NY-13: Straniere nominated for judgeship, race gets crazier

So there are three ways Bob from Manhattan can get off of the ballot, death, moving out of the state and being nominated for a judgeship.  Last night he was nominated, possibly against his desire, for a judgeship position.  From the NY Post;


Republican Robert Straniere, who’s running for Rep. Vito Fossella’s seat, was nominated as a Manhattan judicial candidate last night – a move that could pave the way for the disgraced congressman to get back on the ballot and run for re-election.

Several Republican sources said the New York County GOP made the nomination with the understanding that Straniere would accept it.

But Straniere, a former Staten Island assemblyman who’s been at odds with fellow Republicans, hasn’t been contacted about the judicial post and “unequivocally” plans to turn it down, his spokesman told The Post.

There are very mixed signals here. Earlier last week there was polling going around indicating Fossella or someone close to him were looking to see if he could win re-election, if only he could find a way back on the ballot.  We had a quick New York civics lesson on how you replace a nominee on the ballot when Paul Atanasio, the Conservative Party nominee in this race was nominated for a judicial position, allowing the state party to then replace him with some no name.

Bob Straniere is saying he doesn’t want the judgeship and is running for Congress.  Bob can simply not accept it and this farce of a Fossella comeback is dead.  It looks like this is the most likely situation, but certainly if Fossella wants in you never know what offer Straniere might get.  

This simply could just be a lot of political pressure and maneuvering by a party that  has lost its leadership and is falling apart or this potentially, and I say this with much hesitation, could open up the seat for Fossella to be renominated.  I don’t see a path for Fossella to win if he goes down this road.  He does not have the Conservative Party line and at this point can not get it.  He has a trial date later this Fall in October for his DWI arrest.  It would take immense arrogance on his part to jump back in.  Since the Republican Party has been a joke in this race for months now I am not ruling it out.

stay tuned…

14 GOP House Reps in the Northeast – How many after November?

The Northeast (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island & Vermont) has been sharply trending towards the Democratic party for some years now. Increasingly at a State and Federal level Republicans are finding it harder to get elected in the Northeast, be they conservatives or moderates, particularly in statewide races. And this years election seems certain to thin out their ranks even further.

We now have 7/9 Governors, 14/18 Senators and 51/65 House Districts!

Below the line for a look at the 14 GOP held House Races in the Northeast in 2008.

Well now 14 members of that most endangered of species the Northeast House Republican. And can you believe 5 open races in more or less Democrat friendly districts – WOW!

And so on with the show:

CT-04 – D+5 – Shays

It is appropriate that the first race we look at is one of the most competitive, CT-04, pitting Chris Shays against our guy Jim Himes. This one will be a barnburner which makes it curious that I can’t find any polling of the district. Located in the Southwest part of the state it overlaps the New York media market and many people who live in the 4th commute to NYC for work.

As the only GOP survivor in New England Shays seems to be popular but as the Iraq war becomes increasingly unpopular Shays’ fervent support for the war and the President himself makes this one race to watch. Both candidates are cashed up and either could win.

CT-04 is one of 8 districts carried by Kerry in 2004 occupied by a House Republican.  

DE-AL – D+7 – Castle

GOP incumbent Mike Castle is considered safe and I see no reason to not beileve that. Whilst Dem Karen Hartley-Nagle will run a solid campaign this district is unlikely to flip this time around. Of more interest to me is whether Castle will switch parties after the election or retire in 2010 (He had a stroke in 2006). Or if Lt Gov John Carney or Attorney General Beau Biden have a crack Castle may be vulnerable if he runs again in 2010.

DE-AL is another of the 8 districts that Kerry carried in 2004 occupied by a House Republican and in fact this is the district with the highest Kerry vote – 57% – occupied by a Republican.

NJ-02 – D+4.0 – LoBiondo

LoBiondo doged a bullet when Democratic State Senator Jeff Van Drew opted not to run against him in this district that Bush won by less than 1% and that is occupied by 2 Democratic State Senators.

