congress. However, there’s an old New York State Court of Appeals case, People v. Voorhis, 119 N.E. 106 (1918), which held otherwise – and if this goes before the federal courts in NY, the Second Circuit may very well rule differently from the Sixth.

Calendar: Be sure to bookmark SSP’s handy list of key primary & special elections in the very merry month of May.

AR-Sen: Bill Halter and Blanche Lincoln are having a debate on Friday, and Politico’s Dave Catanese, one of the moderators, is asking for questions. Click the link to find his email address or Twitter account. Meanwhile, Blanche Lincoln, who has refused to return $4,500 she received from Goldman Sachs’s PAC, has cancelled a fundraiser with the firm.

CO-Sen: Struggling GOP front-runner Jane Norton has booted her top advisors in favor of some new names, including one which may sound a bit familiar: Josh Penry. He’s Norton’s new campaign manager… and also happens to be the sitting state Sen. Minority Leader who briefly ran for governor last year before getting pushed aside for ex-Rep. Scott McInnis. The Colorado legislative session is set to end soon (May 12), so maybe this won’t interfere too much with Penry’s day job.

IN-Sen: This is crappy even for John Hostettler, who usually makes the likes of Larry Kissell and Carol Shea-Porter look like fundraising champs: He raised just $37K since joining the race and has just $10K in the bank. Meanwhile, the hapless Dan Coats got an endorsement from fellow Hoosier Mike Pence, the third-ranking Republican in the House, presidential wannabe, and all-around moran.

WA-Sen: Though Dino Rossi has been largely dragging his feet about a run against Sen. Patty Murray, the DSCC is concerned enough that they supposedly have sent a squad of researchers to Washington to start digging up oppo. But wouldn’t Gov. Christine Gregoire, who beat Rossi twice, already have a mile-long file on him? Meanwhile, Teabagger King Jim DeMint says he won’t endorse anyone against Rossi if he gets in the race – and if anything, seems excited to give Rossi his support.

FL-08: The cast of characters running in the GOP primary in Florida’s 8th CD has been an ever-changing, tumultuous mix – and the field is about to get even more shook-up. Former State Sen. Daniel Webster, who said no to a run back in October, looks like he’s ready to change his mind and hop into the race after all. But while Webster might have cleared the field half a year ago, no one seems interested in bowing out for him now. We can only pray for cat fud galore.

Census: The nationwide census participation rate hit 71% earlier this week, just a point below the 2000 response rate, which officials say is unexpectedly high, given what they perceive as a growing mistrust of government. The Census Bureau had budgeted for a response rate of only 67%, so we’ve already saved $425 million.

Polling: Gallup has a new midterm-focused blog up and running called “2010 Central.”

Fundraising: CQ has a great chart compiling Senate fundraising numbers for Q1. SSP will have its usual House chart up at the end of this month.

Wall Street: Is financial regulation finally the issue that will let Dems find their mojo? Back to Dave Catanese again, who says that Paul Hodes, Lee Fisher and – believe it or not – Charlie Melancon are all bashing their opponents for standing in the way of Wall Street reform. Melancon’s cruddy voting record has made it hard for the DSCC to push out a coordinated message on most issues (he’s voted against a lot of big-ticket Dem legislation), but maybe now we can all speak with one voice on this topic.

NV-Sen: Who runs Bartertown? Sue Lowden runs Bartertown!

• AR-Sen, IL-Sen: The hot potato that no one wants to get caught holding today is money from Goldman Sachs. Interestingly, Republican Mark Kirk is dumping his Goldman money, but Blanche Lincoln, who was trying to recast herself as anti-derivatives crusader last week, is saying there’s no reason for her to return contributions from Goldman employees. (She said she wouldn’t take money from companies receiving TARP funds, but Goldman never did.)

• CO-Sen: A subpar fundraising quarter from Andrew Romanoff, who’s going to have to expand beyond his base of the activists and party insiders if he’s going to knock off Michael Bennet in the Democratic primary. He brought in only $386K in the first quarter and spent most of that, bringing his CoH to $502K.

