Tag: OH-15

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

(Cross-posted from DKos)

As a certified political junkie, I actually have the filing deadlines for each state on my calendar. Yesterday, Ohio’s filing deadline came and went. Unlike Texas, which saw nine of their 32 incumbents wind up unopposed (including, unfortunately, six of their Republican incumbents), it is a full field of candidates in Ohio.

Furthermore, there are some interesting primary elections which will kick off the Buckeye State campaign season early in March.

Follow me past the jump for the list and the analysis.

First of all, the list. I scoured official and media resources Saturday morning, so there may be some mistakes. Clean them up in the comments, if you find one…

OH 01 (DEM): Steve Driehaus

OH 01 (GOP): Rep. Steve Chabot

OH 02 (DEM): Steve Black, Victoria Wulsin, William Smith

OH 02 (GOP): Rep. Jean Schmidt, Tom Brinkman, Phil Heimlich, Nathan Bailey

OH 03 (DEM): David Esrati, Jane Mitakides, Charles W. Sanders

OH 03 (GOP): Rep. Mike Turner

OH 04 (DEM): Mike Carroll

OH 04 (GOP): Rep. Jim Jordan

OH 05 (DEM): George Mays

OH 05 (GOP): Rep. Bob Latta, Scott Radcliffe, Michael Reynolds

OH 06 (DEM): Rep. Charlie Wilson

OH 06 (GOP): A Republican candidate filed, could not find a name.

OH 07 (DEM): Bill Conner, Sharen Neuhardt, Jack Null, Thomas Scrivens, David Woolever, Richard Wyderski

OH 07 (GOP): Steve Austria, Dan Harkins, Ron Hood, John Mitchel

OH 08 (DEM): Mort Meier, Nicholas Vonstein

OH 08 (GOP): Rep. John Boehner

OH 09 (DEM): Rep. Marcy Kaptur

OH 09 (GOP): Bradley Leavitt

OH 10 (DEM): Rep. Dennis Kucinich, Joe Cimperman, Thomas O’Grady, Rosemary Palmer, Barbara Ferris

OH 10 (GOP): Jim Trakas, Jason Werner

OH 11 (DEM): Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones

OH 11 (GOP): Thomas Pekarek, Bob Saffold

OH 12 (DEM): Aaron Dagres, Marc Fagin, Russ Goodwin, David Robinson

OH 12 (GOP): Rep. Pat Tiberi, David Ryon

OH 13 (DEM): Rep. Betty Sutton

OH 13 (GOP): Frank Chestney, Frances Kalapodis, David Potter

OH 14 (DEM): Bill O’Neill, Dale Blanchard, John Greene

OH 14 (GOP): Rep. Steve LaTourette

OH 15 (DEM): Mary Jo Kilroy

OH 15 (GOP): Ralph Applegate, Charles Chope, John Diamond, Steve Stivers, Robert Wagner

OH 16 (DEM): John Boccieri, Mary Cirelli

OH 16 (GOP): Matt Miller, Paul Schiffer, Kirk Schuring

OH 17 (DEM): Rep. Tim Ryan

OH 17 (GOP): Duane Grassell

OH 18 (DEM): Rep. Zack Space, Mark Pitrone

OH 18 (GOP): Beau Bromberg, Fred Dailey, Jeannette Moll, Paul Phillips

Now, here is my analysis of the PRIMARY ELECTIONS:

OH-02: This might be the most intriguing primary of them all on March 4th. The Democratic side of the equation might be more competitive than you think, as Steve Black has already raised well into six figures in his attempt to deny Vic Wulsin a second shot at the brass ring. Wulsin has never stopped running from her solid 2006 run, which saw her come within two points of the incumbent.

The incumbent might have been saved by seeing (yet again!) two legitimate Republicans file against her. Both Brinkman and Heimlich have records as elected officials, and both will bring resources to the table. Watch Schmidt escape again with a 35-30-30-5 win.

OH-07: What was thought to be a coronation for state Senator Steve Austria has grown more complicated as time has gone on. Late in the game, former state Representative Ron Hood decided to make the show. Both Harkins and Mitchel have the threat of being serious candidates. Austria is still the bettors’ favorite, and looks good for the general as well.

