Tag: Field Poll

Field Poll (pdf) (3/9-15, likely voters, 1/5-17 in parens, 9/18-10/6 in brackets):

Meg Whitman (R): 63 (45) [22]

Steve Poizner (R): 14 (17) [9]

Undecided: 23 (38) [49]

(MoE: ±5.5%)

Jerry Brown (D): 43 (46) [50]

Meg Whitman (R): 46 (36) [29]

Undecided: 11 (18) [21]

Jerry Brown (D): 49 (48) [50]

Steve Poizner (R): 32 (31) [25]

Undecided: 19 (21) [25]

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Whitman’s had the airwaves to herself, utterly pummeling state Insurance Co. Steve Poizner into submission. Unless Poizner can hit back, the chances of seeing a Westley/Angelides-style dogfight for the GOP nomination look pretty grim, indeed.

Fun stat: 8% of voters who “identify a lot” with the Tea Party movement favor Brown over Whitman. (Not that it matters, though, as 20% of Democrats defect to Whitman.) Whatever the case, it certainly appears that Brown is no longer in control of this race.

Field Poll (pdf) (1/5-17, likely voters, 9/18-10/6):

Meg Whitman (R): 45 (22)

Steve Poizner (R): 17 (9)

Tom Campbell (R): NA (20)

Undecided: 38 (49)

(MoE: ±7.1%)

Jerry Brown (D): 46 (50)

Meg Whitman (R): 36 (29)

Undecided: 18 (21)

Jerry Brown (D): 48 (50)

Steve Poizner (R): 31 (25)

Undecided: 21 (25)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

Ex-Gov. Jerry Brown still leads both his potential Republican opponents by solid margins, but it’s worth noting that they’ve made some headway at eating into his once-huge leads. A lot of that has to do with the money that the remaining Republican zillionaires, Meg Whitman and Insurance Comm. Steve Poizner, have been pouring into the race, much from their own pockets, helping them to become better-known… and that Brown has been taking a decidedly hands-off approach to the race (at least publicly) while the other two hit the airwaves. Although he no longer has to worry about a competitive primary, at some point Brown should probably emerge from his meditation chamber and start engaging the race.

Both Republicans added to their numbers in the wake of ex-Rep. Tom Campbell’s jump over to the Senate race, although Meg Whitman seemed to gain the lion’s share. Campbell’s dropout occurred when the poll was in the field; prior to his dropout, they were finding him solidly in second in the GOP primary, at 36-22-9. Whitman is not only better-known than Poizner but better-liked; she has 25/20 favorables, compared with Poizner in negative numbers: 16/20 (Brown clocks in at 44/32).

RaceTracker Wiki: CA-Gov

Field Poll (pdf) (1/5-17, likely voters, 9/18-10/6 in parentheses):

Tom Campbell (R): 30 (NA)

Carly Fiorina (R): 25 (21)

Chuck DeVore (R): 6 (20)

Undecided: 39 (59)

(MoE: ±7.1%)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 48 (NA)

Tom Campbell (R): 38 (NA)

Undecided: 14 (NA)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 50 (49)

Carly Fiorina (R): 35 (35)

Undecided: 15 (16)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 51 (50)

Chuck DeVore (R): 34 (33)

Undecided: 15 (17)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

The Field Poll (it’s become kind of cliched to refer to them as the “gold standard” for California pollsters, but their reputation precedes them) checks in on the California Senate race for the first time since September, with one big change: the switchover of ex-Rep. Tom Campbell from the Governor’s race to the Senate race. It looks like Campbell knew what he was doing, getting out of the GOP governor’s field where he was financially outgunned (as seen today, where it’s barely newsworthy that Meg Whitman just fronted herself another $20 million), and immediately moving into the lead in the GOP field.

Campbell had released an internal poll last week that showed him leading Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore 31-15-12, suggesting that he was eating equally into Fiorina and DeVore supporters. But the Field poll suggests that this is almost coming entirely out of DeVore’s share — initially strange since there’s a sharp contrast between Campbell’s Silicon Valley moderatism and DeVore’s O.C. conservatism. But it makes sense when you think that much of DeVore’s support was coming from the seemingly ascendant libertarian side of the party (and that social conservatives have been unusually quiet lately), and many of them are likely to embrace the socially liberal but fiscally hawkish Campbell.

