Tag: NV-03

Anzalone-Liszt for Dina Titus (9/21-24, likely voters, 7/23-28 in parens):

Dina Titus (D): 46 (43)

Jon Porter (R-inc): 37 (39)

Other: 6 (10)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

How much trouble is Jon Porter in? Well, just look at the favorable/unfavorable numbers. Titus posts a 50-37 popularity score, while Porter is less loved at 44-41 — his favorables down four and unfavorables up seven since July.

Back in June, Mason-Dixon released a poll showing Porter leading by a mere three points, but perhaps the most important number is this one: since 2006, Democrats have expanded their voter registration lead in Nevada’s 3rd CD from 2,900 voters to 25,445 in August.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

UPDATE: Porter’s own internal (Public Opinion Strategies, 9/23-24) shows him leading Titus by 41-39. Weak.

The DCCC has filed nearly $1.6 million in media buys in support of House Democratic candidates tonight. Here’s the damage:

This is on top of $1.4 million in media buys filed in 15 other districts yesterday. Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has spent money on TV ads in LA-06, NJ-03, NM-02, NV-03, and WI-08.

For more details on these and other expenditures, please consult SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker.

First, some numbers to chew on from 2006:

Jill Derby (D): 104,593

Dean Heller (R): 117,168

Tessa Hafen (D): 98,261

Jon Porter (R): 102,232

Now, some more numbers to chew on. Let’s compare the voter registration numbers from Nevada in November 2006 and August 2008. In the chart below, let’s tally the Democratic and Republican registration advantages in all three of Nevada’s congressional districts from both time periods, with blue indicating a Democratic registration advantage and red indicating a GOP advantage. Here’s what we get:

Statewide, Democrats have turned a voter registration deficit of 4,000 into an advantage of 62,000 in less than two years. The biggest shift is in Clark County, where Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley’s 1st District is getting even bluer, and where the ground is shifting rapidly under GOP Rep. Jon Porter’s feet in the 3rd District. Porter is going to have his work cut out for him against Democrat Dina Titus this fall.

It’s also not hard to see why Jill Derby was tempted to make another run in the 2nd District: the reduction of the GOP’s voter registration advantage is bigger than her losing margin in 2006. However, with the increased turnout of a presidential year, she’s going to have a heck of a challenge persuading the big chunk of independent voters that she’ll need to close the gap.

Overall, these are very encouraging signs for Democrats up and down the ballot this fall.

(Proudly cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

I’m so excited to kick off our new “C4O Spotlight” series today. As you all know by now, a Democratic victory isn’t complete without electing more & better Democrats to Congress. So in that spirit, I’d like to introduce you all to someone very special. Please meet our first C4O All-Star.

As I talked about last weekend, I still have fond memories of my trip to Las Vegas last January. My friends & I helped make a difference in getting Democrats out to caucus. I was able to see Hillary & Bill Clinton in person for the very first time. And yes, I was also able to witness Dina Titus in action.

Dina Titus has been dedicated to serving the people of Suburban Las Vegas in the twenty years she’s served in the Nevada State Senate, fifteen of those also working as the Senate Democratic Leader. She’s worked to preserve Southern Nevada natural treasures like Red Rock Canyon, expand health care access to working families in Nevada, and improve the schools that serve Nevada’s kids. Oh, and when she’s not in the Senate, she’s busy teaching American & Nevada government at the University of Nevada in Las Vegas.

But while Dina Titus has been working hard for Nevada’s working people, Republican incumbent Jon Porter has been busy serving only himself. He’s been a rubber stamp for Bush & Cheney ever since he first took office. He’s used his taxpayer funded Congressional office to raise money for his campaign. He’s consistently voted against the interests of Southern Nevada’s working families if they get in the way of what his fat cat corporate donors want. Basically, Jon Porter is yet another dirty Republican who needs a different kind of job.

Fortunately for us & for Las Vegans, Dina Titus has a great shot at beating Porter. Titus beat Porter by 4 points in the first public poll released. DC political watchers now officially consider this race a toss-up. Democrats have come from behind to take the lead in voter registration. Oh yes, and Barack Obama’s agressive Nevada campaign is sure to fire up turnout that can not only turn Nevada blue for Obama, but help Congressional candidates like Dina Titus win as well.