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist hasn’t pulled the trigger on switching over to an indie bid… yet… but he is making two things clear, in an interview with National Review Online. He’s not dropping out of the Senate race (“damn right, I’m staying in this race,” he says), and he’s not switching over to be a Democrat. He says he’s undecided about the indie bid, and has until April 30 to make up his mind.

• IN-Sen: Jim DeMint seems intent on putting his stamp on every contested Senate primary he can find, even if it doesn’t seem likely to amount to much of anything. Case in point, Indiana, where DeMint just endorsed state Sen. Marlin Stutzman in the GOP primary. Stutzman is woefully underfunded and likely to finish third in the primary, but he’s probably the most akin to DeMint, as DeMint isn’t likely to throw his support to worn-out establishment figure Dan Coats or John Hostettler, who seems to be throwing his lot in with the Paulists instead.

• NC-Sen: The state Teamsters previously backed Cal Cunningham in the Democratic Senate primary in North Carolina, but that’s prompted a bit of a fissure. The Charlotte-area Local 71 is instead endorsing Elaine Marshall, leery of Cunningham’s statement that seemed to disapprove of the “card check” provision of EFCA (although he subsequently did a partial back-track).

• OH-Sen: Jennifer Brunner’s fundraising seemed to improve a little, as she’s done more outreach to the netroots this quarter. “Little” is all relative though, as it’s still a day late and few million dollars short; she raised $144K in the first quarter and spent $125K, leaving her with $79K CoH.

• PA-Sen: If there’s one guy who knows how to do negative advertising, it’s Arlen Specter, and he turned both barrels on Joe Sestak today (who’s also launching his own first TV spot today), going after not only Sestak’s frequent House absences but even his Navy record. Meanwhile, Pat Toomey channels Mike Dukakis, breaking one of the cardinal rules of campaigning: no funny hats.

• UT-Sen: If a new poll that Dave Weigel got a glimpse of is to be believed, the incumbent Senator least likely to be coming back next year isn’t Blanche Lincoln or Harry Reid, but… Bob Bennett? A poll of 1,000 delegates to the Utah convention suggests that Bennett is in no position to even make it out of the convention onto the primary ballot: he has the support of only 15% of delegates and second-choice support of only 5% more. Mike Lee has 35% first-choice support and 22% second-choice support, so if Lee consolidates the support of minor candidates as they’re knocked off subsequent ballots and breaks the 60% threshold on the final two-way ballot, he could nail down the nomination right there. (Of course, considering how poorly Bennett is faring, he might not even make it to the final two-way ballot, running the risk of getting knocked off earlier.) Bennett’s only hope is to make it to the final ballot and keep Lee from getting 60% there, which would let him get to the primary, where he might be able to get a majority among the non-activist, name-rec-driven public.

• FL-10: I can always count on Daily Kos’s Steve Singiser to find that stray poll that fell down the slot between the washer and dryer that everyone else missed. He points to a several-week old poll from Dem pollster Anzalone-Liszt that shows Democratic state Sen. Charlie Justice in surprisingly good shape, considering the nature of the year, his underfunded candidacy, the senior-heavy population of the 10th, and most of all that he’s running against the unsinkable Bill Young. Of course, he’s still down 49-34, so this still may not be Justice’s year.

• MI-01: Republicans look like they’ve gotten a state Senator into the race to replace the retiring Rep. Bart Stupak: Jason Allen. Allen has one major liability, though: not only is he not from the Upper Peninsula, where the district’s cultural center of gravity is, but his Traverse City-area house isn’t even in the district. There is a bit of overlap between his legislative district and the 1st, at least.

