Tag: FL-21

Over the past couple of days, SSP has shifted its ratings of six competitive races. Here’s a roundup of what we did:

FL-21 (L. Diaz Balart): Lean Republican to Tossup

“Clash of the Titans”.

Those are the words that have been invariably used to describe this hotly-anticipated match-up between GOP Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart and former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez. The mud is beginning to fly fast and furiously, which is to be expected from these two highly-seasoned pols with a long history of personal animus and tension.

Yes, Martinez has baggage from legal troubles in the ’90s, but he’s also a larger than life figure in his hometown of Hialeah, and has an intensely loyal following in that GOP stronghold — as evidenced by many recent endorsements from prominent local Republicans.

The publicly-released polling of this race has been very close: Diaz-Balart led by four points in a June Bendixen poll, and SUSA actually found Martinez leading by two in August. A recent Carlos McDonald poll gives Diaz-Balart a five-point edge, but that’s too close for an incumbent’s comfort. This one is shaping up to be close.

IL-10 (Kirk): Lean Republican to Tossup

Of all the races that have been in SSP’s “Lean Republican” column since March, this one’s addition to the Tossup pile always seemed like an inevitable outcome — it was just a matter of timing.

Two recently-released polls — one from the DCCC and the other from R2K/DailyKos — give GOP Rep. Mark Kirk a slight edge here, but both polls have the incumbent dangerously below 50%, leaving him vulnerable to a late Seals surge in a D+3 district that is set to deliver a big margin for Barack Obama in November. On top of it all, a new SurveyUSA poll is showing Seals leading by 52-44. While it’s possible that that result is overstating things a bit, if there’s one thing we’ve learned in the past few years, it’s that Republicans are getting increasingly poorer at holding Dem-tilting districts. After all, let’s not forget that Seals, a very talented candidate, outperformed his final internal poll during his 2006 race against Kirk by a full 15 points.

While Kirk has a wrongly-perceived “moderate” profile working in his favor, Seals is deftly using Kirk’s past criticism of Obama to his advantage. This race is a tossup.

NJ-03 (Open): Lean Democratic to Tossup

While Democrat John Adler has been a fundraising machine in his race for the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jim Saxton, he has yet to show much in the way of polling strength so far. In the internals of Republican Chris Myers and recently-released Zogby and Monmouth polls, Myers has led Adler by close margins. You can say what you like about those pollsters, but the fact that we haven’t seen any Democratic polls of this race seems a bit telling.

While this is a D+3 open seat (albeit one that voted for Bush in 2004), it hasn’t elected a Democrat to the House in over 100 years. While Jersey Democrats seem to have a habit of being underestimated in the polls, and it still would be surprising if Myers was the ultimate victor in November, it’s hard to give Adler a clear edge here for now.

NV-02 (Heller): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

After Dean Heller beat Democrat Jill Derby in the open seat race for this R+8 district in 2006, many figured a rematch would be fruitless for Democrats here. However, several factors are making this contest interesting, the most glaring being the dramatic change in the district’s voter pool.

By the end of 2006, registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 171,874 to 124,008 in this district. (Bear in mind that Derby lost here by under 13,000 votes that year.) The most recent figures listed with the Nevada SoS are significantly different; since 2006, Republicans have added under 4000 new voters to the rolls here, while Democrats have picked up nearly 26,000. That’s a potentially big group of voters who simply were not in play for Derby two years ago.

A recent Research 2000 poll from August gave Heller a mere 47-42 lead over Derby, and private numbers haven’t been especially strong for Heller, either. While Heller retains a clear edge, an upset feels a bit more than just distantly possible in this district.

NY-29 (Kuhl): Lean Republican to Tossup

GOP Rep. “Shotgun” Randy Kuhl faced a close race from Democrat Eric Massa here in 2006, ultimately winning by only 6,000 votes despite heavy assistance from the NRCC and no DCCC response.

Since then, Kuhl hasn’t exactly been showing much fire in the belly. He was dogged by retirement rumors earlier this year, and has consistently posted sluggish fundraising numbers, being outraised by Massa since the start of the cycle. And don’t forget his response to debate requests from community leaders and local media outfits last month:

“At this point we haven’t agreed to any. We’ve taken the position that I’ve been real busy.”

While this is an R+5 Appalachian-flavored district, it’s facing tough economic times and that should make for a volatile race for Kuhl. Two recent polls, one by the Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC and another by SurveyUSA, have given Massa the lead here. This looks set to be the most challenging race of Kuhl’s career.