As for the general, Field sees little movement in the last four months in the Boxer/Fiorina and Boxer/DeVore matchups, suggesting that Barbara Boxer hasn’t seemed to sustain much personal damage from the withering of the Democratic brand. As I’d feared, though, the amiable and well-known Campbell polls noticeably better against Boxer than the others — at ten points, not enough to start hitting the panic button, but indicating that this race will need to be carefully monitored. (Rasmussen recently showed this a closer tace than that, but, well, what else is new.) Taking into account Campbell’s apparent likelihood of winning the primary and the overall national environment, that’s enough for us to move this race back onto the board at “Likely Democratic.”

RaceTracker Wiki: CA-Sen

Field Poll (pdf) (9/18-10/6, likely voters, primary trendlines from March):

Carly Fiorina (R): 21 (31)

Chuck DeVore (R): 20 (19)

Undecided: 59 (50)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 49

Carly Fiorina (R): 35

Undecided: 16

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 50

Chuck DeVore (R): 33

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±3.2%)

With the exception of a Rasmussen sample from July, Barbara Boxer has been posting double-digit leads against her Republican opposition. Today’s release from the respected Field Poll is no exception; she beats former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina by 14 and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore by 17. Boxer is hovering right around the safety zone of 50% — same with her approvals, which are 48/39 — but considering the approvals of her opponents (9/9 for DeVore, not well-known outside Orange County, and 12/16 for Fiorina, reviled in tech circles for her HP tenure) she’s looking pretty safe.

The more interesting part of the poll is the GOP primary, where the more conservative DeVore is starting to draw even with Fiorina. Based on trendlines from March, DeVore isn’t gaining so much as Fiorina is losing support to the “undecided” column, as she seems to be racing Meg Whitman to see whose campaign can implode first, what with Fiorina’s own tepid voting record and the universally-panned launch of her new website.

RaceTracker Wiki: CA-Sen

Field Poll (pdf) (9/18-10/6, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jerry Brown (D): 47

Gavin Newson (D): 27

Undecided: 26

Meg Whitman (R): 22

Tom Campbell (R): 20

Steve Poizner (R): 9

Undecided: 49

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Jerry Brown (D): 50

Meg Whitman (R): 29

Undecided: 21

Jerry Brown (D): 48

Tom Campbell (R): 27

Undecided: 25

Jerry Brown (D): 50

Steve Poizner (R): 25

Undecided: 25

Gavin Newsom (D): 40

Meg Whitman (R): 31

Undecided: 29

Gavin Newsom (D): 38

Tom Campbell (R): 33

Undecided: 29

Gavin Newsom (D): 39

Steve Poizner (R): 30

Undecided: 31

(MoE: ±3.2%)

His name is ex-Governor Jerry Brown; his aura smiles and never frowns. Soon he will be Governor. Again.

Brown is posting 20-point leads in both the Democratic primary and the general. The only possible obstacle is Dianne Feinstein, who certainly doesn’t seem like she’s about to jump into the race, but would win the Democratic primary with 40% (to 27 for Brown and 16 for Newsom) if she got in. The previous Field Poll (from March) polled primaries only; Brown led Newsom 26-16 then (although that included Antonio Villaraigosa, John Garamendi, and some minor players as well). The one bit of good news here for Gavin Newsom is that, unlike the recent Rasmussen and R2K polls, Field finds him comfortably beating his Republican rivals in the general, if he somehow wins the primary, presumably with a lot of help from new BFF Bill Clinton.

On the Republican side, undecideds still rule the day in the primary. (In March, Whitman led Campbell and Poizner, 21-18-7, so people have made little progress toward making up their minds.) One thing I find strange is that the media have designated frontrunner status to Meg Whitman (despite the flames pouring out of her candidacy while it’s still on the launch pad) or else frames it as a Whitman/Poizner race; this poll should make it abundantly clear that moderate ex-Rep. Tom Campbell is in position to potentially win the primary (although he doesn’t have the money of his opponents, which could hurt him down the stretch). It’s also worth noting that Campbell matches up, a few ticks better, against the Democrats than Whitman or Poizner.

RaceTracker Wiki: CA-Gov