• NY-23: Hot cat fud a-flyin’ in the 23rd! Matt Doheny, the investment banker who lost the GOP selection process to Dede Scozzafava for the special election despite bringing bushels of his own money to the table, is still angling for the GOP nomination despite the presence of Doug Hoffman. And Doheny is getting some traction among the local GOP establishment, many of whom still resent Hoffman and his Conservative Party candidacy for essentially screwing up what would have otherwise been a slam-dunk. Doheny picked up the endorsement of the Oneida County GOP, and the backing of individual GOP chairs in three other counties. That institutional divide can also be seen in their fundraising; Doheny raised $363K last quarter, while Hoffman, despite his 15 minutes of fame, raised only $13K.

• PA-07: Aggressively pursuing ballot challenges against, well, everyone else on the ballot seems to have paid off for Democratic state Rep. Bryan Lentz. His final remaining Democratic primary opposition, political consultant Teresa Touey, got removed from the ballot after a number of signatures were invalidated, leaving Lentz the only Dem in the primary. He’ll face Republican ex-US Attorney Pat Meehan in the general to replace Joe Sestak.

• NRCC: The NRCC upgraded its “Young Guns” program again in the wake of first-quarter reports, bumping about a dozen challengers to the middle “Contenders” tier and adding 40 more (pretty much anyone who showed a pulse in their FEC reports) to the bottom “On the Radar” tier. It’s a long, long list, so click the link to see all the names.

• DCCC: CQ’s Greg Giroux takes a look at how the various members of the DCCC’s Frontline program (House seats playing defense) fared in the last fundraising quarter. Gabrielle Giffords leads in CoH, while Alan Grayson had the biggest one-quarter haul. To no one’s surprise, Larry Kissell and Carol Shea-Porter bring up the rear.

• Redistricting: The Sacramento Bee has a detailed look at the money-bags interests behind dueling redistricting measures. A big Republican donor, Charles Munger, is behind proposed Proposition 14 in California, which will be on the June primary ballot and proposes a citizen redistricting panel for congressional districts similar to the one in place for legislative districts. However, (usually) Dem donor Haim Saban is trying to get an initiative in place to undo Prop 11’s panel for legislative redistricting and giving the power back to the legislature, which is odd, since he supported Prop 11 when it was on the ballot. One other good redistricting piece: Josh Goodman looks at population shifts in New York over the last decade, which are subtle compared with fast-growing states but suggest that more legislative power will be consolidated in New York City next decade with or without the rejiggering for counting prisoners.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (4/12-14, likely voters, 3/22-24 in parentheses):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 45 (44)

Bill Halter (D): 33 (31)

Other: 6 (0)

Undecided: 16 (25)

(MoE: ±5%)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43 (42)

John Boozman (R): 50 (49)

Undecided: 7 (9)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41 (41)

Gilbert Baker (R): 48 (49)

Undecided: 11 (10)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 42 (43)

Kim Hendren (R): 49 (48)

Undecided: 9 (9)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43 (44)

Curtis Coleman (R): 46 (47)

Undecided: 11 (9)

Bill Halter (D): 41 (40)

John Boozman (R): 48 (48)

Undecided: 11 (12)

Bill Halter (D): 43 (44)

Gilbert Baker (R): 45 (46)

Undecided: 12 (10)

Bill Halter (D): 43 (44)

Kim Hendren (R): 46 (45)

Undecided: 11 (11)

Bill Halter (D): 44 (45)

Curtis Coleman (R): 43 (44)

Undecided: 13 (11)

(MoE: ±4%)

There’s hardly any change here in the topline numbers from the R2K poll of Arkansas released last Friday, either in the primary, or especially in the general. (There were also Tom Cox matchups; I’m leaving them out, as he’s dropped out.) Undecideds are dropping in the primary, but the real gainer here is “other,” probably in the form of previously unknown conservadem D.C. Morrison.

The numbers to note in this poll are the approvals: Blanche Lincoln’s problem is that everyone has an opinion of her, and the majority of that is negative: 43/53. Bill Halter, by contrast, is at 47/30. 23% still haven’t formed an opinion of him, giving him room to grow. Lincoln, by contrast, has hit her ceiling and is upside down — not the conditions that get you re-elected.

