Tag: John Boozman

Zata|3 (D) for Talk Business (7/17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 32

John Boozman (R): 57

Trevor Drown (I): 3

John Gray (G): 2

Undecided: 6

Mike Beebe (D-inc): 50

Jim Keet (R): 41

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±3.7%)

This is the first non-Rasmussen poll of the race following the June runoff, and while it’s certainly a little gaudy for John Boozman, I have every reason to believe this is going to be a painful race to watch. Somewhat frustratingly, Zata3 doesn’t provide party breakdowns (PDF). I’ll also note that their sample is older and more male than the 2008 exit polls, though of course, 2010 ain’t 2008.

Mike Beebe’s numbers also stand out – not because they’re terrible or anything, but because pretty much everyone had him figured as unassailable, even in a year like this. Indeed, PPP has regularly found him to be one of the most popular governors in the nation, a pretty remarkable feat given how badly almost every incumbent is performing. So it’s possible that these numbers are a little too good for Keet, a former state legislator who hasn’t held office since 1996 and who’s been absolutely swamped on the fundraising front. I definitely would like to see confirmation before concluding this race might be competitive.

AR-Sen: John Boozman says that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will be coming to Little Rock to stump for him next month.

CO-Sen: Ex-Lt. Gov. Jane Norton is attempting to rebut some ugly public polling with an internal of her own from Public Opinion Strategies. Norton’s survey has her up 39-33 in the GOP primary against Weld County DA Ken Buck, but a SurveyUSA poll taken last week showed her getting killed, 53-37.

FL-Sen: Rep. Kendrick Meek and zillionaire asshole Jeff Greene had a seriously feisty debate the other night. I cannot do it justice by summarizing, so I encourage you read the Palm Beach Post’s account. Also of note, Greene is taking a page from the John Kasich playbook and refusing to make his tax returns public. In a display of leadership, he said disclosure was his wife’s call – who said “hell no” when asked by reporters if she would do so.

LA-Sen: As Crisitunity noted, Rep. Charlie Melancon has a real crisitunity to deal with vis-a-vis the gulf oil spill, and it’s been interesting watching the issue play out on the campaign trail. Melancon may have gotten a gift with a federal district court judge’s ruling against the offshore drilling moratorium (something Melancon opposes), but contrary to his wishes, the Obama administration will indeed appeal.

NV-Sen: Jon Ralston, one of Nevada’s top political analysts, points out that Sharron Angle has been touting an endorsement on her website from a bunch of lunatics called the “Declaration Alliance.” They’re a birther outfit, and Ralston has been trying to get Angle on the record as to whether she shares their views – but, says Ralston, “She no longer answers her voicemail, and her press secretary’s voicemail is full.” I’m sure Ralston’ll ask her all about this next week, when he interviews her on his TV show. Here are a couple of other things he ought to bring up: Angle’s statements that unemployed folks have been “spoiled” by government “entitlement” – and that bringing jobs to Nevada wouldn’t be, well, her job as senator. This should be a fun interview!

OH-Gov: As Dave Catanese says, on the campaign trail, “a candidate’s humble upbringing is almost always safe from attack.” So you really have to wonder why in the fuck John Kasich thought it would be a good idea to mock Ted Strickland’s background, braying about his opponent: “Having grown up in a chicken shack on Duck Run, he has all but ignored our cities’ economies and their workers.” Not that you needed it, but even more evidence that Kasich is a grade-A schmuck with a tin ear: He told Alan Colmes he would not be “singing in any chorus for LeBron James” to help keep the NBA uber-star Ohio’ #1 Citizen in Cleveland. Christ, what an asshole!

NV-Gov: Anjeanette Damon of the Las Vegas Sun says that Rory Reid may be going up on the air with TV ads as soon as today – but that’s it. No further details on the nature of the ad, where it might run, or, of course, the size of the buy.

AR-01: Tim Wooldridge is doing everything in his power to convince 1st CD Democrats that they were right to select Chad Causey as their nominee instead of him. He’s still refusing to endorse Causey, and in an interview with Politico, he had kind words for Rick Crawford, the GOP nominee, calling him a “fine fella.” With Dems like these….

