Tag: Polls

Dan Jones & Associates for Deseret News/KSL-TV (1/12-13, adults, 11/19-23 in parens):

Peter Corroon (D): 35 (32)

Gary Herbert (R-inc): 48 (56)

(MoE: ±5%)

In a state with a pretty limited Democratic bench, the recent entry of Peter Corroon in the gubernatorial race is a huge boon for Utah Democrats. Corroon isn’t just another sacrificial lamb that Utah Dems have become accustomed to running against entrenched incumbents — he’s the mayor of Salt Lake County, which is home to more than a third of the state’s population. While it goes without saying that this will be a challenging race, Corroon at least gives Democrats a fighting chance here, especially if some of the same budgetary problems facing many of the other beleaguered governors begin to take a toll on the freshly-minted Gov. Gary Hebert. SSP is changing its rating of this race from the sub-competitive Races to Watch to the more competitive category of Likely Republican.

RaceTracker Wiki: UT-Gov

In the battle of the Steves, two may enter, but only one may leave.

SurveyUSA for Firedoglake (1/12-14, likely voters):

Steve Driehaus (D-inc): 39

Steve Chabot (R): 56

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.1%)

I don’t think you need me to tell you that this is “rough”. Ohio’s 1st District has been a tough nut to crack for Democrats, usually leaning ever so slightly to the GOP. Al Gore lost the district by 46-51 in 2000, and John Kerry came up two points short four years later. Obama finally busted the dam open, winning the CD by a remarkable 55-44 spread. Now, if this poll is to be believed (and I can believe it), Obama has a 42-55 approval rating among likely voters in the district.

Rough.

RaceTracker Wiki: OH-01

Marist (pdf): (1/13-14, registered voters, 11/16-17 in parentheses)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 43

Harold Ford Jr. (D): 24

Undecided: 33

(MoE: ±5%)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 45 (45)

George Pataki (R): 42 (47)

Undecided: 13 (8)

Harold Ford Jr. (D): 36

George Pataki (R): 42

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±3.5%)

With the once-fanciful idea of Tennessee’s Harold Ford Jr. running for the Senate in New York seeming a little closer to reality with each week, Marist decided to poll the question. (This comes despite various Democratic bigwigs trying to warn Ford off — this time, it was fellow centrist Martin Frost‘s turn.) Marist finds that Kirsten Gillibrand has a large edge over Ford in the Democratic primary, although with a substantial number of unknowns, suggesting that Gillibrand doesn’t have things locked down and that people don’t really know what to make of Ford yet (if they’ve even heard of him, which I suspect most New Yorkers haven’t).

In the general, they find that Gillibrand has improved her position against Republican ex-Gov. George Pataki slightly over the last few months, while Ford loses by 6 (although, again, that may have to do with Ford not being well-known). Also, there’s very low likelihood of Pataki running; while he hasn’t ruled it out, his actions lately have pointed more toward a dark horse run for the Presidency. In fact, another Republican is tired of waiting, and went ahead and declared his candidacy: Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman. Given the GOP’s recruitment woes in this race, he may be the best they can put forward.

What I’d like to see, though (and I’m a little disappointed Marist didn’t poll on the question) is how Ford would fare as an independent candidate a general election matchup against Gillibrand. To me, this seems like the only way he seems like he’d ever actually get anywhere in New York, by trying, a la Joe Lieberman 2006, to grab the center and most of the right with a marginal Republican having little effect in a general election. Closed primaries in New York prevent him from taking advantage of GOPers and right-leaning indies, but the general election doesn’t have that problem. Taegan Goddard, in particular, has been wondering out loud about this angle, and he’s saying today that Ford didn’t completely shoot down the idea (albeit in a statement saying he would be a Democrat but loaded with weasel words):

I’m a proud Democrat, and I think I’m going to remain that. I think Democrats are looking for a stand-up, independent guy to represent them in this race… So, in that sense, I would run as an independent.

