Tag: PA-03

• MO-Sen: In an e-mail to local TV affiliate KY3, former Treasurer Sarah Steelman seems to be walking back her comments to the Hill yesterday, not wanting to appear to shut the door on a GOP primary bid against Rep. Roy Blunt. She says she’s still “very seriously considering” it.

• PA-Sen: Here’s an interesting development: a state legislator in Pennsylvania has introduced a bill to switch Pennyslvania from closed to open primaries. This seems like a nakedly pro-Specter bill: it would have helped him survive his GOP primary against Pat Toomey, and now it would have the opposite effect, helping him survive a Democratic primary against Joe Sestak by opening the door to independents and moderate Republicans.

• AK-AL: Unless the indictment fairy has a present for him soon, Rep. Don Young looks to have a much easier go of it in 2010 than last cycle. Not only is his Dem challenger ex-state House minority leader Ethan Berkowitz likely to run for governor instead, but now it sounds like his primary opponents, Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell and ex-state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, aren’t going to run again either. Unlike last time, Parnell would need to give up his LG job to run, and he may instead be running for Governor if Sarah Palin declines to run again. Businessman Andrew Halcro, who ran for Governor as an independent in 2006, also sounds likely to run for Governor rather than challenge Young. State Senator Hollis French, who sounded like a likely Governor candidate for the Dems until Berkowitz showed up, may be the Dems’ best bet.

• AL-07: The field to replace Artur Davis got bigger, as Jefferson Co. Councilor Shelia Smoot officially launched her campaign. She joins lawyer Terri Sewell, state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr., and former Selma mayor James Perkins in the primary (which is the only real race in this D+18 district).

• CA-11: Contra Costa County Sheriff Warren Rupf turned down the chance to run as a Republican in the upcoming CA-10 special election, but that seemed to ignite his interest, as now he’s considering running in 2010 in next-door CA-11 against sophomore Rep. Jerry McNerney, at R+1 a more plausible race than the D+11 CA-10.

• FL-08: Republican state Representative Steve Precourt is considering making the race against Rep. Alan Grayson in this R+2 Orlando-area seat. His strongest words seemed to be reserved for likely primary opponent Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, who Precourt doesn’t see as a “fresh face” or viable, although Precourt said he’d stand down if former state Sen. Daniel Webster got in.

• ID-01: The Republican field in ID-01 is filling up, as state House majority leader Ken Roberts announced he’s in. He’ll have to get past veteran and McCain ally Vaughn Ward before facing off against Rep. Walt Minnick, though. Ex-Rep. Bill Sali occasionally makes threatening noises about a rematch, but he hasn’t said anything definite.

• NH-02: Former state Rep. Bob Giuda (not to be confused with Frank Guinta, running in NH-01) is the first GOPer to launch an exploratory committee in the race to fill Rep. Paul Hodes’ open seat. He may still be joined by the 2008 candidate, Jennifer Horn, and, more remotely, a return by ex-Rep. Charlie Bass.

• NY-23: Douglas Hoffman, the head of a local accounting firm, has thrown his hat into the GOP nomination contest for the special election to replace Rep. John McHugh. Republicans also announced their schedule for picking a nominee, involving four regional meetings around the districts where candidates would speak to the Republican county committee members over a two- to four-week period once there’s an official vacancy.

• PA-03: Freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, representing the swingy R+3 district based in Erie (won by John McCain by 62 votes), has managed to secure a hot ticket in view of its self-imposed membership cap: she joined the Blue Dog Coalition.

• Redistricting: A petition drive is underway in Florida to get an initiative on the ballot for 2010 that, while not creating an independent redistricting campaign, would at least place some non-partisan limitations on the creation of House and legislative districts. Most of the money behind the petition drive is coming from Democrats, but two prominent Democrats aren’t on board with the drive: Reps. Alcee Hastings and Corrine Brown, both of whom stand to inherit more difficult districts if they’re made less convoluted.

Public Opinion Strategies for Phil English (10/22-23, likely voters, no trendlines):

Kathy Dahlkemper (D): 45

Phil English (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±5%)

You know the sail barge is listing badly over the pit of the Sarlacc when your own internal shows you up two and under 50. I’d love to see the trendlines on this sucker – I’m sure this isn’t the first poll POS has done for Philly. But it may very well be the last.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/6-8, likely voters):

Kathy Dahlkemper (D): 48

Phil English (R-inc): 41

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±5)

Another brutal showing for Philly the Hutt. Remember, a recent SurveyUSA poll from late September had Dahlkemper ahead by 49-45. English’s favorable rating, at 39-45, says it all (Dahlkemper has a 49-28 rating).

