Tag: John Boozman

Big news out of Arkansas:

Lt. Gov. Bill Halter says he is seeking the Democratic nomination to challenge Sen. Blanche Lincoln this fall.

    Halter’s spokesman provided a statement Monday in which the one-term lieutenant governor said he would file papers for the U.S. Senate this week. Halter is the only Democrat to formally announce a challenge to Lincoln as she seeks a third term.

Blanche Lincoln has been looking increasingly DOA in the polls, especially since the entry of GOP Rep. John Boozman — and her veering to the right in order to try to appeal to Republicans who already were resolved not to vote for her has only earned her the wrath of labor, environmentalists, the African-American community, and the netroots. The few polls that have included Halter find him not faring any better than Lincoln in the general — which suggests that the Dems’ problems in Arkansas this cycle go deeper than Lincoln herself — but I think we’ll be better positioned to try to salvage the Arkansas seat with a) a fresh face and b) a candidate who at least has the Democratic base on his side.

Halter is at a financial disadvantage compared with Lincoln’s $5 million on hand, but MoveOn is kicking into gear and organized labor is quietly moving to support Halter as well. He has a lot to do in a short time, though: the primary is on May 18. (Discussion underway in TheUnknown285‘s diary.)

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen

• AZ-Sen: Ex-Rep. and FreedomWorks honcho Dick Armey decided not to endorse in the Arizona Senate GOP primary, which may be good news! for John McCain, seeing as how Armey (currently trying to manage the herd of cats that are the teabaggers) lines up stylistically more with Hayworth. Armey apparently doesn’t think much of Hayworth at a personal level, though, as he followed up with a postscript referring to Hayworth’s “fairly short, undistinguished congressional career.” McCain did bag a few more endorsements from two guys who served with Hayworth in the House in the 90s: Jim Kolbe and Matt Salmon. McCain himself is off campaigning in support of Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire today, making a little clearer where the ideological fault lines lie in that primary.

• IL-Sen: The Alexi Giannoulias camp has released another internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, which has the Democratic state treasurer leading Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, 49-45. That margin is very consistent with GQR’s last couple polls prior to the primary, which would suggest that Giannoulias weathered the nasty primary all right (although, of course, it doesn’t jibe with how Rasmussen sees the race; they most recently gave Kirk a 46-40 lead).

• KY-Sen: Another internal poll, this one from Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo, by way of Garin Hart Yang. It gives Mongo a mondo edge over AG Jack Conway in the Democratic Senate primary, 43-25. No numbers are given for the general election, though.

• NC-Sen (pdf): PPP’s release for their newest NC-Sen poll is titled “Same Old Story in Senate race,” and that pretty much sums it up. Richard Burr is still sitting on mediocre approvals and high unknowns (35/35), but thanks to the national environment and second-tier Democratic challengers, he’s still looking to survive in November. He leads SoS Elaine Marshall 43-33, ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham 44-32, and attorney Kenneth Lewis 44-31. “Generic Democrat” loses to Burr 42-35 (which was 45-36 a month ago).

• AK-Gov: Here’s a bit of a surprise out of Alaska, where appointed Gov. Sean Parnell is somewhat lagging his most prominent GOP primary opponent, former state House speaker Ralph Samuels, on the fundraising front. Parnell still brought in a little more last year ($215K to Samuels’ $179K) but Samuels raised all of his money only in December, with a lot of Samuels’ money coming from in-state big-money real estate and mining interests. Former state House minority leader Ethan Berkowitz leads fundraising efforts in the three-candidate Democratic field.

• CA-Gov: I don’t know how many times Dianne Feinstein has said that she isn’t running for Governor, but she said it again yesterday. This time it seems to be truly official and she seems to be getting it to stick.

• IL-Gov: State Sen. Kirk Dillard seems to have closed the gap in the Illinois GOP primary, with the count of absentee and provisional ballots, but it’s not clear whether it’ll be enough to turn it around, or even enough to merit a recount. Dillard says he cut Bill Brady’s 420-vote margin “in half,” but he’d previously said he wouldn’t look into a recount unless he was within 100 votes. (You do the math.) There’s no recount required by law in Illinois regardless of the margin, so it’s up to Dillard.

