Tag: MN-03

You might recall that after Republicans lost three out of four of their vacant House seats earlier this year, Stuart Rothenberg tried to reassure them and told the everything was going to be ok (“There there, you just had some bad nominees”). So I guess it comes as no surprise that when he comes across a Republican who can actuslly walk and chew gum at the same time, he went absolutely orgasmic, according to the Washngton Post’s Chris Cilizza.

Minnesota’s 3rd (Open seat, R): There’s no tougher grader of candidates for Congress than Stu Rothenberg. So when Stu praises a candidate, we listen. Of Republican Erik Paulsen, Stu wrote: “I wouldn’t say my interview with Erik Paulsen went well. I’d say it was spectacular.” (Stu’s column at Roll Call is subscriber-only.) WOW. Paulsen, a sitting state senator, has drawn similar reviews from Republican strategists who believe he is one of the most able candidates they have fielded this cycle. (The Fix has not yet met him — hint, hint.) Democrats nominated Ashwin Madia, an Iraq vet and first-time candidate.

I’ll leave it up to those of you in Minnesota to tell me how good Paulsen is, but this year it may not matter. From what I have seen about the district, it looks tailer-made for a strong Obama showing and a flip from red to blue. And Rothenberg better realize that just because the guy impressed him at a DC cocktail party, it doesn’t mean he will have much of a chance in November.

This just in: the DCCC has announced that congressional challengers Ashwin Madia (MN-03) and Walt Minnick (ID-01) have been added to the Red to Blue program.  Madia, fresh off the official endorsement of the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party in Minnesota, is running for the open seat vacated by the retiring Jim Ramstad (R).  Madia is a particularly notable figure because of his humble roots– he grew up in poverty, the son of immigrants from India– and because of his service as a Marine in the Iraq War.  His only Republican opponent at this time is State Rep. Erik Paulsen.

Walt Minnick is a Harvard-educated businessman and an advocate for environmental conservation.  He has a moderate track record in terms of his work for both political parties.  In running against Congressman Bill Sali, Minnick will give residents of the Boise region a chance to be represented by a competent person, rather than a complete nutjob.

So, congrats to both, and bravo to the DCCC– strength in numbers!  Woohoo!

MN Publius and MN Campaign Report have the scoop: State Sen. Terri Bonoff is dropping out and endorsing Iraq War vet and attorney Ashwin Madia for the DFL nomination in the open seat race to replace retiring GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad.

Though the writing had been on the wall for a while, Madia’s out-of-nowhere performance against Bonoff (long perceived the front-runner), has definitely been a stunner.  Madia will move on to take on Republican state Rep. Erik Paulsen in the general.  With a PVI of R+0.5, this seat will be hotly contested by both sides this fall.

Well, it looks like Boehner is starting to take matters into his own hands and rectify some of Tom Cole’s incompetence.

More after the fold…

Full article from cq politics:

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp…

It’s not uncommon for congressional leaders to steer fundraising assistance to party candidates who are in difficult races and in need of extra campaign cash. One such effort is the House Republicans’ “ROMP,” an acronym for Regain Our Majority Program, which has released its latest list of Republican candidates who will benefit from additional aid because they are politically vulnerable and/or have been targeted by the Democrats for defeat.

“ROMP 2008,” presently overseen by the political operation of House Minority Leader John A. Boehner of Ohio, was recently established in papers filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). These records identify the 10 newest recipients of the program’s assistance.

These candidates make up the first batch of ROMP candidates named this year, and the third since the current election cycle began in the 2007-08 cycle. The new recipients’ election contests are outlined below.

7/10 of the candidates were incumbents we ousted in the last election cycle.