OH-10: Time will tell if Dennis Kucinich’s vanity run for President will cost him back home. Like Schmidt, he probably benefits from the fact that there is a multi-candidate field in front of him. Cimperman is a city councilman in Cleveland, O’Grady is the mayor of North Olmstead, Palmer has generated some attention, and Ferris has run before (only getting 24% of the vote in 2006). Republicans probably are running one of their strongest candidates in former state rep. Jim Trakas, but this is a district where Kucinich’s closest race (in 2004) held him to a mere 60%.

OH-16: At the last second, Democratic plans to have an uncomplicated run here were foiled when a longtime city official (Mary Cirelli) got into the race against party-anointed state senator John Boccieri. It is questionable whether the sixty-something Cirelli will present a serious threat to Boccieri, who has the blessing of many county party officials, as well as a formidable war chest. On the GOP side, it is a free-for-all between Matt Miller (who ran tough against the retiring Ralph Regula in 2006), state senator Kirk Schuring, and right-wing talk radio host Paul Schiffer.

THE GENERAL ELECTION IN OHIO:

There are several seats to watch in Ohio. The good news: they are pretty much entirely in Republican hands.

Of the three Democratic freshmen in Ohio, only Zack Space is facing opposition that anyone would take seriously. Even in this race (OH-18), no one sees this as a toss-up. Space wiping the floor with Joy Padgett probably scared off higher-caliber competition. Meanwhile, both Charlie Wilson (OH-06) and Betty Sutton (OH-13) face nominal opposition.

Meanwhile, there are first-tier GOP targets all over the map. Principal among these are the pair of open seats in central Ohio: the Columbus-based 15th district and the Canton-based 16th district. Both are swing districts (the 15th a bit more favorable to Dems). Mary Jo Kilroy, after nearly disposing of Deb Pryce in 2006, did not draw a primary challenger. Now she lies in wait, presumably to face GOP recruit Steve Stivers, a state senator who got in after initially demurring from a challenge. Over in the 16th district, Boccieri is the best candidate the Dems could have hoped for, and he will likely benefit from a brutal GOP primary. Expect Schuring to emerge from it. Also expect at least one of these seats to go Democratic in November.

There are also a number of GOP incumbents being looked at. The Cincy metro area sees the two most prized targets in third-term Rep. Jean Schmidt (OH-02) and class of 1994 Rep. Steve Chabot (OH-01). Democrats think that they might have finally found the right candidate for Chabot in the person of state Rep. Steve Driehaus. Of course, they thought that when Roxanne Qualls ran in 1998, and they also thought that when Cranley ran here in 2006. Jean Schmidt, meanwhile, must first survive the GOP primary. If she does (and she is the betting favorite), she will square off most likely in a 2006 rematch with Vic Wulsin. It was one of the closest races in America in 2006, and would promise to be so again, especially since the DCCC is unlikely to be a late arrival in the race this time around.

Other possible races to watch: Judge Bill O’Neill making a run at another Class of 1994 incumbent, Republican Steve LaTourette (OH-14). Democrat Jane Mitakides, who ran a well-funded race in the Dayton-based 3rd district, will take another swing at Republican Rep. Mike Turner. In the Columbus-based 12th district, Pat Tiberi will never be able to rest TOO easy, but he will be a favorite over the Democrats.

Just when the GOP is starting to catch some small breaks in the Senate, the situation in the House is rapidly deteriorating. As many had predicted, a growing number of Republican representatives do not find the prospect of life in the minority appealing and are calling it quits. Unfortunately for Republicans, a large majority of them represent competitive districts. The latest retirement were particularly shocking because they were completely unexpected — especially Rep. Ferguson’s in NJ-07. Democrats have golden opportunities to pick-up all of these seats, especially if the environment continues to favor them. But this also means Republicans will be forced to play defense and will not be able to contest that many Democratic-held seats, no matter how vulnerable they might be.

The situation is made much worse for Republicans by the awful financial situation they are in. As of the end of October, the NRCC is still a million in debt, while the DCCC has 27 million dollars. That’s nearly a 30 million dollar gap, which will have a significant impact on next year’s results. The RNC will have to concentrate on the presidential elections and will have a limited ability to help the NRCC out. This means that the DCCC has the ability to play offense in many seats, expand the map, and protect its own seats — while the Republicans will probably end up having to concede some of their open seat and choose which select Democratic seats they are going after.