OH-01 (Chabot): Lean Republican to Tossup

GOP Rep. Steve Chabot has been a perennial target for Democrats in this Cincinnati-based district, but this year’s conditions appear to be the most treacherous.

A recent SurveyUSA poll gave Chabot a two-point lead over his Democratic opponent, state Rep. Steve Driehaus. Moreover, Chabot is particularly at-risk by Barack Obama’s strong push in this 28% African-American district. That same SurveyUSA poll gave Obama a 52-43 lead, a considerable improvement over John Kerry’s 49-51 loss here in 2004.

The big Democratic push at the top of the ticket by Obama seems set to give Chabot his biggest test in years.

Carlos McDonald/Telemundo51 (9/27-10/1, likely voters):

Raul Martinez (D): 43

Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±5.7%)

One thing from the crosstabs doesn’t jive: Diaz-Balart is leading Martinez by 48-44 among men, but apparently Martinez has a 49-43 lead among women. It makes no sense at all for Diaz-Balart to have a five point lead with a breakdown like that, so I think it’s reasonable to conclude that Telemundo51 must have accidentally flipped the female numbers between the two candidates.

The ethnic split also pretty much tells the story: Cuban-Americans favor Diaz-Balart by 61-30 while non-Cuban Hispanics give Martinez a 53-37 edge. Whites and African-Americans favor Martinez by 47-39.

This is shaping up to be a close one.

Lot’s of internal polls to digest in recent days. Let’s kill ’em all in one post.

FL-13:

Public Opinion Strategies for the NRCC (8/23-24, likely voters, July in parens and 3/5-6 in brackets):

Christine Jennings (D): 30 (30) [37]

Vern Buchanan (R-inc): 48 (44) [53]

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Woof. That’s not a spread that I like to see, but at least Buchanan is under 50%. After being hit by a new lawsuit every week for the past month and a half (or so) on allegations of consumer fraud and illegal campaign fundraising, Buchanan’s camp released this poll to ensure folks that everything is hunky-dory. We haven’t seen numbers from this race from any other source than Buchanan’s campaign, so I’m inclined to believe these ballpark figures. However, with so many legal headaches, I wouldn’t say that Buchanan is out of the woods yet.

FL-21:

Hill Research Associates for Lincoln Diaz-Balart (6/19-22, likely voters):

Raul Martinez (D): 36

Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 48

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Diaz-Balart pumped out this somewhat moldy poll in an attempt to refute a recent SUSA poll showing Martinez leading D-B the Lesser by two. Given that a Bendixen poll of this race from June showed Martinez trailing only by four points, I’m inclined to believe that the numbers are much tighter than Diaz-Balart’s cherry-picked poll suggests.

IL-18:

Public Opinion Strategies for Aaron Schock (8/18-20, likely voters):

Colleen Callahan (D): 27

Aaron Schock (R): 56

Sheldon Schafer (G): 2

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Ugh. Crazy Aaron Schock doesn’t deserve this.

PA-10:

Momentum Analysis for Christopher Carney (8/19-21, likely voters):

Christopher Carney (D-inc): 54

Chris Hackett (R-inc): 27

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Yeah, I dunno, dudes. SurveyUSA also recently tested this R+8 district, and found Carney only holding a 49-45 lead. I’m a little more inclined to believe that this race is closer to SUSA’s estimate than Carney’s poll, but I still feel pretty good about his chances.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/24-26, likely voters):

Raul Martinez (D): 48

Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 46

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Martinez, the former mayor of Hialeah, is a larger than life but at times somewhat controversial figure in the Miami area. He was always expected to give Diaz-Balart the stiffest challenge of his political life in this R+6.2 district, but seeing him ahead in a poll this early is fairly jolting. Another poll from Bendixen earlier this summer showed Diaz-Balart leading, but only by four points.

There’s no doubt that South Florida is changing for the better. Since 2006, Democrats have cut a 28,000 voter registration deficit in the 21st CD to a lead of only 15,000 for the GOP. And the numbers are getting bluer by the month. Similar trends are evident in FL-18 and FL-25, where progressive fighters Annette Taddeo and Joe Garcia are waging strong campaigns against Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario Diaz-Balart, respectively.

Need more evidence that the Miami area is trending Dem? Just check out the Presidential numbers — despite this being a district that Bush carried by 14 points in 2004 and one that is part of the backbone of the GOP’s statewide foundation, Barack Obama and John McCain are tied at 48% each in the district. That is some seriously alarming news for the GOP, both for this election and for the long-term.