• Michele Bachmann , Minnesota’s 6th District (North and east Twin Cities suburbs; St. Cloud). Bachmann was first elected in 2006 to succeed Republican Mark Kennedy, who lost his campaign for the U.S. Senate to Democrat Amy Klobuchar . The Democratic nominee for November’s election will be either Bob Olson, a lawyer, or Elwyn Tinklenberg, a former state transportation commissioner. The latter candidate initially campaigned for the Democratic nomination in 2006 but later deferred to Patty Wetterling, a child safety advocate who lost to Bachmann after also losing as the Democratic nominee against Kennedy in 2004.

• Vito J. Fossella , New York’s 13th (Staten Island; part of southwest Brooklyn). Fossella is the only House Republican who represents part of New York City. He saw his re-election percentage drop from 70 percent in 2002 to 59 percent in 2004, and then again to 57 percent in 2006 even though Democratic challenger Steve Harrison didn’t raise much money. Harrison, a lawyer, is seeking a rematch, though he faces a well-funded primary opponent in New York City Councilman Domenic Recchia.

• Sam Graves , Missouri’s 6th (Northwest – St. Joseph, part of Kansas City). Graves’ campaign for a fifth term may well be the toughest of his career. His Democratic opponent, former Kansas City mayor Kay Barnes, is well-known and well-funded.

• Ric Keller , Florida’s 8th (Central – most of Orlando). Keller won a fourth term in 2006 by a 7 percentage-point margin over Democrat Charlie Stuart, a marketing executive who is one of several Democrats seeking the 2008 nomination.

• Anne M. Northup, Kentucky’s 3rd (Louisville Metro). Northup, who served in the House from 1997 through 2006, is challenging Democratic freshman Yarmuth, who unseated her by a margin of less than 3 percentage points. Northup hadn’t planned a bid to reclaim her seat this year, but she jumped in after the Republican she had been backing, lawyer Erwin Roberts, dropped out of the race to fulfill his military obligations. Northup sought a quick political comeback last year but lost a primary challenge to then-Gov. Ernie Fletcher, who subsequently lost the general election to Democrat Steve Beshear.

• Erik Paulsen, Minnesota’s 3rd (Hennepin County suburbs – Bloomington, Brooklyn Park, Plymouth). Paulsen, a state representative, is the presumed Republican nominee in this suburban Minneapolis district, which retiring Republican Jim Ramstad is giving up after nine terms. The Democratic nominee will either be state Sen. Terri Bonoff or Ashwin Madia, a lawyer and Iraq War veteran.

• Bill Sali , Idaho’s 1st (West – Nampa, Panhandle, part of Boise). The strong Republican leanings of this district are indisputable, as President Bush took 68 percent of the vote there in his 2004 election. But Sali underperformed in his 2006 election for the then-open 1st District seat, in which he defeated Democrat Larry Grant by the underwhelming vote of 50 percent to 45 percent. Grant is seeking the 2008 Democratic nomination along with Walt Minnick, a businessman who lost as the party’s losing Senate nominee against Republican Larry E. Craig in 1996. Sali is opposed in the May 27 Republican primary election by Matt Salisbury, an Iraq War veteran.

• Jean Schmidt , Ohio’s 2nd (Eastern Cincinnati and suburbs; Portsmouth). Schmidt, who is seeking a second full term in a district that usually exhibits strong Republican leanings, faces a rematch of her exceptionally close 2006 race against Democratic physician Victoria Wulsin. Schmidt won that contest by a margin of about 1 percentage point. In the primary elections that took place March 4, Schmidt was renominated with 57 percent of the Republican vote and Wulsin won with 58 percent on the Democratic side.

• Tim Walberg , Michigan’s 7th (South central – Battle Creek, Jackson). Walberg, a freshman, was elected in 2006 over Democrat Sharon Renier, a little-known and underfunded Democrat who lost by just 4 percentage points. The unexpectedly close outcome was influenced by a bitter Republican primary fight in which the very conservative Walberg unseated one-term GOP moderate Joe Schwarz. Renier is running again this year, though Democratic officials are rallying behind state Sen. Mark Schauer, a better-known and better-funded candidate.