FL-06: Will Joe Barton be the next Joe Wilson? Or will he become… well, I just can’t think of a single Republican in recent memory who has been exorcised by the party for saying something outrageous. Which suggests to me that, in fact, GOP rank-and-file are probably cheering Barton for having the “guts” to say the quiet part loud. Indeed, Dave Weigel points to several Republicans who have been aping Barton’s “shakedown” language.) Anyhow, Barton’s doing a fundraiser for Cliff Stearns next week, so it’ll be interesting to see what kind of draw Smokey Joe will be. Stearns doesn’t face any meaningful opposition in this 56% McCain district and has $2.5 million on hand, so I wonder why Barton is doing him the favor in the first place.

KY-03: Todd Lally, the GOP nominee in the 3rd CD, said that fellow Kentuckian Mitch McConnell told him to go twist when he asked for fundraising help. But not to worry – Rand Paul to the rescue! The libertarian freakazoid will apparently do two events with Lally this summer, something I’m sure will play well back in Louisville.

MI-03: Retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers endorsed businessman and former Kent County Commissioner Steve Heacock to succeed him, but pledged to support whomever wins the August 3rd GOP primary. Also in the race are state Sen. Bill Hardiman, state Rep. Justin Amash, attorney Louise Johnson, and Air Force vet Bob Overbeek. Amash recently dinged Heacock for copying and pasting position statements from other Republicans (like Paul Ryan and fellow Michigander Dave Camp) and posting them on his website without attribution. (Heacock has since taken them down.)

MI-07: After a local Republican club announced that Rudy Giuliani would be doing a fundraiser for ex-Rep. Tim Walberg, Brian Rooney (Walberg’s primary opponent) pounced, citing Giuliani’s squishiness on abortion. Rooney’s camp must have been pleased to make the hit, since Walberg had previously zinged Rooney for failing to show up at an anti-abortion group event a few months ago. In any case, Walberg is now saying no, no, no – there was never going to be a Rudy fundraiser in the first place (though his campaign manager said they’d like to do something in the future).

MO-07: Missouri Right to Life endorsed self-funding businessman Billy Long, citing unhappiness with the voting record of state Sens. Gary Nodler and Jack Goodman, the other two major candidates in the race to succeed Roy Blunt. This is a 63% McCain district, though, and we have no real candidate, so any cat fud here is for entertainment purposes only.

WATN: Former Rep. Don Cazayoux was unanimously confirmed as the U.S. Attorney for the Middle District of Louisiana by the Senate yesterday. Here’s wishing Cazayoux – who is only 46 – a successful tenure and, hopefully, a return to electoral politics some day.

Research 2000 (6/2-4, likely voters, 5/24-26 in parens):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 45 (44)

Bill Halter (D): 49 (47)

Undecided: 6 (9)

(MoE: ±4%)

One caveat here is that this sample claims that they voted for Halter over Lincoln by a 48-46 margin (with 3% for D.C. Morrison and another 3% who didn’t vote) in the first round of voting. Lincoln, as you recall, narrowly claimed a first place showing three weeks ago. However, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see enthusiasm among Lincoln voters dimming (especially after witnessing her sadsack runoff campaign), so these numbers may not be out to lunch at all.

DailyKos decided to take a pass on polling the general election match-ups this time, but that will be the next hot topic after Tuesday.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/24-26, likely voters, 5/10-12 in parens for general election match-ups):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 44

Bill Halter (D): 47

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±5%)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 38 (40)

John Boozman (R): 58 (54)

Undecided: 4 (6)

Bill Halter (D): 42 (41)

John Boozman (R): 53 (50)

Undecided: 5 (9)

(MoE: ±4%)

Bill, finish her! This is the third consecutive poll from Research 2000 showing Lincoln fading in a head-to-head against Boozman, and her net general election favorability has dropped to a negative 21 points — while Halter is still in the black by 10. While the runoff should still be an incredible dogfight, especially since Lincoln has the Big Dog, Bill Clinton, in her corner, I’m liking Halter’s odds. And that means we may have a fighting chance of at least making a race of this state in November.

We should note, though, that R2K previously looked at the runoff question in a methodologically unsound snap poll for Democracy For America. That poll has Halter up by 48-46.