Zata|3 (D) for Talk Business (4/14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 38

Bill Halter (D): 31

D.C. Morrison (D): 10

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±3%)

Zata|3 (yes, the pipe is actually part of their name) is yet another polling firm I’m not familiar with, but at least Talk Business is mixing it up – for their CD-level polls, they used a Republican outfit, while Zata is a Dem firm. Unhappy (of course) about these results, the Lincoln campaign did something we haven’t seen a whole lot of this cycle – they released a dueling internal. A Lincoln spokesbot also attacked the Talk Business poll for being “very unreliable” because it was automated (eyeroll).

Benenson Strategy Group (D) (PDF) for Blanche Lincoln (4/5-7, likely voters, no trendlines):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 53

Bill Halter (D): 35

D.C. Morrison (D): 4

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Note that I’m using the numbers with leaners as detailed in the PDF, rather than the non-leaner numbers cited in the press release, which have Lincoln up 51-34. Incidentally, D.C. Morrison is some weirdo conservative Paulist that I’d never heard of until, well, just now.

• Special elections/Runoffs: Believe it or not, it’s a busy election night tonight. Top of the list is the special election in FL-19, where the successor to Robert Wexler will be chosen. In this D+15 district in the more middle-class parts of the Gold Coast, the Democrat, state Sen. Ted Deutch, is heavily favored. The parties haven’t gotten involved, and Republican Ed Lynch (who lost a lopsided decision to Wexler in 2008) is hamstrung by the presence of independent right-wing candidate Jim McCormick.

It’s runoff day in Texas, with almost all the action on the GOP side. TX-17, between self-funder Bill Flores and 2008 candidate Rob Curnock, and TX-23, between self-funder Quico Canseco and ex-CIA agent William Hurd, are the marquee races as far as the U.S. House goes. There are also some GOP runoffs in some state House races, an interesting mixed bag of open seat succession races, teabaggish challenges to GOP incumbents, and challenges to vulnerable Dems. Finally, there’s a culture war clash between just-very conservative and super-duper conservative in two statewide contests: one for the Supreme Court (with Rick Green, the former state Rep. known for punching the guy who beat him in 2002, representing Team Crazy), and one for the Board of Education (between Marsha Farney and Brian Russell, with Russell the movement conservative here).

Finally, there’s some state legislature action in Massachusetts, California, and Florida. Primaries for two state Senate seats are in Massachusetts, the ones held by now-Sen. Scott Brown and now-disgraced Anthony Gallucio. This is the de facto election in Gallucio’s dark-blue seat, seeing as how no Republicans are running, but the winner between state Rep. Lida Harkins and doctor Peter Smulowitz in the Dem primary will face off against GOP state Rep. Richard Ross on May 11 to succeed Brown. In California, there are two legislative specials; using the California system, each one will likely head to a runoff (unless someone in the cluttered fields breaks 50%). Both seats will likely turn out to be holds: SD-37 is in Republican exurban Riverside County, while AD-43 is in Democratic Glendale in LA County. And in the Florida Panhandle, dark-red HD-04 should be an easy Republican hold.

• AR-Sen: Looks like Blanche Lincoln picked the wrong week to stop acting like a Democrat. She got seriously outraised by Bill Halter in the first quarter, earning $1.3 million (Halter got $2 mil). She also spent more than she earned, running a blitz of TV ads, probably to the tune of $2 million, as her cash on hand dropped $700K –although it’s still a high $4.7 million. Still no word yet from the race’s key Republicans.

• CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina filled in the last blank in the California Senate race; her fundraising total for the first quarter was $1.7 million, edging out Tom Campbell (who pulled in $1.6 million). Both GOPers lagged Barbara Boxer’s $2.4 million.

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist is still trying to find something that’ll stick to Marco Rubio, and he’s trying again to link ex-state House speaker Rubio to some of the other less savory elements among legislative leadership. He’s up with a new ad trying Rubio to another former speaker, Ray Sansom, who’s currently under indictment for charges of falsifying state budget items.

