OH-15: Kilroy Leads Stivers by 8

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for the DCCC (9/30-10/1, likely voters):

Mary Jo Kilroy (D): 44

Steve Stivers (R): 36

Don Eckhart (I): 7

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Impressive numbers from a reputable pollster. You’ll recall that Stivers, a state senator and veteran, was one of the NRCC’s most highly-prized recruits. However, this is the second poll in a row to give Kilroy the lead (SurveyUSA had Kilroy up by 47-42 last month). Perhaps his career as a banking lobbyist isn’t the right profile in these troubled times.

If Stivers and the NRCC have better numbers than these, I invite them to share their polls. I don’t think we’ve seen a Republican internal poll of this race in some time.

DCCC Throws Down $1.6 Million in 16 Districts

The DCCC has filed nearly $1.6 million in media buys in support of House Democratic candidates tonight. Here’s the damage:













































































































District Incumbent Group Media Buy
IL-10 Kirk DCCC $41,066
LA-06 Cazayoux DCCC $93,462
NC-08 Hayes DCCC $112,423
NH-01 Shea-Porter DCCC $31,815
NJ-03 Open DCCC $56,680
NJ-07 Open DCCC $116,541
NM-01 Open DCCC $124,981
NM-02 Open DCCC $70,729
NV-03 Porter DCCC $142,214
NY-26 Open DCCC $59,110
OH-01 Chabot DCCC $137,099
OH-15 Open DCCC $162,989
OH-16 Open DCCC $156,724
PA-03 English DCCC $91,665
PA-10 Carney DCCC $130,704
WI-08 Kagen DCCC $55,336
Total: $1,583,541

This is on top of $1.4 million in media buys filed in 15 other districts yesterday. Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has spent money on TV ads in LA-06, NJ-03, NM-02, NV-03, and WI-08.

For more details on these and other expenditures, please consult SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker.

OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, OH-16: New SUSA Polls

Roll Call has commissioned SurveyUSA to conduct polls in Ohio’s top four congressional races (I wish they would’ve polled OH-07 also, but I’ll take what I can get), and they’ve just released the results. Let’s take a look (9/19-21, likely voters):

OH-01:

Steve Driehaus (D): 44

Steve Chabot (R-inc): 46

Other: 6

(MoE: ±3.9%)

OH-02:

Victoria Wulsin (D): 40

Jean Schmidt (R-inc) 48

Other: 10

(MoE: ±3.9%)

OH-15 (8/2-4 in parens):

Mary Jo Kilroy (D): 47 (47)

Steve Stivers (R): 42 (44)

Don Eckhart (I): 5 (7)

Mark Noble (L): 3

(MoE: ±4%)

OH-16:

John Boccieri (D): 49

Kirk Schuring (R): 41

(MoE: ±4%)

Decent looking numbers for Mary Jo Kilroy and especially John Boccieri. It looks like the DCCC’s unanswered $850,000 spent in these two districts is making an impact.

Also looking good is Steve Driehaus, who could be poised to capitalize on Barack Obama’s organization in this district. The Cincinnati-based 1st CD is 28% African-American, and Driehaus’ hopes will rest in part on a strong turnout by these voters: if African-Americans make up only 26% of the vote on election day, Chabot’s lead grows to 47-44, but if the black turnout pushes to 30%, the race is tied at 45-45.

Roll Call also polled the Presidential race in three of the four districts (why they left off the extremely swingin’ OH-15, I have no idea):

  • OH-01: Obama 52%, McCain 43% (Kerry 49%, Bush 51%)

  • OH-02: Obama 39%, McCain 58% (Kerry 36%, Bush 64%)

  • OH-16: Obama 46%, McCain 48% (Kerry 46%, Bush 54%)

Interesting that we’re seeing a sizable Obama improvement in these three CD-based polls, but most of the recent statewide polling shows McCain with a small edge. Vic Wulsin’s gonna have a tough time leaping over that red wall, but we can take heart in that Mean Jean is still clearly damaged goods, as she lags behind McCain by a full 10%. A conservative-leaning independent, businessman David Kirkorian, is also in the race and was recently endorsed by the Cincinnati Fraternal Order of Police. He could be a factor in November.