Mason-Dixon (5/3-5, likely voters, 1/18-20 in parens):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 44 (52)

Bill Halter (D): 32 (34)

D.C. Morrison (D): 7 (n/a)

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±5%)

John Boozman (R): 48

Jim Holt (R): 17

Gilbert Baker (R): 11

Kim Hendren (R): 5

Conrad Reynolds (R): 2

Curtis Coleman (R): 1

Other: 1

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±5%)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 35

John Boozman (R): 52

Undecided: 13

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39 (39)

Gilbert Baker (R): 47 (43)

Undecided: 14 (18)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40 (43)

Jim Holt (R): 45 (37)

Undecided: 15 (20)

Bill Halter (D): 32

John Boozman (R): 56

Undecided: 12

Bill Halter (D): 34

Gilbert Baker (R): 42

Undecided: 24

Bill Halter (D): 36

Jim Holt (R): 42

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4%)

Remember, in Arkansas, if one candidate fails to get 50% on May 18, then we’ll have a run-off on June 8th. The entry of weirdo Paulist D.C. Morrison suggests that this is a possibility on the Dem side, and the fractured GOP field might also yield a run-off, unless John Boozman can seal the deal soon – which he may be close to doing. In light of this, run-off hopeful Gilbert Baker has released his own numbers (PDF) from The Political Firm showing him in second place with 22% (with Boozman at 44 and Jim Holt! in third with just 8). Research 2000 will have a new survey out this week, and I’m sure they won’t be alone.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (4/12-14, likely voters, 3/22-24 in parentheses):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 45 (44)

Bill Halter (D): 33 (31)

Other: 6 (0)

Undecided: 16 (25)

(MoE: ±5%)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43 (42)

John Boozman (R): 50 (49)

Undecided: 7 (9)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41 (41)

Gilbert Baker (R): 48 (49)

Undecided: 11 (10)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 42 (43)

Kim Hendren (R): 49 (48)

Undecided: 9 (9)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43 (44)

Curtis Coleman (R): 46 (47)

Undecided: 11 (9)

Bill Halter (D): 41 (40)

John Boozman (R): 48 (48)

Undecided: 11 (12)

Bill Halter (D): 43 (44)

Gilbert Baker (R): 45 (46)

Undecided: 12 (10)

Bill Halter (D): 43 (44)

Kim Hendren (R): 46 (45)

Undecided: 11 (11)

Bill Halter (D): 44 (45)

Curtis Coleman (R): 43 (44)

Undecided: 13 (11)

(MoE: ±4%)

There’s hardly any change here in the topline numbers from the R2K poll of Arkansas released last Friday, either in the primary, or especially in the general. (There were also Tom Cox matchups; I’m leaving them out, as he’s dropped out.) Undecideds are dropping in the primary, but the real gainer here is “other,” probably in the form of previously unknown conservadem D.C. Morrison.

The numbers to note in this poll are the approvals: Blanche Lincoln’s problem is that everyone has an opinion of her, and the majority of that is negative: 43/53. Bill Halter, by contrast, is at 47/30. 23% still haven’t formed an opinion of him, giving him room to grow. Lincoln, by contrast, has hit her ceiling and is upside down — not the conditions that get you re-elected.

Zata|3 for Talk Business (4/13, likely voters, no trendlines):

John Boozman (R): 46

Gilbert Baker (R): 14

Jim Holt (R): 8

Curtis Coleman (R): 5

Randy Alexander (R): 3

Kim Hendren (R): 3

Conrad Reynolds (R): 3

Fred Ramey (R): 1

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±3%)

Talk Business is out with the Republican half of its poll of the Arkansas Senate primaries. Surprisingly, this seems to be the first public poll anyone has taken of the primary on the GOP side… which is fast-approaching on May 18 (which is shaping up as kind of the Super Tuesday of Senate primaries). What’s not surprising: Rep. John Boozman, a late entrant but the race’s lone heavyweight, is firm control of the race.

The one possible roadblock to Boozman: Arkansas is one of the handful of southern states that uses a runoff system (the runoff would be June 8). Boozman is closing in on the 50% mark, but if he falls short, he’d be forced into a two-man race. And against state Sen. Gilbert Baker, that could be competitive if Baker consolidated all the other non-Boozman votes (which are presumably from the anti-establishment, anti-DC, religious right and/or teabagger side of things). Baker’s not counting himself out, clearly seeing that path with his switch to anti-insider rhetoric lately… and saying today that “No one gave Marco Rubio a chance when he challenged Charlie Crist.”