Oh, and let’s not forget all the high-profile help Dina Titus is receiving from some great progressive allies! The Sierra Club has endorsed her because she’s someone we can trust to fight for what’s best for our people and our planet. EMILY’s List has endorsed her becuase she’ll work her hardest for all the hard working women in Southern Nevada. Dina Titus has even been added to the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, which means that national Democrats are confident enough to invest in a victory here!

But you know what? Nonw of that matters if we don’t take action! I wouldn’t be here today if i didn’t think that Dina Titus deserves our

support. So please, please join us to take action and help Dina Titus & all our other great All-Star Democrats win. With real progressive fighters like Dina Titus in Congress, we can make a difference foe the better. So if you’re as committed to a better & stronger America as I am, please join me in helping great candidates like Dina Titus win. 🙂

(Proudly cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

Hello. I’m atdleft, someone you may know from Clintonistas for Obama or MyDD or The Liberal OC. I’m new to Swing State Project, so please don’t get too rough on me.

I just want to let you know that when we’re not obsessing over all things Presidential, my friends & I are looking for good Congressional candidates to support. We already have some idea of who looks good to us, but I’d like to hear from all of you on which candidates we should help out. Whild I’d love to be of use to everyone, I at least want to make sure I’m doing something for Democrats that: (a) can win & (b) will stick to good progressive values once elected.

Because I’m in the area and I’m already familiar with her, I’m all for Debbie Cook. She’s running against an extreme right-wing wacko incumbent, and she’s the first Democratic challenger since Loretta Sanchez (in 1996) who has a real chance of winning an Orange County, CA, House seat. I’m already doing whatever I can to help her win, and I encourage everyone else in the LA/OC area to do the same.

But what about everyone else living in other parts of the country? I feel terrible leaving them all out in the cold. That’s why I’m here today asking for suggestions.

So who should we love? Which candidates deserve our attention? Is Dina Titus the one who can finally upset Jon Porter in NV-03? Can Charlie Brown blow away GOP carpetbagger Tom McClintock in CA-04? Is the second time the charm for Darcy Burner (WA-08) & Christine Jennings (FL-13)? And can Jeff Merkley (OR-Sen), Tom Udall (NM-Sen), & Jeanne Shaheen (NH-Sen) help us expand our Senate majority?

So who should we love? Tell me now. If you make a good case, you might see big chances with this ActBlue page & some diaries from me promoting your favorite candidate(s). 😉

The Swing State Project is upgrading its rating of the race for Nevada’s 3rd District from “Lean Republican” to “Tossup“.

Several factors have influenced our decision, not the least of which are two recent polls showing Porter in very rough shape. In both surveys, Porter is hovering near the 40% mark, well below the threshold of vulnerability for an incumbent. In an Anzalone-Liszt poll released today, Porter is actually trailing Titus by four points.

Titus is a well-known commodity in the district, and as we said earlier, she may stand to benefit from a sense of buyer’s remorse after voters narrowly opted to elect Jim Gibbons over her to the Governor’s mansion in 2006. (Gibbons has had a spectacularly awful and scandalous first term.) Even while losing her gubernatorial bid by four points, she won the 3rd District by two points. As a last-minute replacement candidate for attorney Robert Daskas, her fundraising has been stellar so far, and she won’t be hurting for outside assistance.

A D+1 district, the 3rd CD was designed to be fiercely competitive, but the winds seem to be shifting in the Democratic direction in recent months. According to the most recent numbers, Democrats have racked up a 24,000-strong voter registration advantage in the district.

This may be the type of environment that will finally do Jon Porter in.

Anzalone-Liszt for Dina Titus (7/23-28, likely voters):

Dina Titus (D): 43

Jon Porter (R-inc): 39

Other: 10

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Those are some nice numbers for Dina Titus. She may be benefiting from a sense of regret among voters who didn’t pull the lever for her in her 2006 gubernatorial campaign and are now stuck with the thoroughly awful and massively unpopular GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons. While Porter’s favorability rating is at 50-41, Titus is in stronger shape at 56-32.

The numbers aren’t far off from a recent Mason-Dixon survey that had Porter leading Titus by three points in the D+1 district. In fact, Anzalone may even be lowballing her support. The partisan sample of the poll is 42% Dem, 42% GOP and 16% independent. But according to the most recent numbers, Democrats have amassed a 24,000 voter registration edge in the district — a big gain from two years ago, when both parties were tied.