RaceTracker Wiki: NY-Sen-B

• MA-Sen: With last night’s Suffolk poll, there really can’t be any doubt any more that the Massachusetts Senate race qualifies as a “Toss Up,” so we’re changing our rating to reflect that. There’s still room for skepticism on whether Scott Brown can in fact pull it out, given not only the difficulty of pinning down a likely voter universe in a rapidly-fluctuating special election, but also the Democrats’ structural advantages on the ground in the Bay State. (The Democrats have the advantage of labor and local machines long-skilled at rousting out voters and getting them to the polls, while it’s questionable whether the Republicans have, given their long neglect of the state, any ground troops to deploy here, or even up-to-date, refined voter databases.) Nevertheless, given what can actually be quantified, right now the polls balance out to more or less a tie, and that’s how we have to treat the race.

The breaking news du jour is that Barack Obama has finally agreed to head up to Massachusetts and stump for Martha Coakley on Sunday. Also, the Coakley campaign is rolling out a second ad for the weekend, to go with their ad showcasing the Vicki Kennedy endorsement; they’re also running a populist-themed ad on Wall Street regulation (specifically, the rather narrow issue of the proposed bonus tax on banks). The ad deluge is being bolstered a League of Conservation Voters ad buy for $350K; on the third-party front, that’s being countered by a pro-Brown ad buy for $500K from Americans for Job Security.

• CA-Sen: Yesterday I was musing about whether ex-Rep. Tom Campbell’s entry into the GOP Senate primary hurt Carly Fiorina or Chuck DeVore more, and we already seem to have an answer. The Campbell camp is touting an internal poll showing them with a sizable lead over both Fiorina and DeVore in the primary: Campbell is at 31, with Fiorina at 15 and DeVore at 12. The few polls of the primary so far have shown Fiorina and DeVore deadlocked in the 20s, so maybe it’s safe to say that Campbell hurts them each equally.

• FL-Sen: Which of these is not like the other? There’s a new multi-candidate GOP fundraising PAC called the U.S. Senate Victory Committee, which benefits seven different Republicans: Kelly Ayotte, Roy Blunt, Jane Norton, Rob Portman, Rob Simmons, Pat Toomey… and Marco Rubio? Six establishment candidates, and one insurgent. Or is Rubio the new establishment?

• PPP (pdf): PPP looks all the way to 2012 as part of their wide-ranging Nevada survey, and finds that John Ensign may weather his whole giving-a-patronage-job-to-the-cuckolded-husband-of-his-mistress thing, if he runs again. Ensign trails Las Vegas mayor (but probable 2010 gubernatorial candidate) only Oscar Goodman 43-41, but leads Rep. Shelly Berkley 49-40 and SoS Ross Miller 47-36. Of course, Berkley and Miller aren’t that well-known yet and would presumably gain ground in an active 2012 race, but again, more food for thought on the idea that Republicans really don’t get the vapors over sex scandals after all, so long as they’re perpetrated by Republicans.

• MN-Gov: The St. Paul Pioneer Press is out with a poll of Minnesota voters (by a pollster I’ve never heard of, Decision Resources Ltd.). The poll seemed most focused on the question of whether there should be public funding of the new Vikings stadium, but it did throw in (almost as an afterthought) something we haven’t seen before: general election head-to-heads in the Governor’s race. The numbers are pretty encouraging for the Democrats: ex-Sen. Mark Dayton leads ex-Sen. Norm Coleman 41-31, and state Rep. Marty Seifert (who, assuming Coleman doesn’t get in, is the likeliest GOP nominee) 41-25. State House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher beats Coleman 33-31, and Pat Anderson (who dropped out of the race this week) 33-23. There weren’t any numbers for Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak, another strong contender for the Dem nod. And yes, if you’re wondering, this does take into account the potential spoiler role of Minnesota’s Independence Party; IP candidates account for 11 to 13 percent of the vote in each of these trial heats. (H/t alphaaqua.)

• NH-Gov: One other gubernatorial poll has good news for Democrats, and it even comes from Rasmussen. They find incumbent Gov. John Lynch in safe position with 58/38 approvals and, against his no-name opponents, leading social conservative activist Karen Testerman 53-30 and businessman Jack Kimball 51-32.

• OH-Gov: Who knew that John Kasich had the power to transcend the boundaries of space and time? In an effort to court the GOP’s restive base, Kasich said “I think I was in the Tea Party before there was a Tea Party.”

• WY-Gov: One more big-name Republican (by Wyoming’s small standards) is getting into the gubernatorial race, banking on the assumption that incumbent Dem Dave Freudenthal won’t jump through the legal hoops necessary to run for a third term. Auditor Rita Meyer is getting into the race, where potential GOP primary rivals include former US Attorney Matt Mead and state House speaker Colin Simpson.

• AL-05: Rep. Parker Griffith is showing his true colors. The party-switcher has been turning away requests for refunds of contributions that don’t meet the requirements buried in the fine print: he says he can’t refund donations for the 2008 cycle, only the 2010 cycle, because the 2008 contributions were spent long ago.

• AR-02: Rep. Vic Snyder is in pretty dire shape, if a new poll from SurveyUSA is to be believed: he trails Republican candidate and former US Attorney Tim Griffin by a 56-39 margin. You may want to take this poll with a grain of salt, as it was paid for by Firedoglake, who seem to have an axe to grind in the health care reform debate, and the Snyder numbers seem to be less the main point than engaging in strangely-right-wing-sounding message-testing. The good news is that, even after a variety of anti-HCR arguments have been offered (and Nate Silver does a fine job of picking apart the survey), Snyder doesn’t fare much worse (at 58-35); the bad news, though, is that the 56-39 topline question was asked before any of the litany of anti-HCR talking points, suggesting that, HCR or no, we have a major problem in Arkansas.

• AZ-03: Despite Jon Hulburd’s surprising cash haul, he may have bigger company in the Democratic primary to replace recently-retired Republican Rep. John Shadegg. Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon is the subject of speculation; he had briefly considered a 2008 run against Shadegg before ruling it out, saying his post-mayoral future would be in the private sector, but all eyes are on what he does now. (Gordon lives slightly outside the district’s boundaries.) On the GOP side, there’s no clear frontrunner at all. State Rep. Sam Crump has already said he’s running. Possible other candidates include state Treasurer Dean Martin (who would have to drop down from the gubernatorial bid he just launched this week), state Sens. Pamela Gorman and Jim Waring, Phoenix city councilor Peggy Neely, former ASU football star Andrew Walter, and, in a shocker, the co-founder of Taser International Inc., Tom Smith. Former state House speaker Jim Weiers has taken himself out of the running.

• NC-11: Businessman Jeff Miller has reversed course and will run against Democratic Blue Dog Rep. Heath Shuler in the 11th. Miller had been recruited to run, but decided against it; he’ll have to face a primary against Hendersonville mayor Greg Newman, who got in after Miller initially declined.

• OH-15: The Ohio GOP is still searching for an Auditor candidate after Mary Taylor decided to run for Lt. Governor instead of re-election. Former state Sen. Steve Stivers has been asked to run for Auditor, but made clear he’ll be staying in the race in the 15th (where he might actually have better odds, considering how close he came to Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy last time).

Suffolk University (1/11-13, likely voters, 11/4-8 in parens):

Martha Coakley (D): 46 (58)

Scott Brown (R): 50 (27)

Joseph L. Kennedy (I): 3 (-)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Just to keep you up to speed, this is the second poll we’ve seen of Massachusetts today. Earlier, R2K released a survey showing Coakley up by eight points. We’ve also heard word of a new Dem internal poll showing Coakley up by five.

Amazingly, we may have to stay up way past our bedtimes next Tuesday in order to find out the fate of Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat.

Update: A few more tidbits from the poll: Brown enjoys a 57-19 favorable rating, compared to Coakley’s 49-41. A full 17% of Dems abandon ship in favor of Brown, while 64% of voters still thinking that Coakley will win. (Perhaps the reporting of polls like this one may make a dent in that number.) The poll also shows, unlike some other recent surveys, a majority of voters opposed to health care reform, although perhaps the poll’s wording (“the proposed near universal healthcare law”) may have something to do with that.

Later Update: As noted in the comments, Suffolk is determining likely voters as those who “knew the date of Tuesday’s election”. It’s possible that this is producing an unusually tight likely voter screen in Scott Brown’s favor, but I wouldn’t take that as an excuse to breathe easy.

Memo Update: The full polling memo is available here (pdf).

Quinnipiac (1/8-12, likely voters, no trend lines):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 62

Rob Simmons (R): 27

Undecided: 10

Richard Blumenthal (D): 64

Linda McMahon (R): 23

Undecided: 11

Richard Blumenthal (D): 66

Peter Schiff (R): 19

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±2.6%)

When longtime Connecticut AG Richard Blumenthal pulled the trigger on the race to replace retiring Sen. Chris Dodd, we immediately changed our rating of this race from Tossup to Lean D. (Before Dodd’s decision to drop out, we had already agreed in private to shift the race to Lean R, but hadn’t gotten around to making a formal change.) Before now, we’ve only had a couple of pollsters to base that rating on: PPP gave Blumenthal 30-point leads over Simmons and McMahon, and Rasmussen pegged the race at a mildly closer but still uncompetitive 20+ point spread for Team Blue. Adding Quinnipiac to the mix paints an even unfriendlier picture for the Republicans, with Blumenthal up anywhere between 35 and a comical 47 points on the GOP field.

There’s little doubt that this poll represents a high water mark for Blumenthal. His campaign has just begun, and he’s still experiencing a degree of euphoria from many Nutmeggers who are glad to have the chance to vote for a friendly name in the place of the beleaguered Dodd. As it stands now, Blumenthal enjoys a monstrous 74-13 favorable rating, which includes a 62-29 rating from Republicans and 74-15 from independents. He’s clearly at the height of his non-partisan appeal following his years of goodwill built up by his service as AG. A general election campaign will bring those numbers back down to earth a bit (unlike, say, Mark Warner’s free pass in 2008), but he would have to make more than one monumental mistake in order to let this race drift back to the competitive column. As long as Blumenthal puts in the time (see: Coakley, Martha) and doesn’t hire a complete bozo for a campaign manager, the GOP field will be grasping at straws here. SSP now rates this race as Likely Democratic.

Oh, and in case you’re curious, Qunnipiac also polled the primaries: Blumenthal leads little-known Democrat Merrick Alpert by 82-4 (Alpert got as much as 22% against Dodd in Q’s previous poll), and Simmons leads McMahon 37-27, compared to the 28-17 spread from November.

RaceTracker Wiki: CT-Sen

Public Policy Polling (1/11-12, registered voters, no trend lines):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 42

Danny Tarkanian (R): 50

Undecided: 8

Harry Reid (D-inc): 41

Sue Lowden (R): 51

Undecided: 8

Shelly Berkley (D): 39

Danny Tarkanian (R): 47

Undecided: 14

Shelly Berkley (D): 38

Sue Lowden (R): 46

Undecided: 17

Oscar Goodman (D): 41

Danny Tarkanian (R): 41

Undecided: 18

Oscar Goodman (D): 42

Sue Lowden (R): 40

Undecided: 18

Ross Miller (D): 34

Danny Tarkanian (R): 45

Undecided: 22

Ross Miller (D): 34

Sue Lowden (R): 44

Undecided: 23

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Pretty ugly stuff, all around. For the Harry Reid match-ups, PPP is basically on the same page as Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon. We’ve thought long and hard about this decision, but the choice, in the end, is unavoidable: this race is no longer a tossup. Much like Chris Dodd, Reid has been spending a significant amount of money on his re-election already, and he has no positive results to show for it. Voters know Harry Reid, and they just don’t like him: his job performance rating is at a disastrous 36-58.

In our conversations with DC Democrats, they have always stressed that Harry Reid has one big advantage over his Republican opponents: he’ll have an enormous amount of money at his disposal to nuke his competition. While it’s true that Reid will have all the resources he needs (and then some), money won’t buy him love, and the usual “But the Republicans are worse!” argument (while also true) will be more likely to fall on deaf ears in races like this one where Reid is vulnerable to voter ire over Senatorial process. I also expect that, once the GOP primary is settled out, enough resources will flow to the Republican nominee so that he or she will be able to make their case against Reid. This race started off bad, and the trend is only getting worse — gaffes like Reid’s leaked “Negro” comment the other day only serve as exclamation points on how much difficulty the Majority Leader is facing. SSP is moving our rating of this race from Tossup to Lean Republican.

Also disturbing is the fact that Reid’s would-be Democratic successors, 1st CD Rep. Shelly Berkley, Secretary of State Ross Miller, and Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman (who is actually now an Independent, but whatever), are also in tough races against Lowden and Tarkanian.

At this point, though, I would have to take any of the above options over Reid. The silver lining here is that Berkley and Miller are, amazingly enough, somehow just as (or more!) unknown than Lowden and Tarkanian. Berkley and Miller are met with 46% and 66% “Not Sure” opinion ratings, respectively, while Lowden gets 49% and Tarkanian 43%. On the flip side, a Reid retirement could also lead to the candidacy of 2nd CD Rep. Dean Heller, who could prove to be the most formidable opponent the GOP could run.

RaceTracker Wiki: NV-Sen

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (1/11-13, likely voters, no trendlines):

Heidi Heitkamp (D): 34

John Hoeven (R): 55

Undecided: 11

Ed Schultz (D): 32

John Hoeven (R): 56

Undecided: 12

Jasper Schneider (D): 32

John Hoeven (R): 56

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4%)

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 46

Kevin Cramer (R): 24

Undecided: 30

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 47

Duane Sand (R): 22

Undecided: 31

(MoE: ±4%)

Republican Gov. John Hoeven seems to have an even clearer path to the Senate than he did against Byron Dorgan, now that it’s an open seat. He posts 20-point-plus leads against all of his opposition, including the likeliest Democrat to get the nod: former AG and 2000 gubernatorial candidate Heidi Heitkamp. We’re looking at a strongly Republican likely electorate here (with Barack Obama at 41/54 approval, and the Republican Party faring much better as a party than the Democrats (although still in crappy position, too): 39/53 for the GOP vs. 25/61 for the Dems). That means that performance is pretty much equal for all Dems, whether they’re well-known (Ed Schultz) or up-and-coming but unknown (North Dakota Rural Development Director Jasper Schneider). With that in mind, Swing State Project is moving this race to “Likely Republican.”

Hoeven may still be in for a bumpy ride, though, thanks to the same thing facing fellow level-headed midwestern Governor (and ‘stache wearer) Terry Branstad: bubbling-over anger on the teabagging right and mistrust of his establishment, insufficiently tax-averse ways. While the Tea Partiers don’t seem to have a particular primary opponent in mind, they’re adamant that Hoeven won’t be getting a free pass through the primary.

Democratic at-large Rep. Earl Pomeroy seems to have had the right idea in staying where he is, rather than going for the promotion. He’s looking fairly secure against the GOP opposition (although below the symbolic 50% mark), leading Public Service Commissioner Kevin Cramer (a statewide official, but one who’s lost twice to Pomeroy previously, and just announced today that he’s going back for a third try) and his 2008 opponent (and current Senate candidate, although he might want to drop down to get out of Hoeven’s way) Duane Sand by similar 20-point-plus margins. Insurance salesman Paul Schaffner is also in the GOP primary, and state Rep. Rick Berg and Fargo city commissioner Dave Piepkorn are also weighing the race.

RaceTracker Wiki: ND-Sen | ND-AL

Research 2000 for Blue Mass Group (1/12-13, likely voters, no trendlines):

Martha Coakley (D): 49

Scott Brown (R): 41

Joe Kennedy (L): 5

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4%)

Research 2000 checks in with its first poll of the Massachusetts Senate race (although the poll was commissioned by local blog Blue Mass Group, rather than the big orange mothership, not that that should affect the numbers). This is also the first poll taken after Monday’s televised debate. They find an eight-point lead for Coakley, obviously much better than the most recent Rasmussen and PPP polls, though still hardly a slam dunk (rather concerning, for instance, is that the Libertarian candidate, Joe Kennedy [no relation to the dynasty], is polling at 5% — as we saw in New Jersey, third party candidates like that tend to fall off a bit in the final equation, and Libertarian votes seem likelier to gravitate toward Brown).

In the crosstabs, Brown leads 49-36 among independents, which is a much smaller edge than PPP saw. Coakley is leading only 46-45 among whites and is trailing Brown 50-41 in the state’s southeast; her lead seems based primarily on non-whites (including an 86-4 lead among blacks) and the Boston area (where she leads 53-37). (Discussion also underway in conspiracy‘s diary.)

Brown is trying to walk a tightrope here, as he’s trying to attract enough support from nationwide tea-party types to attract their dollars, while still keeping them at arms’ length enough to keep the votes of local moderates. For instance, he’s been avoiding asking the potentially polarizing endorsement of Sarah Palin (and she’s been smart enough to not offer it without having been asked). However, he’s been saying he’s not familiar with the Tea Party movement… a petard on which he’s currently being hoisted, as video and photos of him addressing local Tea Party gathering have surfaced (including from his own Flickr account).

Meanwhile, Coakley received the Boston Globe‘s endorsement (although that shouldn’t be any more of a surprise than Brown getting the Herald’s endorsement). One other story getting play today is the possibility that it may take weeks to certify the winner of the election, especially if it’s close (but even if it’s not, as town clerks need to wait at least 10 days for absentee ballots to arrive before certifying their town-level results). Naturally, the right is assuming this is a ploy to give the Democrats enough time to wrap up health care reform before Brown arrives on his white horse to kill it.

UPDATE: I know I’ve seen lots of talk in the comments that the deal-sealer should be Vicki Kennedy cutting a TV ad on Martha Coakley’s behalf, and having that be the campaign’s closing argument over the weekend. Via Chuck Todd, it sounds like that’s exactly what they’re doing. Leaving nothing to chance, the DNC is also reportedly sinking another $150K, but more importantly, a lot more manpower on the ground, into the race.

RaceTracker Wiki: MA-Sen

The incredibly prolific Rasmussen Reports has touched down in three states today, so let’s look at what they have for us in one post.

NH-Sen (1/12, likely voters, 9/14 in parens):

Paul Hodes (D): 40 (38)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 49 (46)

Other: 3 (5)

Not Sure: 8 (12)

Paul Hodes (D): 45

Ovide Lamontagne (R): 38

Other: 6

Not Sure: 11

Paul Hodes (D): 43

Bill Binnie (R): 37

Other: 5

Not Sure: 15

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NV-Sen (1/11, likely voters, 12/9 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 36 (43)

Sue Lowden (R): 48 (49)

Other: 8 (6)

Undecided: 7 (3)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 36 (43)

Danny Tarkanian (R): 50 (49)

Other: 5 (6)

Undecided: 9 (2)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (43)

Sharron Angle (R): 44 (47)

Other: 10 (7)

Undecided: 7 (3)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MN-Gov (1/11, likely voters, 11/10 in parens):

R.T. Rybak (D): 25 (30)

Mark Dayton (D): 34 (30)

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D): 12 (8)

Matt Entenza (D): 5 (6)

Other: 10 (5)

Not Sure: 13 (20)

(MoE: ±5%)

Norm Coleman (R): 52 (50)

Marty Seifert (R): 9 (11)

Tom Emmer (R): 9 (1)

Pat Anderson (R): 5

Other: 7 (7)

Not Sure: 18 (26)

(MoE: ±6%)

Not a lot of surprises here — Reid is tanking, and Rasmussen picked the best possible time to show how damaged he is. The Minnesota Governor’s race is tilted in the direction of the ex-Senators, but I find it hard to imagine Dayton proving to be a formidable candidate after the DFL convention.

I’m almost mildly surprised that Rasmussen isn’t showing a better result for insurgent candidates Lamontagne and Binnie in the New Hampshire Senate race, but I suppose that neither of of those guys have established themselves in the public consciousness to a great degree yet. What I’m really interested in seeing is how Ayotte holds up in a GOP primary.