• Darren White, New Mexico’s 1st (Central – Albuquerque). White is the sheriff of Bernalillo County, which includes Albuquerque and which is the population base of a politically competitive district that Republican Heather A. Wilson left open to pursue a U.S. Senate bid. White is opposed in the June 3 primary by state Sen. Joseph Carraro. The four Democratic primary candidates are Michelle Grisham, a former state health secretary; Martin Heinrich, a former Albuquerque councilman; Robert L. Pidcock, a lawyer; and Rebecca Vigil-Giron, a former New Mexico Secretary of State.

• IL-14: Novak claims that “important Illinois Republicans are urging” Jim Oberweis to drop out of the general election battle for Dennis Hastert’s old seat.  While not surprising, given Oberweis’ disastrous showing last week, such pleas are not likely to have any effect on the stubborn Oberweis, other than further damaging his credibility.

  It doesn’t help when other GOP candidates in Illinois, such as state Rep. Aaron Schock in IL-18, are giving quips such as this one:

  “Anybody in Illinois who knows Jim Oberweis knows that was not a referendum on the Republican Party; it was a referendum on Jim Oberweis,” Schock said. “The Republicans didn’t lose that race; Jim Oberweis lost that race.

  “The people that knew him best, liked him least.”

• MN-03: In what is shaping to be a surprising upset, Ashwin Madia, a young attorney and Iraq veteran, is closing in on the DFL endorsement for the nomination to contest the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad.  At conventions across the district yesterday, Madia won many more delegates than his rival, state Senator and once-presumptive front runner Terri Bonoff.  Both Madia and Bonoff have pledged to abide by the DFL endorsement, but the math is looking very bleak for Bonoff; Madia is less than 10 delegates away from the 95 he needs to clinch the endorsement.

  An internal poll commissioned by the Bonoff campaign showed Bonoff beating GOP state Rep. Eric Paulsen by a 44%-40% margin in a hypothetical general election match-up, while Madia trails by 43%-40%.  In any event, this will be a top tier contest.

• New Mexico: In a slate of “preprimary” nominating conventions, candidates for federal office in both parties had to cross a 20% threshold to make it onto the primary ballot.  As a result, some of the House primaries are a bit clearer.
  • NM-01: Martin Heinrich won 56% of the preprimary vote to Michelle Lujan-Grisham’s 28%.

    On the GOP side of the aisle, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White won 85% of the vote, leaving him unopposed on the primary ballot.

  • NM-02: Democrat Bill McCamley won 48.8% of the vote to Harry Teague’s 36.5%.  No other candidates qualified for the primary ballot.

    Rancher and businessman Aubrey Dunn, Jr. won the GOP vote with the support of 30% of delegates.  Businessmen C. Earl Greer and Ed Tinsley both also qualified for the ballot with 24% each.

  • NM-03: Ben R. Luján won 40% of delegates, and will face off against former Senate candidate Don Wiviott, who qualified for the primary ballot with 30% of the vote.
• MI-09: Jack Kevorkian is running for Congress as an independent against Republican incumbent Joe Knollenberg and Democratic challenger Gary Peters.  Oy.
• MD-01: The biggest joke of all?  The so-called “moderate” Republican Main Street Partnership is planning on endorsing Andy Harris, the Club For Growth nutcase who successfully dislodged anti-war GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest last month.  Gilchrest, on the other hand, plans to administer a written exam to any candidate seeking his endorsement:
  

  Included in that test would be questions about the history of the Middle East over the past 200 years, the economic and ecological history of the Chesapeake Bay, the importance of paying attention to unemployment and various other subjects, Gilchrest said.

  “I will endorse someone that has knowledge, integrity, is competent and sees the world in a panoramic manner in all its complexities and not through a bent straw,” Gilchrest said.

  Citing a retired Marine Corps general who has been highly critical of the Bush administration’s decision to go to Iraq, Gilchrest went on to say that “we must stop promoting incompetence in return for party loyalty.”