With congressional primaries in Alaska and Florida on August 26th, tonight was the deadline for candidates to file their pre-primary fundraising reports with the FEC. I’ve rounded up the numbers of interest, covering the period of July 1st through August 6th, in the chart below. All figures are in thousands.

Christine Jennings has yet to file her report, but once she does, it will be available here.

The Florida Division of Elections has released their latest tallies of voter registration by congressional district (as of 7/28), and Democrats are posting some big gains since 2006 in targeted races this fall.

Let’s take a look at the numbers in the chart below. In the 2006 column, we have the GOP’s voter registration advantage in each district as of October 10th, 2006. In the next column, we have the most recent spread, followed by the net change. In the last column, we’ve ranked the districts according to the percentage change in the GOP-Dem spread. Take a peek:

The ground is shifting quickly in the Orlando-based 8th District, where GOP Rep. Ric Keller could be facing a real battle to hang onto his seat. The next biggest shift is in South Florida, where Democrats have posted huge registration gains in recent months, and where Democrats Annette Taddeo, Raul Martinez, and Joe Garcia are giving Republican Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and the Diaz-Balart brothers the fight of their lives.

The biggest black eye for Florida Democrats continues to be the open seat of FL-15, where despite having cut into the GOP’s voter registration advantage by over 9000 votes, Democrats were not able to find a top-tier candidate for the race. Democrats held retiring Rep. Dave Weldon to a 56-44 margin with an unknown candidate in 2006, but it appears that our candidate this year won’t be much stronger: both Democrats in the race have raised under $40K each.

Still, there’s a lot of good news here, and we should see some exciting races in Florida this fall.

Bendixen & Associates (6/6-22, registered voters) polls our trio of South Florida congressional races.

FL-25:

Joe Garcia (D): 39

Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 44

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±5%)

FL-21:

Raul Martinez (D): 37

Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 41

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±5%)

FL-18:

Annette Taddeo (D): 31

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-inc): 58

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±5%)

The McClatchy article on these polls doesn’t specify whether or not Bendixen tested registered or likely voters, but given that the poll overlaps with this similarly-targeted Bendixen poll from the same time frame, we’ll make the assumption that this is a poll of registered voters.

While two weeks is an awfully long time frame for a congressional poll, the numbers are quite good for Garcia and Martinez, who are putting the GOP’s traditional grip on South Florida’s Cuban community to the test. Less great are the numbers for Taddeo, but undoubtedly she lags in name recognition compared to Martinez (a longtime former mayor of Hialeah) and Garcia (the former director of the Cuban-American National Foundation and Miami-Dade Democratic Chair).

This could be a transformative year in South Florida.

SSP currently rates these races as Likely Republican, but our next round of ratings will come next week and some of these races may be in need of an upgrade.

So far, so good for Lincoln Diaz-Balart:

Locked in a competitive reelection battle, Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart last week touted endorsements from several local unions.

“I am deeply honored by the broad support my campaign for reelection is receiving from the working men and women of our community,” he said in a press release, citing backing from unions such as the Fraternal Order of Police and United Teachers of Dade.

The only snag? Two of the unions that Diaz-Balart claimed the endorsements of are actually supporting his Democratic challenger, former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez:

But two of the 12 unions on the list — the Transport Workers Union Local 291 and International Longshoremen’s Association Local 1922, both AFL-CIO affiliates — say they didn’t endorse the Republican incumbent.

“Absolutely not,” transport workers local union president Wessell Clarke said.

Though the transport workers have considered Diaz-Balart “our friend in Congress for the past 15 years,” Clarke said, they and the longshoremen’s local went along with the Florida AFL-CIO, which voted last week to endorse Diaz-Balart’s Democratic rival, former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez. The union is also backing two other congressional challengers — Joe Garcia, who is running against Diaz-Balart’s brother, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, and Annette Taddeo, who is trying to oust Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

Busted! Add another Republican fuckup to the list.

There’s a great passage in The Thumpin’ about former DCCC chair Rahm Emanuel’s frustrations with Democratic colleagues who aren’t serious about doing what it takes to win.  Allow me to share an excerpt:

In early 2006, Congressman Alcee Hastings, a Florida Democrat, was quoted in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel speaking sympathetically of Congressman Shaw, one of Emanuel’s top Republican targets.  Hastings, because of his friendship with Shaw, also refused to endorse Shaw’s Democratic challenger, Ron Klein.  In the Sun-Sentinel article, Hastings even gave Shaw strategic advice on how to defeat Klein, advocating that he knock on doors to connect personally with voters rather than relying on television ads as he had in the past.  Then, in a closed meeting of Democratic House members, Hastings chastised Emanuel and the DCCC for not recruiting more candidates across the country, saying Democrats needed to run a respectable candidate in every House district.