With numbers this bad, it’s no surprise that the NRCC has made shoring up English priority number one in their independent expenditure shop. In a year like this, though, I’m not sure if money is gonna save him — especially with Barack Obama edging McCain by 48-46 in this culturally conservative R+1.6 district.

You can’t say that English has been caught off guard — he’s been very vocal about the danger he’s in for months, and has flooded the airwaves with ads since the early summer months in an effort to swamp out the poorly-funded Dahlkemper. You can’t dock English marks for effort, but nothing he’s been doing appears to be working at all.

Earlier in the day, the Swing State Project changed its ratings for four House races. Here’s a round-up of what we did:

MI-09 (Knollenberg): Lean Republican to Tossup

GOP Rep. Joe Knollenberg identified himself as an early target of the 2008 election cycle after his surprisingly tepid 2006 electoral performance against underfunded Democrat Nancy Skinner. He won that race by a mere 52-46 margin, but now faces a stiffer challenge from former state Senator Gary Peters.

A number of factors have contributed to our decision to shift this race over to the Tossup column, most notably being the district’s Democratic trend. Al Gore lost the 9th District by 47-51 in 2000, but John Kerry made it a two-point race four years later, and it looks like this trend is set to continue at the Presidential level. Public and internal polls by EPIC-MRA and the DCCC have both shown Barack Obama leading John McCain in this district by varying margins, and private polling confirms this. Furthermore, both of the released polls of this race show a tight contest, with Knollenberg hovering around the 40% mark. That’s a precarious position for any incumbent to occupy.

This race was already a Tossup before the news that John McCain will be pulling out of Michigan, but that just makes the race even tougher for Knollenberg.

NC-08 (Hayes): Lean Republican to Tossup

We’ve been admittedly slow to come around to this race, but that’s only because we’ve been less than impressed with Kissell’s extremely sluggish fundraising efforts and questionable spending. But the DCCC has been spending heavily to make up Kissell’s gaps (including, we should note, recent expenditures on field organizing). Moreover, recent polling shows Dems surging in the Presidential and Senate races throughout the state, with noticeable results in the 8th CD — an R+3 district with a sizable African-American population and plenty of down-home Democrats.

Recent internal polling from the DCCC shows Kissell with an 11-point lead, and while that may be a temporary financial crisis bounce (especially with the banking and finance industry being so prominent in Charlotte), Hayes is plummeting in his own internals, as well. We could see Hayes ending up on the wrong side of the Democratic tide in North Carolina.

NM-02 (Open): Lean Republican to Tossup

It’s beginning to become very clear why the NRCC was so desperate to keep Steve Pearce out of the Senate race in New Mexico — they knew that they could face some major problems in an open seat race in Southern New Mexico, even though the district has an R+6 tilt.

Democrats nominated Harry Teague, a former Lea County commissioner and oilman, who cuts a conservative profile that appeals to many of the district’s conservative Democrats. The Republican nominee, Ed Tinsley, is saddled by his past as a lobbyist for the National Restaurant Association — a record that the DCCC is beginning to attack in recent TV ads. Teague, who like Tinsley is partially self-funding his race, has been working the retail side of the race heavily, visiting many of the district’s far-flung towns and scoring impressive reviews in such encounters. A recent Teague internal poll shows the Democrat leading this contest by five points, and an upcoming Research 2000 poll will apparently show a similar margin. This race is wide open for the taking.

PA-03 (English): Lean Republican to Tossup

Of all the top tier races this year, this contest appears to be the most unusual. Democrats originally recruited Erie city Councilman Kyle Foust to take on GOP Rep. Phil “the Hutt” English last year. However, when his candidacy quickly fizzled out in mediocrity, the race didn’t look so promising. But Erie Arboretum director and businesswoman Kathy Dahlkemper has come on strong — or, perhaps we should say, English has been fading fast. A Dahlkemper internal poll from July indicated that the race was a dead heat, and the NRCC’s decision to reserve $820,000 in ad time to protect him was the first big tell here. The next indication of this race’s competitiveness was the DCCC’s decision to go up on the air against English in early September, followed by English’s very public displays of flop sweat. Indeed, the NRCC has followed through and earlier this week spent its first paid media dollars of the fall in this race.