• IN-07: Andre Carson may be the newest kid on the block in Washington, but he still has a potentially raucous primary contest to clear in May before he gets too comfortable:
  

  State Rep. David Orentlicher officially launched his campaign Wednesday alongside Martin Luther King Jr.’s nephew, Derek King, while former health commissioner Woody Myers was set to launch television advertisements.

  State Rep. Carolene Mays will also pose a tough challenge to the newest congressman.

• AZ-03: This looks like fun.  Former state Rep. Steve May has filed to run against John Shadegg in the Republican primary.  May has previously pledged to spend $1 million on the bid.

These are all states with filing deadlines in the first half of July

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

WI has 8 congressional districts. 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans

LA has 7  congressional districts. 2 Democrats and 5 Republicans

MN has 8 congressional districts. 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans

The districts held by Democrats are



                                     Confirmed

dist    Cook Prob Repub Incumbent     Challenger? rating

LA-02   D+28   .04      Jefferson       No        Safe for a Democrat,

                                                 primary possible

LA-03   R+5    .35      Melancon        No        Mostly safe

MN-01   R+1    .74      Walz            Yes       Somewhat vul

MN-04   D+13   .30      McCollum        Yes       Safe

MN-05   D+21   .22      Ellison         Yes       Safe

MN-07   R+6    .80      Peterson        No        Safe

MN-08   D+4    .80      Oberstar        No        Safe

WI-02   D+13   .65      Baldwin         Yes       Safe

WI-03   D+3    .81      Kind            No        Safe

WI-04   D+20   .12      Moore           No        Safe

WI-07   D+2    .79      Obey            No        Safe

WI-08   R+4    .73      Kagen           Yes       Somewhat vul



Those held by Republicans

LA-01 R+18  .50

If you picture LA as a boot, LA-01 is the top of the toes, bordering MS, lake Pontchartrain and the Gulf of Mexico.

Jindal, first elected in 2004, won election as governor and will be retiring.

Gilda Reed is the only confirmed Democratic challenger.

LA-04 R+7 .36

LA-04 is the western edge of LA, bordering TX and AR

McCrery, first elected in 1988, has won easily in LA’s odd ‘primary only’ system, far outraising his opponents; now, he will retire

There are no confirmed challengers, but lots of interested parties.

LA-05 R+10 .39

LA-05 is the northeast part of the ‘leg’ of the boot.

Alexander, first elected in 2002, was a Democrat, but switched to the Republicans (what? he doesn’t like being in the majority?) In the 2006 runoff he won easily

No confirmed opponent

LA-06 R+7 .33

LA-06 is Baton Rouge and surrounding areas

Baker, first elected in 1986, is retiring

The only confirmed candidate (of either party!) is Don Cazayoux .

LA-07 R+7  .39

LA-07 is the southwestern part of LA, bordering TX and the Gulf

Boustany, first elected in 2004, had a fairly close race then, but won easily in 2006 against an underfunded opponent

There are no confirmed opponents.

MN-02 R+3 .78

MN-02 is the area south of the twin cities

Kline, first elected in 2002, has had reasonably challenging races, never getting over 56%

The only confirmed challenger is Steve Sarvi

MN-03 R+1 .66

MN-03 is the northern and western (and some southern) suburbs of the twin cities.

Ramstad, first elected in 1990, might (or might not) be retiring.

There are a couple of confirmed challengers: Terri Bonoff and Jigar Madia

MN-06 R+5 .84

MN-06 is an odd shaped district that includes a blob in the middle of MN, and then extends east to the WI border and wraps around the twin cities

Bachmann, first elected in 2006, won 50-42 against Wetterling, even though Wetterling raised more money ($3.1 million to $2.6 million).