[…]It enraged Emanuel, who saw Hastings as typifying those of his fellow Democrats who were content to criticize but did nothing to help the cause.  “He’s great on lectures,” Emanuel said of Hastings.  “Phenomenal lecturer.  I’m getting a lecture on recruitment when A, you haven’t done a goddamn thing and B, we’ve got a [Republican] target and you’re out there kissing his ass in the press?”

Keep Emanuel’s indignation in mind as you hear the following story of betrayal in South Florida.

Sensing a shift in the political climate of the traditionally solid-GOP turf of the Miami area, Democrats have lined up three strong challengers — Miami-Dade Democratic Party chair Joe Garcia, former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez, and businesswoman Annette Taddeo to take on Reps. Mario Diaz-Balart, Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, respectively.

While there is an enormous sense of excitement and optimism surrounding these candidacies, some Democratic lawmakers, including Florida Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Kendrick Meek, are all too eager to kneecap these Democratic challengers right out of the starting gate in the spirit of “comity” and “bipartisan cooperation” with their Republican colleagues:

But as three Miami Democrats look to unseat three of her South Florida Republican colleagues, Wasserman Schultz is staying on the sidelines. So is Rep. Kendrick Meek, a Miami Democrat and loyal ally to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. […]

This time around, Wasserman Schultz and Meek say their relationships with the Republican incumbents, Reps. Lincoln Diaz-Balart and his brother Mario, and Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, leave them little choice but to sit out the three races.

“At the end of the day, we need a member who isn’t going to pull any punches, who isn’t going to be hesitant,” Wasserman Schultz said.

Now, you’d expect this kind of bullshit from a backbencher like Alcee Hastings, but you wouldn’t expect this kind of behavior from the co-chair of the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, which is the position that Wasserman Schultz currently holds.  Apparently, Debbie did not get Rahm’s memo about doing whatever it takes to win:

The national party, enthusiastic about the three Democratic challengers, has not yet selected Red to Blue participants. But Wasserman Schultz has already told the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee that if any of the three make the cut, another Democrat should be assigned to the race.

“It needs to be somebody who can roll up their sleeves,” Wasserman Schultz said. “I’m just not that person; it’s just too sensitive for me.”

Hey, Debbie: there are no recusals in politics.  If you want to consider yourself a “rising star” in the Democratic caucus, don’t think you can get away with this:

A day later, Wasserman Schultz and Ros-Lehtinen lavished compliments on each other at a Washington luncheon with Miami-Dade commissioners. “I can’t say enough good things about Ileana Ros-Lehtinen; she has been my friend since I was first elected to office,” Wasserman Schultz said, noting she relied on Ros-Lehtinen’s advice to help balance the demands of elected office and motherhood. (emphasis added)

Debbie’s behavior is tantamount to no-confidence in Joe Garcia, Raul Martinez, and Annette Taddeo, and a betrayal of her fellow Democrats everywhere.

I have a few suggestions for Debbie, if she’s at all interested in saving her credibility within the DCCC, the caucus, grassroots Dems and pretty much everyone who cares about Team Blue: enthusiastically endorse all three of these candidates and organize a fundraiser for each of them.  It’s the least she could do to help undo the damage that she’s inflicted in South Florida.

Ask yourself: What would Rahm do?

(Hat-tip: FLA Politics)

As we wrote back in October, Democrats have been aiming to recruit three solid challengers to dislodge the heavily-entrenched trio of Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-21 and FL-25, respectively) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-18).

The first heavy hitter, former Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez, threw his hat into the ring against Lincoln Diaz-Balart yesterday.

Are two more challengers on the way?  Local NBC6 political reporter Nick Bogert reports that the Democrats will field a full slate against the Miami-area incumbents:

Democrats hope to take on all three long-time Cuban-American congressional Republicans, Bogert said.

Miami-Dade County party chair Joe Garcia said he will challenge Mario Diaz-Balart, and businesswoman Annette Taddeo will take on Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

Democrats may even set up political action committees to pay for advertisements attacking all three Republican incumbents, Bogert said. He said to expect Republicans to spend a lot to defend those seats.

Garcia, chair of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party and former Cuban-American National Foundation executive director, is the real deal, and should be an excellent candidate.

This is the first I’ve heard of Annette Taddeo, but her official biography is impressive.

Get ready for some south Florida barn-burners.