Our candidate David Kurkowski will have a real slog to get this race on the radar with the open races in the 3rd and 7th. Look for Van Drew to run and win in 2010.

NJ-03 – D+3.3 – OPEN

The first of our open races this one sees Democratic State Senator John Adler running against Chris Myers. Bush won this district 51-49 and Adler has a massive COH advantage – 1.46M to 155K. Polling indicates a tight race but I expect Adler to win comfortably as he is well known through the district and genuinely popular.

NJ-04 – R+0.9 – Smith

This central Jersey district was won by Bush in 2004 56 to 44 but was won by Gore in 2000 50 to 46. With a plethora of other competitive races around this one has not been on the radar and probably won’t be. Josh Zeitz is to be applauded for having a go but 2008 probably won’t be his year. 2010 maybe?

NJ-05 – R+4 – Garrett

A district that shouldn’t be on the radar is so largely because our guy Dennis Shulman is a blind rabbi who has been getting a lot of media attention. Won by Bush in 2004 57-43 this is one of two districts in New Jersey that are considered generically safe for Repubs. If Shulman can pull it off then expect a lot of house districts to be picked up by us on election day. Shulman is down 3 to 1 in COH which is ok but he really needs to step up the fundraising.

NJ-07 – R+1 – OPEN

Another open race this one pits 2006 candidate Democrat Linda Stender against State Senator Leonard Lance. Michael Hsing, a conservative republican is also running as an independent which will take votes from Lance. Both camps have released polls that show their candidate is winning. Despite the fact that Bush won this district 53-47 in 2004 I expect Stender to win at her second time at bat as she only lost by about 1000 votes in 2006. Stender has a massive COH advantage – 1.2M-88K btw and that can only help!

NJ-11 – R+6 – Frelinghuysen

This district that Bush won 58-42 in 2004 is the safest GOP in New Jersey and unlikely to flip. Our guy, 2006 candidate Tom Wyka, is putting in a valiant effort but will most likely fall short. This district is a rarity in the Northeast, a safe GOP district.

NY-03 – D+2.1 – King

This Long Island based district is not on the radar for 2008. Democrat Graham Long hasn’t set the world on fire and won’t with all of the oxygen being sucked up by the 13th. This race may have been competitive if 2006 candidate Dave Mejias had run again be he is running for the State Senate instead 🙁 Look for Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi or Mejias to run in 2010. King has said that he will running in the gubernatorial race in 2010 so we should pick this one up then.

NY-13 – D+1 – OPEN

No race in the country has been more of a soap opera than NY-13. I will spare you the details and say simply this. Democratic candidate Michael McMahon will win and win big over a divided dispirited Republican party and their 3rd tier candidate. McMahon is even endorsed by GOP powerbroker Guy Molinari. And he lives on Staten Island a vital prerequisite in this district unlike his republican opponent. Chalk this one up as a win for team blue.

NY-23 – R+0.2 – McHugh

John McHugh is a safe bet for re-election here over a low profile candidate, Mile Oot. The attenton in upstate New York will all be focused on the 25th, 26th and 29th. Sheesh even the unions endorse McHugh who seems genuinely popular. He was rumoured to be retiring in 2008 and may do so in 2010. Either way expect a competitive race here in 2010 not 2008.

NY-25 – D+3 – OPEN

Democrat Dan Maffei never stopped running since 2006 and is considered very likely to win this open seat over Republican Dale Sweetland. He has about $1M COH and of course upstate New York is rapidly bluing. The one poll I have seen had Maffei only a point in front but that was back in April. I think that the NRCC has given up here and with good reason, Dan’s gonna win. NY-25 is one of 8 districts carried by Kerry in 2004 occupied by a House Republican.  