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias is lagging Mark Kirk on the cash front; he raised $1.2 million last quarter, compared with Kirk’s $2.2 million. Giannoulias didn’t release cash on hand figures, which may not be too impressive either considering that he had to fight through a competitive primary.

• NC-Sen (pdf): PPP looked at the primaries only in the North Carolina Senate race (they’re on May 4). On the Dem side, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham is still within striking distance of SoS Elaine Marshall; she leads Cunningham 23-17, with Kenneth Lewis at 9 and 5% for assorted minor candidates. (Last month, Marshall led Cunningham and Lewis 20-16-11.) On the GOP side, Richard Burr is at 67%, with his closest competition, Brad Jones, at 7.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Quinnipiac finds a lot of same-ol’-same-ol’ in the Empire State: Andrew Cuomo crushing, and Kirsten Gillibrand crushing anyone non-Pataki. Gillibrand trails non-candidate George Pataki 45-40 but leads actual candidate Bruce Blakeman 47-25 (none of the other third-tier GOPers get polled); she’s also sporting her highest-ever approvals, at 47/25. (Pataki beats Blakeman in a GOP primary, 64-15.) On the Governor’s side, Rick Lazio is still poised to be GOP nominee; he leads Steve Levy and Carl Paladino 34-11-11 (note that the poll was in the field prior to the whole bestiality thing). Andrew Cuomo dispatches Lazio 55-26, Levy 57-24, and Paladino 60-24.

• OH-Sen: I’d assumed Lee Fisher had been on the air before, but he’s just now launching his first TV spots of his campaign with the primary only weeks away (apparently marshaling his resources for the general). Fisher also pulled down the endorsement of Cleveland mayor Frank Johnson, although he didn’t gain the backing of his own home town’s Democratic party (in Shaker Heights), which instead declined to endorse.

• PA-Sen: Here’s a bit of a surprise: Joe Sestak succeeded in his ballot challenge, getting last-minute conservadem entrant Joe Vod Varka kicked out of the Democratic primary, setting up a two-man fight against Arlen Specter. If Sestak’s going to have any hope of knocking off Specter, he’ll need to consolidate every anti-Specter vote (and also not have the Slovak-American vote — a big segment in western Pennsylvania — split).

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold had a successful fundraising quarter, considering right now he’s only running against the specter of Tommy Thompson. Feingold earned $1.34 million, leaving him with $4.26 million CoH.

• FL-Gov: Rick Scott has decided, rather belatedly, to throw his hat in the ring in the Republican field in the Governor’s race. If the name’s familiar, he’s a former hospital-industry businessman who funded much of the initial anti-HCR astroturfing efforts via his organization Conservatives for Patient Rights. He’s sound teabaggish themes about establishment candidate AG Bill McCollum (despite McCollum taking the lead on the GOP AGs’ anti-HCR lawsuit). Considering that state Sen. Paula Dockery is already trying to run against McCollum from the right and getting no traction, it’s hard to see Scott going anywhere with this, though.

• NM-Gov: Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, the lone Dem in the race, is dominating the fundraising front; she raised $1.1 million in the six-month reporting period and has $2.6 million CoH. Among the GOPers, former state party chair Allen Weh leads both in money raised ($691K, although $500K was a personal loan) and CoH ($544K). Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez raised $428K and sits on $364K CoH.

• PA-Gov: Here’s a blow to, well, everybody in the Democratic field; after not being able to find two-thirds support for anybody, the AFL-CIO won’t be endorsing any particular candidate in the Dem primary. Former Philadephia city controller Jonathan Saidel got their Lt. Gov. endorsement.

• AL-05: Party-switching Rep. Parker Griffith (most recently in the news for forgetting his party-switch and billing the DCCC for expenditures) surprised his GOP primary opponents at a debate by asking them sign a unity pledge that the losers of the primary would campaign for the winner in November. No thanks, said both Mo Brooks and Les Philip.