• KS-Gov: State Sen. Tom Holland confirmed that he’s in the Kansas gubernatorial race, filling a glaring hole that has bedeviled Kansas Democrats for a year. He’ll still be a long shot against retiring Sen. Sam Brownback, but Holland has proven resilient in beating Republicans in the rural/exurban turf between Kansas City and Lawrence.

• NV-Gov: The Nevada Education Association (the teacher’s union) commissioned a poll, by Grove Insight, that focused mostly on policy questions but also asked about the gubernatorial race. In line with other pollsters, they find Democratic Clark Co. Commissioner Rory Reid trailing Republican former AG Brian Sandoval 44-35, but whomping Republican incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons 49-33. Time for the Dems to start running pro-Gibbons ads?

• NY-Gov: This is way too meta, where a non-story becomes a story simply by virtue of its non-story-ness. Nevertheless, that promised scandal that was about to erupt about David Paterson has turned out to be pretty much a non-issue: it concerns his advisor (or body man, really) David Johnson, who it turns out has a nasty-sounding rap sheet from his distant past.

• RI-Gov: There’s a whole new centrist party in Rhode Island, the Moderate Party. And despite the fact that there’s already a prominent centrist independent running in the governor’s race (Lincoln Chafee), somehow the two aren’t getting together. Instead, the Moderate Party just announced it’s running its own centrist independent, party founder Kenneth Block. (Weirdly, he’s running instead of former US Attorney Robert Corrente, who’s becoming the new party chair in Block’s absence. Corrente might have the name rec to actually make an impression in the race.) If centrist state treasurer Frank Caprio winds up the Dem nominee, I have no idea how the votes will split — we’ll just have a whole buncha moderates trying to out-moderate each other.

• TX-Gov: Kay Bailey Hutchison has gotten the lion’s share of the establishment endorsements in the GOP gubernatorial primary in Texas, but Rick Perry landed a big name: former Gov. Bill Clements, who in 1978 was the first Republican elected governor since Reconstruction.

• AR-03: DeLay to run for the House again! Don’t worry, though, it sounds like The Hammer is sticking with Dancing with the Stars. Instead, it’s Gunner DeLay, a Republican former state Senator for Ft. Smith (which apparently puts him at a geographical disadvantage, as the district’s center of gravity is around Bentonville and Fayetteville). DeLay lost the 2006 AG race to Dem Dustin McDaniel, and lost the 2001 GOP primary in the AR-03 special election to now-Rep. John Boozman, finishing second.

• CA-33: As expected, term-limited state Assembly speaker Karen Bass just announced her candidacy to replace retiring Rep. Diane Watson in the dark-blue 33rd. She also secured Watson’s endorsement; between that and Bass’s prompt entry, the real question is whether anyone else even bothers contesting the race.

• NH-02: Maybe there’ll be two Basses in the next Congress? Republican ex-Rep. Charlie Bass made it official today, shedding the exploratory label and kicking off his campaign. Most people had been treating him as a candidate already, but he’d included some odd hedges when he announced his exploratory fund (saying it was just a place to stash old contributions) that seemed to leave him an out. With a recent UNH poll giving him the lead in the open seat race to reclaim his seat, he seems to feel confident enough to pull the trigger.

• NY-19: Ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth got a promotion in the NRCC’s Young Guns framework, moving up to the middle tier of “Contender.” However, the interesting story (buried at the bottom of the article) is that Hayworth, whose money seemed to drive Assemblyman Greg Ball out of the GOP primary, is getting a different more-conservative challenger: former Tuxedo Park mayor David McFadden, who’ll officially announce his candidacy on the 27th. Wall Street guy Neil DiCarlo is also already in the race, and Orange Co. GOP chair William DeProspo, who’s had some withering public statements about Hayworth’s qualifications, now is exploring the race as well. Cat fud, anyone?

• OH-02: Despite his celeb-reality status, former Apprentice contestant Surya Yalamanchili seems to be getting the local Democratic establishment to take him seriously. He just got the endorsement of the last two Democrats to lose close elections in this seat (which is deep-red, although Jean Schmidt’s continuing presence here makes it competitive): Vic Wulsin and Paul Hackett. He also got the endorsement of Cincinnati mayor Mark Mallory a few weeks ago. Looks like David Krikorian’s path to the nomination isn’t so certain anymore.