NY-26 – R+3 – OPEN

There was a huge shock here when Democrat Kryzan won a bloody primary over DCCC preferred Jon Powers. Nonetheless Kryzan came out reasonably clean and may well pull it off in a district where Bush won 55-43 in 2004. Kryzan needs to step up her fundraising a lot but again the DCCC has weighed with advertising expenditure. When we see some polling we will get a better sense of how this one is playing but this district is still very much in play as Gopper Chris Lee hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. Watch this space.

NY-29 – R+5 – Kuhl

Democratic 2006 candidate Eric Massa is back for a rematch in this upstate district that is the most GOP friendly district in New York. Bush won 56-42 in 2004. Don’t discount Massa though as incumbent Randy “shotgun” Kuhl is certainly vulnerable (and repellant). Haven’t seen any public polling here but the candidates are basically at parity in terms of COH and the DCCC is stumping up for advertising big time. Expect a close race.

So whilst the Northeast won’t provide much excitement at the Presidential level this year the House races (and Senate BTW) will be all the fun of the fair. I think that we will probably win between 4 and 7 of these races further decimating an already shredded GOP. The Northeast is well on the way to becoming a one party region and this year will see further shifts in that direction.

NY-13: Bloomberg Endorses McMahon

The Staten Island Advance:

Mayor Michael Bloomberg today endorsed City Councilman Michael McMahon in his bid to replace Rep Vito Fossella (R-Staten Island/Brooklyn) in the House of Representatives.

“Staten Island and Southern Brooklyn need a strong voice in Congress to get results in transportation, health care and the economy,” Bloomberg said. “During the last seven years, Mike and I have worked together to deliver just those kind of results: Increasing ferry service, developing a workable solid waste plan after decades of stagnation, holding the line on government spending, and saving surpluses for tougher times like the ones we’re in now.

“I am proud to endorse Mike McMahon for Congress, and urge all of the voters of Staten Island and Southern Brooklyn to send him to Washington this November.”

Take it to the bank. SSP currently rates this race as Likely Democratic.

(H/T: NY-13 Blog)

NY-13: Atanasio Bails – Could Fossella Run?

What next? In New York’s 13th Congressional District, there’s always something next.

Here’s the first curveball: Just days after word leaked out that disgraced GOP Rep. Vito Fossella was exploring a comeback attempt this fall, Conservative Party nominee Paul Atanasio is dropping out and seeking a judicial nomination:

Brooklyn Conservative chairman Jerry Kassar has told the Advance that congressional candidate Paul Atanasio, who is bailing out of the campaign, will have his name put into nomination for a Brooklyn state Supreme Court judgeship at the party’s judicial nominating convention tonight.

If Atanasio’s nomination is approved, which looks to be a formality, the coveted Conservative line in the race would officially become vacant, with the party’s state executive committee set to make a new endorsement next week.

Could this be the opening that Vito needs in order to get himself back on the ballot? It’s there for the taking, if the Conservative “bigwigs” want to play that game of tiddly winks. Whatever the case, they will most certainly not endorse Republican Bob Straniere:

The Brooklyn party organization has already rejected Democratic candidate Michael McMahon, and Kassar today said, “I don’t see any interest among my members in recommending to the state party that we endorse [GOP candidate] Bob Straniere.”

“That would do nothing for us,” said Kassar. “He hasn’t really put together much of a campaign despite winning the Republican primary.”

And just when things couldn’t get nuttier, defeated GOP primary candidate Jamshad “Jim” Wyne is running as a write-in candidate.

(Tip o’ the cap: NY-13 Blog)

NY-13: Fossella Wants Back?

This is a truly astonishing race — one that has proved extraordinary in its ability to keep getting weirder by the week. The latest curveball:

Don’t count out disgraced Rep. Vito Fossella just yet.

Four months after a DWI arrest and revelations about an out-of-wedlock child forced him to forgo a run for reelection this fall, the shamefaced Staten Island Republican is looking for a way back on the ballot.

“It’s absolutely true,” a source close to Fossella said of rumors that Fossella and his allies are quietly plotting his comeback.