DCCC Drops $1.75 Million on 15 Districts

The DCCC is opening up their floodgates to some serious advertising expenditures in support of Democratic House candidates. Tonight, the committee filed $1.75 million in advertising expenditures in 15 districts:

















































































District Incumbent Media Buy
AL-02 Open $32,645
AL-05 Open $44,925
AZ-01 Open $82,615
AZ-05 Mitchell $101,893
CT-04 Shays $70,800
IL-10 Kirk $41,066
IL-11 Open $40,953
NC-08 Hayes $114,848
NH-01 Shea-Porter $493,422
NJ-07 Open $116,541
NM-01 Open $144,011
OH-01 Chabot $118,428
OH-15 Open $111,899
OH-16 Open $152,748
PA-03 English $88,552

These are some of the first significant media buys that the DCCC has made this fall, including a whopping $500K dumped against Jeb Bradley in NH-01.

The NRCC is continuing to maintain radio silence, because they can’t afford to match pace. I wonder if they’ll do some serious deficit financing in order to stay afloat this year.

More details on these and other expenditures are available in SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker. The DCCC has made some of these ads available to view online on their multimedia page.

DCCC Spends $175K in Ten Districts

Earlier this week, the DCCC announced that it was hitting back against a recent Freedom’s Crotch radio ad buy against Democrats in ten districts with ads of their own. The DCCC has just filed their independent expenditure reports for the buys, which we’ve rounded up below:

  • ID-01: $10,000 in support of Walt Minnick
  • LA-06: $13,000 in support of Don Cazayoux
  • MI-07: $38,000 in support of Mark Schauer
  • MO-06: $24,500 in support of Kay Barnes
  • NH-01: $17,000 in support of Carol Shea-Porter
  • NM-01: $10,000 in support of Martin Heinrich
  • NY-29: $6,500 in support of Eric Massa
  • OH-15: $33,000 in support of Mary Jo Kilroy
  • OH-16: $17,000 in support of John Boccieri
  • PA-10: $7,000 in support of Chris Carney

Expect to see a lot more of this in the weeks and months to come.

OH-15: Kilroy Leads Stivers By 3 in New Poll

SurveyUSA (8/2-4, likely voters):

Mary Jo Kilroy (D): 47

Steve Stivers (R): 44

Don Eckhart (I): 7

(MoE: ±4.2%)

A Benenson Strategy Group poll from May showed Kilroy leading Stivers by 47-37, so we at least know that Kilroy is awfully close to the 50% mark.

Judging by the crosstabs, independent Don Eckhart picks up support fairly equally across the board, but I would guess that many voters are merely parking their votes with an unknown option for now, and are instead truly undecided about their options. Eckhart’s previous claim to fame was an independent bid against Stivers for the state Senate four years ago, where he claimed 9% of the vote. Eckhart was endorsed by the Ohio Right to Life both then and now, so perhaps he might peel off a few wingnuts from the GOP’s right flank. Then again, 7% of pro-choice voters chose Eckhart in this poll…

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

OH-15: Kilroy Leads By 10 in New Internal Poll

Benenson Strategy Group for Mary Jo Kilroy (5/20-22, likely voters):

Mary Jo Kilroy (D): 47

Steve Stivers (R): 37

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Stivers, a state senator and an Iraq vet, has been one of the brighter recruiting spots for the NRCC.  Kilroy’s numbers are boosted by fairly high name recognition (78%) from her 2006 run.

Despite her 2006 race being a bruising affair, the Politico notes that her favorability rating has begun to recover into net positive territory:

She had a net favorability rating of 10 percent — 44 percent of respondents held a favorably opinion of her, while 34 percent viewed her unfavorably.

Kilroy’s favorability rating has rebounded from her political standing in October 2006, when a plurality of voters held an unfavorable opinion of her.

This is a 50-50 district that’s trending bluer every day. Kilroy can’t rest easy, but this race is looking good in terms of money (she has a significant fundraising lead) and now poll numbers.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

Roundup of Ohio Congressional Races

Following the break is a complete roundup and ranking of Ohio races for the U.S. House of Representatives. I have separated them into Republican-held and Democratic-held seats and divided each into tiers. Within each tier they are ranked in order of likelihood of changing parties.

Democrats were very successful in 2006 in winning a U.S. Senate seat, four out of five statewide offices, and a net gain of seven seats in the Ohio House of Representatives, but  the U.S. House races were a relative disappointment. The party gained only one seat and watched two promising races end in narrow losses after recounts. In this cycle Ohio has three open GOP seats and perhaps four or five races altogether that already look very promising, with another two or three that could be added to that list. The DCCC has already added three races to their “Red to Blue” program and is likely to take an interest in at least two more. In other words, Ohio is once again a critical congressional battleground.