• DE-AL: Looks like wealthy self-funder Michelle Rollins, the NRCC’s preferred recruit in the race, has some competition on the big bucks front in the GOP primary. Real estate developer Glen Urquhart just announced that he has $512K in his account (of course, $500K of that came from his own pocket).

• FL-08: Alan Grayson had another big fundraising quarter, thanks in large part to netroots moneybombing (especially his March event which brought in $500K). He raised $803K in the last three months, bringing his CoH total to $1.5 million (along with the possibility of writing checks to himself).

• HI-01: CQ has an interesting piece on HI-01 that focuses primarily on just how difficult it is (especially for “mainland” pollsters) to poll in Hawaii. With only two polls of this race having seen light of day so far, the main takeaway may be that anyone’s guess is as good as mine where the race stands.

• MI-01: One of the top Republicans on everyone’s candidate list for the newly-opened seat in MI-01 has said that he won’t run. State House minority leader Kevin Elsenheimer said he won’t run, even though he’s termed out of the House and needs something else to do. (Elsenheimer, from the Traverse City area, is disadvantaged by not coming from the Upper Peninsula portion of the district.)

• MS-04: Here’s one other eye-catching fundraising note: a Dem incumbent who got outraised by Republican opposition previously considered inconsequential. Rep. Gene Taylor raised $41K and has $221K CoH, while GOP state Rep. Steven Palazzo raised $125K and has at least $100K CoH. Let’s hope Taylor doesn’t hit the “snooze” button for another quarter. National Journal’s latest fundraising outline also has noteworthy numbers from Charlie Dent (PA-15), Dan Debicella (CT-04), and Rick Crawford (AR-01).

• Redistricting: With the Fair Districts redistricting initiative seeming destined to make the ballot in Florida, now the Republican-controlled legislature is trying to get its own redistricting initiative on the ballot, in an apparent effort to clarify (or gut) the Fair Districts proposals. The Senate’s proposal deals with the thorny questions of VRA-mandated districts and communities of interest, which aren’t addressed in satisfactory manner by the original initiatives, which forbid designing districts in a manner that is favorable to one party or the other.

• Demographics: Josh Goodman has an interesting look at population change in Texas, similar to some work we’ve done at SSP over the last few years; he finds that while Texas’s largest counties are becoming swingier, its fastest-growing counties are still pretty solidly Republican (although the growth in these counties is in demographics that aren’t likely Republican). Of course, the parts of the state that are becoming less and less of the state, percentage-wise — the rural parts — have become even more conservative than the fast-growing exurbs, so in a way that’s progress too.

AR-Sen: The Communications Workers of America, a union supporting Bill Halter, is firing back with an ad on black radio to combat Blanche Lincoln’s bullshit spot claiming she “stood with our president to pass healthcare reform.” CWA’s ad is in heavy rotation around the state, running “50 times a day” around Little Rock. They also have a new TV ad out, but no word on the size of the buy.

AZ-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has given its first endorsement of the 2010 cycle to Sen. John McCain – but apparently cash ain’t attached. I guess the CoC, the grand doyenne of “cheap labor conservatives,” doesn’t believe Johnny Mac’s nativist turn is for real. Given what a fraud McCain has shown himself to be from top to bottom, I guess this makes sense.

CA-Sen: No, the reason John McCain can’t be found in Arizona isn’t because they took him “to a farm upstate.” He’s out in California, campaigning with Carly Fiorina.

IN-Sen: It’s not just that Dan Coats has an unsavory record as a lobbyist – his voting record seems pretty out-of-step with the crazies who make up the modern GOP base. John Hostettler is hitting Coats (albeit in the form of a web video) for things like his votes in favor of the assault weapons ban, the Brady Bill, and the Clinton crime bill – a set of votes tradmed analysts usually like to ascribe many 1994 Dem losses to.

UT-Sen: While they haven’t picked a specific horse to back yet, the Club for Growth has nonetheless spent $133K against Sen. Bob Bennett.

AZ-Gov: Democrat Terry Goddard has finally made his gubernatorial bid official.