Voters in the 13th Congressional District got polling calls about Fossella this weekend, the Staten Island Advance reported Sunday.

The only problem for Vino Vito? The ballot is already set. Just like Jon Powers on the Working Families Party line in NY-26, Robert Straniere, Paul Atanasio, and Carmine Morano have the Republican, Conservative, and Independence lines locked. As the NY Daily News writes, the only way to pull a switcheroo would be for one of these candidates to get nominated to run for a judgeship (or move out of state or pull a Frank Powers). The Straniere campaign says “no way”, and I’m inclined to believe them. After being tarred and feathered by the Staten Island GOP establishment repeatedly, does the hot dog king of Manhattan strike you as being a team player? Didn’t think so.

(H/T: Jeremiah the Messiah)

UPDATE: Fossella says that he’s “not a candidate“, but The Hill calls this an “ambiguous denial”.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Democratic.

9/9 Primary Results Round-up

A quick round-up of last night’s congressional and gubernatorial primaries:

  • DE-Gov (D): State Treasurer Jack Markell edged Lt. Gov. John Carney by 1,700 votes for the Democratic nomination to succeed retiring Gov. Ruth Ann Minner. Markell will face Republican Bill Lee in November.
  • DE-AL (D): Children’s rights activist Karen Hartley-Nagle beat Mike Miller by a 55-34 margin for the right to take on GOP Rep. Mike Castle in November. Kossack Jerry “Possum” Northington gobbled up 10% of the vote.
  • MN-Sen (D): Al Franken jogged past attorney Priscilla Lord Faris by a 65-30 margin for the Dem nomination against Norm Coleman.
  • MN-01 (R): Physician Brian Davis schooled state Sen. Dick Day by 67-33 for the right to challenge Democratic Rep. Tim Walz. I guess it just wasn’t a Dick Day Afternoon.
  • NH-01 (R): Former Rep. Jeb Bradley squeaked by former state Health Commissioner John Stephen by a 51-47 margin for the GOP nod against frosh Dem Rep. Carol Shea Porter.
  • NH-02 (R): Radio personality Jennifer Horn beat state Sen. Bob Clegg by a 40-34 margin for the dubious prize of a GOP nomination in this D+2.7 district. Horn faces steep odds against Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes in November.
  • NY-10 (D): Crusty Democratic Rep. Ed Towns held back a primary challenge from former reality TV star Kevin Powell, winning with a comfortable 67-33 spread.
  • NY-13 (D & R): NYC Councilman Mike McMahon easily dispatched ’06 candidate Steve Harrison by a 75-25 margin for the Dem nod for this open seat. In what has been the most pathetic offering of candidates by the Staten Island GOP in decades, unpopular ex-Assemblyman Robert Straniere bounced unpopular physician Jamhsad Wyne by 59-41.
  • NY-21 (D): Ex-Assemblyman Paul Tonko nabbed the Dem nod to replace retiring Rep. Mike McNulty in this D+8.7 district by 39-30 over former Hillary Clinton aide Tracey Brooks.
  • NY-26 (D): I believe this is called a “murder-suicide”. Iraq Vet Jon Powers and perennial candidate (and billionaire nativist industrialist) Jack Davis were trounced by unheralded environmental attorney Alice Kryzan, who won the Dem nod for this open seat with 42% of the vote to Powers’ 36% and Davis’ 23%. Kryzan will go up against businessman Chris Lee, who is partially self-funding his campaign, in November.

NY, MN Primary Results Thread

Polls have now closed in New York and Minnesota. Lots of sideshows here, but NY-26 is by far the biggest marquee race of the night.

RESULTS: NY (AP) | MN-01 (AP) | MN-Sen (AP)

11:38PM: The AP has called it for Brian Davis in MN-01. Al Franken’s at 66%-30%, which doesn’t strike me as so hot.

10:53PM: It’s now official — Alice Kryzan is the Dem nominee in NY-26. She leads by 1200 votes with 4% outstanding.