Republican-Held Seats

Tier One: Toss-Up

15th District Central Ohio (includes part of Columbus and west and northwest suburbs, Hilliard, Marysville). Cook PVI R+1.1. Bush won 50% in 2004. In 2006 retiring incumbent Deborah Pryce (R) defeated Mary Jo Kilroy (D) by just over 1,000 votes. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 62.1% Democratic. DCCC Red-to-Blue program.

County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Columbus) is running almost like an incumbent after her photo finish in 2006 and the retirement of her opponent. She has raised an impressive amount of money and has strong support from labor, womens’ groups (including Emily’s List) and among students, who are very numerous in this district. She is an energetic campaigner although not the most polished of public speakers. Opponent State Sen. Steve Stivers (R-Upper Arlington), an Iraq veteran and former bank lobbyist, is a strong adversary with big support from the business community. Independent candidate Don Elijah Eckhart (I-Galloway) figures to take a few votes away from Stivers.

16th District NE Ohio (includes Canton, Massillon, Alliance, Wadsworth, Medina, Wooster, Ashland). Cook PVI R+3.6. Bush won 54% in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Ralph Regula (R), who is retiring, fared poorly in the GOP primary (58% to 43% over conservative Matt Miller (R-Ashland)) and defeated political novice Rev. Tom Shaw (D-Wooster) by the surprisingly narrow margin of 59% to 41% in the general election. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 60.8% Democratic. DCCC Red-to-Blue program.

Iraq veteran and former collegiate baseball star State Sen. John Boccieri (D-New Middletown) is a terrific candidate and is adored in his state legislative district. This congressional district unfortunately includes only a tiny slice of his home turf, but Boccieri is working very hard to build name recognition here and he has the energy and political talent to make it work. Opponent State Sen. Kirk Schuring (R-Canton), a moderate, is strong in vote-rich Stark County but barely escaped a three-way primary against two more conservative opponents. The keys to this election are whether the Republican base turns out for Schuring and whether Boccieri can hold down Schuring’s advantage in blue-trending Stark County while gaining big vote totals elsewhere.

Tier Two: Leans Republican

1st District SW Ohio (includes part of Cincinnati and western suburbs). Cook PVI R+1. Bush won 50% of the vote in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Steve Chabot (R) defeated second-time challenger Councilman John Cranley (D) by 53% to 47%. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 55.4% Democratic. DCCC Red-to-Blue program.

Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Westwood) defied pundits and polls by holding off a hard-charging challenger last cycle. State Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Price Hill) is thought to be a stronger opponent because his base is in the suburbs rather than the city, and like Cranley before him he has moderate-to-conservative positions on social issues that should have cross-over appeal in this swing district. Chabot was the target of independent attack ads over his votes against expanding SCHIP during the past year. Independent Rich Stevenson (I) is also in the race.

2nd District SW Ohio (includes part of Cincinnati and eastern suburbs, Lebanon, Portsmouth). Cook PVI R+13. Bush won 64% in 2004. Incumbent Jean Schmidt (R) defeated Dr. Victoria Wulsin (D) by less than 3,000 votes (51% to 49%) in 2006. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 57.2% Democratic.

Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-Loveland) has embarrassed herself on the floor of the House with her assault on Rep. Jack Murtha (D-PA) and by plagiarism in a constituent newsletter and exaggerating her credentials, but she is probably in a stronger position now than 2006 because she has completed a full term in office. Dr. Victoria Wells Wulsin (D-Indian Hill) emerged victorious from a bruising primary in which she endured withering (and unsubstantiated) attacks on her medical ethics. Wulsin takes heart from having outgained Schmidt in their respective primaries (54,965 to 40,891) and from having gained more Democratic votes and coming closer to winning in 2006 than any previous Democratic candidate since 1980. She is an experienced campaigner after two previous outings. Independent David Krikorian (I) is reportedly gathering signatures to join the race.

Tier Three: Likely Republican

14th District NE Ohio (includes northeast suburbs of Akron, Willoughby, Mentor, Ashtabula). Cook PVI R+2. Bush won 52% in 2004. Incumbent Steve LaTourette (R) defeated law professor Lew Katz (D) by 58% to 39% in 2006. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 64.9% Democratic.

