According to The Hill, Florida Democrats are seeking to put three Miami-area incumbent Republicans on the defensive next year: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-18), Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL-21) and Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-24). Below is a chart of PVIs and Presidential voting in the three districts:
State |
CD |
Incumbent |
Party |
PVI |
Kerry ’04 |
Bush ’04 |
Gore ’00 |
Bush ’00 |
|---|
FL |
18 |
Ros-Lehtinen |
(R) |
R+4.3 |
46 |
54 |
43 |
57 |
FL |
21 |
Diaz-Balart, Lincoln |
(R) |
R+6.2 |
43 |
57 |
42 |
58 |
FL |
25 |
Diaz-Balart, Mario |
(R) |
R+4.4 |
44 |
56 |
45 |
55 |
It is no secret that Republicans have long dominated Cuban-American politics in Florida, where a tough stance on Cuba has long been at the forefront of the community’s political goals. The same has been true of these Miami-area districts. Interestingly, though, Kerry performed slightly better than Gore did in both the 18th and 21st districts, despite the fact that Kerry lost the state by 5% while Gore and Bush ran nearly evenly in 2000.
Could one, two, or all three of these incumbents end up being the next Henry Bonilla, the Texas Republican who got trounced by Democrat Ciro Rodriguez in a district with a similarly red PVI (R+4.2) last December? Florida Democrats are eager to put the three incumbents to the test, and are actively seeking challengers.
They may have found the candidate to give Lincoln Diaz-Balart a run for his money in Raul Martinez, the popular former mayor of Hialeah:
Martinez is exactly the kind of candidate Democrats would need to seriously challenge Diaz-Balart because their battle would take place in a district where cultural ties matter more than party affiliation, according to David Wasserman, U.S. House editor for The Cook Political Report.
“Democrats are looking more for a name than a moneyed or well-funded campaign,” he said.
Martinez, who like Diaz-Balart is a Cuban émigré, fits that bill after 25 years as mayor of Hialeah, which is the fifth-largest city in Florida, boasts a huge Cuban population and is 90 percent Hispanic.
As of 2004, Hialeah’s population has been recorded at nearly 225,000 — a good base for a challenger to draw on. Last month, Martinez quit his radio show after being asked to sign a waiver by station management promising not to run for a political office. Keeping his options open? Sounds like it to me:
“That’s Miami,” quipped Martinez, who said he believes the station came under political pressure from GOP forces trying to protect Lincoln Diaz-Balart. The incident has him leaning toward running, Martinez said.
“My family comes first, but then, my love has always been politics,” he said in an interview. He plans to make his decision by the end of October or mid-November, partly to give others enough time to prepare for a run if he decides against challenging the eight-term Republican.
Democrats are hopeful that, with strong challengers at the helm, the political landscape will shift in southeast Florida. They’re already touting polls that show Iraq and health care as the top concerns in the Diaz-Balart districts. It’s worth noting that all three of these incumbents voted against the recent S-CHIP expansion package, and in support of the president’s veto of the bi-partisan legislation. The DCCC is sensing an opportunity: they’ve begun airing Spanish-language radio ads in all three districts, hitting the incumbents hard over their unconscionable votes.
Now all we need are three challengers to take these districts for a spin.
Race Tracker: FL-18 | FL-21 | FL-25
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