• CA-Sen: Republican Assemblyman Chuck DeVore is still lagging in the single digits in polling, but prominent conservatives keep coming to his aid. He just got the endorsement of libertarian-minded Arizona Rep. Jeff Flake, and also of the Tea Party Express (the corporate wing of the teabaggers’ movement).

• DE-Sen: “Repeal!” of HCR has become the rallying cry for almost every Republican candidate for federal office lately, but Rep. Mike Castle has stood out from the crowd with his reluctance, saying repeal is not “realistic.” Now that’s turning into an issue in his GOP primary, where his far-right opponent, marketing consultant and occasional Fox News contributor Christine O’Donnell, is accusing him of “breaking faith” with Delaware voters by not supporting it. A few other of the more sensible GOPers running in blue states, like Rob Simmons and Tom Campbell, are also keeping repeal at arms-length.

• FL-Sen: Good news for Charlie Crist, I suppose: Mason-Dixon has polled the GOP primary, and they find that he’s losing to Marco Rubio by a mere 11 points (much less than a number of other pollsters, ranging from Rasmussen to R2K, have found): 48-37. Crist leads Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek 50-26, while Rubio leads Meek 44-29, although half of respondents didn’t know who Meek was. Meanwhile, you might have forgotten (as I often did) that ex-New Hampshire Sen. Bob Smith was, as far as he was concerned, in the GOP primary as well. Well, not anymore: Smith shuttered his campaign today, citing (big surprise) fundraising problems.

• WA-Sen: If there’s one group that should be getting behind Dino Rossi’s possible Senate candidacy, it’s the Washington Association of Realtors. Not only are they a usually conservative-leaning organization with close ties to the builders’ lobby, but also Rossi is one of them: his day job is real estate salesperson. So, hot on the heels of yesterday’s R2K poll, here’s another problem Rossi needs to seriously contemplate: WAR just endorsed Patty Murray.

• CA-Gov: Remember Pete Wilson? The former Governor is largely responsible for turning the California Republican Party’s name into mud, among Latinos, in the 1990s with his support for anti-immigrant Proposition 187 — a decision that may have had short-term benefits but has turned into a long-term disaster as the state’s demographics change. The California Accountability Project is shining the spotlight back on Wilson in his new job: campaign chair for Meg Whitman.

• MI-Gov: Um, no. Just no. Mop-topped attorney Geoffrey Fieger is best known for his defense of Jack Kevorkian, but he also somehow wound up with the 1998 Democratic gubernatorial nomination and went on to lose to John Engler by a 62-38 margin after a slew of bone-headed remarks. Fieger now says he’s considering another run at the Democratic nomination.

• NY-Gov (pdf): Marist has a new poll of the New York gubernatorial race, finding that party-switching Suffolk Co. Executive Steven Levy is in for a rude reception from the GOP. He’s losing the primary to ex-Rep. Rick Lazio, 53-21. Andrew Cuomo dispatches either one, 61-30 against Lazio or 65-26 against Levy. Meanwhile, the saga of David Paterson (with a 16/80 job rating according to Marist) keeps getting sadder/weirder/yuckier, with a NYT article today about his attempts to secure an endorsement from the woman involved in a domestic dispute with one of his top aides.

• TN-Gov: The GOP side in the gubernatorial race shrank today, with the withdrawal of Shelby County DA Bill Gibbons from the race. He had the advantage of being the only western Tennessee candidate in the primary, but he never got very far on the fundraising front. Meanwhile, among what’s left of the Democratic field, beer baron Mike McWherter just got an endorsement from Memphis’s new mayor, A.C. Wharton. McWherter’s only remaining Dem opponent is former state House majority leader Kim McMillan.

• AR-03, PA-07: Mike Huckabee offered up two different endorsements, one right on his home turf. He endorsed former state Rep. Doug Matayo in the open seat race to succeed John Boozman in the dark-red 3rd. The other place seems kind of odd: endorsing ostensibly moderate Pat Meehan in the Dem-leaning, heavily Catholic, decidedly non-Southern-fried PA-07.

• HI-01: The final candidate list for the May 22 all-mail special election in the 1st is out. The only three candidates of consequence are, as expected, Colleen Hanabusa and Ed Case for the Dems, and Charles Djou for the GOP. With the winner-takes-all nature, minor candidates may weigh heavily on the outcome, but there’s a pretty even split with three extra no-name Democrats and four extra GOPers, as well as four independents.

• KS-03: Stephene Moore, the wife of retiring Rep. Dennis Moore, backed off slightly from reports yesterday that she was entering the race to succeed him. She said that she was going to continue thinking about it and would have a formal statement soon. Chris Cillizza has sources, though, who say it’s a done deal.

• IL-LG: It sounds like Pat Quinn has settled on something of an outsider (albeit one with a famous family name) for his Lt. Governor running mate: Sheila Simon, the daughter of former Sen. (and former LG) Paul Simon. She’s a law professor at Southern Illinois Univ., whose only political experience seems to be losing a race for Carbondale mayor. State Sen. Susan Garrett appears to have been bypassed over not supporting Quinn’s income tax plan, which Simon supports. Meanwhile, supporters of African-American Rep. Art Turner are warning of depressed black turnout in November if Quinn doesn’t opt for Turner instead.

• RNC: A decision from the trial-level U.S. District Court in Washington DC was a fundraising setback for the RNC, which wanted to be able to raise unlimited soft money from corporations and individuals but didn’t receive the green light to do so.

Our twice-daily digests are also open threads for any campaign-related news you might have. Interesting/helpful links always appreciated!

AR-Sen: State Sen. Gilbert Baker is jumping all over GOP primary opponent Rep. John Boozman for his extensive travels abroad on the taxpayer dime. In a statement, Baker promised that, as senator, he will be sure to visit Paris, London, and England – all towns in Arkansas.

CA-Sen: NOM, NOM, NOM. The haters at the National Organization for (Heterosexual-Only) Marriage have launched an ad campaign attacking Republican ex-Rep. Tom Campbell for supporting gay marriage. CQ describes it as a statewide ad buy, but at only $275,000, that doesn’t get you very much in California. Meanwhile, Carlyfornia has drunk the winger kool-aid – while she supported cap-and-trade when stumping for John McCain two years ago, now she’s against it. Of course.

FL-Sen: Heh – PPP asked Floridians who their favorite governors are out of the last five to hold office. Only 4% of Republicans answered Charlie Crist – fewer than the number who named either Dem Bob Graham or Dem Lawton Chiles.

PA-Sen: Republican pollster Susquehanna has GOPer Pat Toomey up over Arlen Specter by 42-36, in contrast to recent polls by Quinnipiac and Research 2000 showing Specter leading by that margin. Susquehanna didn’t poll the Dem primary, though, and more weirdly, they didn’t even test Joe Sestak against Toomey. Huh?

FL-22: Toward the bottom of an interesting, in-depth look at Base Connect (the sketchy GOP consultants formerly known as BMW Direct), Dave Weigel has a good catch. It turns out that the much-hyped vet Allen West is also a BMW client. He’s raised $1.2 million this cycle, an extraordinary sum for a challenger, but check out that burn rate – he’s spent over $500,000 so far. His opponent, Rep. Ron Klein, has only spent $95K. West still has a lot of cash on hand, but this revelation changes the picture somewhat.

NY-13: SEIU chief Andy Stern says that his organization will back independent candidacies against House Dems who vote against healthcare. It seems that Stern would prefer to challenge wayward Dems in primaries, but many filing deadlines have already passed. However, the one actual “nay” vote Stern cites, Rep. Mike McMahon, serves in New York, where the filing deadline does not close for quite some time. (And as per yesterday’s bullet, the Working Families Party said they won’t give their line to McMahon either.)

PA-06: The Pennsylvania SEIU, which just endorsed Arlen Specter, also gave their backing to Dem Doug Pike in his primary against Manan Trivedi.

Census: I received my 2010 Census form last night. Have you gotten yours yet?

Congress: Congress.org takes a look at former staffers who now occupy seats of their own on the Hill and notes that their ranks have been increasing since World War II. At least six staffers are running for office this year.

Lulz: Hard to believe, but disgraced and discredited “pollster” Strategic Vision claims to have undertaken a survey of the Georgia governor’s race. Even sadder, a flack for outgoing Gov. Sonny Perdue actually emailed around the “results” to reporters. Still waiting for that lawsuit against Nate Silver.

Teabagging: Virginia Thomas, the wife of none other than Sup. Ct. Justice Clarence Thomas, has formed a new lobbying company to exploit capitalize on teabagger sentiment. The LAT notes:

As a 501(c)(4) nonprofit, Liberty Central can raise unlimited amounts of corporate money and largely avoid disclosing its donors.

Because of a recent Supreme Court decision, Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission, the group may also spend corporate money freely to advocate for or against candidates for office.

Justice Thomas was part of the 5-4 majority in that case.

SSP: We have 287 fans on le Facebook so far. Pretty please take us to 300? I ain’t too proud to beg.

• AR-Sen: That didn’t take long; Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is already hitting the TV airwaves in his freshly-launched primary challenge to Blanche Lincoln. Now, you may be wondering how he’s paying for that, considering that he’s starting almost from scratch. Turns out he’s coming into this with promises of huge financial backing from organized labor; three unions under the AFL-CIO umbrella are committing $3 million to independent expenditures in the race, which in the cheap Arkansas media markets will allow him to get on a solid footing against Lincoln’s $5 mil. That’s on top of $600K that poured in from the netroots (from MoveOn and the PCCC). See what happens when you piss off your base?

Rasmussen also snapped into action, putting out some further Arkansas numbers, and oddly, they aren’t anywhere near as catastrophic for Lincoln as last month. They still don’t have her in salvageable shape, though: Lincoln loses to Rep. John Boozman 48-39 (compared with 54-35 last month), state Sen. Gilbert Baker 45-40 (compared with 52-33 last month), state Sen. Jim Holt 45-38, state Sen. Kim Hendren 43-38, and businessman Curtis Coleman 43-41. This is Rasmussen’s first time testing Bill Halter, and for now, he’s performing about the same or somewhat worse than Lincoln. Halter trails Boozman 52-33, Baker 44-37, Holt 42-38, Hendren 42-35, and Coleman 38-35.

• CA-Sen: DavidNYC’s description of this development pretty much speaks for itself: “The lord taketh away Harold Ford, but may grace us with — I know it’s hard to imagine — an even BIGGER douchebag.” Mickey Kaus, the contrarian, Conservadem blogger, is apparently considering a run for Senate in California, taking out (though not yet filing) the appropriate candidate paperwork. Interestingly, I see no discussion of whether he plans to run in the Democratic primary against Barbara Boxer, or as an indie or a GOPer — not that he’s likely to provide much more than comic relief in any of the three categories.

• GA-Sen: Democrats may be kicking themselves for dropping the recruitment ball this year on a challenger to Johnny Isakson for his first re-election bid to the Senate. Rasmussen found him leading Generic D by a not-overwhelming 49-36 last week, and now PPP finds him with a similar but even less convincing win over Generic D, 46-37. Isakson’s approvals are a rather Richard Burr-ish 36/38. However, as seen in North Carolina, Generic D overperforms Real D: in case AG Thurbert Baker was considering jumping over from the gubernatorial race (where he badly lags ex-Gov. Roy Barnes in the primary), he trails Isakson 49-31. Jim Martin, who performed fairly well in the 2008 Senate election, does a little better, losing 47-35.

• KY-Sen: As Jim Bunning keeps up his Bizzaro-world Mr. Smith Goes to Washington impression (filibustering to cut off Boy Scouts’ dads’ unemployment compensation), he’s drawing the attention of two of his would-be successors. Democratic Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo has called for a rally at Bunning’s Lexington office to protest Bunning’s crazy last stand, while Rand Paul’s campaign in now responding with its own counter-rally in support Bunning’s efforts. (Paul won’t be there himself, and it’s not clear if Mongiardo will either.)

• NY-Sen-B: There’s speculation that Harold Ford Jr.’s decision to abandon his Senate plans may have a lot to do with the likelihood of a Mort Zuckerman run on the Republican side — and that a lot of Ford’s moneybags donors were telling him they were with Zuckerman instead if he got in. Or, maybe Ford just got wind of his poll numbers in today’s Marist poll (pdf), giving him little shot at pulling the upset. In the Dem primary, Ford trailed Kirsten Gillibrand 50-19 (with 3 for Jonathan Tasini). Considering that Ford collapsed from an already-bad 44-27 in late January’s Marist poll as he gained notoriety all last month, that seems like plenty of incentive to get out. Gillibrand trails the unlikely-to-run George Pataki in the general 48-45, but demolishes Zuckerman, 59-26, as well as the already-running Bruce Blakeman, 58-28. In the other Senate race, undeclared candidate Larry Kudlow might want to save his money; Charles Schumer leads Kudlow 69-24.

• OK-Sen: Rasmussen keeps polling everything that’s pollable, and today that includes the Oklahoma Senate race. No Democrat of note has stepped up to challenge Tom Coburn, and that may be just as well, as the Dems’ best possible candidate, the state’s popular, termed-out Democratic Governor  Brad Henry, still finds himself losing a hypothetical battle to Coburn, 52-40.

• TX-Sen: Kay Bailey Hutchison is still insisting that she’s going to resign from the Senate at some point this year, despite the very very very very high likelihood of not winning the Texas gubernatorial primary which looked like hers for the taking a year ago. She still isn’t sure about a date, although it’s pegged to the legislative calendar, as before resigning she plans to, in her words, “stay and fight health care.” PPP’s Tom Jensen sees some interesting possible winners in Hutchison’s fall: Robin Carnahan and Lee Fisher. The scope of Hutchison’s loss tonight may give some insight into just how much this year’s discontent is an anti-Beltway insider, rather than anti-Democratic, bubble. The former, of course, would be a boost to statehouse vets Carnahan and Fisher (ahem, or Jennifer Brunner) as they fight DC hacks Roy Blunt and Rob Portman.

• CA-Gov: Apparently, after having spent months meditating away whatever bad vibes he may have felt about the role thrust upon his shoulders as the only man who can save California, Jerry Brown has emerged from his Fortress of Solitude and officially declared his candidacy for Governor. Unfortunately, while he was away, Ursa and Non have had uncontested months to rampage around the city destroying things… although thanks to Brown’s super-powers of bafflement and misdirection, they’ve gotten bamboozled into slugging it out viciously with each other instead. (Meanwhile, General Zod has already left town for the more interesting Senate race.)

• GA-Gov: Insider Advantage has polls of both primaries in the Georgia gubernatorial race, although no general election head-to-heads. No surprises on either side: on the Dem side, Roy Barnes is cruising at 36, followed by Thurbert Baker at 7, DuBose Porter at 3, and David Poythress at 2. On the GOP side, John Oxendine leads at 27, followed by Karen Handel at 13, Nathan Deal at 9, Eric Johnson at 7, and Other at 8. While Nathan Deal’s resignation is being spun as allowing him to focus full-time on his seemingly tractionless bid, there’s a darker side to it, too: TPM reports on how he was getting out one step ahead of the Ethics Committee, which was starting to look into allegations of Deal pressuring state officials to intervene on behalf of an auto inspection business that Deal co-owns. With Deal out of the House, the case is closed, at least at the federal level.

• MI-Gov: May the Schwarz be with us! It may be the only way we can salvage the Michigan gubernatorial race. Joe Schwarz, the ticked-off moderate ex-Rep. from MI-07 (who got teabagged by Tim Walberg in a GOP primary before getting teabagged was fashionable), is launching an exploratory committee for a gubernatorial run as an independent. This could be a big break for Dems in the gubernatorial race — especially if obnoxious Rep. Peter Hoekstra is the GOP nominee, as Schwarz seems poised to soak up a fair number of moderate votes unenthused by Hoekstra’s right-wing grandstanding. Schwarz seems more likely to be Chris Daggett than Jesse Ventura, though, and if things get really scrambled — for instance, an all-centrist three-way between Andy Dillon, Rick Snyder, and Schwarz — he could potentially harm the Dems as much as the GOP.

• NY-Gov (pdf): Marist also takes a look at the Governor’s race. Seeing as how this is their first poll after David Paterson’s announcement that he wouldn’t run for re-election, it’s also the first poll in a long time to contain any good news for Paterson: only 28% of respondents want him to resign, as opposed to 66% who say finish his term. And only 18% think Paterson has done anything illegal, as opposed to a mere 40% who think he merely did something unethical, not illegal. (The bad news: his approval is down to 23/71, which has to be a new low.) With the participants in November’s election now pretty much locked in, they find AG Andrew Cuomo beating ex-Rep. Rick Lazio 64-28. Cuomo’s halo may be shining even brighter as his office begins investigating Paterson; Cuomo’s approval is 67/28.

• RI-Gov: One more Rasmussen poll to add to the pile, and they’re seeing more or less what Brown Univ. saw last week, regarding the Rhode Island gubernatorial race. Independent ex-Sen. Lincoln Chafee is definitely in the driver’s seat, although Dem state Treasurer Frank Caprio polls better against him than does AG Patrick Lynch. Only difference here: Rasmussen sees Republican John Robitaille performing much better, although he’s still deep in third place. Chafee wins the Caprio race 37-27-19, while he wins the Lynch race 38-24-22.

• GA-07: One of the guys considered a heavyweight in the GOP field in this newly-opened-up seat in the R+16 7th has decided against a run. State Sen. David Shafer announced he’ll take a pass. Fellow state Sen. Don Balfour is already in the running, with state Rep. Clay Cox and Gwinnett Co. Commissioner Mike Beaudreau also expected to join him soon.

• MA-10: Maybe I spoke too soon in thinking that Joe Kennedy III’s decision not to run next year was an indication of another term of William Delahunt. It turns out Delahunt has been on a bit of a grotesque spending spree, burning through $560K of his campaign cash last year (including campaign staff salaries for a number of family members). This cuts his war chest in half, and he only raised $42K last year — all actions of a man eyeing the exits. If Delahunt needs something to do with his money, I can think of a certain “DCCC” that could really use help right now, probably much more so than his family members. (H/t Adam B.)

• MI-03: State Sen. Bill Hardiman (termed-out from his current job) announced that he’ll run for the open seat in the 3rd, left behind by retiring Vern Ehlers. Hardiman faces state Rep. Justin Amash, already coronated as frontrunner by western Michigan GOP power brokers Dick and Betsy DeVos. If the former Kentwood mayor survives his primary, he’s on his way to returning the Republicans back to having at least one African-American in Congress.

• NY-St. Sen.: Give Hiram Monserrate credit for persistence, I guess. Having become the first sitting New York state Senator to get expelled in decades after an assault conviction, Monserrate promptly picked himself up, dusted himself off, and began running in the special election to replace himself. This time, Monserrate is running as an independent, against Democratic Assemblyman Jose Peralta. Peralta has the advantage of the support of the entire Democratic establishment, but Monserrate has one thing on his side: name recognition (not necessarily for good PR, but still…).

• Ads: 501(c)(4) League of American Voters is running anti-health care reform TV ads against a whole slew of swing-district Democrats, hoping to sway a few wobblies in the run-up to the next House vote: Mike Arcuri, Dan Maffei, Chris Carney, Paul Kanjorski, Kathy Dahlkemper, Baron Hill, Steve Kagen, Alan Mollohan, Nick Rahall, Tom Perriello, Mark Schauer, Zach Space, and Harry Teague.

• Special elections: And you thought the Texas primary was all that was on tap tonight? No, there are two special elections for state Houses, both of which look pretty competitive. The Dems are trying to hold a seat in Virginia in HD-41 in a swingy part of Fairfax County, recently vacated by Dave Marsden’s promotion to the state Senate. The Democratic candidate, Eileen Filler-Corn, may have the edge, in that she has a 3-to-1 fundraising edge over Kerry Bolognese, and the district went for Obama with 57%. On the other hand, Bolognese came within 50-49 of Marsden last fall, and Bob McDonnell won the district with 55%. (Both candidates, unappealingly enough, are lobbyists by day.) The GOP has the edge in the House of Delegates, 59-38-2. And in Connecticut, Democrats are gunning for a pickup in the Stratford-based HD-120, which was vacated by Republican John Harkins becoming Stratford mayor. Democrat Janice Anderson lost against Republican state Sen. Dan Debicella in 2008, although she beat Debicella in the portion of that district that comprises the 120th. She faces off against GOPer Laura Hoydick; the stakes are a little lower here, as the Dems control the state House 114-36.