10:42PM: Amusing tidbit of the day: The loser of the Dem primary in NY-13, Steven Harrison, claimed more votes than the winner of the GOP primary, Robert “Weiner King of Manhattan” Straniere, by 3,805 to 3,591 with 98% reporting.

10:36PM: Checking in on Minnesota, Franken leads by 68%-28% over Priscilla Lord Faris with 40% reporting. In MN-01, Brian Davis leads Dick Day by 68%-32% with 38% of precincts reporting. I guess it wasn’t a Dick Day afternoon.

10:22PM: 91% in, and Kryzan leads by 1300 votes. I think we can stick a fork in this one. With Powers still on the ballot as the Working Families Party candidate, I think we can strike this district off the map of Democratic pick-up opportunities.

10:10PM: 85% in, and Kryzan still leads by 995 votes. Tonko with a big 42%-29% lead over Brooks in NY-21.

10:04PM: 41%-36% now, but the gap is now 1000 votes for Kryzan, with 82% reporting.

10:00PM: Powers just closed the gap a bit, but Kryzan still leads by 42%-36% (900 votes) with 69% reporting.

9:57PM: In NY-21, Paul Tonko has huge lead over Tracey Brooks with 11% reporting: 59%-19% (1200 votes).

9:44PM: 41% reporting now, and Kryzan is building her lead: 45%-32%-23% (a 1300 vote margin over Powers). On the one hand, it’s lovely to see Davis in third so far, but Kryzan is not exactly an A-game general election candidate.

9:39PM: 25% in now for NY-26, and Kryzan still leads: 43%-33%-24% (Powers-Davis). Could Powers and Davis have bludgeoned each other to death, allowing Kryzan to slip up the middle? Over in NY-10, Towns is back up with a 20% lead with 22% reporting.

9:33PM: Over in NY-26, Kryzan has an early lead with 22% reporting: 43% Kryzan, 33% Powers, 24% Davis.

9:29PM ET: With 9% reporting in NY-13, McMahon and Straniere have comfortable early leads. Over in NY-10, with 3% in, Kevin Powell leads Edolphus Towns by 10% (43 votes).

DE, MN, NH, NY Primary Predictions Thread

There are a whole lot of primaries that will be decided tonight. Most of them are sideshows, but a few of them are real races. Here’s everything of remote interest:

  • DE-Gov (D): Jack Markell vs. John Carney
  • DE-AL (D): Moose vs. Squirrel Jerry “Possum” Northington vs. Karen Hartley-Nagle and Mike Miller
  • MN-Sen (D): Al Franken vs. Priscilla Lord Faris
  • MN-01 (R): Dick Day vs. Brian Davis
  • NH-01 (R): Jeb Bradley vs. John Stephen
  • NH-02 (R): Jennifer Horn vs. Bob Clegg and various losers
  • NY-10 (D): Ed Towns vs. Kevin Powell
  • NY-13 (D & R): Mike McMahon vs. Stephen Harrison; Jamshad Wyne vs. Robert “Weiner King of Manhattan” Straniere
  • NY-21 (D): Paul Tonko vs. Tracey Brooks vs. Phil Steck vs. Darius Shahinfar
  • NY-26 (D): Crazy Jack Davis vs. Alice Kryzan vs. John Powers

Got any predictions?

September Election Preview: Races Worth Watching

The light at the end of the tunnel is upon us: the last batch of primaries occurs during the first few weeks of September. While there’s only one last good shot at bouncing an incumbent (LA-02), there is still a wide variety of tasty races in this smorgasbord.

September 2

AZ-01: As Rick Renzi looks forward to his golden years in prison retirement, there are battles on each side of the aisle to replace him. On the Democratic side, the frontrunner is former state representative Ann Kirkpatrick. There haven’t been any polls, but Kirkpatrick has thoroughly dominated the fundraising chase. Two of her opponents can’t be ruled out, though, especially given their connections to the Native American community (Natives make up nearly one-quarter of this district which encompasses much of rural Arizona, by far the most of any congressional district): environmental attorney Howard Shanker, who has often represented the tribes in court, and former TV reporter Mary Kim Titla, who as an Apache would be the first-ever Native American woman in Congress.