• PA-04: After people were starting to wonder what was with all the foot-dragging, former US Attorney (and, in that position, loyal Bushie) Mary Beth Buchanan officially entered the race for the GOP to go against Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire. She’d been a rumored candidate since October.

• PA-12: As was almost universally expected, it was decided to hold the special election to replace Rep. John Murtha on May 18, the same day as the primaries. Ed Rendell’s office justified this by saying it would cost an extra $600K to have it any other day, but this also bolsters Dem hopes here by having it on the same day as the hotly-contested Dem Senate and Governor primaries (and the barely-contested GOP primaries).

• RI-01: Two big names decided not to get into the Democratic field in the 1st (which already contains Providence mayor David Cicciline): most significantly, Lt. Governor Elizabeth Roberts, who says she’ll run for re-election instead. Secretary of State Ralph Mollis, who’d publicly considered a run, confirmed he won’t run either.

• SC-03: The Club for Growth weighed in in the GOP open seat primary in the R+17 3rd, where the choices are basically wingnut or super-wingnut. Apparently, state Rep. Jeff Duncan is the super-wingnut, as he got the endorsement over fellow state Rep. Rex Rice (who has Mike Huckabee’s endorsement, but is out because he apparently voted for a cigarette tax once).

• VA-05: How many teabaggers can they fit into the phone booth that is the GOP field in the 5th? Contractor Scott Schultz joined the quest to take on Rep. Tom Perriello, making him the 8th GOPer in the race.

• Election results: Democrats lost two legislative special elections last night, although neither one was on particularly favorable turf. While it was a hold for the Republicans rather than a GOP pickup (Dems still have a 14-10 Senate edge), the margin in New Hampshire’s SD-16 (a traditionally Republican area located in part of Manchester and its suburbs) may still leave NH Dems nervous. State Rep. David Boutin defeated Democratic state Rep. Jeff Goley 58-42. In Alabama’s HD-40, though, Republicans picked up a Dem-held open seat (in rural NE Alabama, which has been dark-red at the presidential level and blue at the state level for a long time but where the red is starting to trickle down downballot). Funeral home owner K.L. Brown defeated teacher Ricky Whaley 56-42. Dems still control the Alabama House (for now), 60-45.

AR-Sen (Lincoln): Tossup to Lean R

Rep. John Boozman officially entered the Arkansas Senate race this weekend. While he had telegraphed this for weeks, his official entry means that there’s finally a top-tier candidate for the Republicans. This race was a tossup even with a grab-bag of state legislators and self-funders, thanks to the Democratic brand’s decay in Arkansas and Blanche Lincoln’s play-it-down-the-middle-and-appeal-to-nobody approach. Two polls this week gave Boozman a lead over Lincoln in the 20-point ballpark, though, indicating that a stronger Republican probably pushes this one out of Lincoln’s grasp.

Boozman will still have to fight his way out of the crowded GOP primary — state Sen. Gilbert Baker and businessman Curtis Coleman aren’t getting out of the way (although some of the lesser opposition, like Tom Cox and Buddy Rogers, have bailed out), and Boozman’s long House tenure may be a liability in an anti-incumbent, anti-establishment year. His base in the state’s dark-red northwest will probably see him through the primary, though.

IL-Gov (Quinn): Likely D to Tossup

It’s a bit of a surprise that Pat Quinn survived the primary election, as the primary campaign revealed he had something of a glass jaw, and the last few polls of the race showed him with terrible approval ratings and getting edged by challenger Dan Hynes. It’s never a good sign to have a bloody, depleted victor staggering out of a barely-won primary, and his problems are compounded by general anti-incumbent fervor and bad economic conditions in the Rust Belt, which is enough for us to move this race all the way up to Tossup.

Still, there are a few things that Quinn has in his favor: he has an extremely long period (nine months) to rehabilitate himself, while the Republicans won’t even have a nominee for a while, and most likely it’ll be Bill Brady — while Illinois throughout the 80s and 90s was happy to elect moderate, suburban Republicans to statewide office, it remains to be seen whether a socially conservative downstate resident can get over the hump. Finally, the Scott Lee Cohen sideshow quickly and suitably resolved itself this weekend, leaving the state party to pick a more appealing running mate… although, after some initial lukewarm interest, Hynes has now taken his name out of consideration for a unity ticket.