AL-02, AL-05: GOP State Sen. Harri Anne Smith, who endorsed Dem Bobby Bright for re-election, has been kicked off her own re-election ballot by the Alabama Republican Party in retaliation. Smith lost the GOP primary in 2008 to Jay Love and apparently is still smarting over that – but this has to sting quite a bit more. Smith hasn’t decided if she’ll run as an independent instead. (Switch! Switch!) Meanwhile, the AL GOP said that turncoat Parker Griffith could stay on the Republican ballot, despite a challenge thanks to his party-switching ways.

FL-08: I’ve totally lost track of how many Republicans are trying to challenge Rep. Alan Grayson, so what’s one more? Wealthy businessman Ross Beiling, owner of a medical parts supplier, is throwing his shrimp on the barbie.

MI-07: While two Michigan Republicans have endorsed ex-Rep. Tim Walberg in his comeback bid, five others are staying neutral in the primary, which also includes Brian Rooney, younger brother of Rep. Tom Rooney (FL-16).

NY-05: Dan Halloran, a Republican who won a Dem-held seat on the NYC City Council last year, is weighing a challenge to Rep. Gary Ackerman. Halloran, a practicing Theodist, thinks he can make Ackerman pay a price for voting in favor of healthcare reform. Ackerman, for his part, has $1.1 million on hand and the support of the Queens Independence Party. This district also went 63-36 for Obama (but notably, that’s the same percentage that Kerry got, suggesting there was something of a “conservative white ethnic New Yorkers for McCain” effect here).

NY-13: The United Food and Commercial Workers Local 1500 is backing Rep. Mike McMahon, in spite of his vote against healthcare reform, citing his support of the Employee Free Choice Act. Speaking of the CWA again, though, a day ago, its local vice president, Chris Shelton, called McMahon “the Judas from Staten Island.” Personally, I think that phrase is overused, and I’m going to start calling traitors “Brutuses.”

Across the Pond: Our friends in the U.K. have scheduled their elections for May 6th. Imagine if we only had one-month campaigns here!

Research 2000 for the Daily Kos (3/22-24, likely voters, 11/30-12/2/2009 in parens):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 44 (42)

Bill Halter (D): 31 (26)

Undecided: 25 (32)

(MoE: ±5%)

That’s some nice early movement for Halter, and a clear indication of Lincoln’s vulnerability in the Democratic primary. Among Democrats, Halter’s favorable rating has shot up to 68-10 from 55-11, while Lincoln’s have remained relatively static at 62-34 (from 62-34 in December). Halter’s greatest argument in the primary, though, may be his stronger starting position in the general election. Among all likely voters, Halter’s favorable rating is 46-27 (up from 36-25) compared to Lincoln’s 42-52 spread. In fact, in most of the marquee general match-ups, Halter fares better than Lincoln:

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 42

John Boozman (R): 49

Bill Halter (D): 40

John Boozman (R): 48

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43 (46)

Kim Hendren (R): 48 (30)

Bill Halter (D): 44 (36)

Kim Hendren (R): 45 (31)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41 (41)

Gilbert Baker (R): 49 (42)

Bill Halter (D): 44 (34)

Gilbert Baker (R): 46 (42)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 44 (44)

Curtis Coleman (R): 47 (39)

Bill Halter (D): 45 (35)

Curtis Coleman (R): 44 (40)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43 (45)

Tom Cox (R): 47 (31)

Bill Halter (D): 45 (36)

Tom Cox (R): 43 (32)

(MoE: ±4%)

Markos writes that Halter’s outsider profile makes him “the best possible candidate Democrats can nominate in Arkansas”. I’m not yet sure that I’m entirely convinced that Halter is the best imaginable candidate for this race, but the arguments in favor of keeping Blanche for another crack at bat are getting more feeble by the day. Certainly Halter is worth the gamble at this point.

Meanwhile, my ex-boss The Sarge makes a good catch: Lincoln is trashing “Washington D.C. unions” for backing Halter, yet she aggressively courted the support of those very same unions just a few short months ago.

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen