Tag: 2012 House Open Seat Watch

• AZ-Sen: Outgoing Sen. Jon Kyl says he isn’t endorsing a successor – just yet. He wants to see how the field develops first.

• IN-Sen: Look who else isn’t endorsing – the forgotten man, Sen. Dan Coats, says he isn’t taking sides in the looming GOP primary battle, not for Lugar or anyone else. Way to stick by your colleagues, huh? I guess maybe Coats is thinking about 2016, when I’d be willing to bet dollars-to-donuts he’ll get teabagged himself (if he doesn’t hang up his spurs before then, something I’d also entertain action on).

Meanwhile, Mourdock is concerned about the possible entry of teabagging state Sen. Mike Delph, who Treasurer (and recently-announced candidate) Richard Mourdock says will split the vote with him if he runs. Delph previously issued the usual state legislator’s incantation, saying he’d wait until the legislative sessions concludes at the end of April before deciding on a run.

• NE-Sen: Gotta say this about Don Stenberg: He has no fear of losing. He’s making his fourth try for senate, having failed on his three previous attempts. Still, despite almost achieving perennial candidate status, he did have a triumphant return to statewide office last year, winning the Treasurer race by a landslide. And he served as state AG for over a decade starting in 1991, so it’s not like he can’t win a race. (Attentive law students might also remember him from the caption in Stenberg v. Carhart, the Supreme Court case about so-called “partial-birth abortion.”) In any event, Stenberg is looking to present himself as the far-right alternative to AG and not-exactly-firmly-entrenched frontrunner Jon Bruning.

• TX-Sen: Either Tom Leppert just scored a sweet season pass to Six Flags Hurricane Harbor, or he’s going to dive into the crowded GOP senate race. Though he has four months to go, he’s resigning (effective Friday) from his current position as mayor of Dallas, so it’s gotta be one of those two. Who wants to give me ten-to-one on Hurricane Harbor?

Maybe that’s not a bad idea, actually, since the University of Texas (on behalf of the Texas Tribune) didn’t even test Leppert’s name in their new poll (PDF) of the GOP primary. It’s not especially fascinating, though, since “I dunno” leads the way at 52%, LG David Dewhurst (who hasn’t yet announced) is at 27%, and no one else is above 5%. They also looked at a hypothetical Dem primary, between a bunch of guys who aren’t running and no one knows. Click through the link if you insist.

• UT-Sen: What to do if you’re a pollster in Utah? You’ve got a major potential teabagging on your hands, but it’s very likely to be decided at a party convention, not in a normal primary. So what do you do? You poll it anyway! I can’t blame the folks at UtahPolicy.com – it’s not like you can really poll convention-goers. And there is worthwhile information you can learn from these sorts of things.

Anyhow, in a hypothetical primary, Sen. Orrin Hatch is tied with Rep. Jason Chaffetz at 42 apiece. This says to me that GOP state delegates are likely to be even more anti-Hatch than Republican voters at large, so the incumbent is probably in very serious trouble indeed. I’m not convinced Chaffetz will make the race, though – in response to this poll, he noted that he’s already a subcommittee chair in just his second term, and that it would be “pretty hard to walk away” from his newfound influence in the House majority. But certainly someone will step up.

• NY-26: I’ve been dismissive of him so far, and I remain skeptical, but David Bellavia is at least showing that can-do spirit. The former Army staff sergeant and Iraq war veteran filed paperwork with the FEC to form an exploratory committee, and his spokesman pointed to Republican nominee Jane Corwin’s support for abortion rights (at least “during the first trimester,” which, guys, hasn’t been the legal framework for twenty years). It’ll be interesting to see if a teabagger candidacy can use a social issue likes this as its hook. Anyhow, if he doesn’t score an existing third-party line, Bellavia will need 3,500 valid signatures to get on the ballot as an independent, which is a lot harder than it sounds.

• TX-15: Felicia Sonmez runs down the House members with the highest absentee rates so far – several have missed in the range of 30% of votes in the early going of the 112th Congress. But all of them have obvious excuses (mostly bereavement and health-related), except for one: Ruben Hinojosa, who has skipped over 40% of roll calls. His spokesman didn’t respond to The Fix, but I’m really curious to know what’s going on here. Could retirement be looming?

• DCCC: The D-Trip is doing a wave of robocalls, along with some web ads and emails, into fifty Republican districts. The Hill doesn’t seem to have (or at least, have published) the entire list, and NWOTSOTB. (That’s “No Word On The Size Of The Buy,” in case you haven’t seen that one before. Remember it, because candidates and organizations frequently launch tiny paid media campaigns with the hopes of garnering free press. If you don’t see information about how much a media buy actually costs, then odds are it falls into this category. Don’t let yourself get played, and always be looking for the size of the buy.)

• Census: Here’s a new tidbit from the Census Bureau: 760 of the nation’s 3,000+ counties are experiencing “natural decrease:” deaths are outweighing births. Although most of these counties are rural counties, it’s not purely a red state phenomenon; at the state level, four states (all of which, you might notice, have not only older-than-average populations but also low Hispanic populations) also fall into this category: West Virginia, Vermont, Pennsylvania, and Maine. (C)

• AZ-Sen: Former GOP Rep. Matt Salmon says he’s considering getting into the senate race. Salmon held current candidate Jeff Flake’s seat in the House before losing the 2002 gubernatorial race against now-DHS chief Janet Napolitano. Speaking of Flake, he was one of only three House Republicans to vote against the GOP-backed spending bill which contained $60 billion in cuts. Teabagger eyebrows were raised, but Flake claims he voted against it from the right, saying it didn’t go far enough.

• MA-Sen: Speaking of teabaggers, Scott Brown, when directly asked if he was one (okay, he was asked if he was a “tea partier”), said “No, I’m a Republican from Massachusetts”(and I drive a truck!). I maintain that a tea-fueled primary challenge to Brown is still possible.

• MO-Sen, MO-02: GOP Rep. Jo Ann Emerson says she won’t try to challenge Sen. Claire McCaskill. Dave Catanese thinks that Emerson’s “moderate profile” would have made it hard for her to win a primary. Also, former MO GOP chair Ann Wagner says she’s still considering the race – but, interestingly, says she also might primary Rep. Todd Akin in MO-02.

• NV-Sen, NV-02: Major bummer, sports fans: Sharron Angle says she is NOT running for president, repeat NOT running for president! Hopefully, though, this means she’ll go for the senate again, or possibly the 2nd CD.

• RI-Sen: Cranston Mayor Allan Fung says he won’t seek the GOP nomination to challenge Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, citing the huge fundraising hurdles he’d face.

• VA-Sen: Attorney David McCormick becomes the latest Some Dude to enter the GOP nomination battle for Virginia’s open senate seat.

• WI-Gov: By now you may have already gotten wind of the AFL-CIO poll conducted by GQR on the battle in Wisconsin. It was actually two separate polls taken a few days apart, combined into one. The topline numbers for Gov. Scott Walker don’t look good – 51% job disapproval, and underwater unfavorables to the tune of a 39-49 spread.

• CA-36: The Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC) released a poll on the Dem primary in the race to succeed soon-to-resign Rep. Jane Harman. The numbers, from PPP, show SoS Debra Bowen leading LA city councilor Janice Hahn 33-29, and just 21-20 without leaners. Obviously there are still tons of undecideds.

Hahn also released a poll of her own, taken by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates. She refused to release toplines, claiming only that she has a “five-point lead.” Misleadingly, her poll memo says that “Hahn’s lead is larger than the survey’s margin of error.” The MoE is ±4.9%, so technically, yes, her lead is literally “larger” than the MoE, but it’s not “outside the MoE,” which is the metric people are usually concerned with. The press release accompanying the memo also repeats an amusingly idiotic line of attack on PPP, saying the PCCC survey “is not reliable given the fact that it was conducted by a robo call, rather than by an actual researcher.”

One other detail: Hahn also just picked up the endorsement of new state Sen. Ted Lieu, who won a special election last week. Lieu’s name had briefly surfaced as a possibility for the CA-36 race, too.

• CA-41: GOP Rep. Jerry Lewis, seventy-six years old and skipped over for key leadership roles after the GOP takeover of the House, won’t say yet whether he’ll seek an 18th term. Redistricting may play a big role here, as Lewis won’t benefit from another incumbent protection plan, thanks to the new independent redistricting commission CA voters approved last fall.

• NY-14: Biden alert! The VPOTUS is in New York City today, doing a fundraiser to benefit both Rep. Carolyn Maloney and the DNC. A little surprised to see Maloney benefitting from this largesse, since Reshma Saujani said she won’t try to primary Maloney again this cycle. (Then again, Reshma’s already flip-flopped on that, so maybe she’ll change her mind yet again.) I suppose it’s possible that this district’s lines will change enough to offer the possibility of a different primary challenger emerging, so this could be a defensive maneuver. Or it could just be a reward to a loyal backer.

• NY-24: Did Rep. Richard Hanna plagiarize a Cato Institute paper for an op-ed of his own in the Syracuse Post-Standard? Check it out and decide for yourself.

• NY-26: Carl Paladino, already on record as backing Jane Corwin’s candidacy before she was tapped as the nominee, officially (re-)endorsed her. Some teabagger, Lenny Roberto, also endorsed Corwin, but there’s always People’s Front of Judean/Judean Popular Front splits between these guys.

Case in point: Iraq vet (and teabagger) David Bellavia’s been calling local Conservative Party chair Ralph Lorigo, trying to scarf up the Cons’ nomination. Crazy Jack Davis has been doing the same, but Lorigo didn’t speak highly of him. Lorigo is responsible for Erie County, which carries the most weight in the 26th district. His Monroe County counterpart, Tom Cook, is the second biggest cheese, and says he’s also gotten calls from Bellavia, Corwin, and, believe it or not, nominal Dem frontrunner Kathy Hochul. Cook didn’t have kind words about Bellavia, but he noted the obvious truth: state party chair Michael Long is going to make all the decisions, and he appears to be leaning hard toward Corwin.

• OR-01: Rep. David Wu apologized for his behavior and said he’s getting treatment (including medication) for whatever ails him… but that he has no plans to step down. Meanwhile, 2010 GOP challenger Rob Cornilles (who lost by 13 points last year) is being talked up for another run but hasn’t decided yet.

• UT-02: The NRCC has an ad up (yes, already) attacking Jim Matheson over spending, but NWOTSOTB, so I’m guessing this is what Nathan Gonzales would call a “video press release.”

• Philly Mayor: Wealthy businessman Tom Knox says he won’t challenge Mayor Michael Nutter – and in fact, went ahead and endorse Nutter. It looks like the incumbent is probably set to cruise in the Democratic primary.

• Crossroads GPS: The Karl Rove dark money front group is launching a $450K radio ad buy, attacking a dozen Dems on spending and supporting ten Republicans. Full list at the link.

One less potential open seat for Dems to worry about:

Congressman Joe Courtney said Monday he would not run for U.S. Senate in 2012.

In a statement release Monday morning, Courtney said: “I am truly grateful for the tremendous encouragement and enthusiastic support I have received from leaders across Connecticut as I have considered this question. I look forward to working with all of those who reached out to create a strong future for our state. After careful deliberation, however, I have decided to focus on my work as a Congressman and will decline to enter the race for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate.”.

So far, U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy and former Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz have announced they will run for the seat now held by Joseph Lieberman, who is not seeking re-election.

This most immediately seems to be a boon to Murphy, as Courtney cuts a more similar profile to him than Bysiewicz and thus would likely have siphoned off more of Murphy’s vote than Bysie’s.

So says Dan Nowicki of the Arizona Republic:

Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., will announce Monday that he will run for the U.S. Senate being vacated by Sen. Jon Kyl, a source has told The Arizona Republic.

Flake, who was first elected to Congress in 2000, has long expressed interest in running for the Senate. He will make it official at an 8 a.m. news conference at the same Phoenix hotel where Kyl on Thursday announced that he will retire when his current term ends in January 2013.

The Hotline’s Sean Sullivan points out that Flake has $627K in his House campaign account. Flake’s 6th CD would become the third open seat this cycle (not counting the resignations in CA-36 and NY-26), and of course, we can’t really predict what this district will look like after Arizona’s redistricting comission finishes its work. But it’s pretty brutally red (McCain 61%, though that was actually worse than Bush), so there probably won’t be a lot of open seat excitement in this corner of the state.

UPDATE: It’s official. This is what he’s focusing on, at least for now:

Flake says his priorities include balancing the federal government’s budget, securing the border and working on transportation and water policy issues.

Flake says broader action is needed on illegal immigration than just border security but that border security “needs to be the focus.”

On the budget, Flake says everything needs to be on the table, including possible changes to Social Security. But he said changes shouldn’t apply to current beneficiaries.

From the Politico:

Sen. Jon Kyl will announce his plans to retire at a press conference in Arizona later today, a source confirms to POLITICO.

Kyl’s retirement could make this into a competitive race, depending on who pulls the trigger for Team Blue. (Kyl’s own numbers were fairly strong against a number of high-profile Dems.) More as we get it.

UPDATE: 6th CD GOP Rep. Jeff Flake is very likely to enter the race in the coming days. The Politico has some comments from a few other possibilities, including Brock Landers himself:

Former Rep. John Shadegg told POLITICO he was “very surprised” at the news and called Kyl’s retirement “a loss for Arizona and a loss for the nation.”

“I hope that the rumors are wrong. I hope Jon Kyl is running again,” he said, declining to discuss his interest in the seat.

Reached on his cell phone, first-term Rep. Ben Quayle said he had no comment on Kyl’s plans, accused the reporter of calling the wrong number and then hung up.

In a text message, former Rep. J.D.  Hayworth wrote, “stay tuned.”

ANOTHER UPDATE: Real Clear Politics reports that Janet Napolitano (Democratic ex-Gov. and current DHS Sec.) has been calling around about the race. It also mentions the possibility of GOP Gov. Jan Brewer, who’s termed-out and can’t run again in 2014… and since every other Rep. in the state has been mentioned, Trent Franks too. Via the Twitter, there’s word of two more guys who’ve been hitting the phones: Democratic Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon, and Republican Maricopa Co. Sheriff Joe Arpaio (the repellent Arpaio, who’s in his 70s, seems to threaten to run statewide every two years and then not do it, though).

Holy cow, that was fast. In mid-afternoon, it comes out that Chris Lee sent some schmaltzy beefcake photos of himself to some lady on Craigslist other than his wife; by evening, he’s already resigned. (Whatever happened to courageously gutting it out, like David Vitter and John Ensign?)

Married NY-26 Rep. Chris Lee has just announced that he is resigning in the wake of scandal set off by a damning Gawker report of him scamming on chicks on Craigslist….

“The challenges we face in Western New York and across the country are too serious for me to allow this distraction to continue, and so I am announcing that I have resigned my seat in Congress effective immediately.”

So much for my earlier proclamations that this wasn’t going to endanger his political career. Oh, well, as a wag on Twitter said (regarding his half-assed identity-obscuring efforts on Craigslist):

Now he can be exactly what he had pretended to be — a divorced lobbyist.

It looks like Andrew Cuomo will be left to call a special election in NY-26, an R+6 district that stretches from the Buffalo suburbs to the Rochester suburbs. With this suddenly on the redistricting chopping block, though, will anyone bother to run? (And you know who’s gotta be the happiest about this happening? NY-25’s Ann Marie Buerkle!) Will we see another Dem primary standoff between Jon Powers and crazy Jack Davis? (Refer back to our 2008 archives if that doesn’t ring a bell.)

UPDATE: In case you were wondering if there were a way for this to get even more hilarious:

A source close to former guv cand Carl Paladino, who is from the district, tells me he’s being “heavily lobbied” to run in a special.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Here’s a big handy list of potential candidates, in addition to Paladino (for whom being one of 435 may be too small a canvas for his expansive ego):

For the GOP:

• Erie Co. Exec. Chris Collins (who got a bit of gubernatorial buzz in 2010)

• state Sen. George Maziarz (can’t see the GOP being happy with the possibility of risking losing their new state Senate majority, though)

• state Sen. Michael Ranzenhofer

• Assemblywoman Jane Corwin

• Assemblyman Jim Hayes

• Assemblyman and Monroe Co. GOP chair Bill Reilich

• Monroe Co. Exec. Maggie Brooks

• Ex-Assemblyman Jack Quinn (the son of the former Buffalo-area GOP Rep.)

• Ex-Rep. Tom Reynolds (one reporter says he’s getting “antsy” as a lobbyist, and maybe the stench of l’affaire Mark Foley has worn off)

For the Dems:

• Erie Co. Comptroller Mark Poloncarz

• Eric Co. Clerk Kathy Hochul

And if you’re wondering about the special election process, the Governor must call a special election (because this happened so early in the term, it’s not comparable to how David Paterson was essentially able to pocket-veto a NY-29 special election in the wake of Eric Massa’s resignation until November). The Gov still has discretion about when he calls it, though, and there’s a fast turnaround, with the election happening 30-40 days after the Gov’s call. As you probably remember from the debacles (for the GOP) in the NY-20 and NY-23 special elections, the nominees are chosen by a weighted vote of the county party committees, rather than by primary.

The first resignation of the 112th Congress:

California Rep. Jane Harman (D) will resign from Congress, according to two senior Democratic leadership aides, a surprise announcement that will set off a special election in her 36th district.

NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, who broke the news of Harman’s resignation, has reported that the California Congresswoman will take over as director of the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. That job is currently held by former Indiana Rep. Lee Hamilton (D).

This district went for Obama 64-34 and Kerry 59-40, almost identical to the numbers in CA-10, which saw a special election last year to replace the departing Ellen Tauscher. In that race at the other end of the state, Dems held on with a closer-than-desirable 10% (but for 2010, I’ll take it). In recent years, Harman had twice faced primary challenges from the left from liberal activist Marcy Winograd, but Winograd never came close – Harman’s unbelievable personal wealth (worth something like $200 million) and good connections kept her safe.

Harman also faced a pretty hefty scandal last year – she was accused of offering to help reduce espionage charges against politically-connected lobbyists in exchange for assistance in lobbying Nancy Pelosi for the top spot on the intelligence committee. Pelosi never did appoint Harman to the post, an incident cited as evidence of the frosty relationship between the two. I’m willing to speculate that that – being on the outs with House leadership – combined with being deep in the minority and not knowing what your district will look like in a year’s time, was the motivating factor in Harman’s departure.

L.A. City Councilwoman Janice Hahn (who lost the Lt. Gov. Dem primary to Gavin Newsom last year) has in the past told people she’s interested in running for Harman’s seat. Given that Hahn brought this up while Harman was still in office, I wonder if she had any reason to believe Harman would soon be leaving. Anyhow, I’m sure we’ll hear other names soon. Also note that this race will be held under California’s new “top-two” jungle-type primary rules (voted into place by ballot proposition last fall). This means that all candidates face off in a single primary, and the top two vote-getters move on to the second round.

UPDATE: While House vacancies in California usually unleash a torrent of state legislators looking to move up, thanks to the state’s term limits law, but that may not be the case here: the state Senate district that overlaps most of CA-36 is SD-28, currently vacant with the October death of Jenny Oropeza (whom you might remember from losing the CA-37 special election primary to Laura Richardson a few years ago). The two Assembly members in the district are both pretty new (Betsy Butler in AD-53, elected in 2010, and Bonnie Lowenthal in AD-54, elected in 2008), leaving the most prominent local legislator an ex-legislator: Ted Lieu, who just got termed out of AD-53 and is currently running in the special election in SD-28. SoS Debra Bowen also represented SD-28 until 2006, so conceivably she could make a run here, but she may be eyeing something else statewide as her next move. (On the Republican side, most likely we’ll see a candidacy from Tom McClintock.)

Jerry Brown must call the special election for within 112 to 126 days after the vacancy is declared.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Wow, here’s some evidence that Debra Bowen is heading toward this race, post haste: her campaign consultant is already saying that she is “very, very seriously considering running.”

One other interesting consideration we didn’t mention: Harman is a Blue Dog, one of the few from a suburban district and, of all the Blue Dogs, the one with the fourth bluest district (CA-36’s D+12 puts her slightly behind GA-13’s David Scott, CA-29’s Adam Schiff, and CA-43’s Joe Baca). Harman’s departure, on top of the onslaught suffered by Blue Dogs in red southern districts, means that the ranks of the Blue Dogs will be down to 25, down from 54 before the 2010 election.

YET ANOTHER UPDATE: And we have our first announced candidate already: it’s Los Angeles city councilor Janice Hahn. Hahn’s been trying to move up for a long time now: she ran for the Lt. Gov. nomination in 2010 (losing to Gavin Newsom), but way back in 1998, when CA-36 was an open seat, she ran and lost against GOPer Steve Kuykendall. (Harman, first elected here in 1992, had vacated to run for Governor; she came back and won her old seat back from Kuykendall in 2000.) Kuykendall may be the GOP’s best bet here if he decides to run (he ran for AD-55 in 2004 and lost, so he may still be looking to get back in the game), but through a mix of boundary-moving in 2002 and bluening of the suburbs, this is a much safer Dem district than it was in 1998.

A big break for Claire McCaskill:

Rep. Sam Graves will not run against Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) in 2012, the Missouri Republican announced Thursday, saying it was “an agonizing decision.”

“However, I also believe that I can have a greater impact on federal policy in the next six years as a chairman in the House,” the House Small Business chairman said in a statement. “I am the first chairman in the history of the sixth Congressional district and there is much I still want to accomplish in Washington.”

Translation: I’d rather be a big kahuna in the House than risk trading that for a back-bench seat in the Senate, where we might not even regain the majority. Of course, there’s still no shortage of GOPers lining up to take  on McCaskill – and indeed, the fundraising is starting strong, as Reid Wilson observes, with Ed Martin pulling in $229K in December alone, while Sarah Steelman collected $208K.

So even without Graves, McCaskill is likely to draw a strong opponent. That, combined with Missouri’s reddening, has to have the incumbent praying for a truly epic cat fud fight. All the more so, since McCaskill apparently has a political deathwish:

McCaskill, D-Mo., this morning joined with Republican senators in a far-reaching anti-deficit plan that could impose cuts on Social Security, Medicare and spending programs vital to Americans.

“This is a bold step; it has risks. If this bill is distorted and twisted, it could cost me my Senate seat,” McCaskill said on the Senate floor.

Make no mistake about it: McCaskill is signing up on a plan to cut Medicare and Social Security – and pretty much everything else. This is retarded and wrong on so, so many levels. It also shows how poor her political skills are, because a) it won’t take any “distorting or twisting” for her opponents to argue that she wants to cut these programs – that’s exactly what the CAP Act is designed to do; b) uh, of course the GOP will lie about McCaskill – they successfully cast themselves as the defenders of Medicare against evil, evil Democratic cuts last cycle, and this will be no different, even if it is Bob Corker’s bill; and c) of course the GOP will tar McCaskill as a big-spending libruhl regardless of what she does. She’s even making it easy for them:

She continued: “TARP? Let’s be honest. It was a genius decision in many ways and it stabilized our economy.”

TARP was genius. Jesus christ. I don’t think “I voted for it before I voted against it” was as bad. I don’t like where this is going one bit.

If true, this is going to be a titanic clash:

Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.) will announce Saturday he is challenging Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.).

“It’s happening Saturday,” said a knowledgeable Montana GOP political operative. “He’s running. There is a lot of support and enthusiasm back home, and Denny knows he can win.”

And some internal polling, including a weird three-way matchup:

The operative offered some internal Rehberg polling numbers showing the Montana Republican in a statistical tie with Tester in a prospective 2012 matchup.

The Opinion Diagnostics survey of 400 likely Montana voters showed 49 percent backing Rehberg compared with 43 percent for Tester and 8 percent undecided. In a three-way matchup featuring Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer running as an independent, Rehberg led 44 percent to Tester’s 28 percent and Schweitzer’s 18 percent. Eleven percent were undecided.

The poll, conducted Jan. 5, has a margin of error of 4.65 percent.

SSP is on the verge of publishing our senate race ratings, and internally, we’d already agreed that MT-Sen was a Tossup prior to this announcement. This news confirms our view that this race will definitely start life as a Tossup.

• MO-Sen: Most likely you already saw this story yesterday, but the big story in the Missouri Senate race is that Politico’s Dave Catanese seems to be the recipient of various leaks that ex-Sen. Jim Talent will announce soon that he isn’t going to run for Senate. We won’t start jumping up and down and honking our clown horn until we actually hear it from Talent, but this isn’t a surprise, based on previous rumors out of the Show Me State and Talent’s seeming decision to focus on hitching his wagon to Mitt Romney’s star instead. Without a dominant establishment candidate in the field, it looks like even more GOPers are starting to sniff out the race: MO-08 Rep. Jo Ann Emerson is now on the record as at least “considering” a run. Emerson, who’s had some mavericky moments in the House, would easily be the most moderate GOPer in the field if she ran (and may see a path there, with multiple tea partiers seeming poised to cannibalize each others’ votes). Emerson’s potential departure would create an open seat in the currently R+15 8th, an area that actually went for Bill Clinton but has fallen off the cliff for Dems in recent years, most recently with the fizzle of the touted Tommy Sowers campaign last year.

• NJ-Sen: PPP, while “cleaning out their fridge” as they said, found some week-old GOP Senate primary numbers from their New Jersey sample. They find state Sen. and 2006 candidate Tom Kean Jr. in good shape, with support from both moderates (which is probably what he would qualify as) and conservatives; he leads Lou Dobbs 42-30 with Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno at 7, “someone else” at 6, and 15 undecided.

• KY-Gov: Filing day came and went without any last-minute shenanigans in Kentucky. Steve Beshear will get a totally free ride in the Democratic primary (looks like that primary from the scrap metal dealer didn’t materialize), and will face one of three GOP opponents: state Senate president David Williams, teabagging businessman Phil Moffett, or Jefferson Co. Clerk Bobbie Holsclaw. The general election field in the AG race is already set; Jack Conway and Todd P’Pool didn’t draw any primary challengers. The most activity seems to be in the Ag Commissioner race (vacated by Richie Farmer, who’s running for Lt. Gov.), with 5 Dems and 2 GOPers running.

• MN-08: This probably isn’t a surprise, but after his upset loss last year, 76-year-old Jim Oberstar has decided to opt for retirement rather than a rerun against new Rep. Chip Cravaack. Two other high-profile Dems, Duluth mayor Don Ness and state Sen. Tony Lourey have also recently said no. Two DFLers who are considering the race, though, are Duluth-based state Sen. Roger Reinert and Daniel Fanning, Al Franken’s deputy state director.

• Omaha mayor: Omaha mayor Jim Suttle narrowly survived a recall attempt in last night’s special election. He won 51-49. Suttle vows to do a better job of communicating with voters in the election’s wake, although it remains an open question whether he runs again in 2013.

• Redistricting: Here’s a new wrinkle in the fight over the Fair Districts initiatives in Florida: Rick Scott seems to be stalling implementation of the new standards (which would limit the state legislature’s ability to gerrymander districts). The state “quietly withdrew” its request that the federal DOJ approve implementation of the initiatives, which jeopardizes whether they’ll be in place in time for the actual business of redistricting. Florida, as a one-time part of the Deep South, is one of those states that requires DOJ preclearance for changes to its electoral regime under the Voting Rights Act.

Politico also has an interesting article today about the Congressional Black Caucus and redistricting, which will reshape many of their districts, seeing as how some of their members’ districts have had the biggest population losses of any districts in the nation (OH-11, MI-13, MI-14, and MO-01 in particular). These districts seem like they can absorb some suburban votes without losing their lopsided Dem advantages, but they’re probably more worried about members getting pitted against each other (as might happen with the two Detroit districts) or against another Dem (possible for Marcia Fudge and Lacy Clay). Other lingering questions are whether Sanford Bishop’s GA-02 (the only CBC-held district that’s legitimately swingy) gets shored up or made worse, and whether South Carolina can be compelled to eke out a second VRA seat.

• Turnout models: I rarely get the chance to say this, but if you look at only one scatterplot today, it should be this one. It’s a remarkably-clear slope showing how predictable presidential approval is across demographic groups, and more evidence that the swing in the 2010 election was uniform across groups in response to macro factors (i.e. the stupid economy) rather than a failure of microtargeting. And here are some further thoughts on the matter from Larry Sabato’s new book, pointing out the really steep dropoffs in 2010 turnout for the groups I tend to label the “casual voters” (reliably Dem lower-information voters, mostly young and/or people of color, who turn out for presidential races but not the less compelling stuff in between), and how the 2010 model isn’t anything like what the 2012 model will resemble.