You can find our complete ratings here: Sen | Gov.

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen | IL-Gov

PPP (pdf) (1/29-31, likely voters, 8/21-24 in parentheses)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 33

John Boozman (R): 56

Undecided: 11

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 35 (40)

Gilbert Baker (R): 50 (42)

Undecided: 15 (18)

Bill Halter (D): 30

John Boozman (R): 53

Undecided: 17

Bill Halter (D): 34

Gilbert Baker (R): 45

Undecided: 21

Wesley Clark (D): 36

John Boozman (R): 51

Undecided: 13

Wesley Clark (D): 39

Gilbert Baker (R): 45

Undecided: 16

Mike Ross (D): 37

John Boozman (R): 48

Undecided: 15

Mike Ross (D): 39

Gilbert Baker (R): 39

Undecided: 22

Mike Beebe (D): 43

John Boozman (R): 44

Undecided: 13

Mike Beebe (D): 46

Gilbert Baker (R): 38

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±3.4%)

Looks like Blanche Lincoln picked the wrong year to be a Democrat in Arkansas. Basically, Blanche Lincoln has become something of a Generic Congressional Democrat to the Arkansas electorate: 55% think that Congressional Democrats are too liberal (compared with 12% too conservative and 32% about right), and a very similar 52% think Lincoln is too liberal (with 14% too conservative and 28% about right). Clocking in at 27/62 approvals, she loses badly not only to the sort-of-known Rep. John Boozman (32/25 favorables) — who’s currently in a “I’m running but I’m not running yet” limbo — but the barely-known state Sen. Gilbert Baker (9/16, with 75% not sure).

Substitute Democrats in the race fare little better, in case Lincoln gets the message and opts for a nice health insurance industry lobbyist job instead. The problem isn’t one of personalities (seeing as Dems have a strong bench here, including a freakin’ war hero) but the statewide brand, or more specifically, the state’s perception of the national party. This is best seen with the puzzling case of Gov. Mike Beebe, here with a 59/22 approval (not astounding, but probably still one of the best among all governors) but with a walking-on-water 82/9 in a different poll last month. Even Beebe, easily the most popular man in Arkansas, still loses to Boozman and is the only Dem to get past unknown Baker. Highly suggestive that Arkansas is happy to keep its Dems in-state, but currently very unenthused about sending them to the Senate. (See also conspiracy‘s diary.)

Rasmussen (2-1, likely voters, 1/5 in parentheses)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 35

John Boozman (R): 54

Some other: 4

Not sure: 7

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 33 (39)

Gilbert Baker (R): 52 (51)

Some other: 6 (3)

Not sure: 8 (7)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 35 (39)

Kim Hendren (R): 51 (47)

Some other: 7 (4)

Not sure: 7 (10)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 34 (38)

Curtis Coleman (R): 50 (48)

Some other: 7 (4)

Not sure: 9 (9)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 36 (38)

Tom Cox (R): 50 (48)

Some other: 6 (5)

Not sure: 9 (9)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

It’s not every day that you see Rasmussen having a more optimistic view of a race than PPP, although here it may simply be a less catastrophic view. Boozman here leads by a mere 19. More alarming here, perhaps, are the trendlines on the races against the miscellaneous Republican parts and pieces here: they aren’t gaining ground so much as Lincoln is further losing ground, sinking down into the mid-30s regardless of opponent.

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

Some of the others poll better but even Beebe loses to Boozman.

Lincoln 33

Boozman 56

Lincoln 35

Baker 50

Ross 37

Boozman 48

Ross 39

Baker 39

Halter 30

Boozman 53

Halter 34

Baker 45

Clark 36

Boozman 51

Clark 39

Baker 45

Beebe 43

Boozman 44

Beebe 46

Baker 38

For all you purists Lincoln’s problems are certainly not because she isn’t liberal enough. A majority of Arkansas voters say she is too liberal.

The only silver lining is that these other Dems all have high “don’t knows” in terms of favorability but then so do both Boozman and Baker. I think we have to face facts – the state wants a Republican senator.

In a piece on GOP Rep. John Boozman’s plan to challenge Blanche Lincoln, the Politico has a tasty cat fud alert:

His candidacy hurts the prospects of state senator Gilbert Baker, who looked like the GOP frontrunner after he announced his campaign last September. Baker got off to a fast fundraising start – aided by his connections in the state legislature – but struggled to raise additional money in the fourth quarter, announcing today that he added just $293,000 to his campaign coffers.