On the Republican side, ultra-conservative mining industry lobbyist Sydney Hay somehow got stuck carrying the party’s flag after more prominent (and electable) recruits demurred. Hay’s fundraising has been sub-par, giving attorney/ex-State Dept. official Sandra Livingstone an opening to surprise her. The odds still favor Hay… which may favor the Dems this November, given Hay’s unlikeability, the narrow lean of the R+2 district, and the stench left behind by Renzi.

AZ-05: Freshman Democratic Rep. Harry Mitchell might have been endangered in this suburban R+4 district in a less Dem-friendly year, having drawn a slew of credible challengers in the Republican primary. Former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert seems to have the best shot, based on fundraising and having the largest constitutency. However, ex-city councilor Susan Bitter Smith, ex-state senator Laura Knaperek, ex-state representative Mark Anderson, and lobbyist Jim Ogsbury are all in this thing, and without a runoff, one of the lesser candidates could easily sneak by, if they have a more cohesive bloc.

September 6 (?)

LA-02: Here’s the big opportunity for Democrats to clean house, by ridding themselves of their most corrupt member, Bill Jefferson. In a purely one-on-one race, Jefferson might be facing some long odds (although maybe not, given Louisiana residents’ tendency to be a little more forgiving of their pols’ indiscretions than in most places). Unfortunately, Jefferson faces an extremely crowded field, with the anti-Jefferson vote split among six other candidates (some of whom might actually be pro-Jefferson Trojan horses?): state representative Cedric Richmond, Jefferson Parish councilor Byron Lee, New Orleans city councilor James Carter, former New Orleans city councilor Troy Carter, Ray Nagin aide Kenya Smith, and former TV anchor Helena Moreno. Jefferson also has the edge in very cold, very hard cash on hand, although his pre-primary numbers showed slackening fundraising.

The good news is, what with a corrupt incumbent and a raft of challengers, this is almost certainly going to a runoff (which will be held October 4). I have absolutely no idea who will be opposing Jefferson in the runoff… and remember that the runoff didn’t work so well in 2006, when then-state representative Karen Carter Peterson lost to Jefferson despite the corruption allegations having surfaced (prior to his indictment, however). The runoff is the de facto general in this D+28 district.

LA-04: There’s a three-way fight among the top-tier Republicans in this battle to replace the retiring GOP Rep. Jim McCrery in this Shreveport-based R+7 district. The fundraising advantage seems to go to former Bossier Chamber of Commerce president Jeff Thompson and to self-funding trucking company executive Chris Gorman. However, several internal polls give a sizable edge to physician John Fleming.

The good news (for us) is that each of these guys is a relative unknown, and going up in November against Paul Carmouche, who has been the district attorney in Caddo Parish (home of Shreveport) for literally decades, and who faces only token primary opposition. With the likelihood of none of the three GOPers hitting 50%, and the nastiness getting dragged out for another month till a runoff, Carmouche looks to be in the catbird’s seat.

September 9

DE-Gov: The main event in Delaware is the Democratic primary in the governor’s race, between Lt. Gov. John Carney and Treasurer Jack Markell. (Either one is expected to coast in November, against retired judge Bill Lee.) Both seem like solid Dems; Carney is more associated with labor and party insiders, and Markell is considered more of a ‘fresh’ face, despite an endorsement from the DLC last year. This becomes more interesting when considering that the winner may be the one who appoints Joe Biden’s successor (although that could also be Ruth Ann Minner’s last act), and the gubernatorial loser may be the one who gets to be the next senator.