It’s quite clear that Jon Porter is in for the fight of his life. While SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, I think that we’ll have to revisit this rating very soon.

UPDATE: Excluding the third-party candidates, Titus’ lead widens:

When the third-party candidates were excluded and respondents were asked to choose only between Titus and Porter, Titus’ lead widened. In that scenario, Titus had the support of 50 percent, and Porter had 43 percent.

(H/T: DCal)

With only three and a half month left before election day, Nevada bloggers have joined forces and today announce the creation of the “Nevada Bloggers for Jill Derby and Dina Titus” ActBlue fundraising page.  

Dean Heller and Jon Porter were almost beaten in 2006 in what were the closest races the 2nd and 3rd Nevada Congressional Districts have seen to date. Considering that Democratic voter registration has significantly increased since 2006 and that Nevada will be a battleground state in the presidential contest both Jill Derby and Dina Titus have a big chance of beating the Republican incumbents this fall.

However, both have one disadvantage: they have significantly less cash-on-hand than the incumbents. While they both reported good fundraising numbers in the last quarter it will be hard to make up the time and incumbency advantages of Heller and Porter. Therefore, Jill Derby and Dina Titus need all the help they can get. Whether you can give $5,$20 or $100 – anything helps!

The following blogs have been and will continue to cover one or both of these contests and today we are announcing that we stand together to help elect Jill Derby and Dina Titus: Blue Sage Views, Desert Beacon, Helluva Heller, My Silver State, Nor’Town, Nye – Gateway to Nevada’s Rurals, Reno and Its Discontent, and Vote Gibbons Out.

We support Jill Derby and Dina Titus for Congress! Help us in our effort!

Mason-Dixon polls the battle for Nevada’s 3rd CD (6/9-11, likely voters, no trend lines):

Dina Titus (D): 42

Jon Porter (R-inc): 45

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±6.6%)

If this race is as close as the poll suggests, then Porter is in a lot of trouble. He never fared this badly in the polls against Democrat Tessa Hafen, whom he narrowly beat by a 48-47 margin in the 2006 cycle. Indeed, the closest poll of that race by Mason-Dixon came days before the election and showed Porter leading by 46-39. The fact that Titus is as close as she is only six weeks after launching her candidacy is both a testament to her high profile and Porter’s weaknesses, including his glaringly bad 36-56 job performance rating.

Recent registration drives in the state have produced a 20,000-strong Democratic voter registration advantage in the 3rd district, which used to be more evenly divided. This may prove to be Porter’s toughest year yet.

Over in the 2nd CD, the story is a bit different:

Jill Derby (D): 39

Dean Heller (R-inc): 53

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±6.6%)

In her rematch bid against freshman incumbent Heller, Jill Derby is facing an uphill climb in this R+8.2 district. Heller’s approval rating, at 52-44, could be stronger but still is in much better shape than Porter’s.

Derby’s candidacy will help spread the GOP thin, but turning Nevada completely blue will be a tough task.

SSP currently rates NV-02 as Likely Republican and NV-03 as Leans Republican.

Cross posted from My Silver State.

Remember 2004? When the incumbent Senate Democratic Leader was beaten when he was running for reelection in South Dakota? The first time the Republican  Senate Leader Bill Frist broke one of those so called DC “gentlemen’s agreeements” of not actively campaigning against the leader of the other party?

You want that to happen again in 2010?

No? Then follow me below the fold to see what you can do NOW to stop the Republicans from beating Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in 2010!

Why help Harry Reid now:

The Republican party in Nevada is as much in dire straits as the national party. However, that doesn’t mean they won’t put up a fight to defeat Harry Reid in 2010. Harry Reid once survived a very close race after against now Sen. John Ensign only after a recount (1998). In 2004 he won by a more than comfortable margin. However, that was before he was elected the leader of Senate Democrats. Because of his new leadership role his approval ratings in Nevada have suffered and Nevada Republicans have no greater goal but to topple Harry Reid in 2010.

Now, this is not about whether you like Harry Reid and his actions as the Senate Majority Leader. I’ve personally been very critical of him on several occasions. No, this is about whether you want the Republicans to once again take out the Democratic Leader in the Senate. And Republicans, in Nevada and nationally, will be itching for a fight in 2010 if they lose the White House and more seats in the Senate and the House. And who will be the most prominent target in 2010? Harry Reid.