Rep. Steven LaTourette (R-Chagrin Falls) has his toughest opponent since he defeated incumbent Eric Fingerhut (D) 14 years ago. Vietnam veteran and former appellate judge William O’Neill (D-South Russell) has good name recognition from his appellate judicial races and 2006 Ohio Supreme Court bid, has raised serious money (although he is still far behind LaTourette), and has a direct, plain-spoken personality (softened by his remarkable second career as a pediatric ER nurse) that should serve him well in this suburban-to-rural swing district. LaTourette’s biggest assets have been his ability to bring home federal dollars, which is blunted by being in the minority, and his reputation as a moderate, which is questionable. LaTourette is somewhat tainted by links to Jack Abramoff and Bob Ney, breaking a promise to vote against CAFTA, and his divorce and affair with a staffer whom he latter married. Unfortunately O’Neill underwent heart bypass surgery recently that will slow him down for another month or so, but he is a determined and formidable candidate who could elevate this to a top tier race.

Tier Four: High Probability Republican

7th District. South Central Ohio (includes southwest suburbs of Columbus, Lancaster, Xenia, Circleville, Springfield). Cook PVI R+6.0. Bush won 57% in 2004. Retiring incumbent Dave Hobson defeated repeat challenger Bill Conner (D) by 61% to 39% in 2006. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 52.9% Democratic.

This race has upside potential because it is an open seat. Corporate attorney Sharen Neuhardt (D-Yellow Springs) emerged from a six-way primary through hard work and a skillful direct mailing campaign. She is a first-time candidate but she has displayed excellent potential for fund-raising, has brought aboard first-rate campaign staff, and is dedicated to taking the necessary steps to run a seriously competitive campaign. I am hoping that she will work on displaying more passion in her public speaking, which on the occasion I heard her was somewhat low-key. State Sen. Steve Austria (R-Beavercreek) is photogenic and has the support of the incumbent but hasn’t particularly distinguished himself as a state legislator.

3rd District. SW Ohio (includes Dayton and southern suburbs, Kettering, Miamisburg). Cook PVI R+3. Bush won 54% in 2004. Incumbent Michael Turner (R) defeated former federal prosecutor Richard Chema (D) by 59% to 41% in 2006. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 60.2% Democratic.

This should be a swing district based on the strong performance here by Gov. Ted Strickland in 2006. It was held by Democrat Tony Hall from 1981 to 2003. Unfortunately, incumbent Rep. Michael Turner (R-Centerville) benefits from having been Mayor of Dayton, where most of the Democratic votes are located. Nevertheless, business woman and long-time political activist Jane Mitakides (D) gave Turner a fairly stiff challenge in 2004 (gaining 37.7% of the vote) and figures to improve in her second campaign and with an electorate yearning for change. Questions have been raised about Turner’s ethics, including a no-bid contract that benefited his spouse, and this could give Mitakides something of an opening if she is willing to exploit it.

12th District Central Ohio (includes part of Columbus and northeast suburbs, Dublin, Delaware). Cook PVI R+0.7. Bush won 51% in 2004. Incumbent Pat Tiberi (R) defeated former Congressman Bob Shamansky (D) by 58% to 42% in 2006. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 56.6% Democratic.

Businessman and political novice David W. Robinson (D) won a tough primary and is an intriguing candidate with possible crossover appeal. He has interesting credentials like a Ph.D. in theology and philosophy, a cross-country bicycle fund-raising trek for Alzheimers research, and working as a Presenter for Al Gore’s Climate Project initiative. If he had the benefit of political experience I’d move this race up to the next tier. [After some reflection I decdied that this race belongs in Tier Four because of the relatively even PVI and the challenger’s strong showing in a tough primary.] Rep. Patrick Tiberi (R-Westerville) is not a distinguished member of the House but held onto his seat in 2006 with nasty attack ads against his challenger.

Tier Five: Safe Republican

4th District West Central Ohio (includes Mansfield, Findlay, Marion, Lima, Bellefontaine, Sidney). Cook PVI R+14. Bush won 64% in 2004. Freshman Jim Jordan (R) defeated attorney Richard Siferd (D) by 60% to 40% in 2006.

Steelworker and labor union activist Mike Carroll (D-Mansfield) deserves a lot of credit for taking on freshman Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Urbana), and this district has the second highest percentage of blue collar workers in Ohio, but it is the reddest district in the state and hasn’t elected a Democrat since 1936.

8th District. West Ohio includes northern Dayton suburbs, Troy, Hamilton, Fairfield). Cook PVI R+12. Bush won 64% in 2004. Incumbent (and House Speaker) John Boehner defeated political novice Morton Meier (D) by 64% to 36% in 2006.

House Speaker John Boehner (R-West Chester)  has enormous campaign resources. Political activist and USAF veteran Nick Von Stein (D-Mason) is a personable and promising young candidate but this hill looks too steep to climb.

