Tag: Elizabeth Dole

Crossposted at both BlueNC and dailykos.

This post is a continuation of my prior diary exploring where Elizabeth Dole lives.  In this diary we delve into the world of voter fraud, and wonder whether the Doles are separated or if they live together in Washington, DC?

Personally, I find it highly doubtful that Liddy’s marriage is on the rocks.  By all accounts their marriage is happy.  I haven’t ever seen any rumors to indicate that Bob’s endorsement of Viagra was meant for any woman other than Liddy (although she did just have hip replacement?)

Anyway, the question must be asked.  Are they even married?  Bob Dole has been registered to vote in Kansas for many years.  Elizabeth Dole was too for a few decades.  In 2001, her voter registration was changed to the state of North Carolina.  What is wrong with their marriage that they live in different states?  Are they separated?  Are they contemplating divorce?  If two people live in different states for over 6 years are they considered married?

This is important, because if they are still married, and they still live in the same house, then one of them is committing voter fraud.  If they are not living in the same house, then what does that say about their family values?

Let me give you a little quote from North Carolina law.  Recognizing, of course, that neither Bob nor Liddy would ask for this; would it be possible to end their marriage right now?  Well…

Marriages may be dissolved and the parties thereto divorced from the bonds of matrimony on the application of either party, if and when the husband and wife have lived separate and apart for one year, and the plaintiff or defendant in the suit for divorce has resided in the State for a period of six months.
::snip::
Whether there has been a resumption of marital relations during the period of separation shall be determined pursuant to G.S. 52_10.2.  Isolated incidents of sexual intercourse between the parties shall not toll the statutory period required for divorce predicated on separation of one year.

  The statute mentioned in that quote states that a resumption of marital status must be shown by “a totality of the circumstances.”

I highly doubt that living in different houses for 6 years is considered to be a totality of circumstances.

Now lets move on to tax law.  As all of you should know, a married couple has the ability to either file taxes jointly or separately.  Presumably, to file a joint return, you must live at the same address.  As recently as 1996 the Dole’s were still filing their taxes jointly.  I wonder which address they have chosen as their permanent address for tax purposes?

To be fair, they could very well be filing separately.  It might even make financial sense for them to do so.  But are they using the same address?  Or is Bob filing in Kansas and Liddy in North Carolina?  Or are they filing jointly in Washington, DC?  As mentioned in my prior post, both Liddy and Bob’s addresses on their various property deeds say Washington, DC.

I was unable to get a hold of their actual tax forms, but I would love to take a look.

Lets review the facts.
The Doles are registered to vote in two different states.
Both have the same address listed on their many deeds.
In the past they have filed taxes jointly, indicating they live in the same home.

But are they committing voter fraud?  In Kansas, election law only requires that a person reside in the state for more than 15 days before the election.  Dole could meet this requirement simply by using his house in Russell as a hotel for 2 weeks and would be fine.  But what about Liddy?

Election law in North Carolina requires a longer stay, one of 30 days, but it is also a little more detailed in its protection.  It says,

That place shall be considered the residence of a person in which that person’s habitation is fixed, and to which, whenever that person is absent, that person has the intention of returning.
::snip::
The establishment of a secondary residence by an elected official outside the district of the elected official shall not constitute prima facie evidence of a change of residence.

But, there is a very important distinction between a secondary residence and a permanent residence to which you plan on returning.

Now, I would not want to commit a felony, or even a misdemeanor, by saying that either Dole is committing voter fraud.  What I will say is that there are some very serious questions that we must ask.  The answers to these questions will give us proof that either the Doles are committing voter fraud, or they are in fact living in different states.

And, if none of the above has convinced you that something fishy is going on here, I submit this video put together by my friends at WNCNN.

Over at BlueNC, justing, brings our attention to a new poll conducted in North Carolina.

I say new because it was released today, although the poll was in the field almost 3 weeks ago.  What is most important about this poll was that it was conducted by the DSCC.  They are paying attention!

The results?  Dole is in big trouble, and North Carolina hates George Bush.  Before going too far into the poll results, let me point out that this poll asked the question, “Who did you vote for in 2004?”  The respondents matched up to the state’s actual total, 56% Bush and 43% Kerry.