Potential opponents:

Republicans already suffered pretty badly in 2006 when they lost four out of the six statewide constitutional offices. The only statewide incumbents right now are Gov. Jim Gibbons who is scandal plagued and currently divorcing his wife who has barrickaded herself in the Governor’s mansion. He’s lucky if he won’t either have to resign before 2010 or be primaried.

The other is Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki who seems to be more likely to succeed Gibbons than Reid.

The other top Republicans in the state are Sen. John Ensign who obviously can’t run against Reid and Congressmen Dean Heller (CD2) and Jon Porter (CD3). In 2006 Dean Heller barely managed to get above 50% in this open seat against Democrat Jill Derby. Porter barely won his reelection campaign in 2006 against Democrat Tessa Hafen. Hafen was a Reid staffer who received major financial backing from Reid. A sign that Reid thought Porter to be his strongest and most likely opponent in a future Senate race.

Once you’re done with the most obvious opponents, you have to search in the State Legislature or the local level to find a possible opponent for Reid. You might find one, whether it would be a strong and credible one is highly questionable as the Democrats are only one seat away from a 2/3 majority in the Assembly and just one seat away from getting the majority in the State Senate.

So, the two most likely opponents for Harry Reid are Congressmen Jon Porter and Dean Heller (in that order).

What you can do now:

In one sentence: help defeat Porter and Heller this fall.

Both are vulnerable. Currently, CQ rates CD 2 as Republican Favored and CD 3 as Leans Republican. However, that’s mostly on the basis of the Republicans current financial advantage. After serving as Nevada Democratic State Party Chair for the past year and preparing the state for the caucus in January, Jill Derby announced another run against Heller in late February. By the end of the first quarter filing deadline she had raised $144,000.

In CD 3 a lot of Democrats were mentioned as possible challengers last year. In the end Clark County prosecutor Robert Daskas was the candidate backed by most in the Democratic Party. He was added to the DCCC’d red to blue list in March. However, everyone was shocked when Daskas dropped out this month just two weeks before the filing deadline. Local Democrats, the DCCC and Daskas’ primary opponent Andrew Martin soon rallied around Senate Minority Leader and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Dina Titus. However, six months before the election Titus is at a serious fundraising disatvantage.



Why Jill Derby and Dina Titus can win:

So, both of our candidates are way behind in fundraising. Why, then, can they still win?

Jill Derby ran a hotly contested race in 2006 for a seat that Democrats have not seriously contested since Gov. Jim Gibbons first ran in 1996. While everyone pronounced this seat unwinable for any Democrat, Jill Derby ran a strong campaign and won 45% of the vote and kept Heller at 50%. One reason, Gibbons was even a serious contender for Governor and eventually won in 2006 is that Democrats never seriously contested his seat after his first election in 1996.

Two years later, the situation for Jill Derby is much better. She has new DC and national connections due to her time as State party chair during the caucus (which will help with fundraising), the caucus led to an increase in registered Democratic voters and Heller now has to run on his two year Bush rubber stamp record. The race has gained attention from national Democrats as Derby was endorsed by the Blue Dogs in Congress. Yes, I know, none of us are two fond of the Blue Dogs. That said, I’m happy about any help Jill Derby will get and this is after all still a pretty conservative district. When Derby talks about joining the Blue Dogs in Congress, she’s mostly talking about fiscal conservatism. Yet, she’s progressive on other issues, announcing her campaign at a green architecture form, has made health care and supporting SCHIP one of her main campaign themes (Heller voted against SCHIP). Also, her campaign will be managed by the former head of Americans Against the Escalation in Iraq in Nevada. Subsequently, she also endorsed the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq.

As for Dina Titus, she has actually already won in CD 3. In 2006 she won here by two points against Jim Gibbons in her run for Governor. Additionally, the district is trending Democratic as the registration advantage now is at 43% Dem, 37% Rep. Plus, Porter only won by 4,000 votes in 2006.

All Jill Derby and Dina Titus need now is the money to be competitive.

You can do three good deeds today:

You can help two great Democratic women get elected to Congress.

And you can help beat two possible opponents of Harry Reid.

All you need to do is give as much or little as you can and contribute through the My Silver State ActBlue page.

Links:

Jill Derby for Congress

Dina Titus for Congress

Helluva Heller – local blog with more information.

Mcjoan on Jill Derby in 2006.