As a result, many of the freshmen Democrats who looked very vulnerable last year are likely to survive, though the GOP will no doubt be able to claim some of its very conservative seats back, starting with FL-16 and TX-22; they also got some good news this month when the Democratic challenger in MT-AL withdrew, as unpopular Rep. Cubin retired in Wyoming, and as they made Indiana’s 7th district much more competitive. But six of the seven race that are rated more vulnerable this month are Republican, underscoring the steady stream of bad news for the GOP.

I have only written full descriptions of seats that have made news over the past month. For detailed descriptions of the other races, check last month’s rankings. Only a few seats saw their rating change in the past month. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to them to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

• Less vulnerable: CT-2, NY-19, WY-AL
  
• More vulnerable: AK-AL, IL-06, IL-11, IN-07, KY-02, NJ-07, OH-05
  

Outlook: Democrats pick-up 7-12 seats.

The October ratings are available here.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (5)

• AZ-1 (Open)
  
• CA-4 (Rep. Doolittle): Republicans might finally be getting what they want here, as some rumors are starting to circulate that ethically (very) challenged Doolittle might be finally ready to announce his retirement. If he does, this race will significantly drop down the rankings; but if Doolittle stays in the race, this is a sure a pick-up for the Democrats’ Brown.
  
• IL-11 (Open, upgraded): The filing deadline has already passed in Illinois (it’s the first in the country), and Republicans did not manage to recruit a top-tier candidate. They are fielding the Mayor of New Lenox and an ex-Bush White House official; both could be good candidates and make the race competitive, but Democrats have to be considered slightly favored since they convinced a reluctant Debbie Halvorson, the State Majority Leader, to run.
  
• NM-1 (Open): 2006 nominee Patricia Madrid announced she would not run again, making Albuquerque councilman Heinrich the likely Democratic nominee. Republicans are confident that their nominee, sheriff White, is strong and will run much stronger than other Republicans would. If that is confirmed by independent indicators and polls, the race will be downgraded, but the fact that the district is naturally competitive (it narrowly went for Kerry in 2004) combined with the sour national environment for Republicans makes Heinrich the early favorite.
  
• OH-15 (Open): The GOP finally got some much needed good news in this race. Democrats had united behind their 2006 nominee Mary Jo Kilroy, but all Republicans who might have made this race competitive declined to run one after another, making this the top pick-up opportunity in the country for Democrats. But the GOP finally convinced a strong candidate who had initially passed on the race to get in: state Senator Steve Strivers. They ensured that the race remains competitive; but given that OH-15 is very tight in the first place, that the environment is toxic for the GOP and that Kilroy came within a few thousand votes of unsitting an entranced incumbent in 2006, Democrats are still favored.
  

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney)

Republican seats, Toss-up (14)

• AK-AL (Rep. Young, upgraded): A new poll shows just how disastrous Young’s approval rating has become as he is involved in a corruption probe that has claimed many other Republican congressmen. Democrats have a few candidates, and an October poll showed former state Senator Ethan Berkowitz leading Young.
  
• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave)
  
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
  
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): A recent primary poll has Dan Seals crushing Footlik in the Democratic primary for the right to take on Republican Kirk, who sits on a  very competitive district. Seals got 47% in 2006 with the national party paying little attention, but he will receive lots of help from the DCCC this time.
  
• MN-03 (Open):
  
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes)
• NJ-03 (open): In the first New Jersey surprise, Rep. Saxton announced he would not run for re-election in early November giving a major opening to Democrats in a district that Bush won by only 3% in 2004. Democrats were already excited about this race before Saxton’s retirement, and they believe that state Senator John Adler is a very strong candidate who will carry the district. Republicans do have a solid bench here though, and are looking to get state Senator Diane Allen in.
  
• NJ-07 (open): Rep. Ferguson’s retirement was perhaps the biggest surprise of this year’s House cycle. He opens up a very competitive district that Bush won with 49% in 2000 and 53% in 2004. Democrats appear united behind state Assemblywoman Linda Stender who came within a point of beating Ferguson in 2006. The GOP is having a harder time at recruitment, as its three top choices (especially Tom Kean Jr.) announced they would not run within a few days of Ferguson’s retirement. Republicans better find a good candidate fast, or they will be looking at a certain Democratic pick-up.
  
• OH-1 (Rep. Chabot)
  
• OH-16 (Open):
  
• NY-25 (Rep. Walsh)
  
• PA-6 (Rep. Gerlach)
• VA-11 (Rep. Davis): Whether or not Tom Davis retires, this race is sure to be very competitive. Davis’s wife Jeannemarie massively lost a re-election race to the state Senate last month in a contest that cost millions of dollars, proving that Davis will have a very tough fight on his hand next year if he runs again in a region that has been rapidly trending their way. If Davis retires (and he was supposed to run for Senate and leave the seat open until about a month ago), this will automatically jump up to the top of the Democratic pick-up list. Does his wife’s loss make him more or less likely to run again?
  
• WA-8 (Rep. Reichert): Democrats are clearly confident they can take Reichert down in a rematch of the 2006 race against Demcorat Burner. They recently filed an FEC complaint over Reichert’s fundraising, hoping to get the incumbent in ethical trouble. They did not manage to tie him quite enough with the GOP brand in 2006.
  

Democratic seats, Toss-up (11)

• CA-11 (Rep. McNerney)
• GA-8 (Rep. Marshall)
• IL-8 (Rep. Bean)
• IN-7 (Rep. Carson, upgraded): This is a very Democratic district, that Kerry carried with 58%. But Rep. Carson has had health problems and has rarely been in the House in the past few years — nor has she campaigned very actively. Her 2006 re-election was surprisingly narrow, and Republicans have recruited state Rep. Jon Elrod, who they believe will be the ideal candidate to take down Carson. This race could be an unlikely pick-up for the GOP if Carson runs for re-election; if she retires, it could be easier for Democrats to hold.
  
• IN-09 (Rep. Hill): Rep. Hill and Republican Sodrel are running against each other for the fourth straight time. Voters know both of them at this point, and there is little they can do this early to change the dynamics.
  
• KS-2 (Rep. Boyda)
  
• NH-1 (Rep. Shea-Porter): Republicans are preparing for a primary between ousted 2006 congressman Bradley and the former HHS commissioner; but if Shea-Porter won last year with no money and no national attention, how vulnerable could she be now as an incumbent.
  
• OH-18 (Rep. Space)
  
• PA-4 (Rep. Altmire)
  
• PA-10 (Rep. Carney)
  
• TX-22 (Rep. Lampson): This race is deemed by many the most vulnerable seat held by a Democrat. But the strongest Republicans passed on the race, giving at least some pause to those who have long predicted Lampson is a one-timer. They might very well be right, but we shall wait until the GOP field yields its nominee to reassess the situation.

The race of the rankings, including all the “lean retention” and “potentially competitive” rated seats, is available here, at Campaign Diaries.

These are just a few of my favorite bits of Republican misfortune this year. I’m sure you can think of more.

• VA-Sen: A seat your party holds in a purple-trending state somewhat unexpectedly opens up. The good news is that you have an ideal successor, ready-to-go. He’s won hard-fought elections, cultivated a “moderate” record, and has tons of cash in the bank. What do you do? Well, obviously, if you are the modern Republican Party, you tell him to fuck off. Congrats and thanks to the VA GOP for running Tom Davis out of town by cancelling their primary and scheduling a wingnut festival instead.
• NY-19: The gall! The unmitigated gall! How could a Democrat ever dare to represent Westchester! Why, such things just aren’t done! Well, of course they are (after all, a Dem represents the 18th), but so said the NY GOP after 2006. So they set their sights on Rep. John Hall and rallied around uber-rich self-funder Andrew Saul. Only problem: After months of gangbusters fundraising, it turns out Saul’s up to his ears in ethics violations – and now out of the race. A Republican engaging in corruption? Why, such things just aren’t done!
• NJ-07: Here’s a job no Republican wants: food-taster for Markos Moulitsas. Here’s another job no Republican wants, either: United States Representative for New Jersey’s Seventh Congressional District. Within just a single day of this seat opening up, Tom Kean, Jr., Jon Bramnick and Bob Franks all took a pass. Three up, three down, end of the inning. Better luck in the next frame, compadres.
• OH-15: First there was Jim Petro. But Petro said no. Then there was Steve Stivers. But Stivers said no. Then there was Jim Hughes, but Jim Hughes said no. Then there was Greg Lashutka but Lashutka said no. Then, there was… three months of silence. And finally, Steve Stivers decided he was fer it after he was agin’ it, undoubtedly after Tom Cole twisted his arm 180 degrees behind his back. Hint to Republicans: Money won’t spring loose if you shove it the full 360. Nor will victory.
• CT-02: The NRCC called him a “heavyweight.” Thing is, Mike Tyson is also a heavyweight. No, Sean Sullivan doesn’t sport any facial tattoos, but he might as well be wearing a scarlet letter, given how unloved he is these days in DC. “Persona non grata,” declared one insider after Sully scraped together a miserable $25K in the second quarter. Personally, I prefer another Latin phrase: bigus dickus. Good luck, skipper.