Sources close to Baker’s campaign said the state senator will remain in the race, and draw a stark contrast between Boozman’s Washington background with his legislative work in Arkansas. Baker campaign officials believe that the congressman’s support of the Troubled Assets Relief Program to aid banks could hurt him with conservative primary voters.

At the very least, the primary should be fun!

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen | AR-03

• AR-Sen: Despite the seemingly imminent entry of Rep. John Boozman into the GOP field in the Arkansas Senate race, soon-to-be-former-frontrunner state Sen. Gilbert Baker says he’s staying in the race. The alternative would be to run for Baker, who represents Little Rock suburbs, to run for the open seat in AR-02 instead – but there he’d face a tough primary against Beltway GOP favorite Tim Griffin, who’s already established a solid fundraising foothold. (Some of the seven dwarves in the GOP field, who seem concentrated in the state’s right-leaning northwest, may be interested in switching to Boozman’s open seat in AR-03, though.) And unbelievably, yet another Republican is interested in getting in the Senate race: former NFL player Jim Lindsey is readying for a bid. Lindsey is a real estate developer and former University of Arkansas trustee.

• AZ-Sen: Sarah Palin is still dancin’ with the one who brung her. She announced yesterday that she’ll appear on behalf of John McCain, who plucked her from near-obscurity and is now needs a favor of his own as he’s facing a primary challenge from the right from ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth. Needless to say, this provoked a lot of disappointment from her supporters among the teabagging set, who would prefer to see her stab McCain in the back and then field dress him.

• CO-Sen: With right-wingers filled with antipathy toward establishment choice ex-Lt. Gov. Jane Norton, there’s been a lot of casting about for an alternative. Weld County DA Ken Buck seems more and more like he’ll be that guy, as he’s been making common cause with the Paulists, who are now planning to pay for a statewide advertising campaign on Buck’s behalf. Meanwhile, on the Dem side, primary challenger Andrew Romanoff is trying to energize his sleepy campaign with a big hire – pollster Celinda Lake, whose previously sterling reputation got driven off a cliff with her handling of the Martha Coakley campaign.

• CT-Sen: There’s not much left to see for the 2010 race, but everyone’s thinking ahead to 2012, with the new rumor afoot that – with the Senate Kennedy-free for the first time in more than half a century – Ted Kennedy Jr. may run against Joe Lieberman in 2012. Lieberman himself is up to his usual asshattery, speculating out loud that he could conceive of becoming a Republican, and also saying that he might support Linda McMahon in the 2010 race… seeing as how Richard Blumenthal (tepidly) supported Lamont in the 2006 general while McMahon supported Lieberman. Apparently Lieberman learned his politics from watching the Godfather: it’s not business. Just personal. (Lieberman also seems to be a believer in leaving the cannoli, and taking the guns.)

• FL-Sen: In the wake of new polling showing him falling behind Marco Rubio in the GOP Senate primary, the questions are getting louder about whether Charlie Crist might consider running as an independent instead. He said no to that idea… but people are noticing he didn’t rule out switching parties altogether. With Crist appearing side-by-side with Barack Obama today in Florida (something he wouldn’t consider doing if he saw any hope in trying to compete with Rubio – who just got the endorsement of ur-conservative Steve Forbes — on conservative bona fides alone), could that actually be a consideration? If so, he’d need to switch parties by April 30.

• MA-Sen: There are a couple more retrospectives worth reading on Massachusetts, as people try to make sense of the mixed messages sent by exit polls (with one particularly intriguing tidbit: 52% of Scott Brown voters approved of Ted Kennedy’s performance). Mark Blumenthal also looks at the shift in polling over the last few weeks, wondering again about the differing results gotten by live interviewers vs. robocallers, while also pointing to questions of how much pollsters’ views of a race can actually change the overall momentum of the race (fundraising and perception-wise) and thus become a self-fulfilling prophecy. And get ready for the teabaggers’ week-long love affair to end very soon: Scott Brown (who apparently has some self-preservation instincts) just served notice on the GOP that he won’t always vote with them.