5th District. North Central Ohio (includes Norwalk, Bucyrus, Tiffin, Defiance, Bowling Green, Fremont). Cook PVI R+10.1. Bush won 61% in 2004. Rep. Paul Gillmor (R), who defeated repeat challenger Robin Weirauch by 57% to 43% in 2006, died in September 2007 and State Rep. Bob Latta (R) defeated Weirauch by the same margin in a special election in December.

Rep. Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green) is safe against tanning salon and karaoke entrepreneur George F. Mays (D-Norwalk), formerly a member of the fringe Reform Party.

Democratic-Held Seats

There are no open Democratic seats and at this point there aren’t any Democratic incumbents seriously at risk.

Tier One: Leans Democratic

18th District East Central Ohio (includes Chillicothe, Zanesville, Mt. Vernon, Newark and New Philadelphia). Cook PVI R+6.1. Bush won 57% in 2004. In 2006,  disgraced incumbent Bob Ney (R-Heath) resigned late in the campaign and Dover Law Director Zack Space (D) defeated replacement candidate State Sen. Joy Padgett (R-Coshocton) by 62% to 38%. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 72.5% Democratic.

Just about a year ago this was considered the NRCC’s number one target nationwide. Rep. Zack Space (D-Dover) has greatly increased his chances of holding this seat by raising over a million dollars and engaging in a remarkable series of high-visibility events throughout this far-flung district. He gets great local press and does strong case work through three district offices. He has staked out relatively conservative (and infuriating)  positions on guns and immigration that help him with conservative voters and buttress his claim to be a political independent. His opponent, former Ohio Director of Agriculture Fred Dailey (R-Mt Vernon), is not a top-notch challenger. He got 39% of the vote in a four-way GOP primary, is not considered an exciting personality or hard-working campaigner, and has lingering problems with some farmers for giving environment-damaging factory farms a free pass while running the Ohio Department of Agriculture. The NRCC and 527’s will probably pour resources into this race to try to take Space out, but he nevertheless seems to be in fairly good shape.

Tier Two: High Probability Democratic

6th District. SE Ohio (includes Athens, Marietta, Steubenville, East Liverpool). Cook PVI D+0.4. Bush won 50% in 2004. In 2006 State Sen. Charlie Wilson (D) won the Democratic primary as a write-in candidate (he had filed defective nominating petitions) and cruised to an easy general election win over former Ohio House Speaker Charles Blasdel (R) by 62% to 38% to replace Gov. Ted Strickland in this Appalachian district. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 74.6% Democratic.

Popular Rep. Charlie Wilson (D-St. Clairsville) should prevail easily over Deputy County Recorder Richard Stobbs (R-Dillonvale) in a district that has trended strongly blue due to the popularity of Gov Strickland.

10th District. NE Ohio (includes part of Cleveland and southern and western suburbs). Cook PVI D+6. Kerry won 58% in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Dennis Kucinich (D) defeated former U.S. government official Mike Dovilla (R) by 66% to 34%.

Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Cleveland) would have had a serious primary challenge from rising political force Joe Cimperman (D) if there hadn’t been three other Democrats in the race, but he should be fine against former state representative Jim Trakas (R-Independence) and independent candidate Paul Visokaj (I). [After some reflection I decided that this race belongs in Tier Two because the challenger has campaign experience, the primary revealed significant (although not over powering) dissatisfaction with the incumbent, and the PVI is not as strong as in most of the safer districts.]

Tier Three: Safe Democratic

13th District. NE Ohio (includes part of Akron and eastern suburbs, Cuyahoga Falls, Lorain, Elyria, Brnswick, Strongsville). Cook PVI D+6. Kerry won 56% in 2004. In 2006 former state representative and labor attorney Betty Sutton (D) won a close Democratic primary and handily defeated Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin (R) by 61% to 39% in the general election to replace Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Avon).

The GOP took their best shot when this was an open seat last cycle and lost by a country mile. Rep. Betty Sutton (D-Copley Township) isn’t at risk to political newcomer David S. Potter (R).

9th District North Central Ohio (includes Toledo, Sylvania, Sandusky). Cook PVI D+9. Kerry won 58% in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Marcy Kaptur (D) defeated electrician Bradley Leavitt (R) by 74% to 26%.

No chance for Bradley Leavitt (R-Toledo) in his rematch against the Dean of the Ohio Congressional Delegation and labor favorite Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) in this heavily blue-collar district.