Crumb-bums will be crumb-bums; they can’t help it – it’s just in their nature.

As reported by Joe Hallett in the Columbus Dispatch and noted on Ohio 15th and Plunderbund this morning, State Sen. Steve Stivers (R-Upper Arlington) of the 16th Ohio Senate District has changed his mind and will jump into the contest to replace retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-Upper Arlington) in the 15th Ohio Congressional District. Stivers is an Iraq War vet and a state senator for five years. In short, he is a relatively high-profile adversary for Franklin County Commissioner and well-funded repeat candidate Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Columbus).

More after the flip.

The fascinating thing about the announcement is that Stivers, a member of the incumbent’s party, is portraying it as a race about change. “I’ve decided to run for Congress because I think we really need change in Washington,” he says, and “the country is ready for change …and I represent that change.” He even goes so far as to portray Kilroy as “almost like” an incumbent in the race: “It will be a very different race than in 2006. The voters know her and they need to get to know me.”

On the face of it, that is a difficult argument. Although the Republicans lost control of the House last year, they still hold the White House and the nation is still reeling from the Bush Administration and its policies. Even more telling, the 15th District has been in Republican hands since 1967, when Chalmer Wylie (R) replaced Robert Seacrest (D). Change, indeed.

Stiver’s Ohio Senate district is almost entirely within the 15th Congressional District. Word is that State Rep. Jim Hughes (R) is the pick to run for Stiver’s Ohio Senate seat.

The 15th Congressional District is in central Ohio in Franklin, Madison, and Union counties. It includes part of Columbus and its northwestern suburbs, including Hilliard, Marysville, as well as rural countryside to the northwest. It is a swing district (Cook PVI R+1) and is thought to be tredning blue. Bush won 50% in 2004. Retiring incumbent Deborah Pryce (R) defeated Mary Jo Kilroy (D) by just over 1,000 votes (50% to 50%) in 2006.

The beginning of the month brought the Senate rankings. Two weeks have passed, so it is time to look at the picture in the House. As bad as this week was for the GOP on the Senate (and make no mistake about it, between Hagel’s retirement and Warner and Shaheen jumping in the race, this was as bad as it can get), House Republicans did their best to beat that. After a month of recruitment failures and retirement announcements, Republicans are not at their best in House races, and while some of them were hoping that they could reconquer the House in November 2008, that looks increasingly unlikely.

Read full ranking at Campaign Diaries.

It is naturally very early to tell where most of these races are headed. House contests develop much later than Senate ones. On the Senate side, most Senators are nearing announcements about whether they will run again, and most challengers have already taken steps towards launching their campaign. But on the House side, the recruitment drive is only starting and many more retirements are still expected.

It is however a good exercise to rank these races, see which ones are already in play, which ones are gearing up to be the most competitive of the next cycle, and where the challenging party really hasn’t gotten its act together. The overall picture favors Democrats: They are defending no competitive open seats, have put together some good challengers, and are benefiting from the national environment. Many Republicans who barely survived in 2006 are now being targeted, and races that were under-funded then will be treated as top-notch opportunities next year.