DE-AL: On paper, this should be a competitive race; at D+6, it’s the most Democratic-leaning district still occupied by a Republican (Mike Castle). Barring something weird happening, though, Castle will continue to occupy this seat for at least the next two years. This is worth mentioning mostly because this primary gets a lot of netroots focus; veterinarian and Kossack Jerry Northington is running, as well as ’06 independent candidate Karen Hartley-Nagle and accountant Mike Miller.

MN-Sen: Al Franken pretty much locked this nomination down long ago at the DFL convention, which is ordinarily the end game in Minnesota. However, attorney Priscilla Lord Faris is hanging around the margins, raising arguments about Franken’s electibility and otherwise trying to bleed him to death with paper cuts. Don’t look for Faris to come close to winning, but Franken’s numbers in the primary might help us gauge just how vulnerable he is to the whole ‘juicy porn’ line of attack in the general.

MN-01: There’s still a duel going on in this R+1 Rochester-based district for the right to get flattened by freshman Dem Tim Walz. State senator Dick Day seemed an early favorite for the GOP nomination, but Mayo Clinic physician Brian Davis has run an aggressive campaign well to the right of the affable Day, and with his sizable fundraising edge (much of which may be out of his own pocket) may shoot past Day. Either way, the nasty primary only serves to bolster Walz, who’s on the verge of securing this seat for good.

NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter was one of the biggest Democratic upsets in the 2006 cycle, and with mediocre polling numbers, a desire to hold the DCCC at arm’s length, and a potential rematch against the narrowly-defeated ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley, she may be one of this cycle’s most endangered Dem incumbents. However, the good news is that Bradley has been stumbling around in his own primary, against former New Hampshire Health and Human Services Director John Stephen. Stephen has been hitting the more moderate Bradley hard from the right, and has drawn even with him in fundraising. Both lag Shea-Porter’s cash stash (for a woman who hates to raise money, she sure raises money). Even if Bradley makes it through the primary, his empty wallet and mud-spattered suit will complicate efforts to retake this D+0 seat.

NH-02: Of the two new New Hampshire representatives from 2006, conventional wisdom has always viewed Paul Hodes as the safer one. Talk radio host Jennifer Horn is the challenger who’s probably drawn the most attention from the rest of the right-wing punditsphere (gee, I wonder why?), and she leads the fundraising chase. State senator Bob Clegg and former congressional aide Grant Bosse are still in the mix. Between the seat’s D+3 lean and Hodes’ huge cash advantage, though, any of them are likely to be no more than a speed bump for Hodes (as seen by our recent upgrade of this race to Safe Dem).

NY-10: At D+41, in this mostly African-American seat in Brooklyn, the primary is the main event. Edolphus Towns, who has held this seat since 1982, survived a three-way challenge in 2006, giving him the whiff of vulnerability. (Indeed, he’s seen stiff primary fights in other years as well.) This year, he faces another spirited challenge, this time from writer and community organizer Kevin Powell (best known for playing the role of ‘angry black guy’ on the very first season of MTV’s The Real World back in 1992). Towns has survived higher-profile challenges before, but with his checkered past (voting for bankruptcy reform and CAFTA, snuggling up to black Republican J.C. Watts) and Powell’s celebrity-fueled run, this is one to watch.

NY-13: This race has been an SSP staple since May. Rather than give you a blow-by-blow recap, I’ll simply redirect anyone not familiar with this race to SSP’s Timeline of GOP Disasters, as this race seems to make up a large portion of that epic work. Starting with Vito Fossella’s retirement upon his admission of his affair and love child, the GOP has with each subsequent incident fallen deeper and deeper into a rabbit hole of embarrassing absurdity.

As it stands, there is still an ostensibly competitive primary on each side of the aisle in this D+1 seat. On the Dem side, city councilor Mike McMahon is poised to win over attorney Steve Harrison. (McMahon is considered more conservative than Harrison, and Harrison has the advantage of being the ’06 candidate, but McMahon has the gigantic advantage of being from Staten Island, unlike Brooklynite Harrison, which is key in this parochial SI-based district.) McMahon has a large cash edge and DCCC backing.

