Tag: Tom Foley

The party conventions were held in Colorado and Connecticut over the weekend. In Colorado, on the Senate side, things played out pretty much as expected. For the Dems, Andrew Romanoff won the convention over appointed incumbent Michael Bennet. The 60-40 margin, though, wasn’t a dominant performance; it saw him gain only a small amount of ground among party insiders since the precinct-level caucuses, and it enables Bennet to qualify for the ballot without having to collect signatures.

For the GOP, Weld Co. DA and Tea Party fave Ken Buck won 77% (with 15% for some dude Clive Tidwell), certainly a dominant performance, but that’s largely because ex-LG Jane Norton and ex-state Sen. Tom Wiens, lacking the necessary activist backing, put no effort into contesting the convention. Perhaps the most consequential thing that happened wasn’t until today, when Wiens, who’d been expected to forge ahead with collecting signatures to get on the ballot, pulled a sudden about-face today and dropped out of the race. In another blow to the Norton campaign, Wiens threw his backing to Buck.

The real surprise in Colorado came on the gubernatorial side, where teabagging businessman Dan Maes wound up claiming the top spot over ex-Rep. Scott McInnis, the expected frontrunner. Maes won 49.3-48.9, so McInnis is on the ballot, but this to shake up his projected air of inevitability. On the Dem side, Denver mayor John Hickenlooper had no real opposition en route to the nomination. Further down the ballot, the GOP settled things in CO-03 and CO-04. State Rep. Cory Gardner is the nominee in the 4th, as he pulled in 61%; neither opponent, Dean Madere or Tom Lucero, broke 30% and do not plan to petition onto the ballot. In the 3rd, both state Rep. Scott Tipton and attorney Bob McConnell will be on the primary ballot; they tied at 45%.

In the Nutmeg State, the Democratic Senate nomination turned out to be drama-free despite Richard Blumenthal’s self-inflicted wounds this week. Opponent Merrick Alpert dropped out midway through the process and endorsed Blumenthal, who was then nominated by acclaim. Nevertheless, Blumenthal went further than his press conference in offering a mea culpa over the weekend, following some prodding from fellow Dems, actually saying “I am sorry” in an e-mailed statement. Blumenthal also sent around his own internal poll from GQR, which was taken on the 19th and 20th, shortly after the “in Vietnam” story broke and before the air started to leak out of the NYT piece. It had him beating Linda McMahon 55-40, quite a difference from the Rasmussen poll from the same time period.

In the GOP Senate derby, ex-Rep. Rob Simmons was given the edge by most observers, thanks to his long local political career. Well, the convention participants were wowed by Linda McMahon’s money instead, as well as her ability to pull the wool over the New York Times’ eyes; they went for McMahon 52-45 (with the balance to Peter Schiff). Despite earlier allusions to dropping out if he didn’t win the convention, Simmons now promises to fight on to the primary, which is generating rumbles of concern from party insiders.

The Governor’s race had feisty battles on both sides, won by ex-Stamford mayor Dan Malloy over Ned Lamont on the Dem side, and ex-Ambassador Tom Foley over Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele for the GOP. Despite losing nearly 2-to-1 at the convo, Lamont leads in polls of actual voters and, with a lot of wealth at his disposal, plans to fight on in the primary. On the GOP side, Foley won with about 50% but Fedele and businessman Oz Griebel both cleared the 15% hurdle for the primary; it was the end of the line, though, for long-ago ex-Rep. Larry DeNardis.

Finally, a few GOP House fields in Connecticut got a little more clarity. In the 5th, both state Sen. Sam Caliguri and ex-state military affairs director Justin Bernier made the primary ballot, although Caliguri’s 67% puts him in the driver’s seat. In the 4th, state Sen. Dan Debicella nearly monopolized the vote; Thom Hermann, Rick Torres, and Rob Merkle all plan to seek signatures to qualify. And in the 2nd, former TV news anchor Janet Peckinpaugh, as well as Doug Dubitsky and Daria Novak, all cleared the 15% mark to get on the ballot.

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist, who’s been trying to sound more conservative for the last few months, seems to have changed tack again, trying to sound, well, independent… and that’s leaving many speculating that it’s a prelude to, say, an independent bid for the Senate. Crist is now portraying himself as standing up for “the people” against the GOP legislature, as he just vetoed a leadership fund bill and is poised to veto a controversial bill that would abolish teacher tenure and tie teacher pay to test scores. Polling has shown Crist in so-so shape in a three-way race, but it’s still a better bet than the GOP primary is for him at this point. Crist has until April 30 to decide whether to pull the trigger on an indie bid.

• LA-Sen: Bayou Buzz is saying that Republican incumbent David Vitter may still wind up with some conservative opposition in the Senate race, despite having scared off all the top-tier possible opponents. Former state Sen. (and 2006 Insurance Comm. loser) James Cain, who’s well-connected with the religious right, is “seriously considering” making the race. Cain says he’d prefer to run in the GOP primary, but is also considering running as a teabagger independent — which, if it splits the right-wing vote, could make things considerably more interesting for Dem Charlie Melancon.

• UT-Sen: Freshman GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz, whose name had briefly been associated with a possible primary challenge to Bob Bennett, still doesn’t think much of Bennett’s chances at the state convention, even though Bennett faces lower-caliber opposition than Chaffetz. Chaffetz drew some parallels to the same dynamic that helped him beat long-time Rep. Chris Cannon in 2008, and Cannon concurs, saying that the same movement has evolved since then.

• FL-Gov: I hinted at this yesterday, but these numbers are worth elaborating: Republican AG Bill McCollum raised $1.4 million last quarter, compared with $1.1 for Democratic CFO Alex Sink, suggesting that the same momentum change that we’ve seen in polls lately may be playing out in fundraising too. Sink still leads in receipts over the election cycle, and has the edge in cash on hand (she has $5 million).

• GA-Gov: One other gubernatorial race where the Democratic candidate is fundraising like mad is Georgia; ex-Gov. Roy Barnes raised over $900K this quarter and is sitting on $2.84 million CoH. That puts him well ahead of the top Republican, Insurance Comm. John Oxendine, who reports $2 million CoH but only raised $75K during the last quarter. Republican ex-SoS Karen Handel raised $400K in Q1, but is sitting on nearly $600K.

• PA-Gov: Little-known state Sen. Anthony Williams raised some eyebrows with his big cash haul last quarter ($1.7 million for the quarter), but it’s a little less amazing now that it’s been revealed that much of that came from one huge contribution from a not-very-appealing source: $750K came from Democrats for Education Reform, who are a school-choice group. Another interesting co-inkee-dink: Williams’ campaign manager is, in his spare time, president of a Philly charter school.

• CT-05: Sam Caligiuri and Justin Bernier have gotten some wealthy company in the GOP primary in the 5th, from businessman Mark Greenberg. He says he’s pledging $1 million of his own money for the race (although that may come in installments, as he currently reports $403K in his account).

• FL-08: You may recall our amazement the other week to find that there’s a Whig running in FL-25… well, apparently they’re proliferating all over Florida, as now there’s one running in FL-08 as well. CQ talks briefly with Steve Gerritzen, who plans to go all William Henry Harrison on Alan Grayson’s ass.

• MI-01: Sounds like Bart Stupak was speaking mostly out of frustration when he said he was considering retirement a few days ago, or maybe he got the attention he was seeking in response. In today’s Detroit Free Press, he’s sounding much likelier to run, saying he’s “not ready to quit yet,” and that he has “every intention” of running again. He still has to have his biannual sitdown with his family about whether to do it or not, though.

• NH-02: Sorry, Charlie… you’re going to need more money than that. GOP Ex-Rep. Charlie Bass reported $155K, with $262K CoH, in his quest to reclaim his old seat. Dem Katrina Swett also reported yesterday, with $325K last quarter and over $1 million CoH (mostly leftover from her Senate bid that never happened). Bass also lags Ann McLane Kuster, who reported $285K last quarter.

• PA-07: State Rep. Bryan Lentz seemed to have a pretty easy path to the nomination in the 7th, and that path got even easier, with the dropout of environmental lawyer Gail Conner from the Dem field. That leaves only political consultant Teresa Touey in the way, and Lentz is challenging her signatures.

• SC-01: Carroll Campbell III got a big endorsement in his bid for the GOP nomination to replace retiring Rep. Henry Brown, from ex-Gov. David Beasley. That makes two ex-Govs backing him (as it would be pretty awkward if he didn’t have his dad’s endorsement). (UPDATE: Ooops, my apologies. The elder Campbell died several years ago.)

• CO-AG: This is a little down in the weeds, but it may be the first big test of whether joining the frivolous Republican AG lawsuit against the feds over HCR is a net positive or negative. Republican AG John Suthers just drew a top-tier challenge, from Democratic Boulder County DA Stan Garnett. Garnett was motivated to get in largely by Suthers’ participation in the lawsuit.

• NARAL: NARAL rolled out a bunch of endorsements for Democrats going on the offense in House races. Most interestingly, they waded into the LA-02 primary, endorsing state Rep. Cedric Richmond (who still faces fellow state Rep. Juan LaFonta; the winner faces Joe Cao in November). They also supported Dan Seals (IL-10), Paula Brooks (OH-12), Suzan DelBene (WA-08), and Steve Pougnet (CA-45).

• Redistricting: If you like big charts with lots of population numbers and vote percentages (and if you’re at SSP, you probably do), here’s a post for you. Josh Goodman looks at California population changes on a county-by-county level and finds heaviest growth in Republican-leaning counties, but the growth is mostly Hispanic. Here’s the nice succinct conclusion, which I think applies everywhere and not just California:

The most rapid growth is in Republican places, but, in many cases, it’s among people who are likely to be Democratic voters. What that might mean is that this round of redistricting will produce short-term Republican gains, but, over the long haul, these Republican places won’t be Republican anymore.

• WATN?: Mahoney, Foley, and Spitzer, oh my! All three losers are in the news today as they publicly ruminate about comebacks. Ex-Rep. Tim Mahoney says people have been urging him to run for his old seat, which he lost to Republican Tom Rooney (and with Chris Craft out, hell, he may actually be their best option). Meanwhile, the guy Mahoney beat, Tom Mark Foley, has been gauging interest for his own comeback, running in 2011 for West Palm Beach mayor. Rounding out the trifecta of sex scandal survivors, Eliot Spitzer is still keeping his name in front of the press, saying that Kirsten Gillibrand presents an appealing target but sounding more plausibly interested in a run for state Comptroller.

• NC-Sen: The newest Elon University poll of North Carolina finds that, as with most pollsters, that Richard Burr is strangely anonymous for a Senator: he has a favorable of 34/17. His best-known Democratic competitor, SoS Elaine Marshall, is at 18/8. The poll doesn’t contain head-to-heads, and also, bear in mind that it only polls “residents,” not even registered voters, which would explain the super-low awareness.

• TX-Sen: 20 of Texas’s Republican House members wrote a letter to Kay Bailey Hutchison, asking her to reconsider and stay on as Senator. (Recall that she planned to resign once she was done “fighting health care.”) I wonder if the letter was signed by Joe Barton, who was pretty public about his desire to take over that seat back when a resignation seemed likelier.

• UT-Sen: Tonight’s the night we get our first hard impression of what degree of trouble Bob Bennett is in. Tonight are neighborhood caucuses, where delegates to the state convention are elected. A particularly ultra-conservative-skewing convention could pose some trouble to Bennett, although with so many GOP challengers, it seems likely no one will hit the 60% mark at the convention needed to avoid a primary.

• CT-Gov: You might recognize these numbers from last week; we’ve been waiting for Quinnipiac to release general election numbers in the Governor’s race but they just don’t seem to be forthcoming, so here are their primary numbers. On the Dem side, Ned Lamont is leading at 28, followed by former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy at 18, Mary Glassman at 4, Rudy Marconi at 2, and Juan Figueroa at 1. (Susan Bysiewicz has a big edge over George Jepsen, 54-10, in the AG primary, despite concerns about her eligibility for the job.) On the GOP side, Tom Foley is dominating at 30, followed by Lt. Gov Michael Fedele collapsing down to 4, Danbury mayor Mark Boughton at 4, ex-Rep. Larry DeNardis at 2, and Oz Griebel and Jeff Wright at 2.

• CA-Gov: Wondering how Meg Whitman pulled into a huge lead in the primary and a small lead in the general in California governor’s race? She’s spent a mind-boggling $27 million on her race so far this year (for a total of $46 million), compared with Steve Poizner’s $3 million and Jerry Brown’s $142K.

• OR-Gov: Former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley is the first candidate to hit the TV airwaves in the Oregon governor’s race so far, touting his “outsider” credentials.

• PA-Gov: AG Tom Corbett, who oh just coincidentally happens to be running for Governor this year, finally got a conviction in the Bonusgate investigation, against former state Rep. Mike Veon and several of his staffers. The timing is certainly helpful to Corbett, for whom the investigation has been dragging out and the possibility of mistrials (or no convictions before November) was starting to loom. Trials against several other former Democratic House leaders, including GOPer John Perzel and Dem Bill DeWeese, are still in the pipeline.

• WY-Gov: The Democrats are about to land a gubernatorial candidate: attorney Paul Hickey, who plans an announcement later this week. If the name is familiar, he’s the son of former Governor J.J. Hickey. Democratic State Sen. Mike Massie hasn’t ruled out a run yet either, although he may run for one of the statewide offices.

• IL-11: Here’s one more district that hasn’t been high on people’s watch lists but will need to be monitored, at least if a new internal poll from Republican pollster POS is to be believed. They find their patron, Adam Kinzinger, leading freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson 44-38.

• MA-09: With primary challenges moving onto the radar against HCR “no” votes Jason Altmire and Mike Arcuri, another one may be taking shape: Needham Town Meeting member (and, well, college classmate of mine) Harmony Wu has pulled papers for the race and is gauging local sentiment for a primary run against Stephen Lynch.

• NY-01: Whoever faces off against Tim Bishop for the Republicans is going to have to fight through an arduous primary to get there. Any hopes of an easy coronation for Randy Altschuler seem to have vaporized, as now Chris Cox (Republican party insider and Nixon grandson) is setting his own Wall Street-powered fundraising operation in motion. And a 3rd option, former SEC prosecutor George Demos, has had his own fundraising success.

• NY-20: One more Republican, Queensbury town supervisor Dan Stec, bailed out of the field today, suggesting that the GOP is finally coalescing behind retired Col. Chris Gibson as a standard-bearer against freshman Dem Rep. Scott Murphy, in what’s one of their slowest races to take shape.

• OK-05: Finally, we have a Democrat on tap for the open seat race in Oklahoma’s dark-red 5th, where there’s already a half-dozen GOPers jousting. Tom Guild is secretary of the Oklahoma County Democratic Party, and was a poli sci professor at Univ. of Central Oklahoma for many years.

• PA-11: Things got easier for Lou Barletta in the race in the 11th, where his Republican primary challenger, Chris Paige dropped out, citing family concerns. Paige, an attorney, was underfunded but had delivered some surprisingly-hard hits to Barletta, especially on Barletta’s signature issue of immigration.

• SC-01: The Club for Growth weighed into another GOP primary in a reddish open seat, endorsing state Rep. Tim Scott. Scott faces off in the primary against several well-known last names: Carroll Campbell III and Paul Thurmond.

• HCR: The Republican pivot from health care reform to health care repeal has some implications in the gubernatorial races. Rep. Peter Hoekstra is going full-on repeal, stopping by Sunday’s teabagger rally to pledge to fight that battle. It’s also showing up in a number of races where the Republican AG is running for Governor and joined the multi-AG suit against HCR on easily-rebuttable 10th Amendment grounds (hint to teabaggers: read Scalia’s opinion in Raich) – many in dark-red states where it probably helps more than hurts (like Henry McMaster in South Carolina). There are a few blue state AGs involved, though, like Tom Corbett (although he probably feels like he has a safety cushion to do so, thanks to his Bonusgate-related popularity). Most puzzling, though, is Washington’s Rob McKenna, who got where he is only by acting moderate. Throwing off his well-maintained moderate mask and joining forces with the wackjob likes of Ken Cuccinelli seems like a weird gamble for his widely-expected 2012 run, where success is utterly dependent on making inroads among suburban moderates.

Quinnipiac (1/14-19, registered voters, 11/10 in parentheses):

Ned Lamont (D): 41

Michael Fedele (R): 32

Undecided: 23

Ned Lamont (D): 38

Tom Foley (R): 36

Undecided: 21

Dan Malloy (D): 37

Michael Fedele (R): 31

Undecided: 27

Dan Malloy (D): 37

Tom Foley (R): 33

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±2.5%)

Ned Lamont (D): 27 (23)

Dan Malloy (D): 11 (9)

Jim Amman (D): 5 (3)

Mary Glassman (D): 4 (NA)

Gary LeBeau (D): 2 (2)

Rudy Marconi (D): 1 (NA)

Juan Figueroa (D): 1 (NA)

Susan Bysiewicz (D): NA (26)

Undecided: 44 (33)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Tom Foley (R): 17

Michael Fedele (R): 8

Mark Boughton (R): 6

Larry DeNardis (R): 4

Oz Griebel (R): 2

Undecided: 59

(MoE: ±4.5%)

A whole lot of things have gotten shaken up since Quinnipiac last polled their home state’s governor’s race: incumbent GOPer Jodi Rell decided to retire, a herd of iffy Republicans surfaced to take her place, and just recently, presumed Democratic frontrunner SoS Susan Bysiewicz pulled her bid (most likely because Joe Lieberman presents a tastier target in 2012). The only trendlines salvageable from last time around are the Democratic primary, where there’s a bit of an uptick for both Ned Lamont (who’s basically left as the frontrunner now) and ex-Stamford mayor Dan Malloy, but many of the former Bysiewicz votes seem to be “undecided” for now. (Quinnipiac also looks at the AG race’s primary, where Bysiewicz is whomping state Sen. George Jepsen, 62-10.) Of course, the Democratic primary voters look incredibly decisive compared with Republicans, where every candidate is struggling to get out of the single digits.

The general election matchups aren’t quite as nice-looking as recent polls by PPP and R2K, where Lamont was putting up double-digit edges against all Republicans. (Quinnipiac points out the irony of how a Lamont/Foley matchup would pit two never-before-elected zillionaires from Greenwich against each other, and there seems to be some voter ambivalence about that matchup.) Still, Democrats have to be pleased that even with Bysiewicz’s unexpected exit from the race that they still have the upper hand.

RaceTracker Wiki: CT-Gov

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• CO-Sen: Republican Senate candidate Jane Norton has finally realized that she might be her own worst enemy. Having reeled off a serious of gaffes and wtf? moments that were captured on tape in recent months (sitting silently while a speaker called Barack Obama a “Muslim,” saying that Obama cares more about terrorists’ rights than protecting the country, and just recently saying that government shouldn’t be involved in health care at all), she’s decided that, rather than stopping saying dumb things, the best approach is to have that nasty Democratic tracker banned from all her appearances.

• NY-Sen-B: Ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. has gotten a green light of sorts (or at least a shrug of the shoulders) from David Paterson regarding a primary challenge, who said it was “OK” but that he might look for a different state to do it in. A new piece in the NYT today (who seem to have been interested in promoting his candidacy) may do Ford more harm than good, filled with details of helicopter flights and chauffeured cars that help paint him as an out-of-touch Wall Streeter, not exactly a position you want to run from these days (maybe most damning: “He has breakfast most mornings at the Regency Hotel on Park Avenue, and he receives regular pedicures. (He described them as treatment for a foot condition.)” Ford also might need to explain to the electorate when he decided that Kirsten Gillibrand was no longer acceptable; it turns out that he gave her $1,000 just seven months ago. Finally, with Ford making clear that he’s going to run against health care reform, and awash in a history of pro-life pronouncements, PPP’s Tom Jensen looks at New York exit polls and finds a way for Ford to get to 25% in the primary, but wonders where that other 75% is going to come from.

• PA-Sen: The Joe Sestak candidacy continues to have its desired effect: Arlen Specter just changed his position on the Dawn Johnsen nomination, and will vote for her confirmation, taking it to 60 votes. One possible unintended consequence, though: the more Sestak succeeds at pushing Specter to the left, the less opportunity for differentiating himself in (and thus a basis for winning) the Democratic primary.

• TX-Sen, TX-Gov: We have dueling rumors coming out of Texas, regarding Kay Bailey Hutchison. Fox’s El Paso affiliate is reporting that KBH no longer plans to resign her Senate seat, either before or after the Republican gubernatorial primary. However, a spokesperson from the KBH camp is now saying that report is wrong, and she will resign only when the health care and cap-and-trade debates are over.

• AZ-Gov: A serious primary challenge just hit Arizona Governor Jan Brewer in the eye, like a big pizza pie. State Treasurer Dean Martin put an end to the speculation and officially announced his candidacy today. (There’s still no report on whether CA-41’s Rep. Jerry Lewis will offer his endorsement, or if their feud is still continuing.) While Martin is the highest-profile GOPer to challenge Brewer so far, he’ll still have to fight his way through a crowd of other anti-Brewers, perhaps most prominently former state party chair John Munger.

• CT-Gov: It looks like the Republican gubernatorial field in Connecticut will be limited to Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele, rich guy Tom Foley, and now Larry DeNardis, a 71-year-old who most recently was president of the University of New Haven, but served one term in the U.S. House, representing New Haven from 1980 to his defeat in 1982. (Little known bit of trivia: the guy DeNardis defeated in that House race? Joe Lieberman.) State Senate minority leader John McKinney (who previously demurred from a CT-04 run) just reversed course and said he wouldn’t run; state House minority leader Lawrence Cafero, another potential candidate, also recently said ‘no.’

• IA-Gov: Here’s an iceberg on the horizon for the seemingly unsinkable Terry Branstad campaign: poor relations with the state’s religious right, coming to a head now with the prominent Iowa Family PAC endorsing rival Bob Vander Plaats and having unkind words for the insufficiently conservative Branstad, whom they won’t endorse for the general even if he is the nominee. (Discussion underway in desmoinesdem‘s diary.)

• MA-Gov: A day after PPP polled him as a Democratic fill-in for Deval Patrick in the gubernatorial race, SoS William Galvin said that, no, he wasn’t planning on launching a primary challenge against Patrick. Galvin, who’s been SoS since 1994, instead said he might be interested in moving to AG, assuming Martha Coakley becomes Senator.

• SC-Gov: Well, that was kind of anticlimactic. L’affaire Sanford wrapped up today with a quick censure vote of Gov. Mark Sanford that passed the state House by a 102-11 margin.

• FL-25: A longer CQ piece on the House landscape in Florida has an interesting tidbit that suggests that former Miami mayor Manny Diaz, who would have been a top-tier contender in the 25th had he run, won’t be running. Diaz has taken a fellowship appointment at Harvard’s JFK School, which would probably preclude a run. After Democrats running strong in all three Cuban-American districts in 2008, it looks like free passes will be handed out this year.

• MD-04: All previous indications had been that a primary challenge from the right against Rep. Donna Edwards was a go, but instead Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey had announced he won’t pursue that. He’d also been linked with possible runs for county executive and state Senate, so his next step is uncertain.

• NC-08: PPP adds a little information from yesterday’s poll of the 8th, which had freshman Rep. Larry Kissell comfortable against his GOP opposition. The possibility of a primary from the left, from attorney Chris Kouri, has been floated, but Kissell dispatches Kouri easily, 49-15. Only 29% of Democratic respondents in the district want Kissell replaced with someone more progressive, and 27% think Congressional Dems are too liberal vs. 12% who think they’re too conservative, suggesting (in tandem with his general election strength) that his occasional breaks from the party line may be helping more than hurting him.

• NH-02: Gonna make you Swett! The long-rumored  candidacy by wealthy Lieberdem Katrina Swett may be finally getting off the ground, as an invitation to a Jan. 31 Swett event says “Come meet our next U.S. Congresswoman!”

• OH-02: After looking into the possibility of an independent run against Rep. Jean Schmidt and probably Dem nominee David Krikorian, now Surya Yalimanchili (aka that guy from “The Apprentice”) says he’ll get into the Democratic primary instead, saying that his focus on jobs and economic growth is better served there.

• SC-01: After renewed interest in the race following the retirement announcement of GOP Rep. Henry Brown, 2008 candidate Linda Ketner has finally decided against another run. She instead asked her supporters to take a look at Robert Burton, already an announced candidate. On the GOP side, state Sen. Larry Grooms, a frequent Mark Sanford nemesis, cut short his long-shot gubernatorial bid, boxed out by bigger names like Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer and AG Henry McMaster. This might presage a run in the still-developing GOP field in the 1st, but he said that’s “unlikely” and he’d rather concentrate on the state Senate.

• TX-04: Add one more serious teabagger primary challenge to the ever-growing list, this time a challenge in the super-dark-red 4th to long-time Rep. Ralph Hall. Jerry Ray Hall (no relation, apparently) is throwing $350K of his own money into race in the fast-approaching March primary. It’s unclear what his beef with the conservative other Hall is (he was a Democrat until 2004 – albeit the most conservative one in the House — so that’s probably good enough).

• VA-11: Rep. Gerry Connolly (by virtue of his Dem-leaning suburban district) still seems the safest of the three Virginia freshman, but things got harder for him with the entry of another GOP challenger: Fairfax Co. Supervisor Pat Herrity (who narrowly lost the race to become County Chairman after Connolly ascended to the House). Herrity still faces a primary against self-funding Keith Fimian, who lost big-time to Connolly in the open seat race in 2008 and won’t get out of Herrity’s way; Fimian may still be able to beat the better-known Herrity based on his big cash stash.

• WA-02: No one has really thought of Rep. Rick Larsen as vulnerable lately, as he dismantled his at-least-somewhat-touted Republican opponents in the last two elections in this D+3 district. Still, a long-time foe has taken a look at the more favorable Republican landscape and decided to take another whack at Larsen. John Koster (a state Rep. at the time) ran against Larsen and lost in 2000, when it was an open seat following Republican Rep. Jack Metcalf’s retirement. Koster has spent most of the decade on the suburban Snohomish County Council (where he’s currently the only Republican).

• Election results: A lot happened last night, most notably the upset victory by Democratic state Del. Dave Marsden in Virginia’s state Senate district 37 by 317 votes, good for a pickup and a slightly bigger (22-18) Democratic edge in that chamber – which helps insulate against Bob McDonnell trying to Beshear the Dems back into the minority there. Also in Virginia, businessman Jeff McWaters held dark-red Senate district 8 for the GOP, defeating Democrat Bill Fleming by a 79-21 margin. Two other dark-red legislative districts (both made vacant because of Republican sex scandals) stayed in GOP hands, as California’s AD-72 was held by Chris Norby, 63-31, and Tennessee’s HD-83 was won 67-30 by Mark White. In New Hampshire, the field is now set in a potentially competitive general election to fill SD-16 on Feb. 16 (the swing district was vacated by GOPer Ted Gatsas, elected Manchester mayor). State Rep. David Boutin won the GOP nod; he’ll face off against Dem state Rep. Jeff Goley. Dems can push up to a 15-9 edge with a pickup here.

• CT-Sen, CT-Gov: The rumors had been getting louder all week that ex-Ambassador Tom Foley would drop out of the complicated GOP Senate field, paring that field down to ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, Linda McMahon, and Peter Schiff, and head over to the seemingly easier Governor’s race instead. (Easier in the primary, at least — whatever Dem he faces in the general won’t come in with the same baggage as Chris Dodd.) Today Foley made it official, getting out of the Senate race and into the Governor’s race. Foley doesn’t have the field to himself, though, and in fact faces a formidable challenge from current Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele, who’d also been rumored to run but made it official yesterday. Fedele claims to have outgoing Gov. Jodi Rell’s support, but Rell is only saying that there are several well-qualified Republicans running.

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist is red in the face today after it was noticed that his recorded message giving callers the number for Florida KidCare had several of the numbers mixed up, and the number he was giving out was a number for ‘hot, horny girls.’ And while we’re talking about hot, horny girls, we might as well talk about Bubba the Love Sponge. Crist’s appearance tonight on his endless fundraising carousel is being hosted by attorney Stephen Diaco. One of Diaco’s most renowned clients is the aforementioned Mr. Sponge, who once famously asked Crist “Are you a homo?” (UPDATE: The St. Pete Times apparently got its shock jocks mixed up; that wasn’t Bubba the Love Sponge, but rather “Randy and Dave” who asked that.)

• IL-Sen: With David Hoffman hitting the airwaves this week, it didn’t take long for Alexi Giannoulias to respond with his first TV spot. While Hoffman’s ad is just him intensely facing down the camera, Giannoulias is a more conventional touchy-feely bio spot that focuses on his efforts to save jobs at local company Hartmarx. Also, Jacob Meister has his own internal poll out of the Democratic primary field. Usually candidates don’t release internal polls that show them polling at 1%, but, well, Meister’s gotta start somewhere. It’s pretty well in-line with the other candidates’ internals, showing about half of voters still undecided, with Giannoulias at 33, Cheryle Jackson at 10, and Hoffman at 7.

• KY-Sen: An interesting National Journal piece on Rand Paul points to what we’ve been wondering about: whether the Paulists and the teabaggers can make common cause, despite the the ideological differences they bring to the table (if one can accuse the teabaggers’ incoherent and paranoid set of grievances to be an ‘ideology’). The answer is, yes, apparently they can, as they’re sufficiently united in their hatred of all things guvmint. Paul has apparently had some success reaching out to the tea party wing of the Republicans, and lately has taken to comparing himself to another successful upstart, Marco Rubio.

• FL-05: Florida Republican Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite isn’t really on anybody’s list of vulnerable House members, but, in case that needed to be quantified, she released an internal poll proving that. A Tarrance Group survey found her with a 62/18 approval. Her greatest concern in 2010 in this GOP-leaning district may be a primary challenge from teabagger Jason Sager, but her approval is in “the 70s” purely among conservative Republicans, so she’s probably safe on her right flank too.

• MN-06: It looks like the Democratic contest in the 6th is going to go to a primary, regardless of what happens with the DFL endorsement process. Maureen Reed says she’s won’t abide by the state party’s endorsement (which was probably already going to go to the well-connected state Sen. Tarryl Clark). Minnesota has a notoriously late primary, which could leave the primary winner with little time to replenish before the general against Rep. Michele Bachmann, but it’s possible the Minnesota primary may get moved earlier to comply with new federal election laws.

• NC-05: Rep. Virginia Foxx is protected by a deep-red district but has a great gift for inserting her foot into her mouth, so it’s always good to have a Dem on tap to go against her. The rumored candidate for 2010 may be Billy Kennedy, a former state and county Democratic party committee member and the host of a local radio talk show.

• NH-01: Manchester mayor Frank Guinta is quickly going from a solo show to Three’s Company, with businessman Rich Ashooh getting in earlier this week and now Fergus Cullen saying he’s interested in the race too. Cullen is the former state party chair in New Hampshire, and points out that offers some contrasts to the other two candidates, in terms of being more socially moderate and also being from the district’s rural part instead of Manchester.

• NH-02: Next door in the 2nd, it looks like we’re also about to expand to a three-person field on the Dem side. Katrina Swett, an attorney who lost to Charlie Bass in 2002, says she’s “very, very strongly” moving in the direction of running — this comes after people were starting to wonder where she is, despite her long-expected candidacy (she says she’s been busy with the Lantos Foundation, named after her father, former Rep. Tom Lantos). Attorney Ann McLane Kuster and state Rep. John DeJoie are already in, but Swett has the advantage of leftover funds that she stockpiled for a Senate run last year that never happened.

• NY-01: Here’s an internal in a race where the incumbent is considered potentially vulnerable: Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop, in Long Island’s 1st. The internal, taken by wealthy Republican Randy Altschuler by McLaughlin & Assocs. gives Bishop a big lead, 46-26. Still, Altschuler hasn’t introduced himself to the district yet and is likely only to gain ground, so Bishop might want to take notice that he’s polling below the magic 50% mark.

• PA-06: The Democratic primary in the 6th has suddenly escalated into a brutal barfight in the last few days, with both candidates’ camps throwing the kitchen sink and everything else handy at each other. The initial sound and fury focused on abortion, but it quickly devolved into general impugning of each other’s motives, and one of the issues then hurled by the Manan Trivedi camp via press release was the sockpuppetry engaged in here at SSP by a Doug Pike campaign official. So, that’s some food for thought for all the campaign pros (and amateurs) among the SSP readership: don’t give in to the temptation to sockpuppet, or it could actually wind up a campaign issue that bites you in the butt.

• PA-08: The Republicans found an elected official to go up against not-terribly-vulnerable Rep. Patrick Murphy in the suburban, Dem-leaning 8th: Judith Algeo, a lawyer who’s also on the Warwick Township Board of Supervisors. Warwick Twp. has a population of 12,000, though, so what little name rec that generates isn’t guaranteed to get her out of the GOP primary — there are three other candidates already, among whom attorney and Marine Reservist Dean Malik seems to have gotten the most attention.

• TN-06: Things still seem to be full speed ahead for Republican state Sen. Jim Tracy, who’s now meeting with the NRCC in Washington about the logistics of a challenge against long-time Rep. Bart Gordon in this increasingly-red district. He’d face a primary against former Rutherford Co. GOP chair Lou Ann Zelenik, though.

• TN-08: A couple more items about the newly-minted open seat in the 8th: state Sen. Roy Herron is already in the race (and out of the gubernatorial race), but he’s going to be refunding the money he raised for his gubernatorial run. On the one hand, it’s gotta suck to be giving back that $900K, but on the other hand, assumedly he can get much of that re-donated back to his new account and it does show that he knows how to raise the dough. Also, good news as the Dems seek to avoid a costly primary: fellow state Sen. Lowe Finney said that he wouldn’t seek the nomination.

• GA-St. House: It’s looking like Republican state House speaker Glenn Richardson’s resignation is imminent. People on both sides of the aisle have been urging him to step down in the wake of Richardson’s suicide attempt last month, although perhaps more damaging is the allegation that the suicide attempt was related to an affair with a utility lobbyist where there may have been some quid pro quos. (And I have to ask, thinking back to “Hot Mike” Duvall in California, is that just how utility lobbyists do business these days?)

The Republican field in the Connecticut Senate race is suddenly shedding candidates. Unable to carve out any space between Rob Simmons’ name rec, Linda McMahon’s huge wallet, and Peter Schiff’s diehard base of weirdos, state Sen. and former Waterbury mayor Sam Caligiuri has dropped out and will instead run in CT-05 against Democratic sophomore Rep. Chris Murphy instead in the D+2 district (the most Republican-friendly one in Connecticut).

Caligirui will still have to make it past former Simmons aide Justin Bernier, who’d had enough fundraising success to get the NRCC’s attention, in the GOP primary. When the rumors about Caligiuri being encouraged to switch races started last week, Bernier made it clear he wasn’t going anywhere without a fight, and even invoked the specter of NY-23 in terms of what happens when insiders meddle in local races.

And now it sounds like former Ambassador Tom Foley — who wasn’t polling much better than Caligiuri, but who had more money and was closer to the state political establishment — may follow Caligiuri out the door. Foley released a statement saying he’s reconsidering the Senate race, and may jump over to the now-open gubernatorial race, where there is no official Republican candidate yet (although Lt. Governor Michael Fedele has sounded likely to run).

“I have had a number of conversations with people who are encouraging me to consider running for Governor because they believe I could better serve Connecticut today as Governor than as a Senator,” said Foley, adding that he will make an announcement on his plans next week.

Quinnipiac (11/3-8, registered voters, 9/10-14 in parens):

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 38 (39)

Rob Simmons (R): 49 (44)

Undecided: 11 (15)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 41 (NA)

Linda McMahon (R): 43 (NA)

Undecided: 12 (NA)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 42 (40)

Sam Caligiuri (R): 42 (36)

Undecided: 14 (20)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 40 (40)

Tom Foley (R): 47 (38)

Undecided: 13 (18)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 42 (42)

Peter Schiff (R): 41 (36)

Undecided: 15 (19)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 55 (56)

Merrick Alpert (D): 22 (13)

Undecided: 21 (25)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rob Simmons (R): 28 (43)

Linda McMahon (R): 17 (NA)

Tom Foley (R): 9 (5)

Peter Schiff (R): 5 (4)

Sam Caligiuri (R): 4 (2)

Undecided: 36 (43)

(MoE: ±5.4%)

Democrats had been seeming more confident about two Senate races, in Connecticut (where Chris Dodd seemed to be climbing back up to contention, as various controversies like the AIG bonuses and his mortgage that had buffetted him earlier in the year faded from view) and Ohio (where polls had shown the Democrats leading ex-Bushie Rob Portman). Yesterday, though, Quinnipiac threw a splash of cold water on both of those races.

In Connecticut, Republican ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, with whom Democratic incumbent Chris Dodd had pulled within 5 in September, now opens up an 11-point lead. Simmons also still looks on track to win the nomination, despite the splashy entry of wrasslin’ impresario Linda McMahon. Dodd had 42/49 favorables — actually a slight improvement from last time’s 40/48. Instead, Dodd seems dragged down by the economy, which respondents see as the biggest issue (at 33%) and which, for better or worse, the Democrats are starting to own. Simmons has a squeaky-clean 40/10 favorable (better than McMahon, at 20/13), so it may be time for Dodd to open up a Corzine-style can of slimy whoopass on Simmons — maybe starting by asking him what’s the deal with that teabag attached to his pocket constitution.

One other lowlight from the Connecticut poll: they find Joe Lieberman more popular than Chris Dodd, with 49/44 approval and a 46/45 re-elect. This despite 51% saying his views are closer to those of the Republican Party and 25% saying Democratic.

Quinnipiac (11/5-9, registered voters, 9/8-10 in parentheses):

Lee Fisher (D): 36 (42)

Rob Portman (R): 39 (31)

Undecided: 24 (26)

Lee Fisher (D): 38 (41)

Tom Ganley (R): 34 (29)

Undecided: 27 (27)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 34 (39)

Rob Portman (R): 38 (34)

Undecided: 27 (25)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 35 (39)

Tom Ganley (R): 32 (31)

Undecided: 30 (27)

(MoE: ±2.9%)

Lee Fisher (D): 24 (26)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 22 (17)

Undecided: 51 (55)

Rob Portman (R): 26 (27)

Tom Ganley (R): 7 (9)

Undecided: 64 (61)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

The economy may also be weighing on voters’ minds in Ohio, where Quinnipiac finds even Barack Obama in net-negative territory, with a 45/50 approval (although, compared with his national approvals, that may point to this as a slight outlier rather than an indication of particular disgruntlement in Ohio — recall this was the same sample that found a 40-40 tie in the gubernatorial race). The result is a pretty big turnaround in the Senate race, where Lt. Governor Lee Fisher was beating ex-Rep. Rob Portman by double digits in September but now falls into a slight deficit. Fisher beats teabagging auto dealer Tom Ganley, but there looks like little hope of Ganley getting out of the primary.

These numbers also indicate why SoS Jennifer Brunner is sticking around, despite the wheels having fallen off her campaign (and subsequently having been sold for food). Regardless of her fundraising situation, she’s still coming pretty close to Fisher in the primary, and performing about the same against the Republicans as Fisher. That, of course, may change once the ad wars begin.

RaceTracker Wiki: OH-Sen | CT-Sen

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/8-10, likely voters, 3/23-25 in parentheses):

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 42 (45)

Rob Simmons (R): 46 (40)

Undecided: 12 (15)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 46 (51)

Sam Caligiuri (R): 37 (30)

Undecided: 17 (19)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 44 (NA)

Tom Foley (R): 40 (NA)

Undecided: 16 (NA)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 47 (NA)

Peter Schiff (R): 35 (NA)

Undecided: 18 (NA)

(MoE: ±4%)

Rob Simmons (R): 38

Sam Caligiuri (R): 7

Thomas Foley (R): 6

Peter Schiff (R): 1

Undecided: 48

(MoE: ±5%)

Research 2000 takes a look at the Connecticut Senate race, and while of course it’s never good to be an incumbent who’s trailing a challenger, things are looking merely bad for Chris Dodd instead of dire. Note that the R2K trendlines have actually gone down for Dodd, but this still feels like a marked improvement because it’s been six months since R2K polled, during which time two Quinnipiac polls have seen a precipitous decline for Dodd (most recently, giving ex-Rep. Rob Simmons a 48-39 edge over Dodd). Maybe it’s an apples and oranges problem, or maybe we’ve seen Dodd bottom out and start back up as the economy improves and his woes associated with the Wall Street Bailout recede in the rear-view.

R2K also looks ahead to the 2012 Senate race, but their poll is conditioned on the assumption that Jodi Rell runs for the GOP (and it’s not even clear yet that she’s running for re-election as Governor)… and it’s also conditioned on Joe Lieberman not finding a way to win back the Democratic primary. Rell wins a Rell/Ned Lamont/Joe Lieberman match-up 46-26-26, and a Rell/Richard Blumenthal/Lieberman match-up 40-32-23. It also finds 68-21 support for the public option, and 87-6 rejection of birtherism.

Rasmussen (9/10, likely voters):

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 39

Rob Simmons (R): 49

Some other: 5

Not sure: 6

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 40

Tom Foley (R): 43

Some other: 7

Not sure: 10

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 43

Sam Caligiuri (R): 40

Some other: 7

Not sure: 10

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 42

Peter Schiff (R): 40

Some other: 7

Not sure: 10

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen (from numbers released last Friday) paints a grimmer picture for Dodd in their first look at this race, showing him down 9 against Simmons and also down 3 against Tom Foley, the former Ambassador to Ireland. Dodd beats the more conservative options, state Sen. Caligiuri and Paulist economist Peter Schiff.

Rasmussen doesn’t poll the Republican primary, although R2K finds Rob Simmons in commanding position there. The already-cluttered field sounds like it’s going to get even bigger (and weirder) with the addition of World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon to the mix, with the threat of her bringing $30 million of her own money with her. This creates the specter of a riotous primary where the contestants are not just metaphorically but literally hitting each other over the heads with folding chairs — but Connecticut uses a party endorsement process where the real vote that counts is the May convention vote among 1,600 town committee members. The winner goes onto the primary ballot with the party’s endorsement, although candidates who receive at least 15% of the vote at the convention may still petition to appear on the ballot in the August primary — but you’ve gotta wonder whether the Schiffs and McMahons of the field, with no political party connections whatsoever, will even make it over that threshold. (UPDATE: McMahon was a heavy contributor to Jodi Rell and was appointed in early 2009 to the Connecticut State Board of Education, so she’s not totally out of the political loop.)

RaceTracker Wiki: CT-Sen

• CT-Sen: Could the GOP field for the Connecticut Senate primary actually grow to six? We all know about ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, state Sen. Sam Caligiuri, ex-Ambassador Tom Foley, and Paulist economist Peter Schiff. But now two others are interested: businessman Jack Orchuli, who lost big-time to Chris Dodd in 2004, and businesswoman Linda McMahon. If the name sounds vaguely familiar, that’s because she’s the CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment and wife of Vince McMahon. (Well, if Jesse Ventura can become Governor, I suppose anything’s possible.) Opposition researchers will have a field day with her track record, no doubt starting with her patently unfair treatment of Triple H at WrestleMania 2000.

• IL-Gov: Comptroller Dan Hynes, who recently decided to run against Governor Pat Quinn in the Dem primary after AG Lisa Madigan declined, picked up an endorsement that may help with the 80-and-older set: former Sen. Adlai Stevenson III (who served in the Senate from 1970-1981, and is son of the unsuccessful presidential candidate and archetypal egghead). The endorsement was published at the Huffington Post — where I can’t imagine there are too many readers who remember Stevenson.

• NJ-Gov: Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner finds that Jon Corzine is starting to move back within the margin of error in New Jersey against Chris Christie. In a 3-way matchup including centrist independent Chris Daggett, Christie leads Corzine 40-35-10, while in a 2-way, Christie leads Corzine 43-37. It seems like some headway is finally being made on driving up Christie’s negatives, with his favorability at 32/31. With the recent Rove linkage reminding people that Christie is, in fact, a Republican, this trend may be poised to continue.

• NY-23: With everyone wondering “who the heck is Bill Owens?” here’s a link to the first mailer he’s sending out to voters in the 23rd, which focuses on job creation and his non-politician credentials.

• OH-18: Rep. Zack Space may avoid a challenge with his potentially most challenging GOP foe: state Sen. Jimmy Stewart, who says he “does not expect to run.” (That’s too bad that Stewart won’t be going to Washington; I was really looking forward to hearing all those letters from Boy Scouts read on the House floor.) Former magistrate judge Jeanette Moll, who lost the 2008 GOP primary, is already seeking the GOP nod for 2010.

• PA-06, PA-07: 2008 candidate Bob Roggio, after sounding vaguely interested, today tells Pa2010 that he won’t run in the open seat race for the 6th after all. Next door in the 7th, businessman Peter Welch sounds like he’s staying in the GOP primary, even if ex-US Attorney and recent gubernatorial race dropout Pat Meehan gets in.

• SC-03: Republican state Rep. Rex Rice continues to build up momentum to take over for retiring Rep. Gresham Barrett. One of his primary rivals, state Rep. Michael Thompson withdrew from the race and endorsed Rice.

• TN-09: Is Willie Herenton crazy like a fox, or just plain crazy? He’s resigning from his position as Memphis mayor to run for the House in the Democratic primary against Rep. Steve Cohen, but now he’s picked up the paperwork to run in the special mayoral election, necessitated by his resignation, in order to succeed himself. He says he’s still running for the House, but apparently needs to continue being Mayor to prevent Mayor Pro Tem Myron Lowery from screwing things up. (He already has several previous instances of trying to resign from office and then changing his mind.)