17th District NE Ohio (includes Youngstown, Niles, Warren, Kent). Cook PVI D+14. Kerry won 63% in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Tim Ryan (D) defeated Don Manning (R) by 80% to 20%.

No worries for Pelosi protege and potential 2010 U.S. Senate candidate Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Niles) over teacher Duane V. Grassell (R-Mogadore).

11th District NE Ohio (includes part of Cleveland and eastern suburbs). Cook PVI D+33. Kerry won 81.39% in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Stephanie Tubbs Jones demolished car salesman Lindsey String by 83% to 17%.

No sweat for Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-Cleveland) over political unknown Thomas Pekarek (R) in Ohio’s bluest congressional district.

Cross-posted at Ohio Daily Blog

It’s all about Ohio… AGAIN.

The Buckeye State is going to provide the purest test of the “coattails” of the eventual Democratic  candidate for President. We elected our new Governor in 2006 and don’t have a U.S. Senate race until 2010. So this time, the ballot goes from President to U.S. House seats.

And, again, it’s all about Ohio.

Repeat after me kids: “No Republican can get to the White House unless they win Ohio.” I think that putting the Sick Days Initiative on the ballot is a master stroke. The polling numbers for this proposal are absolutely Off. The. Hook. Just as the disgusting Hate Amendment (anti-gay marriage) brought in enough evangelicals to reelect the Shrub in 2004, the Minimum Wage initiative helped a blue tide to sweep Ohio in 2006.

Our current U.S. House delegation is 11 GOP to 7 Democrats (gotta loves them Gerrymandering!) But we have the very real chance to flip three or maybe even FOUR seats. I don’t know if any other state right now with the meaningful chance to make such a HUGE reversal in their Congresscritters.

I thoroughly expect victories from:

OH-01 (Steve Dreihaus)

OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy

OH-16 State Senator and USAF Major John Boccieri

and MAYBE

OH-14 Judge (and pediatrics emergency room nurse) Bill O’Neill

Other seats will be entertaining as well. For example, who doesn’t look forward to what fresh hell Mean Jean Schmidt (OH-02) can bring down on herself and her GOP collaborators?

Here’s the big question:

What other state has a realistic chance to flip control of their state’s U.S. House delegation and to do so by such a large percentage of the seats in the state?

My sense is that we have seen little of the so called “Bradley effect” or “Wilder Effect” in the primaries, but I suspect that it will be much, much worse in the run up to the general election as the right wing smear machine pounds away at their target demographics, including lower income, lower education, white, male “NASCAR dads” (and moms.)

As I keep repeating, Democratic candidates MUST be really disciplined and stick to the “kitchen table” issues come heck or high water. Pocketbook truth trumps delusional scare tactics. They may have fear and bigotry on their side but we have reality.

Ohio Democratic Congressional Fund Raising reports

crossposted from Ohio Daily Blog

Candidate District 4Q Donations Cash on Hand Debts or note
Steve Driehaus OH-01 $190,054.78 $418,662.01  
Steve Black OH-02 $64,322.00 $223,535.61 $58,320.00
Victoria Wulsin OH-02 $113,773.32 $344,315.29  
Charles Sanders OH-03 $1,090.00 $21.14  
Charlie Wilson* OH-06 $64,905.33 $294,645.87 $191,650.00
Dave Woolever OH-07 $1,791.48 $305.84 $12,900.00
Bill Conner OH-07 $3,352.03 $5,780.17 $10,500.00
Marcy Kaptur* OH-09 $29,250.00 $847,210.88 All from PACs
Barbara Ferris OH-10 $12,234.00 $6,547.52  
Joe Cimperman OH-10 $227,599.78 $204,771.90  
Tom O’Grady OH-10 $28,300.00 $25,415.33  
Rosemary Palmer OH-10 $19,203.00 $51,737.13  
Dennis Kucinich* OH-10 $13,351.09 $13,383.26  
Stephanie Tubbs Jones* OH-11 $132,646.58 $114,704.16     $82,958.00 via PACs
Betty Sutton* OH-13 $74,139.68 $72,403.49  
Bill O’Neill OH-14 $71,226.46     $102,930.45      
Mary Jo Kilroy OH-15 $356,898.45 $638,086.88 $35,000
John Boccieri OH-16 $110,789.38 $308,719.15  
Tim Ryan* OH-17 $165,695.01 $357,103.59      
Zack Space* OH-18 $282,181.83 $755,810.31 $11,106.88

NOTES: Incumbents indicated with asterisk  (*)

Anyone not listed did not file a report. (Candidates who raised less than $5,000 are not required to file.)