There are two confirmed challengers: Bob Olson and Elwyn Tinklenberg (no web site)

WI-01 R+2 .66

WI-01 is the southeastern corner of WI, bordering IL and Lake Michigan

Ryan, first elected in 1998, has won easily against underfunded opponents

There are two confirmed challengers: Marge Krupp and Paulette Garin

WI-05 R+12 .76

WI-05 is in eastern WI, it wraps around Milwaukee, and borders Lake Michigan

Sensensbrenner, first elected in 1978, has won easily even when his opponents raised some funds.  He might retire,

No confirmed challengers

WI-06 R+5 .76

WI-06 is central eastern WI, bordering Lake Michigan and running west to Marquette county

Petri, first elected in 1979, has not had  a close race since 1992, and often has no opposition.

This year, his challenger is Roger Kittleson (no web site)

Summary

LA – I don’t know what’s going on in LA-06

MN – MN-03 is a definite opportunity.  MN-02 might be

WI – Kagen is vulnerable – it’s a swing district and he’s had some controversy.  

Happy New Year, everyone!  I hope you all had a relaxing holiday season.  I’m feeling rested and refreshed, so let’s take a look at some of the recent developments in down-ballot races across the country.

• NY-19: Strike three!  After uber-wealthy self-funding Republican Andrew Saul pulled the plug on his congressional campaign against freshman Rep. John Hall after some shady ethics violations came to the fore, some Republicans hoped that former state assemblyman Howard Mills would be an adequate replacement.  Too bad he said no in late November.  The next great hope for the NRCC, assemblyman Greg Ball, announced yesterday that he won’t run, either.  This leaves the GOP’s ball in the hands of Iraq war vet and wingnut Kieran Lalor.  Will the Republicans really end up without a top flight challenger in a district that they held for 14 straight years before Hall’s win?

  Perhaps now is a good time to revisit Ball’s sage words from November, when the GOP line on the NY-19 ballot was his for the taking:

  Ball is concerned about the electoral outlook for the GOP in the 2008 election cycle.

  “George Bush has not only hurt the Republican Party, he’s left the nation without leadership,” the Republican state lawmaker said. “It’s going to be a tough year to run as a Republican at the national level.”





• IN-02: Speaking of the GOP’s bare shelf, a whole year has passed and Indiana Republicans are still lacking a challenger to frosh Rep. Joe Donnelly.  Has NRCC Chair Tom Cole really gone through his entire Rolodex of ethically-challenged Republican millionaires who live in this R+4.3 district? (H/T: Blue Indiana)




• Kentucky: The Lexington Herald-Leader’s blog has a thorough run-down of all the upcoming down-ballot special elections in the weeks and months ahead in Kentucky.  The first two happen next week.




• NM-Sen: New Mexico’s very own Dr. Doolittle, political gossip blogger Joe Monahan, has been talking to “the alligators” again, and this time they’re telling him that Steve Pearce outraised Heather Wilson in the fourth quarter by a margin of $450,000 to $350,000.  Seems kinda low-ish to me, but I suppose that’s probably the end result of having the state’s GOP money divided between two of their heaviest hitters.




• NM-02: State Rep. Joe Cervantes (D) has dropped out of the race to replace Steve Pearce, leaving former Lea County Commissioner and oilman Harry Teague and Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley as the only top-tier candidates left in the Dem field.  Monahan thinks the news will favor Teague, a conservative Democrat, but McCamley’s fundraising has been solid and he’s been running for quite some time.  It’ll be interesting to see how this one shakes out.




• MN-03: MNPublius is hearing rumors that GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad’s retirement is definite.  Let’s hope that they’re true!




• IL-18: Aaron Schock, a 14-year old GOP state legislator and nuclear proliferation advocate, is doing his best to avoid any foreign policy debates with his primary opponents for the open seat of retiring Rep. Ray LaHood.  I guess Schock has now fully realized that his “ideas” of selling nukes to Taiwan don’t play so well outside of his local college Republican chapter.




• IN-07: State Rep. Joe Orentlicher is the first to file for the Democratic nomination to succeed the late Rep. Julia Carson.  Carson’s grandson, newly-elected Indianapolis city councilor will make his decision soon, but it’s looking like he’ll throw his hat into the ring.  It’s also looking like the special election to fill the seat may be pushed back until May.

Oh great:

Rep. Jim Ramstad (R-Minn.) is seriously reconsidering his previously announced decision to retire in 2008 and could reverse course and run for re-election, according to Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill familiar with his thinking. […]

Calls to Ramstad’s office seeking comment for this story Tuesday were not returned.

Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-R.I.), who is one of Ramstad’s closest friends in the House, said on Tuesday that Ramstad is indeed having second thoughts about his decision to leave the House. Ramstad and Kennedy have been champions of mental health parity legislation and the Rhode Island Democrat said the possibility that Congress could pass the legislation next year was weighing on Ramstad.

“It’s very much impacting his decision,” Kennedy said.

Kennedy said he felt that Ramstad would feel more comfortable leaving if leadership on both sides of the Capitol would agree to pass the mental health bill through both chambers early in the new year.

Kennedy also asserted that Ramstad has in some regards become a bargaining piece in the debate over passage of the mental health parity bill, citing the fact that Ramstad’s district is expected to be a hotly contested battleground if he sticks to his retirement decision.

“Democrats know that his seat would be in play,” Kennedy said. “He’s a bargaining chip right now. … If Democrats want to pick up a seat, all they need to say very frankly and clearly is ‘we’re going to make this happen.'”

Ramstad’s moderate district is just the kind of turf that Democrats do well in during open seat races, and just the kind of territory that Dems need to capture in order to expand their House majority.  Having Ramstad stick around for another race would make him the prohibitive favorite.

A change of heart by Ramstad would perhaps be the biggest Christmas gift he could offer to the NRCC.

UPDATE: MN Campaign Report has been hearing the same rumors.  Apparently, Jim McCrery’s retirement caused Ramstad to reconsider, figuring that the advanced seniority on some key committees might be too attractive to turn down.  If this turns out to be the case, the GOP’s retirement bonanza truly is a tragedy of riches for Democrats.

After Rep. Jim Ramstad (R) announced his retirement in September, state Sen. Terri Bonoff (D) jumped into the race quickly, and succeeded in clearing many of her potential primary competitors from the field after raising nearly $90K in a week.  But, it looks like she’ll be getting some company very soon in Republican-turned-Democrat Jim Hovland, the mayor of Edina:

Edina Mayor Jim Hovland said at a local DFL meeting Monday that he would file papers “in the next couple of days” for a run at the congressional seat being vacated by Republican Jim Ramstad next year.

In recent interviews, Hovland has made it clear that he was leaning strongly toward a run, but has previously left himself an out.  However, according to more than one attendee of Monday’s Senate District 41 meeting, he is now making it about as official as can be. […]

At least one activist at the SD41 meeting Monday said he would be supporting Hovland, saying he is “convinced he [Hovland]’s pretty darn progressive for a reformed Republican.”

A third candidate, Iraq War vet Ashwin Madia, is also in the race (and his online fundraising suggests that he’s taking it seriously).

MNPublius has video of all three candidates.  I’ll be interested to see how this one shakes out.

In an interview with Minnesota Public Radio, state Rep. Erik Paulsen, the leading Republican candidate to replace retiring Rep. Jim Ramstad (R-MN), offers his thoughts on the coming Congressional campaign:

“This is absolutely another wonderful opportunity to enter public service at a different level, focusing on issues like globalization and issues that I think that I genuinely care about and I think have learned a lot about some expertise on now and try to carry that to a new level as we do try to educate our kids for a global economy,” he said. “So that’s something in the back of my mind that definitely interests me and the opportunity, and I think I would do a good job.”

This guy needs to re-take “Soundbytes For The Media 101”.

(Hat-tip: MNPublius)