But Republicans also have a lot of opportunities: Of the 31 freshmen democrats who picked-up GOP seats last fall, many hold very red districts that are likely to vote even more Republican in a presidential year. Many are already being put to the test, and Republicans are claiming some recruitment victories (CA-11 or CT-5). But the GOP will have to work hard to put all the seats it wants in play.

Outlook: 6-10 seat Democratic pick-up

Here is the description ofonly the first ten seats. Go here for the full rankings!

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

• AZ-1 (Open): Ethically challenged Renzi’s retirement gave Republicans a better shot at keeping the seat. But this is exactly the kind of scandal-tainted seat Democrats were so good at winning in 2006, so there is no reason to think they are not favored today.
• CA-4 (Incumbent: Doolittle): This district is very heavily Republican and will favor the GOP in a heartbeat again if only FBI-investigated Doolittle gets out of the race. But he is claiming he will run — and as long as he does Democrat Brown (who almost beat him in 2006) has a great shot.
• OH-15 (Open): Pryce did not want to go through another nasty and close race and called it quits, and major Republicans (like former AG Petro) passed on the race since then. Meanwhile, 2006 Democratic nominee Kilroy has been campaigning for months and is likely to take away the district.
• VA-11 (Likely open): Tom Davis is running for Senate, and his district is in blue-trending Northern Virginia. This is exactly the kind of place in which Virginia Democrats have been making huge progress in recent years. Nothing is set in stone until Davis runs, but a huge headache for the GOP.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney): Foley’s former seat, that Mahoney only won because of the page scandal. That Republicans only lost by one point under these as-bad-as-it-gets local circumstances shows that Mahoney is not that strong here. Republicans are happy with their candidates, and plan to use Mahoney’s recent statements (such as one declaring that Congress “wasn’t the greatest job”) against him.

Republican seats, Toss-up (11)

• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Musgrave, best known for her obsession in the anti-gay marriage amendment, has been constantly under-performing in this district, and she won by a few points in 2006. Democrats did not pay that much attention to the race then, but they will this time. There is a primary between Angie Paccione (the 2006 nominee) and Betsy Markey (a former Salazar aide).
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays): Shays survived two extremely close races in 2004 and 2006. This time, the candidate has changed and Jim Himes has been highly touted as the Democrat who will finally take out the last New England Republican. Shays is also threatening to resign or retire if leaders don’t give him what he wants.
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Netroots favorite Dan Seals got 47% in 2006, and is back for a rematch. IL-10 was on few people’s watchlist in 2006 but this is the kind of district the DCCC will go after this time around.
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes): Hayes won by a few hundred votes in 2006 against a Democrat to whom no one in DC was paying attention, and who received no funding from the DCCC. This time, Kissel has everyone’s attention and will get help from the national party. But Hayes, who was caught off-foot in 2006, will be prepared too.
• NM-1 (Rep. Wilson): One of the closest races in 2006. Wilson thought her streak of victories against highly-touted Democrat would allow her to get a pass in 2008, but that was before the attorney scandal put her at the heart of an ethics controversy.

etc…!

Read the rest of the rankings (there are still plenty of seats described in detail and rated!) at Campaign Diaries.

Two weeks ago, Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce (OH-15) announced her plans not to run for re-election. Considering that Pryce defeated Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy by a razor-thin margin in 2006 in a district with a PVI of R+1.1, this seat was already going to be competitive in 2008. But as an open-seat, it quickly looked like one of the best prospects for a Dem pickup. 

And now things just keep getting better for our side as it appears that the NRCC is having trouble fielding a candidate in the race:

Northeast Ohio native and former Attorney General Jim Petro has ruled out a run for Congress, setting his sights instead on Ohio's next Supreme Court chief justice.  Party leaders, including House GOP leader John Boehner of Ohio, had urged Petro, a moderate Republican who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2006, to run next year for a seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Deborah Pryce of suburban Columbus.

And shortly afterwards: 

Former Mayor Greg Lashutka said today he will not seek the GOP nomination in 2008 for the 15th Congressional District seat being vacated at the end of next year by retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce, an Upper Arlington Republican.  Lashutka ruled out a run about an hour after former Attorney General Jim Petro said he will not seek the congressional seat, leaving local GOP officials scrambling for a candidate against Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy, the favoried Democrat who narrowly lost to Pryce in 2006.