On the GOP side, after every credible candidate (and some incredible ones as well) passed on the race, we’re down to a primary between Manhattan resident Robert Straniere (always referred to as “ex-Assemblyman/hot dog restauranteur”) and Jamshad “Jim” Wyne, treasurer of the Staten Island GOP. Both Straniere and Wyne are widely detested, have no money, and to make matters worse (for them), are now bashing each other incessantly.

NY-21: This race is a little reminiscent of CO-02: a big slate of liberal Democrats vying to take over a safe Democratic (D+9) seat being vacated by long-timer Mike McNulty. There are at least four credible candidates here: ex-Assemblyman Paul Tonko, former Hillary Clinton aide Tracey Brooks, Albany County Legislator Phil Steck, and former congressional aide Darius Shahinfar. Steck received the endorsement of the Albany County Democratic Committee, but Tonko seems to have a big edge in name recognition, based on an internal poll giving him a sizable lead. Tonko has key labor endorsements such as the SEIU; Brooks has the NOW endorsement; Steck and Shahinfar are endorsers of the Responsible Plan. In other words, we have four pretty solid progressives; just pick the flavor you like.

NY-26: This R+3 open seat in the Buffalo suburbs, left vacant when Tom Reynolds decided to hit the eject button, looked to present one more easy pickup for the New York Dems. Charismatic Iraq War vet Jon Powers quickly moved to grab the endorsement of all the Democratic Party organizations in each county. However, there’s one huge obstacle between Powers and the nomination: crazy tycoon Jack Davis, who, with his single-minded focus on fair trade and illegal immigrants, was possibly the only person who could have wrested defeat from the jaws of victory against Reynolds in 2006 at the height of the Mark Foley scandal. Davis, if you’ll recall, was the vanquisher of the Millionaire’s Amendment, freeing him to spend willy-nilly to buy this race. He was last heard from worrying about how immigrants will lead to the Second Civil War.

Although Powers has been a strong fundraiser, Davis has still been outspending Powers lately, purely out of his own pocket, and pummeling Powers over the alleged inefficacy of Powers’ charitable efforts for Iraqi kids. Either outcome doesn’t look good: Davis buying the primary and being cannon fodder in the general against the well-funded and uncontroversial Republican businessman Chris Lee, or a wounded and depleted Powers staggering into the general. (There’s a third candidate, “environmental” lawyer Alice Kryzan, but it doesn’t seem she has enough of a base to sneak unnoticed past the other two.)

NY-13: Straniere Gets Ugly – Real Ugly

Life gets worse and worse every week for Staten Island Republicans, whose once-firm grip on New York’s 13th congressional district is now all but limp. Things are going less than swimmingly in the GOP primary to replace disgraced retiring Rep. Vito Fossella, as the two leading pretenders can’t stay away from each other’s throats.

Jamshad Wyne, the Staten GOP finance chair, claims that Straniere asked him to engage in illegal campaign financing for his failed 2001 campaign for borough president:

Wyne — who uses the name Dr. Jamshad Wyne professionally — said Straniere asked him to take $5,000 of his personal cash and disburse it to relatives who would, in turn, write checks in the amounts of $250 or $200 to Straniere for Borough President, thereby maximizing the amount of matching funds Straniere could receive from the city Campaign Finance Board.

Straniere adamantly denied the claim, calling it “outrageous.”

Wyne said he never followed through on what he maintains was Straniere’s request.

Such a practice is illegal; in recent years two politicians, one running for Queens borough president and the other for public advocate, were jailed for promoting such a scheme.

For his part, Straniere has decided to go all out racist:

Meanwhile, during an interview yesterday, Straniere said Wyne has been using the name “Jim” on the campaign trail because “he is trying to remake himself into something other than who is. He obviously doesn’t want people to know he is Pakistani and a Muslim.”

Stay classy, Republicans.