Generally speaking, do you think that things in the nation are going in the right direction these days, or do you feel that things have gotten off on the wrong track?
Right Direction 22%
Wrong Direction 68%
Not Sure 10%

How would you rate the job that George W. Bush is doing overall as president – would you say that he is doing an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job?
Excellent 10%
Good Job 26%
Fair Job 26%
Poor Job 38%

Those numbers match up fairly closely to what other polls have shown across the state.  North Carolina might have taken a little longer than others, but we know George Bush is bad.

Now for Dole

How would rate the job that Elizabeth Dole is doing as U.S. senator – would you say that she is doing an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job?
Excellent 11%
Good Job 38%
Fair Job 33%
Poor Job 13%
Unsure 5%

When you add it up that is a 49 to 46 approve to dissaprove ratio.  +3 is beyond bad for an incumbent, it is bordering on Santorum numbers.

Looking ahead to the next election for U.S. senator, will you vote to reelect Elizabeth Dole, consider voting for someone else, or vote to replace Elizabeth Dole with someone new?
Reelect Dole 35%
Consider someone else 26%
Replace 23%
Depends 9%
Not sure 7%

In other words, against no named opponent Dole “leads” 35 to 23.  Do I need to repeat that?  THIRTY FIVE TO TWENTY THREE.  The minute someone declares their intention to run against her this becomes a top tier target.  For a list of possible names please read this diary that I did last week.

North Carolina Senator Elizabeth Dole is still showing vulnerability in recent polls, even if her opponent in not Mike Easley. A new poll has Dole leading 45-30 against Congressman Bob Etheridge.

A new poll out Wednesday has Republican U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole dominating a hypothetical race against Democratic U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge, but the numbers expose a few weaknesses for the incumbent senator, the poll’s author said.

Dole, of Salisbury, has been dogged by rumors about whether she will run in 2008, especially in the wake of a catastrophic outcome for Senate Republicans after her term as chairwoman of the National Republican Senatorial Campaign.

Dole says she’s running.

The poll, by Public Policy Polling, shows Dole running ahead of Etheridge, 45 percent to 30 percent, among likely voters.

But Dean Debnam, president of the company, pointed out that Dole enjoys more name recognition than Etheridge, a Lillington congressman known mostly in his district south and east of the Triangle.

“Dole is not necessarily in a very strong position,” Debnam said.

Etheridge’s name has been floated in the past as a possible senatorial candidate. His spokeswoman said Wednesday he isn’t planning a Senate run in 2008.

“Right now his focus is on working on his committees on issues important to North Carolina,” said spokeswoman Joanne Peters.

Dole political consultant Mark Stephens disputed the accuracy of the poll, which was conducted through automatic phone calls. Respondents signaled their choices by punching numbers on the phone.

“I don’t know a campaign worth its salt that would utilize this kind of polling,” Stephens said. “They don’t even know who they’re talking to on the other end of the phone. It could be a 12-year-old kid.”

Debnam said the polling group will pit other hypothetical candidates, perhaps including U.S. Rep. Brad Miller of Raleigh, against Dole in future polls.

A poll by the group last month showed Gov. Mike Easley beating Dole by 44 percent to 41 percent.

The Dole-Etheridge poll was conducted Monday by automatic phone calls of 448 likely voters. The survey’s margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

Granted, the sample size is small, but it mirrors similar problems she is having in a hypothetical match-up against former Gov. Easley, who has thus far declined to run. Some will also point to Jesse Helms who constantly polled terribly but won elections. But I would argue that Dole does not command the rabid loyalty that Helms did. She’s clearly vulnerable and we need to keep up the pressure.

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

(Cross-posted on my DKos diary.  I originally posted this to my blog on February 4, but I want to get the input of the DKos and SSP communities on the topic.  What have you heard in your states?  Note that since I posted this, Thad Cochran has delayed his retirement vs. re-election bid decision, and Pete Domenici has made stronger assertions toward a re-election bid.  Also, Frank Lautenberg has made his intentions crystal clear.)

We know that the numbers favor Senate Democrats in 2008.  21 GOP vs. 12 Democratic Senators up for re-election gives the GOP a great deal more territory to have to protect.  And, as hard as it can be to hold incumbent seats, it’s even harder to retain open seats.  This again favors the Democrats, as there are many more Republican Senators on “Retirement Watch.”

DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer has said that he has gotten assurances from every Democratic Senator that they are all running for re-election, except for Iowa’s Tom Harkin, who has since demonstrated public steps toward a re-election bid.

Aside from Harkin, I’m not sold that New Jersey’s Frank Lautenberg is definitely going to run for re-election, which might not be a bad thing given Lautenberg’s low approval ratings and NJ’s wealth of Democratic Congresspeople waiting for a promotion, not to mention that Lautenberg is the Democrats’ oldest 2008 incumbent by just over a decade.

Also, Delaware’s Joe Biden is looking at the White House, but is hardly a favorite to win the nomination in 2008, meaning that he will likely opt for Senate re-election and have plenty of time to do so.

This leaves only the recovering Tim Johnson of South Dakota as a significant question mark, and even his camp is showing signs, from staffing to fundraising, that a re-election bid could still be on the horizon, health-permitting.

Meanwhile, more than half of the GOP’s 21 incumbents are on the retirement watch spectrum.  After spending much of the last decade-plus in the majority party, many of these Senators will find that spending 2007 in the minority will make for a less pleasant work environment.  And with many states, like Colorado and Virginia, on a blue-trend, some Republican Senators may opt for retirement rather than risking ending their career on a loss.  Beyond that, many Republican Senators are just really old.

1) Colorado’s Wayne Allard: Definitely retiring

2) Maine’s Susan Collins: Is under a self-imposed term-limit-pledge, but is planning a re-election bid.  However, if Tom Allen gets in the race and Collins’ broken promise becomes a major issue, with polling going strongly Allen’s way, it’s not inconceivable that Collins would step aside

3) Virginia’s John Warner: Publicly leans one way, then publicly leans the other – definitely considering retirement

4) Alaska’s Ted Stevens: Is 200 years old and threatens to retire every time he doesn’t get his way on a vote – claims to be preparing for a re-election bid, but we’ll see

5) Mississippi’s Thad Cochran: Publicly undecided on a re-election bid and says he may not make up his mind until November

6) Nebraska’s Chuck Hagel: Considering a White House bid, with rumors afoot that he may retire from the Senate regardless of a Presidential bid

7) Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander: Was considering retiring until he received choice committee assignments – still not publicly confirmed for re-election, though – if he dislikes serving in the minority enough, he may just hang it up

8) New Mexico’s Pete Domenici: not publicly committed to a re-election bid, as rumors of retirement thoughts persist, as well as rumors of a questionable mental state, including wandering the halls of Congress in his pajamas

9) North Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole: her staff has claimed that she’s planning on re-election, but she has not made any definitive comments; meanwhile, many factors, including her age, her horrible job as NRSC Chair, and her recent hip replacement, suggest that retirement may be a strong possibility – also, polling has the reluctant Mike Easley ahead of Dole; if he got in, maybe she’d prefer to avoid a tough re-election campaign

10) Texas’ John Cornyn: While he is very clearing planning a re-election bid, he is also one of Bush’s top choices (if not Bush’s first choice) for a Supreme Court opening should there be one more before the end of Bush’s term – granted, I’d rather have Cornyn in the Senate running for re-election than enjoying a lifetime seat on the Supreme Court

11) Oklahoma’s Jim Inhofe: Rumors exist that he is considering retirement, though this is a rare situation (perhaps akin to NJ’s Lautenberg) where the non-incumbent party might have an easier time beating the incumbent than a replacement (say former Governor Frank Keating)

12) Idaho’s Larry Craig: Another situation of more rumors circulating while Craig waits on a formal public announcement one way or the other

Running (or most likely running) for re-election: Saxby Chambliss (GA), Norm Coleman (MN), Mike Enzi (WY), Lindsey Graham (SC), Mitch McConnell (KY), Pat Roberts (KS), Jeff Sessions (AL), Gordon Smith (OR), John Sununu (NH)

Though only one retirement is announced, if the stars aligned well enough, the GOP could face a meltdown with more than a half-dozen retirements.  While we can’t hang our hats on that many open seats, we can probably expect a couple more to follow Wayne Allard.