This comes on the heels of two other recruitment failures for the NRCC as State Sen. Steve Stivers and State Rep. Jim Hughes both turned down a race for the seat.

(h/t Buckeye State Blog)

More waffling from former Ohio Republican AG Jim Petro on his prospective bid to succeed Deborah Pryce in the House:

Former Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro is leaning against a run for the 15th Congressional District seat to be vacated at the end of 2008 by the retirement of incumbent Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce, according to Republican sources.

Petro has been considered the leading GOP candidate for the congressional seat, but sources close to him said it appears Petro will forgo the race and keep open the option of running for Ohio chief justice in 2010.

Petro declined to comment on whether he would pull his name from consideration for Congress. “I have not reached a decision, but will soon,” he told The Dispatch this afternoon.

As Bones would say: dammit, Jim!

According to the Columbus Dispatch, another potential candidate, Republican state Rep. Jim Hughes has put his name out of contention.  But there are other names in the field:

The potential field of GOP candidates to replace Pryce quickly is narrowing. Former Franklin County Commissioner Dewey Stokes has expressed interest in running. Former Columbus Mayor Greg Lashutka also is gaining traction in some Republican circles. Lashutka, an executive with Nationwide Insurance, has been unavailable for comment on whether he is entertaining a bid for Congress.

Buckeye State Blog has more on Lashutka:

Lashutka’s the former two term mayor of Columbus who didn’t run for re-election in ’99 due to health concerns. He’s also an OSU namesake, having played tight-end for the fabled Woody Hayes in the 60’s. Since he left office, he’s stayed involved in the community, and served a prominent role with nationwide insurance. Republicans know they can still count on Lashutka at fundraising events these days, and he even makes it out to stuff for the Democrats occasionally too. The man has been out of politics through the Bush years, so it’s more difficult to tarnish him with the image of the modern day GOPer.

Lashutka could be a strong nominee, and I don’t expect Republicans to cede this race any time soon.  But with the district’s Democratic trend (Kerry improved upon Gore’s performance by 6% here), the organizational advantages and name recognition built up by Kilroy, and a Presidential race that could tilt Ohio towards the D column, Lashutka or any other Republican candidate would have to show some hustle.

According to the Buckeye State Blog (which has really been on fire with its House coverage this week), former Republican Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro has agreed to run to succeed retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce in the 15th Congressional District.  Petro, as you may recall, was an unsuccessful candidate for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in 2006, where he lost to then-Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell by a 56-44% margin.

Quick on their feet, the Ohio Democratic Party released the following press release slamming a Petro candidacy:

News accounts report that Congresswoman Deborah Pryce will announce that she will not run for Congress in Ohio’s 15th Congressional District. So, which Jim Petro will run for Congress?

Is it the Jim Petro who was under FBI Investigation?

Is it the Jim Petro who ignored the Securities and Exchange Commission’s warnings that Ohio Worker’s Compensation investors were being ripped off and let the Noe CoinGate scandal occur right under his nose?

Is it the Jim Petro that the Ohio Civil Rights Commission found violated his staff’s civil rights by not promoting and hiring them based on race?

Is it the Jim Petro who was the Cuyahoga County Commissioner? Note: It is more than a 2 hour drive from Cuyahoga County to central Ohio where the 15th is located.

Is it the Jim Petro who lurched to the right to combat Ken Blackwell in the Republican Primary for Governor?

Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy will have plenty of juicy targets to choose from in a campaign against Petro.  However, the nickel’s worth of free advice that the Swing State Project gave to Kilroy last month still rings true: a strong message of change in Iraq should not be left off the table.

Shocking news from the Columbus Dispatch:

Rep. Deborah Pryce of Upper Arlington has told some of her fellow Republicans she is strongly considering not seeking re-election next year, The Dispatch has learned.

Pryce, 56, who has been a fixture in the U.S. House since her election in 1992, could make an announcement soon about her plans. Republican sources say if she does not run, former Ohio Attorney General James Petro might seek the seat.

Other GOP sources also mention state Sen. Steve Stivers, R-Upper Arlington, an Iraq veteran, as a strong possibility if Pryce drops out.