• ND-Sen: This isn’t going to make the teabaggers any happier: Gov. John Hoeven, now running for the Senate, joined the Democratic Party in 1996 (at a time when he was head of North Dakota’s state-owned bank), ditching them in 2000 for his gubernatorial run. With Hoeven already on their naughty list for his insufficiently anti-government stances, now he’s just going to get more wrath.

• NH-Sen: Former AG Kelly Ayotte is wielding an internal poll by the Tarrance Group that gives her a big edge in the GOP primary against her challengers. She leads Ovide Lamontagne, coming at her from the right, 43-11. Random rich guys Bill Binnie and Jim Bender clock in at 5 and 3 apiece. No general election numbers were released.

• NV-Sen: One more disastrous poll for Harry Reid, which came out from Research 2000 a few days ago. This poll closely echoed one from PPP a few weeks ago that tested alternative Democrats, and finds that only Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman beats the Republicans (while Rep. Shelly Berkley and SoS Ross Miller don’t fare much better than Reid). Unfortunately, this was all rendered moot a few days ago by Goodman’s announcement that he wasn’t going to run for either Governor or Senator. Reid loses 52-41 to Danny Tarkanian and 51-42 to Sue Lowden. Berkley loses 46-40 to Tarkanian and 45-40 to Lowden, while Miller loses 44-36 to Tarkanian and 43-37 to Lowden. Goodman beats Tarkanian 44-41 and Lowden 44-40. Rep. Dina Titus, facing a tough re-election of her own, doesn’t seem to think much of Reid’s chances anymore: she publicly said “Reid is done; he’s going to lose.”

• NY-Sen-B: One other Research 2000 poll to talk about: they looked at the Democratic primary in New York, and find about what everyone else has found. Kirsten Gillibrand leads ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. by a 41-27 margin (with 3 for Jonathan Tasini), looking solid but still with a ton of undecideds. This also exists merely at the level of rumor, but with the potential presence of Ford scrambling things for the ever-so-briefly-thought-to-be-safe Gillibrand, sources say that Democratic Rep. Steve Israel (who got dissuaded from a primary challenge) and Republican ex-Gov. George Pataki (who hasn’t sounded interested until now) are both giving the race a little more consideration.

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): Franklin & Marshall’s previous polls in Pennsylvania have tended to have unusually high undecideds, suggesting that they don’t do any pushing of leaners at all – but this may have reached an all-time high with their new poll. Most notably, they find Allegeheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato completely dominating the Democratic gubernatorial primary… at 10% (more than doubling up on Jack Wagner, Joe Hoeffel, and Chris Doherty, all at 4)! They also find similarly low numbers in the Senate race, where Republican ex-Rep. Pat Toomey leads incumbent Dem Arlen Specter 45-31 and Rep. Joe Sestak 41-19 (?!?), and where Specter beats Sestak in the primary 30-13. (They didn’t do a general election poll in the Governor’s race, but find Republican AG Tom Corbett leading his remaining rival, state Rep. Sam Rohrer, 23-5 in the primary.)

• UT-Sen: The Mason-Dixon poll that gave us some (not so good) gubernatorial results also threw in some vague questions about the Senate race too. Incumbent Bob Bennett leads a Generic R in the primary, 46-27, and a Generic D 53-26 in the general. Nevertheless, Bennett drew yet another primary opponent, albeit someone seemingly of the Some Dude variety: local businessman Christopher Stout.

• WI-Sen: Wherever there’s a vacillating Republican needing convincing to get into a Senate race, there’s Rasmussen. (Whaddya wanna bet they have a Patty Murray/Dave Reichert poll in the field right now?) Contrary to PPP’s view of the race, Rasmussen finds ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson leading incumbent Dem Russ Feingold, 47-43. They find Feingold with a perplexingly low 47/48 approval.

• CT-Gov: Is ex-Rep. Chris Shays looking to get into the Governor’s race? Suddenly, it sounds like he’s at least thinking about it, saying he’d like to do it but not sure if it’s feasible. He’s currently in Washington as head of the Wartime Contracting Commission, meaning he’d need to re-establish his Connecticut residency, but given his long-time popularity in his district (which eventually got too blue for him to hold) he might have a leg up on the so-so GOPers already in the field.