With a recent SUSA poll giving Dahlkemper a four-point lead over English, there is no longer any doubt. This race is a tossup.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (9/26-28, likely voters):

Kathy Dahlkemper (D): 49

Phil English (R-inc): 45

Undecided: 6

(MoE: ±4%)

Oh yeah. No wonder Philly has been producing so much flop sweat in recent weeks — the only two polls that have been publicly-released from this race (including a Dahlkemper internal) show the incumbent in brutal shape.

The DCCC has been pounding English hard over the airwaves for the past several weeks, and the NRCC responded in kind tonight with a media buy of their own. I’m betting that their internal polling numbers are similarly bad.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, but I think a ratings update may be due.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 48-46 in this district — not a bad margin, considering that Bush beat Kerry by 53-47 here in 2004.

The DCCC has filed nearly $1.6 million in media buys in support of House Democratic candidates tonight. Here’s the damage:

This is on top of $1.4 million in media buys filed in 15 other districts yesterday. Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has spent money on TV ads in LA-06, NJ-03, NM-02, NV-03, and WI-08.

For more details on these and other expenditures, please consult SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker.

Talk about going off message. In an interview with PolitickerPA.com, GOP Rep. Phil English called the fact that the NRCC is polling his race against Democratic businesswoman Kathy Dahlkemper an “ominous” portent for his re-election:

“Ominously, we saw also they had polled,” noted English. “I think they’re testing.”

Not exactly ringing words of self-confidence, wouldn’t you say? But don’t worry, Philly quickly shifted gears to full spin mode:

But the results of the survey, he speculated, had been favorable.

“I think it’s also significant that we noticed from a distance that after they polled they did not go forward and launch early ads. I think that’s a strong indication of how strong our campaign has been.”

In that case, every Republican incumbent must be in incredibly strong shape, because the NRCC hasn’t spent a dime on attack ads anywhere. Or it could be that the NRCC has a 4-to-1 cash disadvantage against the DCCC, and can’t afford to use up their resources this early. But what do I know.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, but the beads of sweat forming on Philly’s upper lip are quite telling.

The DCCC is opening up their floodgates to some serious advertising expenditures in support of Democratic House candidates. Tonight, the committee filed $1.75 million in advertising expenditures in 15 districts:

These are some of the first significant media buys that the DCCC has made this fall, including a whopping $500K dumped against Jeb Bradley in NH-01.

The NRCC is continuing to maintain radio silence, because they can’t afford to match pace. I wonder if they’ll do some serious deficit financing in order to stay afloat this year.

More details on these and other expenditures are available in SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker. The DCCC has made some of these ads available to view online on their multimedia page.

Remember this guy? When we last checked in with Captain Charisma, a.k.a. Dr. Stephen Porter, the twice-failed Democratic congressional candidate had renounced his party and embarked on a quixotic campaign against GOP Rep. Phil English as an independent.

One petition challenge later…

An independent candidate for Congress does not have enough valid signatures on his nomination petitions to have his name on the November ballot, a state judge ruled.

Senior Commonwealth Court Judge James R. Kelley ruled Tuesday that 1,542 of the more than 3,200 signatures Steven Porter collected were invalid because Porter helped some voters fill out his nomination petitions. Porter needed 2,171 valid signatures to be on the ballot.

Porter is vowing to soldier on as a write-in candidate. Good luck with that, sir.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

(H/T: PolitickerPA.com)

Momentum Analysis for Kathy Dahlkemper (likely voters, 7/8-10):

Kathy Dahlkemper (D): 41

Phil English (R-inc): 40

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Wow. These are some stunning numbers, which I wouldn’t be surprised to see English attempt to refute with his only poll soon.

English has been airing ads touting his record well in advance of the general election, which shows that he acknowledges that he’s facing a real race this year — even against a political neophyte like Lake Erie Arboretum Director Kathy Dahlkemper. A staunch conservative occupying an R+1.6 district, English could be vulnerable in a strong year. Indeed, even against a fourth-tier candidate in Steven Porter last cycle, English only managed to score 54% of the vote.

With English holding a dismal 52% negative job approval rating, this is definitely a race to keep a close eye on.