A senior Republican who spoke only on condition of not being identified said Pryce has concluded it is far too difficult to raise her adopted daughter Mia in Columbus while simultaneously maintaining a five-day schedule in Washington.

“I don’t think anybody can talk her out of it,” the top Republican said.

Pryce could not immediately be reached for comment.

But according to the Buckeye State Blog, Franklin County Republicans are having a difficult time finding a top-tier replacement for Pryce:

The story gets better too. Doug Priese, Chairman of the Franklin County Republican Party, got word of the retirement yesterday from the Congresswoman’s office. In a span of 24 hours the GOP has already had it’s top two potential challengers declare they wouldn’t touch OH-15 with a stick.

The GOP’s dream challenger to replace Pryce is State Senator Jim Stivers. Unfortunately for the Republicans, Stivers turned the Franklin County Republican Party down on the spot yesterday when approached with an offer to run. Since Stivers is up for re-election in the Senate, and approaching an opportunity to serve as Senate President, he views a run for Congress to risky in a district clearly trending Democrat.

Additionally, I’ve heard the GOP approached former Gubernatorial candidate and Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro to jump into the race. However, like Stivers, Petro officially turned the party down for fear of the district and fundraising concerns in a hostile climate.

If true, this is absolutely huge news.  With 2006 candidate and Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy in the race, Democrats would be well-poised to snag this Democratic-trending seat.  At a PVI of R+1.1, this district split its vote 50-50 for Bush and Kerry in 2004, after Bush carried this district by a comfortable eight points in 2000.

If Pryce bails, perhaps the dam will break and similar incumbents facing pressure to keep their seats by the NRCC will take the retirement plunge.

UPDATE: The Hill cites GOP sources claiming that Pryce’s retirement is a done deal:

Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-Ohio) will announce Thursday that she will not run for reelection in 2008, according to sources close to the congresswoman’s office.

Pryce’s office announced it will hold a press conference in her Columbus office on Thursday at 11 a.m. concerning her plans for 2008.

The timing of Pryce’s impending retirement comes largely as a surprise. A former leader of the GOP’s ousted majority, she is in her eighth term but is only 56 years old – much younger than many of the prospective Republican retirees.

Oh, I can’t wait for more surprises.  Some call this the dog days of summer.  I call it Christmas time for House retirement watchers.

UPDATE 2: The Dispatch confirms.  Debby Pryce is out.

According to the Buckeye State Blog, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy is set to have the primary field all to herself in her rematch bid against faux-moderate Republican Deborah Pryce:

I’m getting highly reliable reports that this morning Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks announced her intention not to make a formal bid for Congress in the OH-15 race. Apparently Commissioner Brooks called Commissioner Kilroy and informed her of the news first.

Studious readers of the Swing State Project might know that I’m generally not optimistic about House rematches, with certain exceptions: scandal, or when the challenger turns a low-profile shell campaign into a serious threat (e.g. Paul Hodes).  We all saw how four years of the same campaign worked for Lois Murphy (PA-06) and Diane Farrell (CT-04) last year.  Mary Jo Kilroy is no exception, but she could have a possible opening if she can reorient her campaign message.  Searching high and low on Youtube, I couldn’t find a single TV spot from Kilroy’s 2006 campaign hitting Pryce on Iraq directly: not from her, not from the DCCC, not from any of the third-party groups who dropped some serious coin into Ohio’s 15th last year.  All I can find is the standard stuff: bio fluff, fiscal responsibility, veteran’s benefits, congressional pay raises, perscription drug prices, etc.  The only Iraq-related ad produced by Kilroy that I could find was this one featuring a disabled Iraq vet, but its message has much more to do with trying to prove toughness on security matters (“immediate wiretapping!”) rather than opposing the war or even calling for change in Iraq.  Now, it’s entirely possible that Kilroy aired a series of hard-hitting Iraq ads that didn’t find their way to Youtube, but given the sheer volume of OH-15 ads available on the site, it doesn’t seem likely.

If Kilroy truly failed to exploit the Iraq issue, and if she’s prepared to reverse course, then she may have a legitimate shot at giving Pryce another serious run.  But if we’re going to see another two years of giving Pryce a pass on Iraq, color me unimpressed.