• FL-Gov: Quinnipiac released the gubernatorial half of its Florida poll yesterday, finding that Republican AG Bill McCollum has a somewhat bigger lead on Democratic CFO Alex Sink, 41-31 (McCollum led 36-32 in October). Sink leads state Sen. Paula Dockery 35-29, but considering that McCollum leads Dockery 44-6 in the GOP primary, that configuration doesn’t seem likely.

• MI-Gov: Two guys who had been unlikely candidates for the Democratic nomination for Governor both announced they wouldn’t run. Rep. Bart Stupak is the big name to say “no,” which is good as far as the DCCC is concerned, as he’s needed to hold down the fort in his R+3 district. The other is Detroit Pistons head of basketball operations Joe Dumars, who probably realized he’d get pretty banged up out there without Bill Laimbeer to run interference for him. One other interesting rumor of who might run, though, is ex-Rep. Joe Schwarz, the GOP moderate who got bounced out in a 2006 Club for Growth-fueled primary by Tim Walberg. And get this… he’s talking about running as an independent. Could he actually peel off enough center-right votes for the Dems to salvage this race?

• NY-Gov: Research 2000’s New York poll also looked at the Democratic gubernatorial primary, finding AG Andrew Cuomo defeating incumbent David Paterson, 63-19. Paterson is laboring under 34/54 approvals. The GOP primary to see who gets flattened by Cuomo is looking pretty uneventful: Erie Co. Exec Chris Collins, who continued to express vague interest despite having gaffed his way out of contention several months ago, finally pulled the plug on his exploratory committee. That leaves ex-Rep. Rick Lazio as the only major GOPer in the race, to few people’s enthusiasm.

• TX-Gov: Looks like Gov. Rick Perry isn’t much of a fan of the librul media, or at least he realizes that his key demographics aren’t really the newspaper-reading types. He’s decided not to sit for editorial board interviews prior to their pre-primary endorsements.  

From Roll Call:

Barring a last-minute change of heart, Rep. John Boozman (R) appears set to jump into Arkansas’ Senate race in the coming days.

Sources on Capitol Hill said Wednesday that Boozman, the lone GOP Member of the state’s Congressional delegation, has made it clear that he intends to challenge Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) in November. Boozman already has much of his Senate campaign team in place, and the announcement is expected to take place in Arkansas before the weekend is out.

When asked about a potential Senate bid Wednesday, a spokeswoman for Boozman would only say “nothing has been announced officially.”

Mason-Dixon (1/18-20, likely voters):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39

Gilbert Baker (R): 43

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43

Jim Holt (R): 37

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40

Curtis Coleman (R): 39

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41

Conrad Reynolds (R): 38

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43

Kim Hendren (R): 38

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41

Tom Cox (R): 38

(MoE: ±4%)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 52

Bill Halter (D): 34

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 63

Bob Johnson (D): 22

(MoE: ±6%)

Mason-Dixon takes a first look at the Arkansas Senate race (on behalf of the Arkansas News Bureau), and while the results are still pretty ugly, they’re not as bad as some other pollsters have seen it — to the extent that there’s actually a path to victory for Lincoln. Not that it’s really in her control: she just needs to hope that the GOP manages to nominate one of the seven dwarves populating the GOP field, instead of the somewhat more appealing state Sen. Gilbert Baker (who leads her by 4)… or more ominously, that Rep. John Boozman doesn’t decide to get into the race, at which point the game would likely be over. Mason-Dixon also find her currently surviving potential Democratic primary challenges (from the left from Lt. Gov. Bill Halter or from the right from state Sen. President Bob Johnson — both of which have been rumored, but nothing tangible has happened yet).

With Lincoln’s stock palpably sinking, there have been persistent rumors that the DSCC is telling Lincoln behind-the-scenes that she might want to consider getting out of the way, Chris Dodd-style. Unfortunately, there’s no Richard Blumenthal waiting in the wings in the Wonder State, making this rumor seem unlikely — although there was a whiff of a rumor of a Wesley Clark run in her place (or a run by Rep. Mike Ross, which would probably generate much less netroots enthusiasm than a Clark run — although that could create a New Mexico-2008 type scenario where every House seat in the state is open). Lincoln herself acted this morning to bat down these rumors, saying she’s under no pressure to retire and doesn’t plan to do so, despite consistently polling in the 40% range.

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen